The Blades were imperious against Yeovil. " a suggestion that the Blades can score 3 or 4" certainly came to fruition with a 4-0 win.
Mallorca did not score first and reactive traders would have layed Sociedad after they scored first. I did mention an inference that the Copa Del Rey is not Sociedad's top priority. I have said it before, and it deserves repeating, that you must decide whether you are an opinion based trader ( Mallorca likely to score first so I will back them pre match and trade off if they score first) or a reactive trader ( I have in my mind the idea that Mallorca will score first, but will react by laying Sociedad -or backing Mallorca- if Sociedad unexpectedly score first).
Reactive trading may offer limited opportunities because in most matches things go as predicted, but its advantages are clear. You are always backing/laying at value odds - ALWAYS!
1pm - Karabukspor v Unyespor - 1.28 home - top flight v Division 3 KG and one of the lesser lights of the top flight in Turkey. These Cup matches so far have gone with the odds.
330pm - Trabzonspor v Gungorenspor - 1.17 home - a hope Trab can replicate the 4-1 scoreline in exactly the same priced Bursaspor yesterday. Top flight v Division 2. Trab have won their last 3 matches scoring 4-2-2. Gung have only 1 win in their last 12 matches overall, and that was 0-1 in their last match, a cup match and it took an 87th minute goal against a Division 3 BG team. This looks one of the more likely, at quick glance, for 4+ goals from Trab , to replicate Bursaspor and Galatasary yesterday.
5pm - Olympiakos v Thrasivoulos Filis - 1.06 home - and another opportunity to try out my sub 1.2 theory. Division 1 v Division 2 and Thras will want to replicate Doxas recent 0-0 shut out against Oly. This is dour Greek football and that 1.06 is logically layable in the hope the mighty Oly find a bunch of Greek Bus parkers. Minimal liability and massive upside. Likely to be a cruise for Oly but their cup exploits of times gone by have seen some struggles.
6pm - Besiktas v Gaziantep BB - 1.21 home - Besiktas have scored 5 and 3 to no reply in last 2 Cup meetings with this lot. Another win to nil beckons?Besiktas have kept a clean sheet in last 3 matches in the league so perfect preparation for a correct score to nil. 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 goers today?
7pm - Panionios v Panathinaikos - 1.7 away - both top flight and I prefer Cup matches with gaps in leagues. On 4 occasions in head to heads have we seen a 2-1 Panathanaikos win. On the other occasions 1-1 and 2-0, which leads the lazyman, with minimal research, to dutch 1-2, 1-1, 0-2 correct scores in favour of the away side. This is the Cup , and all head to heads recently have been in the league.
745pm - Birmingham v Ipswich - 1.56 home - Championship match.
HEAD TO HEADS are irrelevant
| 26.12.2008 | LCh | Ipswich Town | 0-1 | Birmingham City | |
| 25.11.2008 | LCh | Birmingham City | 2-1 | Ipswich Town | |
| 01.01.2007 | LCh | Ipswich Town | 1-0 | Birmingham City |
LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 20th and Brum have played 23, Ipswich 24, and the rest generally 25 matches. Interestingly, if Brum win their 2 games in hand, they could be as high as 5th placed!
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Birmingham
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWWDDWWDW - unbeaten at home this season. Have beaten 21st, 23rd and 24th 3 of 4 draws 1-1. Have conceded a maximum of 1 goal at home. If they score 2 , then they win.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDLDWDLLWLDWD - defeats were all away, 2 of last 3 1-0 defeats.Last 4 draws have been score draws.
GOAL TRENDS - 36% overs at home. Average 0.45 conceded at home. That's where the strengths lie.Only 1 of the last 4 overs. Have only failed to score in 4 this season.Have scored most goals, 12 in last 1/4 hour of matches.
STREAKS - 11 at home without defeat. Have scored in last 5 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Ipswich
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDWDLLLWDL - bottom 11 sides away equals goals galore. Brum just creep into that category but they do not have a habit for goals at home. Some away matches scorelines for Ipswich, 4-0 loss , 7-1 loss, 3-5 win, 0-3 win, 4-1 loss, 3-2 loss.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWLLLLLLLWWDLL - terrible recent run but a feeling Ipswich have tried to stop the goals. with 3-5 win, 1-0 win, 1-1 draw, 1-0 loss, and 1-3 loss. Yes goals crept in last match.
