10/2

Football is rubbish today. I have, then , shortlisted 4 races of interest where I think we have most things in our favour for the horse to place.

Cork all star is 4/7 - - - 8/1 price gapper but I cannot locate point to point form to see if 1) today's jockey has ridden the horse before 2) what type of ground the horse has recently run in and 3) whether the horse is familiar with 3 miles.

I would put this up as a one a day based only on the betting market really as it is a whopping price gap.

Trop Fort would be one for the speculator based on an apparent market move and the fact the trainer is at his local Taunton. A tasty place only price for the speculator but a maiden hurdle so we are taking a small risk that Trop fort is ready to jump.

The last 2 horses are, for me. stronger bets today. The 610 Kempton sees a 4 horse race for 2 places, but one is a 20/1 chance. 3 horses for 2 places? Surely Classically will place.

The 200 Taunton sees Chrysander a favourite in this race which sees only 4 under 25/1 and at the prices, is the best on offer at 1.2 ish ( illiquid market) of the horses that are not shortlisted based on potential stable gambles.

*****ONE A DAY - 200 TAUNTON - Chrysander to place only***** -try to get 1.2 or higher - market illiquid currently and if remains illiquid opt for Betfair SP

I only hope, as ever, that th horse does not fall! We always have to assume a clear round!

Next best would be Classically later on I think in a great probability race.

Nice win for Holland.
Enhanced bets? Were England ever going to lose after going 1-0 down to Denmark? Then back them 1-0 down at better odds?
Or how about Andorra, 1 man sent off, take the lead against Moldova, and Moldova were backable at 6.2. As soon as they equalised, their price crashed to 2.9 making for an excellent trade.
There's more to the message that simply one a day as I hope you realise.
Or faith in the world Champions, Spain. Backable at odds of 6 while still 0-0 ( they were 1.2 pre match), they got the winner in the last 10 minutes!

A very poor selection of football today. Wait until tomorrow and the usual Dutch Juliper goal fest ( he said, clearing throat after top v bottom finished 0-0)

310 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 A Media Luz, 5/1 Pantxoa, 11/2 Two Kisses, 6/1 Seven Summits, 14/1 Looks Like Slim, 66/1Thundering Home.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A MEDIA LUZ has yet to fulfil expectations but her second at Newbury was more encouraging and she looked poised to go one better when falling at Kempton. She will be expected to take the measure of Two Kisses and Pantxoa if none the worse for that experience.[Frank Carter]

2/5 and 1/3 in places this A Media Luz. Fell last time out a slight concern. I prefer to see consistent finishers over the obstacles. Henderson/geraghty the main reason behind the short price? 1.44 to win and 1.12 to place in a currently illiquid place only market

Only 2 places

410 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Cork All Star, 15/2 Preacher Boy, 9/1 Aztec Warrior, 10/1 Mount Benger, 14/1 Gripit N Tipit, 14/1 Star Double, 25/1 Joyryder, 33/1 Mandingo Chief.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CORK ALL STAR's career stalled over hurdles but he could hardly have got the job done better in two points recently and should continue on his winning ways if his jumping stands up to this more demanding test. Preacher Boy may be the best each-way alternative.[Frank Carter]

Noticeable price gapper here both in the betting forecast and reflected in the live betting market too where he is 4/7 - - - 8/1 - cannot be ignored. A great race for place only betting as it is 8 runners and 3 places.

First hunter chase but point to point form points to a strong running. Jockeys relatively unknown. I have only heard of Polly Gundry amongst the 8 jocks. I am unable to access point to point form to gauge it the horse has run over 3 miles before. 1.6 to win and 1.16 to place. Very well fancied today but a pity I cannot boost my own confidence by accessing the point to point winning form

440 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Heather Royal, 3/1 Baby Shine, 8/1 Genstone Trail, 8/1 Tempest River, 12/1 Miss Milborne, 14/1Double Silver, 14/1 Zahirah Moon, 20/1 Ballyquin Queen, 20/1 Finmerello, 25/1 Dream Performance, 25/1 I´m So Special, 25/1Persian Forest, 33/1 Looby Magoodle, 33/1 Reveal The Light, 40/1 Bollin Tahini, 66/1 Irene Kennet, 66/1 Well Sprung, 100/1Bushlark.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nicky Henderson is rarely wide of the mark with his bumper runners and the debut winner HEATHER ROYAL could be a bit out of the ordinary judged from her Cheltenham Festival hurdle entry. Baby Shine and Tempest Riverlook the pick of her rivals.[Frank Carter]

An 18 runner bumper and likely there will be more market moves on the run up to 440pm. As things stand there are only 2 under 11/1 here. dare we go with man of the moment Henderson again and Heather Royal, currently 15/8 in places which is eyecatching in such a big field.

as ever in bumpers, all will be reveled in the market. 1.53 to place. I think this is a good trading price as a Henderson horse should shorten in the market. Again, markets are very illiquid as I write.

510 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Jessica Wigmo, 5/1 Valdemar, 6/1 Francis Albert, 6/1 Royal Acclamation, 10/1 Jemimaville, 12/1Chandrayaan, 16/1 Avonvalley, 20/1 What Katie Did, 25/1 Rightcar, 33/1 Southwark Newshawk.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JESSICA WIGMO hasn't won for two years and was well beaten when favourite for this contest in 2010, but she had excuses that day and her latest effort suggests she is ready to strike. Reliable alternatives are thin on the ground butValdemar and Royal Acclamation deserve a second look.[Stuart Redding]

Price gapper in a class 7 0-50 handicap and fastinthestraight won yesterday for the system. Jessica is a little unsure in the betting market at present. The 6/4 - - - -- 5/1 betting forecast price is now 9/4 - - - -- 9/2 - the price gap has not really translated into the live betting market but there are some 6 hours to race time and this might change.

1.55 to place is a big place only price if we hope that Jessica will replicate Fastinthestraight's win yesterday.

610 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Classically, 9/4 Layla´s Dancer, 5/1 Treacle Tart, 9/1 Active Asset, 20/1 Triple Point.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CLASSICALLY is untried beyond 1m2f but his stamina will probably not be tested in this small field and he should be hard to beat. Treacle Tart could be the one to chase him home.[Stuart Redding]

A significant non runner in Layla's dancer surely paves the way for Classically to take advantage in what is now a 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places and one is 16/1 -highly illiquid and no point commenting on a place only market that has yet to get the market forces in gear.

