*****ONE A DAY - 130pm - Groningen v Willem II -back Groningen in the match odds at 1.24*****
Disappointing yesterday as France and Ireland double was favoured but Betfair was down. At any rate, a team on a strong winning run losing to bottom basement was a shock.
Frustrating day as the analysis was good in places. The 1-1 Sint Truiden scoreline ended, warning re Wolves form against top sides, and most frustrating was the Man City price against West Brom. I was put off by the big price, but should have kept the faith.
Is it any coincidence that the firstmatch day after transfer month produces so many goals? The word hedge was used for some matches and would have served well yesterday , e.g. Bayern were 2-0 up at Koln before losing 3-2. It was 0-0 in the 90th minute between PSV and ADO De Haag, before a last minute Den Haag winner ( the odds for Den HAag would have incresead dramatically), Man Uts scored first against Wolves and the odds for Wolves would have increased dramatically. So whenever doing multiples, try to include in play teams and try to hedge.
1pm - Olympiakos v Xanthi - 1.22 home - top v 11th 4 1-0's in last 8 wins a signal this is Greece. 8 match winning sequence. Won all at home. Lost only 3 all season and of course away from home.
Last 2 wins were 1-0 for Oly, away from home. Only just winning. 5,3,2,2,4 the goals scored by Oly at home in last 5 matches.
Easy wins against teams in Xanthi's section of the league.
Xanthi have lost 2 and drawn 1 against the 3 top 3 sides they have played away from home.
4 losses in last 5 for Xanthi.
It looks like an easy home win here, but this weekend has seen some amazing results.
1-0, 0-0, 3-0 last 3 head to heads. 2 of them have been tight and that is a slight concern.
130pm - Groningen v Willem II - 1.24 home - overs in last 3 head to head with Groningen winning 3-0 and 4-0 last 2 meetings. Comprehensive.
With PSV losing yesterday, ideal opportunity to get 3 points nearer than they expected. In with a realistic chance of the title ( based upon top 3 slipping up and Groningen taking advantage)
9 wins at home and only losses were against 2nd and 3rd so ideally placed today.
WWWWWWWWWL at home - loss was against twente so not unexpected.
Only 1 win all season for Willem II was aw home. Conceded 2 or more in all bar one away match .
5-0, 3-1, 2-1, 2-1 last 4 scorelines away for Willem II
2pm - Napoli v Cesena - 1.33 home - 2nd v 18th of 20 - 4 goals scored in last 2 head to heads in Napoli's favours.WWWWWDW at home last 7. 2 draws last 2 matches. Napoli , although good at home, are unconvincing
2pm - Trabzonspor v Antalyaspor - 1.36 home - remember Bursaspor needed to win and did, well now it's Trab's turn. WWWDWWD at home for Trab and a win takes them top again.
0-0 in head to heads. Lost 4-1 and 2-1 against 3rd and 5th.
6pm - Real Madrid v Sociedad - 1.18 home - when Barca are priced at 1.18, you don't worry. When Real are priced at 1.18, you do worry. But they are at home, and there can be only 2 outcomes, a win or draw, as Mourinho has not lost a home league match since 1864. 100% home win record.http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=7312132027572261300&postID=8302544137789839558
No draw in 19 so perhaps lay the draw today.LWLLWL away for Sociedad
615pm - Porto v Rio Ave - 1.16 home - far more reliable betting propositions are Porto. Porto 1st b Rio Ave 14th. Only 2 away draws have stopped 100% wins this year. 4,3,3 scored by Porto at home last 3, and surely they are reliable enough, but we saw with United that winning sequences end sometime, it's just when do they end?
Against top 7 away, Rio Ave have lost 5-2, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 . Apart from Benfica, that's some defensive performances.
SUPERBOWL - this is likely to be a great match for traders. I would instinctively back the biggest priced team and hope they lead at some stage in order to take advantage of the change in price.
220 FONTWELL - more cut and paste issues so I cannot recount the betting forecast. This race sees 4 under 33/1 and Captain Kirkton primed to place. Another race where 2nd and 3rd can be considered each way place value alternatives.
SHORTLIST
1pm - Olympiakos v Xanthi - 1.22 home - should be a home win - slight concern with the 4 1-0's in last 8.
130pm - Groningen v Willem II - 1.24 home - PSV lost yesterday - Groningen must take advantage
6pm - Real Madrid v Sociedad - 1.18 home - no draw in 19 for Sociedad means default to Real, but they have been highly inconsistent.
615pm - Porto v Rio Ave - 1.16 home - concern with the 1-0's and 0-0 's Rio Ave have managed against top 7
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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One A Day
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Sunday, 6 February 2011
Friday, 4 February 2011
5/2
Looks like a football day today. Binocular should win , in the horse racing but look to 2nd place for the best returns.Loose preformer has a great place only chance but I cannot check the market as Betfair is down.
Football wise, there are some very appealing bigger odds bets in Man City at 1.47, Man Utd at 1.48 away, and Villareal at 1.28.
Safer bets appear to be Barcelona at 1.16, and a potential lay may be Marseille at 1.16, as their recent goalscoring record is poor.
Everton v Blackpool should see goals and I would lump Everton in with The bigger odds selections at 1.38, given they have scored 2,2,2,1 in their last 4 matches.
6 nations and backing France and Ireland in a double with Betfair pays out 1.27 and that is vrey appealing indeed.
***** 7pm - Villareal v Levante - back Villareal in the Match Odds at 1.28*****
Yes, before you ask, my Mum's Sunday Best fits me fine, a bit tight around the manboobs, but I think I look great in it. Yes, Fortuna and Zwolle was amazingly 0-0, and I am angry with myself for not taking the poor 2011 Zwolle form for what it was, poor form full stop!
Those who followed me on Credit crunched earlier got 1.42 at the off, and far better earlier on. He placed 2nd and was a welcome boost.
Bursaspor had to win, and did win 2-1.
2pm - Bangor City v Haverfordwest - 1.2 home - dominant in head to heads with 6-0 win this year already, the question is wether Bangor are up for the Cup. Haverford have lost their last 4. Goals could be the call here judged by head to heads. Also remember a team soundly thrashed has an opportunity to tighten its defence and ensure another 6-0 is not forthcoming.
2pm - Besiktas v Karabukspor - 1.37 home - 5th and 13 points off the pace are Besiktas playing 11th today. Besiktas, at home, have been beaten by 7th and 9th, and it is therefore entirely probable that they can be beaten by 11th at home. Besiktas seem to have a sticky patch against mid table opposition.
Against 10th and below, though, they are unbeaten, but against above 10th, they have only won 1 home and away. Karabukspor are 11th so are on the cusp of both section!! WDDWDW last 6 matches at home so they are not losing.
DDDLLLLL for Karabukspor away from home is a big contributing factor to Besiktas being such strong favourites without necessarily setting the world on fire with their home form.
2,5,2,3,4 conceded by Karabukspor away last 5 shows they are in trouble at the back. They have aloready been beaten by Besitkas 4-1 this season and this ties in with recent away goal concessions.
80% of Karab's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. It would seem Karab are newcomers to the top flight in Turkey.
