30/4

I have whittled my choices to 2 races in Cork this evening and one football match this evening.

All have their persuasive points and all have their niggles.
HIGH AWARD - 2 year old 5 furlong sprint and only 2 places
AWE INSPIRING - competitive head of the market and sharing favouratism
RAPID VIENNA - drew 2-2 away to this opposition as recently as March 2010
Positives?
HIGH AWARD - now 4/11 in places and backed steadily all morning - impressive winning debut over this distance - "already looks a stakes horse" and Murtagh on board
AWE INSPIRING - 2 2nds, including over this distance and a likely Ballydoyle improver. Joint fav has only had one run at 7 furlongs -today is 10furlongs
RAPID VIENNA - look below and quite clear on head to heads at home. Ability to have scored 2 away from home signals they may lead at some stage tonight. They were 2-1 up that game and succumbed to a 90th minute equaliser.

ONE A DAY - 730pm- Rapid Vienna v SK Kapfenberg -BACK RAPID VIENNA IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.18 This match is in running so I would advise trading if RApid lead at any stage. THe choice is yours but the 2-2 draw last time ( even though conceded in the 90th minute) is a little offputting



Guess what happened in the maiden? Yes, one of the outsiders and debutants, Storming shed, pushed Swish Dish out of the places. So a good call to go with Scoter Fontaine .

FOOTBALL
4pm - NK Croatia Sesvete v NK Zagreb - 1.26 away side -

Home team Cr Sesvete Z have a home record of 2-3-8 (W-D-L) for their 13 home games this season, 9 points from a possible 39. That's a home points average of 0.69 compared to 0.52 for all games this season. Cr Sesvete Z's recent points average is 0.50, 3 points from 6 games 1-0-5 (W-D-L) Cr Sesvete Z's last 10 league games record reads LWLDLLWLLL (LWLDLLWLLL) while their last 10 home league games read LDLDLLWLWL (DLLDLLWLWL).

Away team Zagreb have an away record of 1-2-10 (W-D-L) for their 13 away games this season, 5 points from a possible 39. That's an away points average of 0.38 compared to 1.00 for all games this season. Zagreb's recent points average is 1.33, 8 points from games; Zagreb's last 10 league games record reads DLWDLDLWDW (DLWDLDLWDW) while their last 10 away league games read LLDLLWLLLD (WDLLWLLLLD).

With such a poor record away from home, for Zagreb to be 1.26 shots, surely the home team must be playing with blindfolds on?

Zagreb have the clear advantage in terms of head to heads, but away form generally points at them losing rather than winning!!

Ratings - Home side 307, Zagreb 843.

I would be happier laying the home side here as they have a propensity to draw but not necessarily beat opposition rated around Zagreb

5pm - Osnabruck v Holstein Kiel - 1.26 - German 3rd tier and we need to tread carefully because Bet devil do not offer a league table ( at this time of year, perhaps Osnabruck have won the title/ have nothing to play for etc)

Home team Osnabruck have a home record of 14-3-1 (W-D-L) for their 18 home games this season, 45 points from a possible 54. That's a home points average of 2.50 compared to 1.75 for all games this season. Osnabruck's recent points average is 1.67, 10 points from 6 games 3-1-2 (W-D-L) Osnabruck's last 10 league games record reads DWWDLWLWDW (DWWDLWLWDW) while their last 10 home league games read WWWWWDDDWW (WWWLWDDDWW).

Away team Holstein Kiel have an away record of 2-2-14 (W-D-L) for their 18 away games this season, 8 points from a possible 54. That's an away points average of 0.44 compared to 0.97 for all games this season. Holstein Kiel's recent points average is 1.00, 6 points from games; Holstein Kiel's last 10 league games record reads DDLDDDLDLW (DDLDDDLDLW) while their last 10 away league games read DLWLLLLLDL (DLWLLLLLDL).

Such contrasting home and away form caught my eye here in a league I would normally shun

Ratings 1434 v 683 - clear advantage for the home side. They have won their last 2 home matches 3-1 and 4-1 and there is a season long average of 2.5 goals exactly.

1-1 draw in head to heads

730pm - Rapid Vienna v SK Kapfenberg - 1.18 - sub 1.2 usually indicates goals especially from the home side. 2nd v 9th in a 10 team league, I am slightly concerned with over familiarity in this small leagues.