710 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Exemplary, 9/2 Benhego, 11/2 My Valley, 6/1 Muzo, 7/1 Frameit, 10/1 Satwa Gold, 14/1 Dalhaan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Every chance this could become tactical and that would play into the hands of Exemplary. However,BENHEGO has been slowly coming to form and is taken to regain a prize he won two years ago.[Stuart Redding]

You remember Jack's revenge a couple of days ago. george Baker booked - money down - wins.

Well Benhego hints at being fancied today as he has taken the mantle of favouratism off Exemplary at time of writing ( some 8 hours before race time!!) That man George in the plate again, but only 2 places and a Johnston runner in Exemplary in opposition. Only 2 to place and if you want to follow the early suggestion of support for Benhego, then he is a generous 1.6 to place , albeit in yet another ridiculously money void place market.

450 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Stanley Rigby, 7/4 Dandarrell, 8/1 Magnitude, 10/1 Naheell, 12/1 General Tufto.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No guaranteed pace in a race that looks to lie between Stanley Rigby and DANDARRELL, who've both improved for the switch to Fibresand this winter. The latter's third to Rosewin off 2lb higher has been
boosted since and he's the call.[Graham Wheldon]

3 wins out of 3 on fibresand for Stanley Rigby who is now odds on but a multiple handicap winner whose winning run will end eventually. Does this mean we default to safer Dandarrell? Wow, they still fancy Stanley Rigby to place - 1.27 clear favourite and Dandarrel is around 1.65 but illiquid.

200 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Chrysander, 9/4 Olivino, 11/2 Abstract Art, 13/2 Sweet World, 10/1 Starburst, 12/1 Yourgolftravel Com, 25/1 Abulharith, 40/1 Reymysterio, 50/1 Aldorable.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from CHRYSANDER who holds a few of these on the form of last month's C&D success. Olivino is the main danger on official figures.[Steven Boow]

Only 4 under 20/1 here and do we side with Spotlight and Chrysander to place again? 1.24 to place is generous enough for Chrysander.

230 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Brampour, 7/2 Clowance House, 7/2 First In The Queue, 5/1 Trop Fort, 12/1 Briefcase, 16/1 Qalinas, 20/1 Management, 25/1 Eurhythmic, 25/1 His Lordship, 33/1 Vitruvian Man, 40/1 Bold Identity, 40/1 Noble Ruler, 66/1 Artic Journey, 66/1 Johnny Owen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Trop Fort, unbeaten in two French bumpers, is an intriguing contender on his British debut, while triple Flat winner First In The Queue is another hurdling debutant worthy of a mention. Of those with jumping experience,BRAMPOUR can be expected to build on his Kempton effort and he gets the verdict.[Steven Boow]

Money down for Trop Fort, backed into warm favourite here for David Pipe and at Pipe's local track ( you don't need to be Miss marple to suggest a stable gamble?) 5/1 in the betting forecast backed into 2/1 joint fav at present ( 15/8 in places) - 1.52 for Trop Fort is a great price if you feel there is something to the difference in price between the betting forecast and the live betting market. 1.48 for Brampour is also interesting.

I would also fancy the Nicholls runner Brampour who has had the run.

A maiden hurdle so may be some dark horses lurking at better odds?

145 THURLES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Killultagh Queen, 9/2 Bobs Display, 8/1 Back Me Up, 10/1 Tarrawarra, 14/1 Flying Windsor, 14/1Lady Roberta, 14/1 Prairie Call, 16/1 Coolharbour Breeze, 20/1 Ahsurelookit, 20/1 Bennys Breeze, 20/1 False Messenger, 20/1Galant Ferns, 33/1 Miss Pepperpot, 33/1 Swift Lady, 50/1 Bleudawn, 50/1 Lady Shanakill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOBS DISPLAY makes most appeal to get her head in front after chasing home the classy For Bill last time. She has most to fear from Killultagh Queen, who hails from a yard that can do little wrong these days, and Back Me Up, who looks open to improvement following her creditable chasing bow here last month. [Brian Fleming]

Mullins/Townend have been cleaning up of late in Ireland and Killutagh Queen is strong favourite in this big field heavy ground beginners chase. has chase experience and runs on heavy. Trust the stable to get it right or swerve beginners chases on heavy at an Irish provincial track?

There are plenty of other Mullins shorties at Thurles but I am put off by the heavy ground - such a bad race type yet the Mullins runner remains ultra strong 1.25 to place

340 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Golden Sword, 6/1 Snowmaster, 8/1 Final Drive, 10/1 Kal Barg, 10/1 Wonder Lawn, 12/1 Sweet Lightning, 14/1 Persiste Et Signe, 14/1 Rochdale, 16/1 Dear Bela, 16/1 Royal Destination, 20/1 Alrasm, 20/1 Iron Age, 25/1 Glen Nevis, 33/1 Oroveso.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mike De Kock's Golden Sword was a big eyecatcher returned to the UAE over an inadequate trip last time and he'll go close back up in trip if the mood takes. However he's never really been one to take skinny odds about and an each-way chance at a better price is taken with SWEET LIGHTNING, who was far from disgraced after meeting trouble over 1m on his UAE and Tapeta debut last time (form could be given boost by Atlantic Sport or Rakaan in opener) and he's taken to reverse placings with the likeable Final Drive over this much more suitable distance.[Richard Young]

Price gapper in Golden Sword here - will he improve enough to place at least? Another illiquid place only market so no point commenting on current prices as they are way off and not the subject of market forces just yet.

530 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Zanzamar, 9/2 Abjer, 8/1 Bridgefield, 8/1 Buffum, 8/1 Splash Point, 10/1 Krypton Factor, 10/1Paulinho, 20/1 Sonoran Sands, 33/1 Abstrato, 33/1 Air Of Grace, 66/1 Hoot, 66/1 Mayfair Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mike De Kock has the best record in this race in Carnival history and bids for a fourth win in the last five years. Although ZANZAMAR seems to lacks the flair or flamboyancy of his previous winners Asiatic Boy, Honour Devil and Musir (who all won the same trial prior to Guineas success, as did 2009 and 2005 scorers Desert Party and Stagelight), there's little doubting he's a smart performer in his own right and he can take a race that lacks anything in the way of strength in depth. The return to this trip is going to suit and he's taken to confirm last month's UAE placings with Splash Point and Bridgefield, whose jockeys switch mounts this time.[Richard Young]

Another Mike De Kock price gapper here. Might be worth backing all his selections in an each way acca along with Mullins in Thurles. Doubtless one will go awry but you'll have a cracking return if they all place and a couple in. Zanzamar should be around 1.35 to place at race time.