230pm - FC Koln v B Munich - 1.55 away - 16th against 3rd ( and could go 2nd with a win away). Miles away from runaway leaders Dortmund, Bayern can still go 2nd . Koln have lost 3 at home, and done most of their losing away from home. They have only played Dortmund of the top 6 at home and lost 2-1. Difficult to really gauge how Koln set up against the big boys.LWDLWLDWL makes Koln a little unreadable from a betting perspective. Their last match was a 3-0 defeat by St Pauli. If this is true to form, and Bayern beat St Pauli 3-0, then Bayern must batter this lot into submission. I think Robben might be playing as well, and he's worth a goal or 2.
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - defensive naivete and attacking promise will only get you so far! The wheels are falling off for Blackpool. I missed another over 2.5 goals at home mid week much to my disgust. away they have played differently.A win can take Everton as high as 10th ( other results going their way too). 3 points is much needed. This is the shortest price I remember against Blackpool for some time, which is testament to the poor form.
3 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats at home for Everton..Poor form.12 draws in total this season is 12 points from a possible 36. That's why they are where they are.2,2,2,1 scored in their last 4 matches show Everton are in reasonable form of late. They scored first against Arsenal away before succumbing. You would think they could score first against Blackpool.
DLLDWD not exactly the home form that would have you emptying the bank account and lumping on Everton. A 2-2 draw at Blackpool again warns against another D!
6 losses in last 7 for Blackpool and they have hit the "wall".
Blackpool's last 6 matches were over 2.5 goals ( albeit 5 at home and 1 away). Their recent solidity away was broken by conceding 3 against West Brom where previously they had let in only 1 in 3 away .
Blackpool have conceded 3,2,3,3 last 3 matches so expect goals today? Everton are priced to score , that's for sure.
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - without much research I could foresee goals here. WLWWW last 5 for City at home - they scored 4 against Villa and Wolves. Look great enhanced bet territory if West Brom score first. All 3 West Brom matches away to top 4 have been over 2.5 goals.
2,2,3,2,3,3,2,2 conceded by West Brom in their last 8 matches and that is mighty consistent concession of goals.
3pm - Stranraer v Motherwell - 1.41 away - Division 3 v Premiership and I keep saying it, I love seeing big gaps in Cup matches. Although Motherwell have lost their last 3, 2 were 1-0's in a better league. 4 of Stranraer's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals ( in the Cup and in Division 3) so this hints at vulnerability at the back.
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away - knee jerk reaction? - Quite a generous price for an unbeaten United, but factors in the away draws they have accumulated. Man Utd have won the last 6 head to heads, but there is only one recent head to head at Wolves, and that was in 2010 , a 1-0 win for United.
One thing I noted from the highlights of Wolves' last game was how good their goalkeeper Hennessey was. But one thing I noticed from United's last match was how good Shrek was, scoring 2.
Wolves have a game in hand over 2nd and 3rd from bottom so could sneak up 2 places to 3rd from bottom with a win. United have a nice 5 point cushion over the chasing pack.
This match is, as you can imagine, top versus bottom.
The ridiculous back pass in the last match ensured Wolves are now 16 games without a draw. This really is a massive stat, but when will it end? How about against a team who keep drawing away from home?
LLLLWLWLWLWLLL in their recent matche for Wolves. They alternated between winning and drawing but have returned to a losing streak of 3 currently.
At home against the top 6, Wolves lost 2-0 to Arsenal but beat Man City 2-1, beat Chelsea 1-0 ( but this is a different Chelsea now) , and beat Sunderland 3-2.
Man Utd must be aware that Wolves seem to raise their game at home to the big boys.
LLWWLWL at home last 7 matches for Wolves. Yes, they don't do draws currently.
In running players beware. Wolves have conceded 13 times in the last 15 minutes of matches ( they need Stevie Gerrard to send round some Lucozade)
8 draws and 3 wins away from home for United - imagine if those draws had been turned into 3 points, they may as well give the title to them!
DDDWDW last 6 matches and interestingly United are playing the 3 promoted sides away in recent matches. They beat West Brom away, beat Blackpool away famously, and now face Wolves. 3 wins out of 3?
Man Utd have conceded 5 goals in the first half all season so they should be the first goalscorers first half? Back United in the NEXT GOAL market?
3 game winning streak for United sees them scoring 5,3,3 ( 1 away v Blackpool). Surely they have too much for a struggling Wolves side?
6pm - Marseille v Arles - 1.18 home - home team are one of 6 teams separated by 2 points just outside of the top 2 in a tight challenging group at the head of the league. When priced, therefore, at 1.18, and at home, they must take the 3 points to manoevre themselves out of this merry band. 5th playing bottom of the league , Marseille have drawn 4 of their last 5 ( remember I ignored Zwolle's poor recent form when they were expected to score and win last night) and seem to find goalscoring poor of late. How about this for a poor goalscoring record recently for Marseille 0,0,1,1,0,2,0. 2 0-0's in their last 3, albeit away from home. Marseille have won the 5 home matches played against 6th to 15th in the league but struggle with the top and bottom of the leagues, with 2 draws against 2nd and 3rd from bottom. DWDDW in last 5 home matches.
Arles have only one win all season and with Marseille beating them 3-0 already this season, and Arles coincidentally losing away 4-1,4-0,3-1 to the 3 top 6 teams they have played away, the draw problems for marseille could be resolved this evening. Because of this draw problem, the only option would be a trading one. Alternatively, for a bit of value, look to over 3.5 goals if you think that Marseille can replicate their 3 goals despite being a little goal shy of late.
Arles have scored only 11 all season so a goal from Marseille could seal matters.
645pm - PSV v ADO Den Haag - 1.31 home - top by 1 point to Twente so another must win with home advantage , otherwise the door is open to twente and Ajax to creep nearer and eventually overtake. PSV at home have dropped points against 2nd and 4th only and won the rest. Great evidence to back them today?WWLWWWW recent home form 3,10,0,4,5,3,2, scored by PSV in those matches. Apart from scoring none against Twente, they have been consistently scoring 2 or more goals.
PSV have not played 7,th,8th,9th,10th at home yet, ( ADO are 7th) so we cannot really see them perform against teams similar to ADO in the league.
2-2 away draw when they met this season, so goals a safer option perhaps? 82% of home matches over 2.5 goals for PSV. Opposition have only led at halftime in 9.5% of matches - yet again NEXT GOAL PSV appeals?
ADO have only lost 4 matches away from home, but did lose against 2nd and 4th, and beat 3rd ( Ajax) 1-0.
LLWDLDW away for ADo of late. May look ok, but the wins have come against bottom 3 sides.
Current winning streak of 3, but these 3 are the bottom 3 so take this winning streak with a pinch of salt.
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home - as we know Genk drew 1-1 and this has aided Anderlecht no end - 3 points clear. it is a tight top 3 so if Anderlecht are at home and so short, they must win. St Truiden were the team who went against the stats v Genk and scored in the first half. They drew against Genk and that was some feat given Genk were so solid at home.
Draws at home have come against 4th,5th and 10th and they have won the rest including a 2-0 away win at St Truiden.