Rapid have won 4, drawn 1 and lost one ( against top) of their 5 home matches since returning from the winter break. The loss is the only one suffered in all matches since the break

Kapfenberg held Rapid to a 2-2 draw at their place as recently as 7th MArch.

Since the 7th March, they have not won any matches at all, drawing 4 and losing 5.

They have lost 3 and drawn 2 away from home.

8pm- Shelbourne v Mervue United - 1.26 - Mervue seem to be the whipping boys in this league, last few away results ( all losses) 2-1, 4-1, 4-1

220 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Dower Glen, Jigajig, 6/1 Your Gifted, 7/1 Seven Of Diamonds, 8/1 Blue Neptune, Ya Boy Sir, 12/1 Bombay Mist, 16/1 Classlin, Lees Anthem, 25/1 Sydney Bridge, 33/1 Kristen Jane, Stanley Bridge.

DIOMED VERDICT: YOUR GIFTED gets the verdict over Dower Glen

Dower glen is now 5/2 and well backed ( all red) here in this class 6 handicap

240 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Seyaaq, 100/30 Bit Of Bling, 9/2 Streets Of War, 6/1 Divine Call, 7/1 Perfect Point, 14/1 Caldermud, Hidden Fire, 20/1 Hounds Ditch, Suzhou, 25/1 Tudor Princess, 33/1 Blue Again, 50/1 Miss California, Rowan Light,

DIOMED VERDICT: Not much to go but the drop to 7f should not be a problem for STREETS OF WAR and he may be ableto make his experience tell in a race where the market will be interesting.

Slight interest in Streets of war in this maiden ( now vying for favouratism at 2/1 and all red) Has the experience, but there are 3 debutants 3rd,4th and 5th in the betting.

425 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Tazeez, 4/1 Suits Me, 5/1 Storm Ultralight, 11/2 Abbeyside, 20/1 Marine Boy, 25/1 Cloudy Start,

DIOMED VERDICT: Front-running Suits Me is likely to test the unproven stamina of Abbeyside and Storm Ultralight and could set the race up for TAZEEZp, who escapes a penalty for his Group 3 win last year and has a clear afvantage on these terms.

These strong market leaders coming back from a layoff have flattered to deceive in some races. Will this be the case with Tazeez - eyecatching connections and campaigned at group level when last seen in July 2009. Quite clearly a strong candidate if fully tuned up for a return to class 2 conditions race

8/11 - - - -5/1 in the live betting market so expected to be fit enough. Only 2 places and a long absence the concerns

445 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Rigidity, 7/2 Realisation, 5/1 Dandino, 6/1 Hidden Glory, 10/1 First Post, Ingleby Spirit, 14/1 First In The Queue, 20/1 Muwalla.

DIOMED VERDICT: The market should be informative with so many potential improvers but the fact that RIGIDITY held a Dante entry until not so long ago suggests he could be a bit better than your average handicapper.

The market is led by Rigidity and Hidden glory, the latter a market mover and nearly sharing favouratism at 9/4 in places ( Rigidity is 11/10)

These horses have not run since September and November respectively. This looks far too competitive a race with the likes of Realisation for Johnston who has yet to run a bad race.

500 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 High Award, 3/1 Lightening Thief, 11/2 Mr Man In The Moon, 7/1 The Munster Maori, 10/1 Lake Wanaka, 20/1 Proper Madam.

High award has been very well backed already and features at 4/9 here A 2 year old winner in MArch, only 2 places here but if the market is to be believed, under Murtagh, he has an outstanding chance of placing.

525 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Corsica, 3/1 Fairy Flight, 8/1 Bubbly Braveheart, 9/1 Layla´s Boy, 10/1 Aattash.

DIOMED VERDICT: Frankie Dettori is likely to ensure this is a true test on the improving CORSICA, who can expose possible stamina limitations among his rivals.

The Dettori/ Johnston pairing have been good so far, and Corsica is another likely contender. Niggles? All weather debut ( some horses just hate it), only 2 places.

550 BANGOR ON DEE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kanad, 7/2 Killowenabbey, Sonic Anthem, 13/2 The Randy Bishop, 20/1 Bansha, Pembo, 33/1 Alwaysablue, He´s A Sheila, 50/1 Willie Ever, 66/1 Rockman, 100/1 Gumlayloy.

