29/4

Nothing appeals in the football today so it is with the horse racing that I have concentrated. There are 2 horse races which I have reduced to the Shortlist of the shortlist. Have a look at these and you will see that one race is a maiden with 2 debutants among the 4 runners , and the 2nd race is a bumper ( which ideally needs market consultation nearer the off)

Which of the 2 appeals most for me? Well it is difficult to chose. Swish Dish represents Hannon/Hughes - has had the recent run, and is in a race where, at time of writing, there has been no market support for them .

Scoter Fontaine is the representative of Curtis/McCoy and the clincher here is the promising 4th at Punchestown when he looked like winning, the absence of 2nd favourite, the fact this is a bumper ( no jumps fences!!!) , and the fact the trainer is 4 out of 4 in bumpers at the track.

The choice is very difficult but I would have to go with Scoter Fontaine today because the 2 debutants in Swish Dish's race could be anything ( although I expect Swish Dish to win/place)

ONE A DAY 520 HEREFORD - SCOTER FONTAINE TO PLACE ONLY 1.11 currently but the market is very illiquid so do give the market some time to form

Zebedee won well . It's always a risk backing a 2 year old to replicate previous sole run especially in a 2 the place race, but Hannon is so hot at the moment .

FOOTBALL
805pm - Liverpool v Athletico Madrid - 1.64 - Europa Cup a must win now for the Fat Spanish Waiter with his "guaranteed" 4th place looking but a dream.
1-0 to Athletico in the first leg means that an away goal will make life very difficult for Liverpool. They are prices a little higher than Barcelona were yesterday, and need only a 1-0 to avoid going out in 90 minutes.
These one off matches, in particular with the away goal conundrum, makes this a tricky puzzle to solve.

HORSE RACING

I had a quick look through the card last night on my return from London and there were many 2 the place races, and imponderable handicaps which made finding a selection, at first glance, very difficult. Hopefully market movers and non runners can help free up a possible one a dayer as the football is non too appealing.