13 match unbeaten run and WDWDWW at home latest .2 1-1 draws on the trot now for St Truiden, and guess who they were against? Yes, 2nd and 3rd. A potential niggle here. Surely the probability is against drawing the top 3 1-1 on 3 consecutive matches?
Against 3rd to 7th, St Truiden have lost away. Anderlecht are shorter than Genk were mid week ( when Genk scored first) 1-1 looks layable -it could occur of course but probability wise, it would be something!
Only one win away for St Truiden was against bottom side.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - the yellow submarines have the in form Guiseppe Rossi banging in the goals and look real contenders this year. Within touching distance of a poorly inconsistent Real Madrid side who I wouldn't back with an IMF bailout at the moment. 5 match winning streak at home for Villareal. Have won 7 and lost 2 in last 9 ( 2 losses away, one to Real Madrid) 10 wins and a single draw at home for Villareal. They now expect to win at home. Levante are 18th and against 17th and 19th at home, Villareal have won 2-0 both times.
No draw in 9 for Villareal - lay the draw?
5 game losing streak for Levante ended with a home win against Getafe.
8 losses, 2 draws and a sole win away from home. Levante have scored in 9 of 11 matches away from home, so enhanced traders get ready to pounce if Levante take the lead.
The form points to a Villareal win which takes them to within 3 points of Real madrid ) although Real are playing this evening too) I think.LLLLDLLL away for Levante. Looks like can't win away v can't stop winning at home.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - they usually deliver at this price with a win and with goals. Fortuna v Zwolle 0-0 taught us there is no such thing as a sure thing though! I still have to do my research.15 match winning run in the league and can heap more misery on Real by beating Athletico Madrid. Last 13 Barca matches have been overs and a 2nd string beat Almeria with ease in the Cup. Enhance odds with halftime/fulltime or over 2.5, even over 3.5 goals. Athletico have already lost 2-1 to Barca , and lost away to 2nd and 3rd 2-0, so expect the same this evening. LWLL last 4 away , win was against bottom side Malaga.
The only puzzle we need answering is whether to enhance the odds with ht/ft barca/barca or goals bets.
6 nations sees Italy v Ireland (1.17) and france v Scotland (1.17 France). Immediately I am drawn to the double. Odds of 1.27 are perfectly reasonable with Betfair Multiples. I am not a big egg chasing expert but I suspect we can oppose a 1.35 favourite for the wooden spoon and 2nd fav for that particular accolade ( Scotland) away from home.
MULTIPLE?
A reasonable lay multiple covering the draw in all matches. To boost the odds further consider taking one lay out and replacing it with Barcelona win . Some risks with cup matches and away sides ( Bayern and Motherwell) but has a good chance of coming in. No Real Madrid to cock this one up!!
130 FFOS LAS
1.21 over 1.5 goals will include both sides. 80% of karab's away matches are over 2.5 goals, and this is most likely a draw or home win.
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - 6 losses in last 7 for Blackpool - reality finally dawning? The shortest price for some time against Blackpool. Everton have scored 2,2,2,1 last 4 matches and should be able to score first?1.19 over 1.5 goals and 1.58 over 2.5 goals.
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - title contenders should be beating promoted sides at home. 1.47 very enticing. Perhaps a safer bet is the over 1.5 goals at 1.24 or the over 1.5 goals ( to trade) at 1.74
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away- standout stats? United are unbeaten this season. United have conceded 5 goals in the first half all season ( and 2 of them were against Blackpool!) Ultra strong stat that indicates United are the most likeliest first goal scorers? NEXT GOAL market is illiquid.
Enhanced traders? If Wolves score first, consider laying them or backing United. Will United break the away draw hoodoo? This is the 3rd of the promoted sides they are playing very recently and they are 2/2 currently. A clean sweep with a win over Wolves.
I would consider backing Man Utd at 1.48 to trade.
645pm - PSV v ADO Den Haag - 1.31 home - in only 9.5% of matches are PSV's opponents leading at half time -back PSV NEXT GOAL? - illiquid market again alas. Must win really for PSV and should win. 82% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals so over 1.5 goals at 1.13 is obvious, 1.42 over 2.5 goals and 2.02 over 3.5 goals for speculative traders.
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home - stick or twist? An intriguing match. Sint Truiden have drawn 1-1 with both 2nd and 3rd in the league in their last 2 matches. Anderlecht are top and are their next match. Surely it is too much to expect that Sint Truiden draw 1-1 again and complete the hatrick against the top 3? 1-1 is 15.5 if you think they can defy the probability!
1.19 Anderlecht and the market priced them up a lot lower than they did with Genk at home to Sint Truiden. The market thinks this 3rd 1-1 against top 3 sides will not come to fruition today.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - LEvante have lost 7 of last 8 away and Villareal are on a 5 match winning streak. Solid at home, Villareal should win this evening.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - Barcelona have been banging in 3 or more with ultra consistency. Athletico lost 2-0 to 2 of the top 4 away, so expect a similar scoreline this evening. Enhance odds with HT/FT or over 2.5/3.5 goals.
All of the horse races are strong with perhaps Loose Preformer the one to take out for place only purposes.
In Binocular's race, see if you can decide between Siberian Tiger and Dorabella to place?
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - over 1.5 goals at 1.19
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - 1.47 very tempting indeed but suspiciously high. Over 1.5 goals at 1.24 includes both side, one scoring and one conceding.
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away - the 3rd promoted side in recent meetings for United and they are 2/3 so far with Wolves to go. Wolves home form against top sides is good, bar Arsenal. This is a key part of the season which should see United assert. 1.48 again looks a great price.
16 matches without a draw for Wolves against a team who keep drawing away? It this a sign to back the draw, or will a resurgent United end this draw sequence away?
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home -intriguing - will St Truiden draw 1-1 against a top 3 side for the 3rd consecutive match? Anderlecht look to stop this draw trend tonight and probability wise, they should.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - could be the one a day contender at the odds today.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - looks safe but can we enhance the odds?
Betfair is down currently so I cannot look at the updated horse prices, but would take Loose Preformer out of today to place in the 415 FFOS LAS
I was going to offer you another multiple but Betfair is down. It would have been a little more riskier and include the following
Back Villareal
Back Barcelona
Back Anderlecht ( but consider hedging in the live betting market if they lead)
Lay Blackpool
Lay West Brom
Lay Wolves ( again perhaps hedge if United take the lead, given Wolves form against Chelsea and Man City at home)
Lay ADO Den Haag
Lay FC Koln
Football wise, there are some very appealing bigger odds bets in Man City at 1.47, Man Utd at 1.48 away, and Villareal at 1.28.
Safer bets appear to be Barcelona at 1.16, and a potential lay may be Marseille at 1.16, as their recent goalscoring record is poor.
Everton v Blackpool should see goals and I would lump Everton in with The bigger odds selections at 1.38, given they have scored 2,2,2,1 in their last 4 matches.
6 nations and backing France and Ireland in a double with Betfair pays out 1.27 and that is vrey appealing indeed.
***** 7pm - Villareal v Levante - back Villareal in the Match Odds at 1.28*****
Yes, before you ask, my Mum's Sunday Best fits me fine, a bit tight around the manboobs, but I think I look great in it. Yes, Fortuna and Zwolle was amazingly 0-0, and I am angry with myself for not taking the poor 2011 Zwolle form for what it was, poor form full stop!