DIOMED VERDICT: KANAD looks capable of defying a penalty for his Fakenham success, with Sonic Anthem also likely to be thereabouts, but Killowenabbey could trump them both if the forecast rain gets into the ground.

KAnad won last time out and appears in another seller today where only 5 horses are under 25/1 -a good probability chance of placing with a clear round


620 BANGOR ON DEE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Osric, 11/4 Accordingtoemandem, 9/2 Master Fong, 7/1 Red Not Blue, 12/1 National Obsession, 25/1 Oxford Circus, 40/1 Ruby Delta.

DIOMED VERDICT: OSRIC is well worth another chance in receipt of weight from the previous winners Accordingtoemandem and Master Fong. 2 length 3rd of 14 Osric was last time and an indication today that they are looking for a win - 5/6 now in places and McCoy up for Henderson. Again only 2 places a slight concern 800 CORK BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Awe Inspiring, 11/4 Be My Storm, 9/2 O´ Bella Ballerina, 13/2 Dainty, 7/1 Hedaaya, 16/1 Fit For A Queen, 25/1 Ladytown, Snap Alam, 33/1 Sara Trotter, 50/1 Erin´s Joy, 66/1 Raging Spirit. Awe inspiring represents O'Brien/Murtagh and falls in the category of Ballydoyle juvenile who should improve for the run ( 2 2nd places augur well) Be my storm is a Weld/Smullen contender and close on his tails SHORTLIST NOT awe inspiring today as there are too many 2 the place races and yet again we have horses returning from layoffs. Any solace in the football first? 5pm- Osnabruck v Holstein Kiel - 1.26 - yes German 3rd tier so we are betting " blind" but I do like contrasting form ( home side have won 14 at home this season, away side have lost 14 away this season)- preference would be to lay Holstein - the greater likelihood is the away loss if the form is accurate) and perhaps put in a multiple? 730pm- Rapid Vienna v SV Kapfenberg - 1.18 - as we know by now, sub 1.2 equals goals usually and a comfortable home win. This match is in running and 2-2 last match in March is a slight concern - 1.13 over 1.5 goals may assuage that by including both sides?

425 LINGFIELD
Tazeez : 2008 Cambridgeshire winner took another step forward by landing the Earl Of Sefton last spring and was not beaten in Prince Of Wales´s Stakes upped to Group 1; not seen since modest effort (reportedly ran flat) in July but has clear advantage on officialfigures and, although trip on short side, must be hard to beat if at anything like his best; Prince of Wales´s/Eclipse entries suggest he has given plenty of cause for optimism.
Interesting but the last run was relatively poor ( anything long term amiss?) and he has an absence to overcome this time ( and also 2 places only)

500 Cork - penalty to overcome today but been well backed into 4/9 and Murtagh an eyecatching jockey for Tommy Stack
Interesting analysis of his only race "already looks a stakes horse as he overcame a bit of adversity to land this."
5 furlong 2 year old races are perhaps not the ideal betting mediums as they miss the kick, they're playing catch up over an ever shortening distance

525 LINGFIELD - Corsica represents the impressive, to date, Dettori/Johnston combination. Only 2 places the concern ( as it is with High Award)

550 BANGOR - only 5 horses under 33/1 in this race and Kanad at 5/6 looks to have an easier chance of placing in what is described as a weaker seller than the one he won last time out.

800 CORK - it is tight at the head of the market with 3 strong trainers represented in Aiden O'Brien, Dermot Weld, and John Oxx. These are the only 3 horses under 10/1 and favouratism is shared pretty much by Awe inspiring for O'Brien and Be my Storm for Weld /Smullen

Awe inspiring -
Awe Inspiring looks certain to improve and even at this stage looks a filly who will be well suited by an extra couple of furlongs. Handily positioned behind the leaders and travelling well most of theway, she was just found out for speed when the winner quickened but she did keep on well inside the last. She looks sure to win a maiden at least

From my perspective Awe inspiring is a Ballydoyle juvenile set to improve with each run. 2 2nd places ( one over this distance) looks very good

Be my storm has only had one run, and only over 7 furlongs - rise in trip to 10 furlongs today.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