SHORTLIST
As you probably guess I am a lot happier with football than horse racing at present, but let's see if any of the above can be shortlisted

410 HUNTINGDON - first race of interest. A Media Luz was a faller last time and although spanked in today, I cannot trust the horse if it has not jumped proficiently in the past. This leads me on the the 410 Huntingdon and a mighty price gapper in Cork All Star whose point to point wins must have been impressive to be quoted 4/7 - - - -8/1 next best. An ideal place only race as there are 8 runners and 3 places

3 miles ( I cannot verify the distance travelled in the point to points) and a cursory warning from Spotlight " should continue on his winning ways if his jumping stands up to this more demanding test"

A clear round required for 3 miles in this hunter chase but must be such an eyecatching price gapper for a reason

610 KEMPTON - Layla's dancer a non runner ( Eric Clapton could not do the weight) , should leave the path clear for Classically here. 4 horses and 2 places. One horse at 20/1 should leave 3 horses for 2 places and Classically is currently 5/6 favourite.

710 KEMPTON - Benhego has that man George Baker on again and is backed into current favouratism. Take the hint, or worry as it is only 2 places and some 7+ hours to race time?

200 TAUNTON - " it is hard to get away from Chrysander here" - 1.25 to place is generous enough Only 4 under 25/1 here

230 TAUNTON - one for speculators and Sherlock Holmes like deduction devotees. Trop Fort is 5/1 in the betting forecast. The horse currently shares favouratism at 2/1. A David Pipe horse and this is David's local track, ergo stable gamble? Again there are only 4 horses under 25/1 but this is a maiden hurdle. For all his exploits on the flat in France, if Trop Fort cannot jump, then he can't jump!!!

145 THURLES - faith in the stable rather than the conditions. A beginners chase in heavy ground in ireland should have us all hovering the mouse over the lay price for Killutagh Queen but the market really fancies this one.

530 MEYDAN - Zanzimar would probably be my fancy in Meydan and I must admit it is based largely on the info provided by Spotlight.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

410 HUNTINGDON - no escaping the price gap here and the fact it is 8 runners. Will this negate the fact I cannot do proper analysis on Cork all Star's point to point wins. I have no way of knowing whether 3 miles is a new distance for the horse, as his track form indicates he has not run that far. Still 8 runners, 3 places and a whopping price gap make this Cork all star a good place only prospect.

610 KEMPTON - this should be a 3 horse race for 2 places if we automatically ignore the 20/1 outsider. Classically to place? cannot gauge place only price as it is an evening race and the place market is illiquid at present.

200 TAUNTON - if indeed this revolves around the 4 under 25/1 and they all finish of course ( a big assumption in jumps races) then Chrysander, at the prices, looks a cracking one a day prospect.

230 TAUNTON - Trop Fort could just be worth gambling at a very healthy place only price if we have guessed right that the move into 9/4 joint favouratism is because this locally trained horse is being gambled on today

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

9/2

International friendlies, and as an aside, the English look big odds this evening -back them and trade out if they score first? Elsewhere I would look to Liechtenstein against a side who have conceded 5 minimum in 8 of their last 12 and have not scored in last 12, BUT THIS IS FECKING LIECHTENSTEIN!! Can we trust them?
Holland really stand out this evening at a great price of 1.38 and I am really tempted to put them up. Unbeaten in 32, and playing at home ( an important factor when judged against away sides like Liechtenstein and the Swiss?) this should be a win or draw , and the Austrians have score drawn 5 of their last 10 aways ( losing the rest)
Spain are at home and have talent galore in all areas. Against South American opposition in recent friendlies, it was 1-1 v Mexico and 4-1 loss to Argies. But Spain are at home, are World Champions and their home support will expect a performance . Back them to win and hope for a strongly chosen side? Niggles? Little known about any strong qualities regarding Columbia. Take on trust that Spain will field a first team ( beware Barca have Champions League soon and they provide the majority of the Spanish side)
Another slight niggle is the fact Spain's last 3 friendlies were draw, loss, loss. World Cup hangover?
Horse racing wise and Punchestown sees heavy ground but So young appeals at a stingy 1.12 to place and should really win easily with a clear round. Heavy should suit .
145 Ludlow sees Kelle's belles , one of only 4 under 33/1 should place

Do I trust friendlies? I nearly came undone yesterday with Spain. I cannot get that Dutch unbeaten run out of my mind and the fact they are playing at home.
For that reason I am going to chance the Dutch, and acknowledge that this is a friendly, and Van Persie is missing.

***** ONE A DAY 730pm - Netherlands v Austria - -Back Netherlands in the match odds market at 1.38 *****

We have to take a chance with friendlies and know that teams often do not have the motivation to win these matches as they are effectively meaningless. 2 things I hope will make the Dutch play 1) home and 2) 32 match unbeaten run

I will be looking out for team news in the interim. If it is a much changed Dutch side I will update.
Note also the amount of score draws from the Swiss. This is another in play match so a late 1-0 Netherlands is tradable for those seeking early bet settlement rather than sweating it out.





I was about ready to write the post mortem, you know, Spain scored first, we could have traded, especially after an equaliser and Spanish red card, but luckily Spain got the winner in the end.

A lesson though in trading yesterday. Getting out at 1.09 when Spain scored first would have avoided all the worry of a 1-1 and a red card!!

It was an excellent message yesterday, with all angles in the Ireland match covered ( laying Ireland would have been a trading success with 0-0 at halftime, backing Ireland was a success, and laying the draw was a success. Those boyos do not like drawing, boyo. Jack's revenge was indeed fancied and won.