Those who followed me on Credit crunched earlier got 1.42 at the off, and far better earlier on. He placed 2nd and was a welcome boost.
Bursaspor had to win, and did win 2-1.
2pm - Bangor City v Haverfordwest - 1.2 home - dominant in head to heads with 6-0 win this year already, the question is wether Bangor are up for the Cup. Haverford have lost their last 4. Goals could be the call here judged by head to heads. Also remember a team soundly thrashed has an opportunity to tighten its defence and ensure another 6-0 is not forthcoming.
2pm - Besiktas v Karabukspor - 1.37 home - 5th and 13 points off the pace are Besiktas playing 11th today. Besiktas, at home, have been beaten by 7th and 9th, and it is therefore entirely probable that they can be beaten by 11th at home. Besiktas seem to have a sticky patch against mid table opposition.
Against 10th and below, though, they are unbeaten, but against above 10th, they have only won 1 home and away. Karabukspor are 11th so are on the cusp of both section!! WDDWDW last 6 matches at home so they are not losing.
DDDLLLLL for Karabukspor away from home is a big contributing factor to Besiktas being such strong favourites without necessarily setting the world on fire with their home form.
2,5,2,3,4 conceded by Karabukspor away last 5 shows they are in trouble at the back. They have aloready been beaten by Besitkas 4-1 this season and this ties in with recent away goal concessions.
80% of Karab's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. It would seem Karab are newcomers to the top flight in Turkey.
230pm - FC Koln v B Munich - 1.55 away - 16th against 3rd ( and could go 2nd with a win away). Miles away from runaway leaders Dortmund, Bayern can still go 2nd . Koln have lost 3 at home, and done most of their losing away from home. They have only played Dortmund of the top 6 at home and lost 2-1. Difficult to really gauge how Koln set up against the big boys.LWDLWLDWL makes Koln a little unreadable from a betting perspective. Their last match was a 3-0 defeat by St Pauli. If this is true to form, and Bayern beat St Pauli 3-0, then Bayern must batter this lot into submission. I think Robben might be playing as well, and he's worth a goal or 2.
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - defensive naivete and attacking promise will only get you so far! The wheels are falling off for Blackpool. I missed another over 2.5 goals at home mid week much to my disgust. away they have played differently.A win can take Everton as high as 10th ( other results going their way too). 3 points is much needed. This is the shortest price I remember against Blackpool for some time, which is testament to the poor form.
3 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats at home for Everton..Poor form.12 draws in total this season is 12 points from a possible 36. That's why they are where they are.2,2,2,1 scored in their last 4 matches show Everton are in reasonable form of late. They scored first against Arsenal away before succumbing. You would think they could score first against Blackpool.
DLLDWD not exactly the home form that would have you emptying the bank account and lumping on Everton. A 2-2 draw at Blackpool again warns against another D!
6 losses in last 7 for Blackpool and they have hit the "wall".
Blackpool's last 6 matches were over 2.5 goals ( albeit 5 at home and 1 away). Their recent solidity away was broken by conceding 3 against West Brom where previously they had let in only 1 in 3 away .
Blackpool have conceded 3,2,3,3 last 3 matches so expect goals today? Everton are priced to score , that's for sure.
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - without much research I could foresee goals here. WLWWW last 5 for City at home - they scored 4 against Villa and Wolves. Look great enhanced bet territory if West Brom score first. All 3 West Brom matches away to top 4 have been over 2.5 goals.
2,2,3,2,3,3,2,2 conceded by West Brom in their last 8 matches and that is mighty consistent concession of goals.
3pm - Stranraer v Motherwell - 1.41 away - Division 3 v Premiership and I keep saying it, I love seeing big gaps in Cup matches. Although Motherwell have lost their last 3, 2 were 1-0's in a better league. 4 of Stranraer's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals ( in the Cup and in Division 3) so this hints at vulnerability at the back.
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away - knee jerk reaction? - Quite a generous price for an unbeaten United, but factors in the away draws they have accumulated. Man Utd have won the last 6 head to heads, but there is only one recent head to head at Wolves, and that was in 2010 , a 1-0 win for United.
One thing I noted from the highlights of Wolves' last game was how good their goalkeeper Hennessey was. But one thing I noticed from United's last match was how good Shrek was, scoring 2.
Wolves have a game in hand over 2nd and 3rd from bottom so could sneak up 2 places to 3rd from bottom with a win. United have a nice 5 point cushion over the chasing pack.
This match is, as you can imagine, top versus bottom.
The ridiculous back pass in the last match ensured Wolves are now 16 games without a draw. This really is a massive stat, but when will it end? How about against a team who keep drawing away from home?
LLLLWLWLWLWLLL in their recent matche for Wolves. They alternated between winning and drawing but have returned to a losing streak of 3 currently.
At home against the top 6, Wolves lost 2-0 to Arsenal but beat Man City 2-1, beat Chelsea 1-0 ( but this is a different Chelsea now) , and beat Sunderland 3-2.
Man Utd must be aware that Wolves seem to raise their game at home to the big boys.
LLWWLWL at home last 7 matches for Wolves. Yes, they don't do draws currently.
In running players beware. Wolves have conceded 13 times in the last 15 minutes of matches ( they need Stevie Gerrard to send round some Lucozade)
8 draws and 3 wins away from home for United - imagine if those draws had been turned into 3 points, they may as well give the title to them!
DDDWDW last 6 matches and interestingly United are playing the 3 promoted sides away in recent matches. They beat West Brom away, beat Blackpool away famously, and now face Wolves. 3 wins out of 3?
Man Utd have conceded 5 goals in the first half all season so they should be the first goalscorers first half? Back United in the NEXT GOAL market?
3 game winning streak for United sees them scoring 5,3,3 ( 1 away v Blackpool). Surely they have too much for a struggling Wolves side?
6pm - Marseille v Arles - 1.18 home - home team are one of 6 teams separated by 2 points just outside of the top 2 in a tight challenging group at the head of the league. When priced, therefore, at 1.18, and at home, they must take the 3 points to manoevre themselves out of this merry band. 5th playing bottom of the league , Marseille have drawn 4 of their last 5 ( remember I ignored Zwolle's poor recent form when they were expected to score and win last night) and seem to find goalscoring poor of late. How about this for a poor goalscoring record recently for Marseille 0,0,1,1,0,2,0. 2 0-0's in their last 3, albeit away from home. Marseille have won the 5 home matches played against 6th to 15th in the league but struggle with the top and bottom of the leagues, with 2 draws against 2nd and 3rd from bottom. DWDDW in last 5 home matches.
Arles have only one win all season and with Marseille beating them 3-0 already this season, and Arles coincidentally losing away 4-1,4-0,3-1 to the 3 top 6 teams they have played away, the draw problems for marseille could be resolved this evening. Because of this draw problem, the only option would be a trading one. Alternatively, for a bit of value, look to over 3.5 goals if you think that Marseille can replicate their 3 goals despite being a little goal shy of late.
Arles have scored only 11 all season so a goal from Marseille could seal matters.