3 Selections Chosen
1	Osnabruck v Holstein Kiel (Laying Holstein Kiel @ 21.05)
2	Rapid Vienna v SV Kapfenberg (Laying SV Kapfenberg @ 34.08)
3	Shelbourne v Mervue Utd (Laying Mervue Utd @ 22.98)

Trebles
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2 and 3	1.13	£100.00	£13.00

covers the draw in each of these matches using Betfair Multiples

Of the football matches, Rapid Vienna would appeal most as it is in running, and despite the 2-2 in recent head to head, I would hope at some stage that Rapid take the lead and I would trade .
Over 1.5 goals at 1.13 is reasonable and tradeable too if an early 1st goal.

07.03.2010	D1 Bundesliga	Kapfenberger SV	SK Rapid Wien	2-2
05.12.2009	D1 Bundesliga	SK Rapid Wien	Kapfenberger SV	3-1
23.09.2009	D1 Bundesliga	Kapfenberger SV	SK Rapid Wien	0-1
31.05.2009	D1 Bundesliga	Kapfenberger SV	SK Rapid Wien	0-4
14.03.2009	D1 Bundesliga	SK Rapid Wien	Kapfenberger SV	6-0
31.10.2008	D1 Bundesliga	Kapfenberger SV	SK Rapid Wien	0-2
02.08.2008	D1 Bundesliga	SK Rapid Wien	Kapfenberger SV	3-1

These are the head to heads and clear advantage to Rapid. 2 of the last 3 matches have been tight ( 2-2 and 1-0 away win) but home form has been emphatic.


500 CORK - High award is 1.18 to place in a very illiquid market and is showing at 4/11 in places. My concern here is that this is a 2 year old 5 furlong race and High Award is expected to automatically replicate promising first run, and he is still a baby and learning. Only 2 places, but the place price is enticing

800 CORK - Awe inspiring is the perennial Ballydoyle improver after a run. 2 2nds last 2 runs, looks primed to place at the very least in this race. My concern would be the competitiveness at the head of the market and the probability that a dark horse from out of the pack may push one of the 3 under 10/1 out of the places. Very illiquid betting market at the moment

29/4

Nothing appeals in the football today so it is with the horse racing that I have concentrated. There are 2 horse races which I have reduced to the Shortlist of the shortlist. Have a look at these and you will see that one race is a maiden with 2 debutants among the 4 runners , and the 2nd race is a bumper ( which ideally needs market consultation nearer the off)

Which of the 2 appeals most for me? Well it is difficult to chose. Swish Dish represents Hannon/Hughes - has had the recent run, and is in a race where, at time of writing, there has been no market support for them .

Scoter Fontaine is the representative of Curtis/McCoy and the clincher here is the promising 4th at Punchestown when he looked like winning, the absence of 2nd favourite, the fact this is a bumper ( no jumps fences!!!) , and the fact the trainer is 4 out of 4 in bumpers at the track.

The choice is very difficult but I would have to go with Scoter Fontaine today because the 2 debutants in Swish Dish's race could be anything ( although I expect Swish Dish to win/place)

ONE A DAY 520 HEREFORD - SCOTER FONTAINE TO PLACE ONLY 1.11 currently but the market is very illiquid so do give the market some time to form

Zebedee won well . It's always a risk backing a 2 year old to replicate previous sole run especially in a 2 the place race, but Hannon is so hot at the moment .

FOOTBALL
805pm - Liverpool v Athletico Madrid - 1.64 - Europa Cup a must win now for the Fat Spanish Waiter with his "guaranteed" 4th place looking but a dream.
1-0 to Athletico in the first leg means that an away goal will make life very difficult for Liverpool. They are prices a little higher than Barcelona were yesterday, and need only a 1-0 to avoid going out in 90 minutes.
These one off matches, in particular with the away goal conundrum, makes this a tricky puzzle to solve.

HORSE RACING

I had a quick look through the card last night on my return from London and there were many 2 the place races, and imponderable handicaps which made finding a selection, at first glance, very difficult. Hopefully market movers and non runners can help free up a possible one a dayer as the football is non too appealing.