GOAL TRENDS - 58% overs away from home. I expected a higher %. Conceded 2.25 away on average. 3 of last 4 unders emphasises Ipswich's short lived defensive exercise!Ipswich conceded 10 and 12 in last quarter hours of each half.
STREAKS - have conceded in last 7 away. No win in 3 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - tight home defence plays an away side whose matches can be goal laden. Who will out today? Advantage unbeaten Brum at home, worse case for them is a draw. Ipswich are one of those dangerous trading teams from a goals perspective at least. It could easily be overs or unders.
FORM LAB
• +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Ipswich away matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Ipswich such matches. Birmingham have scored first in 7/11 home matches.
Form Lab has pinned its flag to the mast.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1st - Home 2nd half win v all
1st - Home 2nd half win v all
2nd - Home score last v All
3rd - Home 2nd half win v Bottom half.
745pm - Man City v Liverpool - 2.06 home - Carling Cup match. Only 3 draws since 2004 for Man City in the Carling Cup perhaps reveals the mentality for this competition.
City have beaten last 2 Premiership sides in full time . And their 2 defeats at home were against Premiership top teams.
Only 3 draws since 2004 for Liverpool.
| Mon | 25/10/04 | LEC | Millwall | 0 - 3 | Liverpool | More info | |
| Tue | 30/11/04 | LEC | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 - 1P | Liverpool | More info | |
| Mon | 24/01/05 | LEC | Watford | 0 - 1 | Liverpool | More info | |
| Mon | 24/10/05 | LEC | Crystal Palace | 2 - 1 | Liverpool | More info | |
| Tue | 07/11/06 | LEC | Birmingham City | 0 - 1 | Liverpool | More info | |
| Tue | 25/09/07 | LEC | Reading | 2 - 4 | Liverpool | More info | |
| Wed | 19/12/07 | LEC | Chelsea | 2 - 0 | Liverpool | View events | More info |
| Wed | 12/11/08 | LEC | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 - 2 | Liverpool | View events | More info |
| Tue | 22/09/09 | LEC | Leeds United | 0 - 1 | Liverpool | View events | More info |
| Wed | 28/10/09 | LEC | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Liverpool | View events | More info |
| Wed | 24/08/11 | LEC | Exeter City | 1 - 3 | Liverpool | View events | More info |
| Wed | 21/09/11 | LEC | Brighton & Hov… | 1 - 2 | Liverpool | View events | More info |
| Wed | 26/10/11 | LEC | Stoke City | 1 - 2 | Liverpool | View events | More info |
| Tue | 29/11/11 | LEC | Chelsea | 0 - 2 | Liverpool |
Only 1 draw away for Liverpool too . Suggest we lay the draw based solely on these stats. Tough to call with both sides in good recent form in this Carling Cup
745pm - Tottenham v Everton - 1.6 home - Premiership match.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 05.01.2011 | PR | Everton FC | 2-1 | Tottenham | |
| 23.10.2010 | PR | Tottenham | 1-1 | Everton FC | |
| 28.02.2010 | PR | Tottenham | 2-1 | Everton FC | |
| 06.12.2009 | PR | Everton FC | 2-2 | Tottenham | |
| 27.10.2009 | LC | Tottenham | 2-0 | Everton FC | |
| 09.05.2009 | PR | Everton FC | 0-0 | Tottenham |
Spurs have not lost in home clashes, with a win and draw in last 2 Premiership home matches.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 11th. Spurs must be excited breaking the 40point marker and will remain 3rd with a win ( albeit same points as United but 13 goal difference negative)
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team -Spuds
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWWDW - loss v City and draw v Chelsea. A suggestion of an ability to cope outside of the top 10. 5 of the wins were to nil.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWWWLWDWDW - Xmas fixture list saw 2 1-1 results at home to Chelsea and away at Swansea. Recent defeat was away to Stoke.
GOAL TRENDS -56% overs away from home. Average nearly 2 goals scored in all matches this season. Last 5 Spurs games under 2.5 goals not quite in keeping with their reputation. 5 of last 9 matches have seen alternate clean sheets .Have scored in all matches bar the first match of the season.