645pm - PSV v ADO Den Haag - 1.31 home - top by 1 point to Twente so another must win with home advantage , otherwise the door is open to twente and Ajax to creep nearer and eventually overtake. PSV at home have dropped points against 2nd and 4th only and won the rest. Great evidence to back them today?WWLWWWW recent home form 3,10,0,4,5,3,2, scored by PSV in those matches. Apart from scoring none against Twente, they have been consistently scoring 2 or more goals.
PSV have not played 7,th,8th,9th,10th at home yet, ( ADO are 7th) so we cannot really see them perform against teams similar to ADO in the league.
2-2 away draw when they met this season, so goals a safer option perhaps? 82% of home matches over 2.5 goals for PSV. Opposition have only led at halftime in 9.5% of matches - yet again NEXT GOAL PSV appeals?
ADO have only lost 4 matches away from home, but did lose against 2nd and 4th, and beat 3rd ( Ajax) 1-0.
LLWDLDW away for ADo of late. May look ok, but the wins have come against bottom 3 sides.
Current winning streak of 3, but these 3 are the bottom 3 so take this winning streak with a pinch of salt.
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home - as we know Genk drew 1-1 and this has aided Anderlecht no end - 3 points clear. it is a tight top 3 so if Anderlecht are at home and so short, they must win. St Truiden were the team who went against the stats v Genk and scored in the first half. They drew against Genk and that was some feat given Genk were so solid at home.
Draws at home have come against 4th,5th and 10th and they have won the rest including a 2-0 away win at St Truiden.
13 match unbeaten run and WDWDWW at home latest .2 1-1 draws on the trot now for St Truiden, and guess who they were against? Yes, 2nd and 3rd. A potential niggle here. Surely the probability is against drawing the top 3 1-1 on 3 consecutive matches?
Against 3rd to 7th, St Truiden have lost away. Anderlecht are shorter than Genk were mid week ( when Genk scored first) 1-1 looks layable -it could occur of course but probability wise, it would be something!
Only one win away for St Truiden was against bottom side.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - the yellow submarines have the in form Guiseppe Rossi banging in the goals and look real contenders this year. Within touching distance of a poorly inconsistent Real Madrid side who I wouldn't back with an IMF bailout at the moment. 5 match winning streak at home for Villareal. Have won 7 and lost 2 in last 9 ( 2 losses away, one to Real Madrid) 10 wins and a single draw at home for Villareal. They now expect to win at home. Levante are 18th and against 17th and 19th at home, Villareal have won 2-0 both times.
No draw in 9 for Villareal - lay the draw?
5 game losing streak for Levante ended with a home win against Getafe.
8 losses, 2 draws and a sole win away from home. Levante have scored in 9 of 11 matches away from home, so enhanced traders get ready to pounce if Levante take the lead.
The form points to a Villareal win which takes them to within 3 points of Real madrid ) although Real are playing this evening too) I think.LLLLDLLL away for Levante. Looks like can't win away v can't stop winning at home.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - they usually deliver at this price with a win and with goals. Fortuna v Zwolle 0-0 taught us there is no such thing as a sure thing though! I still have to do my research.15 match winning run in the league and can heap more misery on Real by beating Athletico Madrid. Last 13 Barca matches have been overs and a 2nd string beat Almeria with ease in the Cup. Enhance odds with halftime/fulltime or over 2.5, even over 3.5 goals. Athletico have already lost 2-1 to Barca , and lost away to 2nd and 3rd 2-0, so expect the same this evening. LWLL last 4 away , win was against bottom side Malaga.
The only puzzle we need answering is whether to enhance the odds with ht/ft barca/barca or goals bets.
6 nations sees Italy v Ireland (1.17) and france v Scotland (1.17 France). Immediately I am drawn to the double. Odds of 1.27 are perfectly reasonable with Betfair Multiples. I am not a big egg chasing expert but I suspect we can oppose a 1.35 favourite for the wooden spoon and 2nd fav for that particular accolade ( Scotland) away from home.
MULTIPLE?
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A reasonable lay multiple covering the draw in all matches. To boost the odds further consider taking one lay out and replacing it with Barcelona win . Some risks with cup matches and away sides ( Bayern and Motherwell) but has a good chance of coming in. No Real Madrid to cock this one up!!
130 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Sprinter Sacre, 7/2 Kazzene, 13/2 Fishoutofwater, 20/1 Journeyman, 20/1 Sorcillera, 50/1 Sanctuary, 100/1 Lady From Ige, 100/1 Special Cuvee.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Even a repeat of his Ascot second should be good enough for SPRINTER SACRE and there's good reason to believe he can improve any amount on that form. The juvenile Kazzene is the obvious danger, though Fishoutofwater remains promising.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
I talked recently in my eletter about these races - 3 under 20/1 and each way alternatives in either Kazzene or Fishoutofwater to exploit any mistakes from Sprinter Sacre. Looks, though, an ideal opportunity for Sprinter to place under Barry geraghty - now 1/3 and Kazzene is 7/2 and looks like today's Credit crunched?
240 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Oscar Whisky, 10/1 Black Jack Blues, 10/1 Won In The Dark, 14/1 Barizan, 25/1 Tarkari.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OSCAR WHISKY not only boasts the best form but also the most potential and needs to win this well to stand his ground in the Champion Hurdle market. There should be no messing around with Barizan and Black Jack Blues in opposition, but Won In The Dark looks the one for forecast backers.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
The Cheltenham horses get a run out. And should oblige if they are to stand any chance at the Festival.
415 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Loose Preformer, 9/4 Iron Chancellor, 5/1 Swingkeel, 7/1 Our Island, 10/1 Definite Dawn, 14/1 Giveabobback, 100/1 Fair Rome, 100/1 Florence May, 100/1 Lady Dixton, 100/1 Little Frano.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Iron Chancellor was game in defeat here last time but again may have to play second fiddle to a Nicky Henderson inmate with LOOSE PREFORMER expected to improve markedly on his Doncaster run over this more suitable trip.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Could be a good day for Geraghty. Loose Performer is one of only 3 under 16/1 and this is another each way value alternative race with Swingkeel the probable each way alternative?
No immediate choices from Lingfield.
155 SANDOWN - cut and paste has locked again! Binocular is 1/12 and the value is in guessing which of Siberian Tiger and Dorabelle will place 2nd, because you will get a much better payout solving that puzzle than backing Bincocular who should win with jockey reading a newspaper and sipping a gin and tonic.
SHORTLIST
This looks a day of several opportunities and I hate picking just one.
2pm - Besiktas v Karabukspor - 1.37 home - the away side have conceded 2 or more in their last 5 matches away - the sigth of a correct score 2 market hints that Betfair may consider 4+ goals from Besiktas.1.21 over 1.5 goals will include both sides. 80% of karab's away matches are over 2.5 goals, and this is most likely a draw or home win.
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - 6 losses in last 7 for Blackpool - reality finally dawning? The shortest price for some time against Blackpool. Everton have scored 2,2,2,1 last 4 matches and should be able to score first?1.19 over 1.5 goals and 1.58 over 2.5 goals.