230 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tanked Up, 9/4 Novabridge, 5/1 Gartsherrie, Look´N´Listen, 10/1 Rath Maeve, 25/1 Sailor Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: TANKED UP created a fair impression on his debut when winning at Catterick last week and can get the better of Novabridge. 4 horses and 2 places now and Tanked up was a winner last time. This is a seller though and typical of the type of races found today. Just niggly enough to be offputting despite being a 50/50 race. 240 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Katy´s Secret, 9/2 Catherines Call, 5/1 First Term, 6/1 Gundaroo, Posy Fossil, 7/1 Show Willing, 12/1 Caramelita, 14/1 Mellifera, 20/1 Rosiliant. DIOMED VERDICT: KATY'S SECRET (nap) caught the eye under an inexperienced apprentice last time and should fare better now moving into handicaps for the first time. handicap debutant and these can swing either way. I have seen heavily backed handicap debutants do nothing. Of appeal is the booking of Dettori who takes over from an apprentice.6/4 - - - -5/1 in the live betting market. 300 REDCAR BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Always Dazzling, 7/2 Elle Est, Golden Ratio, 5/1 Red Scintilla, 10/1 Where´s Denton, 14/1 Director General, Forks, 33/1 Kookie, Mr Prize Fighter, 66/1 Velle Est Valere. DIOMED VERDICT: ALWAYS DAZZLING shaped well on her debut at Ayr last summer and, although not seen since, will appreciate this trip and should be too good for this ordinary lot. Another example of another niggly race. Always dazzling is the Johnston/Fanning horse and o immediate interest to me in this maiden but has not run since July 2009 when a good 2nd on debut. Faith in the excellent Fanning to get a place in a race where only 3 look to be under double figure odds. 320 HEREFORD BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Badger Foot, 3/1 Denny Mac, 7/2 Minella For Food, Over The Flow, 33/1 Haoyunma. DIOMED VERDICT: BADGER FOOT can take this en route to better things. With one clear outsider, this is another 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places - Badger Foot has McCoy onboard. Again only 2 places and chase fences and not an immediately standout horse form wise 350 HEREFORD BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Prince Des Marais, 9/4 Line Artic, 4/1 Almaydan, 5/1 Huguenot, 14/1 Tyup Pompey. DIOMED VERDICT: LINE ARTIC (nap) can fend off fellow improver Prince Des Marais. Interesting that Diomed napped Line Artic originally. Now with nearest threat Prince des Marais a non runner, surely he has a better chance of winning ( and thus placing). Only 2 places again and a handicap chase - the outsider is only 6/1 which tells you none can be discounted 410 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Decency, 4/1 Motty´s Gift, 8/1 Azaday, Singingintherain, Tamarind Hill, 10/1 Stay On Track, Tregony Bridge, 12/1 Belle Park, Chinese Democracy, Cool Kitten, 25/1 Denton Ryal. DIOMED VERDICT: MOTTY'S GIFT may have more to come in handicaps and can follow up his recent Kempton success Price gapper in the live betting market Decency 9/4 - - - 5/1 but I normally want to see price gappers in class 6 0-60 handicaps mirrored in the betting forecast too. The 7/2 shown by the Racing Post journalist hints at an open race. 440 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Swish Dish, 7/4 Round Won, 8/1 Well Overdue, 12/1 Storming Redd. DIOMED VERDICT: SWISH DISH made an encouraging return to action at Newbury and looks to have been found a good opening here. The dynamic duo return - Hannon and Hughes on Swish Dish. My argument re Zebedee yesterday applies here - this maiden has had a run 16th April 2010-a good 3rd of 11 in a class 4 - today is a class 6. Now considering Hannon maidens do well on their debuts, then we can argue that a horse with 3 maiden runs and a recent run has an improved chance of running well. The market indicates only Swish Dish and Round won are the ones to consider, being as they are the only ones under 12/1 500 BRIGHTON BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Stunning In Purple, 2/1 Johnny Hancocks, 5/2 Prophet In A Dream, 14/1 Vivre La Secret, 20/1 Bold Deceiver, DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to dismiss any of the once-raced trio but JOHNNY HANCOCKS, who showed enough on his debut to suggest that he can win a race of this nature, gets the call. Typifies the day well this race " hard to dismiss any....." 505 REDCAR BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sparkling Smile, 9/4 Gritstone, 8/1 Sharakti, 10/1 Storm Command, 14/1 High Rolling, DIOMED VERDICT: SPARKLING SMILE showed improved form to win at Beverley over this trip on quick ground last week and is fancied to defy a penalty. I flagged up Sparkling Smile here when the