28/4

ONE A DAY - 210 ASCOT - ZEBEDEE TO PLACE ONLY - faith in the recent run, the ultra strong connections whose season has been outstanding, and the Racing Post hack's synopsis that this will be " a penalty kick" - only 2 places and 5 furlongs the negatives, as is the fact this is this only 2 year old's second run, and these are still babies. Gicen the fact the Hannon/Hughes partnership have done so well with their 2 year old debutants, surely a 2 year old with a winning first run can be trusted to reproduce promising initial form.


Apologies for loss of message yesterday, beyond my influence. Nom de Guerre won, and nice to see Knockavilla win, particularly as I was staying in Knockavilla where my Mother grew up yesterday.


FOOTBALL


2pm - Bunyodkor v Al Wahda - 1.16 - anything sub 1.2 needs investigation as this usually means goals.
Asian Champions League- Bunyodkor can go top of their group with a win today ( albeit briefly with them having played a game in hand after this match) Why they are 1.16 is anybody's guess as it is not reflected in any dominance on the field.
They play 4th ( of 4) Al Wahda, who have played 5, won 1 and lost 4.


Head to heads 2-1 to Bunyodkor


At home, Bun have won 3-0 and lost 1-0 to the group leaders who have dominated with 3 wins, a draw and a loss.


The 3-0 came against 2nd in the group and is a good sign, perhaps, that the 1.16 may be justified.


545pm - Lech Poznan v Lechia Gdansk - 1.35 - Polish league match

Home team Lech Poznan have a home record of 9-2-1 (W-D-L) for their 12 home games this season, 29 points from a possible 36. That's a home points average of 2.42 compared to 2.00 for all games this season. Lech Poznan's recent points average is 2.00, 12 points from 6 games 3-3-0 (W-D-L) Lech Poznan's last 10 league games record reads DWWWDWDWWD (DWWWDWDWWD) while their last 10 home league games read WWWWDWWWWW (WWWWDWWWWW).

Away team Lechia Gdansk have an away record of 5-4-3 (W-D-L) for their 12 away games this season, 19 points from a possible 36. That's an away points average of 1.58 compared to 1.36 for all games this season. Lechia Gdansk's recent points average is 1.00, 6 points from games; Lechia Gdansk's last 10 league games record reads DWDDWLLDDD (DWDLWLDLDD) while their last 10 away league games readLDLWWDDWLD (DLWWDDWLWD).

Historically a tight game with a 0-0 and 1-0 win in he 2 matches in 2009.

Lechia Gdansk have won 2 of their recent 4 away matches, and drawn 3 ( I am including cup matches here,) 2 of those 0-0.

This looks a match best avoided, but betdevil ratings of 1822 v 917 indicate a potential gulf. And it must be said that Lechia have not played any side so highly rated yet so we have no collateral indication of how they might fare.

745pm - Barcelona v Inter Milan - 1.45 - is very dismissive of the Special One's abilities and scoreline at home, but is indicative of the need for goals for the home side. Barca would love to just win 2-0 and make their way to the final which where they will have a superb opportunity against Bayern.

This is Spanish attacking flare against, perhaps, Italian hold and defend?

210 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Zebedee, 13/2 Reposer, 8/1 Pick A Little, 12/1 Joe Junior, 14/1 Straight Line, 16/1 Saucy Buck, 20/1 Ocean´s Glacier.

DIOMED VERDICT: This has the look of a penalty kick for ZEBEDEE, who won with more authority than the margin suggests on this month's Windsor debut and should be very hard to beat. The odds will be decidedly skinny though. Newcomer Reposer is tentatively preferred to Kempton AW winner Pick A Little for forecast seekers. What a start to the day! Could be a one a day before I even look through the rest of the day's cards. Zebedee represents Hughes and Hannon, the hottest pair since Posh and Becks. Look at these trigger words "very hard to beat" "has the look of a penalty kick" Has already run this season and won. Is a strong price gapper , now 1/3 ( do note though that I have to start at 820am this morning so the markets have not formed) Rock hard at the head of the midday market. 255 PONTEFRACT BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Lion Mountain, 9/2 Suyoof, 6/1 Raqeeb, 8/1 Plato, 14/1 Najam, 16/1 Peaceful Soul, 25/1 Admiral Rodney, 100/1 Fantastic Favour. DIOMED VERDICT: LION MOUNTAIN should be able to get off the mark with second place up for grabs.