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - title contenders should be beating promoted sides at home. 1.47 very enticing. Perhaps a safer bet is the over 1.5 goals at 1.24 or the over 1.5 goals ( to trade) at 1.74
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away- standout stats? United are unbeaten this season. United have conceded 5 goals in the first half all season ( and 2 of them were against Blackpool!) Ultra strong stat that indicates United are the most likeliest first goal scorers? NEXT GOAL market is illiquid.
Enhanced traders? If Wolves score first, consider laying them or backing United. Will United break the away draw hoodoo? This is the 3rd of the promoted sides they are playing very recently and they are 2/2 currently. A clean sweep with a win over Wolves.
I would consider backing Man Utd at 1.48 to trade.
645pm - PSV v ADO Den Haag - 1.31 home - in only 9.5% of matches are PSV's opponents leading at half time -back PSV NEXT GOAL? - illiquid market again alas. Must win really for PSV and should win. 82% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals so over 1.5 goals at 1.13 is obvious, 1.42 over 2.5 goals and 2.02 over 3.5 goals for speculative traders.
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home - stick or twist? An intriguing match. Sint Truiden have drawn 1-1 with both 2nd and 3rd in the league in their last 2 matches. Anderlecht are top and are their next match. Surely it is too much to expect that Sint Truiden draw 1-1 again and complete the hatrick against the top 3? 1-1 is 15.5 if you think they can defy the probability!
1.19 Anderlecht and the market priced them up a lot lower than they did with Genk at home to Sint Truiden. The market thinks this 3rd 1-1 against top 3 sides will not come to fruition today.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - LEvante have lost 7 of last 8 away and Villareal are on a 5 match winning streak. Solid at home, Villareal should win this evening.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - Barcelona have been banging in 3 or more with ultra consistency. Athletico lost 2-0 to 2 of the top 4 away, so expect a similar scoreline this evening. Enhance odds with HT/FT or over 2.5/3.5 goals.
All of the horse races are strong with perhaps Loose Preformer the one to take out for place only purposes.
In Binocular's race, see if you can decide between Siberian Tiger and Dorabella to place?
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - over 1.5 goals at 1.19
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - 1.47 very tempting indeed but suspiciously high. Over 1.5 goals at 1.24 includes both side, one scoring and one conceding.
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away - the 3rd promoted side in recent meetings for United and they are 2/3 so far with Wolves to go. Wolves home form against top sides is good, bar Arsenal. This is a key part of the season which should see United assert. 1.48 again looks a great price.
16 matches without a draw for Wolves against a team who keep drawing away? It this a sign to back the draw, or will a resurgent United end this draw sequence away?
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home -intriguing - will St Truiden draw 1-1 against a top 3 side for the 3rd consecutive match? Anderlecht look to stop this draw trend tonight and probability wise, they should.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - could be the one a day contender at the odds today.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - looks safe but can we enhance the odds?
Betfair is down currently so I cannot look at the updated horse prices, but would take Loose Preformer out of today to place in the 415 FFOS LAS
I was going to offer you another multiple but Betfair is down. It would have been a little more riskier and include the following
Back Villareal
Back Barcelona
Back Anderlecht ( but consider hedging in the live betting market if they lead)
Lay Blackpool
Lay West Brom
Lay Wolves ( again perhaps hedge if United take the lead, given Wolves form against Chelsea and Man City at home)
Lay ADO Den Haag
Lay FC Koln
4/2
Apologies for lateness of message, what could go wrong has gone wrong. Firefox lost address bar and toolbar. Internet explorer would not cut and paste and my keyboard decided not to work. But got there in the end. So what stands out - trust Bursaspor? Opponents recently have really played tight matches but I love it when teams have something really to play for ( and at home) and there's nothing better than leading the table.
Fortuna play top side Zwolle. The latter are in poor form 2011 but Fortuna have never really been in form full stop.
155 BANGOR and Whoops a daisy is obvious but Credit crunched at 1.55 to place and one of 3 under 20/1 is very appealing indeed.
Which of Join together and State benefit are the safer at soft ground Chepstow? I cannot pick between the 2.
*****ONE A DAY - 155 BANGOR - Credit crunched to place only - chance here on the betting forecast being accurate that this will be a 3 horse race ( 3 under 25/1)
This is a risky bet, so consider instead Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle over 1.5 goals as a safer alternative*****
The odds are a little high for Credit crunched and he is not the usual one a day bet but I am going to chance him improving after a 430 day return on 15th Jan. Please do the Fortuna v Zwolle if you want a safer outcome.
No real bet yesterday as I was travelling back to say, in a Nick Cotton style, "'Ello Ma!" as my Mum is a little unwell at the moment.
I can view the betting markets at the right time today and we have the 6 nations, where hopefully there will be some bets to look at.
6pm - Bursaspor v Sivasspor - 1.41 home - a win takes Bursaspor top , until Trabonspor win again ( if they win their next game_. This is a key game for Bursaspor with home advantage. And it will be psychologically important to be top, albeit fleetingly. 3-1, 4-0, 3-0, 2-0 in 2009 and 2010 between these 2 all in favour of Bursaspor make them strong contenders to do it again tonight.
They are playing 15th out of 18 tonight and a slight concern that , at home against 16th and 17th, Bursaspor only won 1-0. Maybe they have trouble dispatching the struggling teams at home? It must be said that they have won at home against all 3 bottom sides ( Sivaspor are 4th from bottom)
Dropped points , loss and draw, against 1st and 3rd in the league, and only other dropped points was a draw v 11th at home.
Only 33% of Bursaspor's home matches have been over 2.5 goals which suggests they lack some firepower.LWWLWWDW in last 8 matches is ok.0,2,2,0,2,5,0,2 - these are the goals scored by Bursaspor in those matches. Simply inconsistent. One week scoring 2, next week none.
As if to compound the argument for few goals, Let's look at Sivaspor's recent match scorelines, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0,1-0, 1-0, 1-1
Only 40% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals. This has the feel of a tight match this evening, but then we remember the head to heads have been so emphatically in favour of Bursaspor.
Sivasspor have not won away from home, and against top 6 away have lost 6-1, 1-0, 4-1, 2-1 , so these tight scorelines seem to be occuring against lower league sides.
I would foresee a Bursaspor win tonight perhaps with a bit of a struggle.
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle - 1.43 - if there's no goals in this match, I will walk down my high street wearing my Mum's Sunday Best. Fortuna, you will recall, are the side who , bar one match, have had all over 2.5 goals and they now welcome the league leaders who love scoring.
Top ( + 33 goals) v Bottom (-29 goals). A severe contrast in fortunes.
Last 5 head to heads emphatically in Zwolle's favour. All bar one match at home ( and in fact home and away) has been over 2.5 goals for Fortuna. Recent home win came against bottom side, and they should concede this evening, although over 2.5 goals might be reliant solely on Zwolle.
Zwolle have lost 3 all season, and worryingly lost 2 in their last 4. In fact 2011 have seen Lost , draw, win , loss. This is not the Zwolle of 2010. Hopefully just a sticky patch.
Against top 6 away, it is draw, loss, win, loss for Zwolle but out of the top 6 away, they have won 6 and drawn 1. They have not played the bottom 3 away from home yet so cannot gauge whether they find these minnows a struggle.