2pm - Andorra v Moldova - 1.3 away - home side have lost all of their last 12 matches ( could be more but the website i use only goes up to 12) - 2,3,2,4 conceded in their last 4 matches - in 11 of their last 12 matches at home, Andorra have conceded 2 minimum. That's some stat for a home side! Moldova look to be able to hold their own, recent losses 1-0 to Poland and 1-0 to Holland show this. Although no world beaters themselves , they should find Andorra a lot easier this afternoon. Can they be trusted to score 2 at least away at Andorra I don't know. Neither do we know the team changes that might be apparent in friendlies.
2pm - San Marino v Liechtenstein - 1.51 away - if Liechtenstein are odds on favourites, you know that San Marino must be pants. This is the match that the whole world has been waiting for! San Marino have lost their last 12 ( could be longer!!) and Liechtenstein have drawn 3 and lost 9 of their last 12 - yikes!
It is San Marino's concession rate that is of interest - 3,3,10,7,5,7,3,5,6,8,2,8 conceded in last 12 WITHOUT SCORING A SINGLE GOAL THEMSELVES. The inference is that if Liechtenstein can score, they should win.
Liechtenstein have not been spanked as much in defeat, and collaterally, drew 1-1 with Finland who beat San Marino 8-0 last time out.
Liechtenstein away have been quite solid last 3 matches, 1-1, 2-1 loss, 1-1. The 2-1 loss was against Scotland, when Liechtenstein took the lead and it required Fergy-like extra time for Scotland to grab the winner.
Could these 3 games signal a turning point for Liechtenstein away? And will this enable them to get the better of San Marino. I ask this because 1.51 away is a very good price.

3pm - Greece v Canada - 1.48 home - difficult to compare these 2 as they are from different footballing regions. The only piece of collateral form is a 2-0 loss for Greece v Argentina and a 5-0 loss for Canada.
greece always concern me because they are, erm, typically Greek. ,0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 2-1, 2-1 it is the games that end by one goal that are the concern.
A recent Canadian 2-2 draw against Ukraine looks mighty impressive if taken at face value.
Difficult game to gauge.
635pm - South Africa v Kenya - 1.29 home - this should go the way of the world cup hosts , for although they are naive at times, their experience and squad members from elite leagues should ensure a win. 6 of Kenya's last 7 matches have been 1-0's or 0-0's, but is this a reflection of the opposition rather than any Kenyan defensive capabilities? 5-1 loss to Egypt perhaps answers that question. Only 2 losses in the last 12 for South Africa signals a good 2009/2010 for them. Ideally we would want to see the Premiership contingent for the South Africans and a fully strengthened SA side who should dispatch of Kenya. Maybe a 0-0 cover here incase the Kenyans really are defensively strong?
715pm - Luxembourg v Slovakia - 1.28 away - 2 wins in last 12 for Luxembourg came against Lierge, a club side, in friendlies.
LLLLDLD for Luxembourg last 7 matches.The draws were both 0-0 against Belarus and Algeria at home.
2 losses in last 3 ( and it should be 3 losses - 1-1 draw against Ireland includes a missed Keane penalty which would have won it for Ireland) for Slovakia. They are difficult to get a grip on. In no way, though, can they be lumped in with Luxembourg, San MArino, Andorra et al. Any sign of their World Cup performances should see them easily dispatch this Lux side, despite the latter drawing last 2 home matches 0-0.
730pm - Malta v Switzerland - 1.34 away - 11 losses and a single draw last 12 for Malta. The World Cup gave the Swiss a reputation as being tight. They also have the ability to score against the right side as shown by the 4-1 win over Wales. Switzerland's last 4 matches have been 1-0's but 2 were in the World Cup.
730pm - Netherlands v Austria - 1.38 home - Holland are on a 32 match unbeaten run in all competitions stretching back to September 2008 when beaten 2-1 by Australia in a friendly. Talk about standout stats!!
No van persie this evening will be a big loss as he has been excellent for the Arse of late. Ideally I would like to see the Dutch side full of the usual stars . 1.38 looks very appealing. Against the bigger European nations, Austria seem to fall foul ( I am talking about France ( lost 3-1) and Spain (lost 5-1))
I cannot see the Orange Men losing at home. DLLDLDLDLD away for Austria The draws have all been scoredraws away from home. If this sequence continues, we should expect a loss today?
830pm - Spain v Colombia - 1.2 - Barcelona are back, sorry I mean Spain are back and should replicate the work of the nippers last night. Difficult to compare these 2 teams again as they play against teams from different continents. I am also concerned if Torres is selected for the Spanish as he has been ineffective for some time now and it was a nice bit of business from Liverpool unloading him. I hope Pedro, and Villa are chosen ahead of Torres this evening.
Spain have lost 2 of their last 4 matches. One was a 4-1 loss to Argentina ( which resulted in Barca losing to hercules as most of the Barca team had to fly out to Buenos Aires and back for the start of La Liga) and 4-0 drubbing v Portugal.
This may indicate that Spain do not take friendlies that seriously.
The last 3 friendlies - 1-1 draw with Mexico, 4-1 loss v Argentina and 4-0 loss to Portugal.Take away the friendlies and it's WWWWWDWWW for Spain.
This is the dilemma we face this evening if wading in at 1.2.
A safer option may be over 1.5 goals at the same odds which will cover any potential upsets from the Colombians.
6 of Columbia's last 7 matches have either been 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 scorelines.
Spain at home have won 10 and lost 1 ( 1-0 v Swiss) so at home they seem a different proposition as they have won all 4 friendlies played at home recently.


Heavy ground at Carlisle so extreme caution here. I will look for races where there are a few non runners because of the weather. Hopefully we can exploit these.

High Ransom is certainly interesting in the first but it's all a case of ifs and buts here as regards whether he handles heavy going. I will not chance it. You saw what a hint of heavy did to otherwise strong favourite Vino Griego.

610 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fastinthestraight, 5/1 Aggbag, 5/1 Ocean Of Peace, 8/1 Hecton Lad, 12/1 Jackson, 12/1 Lunar River, 12/1 Mayfair´s Future, 16/1 Inchando, 16/1 Rosy Dawn, 25/1 Dawson Creek, 25/1 Moment Of Clarity, 33/1 Kathleen Kennet, 33/1 Maydream, 33/1 Mighty Aphrodite.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Three recent course winners turn out under a penalty, the pick of them being the relatively unexposed FASTINTHESTRAIGHT who lived up to his name when accounting for Mayfair's Future ten days ago, picking up well down the home stretch to score with authority.[Steven Boow]

Ocean Countess's recent failure tells you all you need to know about the negatives regarding these low grade affairs - this is a 0-50 ( and literally next stop Blackpool pleasure beach) class 7 handicap. Fastinthestraight is a significant price gapper though at 11/8 - - - - 7/1 with only 4 under 14/1 but do we trust such poor quality horses?

640 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Jake The Snake, 7/2 Hinton Admiral, 9/2 Lastkingofscotland, 8/1 Slikback Jack, 25/1 Kenswick, 25/1 Silver Wind.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Back down in grade, this should be a good opportunity for JAKE THE SNAKE to record his seventh course success. Hinton Admiral can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]

This should be a 4 horse race for 2 places ( 2 outsiders at 20/1+ should be ignored?)