money came for him last time out under Ted Durcan, and he obliged. Inserted as favourite herre, there is no real signal of money coming as I write.In this 5 runner race, there are only 2 under 14/1, Sparkling smile at 4/7 and Gritstone at 11/4 - any involvement here assumes these 2 dominate as there are only 2 places. "hard to beat under penalty" says Diomed , and I must admit Ted Durcan is an ultra reliable jockey 520 HEREFORD BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Scoter Fontaine, 5/1 Wood Yer, 6/1 Bahr Nothing, 7/1 Toomyvara, 14/1 Toxic Asset, 16/1 Edlomond, 33/1 My Idea, 40/1 Bridge Street Boy, 66/1 Castle Legend, Floating Cloud. DIOMED VERDICT: SCOTER FONTAINE can give Rebecca Curtis back-to-back victories following the success of Black Jack Blues last year. 2nd fav a non runner leaves theRebecca Curtis/McCoy horse very short and clear as fav in the betting - this is becoming typical of all Curtis/McCoy horses recently. A recent bumper 4th at the Punchestown festival sees this horse fancied now at 4/9 under McCoy - the great thing is this is a bumper so there are no obstacles.BUT there are 3 debutants and 3 one time outers.A price gap of 4/9 - - - 8/1 is very appealing to me under the Champ ( albeit in a flat race) 610 HUNTINGDON BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 American Cricket, 4/1 Last One Standing, 5/1 Not A Bob, Vincitore, 8/1 Keep Talking, 14/1 Alexander Beetle. DIOMED VERDICT: AMERICAN CRICKET showed a good attitude to win a bumper and has done enough as a hurdler since to get the vote. Now odds on and a good price gapper this American Criket, but typical of today's races generally, another 2 the place race. 640 HUNTINGDON BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bid Art, 13/2 Wiesenfurst, 8/1 Lord Gunnerslake, 9/1 Safe Investment, 10/1 Laharna, 12/1 Fort Severn, 14/1 Gainsborough´s Art, Ilewin Tom, 16/1 Galley Slave, 33/1 Simplified. DIOMED VERDICT: BID ART got off the mark as a chaser in impressive fashion at Fontwell and can defy this penalty. Price gapper herre this Bid Art in a chase - penalty to carry but has been progressing and placing 3221 under Daryl Jacob SHORTLIST Not really interested in any of the football today, and as you have seen, the majority of the horse racing has a lot of niggles or 2 the place races. 300 REDCAR - Always dazzling has had a run for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning. This is important because a number of Johnston maiden debutants have ran green. This experience could be key. The concern here is that the horse has not run since July 2009. There are only 3 horses under 12/1 here . Illiquid betting market 350 HEREFORD - Line Arctic was the nap selection of Diomed even with a full compliment of runners, but with his near market rival Prince de Marais a non runner, surely this opens things up for him to place/win? Only 2 places though and the outsider is 6/1 so this does look a tight enough affair where non can be readily dismissed ( nor are they being dismissed in the live betting) 440 FOLKSTONE - well the Hannon juveniles are cleaning up, even the debutants. Swish Dish has had the recent run - 3rd of 11 and , down to class 6, is in a 4 horse race with only 2 to beat to place. There are 2 debutants who of course could be anything but there is no market support for either and they hold firm at 12/1 - of concern to me was the marked and sudden improvement by Swish Dish in her recent run compared to 2 poor efforts last year. The connections do say that she is a stronger filly this year. 520 HEREFORD - the absence of the 2nd favourite seems to have really impacted the market here and Scoter Fontaine's chances look to be enhanced now - McCoy rides again for Rebecca Curtis and the advantage here is that this is a bumper race 640 HEREFORD - 14 length winner Bid Art last time out - have we missed the opportunity? Penalty today but evens - - - - -6/1 in the live betting market SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 440 FOLKSTONE - I hate backing 2 the place races, but here we have a 50/50 chance. 4 horss and 2 places. 4/7 , 11/4 , 12/1 , 12/1 - the 4/7 shot is Swish Dish for Hannon/Hughes and must be the one to chose in this race given the connections' exceptional start to the flat season. There are 2 debutants ( the 12/1 horses) who of course, if we are getting really niggly, could be anything. The drop from class 4 to class 6 for Swish Dish, as well as a recent run, could be the clincher here - around 1.15 to place 520 HEREFORD - Scoter Fontaine was 7/2 fav in his Punchestown bumper debut and finished a reasonable 4th ( albeit OUT of the places) 2nd fav is a non runner today which seems to have shortened Scoter's price considerably. Around 1.1 to place, my concern with this race is the fact it is a bumper. Trainer is 4 from 4 in bumpers