730pm - Gent v Lierse - 1.3 home - although Genk scored first for a winning trade, it was a losing bet. This makes me retiscent about going back into Belgium. If a match such as Genk's with such strong stats can suddenly go against the stats, it might hint at an inconsistent league.
745pm - Ajax v De Graafschap - 1.16 - one huge loss for Ajax is Luis Suarez. He was consistently a 40+ goal man for Ajax and it used to be the case that I would not back Ajax without Suarez.
This is the problem we face now post transfer windows. Some teams have been strengthened with buying, others weakened by selling. El Hamdaouia is the top scorer and Suarez was 2nd for Ajax.
1.16 signals potential for goals.
WWLDDW at home for Ajax last 6 matches is not the type of form you would expect from one of the triumvirate.
Ajax did beat De Graafschap 5-0 away , perhaps this is the reason for the short price.
Suarez scored a hatrick that day!!
Against 12th to 18th placed ( De Graaf are 12th) Ajax have a solid home and away record winning all bar 1 draw.
De Graaf have only 2 wins away from home and they were against bottom and 4th from bottom ( 1-0 each) They have played 3 of the top 4 away and lost all ( Ajax makes up the missing 4th match today)Against the top 10 teams De Graaf have played away, they have conceded 2 minimum which sets it up for a possible over 2.5 goals bet, with over 1.5 goals looking safer.
745pm - Luton v Gloucester - 1.32 home - FA Trophy and Luton have been rock solid at home of late which makes them strong favourites against lower Conference league Gloucester.
815pm - Sp Lisbon v Naval - 1.3 home - 3rd plays bottom and immediately we can see a possible goal problem at home for Sporting against lower sides - albeit a sample of 2 (11th and 14th ) -2 1-0 wins - at least they won.
LDWL in last 4 home matches saw 2 2-3 losses - coincidence? 4 wins in last 5 home and away should instil some confidence. Slight lack of consistency for Sporting at home.
Sporting have won the last 2 head to heads, scoring 5. Last head to head was in 2011 and at home in the Cup - a good gauge to today's game?
Naval have only 2 wins all season, both away. Against top half of table they have conceded 3,4,1,2,3,3 so consistently concede.
Any points Naval get ( mostly draws) are at home against bottom half sides.
Can Sporting win despite relatively poor home form in last 4 matches against a side who concede regularly against top half opponents.
125 BANGOR
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle - 1.43 - 1 51 over 2.5 goals and a safer 1.18 over 1.5 goals. I would suspect that Zwolle might be backable today against a team with only a couple of wins all season. Goals looks safer - it's +33 versus -29. Concern though with recent 2011 form for Zwolle which is poor.
745pm - Ajax v De Graafschap - 1.16 -how will the sale of Suarez affect Ajax tonight against a team who are poor from home against the top 1/2 teams. Asian handicap quoted +1.5 to +2.5 for expecting a 2 goal Ajax win.
155 BANGOR - 1.1 Whoops a daisy to place and 1.55 Credit crunched might be worth risking? Thornton/King and one of 2 under 14/1 and 3 under 25/1 so strong place only contender for the speculator/value seeker
130 CHEPSTOW - Our father really well fancied here ,1.15 to place
205 CHEPSTOW - 3 under 20/1 -Join together a reasonable 1.18 to place, but State benefit looks interesting too at a slightly bigger 1.24 to place
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Bursaspor v Sivasspor - 1.41 home - consideration here with perhaps a 0-0 insurance bet? Surely the motivation to go top will be enough for Bursaspor. Given the profile of Sivasspor's tight matches, I would consider backing Bursaspor and trading out if they lead at any stage, as this may have a Genk like 1-1.
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle - 1.43 - Zwolle away win is very enticing. Again , given the concession rate for Fortuna, we may meet with a nice early tradeable opportunity after backing Zwolle.
Over 2.5 goals must have some trading benefit, as will over 3.5 for speculative traders. Over 1.5 goals looks safe at 1.18 and it will be a shock were this a 1 goal match.
745pm - Ajax v De Graafschap - 1.16 - post transfer matches are difficult to weigh up ( and this will be the case this weekend where previous form may count for nothing as potential team weaknesses are addressed via the transfer market)
1.16 for the straight home win perhaps? Last match was 5-0 away at De Graaf, where Suarez scored a hatrick - he's a scouser now.
155 BANGOR - Whoops a daisy looks safe to place with a clear round but can we risk Credit crunched? Back from a 430 day absence on 15th January and should be a lot fitter. One of 2 under 14/1 and 3 under 25/1 - King/Thornton and a nice place only price.
205 CHEPSTOW - 3 under 20/1 - Join together and State benefit should dominate, and with a clear round both should place.
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Fortuna play top side Zwolle. The latter are in poor form 2011 but Fortuna have never really been in form full stop.
155 BANGOR and Whoops a daisy is obvious but Credit crunched at 1.55 to place and one of 3 under 20/1 is very appealing indeed.
Which of Join together and State benefit are the safer at soft ground Chepstow? I cannot pick between the 2.
*****ONE A DAY - 155 BANGOR - Credit crunched to place only - chance here on the betting forecast being accurate that this will be a 3 horse race ( 3 under 25/1)
This is a risky bet, so consider instead Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle over 1.5 goals as a safer alternative*****
The odds are a little high for Credit crunched and he is not the usual one a day bet but I am going to chance him improving after a 430 day return on 15th Jan. Please do the Fortuna v Zwolle if you want a safer outcome.
No real bet yesterday as I was travelling back to say, in a Nick Cotton style, "'Ello Ma!" as my Mum is a little unwell at the moment.
I can view the betting markets at the right time today and we have the 6 nations, where hopefully there will be some bets to look at.
6pm - Bursaspor v Sivasspor - 1.41 home - a win takes Bursaspor top , until Trabonspor win again ( if they win their next game_. This is a key game for Bursaspor with home advantage. And it will be psychologically important to be top, albeit fleetingly. 3-1, 4-0, 3-0, 2-0 in 2009 and 2010 between these 2 all in favour of Bursaspor make them strong contenders to do it again tonight.
They are playing 15th out of 18 tonight and a slight concern that , at home against 16th and 17th, Bursaspor only won 1-0. Maybe they have trouble dispatching the struggling teams at home? It must be said that they have won at home against all 3 bottom sides ( Sivaspor are 4th from bottom)
Dropped points , loss and draw, against 1st and 3rd in the league, and only other dropped points was a draw v 11th at home.
Only 33% of Bursaspor's home matches have been over 2.5 goals which suggests they lack some firepower.LWWLWWDW in last 8 matches is ok.0,2,2,0,2,5,0,2 - these are the goals scored by Bursaspor in those matches. Simply inconsistent. One week scoring 2, next week none.
As if to compound the argument for few goals, Let's look at Sivaspor's recent match scorelines, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0,1-0, 1-0, 1-1
Only 40% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals. This has the feel of a tight match this evening, but then we remember the head to heads have been so emphatically in favour of Bursaspor.
Sivasspor have not won away from home, and against top 6 away have lost 6-1, 1-0, 4-1, 2-1 , so these tight scorelines seem to be occuring against lower league sides.
I would foresee a Bursaspor win tonight perhaps with a bit of a struggle.