Go with Jake the Snake with George Baker who got the gamble home yesterday.

710 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Aloneinthestreet, 9/4 Kuala Limper, 7/1 Dorcas Lane, 9/1 Whodathought, 12/1 Malice Or Mischief, 20/1 Il Battista.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The improvement shown by the well-bred ALONEINTHESTREET (nap) on his handicap debut at Southwell last week was probably not down to the surface (he had shown promise over C&D on debut) and he can defy his penalty. Course winners Kuala Limper and Sammy Alexander can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]

Do we automatically place back Johnston/Fanning on the all weather at the moment? Yesterday's debutant in the maiden finished a close up 2nd at Southwelll, and Alone in the street is the one today. Only 2 places again which is a slight concern.

300 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Mongoose Alert, 3/1 Layla´s Dancer, 7/1 Quinsman, 14/1 Eton Fable.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MONGOOSE ALERT ran well in a stronger race at Wolverhampton on his first outing for his new stable and this return to a longer trip and the drop back into a claimer should see him return to winning ways. Layla's Dancer looks likeliest to chase him home.[Paul Smith]

4 horses and 2 places, but even better, one is 20/1 so this should be 3 horses for 2 places. Middle distance claimers are perhaps not the ideal betting mediums. Has won over 12 furlongs, today is 15 furlongs so distance should be no concern for Mongoose alert.

410 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Joe Le Taxi, 100/30 Chevise, 6/1 Captain Dimitrios, 6/1 Greenhead High, 6/1 Monsieur Jamie, 16/1 Toms River Tess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JOE LE TAXI has more on his plate off his revised mark against better opposition, but he is still open to a bit of improvement and he can complete his hat-trick at the main expense of Chevise and Monsieur Jamie. [Paul Smith]

Johnston/Fairley this time and Joe le Taxi is 10/11 - - - 9/2 in the live market and fancied to complete the hatrick although I am always concerned by multiple handicap winners running again under a penalty again. eventually the weight will catch up with them.

145 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Kells Belle, 5/2 The Cockney Mackem, 8/1 Flowerdew, 11/1 Lobby Ludd, 25/1 Medicine Man, 25/1 Practice Round, 28/1 High Kite, 28/1 Marvelous, 28/1 Singapore Storm, 33/1 Robello, 40/1 Dennis Doyle, 50/1 Onthelips, 66/1 Tild´or Du Granit, 100/1 Naughtyatiz, 100/1 Past Gambles.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lots of deadwood and hard to see beyond KELLS BELLE, a bumper winner on her debut and who sets a clear standard on her second to a decent winner in a Hereford novice on last month's hurdling debut. The Cockney Mackem is easily the biggest danger. [Mel Cullinan]

There must indeed be lots of deadwood with the betting market showing only 4 under 33/1. McCoy/Henderson again on Kells belle and I suspect the Cockney Mackem will be there at the business end. Usual caveat - clear round of jumping!

430 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Herons Well, 2/1 The Cool Guy, 7/1 Lisadell King, 10/1 Oopsmylord, 20/1 The General Lee, 25/1 Dust In Time, 25/1 New Team, 25/1 No Virtue, 33/1 Ice Bucket, 33/1 Oca De Thaix, 50/1 Gunnadoit, 50/1 Orphelin Collonges, 50/1 Overbury Pearl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lisadell King and Oopsmylord have place chances. However, this looks to be between just Herons Well and THE COOL GUY (nap) for the win, with the former having the best form over shorter distances and the latter suggesting he can be a major force at this level when he won at Cheltenham (3m1f) last May.[Richard Austen]

Hunters chase so jockeys an unknown but should concern the 4 only under 20/1 ( yet again barring accidents)

110 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Garde Champetre, 9/2 One Cool Cookie, 8/1 Lord Nellerie, 12/1 Benefit Night, 20/1 How Are Things, 20/1 Merry Cowboy, 25/1 The Speedy Man, 33/1 Olympe De Touzaine.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Enda Bolger has a virtual stranglehold on these events and his sole challenger GARDE CHAMPETRE is difficult to oppose seeking his first win since the end of 2009 with Grand National entry One Cool Cookie likely to give him most to do. [Brian Fleming]

8 runners and 3 places and old faithful, garde Champetre is strong market leader for Enda Bolger who is the cross country king of Cheltenham and Punchestown.

245 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 So Young, 9/2 Big Game Hunter, 6/1 The Pier, 14/1 Kilcrea Castle, 20/1 Moscow Storm, 50/1 Heavy Duty.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Cheltenham aspirations for SO YOUNG go on trial to an extent here and this race should give a clearer indication of what race to target at the Festival. None of these should trouble him unduly, although Big Game Hunter could keep him honest if on his best behaviour. [Justin OHanlon]

Should be a 3 horse race with 2 clear each way alternatives to So Young who should win for Mullins and , as an Irish horse, should handle heavy ground.

SHORTLIST
At the very beginning it must be stressed that all of these matches are friendlies , so there is a wealth warning here!

2pm - Andorra v Moldova - 1.3 away - Andorra consistently concede 2 goals -can we trust Moldova, in a friendly, to continue this tradition this afternoon? They surely should have too much on paper for the Andorrans.

2pm - San Marino v Liechtenstein - 1.51 away -8 of San Marino's last 12 matches have seen them concede more than 3 goals, indeed those 8 matches saw a minimum of 5 goals conceded. This makes the 1.51 away for Liechtenstein extremely alluring, until we realise it is, erm, Liechtenstein! Last 3 matches for Liechtenstein though showed promise, 2 1-1 draws and a very very late 2-1 loss to Scotland. If they can give Scotland a scare, they can certainly deal with San Marino.

635pm - South Africa v Kenya - 1.29 home - superb year last year for the South Africans should see a first team beat Kenya. Team news key for me. Kenya have had a lot of close matches but are these close matches flattered by the quality( or lack rather) of the opposition?

715pm - Luxembourg v Slovakia - 1.28 away - the Lux under 21's were similarly priced yesterday and lost 6-0. But this Luxembourg have managed 2 0-0 home draws lately - a sign of stubborness at home? Slovakia had some good moments in the World Cup and any reproduction of those performances should see them draw first blood.

730pm - Malta v Switzerland - 1.34 away - the Malteser's record in their last 12 is poor and , again, if the Swiss show the goalscoring prowess of their win against Wales, they could bring home the odds this evening.