28/4

ONE A DAY - 210 ASCOT - ZEBEDEE TO PLACE ONLY - faith in the recent run, the ultra strong connections whose season has been outstanding, and the Racing Post hack's synopsis that this will be " a penalty kick" - only 2 places and 5 furlongs the negatives, as is the fact this is this only 2 year old's second run, and these are still babies. Gicen the fact the Hannon/Hughes partnership have done so well with their 2 year old debutants, surely a 2 year old with a winning first run can be trusted to reproduce promising initial form.


Apologies for loss of message yesterday, beyond my influence. Nom de Guerre won, and nice to see Knockavilla win, particularly as I was staying in Knockavilla where my Mother grew up yesterday.


FOOTBALL


2pm - Bunyodkor v Al Wahda - 1.16 - anything sub 1.2 needs investigation as this usually means goals.
Asian Champions League- Bunyodkor can go top of their group with a win today ( albeit briefly with them having played a game in hand after this match) Why they are 1.16 is anybody's guess as it is not reflected in any dominance on the field.
They play 4th ( of 4) Al Wahda, who have played 5, won 1 and lost 4.


Head to heads 2-1 to Bunyodkor


At home, Bun have won 3-0 and lost 1-0 to the group leaders who have dominated with 3 wins, a draw and a loss.


The 3-0 came against 2nd in the group and is a good sign, perhaps, that the 1.16 may be justified.


545pm - Lech Poznan v Lechia Gdansk - 1.35 - Polish league match

Home team Lech Poznan have a home record of 9-2-1 (W-D-L) for their 12 home games this season, 29 points from a possible 36. That's a home points average of 2.42 compared to 2.00 for all games this season. Lech Poznan's recent points average is 2.00, 12 points from 6 games 3-3-0 (W-D-L) Lech Poznan's last 10 league games record reads DWWWDWDWWD (DWWWDWDWWD) while their last 10 home league games read WWWWDWWWWW (WWWWDWWWWW).

Away team Lechia Gdansk have an away record of 5-4-3 (W-D-L) for their 12 away games this season, 19 points from a possible 36. That's an away points average of 1.58 compared to 1.36 for all games this season. Lechia Gdansk's recent points average is 1.00, 6 points from games; Lechia Gdansk's last 10 league games record reads DWDDWLLDDD (DWDLWLDLDD) while their last 10 away league games readLDLWWDDWLD (DLWWDDWLWD).

Historically a tight game with a 0-0 and 1-0 win in he 2 matches in 2009.

Lechia Gdansk have won 2 of their recent 4 away matches, and drawn 3 ( I am including cup matches here,) 2 of those 0-0.

This looks a match best avoided, but betdevil ratings of 1822 v 917 indicate a potential gulf. And it must be said that Lechia have not played any side so highly rated yet so we have no collateral indication of how they might fare.

745pm - Barcelona v Inter Milan - 1.45 - is very dismissive of the Special One's abilities and scoreline at home, but is indicative of the need for goals for the home side. Barca would love to just win 2-0 and make their way to the final which where they will have a superb opportunity against Bayern.

This is Spanish attacking flare against, perhaps, Italian hold and defend?

210 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Zebedee, 13/2 Reposer, 8/1 Pick A Little, 12/1 Joe Junior, 14/1 Straight Line, 16/1 Saucy Buck, 20/1 Ocean´s Glacier.