STREAKS - 8 at home without defeat. Have scored in last 9 and last 18 overall. No defeat in 5 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team- Everton
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLWLWLDW - Have lost away to all top 7 away.Wins have come against bottom 7.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLWWLLDWDWL - Good recent December run but against the likes of Norwich, Swansea, Sunderland and WBA, teams I would class as having a distinctly "Champioship" feel about them.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home. Lost 2-0 away to 1st, 3-1 to 4th, 1-0 to 5th and 2-1 to 7th. Which way will it swing today? 7 of last 8 matches under 2.5 goals. Recent everton matches have seen these scorelines. 0-1 home loss, 1-0 away loss, 1-1 home draw, 1-0 home win, 1-1 away draw, 0-1 away win, 1-2 home loss.
STREAKS - no defeat in 2 away. Have scored in last 5 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - The incentive to push on must be overwhelming for Spurs and they can react in 2 ways. Either they will freeze with nerves or will realise their potential and push for 2nd place. Spurs do not concede more than 1 at home, so we can work potential correct scores around this. 2-1, 1-1, 2-0 spring to mind. It incorporates both overs and unders as the goal trends are incongruous. Everton's away form suggests struggles against the cream of the crop.
8pm - Espanyol v Cordoba - 1.47 home - Spanish Cup - 2-1 to Cordoba in the first leg but a match full of incident saw Espanyol score first, get a man sent off, , Cordoba miss a penalty and then score 2 80+ minute goals to exploit the missing man. Expect a different match tonight , a match in which espanyol need a 1-0 minimum to stay in the tie. They scored first in the first leg, and Cordoba took 80 minutes, largely against 10 men, to score. Advantage espanyol for me, if they have an interest in the Cup.
| Wed | 21/01/09 | CDR | Espanyol | 0 - 0 | Barcelona | More info | |
| Thu | 29/01/09 | CDR | Barcelona | 3 - 2 | Espanyol | View events | More info |
| Wed | 28/10/09 | CDR | Getafe | 2 - 0 | Espanyol | View events | More info |
| Wed | 11/11/09 | CDR | Espanyol | 1 - 1 | Getafe | View events | More info |
| Wed | 27/10/10 | CDR | Real Valladolid | 0 - 2 | Espanyol | View events | More info |
| Tue | 09/11/10 | CDR | Espanyol | 1 - 1 | Real Valladolid | View events | More info |
| Wed | 22/12/10 | CDR | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 0 | Espanyol | View events | More info |
| Thu | 06/01/11 | CDR | Espanyol | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid | View events | More info |
| Tue | 13/12/11 | CDR | Celta de Vigo | 0 - 0 | Espanyol | More info | |
| Tue | 20/12/11 | CDR | Espanyol | 4 - 2 | Celta de Vigo | View events | More info |
| Thu | 05/01/12 | CDR | Córdoba | 2 - 1 | Espanyol |
Losses only against top flight sides.
| Wed | 12/11/08 | CDR | Espanyol | 3 - 0 | Celta de Vigo | View events | More info |
| Wed | 14/01/09 | CDR | Espanyol | 1 - 0 | CP Ejido | View events | More info |
| Wed | 21/01/09 | CDR | Espanyol | 0 - 0 | Barcelona | More info | |
| Wed | 11/11/09 | CDR | Espanyol | 1 - 1 | Getafe | View events | More info |
| Tue | 09/11/10 | CDR | Espanyol | 1 - 1 | Real Valladolid | View events | More info |
| Thu | 06/01/11 | CDR | Espanyol | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid | View events | More info |
| Tue | 20/12/11 | CDR | Espanyol | 4 - 2 | Celta de Vigo |
Tough to beat at home in the Copa Del Rey - 1-1 not required today by espanyol.
| Wed | 03/09/08 | CDR | Tenerife | 2 - 1 | Córdoba | More info | |
| Wed | 02/09/09 | CDR | Real Betis | 1 - 2 | Córdoba | More info | |
| Tue | 09/11/10 | CDR | Racing Santander | E3 - 1 | Córdoba | View events | More info |
| Wed | 05/01/11 | CDR | Deportivo La C… | E3 - 1 | Córdoba | View events | More info |
| Tue | 06/09/11 | CDR | Real Murcia | 0 - 1 | Córdoba | View events | More info |
| Wed | 21/12/11 | CDR | Real Betis | 2 - 1 | Córdoba |
2-1 generally pervades. The 3-1's were extra times.
815pm - Sp Lisbon v Nacional - 1.35 home - Portugeuse Cup. Again, not much to go on bar the odds.
THURSDAY
7pm - Ath Bilbao v Albacete - 1.31 home
8pm - Napoli v Cesena - 1.33 home
9pm - Osasuna v Barcelona - 1.4 away
FRIDAY
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