730pm - Netherlands v Austria - 1.38 home - a 32 match unbeaten run is unlikely to be ended by the Austrians this evening. No Van Persie is a big blow to Netherlands as I don't really have faith in headless chicken Kuyt. Still , Huntelaar, Van Der Vaart, Robben ( if playing) et al should get this one sorted this evening and with home advantage those in orange expect a win.
Team news will determine my final strategy here. It seems we have a choice - win or draw for the Dutch this evening!

830pm - Spain v Colombia - 1.2 - you will be aware that Spain have not won the last 3 friendlies - infact they have conceded 8 in their last 2 friendlies. But at home, they won their 4 recent friendlies and I expect the fact this match is at home to be the telling factor. We may be made to wait, and ideally I would want team news as I would with the Dutch. The sight of Pedro , a genuine goal machine, would be most welcome. Columbia largely unknown quantities
1.42 to place

300 LINGFIELD - this is very tempting - Mongoose alert in a 4 horse race for 2 places - 1.17 to place

145 LUDLOW - hope that this is dominated by the 4 under 20/1 here with Kelle's Belles the obvious choice. - 1.15 to place with a clear round as ever.

110 PUNCHESTOWN - 1.09 for Garde Champetre to place is a little stingy so the value would seem to be 2nd favourite here One Cool Cookie each way

245 PUNCHESTOWN - 1.12 to place for So Young is quite generous for such a strong favourite. Only 2 places .1.3 to win for this possibly Cheltenham bound horse.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Niggles? Friendlies and heavy ground at Punchestown.

2pm - San Marino v Liechtenstein - 1.51 away - one for the speculators, 8 of San Marino's last 12 matches have seen them concede 5 or more. We can chance that Liechtenstein can add to this by at least scoring first ( San Marino have not scored in their last 12 internationals.) As poor as Liechtenstein are, they have at least posted good recent results against far stronger opponents.

730pm - Malta v Switzerland - 1.34 away - the home side's poor form in last 12 and a replication of the Swiss performance against Wales recently should see an away win. niggles with this match and Liechtenstein's is the fact that both are away from home.

730pm - Netherlands v Austria - 1.38 home - I am continuously drawn to this match. 32 matches unbeaten for Netherlands and home ( as opposed to the above 2 matches) advantage. 5 score draws in last 10 away matches for Austria - they either lose or draw away. Note this - if Austria score first the Netherlands are likely to reply with an equaliser.
I cannot see anything in an Austrian side to trouble the Dutch. Ideally team news for me to see the strength or otherwise in what is a friendly match only.


830pm - Spain v Colombia - 1.2 - could not beat the last 2 South American friendly sides, but perhaps a hangover after winning the World Cup. World Cup fever should pervade tonight. Spain are rock solid at home ( only aberation 1-0 loss to Swiss) -team news will gauge my confidence.

145 LUDLOW - Kelle's Belles at 1.15 looks great to place here in a race of only 4 under 33/1!! McCoy/Henderson and a clear round should suffice.

245 PUNCHESTOWN - 1.12 to place for So Young is a very good price relative to his win only price. Needs a clear round in heavy ground ( but should be used to heavy ground as he is an Irish horse) , this Cheltenham bound horse should win well .

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

8/2

I quite fancy the Irish this evening in a glorified friendly but want to see team news before committing. The same could be said of the Spanish, but I am so taken by the goal concession rate of the Danish last 6 matches, that I will go with the Spanish today. Yes, hands up, I am betting in a friendly so am prepared to swear loudly if this does not come off, but I expect Spain to win with a strong squad and a smattering of the Barca youngsters who are devastating.

*****730pm - Spain U21 v Denmark U21 - back Spain at 1.33 currently.*****
A friendly so team news ideal and I may update if I can get further information. At the price though, this is worth backing. It is this or Quantitative easing at 1.2 in the win only market.
Let's hope Denmark continue to concede 2 or more as readily as they have in their last 6 matches.


I am glad I left Vino Griego alone as the "heavy" element played its part yesterday for the beginner chasers. The seller saw the value placer Unlimited win I think, but yesterday was poor quality fare.

6pm - Luxembourg U21 v Austria U21 - 1.4 - are these minnows opposable on all levels?This is a proper int'l. Lux have kept it tight of late with 3 1-0's , 2 of them wins . Lux look to be more able to compete at this level than the first team at full international level.3 wins and 2 losses in last 5 matches would be unheard of for the first team.
No draw in 11 matches a good stat to take with us for Luxembourg - they either win or they lose?
Austria have only lost 3 in their last 12, and 2 losses in last 3 were away to UK sides Wales and Scotland.
DLWWLLWW at home entering 2010 is very encouraging for Luxembourg , relatively speaking.
There is nothing to suggest that Luxembourg will get hammered today and a lay of Austria might even be the way initially for traders, if Luxembourg can continue their tight recent matches.

745pm - Rep of Ireland v Wales - 1.73 home - an international friendly so caution re team news etc, but Wales with Gareth Bale as compared to Wales without Gareth Bale will be the deciding factor. Immediately again, Ireland look layable at 1.73 . The teams last met in 2007 so the head to heads pretty redundant given changes in personnel since then.
No draw in 12 for Wales and 2 draws only in 12 for Ireland immediately point to one team winning and one team losing!! Or given there have only been 2 draws in 24 matches, sequentially we should be expecting a draw.
LWWLWWLDL for Ireland since 2010 in all competitions ( friendlies and meaningful) recent losses against Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Norway. We can excuse the first 2 I would suggest.
LWWLWLL at home since 2010 for Ireland - now compare that to their away form - DDDWWWD - so Ireland do draw just not when they are at home.
5 of Ireland's last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals - a sign we can trust goals?
5 losses in last 6 for Wales - LLWLLL away as well -no draws in last 12 away matches for Wales.
It is tough to gauge collateral form and attitude going into friendlies, but the stats indicate both sides are draw shy.

135 MARKET RASEN

BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Higgy´s Ragazzo, 3/1 Lamps, 7/1 Sir Pitt, 20/1 Kayaan, 33/1 Verluga, 50/1 Always De One, 50/1 Brink.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lamps stayed on very well for second on heavy going at Sandown and that looks decent form, but he got a long way behind and will surely be highly vulnerable on good ground here if the Nicky Henderson-trained HIGGY'S RAGAZZO, who was fairly useful on the Flat, makes an adequate hurdling debut.[Richard Austen]

Only 3 under 20/1 and slight shortening for Lamps. Higgy's is a newcomer to hurdles.