Lion mountain has a jockey I like, Ted Durcan , on board and Diomed does say he will be " hard to beat" but the horse was a good 2nd back in October 2009

2 debutants include the Johnston Suyoof and the market must be consulted in these maidens .I have arrived uin LKondon now so the market at midday is strong for this Lion mountain, all red and 8/11

340 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Martha Elizabeth, 6/1 River Beauty, Timoca, 8/1 Be My Light, Chip N Pin, 10/1 Tuppenny Piece, 14/1 Camino Real, Eterna, Hopeand, 25/1 Betty Browneyes, Tara Isle, 33/1 Golden Smog, 50/1 My Clementine,

DIOMED VERDICT: Irish runner MARTHA ELIZABETH has shaped well as a hurdler and makes appeal with Tony McCoy up. Price gapper here but again no live market as yet with which to confirm. 13/8 in places with the next best at 7/1 -this is a strong price gapper and has the CHampion jockey on board. - placed 2nd and 3rd last twice in maiden hurdles 430 ASCOT BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Our Jonathan, 9/2 Society Rock, 11/2 Mon Cadeaux, 13/2 Corporal Maddox, Iver Bridge Lad, 8/1 Absolute Music, Edinburgh Knight, 14/1 Shearman, 16/1 Reignier. DIOMED VERDICT: OUR JONATHAN won four times from six outings as a juvenile and should have enough improvement in him to defy a 7lb penalty back at Listed level. Society Rock may emerge as the chief threat.

Our Jonathan looks a good colt , his 2 year old form is extremely strong. Back in listed company and not run since November - has perennial hold up merchant Frank Spencer on board -some hate his style ( ME!!!), some love it.

Again, needs market consultation given the absences of the main principals. Our Jonathan maintains unstready favouratism at midday but it is Society Rock who has come in for support.

550 KELSO

As I am using a borrowed PC I cannot copy and paste the betting forecast. Al Quedaaf is the horse of interest here in this maiden hurdle.in a race where only 3 are under 14/1. McCain/Maguire combo - I trust these 2 and solid enough form in better company last time.

605 KEMPTON

Again, I cannot paste the betting forecast. Here the fav Athenian Garden for Henry Cecil and Tom Queally is now solid 7/4 , all red, favourite and has that important recent run

SHORTLIST

The expectation in the football this evening is for Barcelona to attempt to score 2 goals to no reply. Perhaps over 1.5 goals is a good bet tonight? It is a difficult game to call as we don't know Inter's tactics ( they just really need an away goal ) and Barca must score 2 minimum .
The fact there is an Inter +1.5 goals market means that Betfair expects.
1.22 for over 1.5 goals therefore is interesting in the hope of all out attack. If Inter score first, then we can be assured the bet will come in as Barca need to score to reply.

210 ASCOT - first race at Ascot and a "penalty kick " for Zebedee? 1.4 to win and 1.17 to place ( relatively high for a penalty kick horse who is " very hard to beat" because it is 2 places only)
Very enticing this one.

We face the old conundrum today of horses coming back from running some months previously. Zebedee has the recent run, and represents a stable whose 2 year olds are all offspring of Pegasus!!

Slight drift to 4/11 from 1/3 but next best is 12/1. Looks an outstanding bet. Slight niggles - 2 places and 5 furlongs - we have seen recently a few go down thanks to tardiness over the minimum distance and an inability to get back.