230 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tanked Up, 9/4 Novabridge, 5/1 Gartsherrie, Look´N´Listen, 10/1 Rath Maeve, 25/1 Sailor Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: TANKED UP created a fair impression on his debut when winning at Catterick last week and can get the better of Novabridge. 4 horses and 2 places now and Tanked up was a winner last time. This is a seller though and typical of the type of races found today. Just niggly enough to be offputting despite being a 50/50 race. 240 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Katy´s Secret, 9/2 Catherines Call, 5/1 First Term, 6/1 Gundaroo, Posy Fossil, 7/1 Show Willing, 12/1 Caramelita, 14/1 Mellifera, 20/1 Rosiliant. DIOMED VERDICT: KATY'S SECRET (nap) caught the eye under an inexperienced apprentice last time and should fare better now moving into handicaps for the first time. handicap debutant and these can swing either way. I have seen heavily backed handicap debutants do nothing. Of appeal is the booking of Dettori who takes over from an apprentice.6/4 - - - -5/1 in the live betting market. 300 REDCAR BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Always Dazzling, 7/2 Elle Est, Golden Ratio, 5/1 Red Scintilla, 10/1 Where´s Denton, 14/1 Director General, Forks, 33/1 Kookie, Mr Prize Fighter, 66/1 Velle Est Valere. DIOMED VERDICT: ALWAYS DAZZLING shaped well on her debut at Ayr last summer and, although not seen since, will appreciate this trip and should be too good for this ordinary lot. Another example of another niggly race. Always dazzling is the Johnston/Fanning horse and o immediate interest to me in this maiden but has not run since July 2009 when a good 2nd on debut. Faith in the excellent Fanning to get a place in a race where only 3 look to be under double figure odds. 320 HEREFORD BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Badger Foot, 3/1 Denny Mac, 7/2 Minella For Food, Over The Flow, 33/1 Haoyunma. DIOMED VERDICT: BADGER FOOT can take this en route to better things. With one clear outsider, this is another 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places - Badger Foot has McCoy onboard. Again only 2 places and chase fences and not an immediately standout horse form wise 350 HEREFORD BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Prince Des Marais, 9/4 Line Artic, 4/1 Almaydan, 5/1 Huguenot, 14/1 Tyup Pompey. DIOMED VERDICT: LINE ARTIC (nap) can fend off fellow improver Prince Des Marais. Interesting that Diomed napped Line Artic originally. Now with nearest threat Prince des Marais a non runner, surely he has a better chance of winning ( and thus placing). Only 2 places again and a handicap chase - the outsider is only 6/1 which tells you none can be discounted 410 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Decency, 4/1 Motty´s Gift, 8/1 Azaday, Singingintherain, Tamarind Hill, 10/1 Stay On Track, Tregony Bridge, 12/1 Belle Park, Chinese Democracy, Cool Kitten, 25/1 Denton Ryal. DIOMED VERDICT: MOTTY'S GIFT may have more to come in handicaps and can follow up his recent Kempton success Price gapper in the live betting market Decency 9/4 - - - 5/1 but I normally want to see price gappers in class 6 0-60 handicaps mirrored in the betting forecast too. The 7/2 shown by the Racing Post journalist hints at an open race. 440 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Swish Dish, 7/4 Round Won, 8/1 Well Overdue, 12/1 Storming Redd. DIOMED VERDICT: SWISH DISH made an encouraging return to action at Newbury and looks to have been found a good opening here. The dynamic duo return - Hannon and Hughes on Swish Dish. My argument re Zebedee yesterday applies here - this maiden has had a run 16th April 2010-a good 3rd of 11 in a class 4 - today is a class 6. Now considering Hannon maidens do well on their debuts, then we can argue that a horse with 3 maiden runs and a recent run has an improved chance of running well. The market indicates only Swish Dish and Round won are the ones to consider, being as they are the only ones under 12/1 500 BRIGHTON BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Stunning In Purple, 2/1 Johnny Hancocks, 5/2 Prophet In A Dream, 14/1 Vivre La Secret, 20/1 Bold Deceiver, DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to dismiss any of the once-raced trio but JOHNNY HANCOCKS, who showed enough on his debut to suggest that he can win a race of this nature, gets the call. Typifies the day well this race " hard to dismiss any....." 505 REDCAR BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sparkling Smile, 9/4 Gritstone, 8/1 Sharakti, 10/1 Storm Command, 14/1 High Rolling, DIOMED VERDICT: SPARKLING SMILE showed improved form to win at Beverley over this trip on quick ground last week and is fancied to defy a penalty. I flagged up Sparkling Smile here when the money came for him last time out under Ted Durcan, and he obliged. Inserted as favourite herre, there is no real signal of money coming as I write.In this 5 runner race, there are only 2 under 14/1, Sparkling smile at 4/7 and Gritstone at 11/4 - any involvement here assumes these 2 dominate as there are only 2 places. "hard to beat under penalty" says Diomed , and I must admit Ted Durcan is an ultra reliable jockey 520 HEREFORD BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Scoter Fontaine, 5/1 Wood Yer, 6/1 Bahr Nothing, 7/1 Toomyvara, 14/1 Toxic Asset, 16/1 Edlomond, 33/1 My Idea, 40/1 Bridge Street Boy, 66/1 Castle Legend, Floating Cloud. DIOMED VERDICT: SCOTER FONTAINE can give Rebecca Curtis back-to-back victories following the success of Black Jack Blues last year. 2nd fav a non runner leaves theRebecca Curtis/McCoy horse very short and clear as fav in the betting - this is becoming typical of all Curtis/McCoy horses recently. A recent bumper 4th at the Punchestown festival sees this horse fancied now at 4/9 under McCoy - the great thing is this is a bumper so there are no obstacles.BUT there are 3 debutants and 3 one time outers.A price gap of 4/9 - - - 8/1 is very appealing to me under the Champ ( albeit in a flat race) 610 HUNTINGDON BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 American Cricket, 4/1 Last One Standing, 5/1 Not A Bob, Vincitore, 8/1 Keep Talking, 14/1 Alexander Beetle. DIOMED VERDICT: AMERICAN CRICKET showed a good attitude to win a bumper and has done enough as a hurdler since to get the vote. Now odds on and a good price gapper this American Criket, but typical of today's races generally, another 2 the place race. 640 HUNTINGDON BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bid Art, 13/2 Wiesenfurst, 8/1 Lord Gunnerslake, 9/1 Safe Investment, 10/1 Laharna, 12/1 Fort Severn, 14/1 Gainsborough´s Art, Ilewin Tom, 16/1 Galley Slave, 33/1 Simplified. DIOMED VERDICT: BID ART got off the mark as a chaser in impressive fashion at Fontwell and can defy this penalty. Price gapper herre this Bid Art in a chase - penalty to carry but has been progressing and placing 3221 under Daryl Jacob SHORTLIST Not really interested in any of the football today, and as you have seen, the majority of the horse racing has a lot of niggles or 2 the place races. 300 REDCAR - Always dazzling has had a run for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning. This is important because a number of Johnston maiden debutants have ran green. This experience could be key. The concern here is that the horse has not run since July 2009. There are only 3 horses under 12/1 here . Illiquid betting market 350 HEREFORD - Line Arctic was the nap selection of Diomed even with a full compliment of runners, but with his near market rival Prince de Marais a non runner, surely this opens things up for him to place/win? Only 2 places though and the outsider is 6/1 so this does look a tight enough affair where non can be readily dismissed ( nor are they being dismissed in the live betting) 440 FOLKSTONE - well the Hannon juveniles are cleaning up, even the debutants. Swish Dish has had the recent run - 3rd of 11 and , down to class 6, is in a 4 horse race with only 2 to beat to place. There are 2 debutants who of course could be anything but there is no market support for either and they hold firm at 12/1 - of concern to me was the marked and sudden improvement by Swish Dish in her recent run compared to 2 poor efforts last year. The connections do say that she is a stronger filly this year. 520 HEREFORD - the absence of the 2nd favourite seems to have really impacted the market here and Scoter Fontaine's chances look to be enhanced now - McCoy rides again for Rebecca Curtis and the advantage here is that this is a bumper race 640 HEREFORD - 14 length winner Bid Art last time out - have we missed the opportunity? Penalty today but evens - - - - -6/1 in the live betting market SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 440 FOLKSTONE - I hate backing 2 the place races, but here we have a 50/50 chance. 4 horss and 2 places. 4/7 , 11/4 , 12/1 , 12/1 - the 4/7 shot is Swish Dish for Hannon/Hughes and must be the one to chose in this race given the connections' exceptional start to the flat season. There are 2 debutants ( the 12/1 horses) who of course, if we are getting really niggly, could be anything. The drop from class 4 to class 6 for Swish Dish, as well as a recent run, could be the clincher here - around 1.15 to place 520 HEREFORD - Scoter Fontaine was 7/2 fav in his Punchestown bumper debut and finished a reasonable 4th ( albeit OUT of the places) 2nd fav is a non runner today which seems to have shortened Scoter's price considerably. Around 1.1 to place, my concern with this race is the fact it is a bumper. Trainer is 4 from 4 in bumpers