DIOMED VERDICT: This has the look of a penalty kick for ZEBEDEE, who won with more authority than the margin suggests on this month's Windsor debut and should be very hard to beat. The odds will be decidedly skinny though. Newcomer Reposer is tentatively preferred to Kempton AW winner Pick A Little for forecast seekers. What a start to the day! Could be a one a day before I even look through the rest of the day's cards. Zebedee represents Hughes and Hannon, the hottest pair since Posh and Becks. Look at these trigger words "very hard to beat" "has the look of a penalty kick" Has already run this season and won. Is a strong price gapper , now 1/3 ( do note though that I have to start at 820am this morning so the markets have not formed) Rock hard at the head of the midday market. 255 PONTEFRACT BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Lion Mountain, 9/2 Suyoof, 6/1 Raqeeb, 8/1 Plato, 14/1 Najam, 16/1 Peaceful Soul, 25/1 Admiral Rodney, 100/1 Fantastic Favour. DIOMED VERDICT: LION MOUNTAIN should be able to get off the mark with second place up for grabs.

Lion mountain has a jockey I like, Ted Durcan , on board and Diomed does say he will be " hard to beat" but the horse was a good 2nd back in October 2009

2 debutants include the Johnston Suyoof and the market must be consulted in these maidens .I have arrived uin LKondon now so the market at midday is strong for this Lion mountain, all red and 8/11

340 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Martha Elizabeth, 6/1 River Beauty, Timoca, 8/1 Be My Light, Chip N Pin, 10/1 Tuppenny Piece, 14/1 Camino Real, Eterna, Hopeand, 25/1 Betty Browneyes, Tara Isle, 33/1 Golden Smog, 50/1 My Clementine,

DIOMED VERDICT: Irish runner MARTHA ELIZABETH has shaped well as a hurdler and makes appeal with Tony McCoy up. Price gapper here but again no live market as yet with which to confirm. 13/8 in places with the next best at 7/1 -this is a strong price gapper and has the CHampion jockey on board. - placed 2nd and 3rd last twice in maiden hurdles 430 ASCOT BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Our Jonathan, 9/2 Society Rock, 11/2 Mon Cadeaux, 13/2 Corporal Maddox, Iver Bridge Lad, 8/1 Absolute Music, Edinburgh Knight, 14/1 Shearman, 16/1 Reignier. DIOMED VERDICT: OUR JONATHAN won four times from six outings as a juvenile and should have enough improvement in him to defy a 7lb penalty back at Listed level. Society Rock may emerge as the chief threat.

Our Jonathan looks a good colt , his 2 year old form is extremely strong. Back in listed company and not run since November - has perennial hold up merchant Frank Spencer on board -some hate his style ( ME!!!), some love it.

Again, needs market consultation given the absences of the main principals. Our Jonathan maintains unstready favouratism at midday but it is Society Rock who has come in for support.

550 KELSO

As I am using a borrowed PC I cannot copy and paste the betting forecast. Al Quedaaf is the horse of interest here in this maiden hurdle.in a race where only 3 are under 14/1. McCain/Maguire combo - I trust these 2 and solid enough form in better company last time.

605 KEMPTON

Again, I cannot paste the betting forecast. Here the fav Athenian Garden for Henry Cecil and Tom Queally is now solid 7/4 , all red, favourite and has that important recent run

SHORTLIST

The expectation in the football this evening is for Barcelona to attempt to score 2 goals to no reply. Perhaps over 1.5 goals is a good bet tonight? It is a difficult game to call as we don't know Inter's tactics ( they just really need an away goal ) and Barca must score 2 minimum .
The fact there is an Inter +1.5 goals market means that Betfair expects.
1.22 for over 1.5 goals therefore is interesting in the hope of all out attack. If Inter score first, then we can be assured the bet will come in as Barca need to score to reply.

210 ASCOT - first race at Ascot and a "penalty kick " for Zebedee? 1.4 to win and 1.17 to place ( relatively high for a penalty kick horse who is " very hard to beat" because it is 2 places only)
Very enticing this one.

We face the old conundrum today of horses coming back from running some months previously. Zebedee has the recent run, and represents a stable whose 2 year olds are all offspring of Pegasus!!

Slight drift to 4/11 from 1/3 but next best is 12/1. Looks an outstanding bet. Slight niggles - 2 places and 5 furlongs - we have seen recently a few go down thanks to tardiness over the minimum distance and an inability to get back.