235 MARKET RASEN

BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Quantitativeeasing, 5/1 Fin Vin De Leu, 8/1 Springfield Raki.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUANTITATIVEEASING is potentially smart and looks a cut above his two rivals. Barring accidents, he should take this weak contest with ease before making his mark back in stronger company.[Steven Boow]

No ground concerns today and an exciting prospect for Nicky Henderson. Only 3 horses so , again, you get a far better payout on sussing out who will place 2nd. " barring accidents" reminds us that the horse has to complete of course. " he looks to have a promising chase career ahead of him" so said the race analyst last chase win. Won on heavy on that occasion and a liking for heavy. Today's ground is good. The hope is that the horse finds this good ground agreeble.

225 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Warrior One, 5/2 Vivaldi, 11/4 Any Given Moment, 8/1 Turf Trivia, 12/1 Cloudy Too, 25/1 Borderhopper, 25/1 Sir Tamburlane, 33/1 Chichina, 40/1 Napoletano, 50/1 Westwire Toby, 66/1 Farmer Henry, 66/1 Young Firth.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Three stand out in a race which many are impossible to fancy. There are ifs and buts about all three on one count or another but if WARRIOR ONE lasts out the 2m4f he has the form to take this, possibly at the main expense of Vivaldi. Any Given Moment is the other major protagonist.[Mel Cullinan]

4 under 16/1 here with Warrior One and Vivaldi dominating at time of writing.

315 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Striking The Wind, 7/2 Ezra Church, 5/1 Eilean Mor, 6/1 Vantaa, 8/1 Embassy Pearl, 12/1 Mecca´s Team, 20/1 Osgoodisgood, 25/1 Mcbirney, 66/1 Ever Roses, 100/1 Speed Awareness.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston has been mopping up on the AW this year (18-39), including with horses having their first run on Fibresand, and his STRIKING THE WIND is of obvious interest in a modest maiden on his debut. Ezra Church has the best form of his rivals but needs to bounce back now switched in surface.[Adrian Cook]

Only 6 under 20/1 here and Striking Wind of obvious interest for Johnston/Fanning. As Spotlight tells you, he has been imperious on the all weather. A debutant and a surface debutant so a degree of faith. I seem to recall Eilean Mor from a previous race where he got a mention in the message. 2 2nds already and he seems to me the ready alternative if you don't trust debutants on Southwell's fibresand.

Pretty damning analysis of 2 runs ago for Eilean "

Eilean Mor, making his debut for Bryan Smart, had his limitations exposed. He is not up to winning a maiden and is probably flattered by his official rating."

2nd in the betting currently and has had 2 Southwell runs. This is effectively a 50/50 race with 6 under 20/1 - 3 will place and 3 will not place.

415 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ace Master, 9/2 Katherine Parr, 9/2 Three Opera Divas, 8/1 Jack´s Revenge, 10/1 Dance For Livvy, 10/1 Mini´s Destination, 16/1 Amore Et Labore, 20/1 Kwik Lightening, 20/1 Littlepromisedland, 20/1 Willow´s Wish, 25/1 Evelyns Diamond, 33/1 Come On Eileen, 33/1 Jam Maker.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty going handicapping for the first time but few of them have shown much and Katherine Parr looks most interesting of them. Mark Johnston's Three Opera Divas has to be of interest up in trip given the yard's fine form but ACE MASTER has solid handicap form over shorter here this winter and looks well worth a try at this trip.[Adrian Cook]

Massive gamble on Jack's Revenge here , into 11/10 and strong market leader. Has George Baker, all weather specialist booked

SHORTLIST
745pm - Rep of Ireland v Wales - 1.73 home - the draw is currently 3.65 or thereabouts. Laying the draw for stake as fixed liability ( using £100 as an example) will win me around £30, so this is a 1.3 equivalent back bet.

This is based on the fact there have only been 2 draws in both teams last 12 matches ( 2 draws in total in 24 matches)

Ireland do their drawing away, and Wales have not drawn a match away in their last 12 - in fact the last draw Wales had was in November 2007 , some 26 matches ago. Ireland's last draw should have been a win with a missed Keane 2nd half penalty leaving a 1-1 scoreline.

It is tempting but then can we not throw all this out of the window because friendlies are unpredictable! Team news will be important this evening.No Bellamy for Wales surely should put things in ireland's favour?

730pm - Spain U21 v Denmark u21 - 1.33 - not on the Betfair coupon that I was reading , I only spotted this going through the matches on Fairbot. Should be a comfortable Spanish win. Look at the youngsters at Barca for an indication of the quality Spain have through all levels.

9 wins, 2 losses and a draw in last 12 for Spain.4 match winning streak, 6 match unbeaten run. Denmark have not won in 7 matches, LLLDDLL 3,3,2,1,3,3 conceded in last 6 matches for Denmark and anything approaching a full strength Under 21 Spain outfit will have them for breakfast.

Why was this match not on the Betfair Tuesday Coupon but on the Tuesday In play coupon only?

135 MARKET RASEN - like Vino Griego's race yesterday - 3 under 20/1 and 2 obvious each way alternatives ( would have paid off yesterday as both finished 1st and 2nd - this is what we wait for with value each way betting, for a favourite to underperform) Around 1.15 to place for Higgy's Regazzo - a horse not yet met a hurdleunder race conditions.

235 MARKET RASEN - you are wither with Quantitative Easing or you are not! Take the short place, hope there are no accidents and collect. 1.2 to win and 1.08 to place - 1.08 covers 2/3rd of the outcomes and a clear round should bring it home.

Is it worth chancing 1.2 for the win given it is only 3 competing and McCoy onboard for a horse with a few chase runs under his belt and spoken of very highly. The better returns are in sussing out who finishes 2nd. If going with the market, then Fin Vin de Leu is 2nd favourite and 1.51 to place.

315 SOUTHWELL

21211 last 5 horses out for Mark Johnston at Southwell , which is why Striking Wind is the default favourite here despite being a race debutant and a course debutant. 1.22 to place with Eilean Mor, my fancy alternative, 1.44 to place. This maiden should revolve around the 6 horses under 20/1 in the betting forecast , making it a 50/50 race - 6 horses for 3 places.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Rep of Ireland v Wales - 1.73 home - there are a number of angles with which I would approach this match.

1) Back Ireland at 1.73 and hope they score first , to trade out.

2) Lay the Draw. Draws do not seem to register for Wales ( last draw Nov 2007) Possibility to trade here too if 1-0 going into the last quarter of an hour.

730pm - Spain U21 v Denmark u21 - 1.33 - if this is not a Spain win, I can say " why the feck were you not disciplined enough to leave friendlies alone?" but look at Denmark's concession rate recently - 3,3,2,1,3,3 in their last 6 matches and the likes of Pedro , if playing, should have a field day.
I would recommend trading if Spain lead late on or it is 2-0 to Spain at any stage.

235 MARKET RASEN - you are either with these types of bet or you are not. And I am inclined to be for Quantitativeeasing today, he did me ok last time out and I would hope ( that is all I can do) that there are no accidents , and point to the good chase jumping in his last race to hope a clear round will produce a win. 1.2 to win and 1.08 to place

315 SOUTHWELL - Striking the wind could be the 6th Johnston horse recently to finish 1st or 2nd. Or he could fluff his lines, being a debutant both to racing and to Southwell's unique all weather surface. Not for me today but could be worth taking on with Eilean Mor to place?

415 SOUTHWELL - Massive gamble on Jack's Revenge - tongue tie on and George Baker booked. Looks like the stable have a couple of shillings on. Make of this what you will ( 8/1 in the betting forecast and 11/10 strong favourite)

7/2

Soft ( heavy in places) ground at Lingfield puts a dampener on the beginners chase I think will go to Vino Griego . 1.17 to place, the horse is the only one under evens and if the market is any indication he must dominate, dropping in class markedly to class 5 from class 2 and class 3 novice chases.
I hate the word " heavy" in any ground desriptions and will not be betting today. It is a poor day all in all. The 505 Wolves is a great probability race with 3 places still on Betfair despite 7 runners but it is a poor seller.

***** ONE A DAY - no bet, simply put off by the soft ( heavy in places) .I expect Vino Griego to place with his chase experience but only 2 places and he has not run on soft recently *****
Yesterday all the teams performed as their odds suggest, with Groningen emphatic.

4pm - OFI v Ionikos - 1.29 home - Greek 2nd division is hardly top of my list of leagues I want to bet in.

205 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Vino Griego, 9/2 Spear Thistle, 11/2 General Kutuzov, 16/1 Sweet Seville, 16/1 Upham Atom, 50/1 Medellin, 66/1 Fillyofthevalley.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VINO GRIEGO's recent placed form in novice handicaps has come in much better races than this and he really should win with something to spare, albeit at skinny odds. General Kutuzov is preferred to Spear Thistle for forecast seekers.[Mel Cullinan]

Only 3 under 20/1 here and Vino Griego has hardened at the head of the betting. I have been discussing recently the idea of the value each way alternative when we have a race similar to this. The only problem is that there are only 2 places on offer, but the each way alternatives are obviously Spear Thistle and General Kutuzov

This is a beginners chase and the L plates are on . Further, soft ground at Lingfield may point to some potential problems if it gets heavier.

235 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Not Til Monday, 6/4 Cresswell Crusader, 13/2 Cuckoo Pen, 12/1 Spiritual Art, 40/1 Justalittlebitmore, 40/1 Taylors Secret, 50/1 Easter Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not Til Monday will do for many after winning easily in a Plumpton novice last time but the concession of 12lb - including Rachael Green's 5lb allowance - will be tough if CRESSWELL CRUSADER can show anything approximating his bumper form first time out over hurdles.[Mel Cullinan]

Another 7 runner race and more novices only this time over hurdles. 4 under 66/1 should fight out for 2 places on offer. It is a mystery to me how Spotlight can equate bumper form with hurdles. Bumpers are simply flat races, nothing more, nothing less so you cannot really gauge how a horse will jump hurdles based on a flat race!!

Ideally should be 3 for 2 places here

330 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Orpenindeed, 9/2 Unlimited, 12/1 Silver Wind, 14/1 Bellomi, 25/1 St Ignatius, 100/1 Champagne All Day, 100/1 Mon Mon.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ORPENINDEED has been pretty reliable in low grade for previous trainers and is clear pick at the weights, though The Big Haerth and Unlimited are credible threats.[Paul Johnson]

7 runners and still 3 places on Betfair. But dare we trust horses in sellers?

Only 4 under 25/1 , orpenindeed is 4/9 and Unlimited at 7/2 is nearest rival. The latter is a tasty 1.3 to place but I remind you that these horses are in sellers not because they are future Epsom Derby hopes.

505 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Shamardal Phantom, 11/4 Christmas Coming, 11/1 Arco Felice, 12/1 Cloudy Bay, 12/1 Hide The Evidence, 12/1 Pride Of Mine, 50/1 Better Be Blue, 66/1 Charlie´s Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Such are the apparent limitations of the opposition that SHAMARDAL PHANTOM is taken to secure that vital win to boost her paddocks value even though her stamina is by no means guaranteed on pedigree. Christmas Comingdisappointed on his return to the fray but still looks the one beat.[Paul Johnson]

These should be the ideal place only races - 8 runners - 3 places and only 4 under 20/1 A maiden race, Shamardal Phantom has the form to place again. Sharp step up in trip from 9 furlongs to 12 furlongs. That is almost like entering a different kind of race!

SHORTLIST
What a difficult day. If it's not 2 places in beginner chases, it's 3 places in sellers or a Greek Division 2 match. I have looked at the other matches today and there are no clear cut stats in them which I would take from the matches.

205 LINGFIELD - 1.17 to place for Vino Griego is very enticing but we must realise this is a beginners chase and the horse has not run on soft since 27th February 2010. On the plus side, Vino has run over chase fences last 4 races without tipping up. And he has been running in class 2 and class 3 ( today is class 5) . Only 2 places so any mistakes will be punished. He has the chase experience which is some comfort here.
My concern is whether the ground is soft as advertised or worse?

Prophetic words from the race analyst from Vino's last run
"perhaps it would be in the horse´s interests to gain a confidence-boosting victory in a minor novice chase at one of the lesser tracks"

330 WOLVES must get a mention as this is now a 7 runner race with Betfair still paying out on the 3 places. Orpenindeed is fancied in the market but the value would seem to lie with 2nd fav Unlimited

505 WOLVES - Sharmadal Phantom retains favouratism despite going markedly up in trip from 9 furlongs to 1 mile 4 furlong ( 12 furlongs) - that's some leap and a leap of faith that stamina lasts. As Spotlight rightly pointed out, it must be a weak race if this one is a strong market leader going up so much in trip.







--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94