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle - 1.43 - if there's no goals in this match, I will walk down my high street wearing my Mum's Sunday Best. Fortuna, you will recall, are the side who , bar one match, have had all over 2.5 goals and they now welcome the league leaders who love scoring.
Top ( + 33 goals) v Bottom (-29 goals). A severe contrast in fortunes.
Last 5 head to heads emphatically in Zwolle's favour. All bar one match at home ( and in fact home and away) has been over 2.5 goals for Fortuna. Recent home win came against bottom side, and they should concede this evening, although over 2.5 goals might be reliant solely on Zwolle.
Zwolle have lost 3 all season, and worryingly lost 2 in their last 4. In fact 2011 have seen Lost , draw, win , loss. This is not the Zwolle of 2010. Hopefully just a sticky patch.
Against top 6 away, it is draw, loss, win, loss for Zwolle but out of the top 6 away, they have won 6 and drawn 1. They have not played the bottom 3 away from home yet so cannot gauge whether they find these minnows a struggle.
730pm - Gent v Lierse - 1.3 home - although Genk scored first for a winning trade, it was a losing bet. This makes me retiscent about going back into Belgium. If a match such as Genk's with such strong stats can suddenly go against the stats, it might hint at an inconsistent league.
745pm - Ajax v De Graafschap - 1.16 - one huge loss for Ajax is Luis Suarez. He was consistently a 40+ goal man for Ajax and it used to be the case that I would not back Ajax without Suarez.
This is the problem we face now post transfer windows. Some teams have been strengthened with buying, others weakened by selling. El Hamdaouia is the top scorer and Suarez was 2nd for Ajax.
1.16 signals potential for goals.
WWLDDW at home for Ajax last 6 matches is not the type of form you would expect from one of the triumvirate.
Ajax did beat De Graafschap 5-0 away , perhaps this is the reason for the short price.
Suarez scored a hatrick that day!!
Against 12th to 18th placed ( De Graaf are 12th) Ajax have a solid home and away record winning all bar 1 draw.
De Graaf have only 2 wins away from home and they were against bottom and 4th from bottom ( 1-0 each) They have played 3 of the top 4 away and lost all ( Ajax makes up the missing 4th match today)Against the top 10 teams De Graaf have played away, they have conceded 2 minimum which sets it up for a possible over 2.5 goals bet, with over 1.5 goals looking safer.
745pm - Luton v Gloucester - 1.32 home - FA Trophy and Luton have been rock solid at home of late which makes them strong favourites against lower Conference league Gloucester.
815pm - Sp Lisbon v Naval - 1.3 home - 3rd plays bottom and immediately we can see a possible goal problem at home for Sporting against lower sides - albeit a sample of 2 (11th and 14th ) -2 1-0 wins - at least they won.
LDWL in last 4 home matches saw 2 2-3 losses - coincidence? 4 wins in last 5 home and away should instil some confidence. Slight lack of consistency for Sporting at home.
Sporting have won the last 2 head to heads, scoring 5. Last head to head was in 2011 and at home in the Cup - a good gauge to today's game?
Naval have only 2 wins all season, both away. Against top half of table they have conceded 3,4,1,2,3,3 so consistently concede.
Any points Naval get ( mostly draws) are at home against bottom half sides.
Can Sporting win despite relatively poor home form in last 4 matches against a side who concede regularly against top half opponents.
125 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Credit Swap, 11/8 Palace Jester, 11/1 Harry Hunt, 14/1 Kayfton Pete, 25/1 Backstreet Billy, 28/1 Timber Treasure, 40/1 Past Gambles, 40/1 Tait´s Clock, 50/1 Royal Patriot, 50/1 Stays All Night.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This has the makings of a match between the two previous hurdles winner CREDIT SWAP and Palace Jester. Cambridgeshire winner Credit Swap's form over hurdles looks to have a touch more strength in depth and he is preferred. [Mel Cullinan]
A 2 horse race? Only 3 under 25/1 -it is the jumping we have to assume will be sound and this will be a match up.
155 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Whoops A Daisy, 7/2 Credit Crunched, 12/1 Seymour Eric, 16/1 Mickytaker, 25/1 Fill The Power, 40/1 Just Benny, 40/1 Lariat Sam, 50/1 Kauto Cyreo, 66/1 Twice Lucky, 100/1 Luck´n´thanks.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHOOPS A DAISY stands out after a highly promising debut over hurdles last month, when winning nicely in a better-contested race than this. The odds will be short but she is highly likely to win again, probably at the main expense of Credit Crunched, with Seymour Eric best of the rest. [Mel Cullinan]
I could say the same about this race, with Credit crunched the obvious each way alternative. 2 horses under 14/1 and 3 under 25/1 -makes Credit crunched a stronger alternative perhaps?
330 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Wymott, 7/4 Bouggler, 3/1 Rackham Lerouge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of the three can be safely ruled out. Useful hurdler BOUGGLER has achieved enough in two runs over fences to suggest he can beat another good recruit in Wymott in receipt of 4lb. Punchestowns' half-brother Rackham Lerouge has achieved less than his two rivals but, although probably the most open to improvement, may be third best. [Mel Cullinan]
More fun over chase fences - 2 will place, one will not, but we saw with Ozric yesterday, they have to complete.
130 CHEPSTOW - again cut and paste problems and I can't dwell.Our Father is now 4/9 and one of only 2 under double figure odds. Soft ground at Chepstow - will that have an impact?
205 CHEPSTOW - 4 under 25/1 here - trust in the Champion trainer's Join Together?
530 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Princess Gail, 4/1 Granny Anne, 8/1 Diamond Sunrise, 8/1 Titan Diamond, 12/1 Lynchpin, 16/1 Cinq Heavens, 16/1 Lovat Lane, 16/1 William Wainwright, 66/1 Zohan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRINCESS GAIL (nap) bolted up here last Monday, when brushing aside Titan Diamond and William Wainwright, and is clearly the one to beat under a penalty. She could have most to fear from Granny Anne.[Graham Wheldon]
Another price gapper in a class 6 0-60 and the inconsistency of this grade is the problem. These price gappers should bolt up and place at least, but then you get Ocean Countess who runs backwards. Princess Gail is vrey strongly fancied.
SHORTLIST
A day busting with potential for both horses and football.
6pm - Bursaspor v Sivasspor - 1.41 home - I love getting involved when there is legitimate motivation and going top is such motivation. Head to heads show clear dominance for the home side. Has the potential to be a tight scoring and nervy match if Sivasspor defend as they have in recent performances. Bursaspor do tend to have the odd blank day but should beat a team they dominate historically.7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle - 1.43 - 1 51 over 2.5 goals and a safer 1.18 over 1.5 goals. I would suspect that Zwolle might be backable today against a team with only a couple of wins all season. Goals looks safer - it's +33 versus -29. Concern though with recent 2011 form for Zwolle which is poor.
745pm - Ajax v De Graafschap - 1.16 -how will the sale of Suarez affect Ajax tonight against a team who are poor from home against the top 1/2 teams. Asian handicap quoted +1.5 to +2.5 for expecting a 2 goal Ajax win.
155 BANGOR - 1.1 Whoops a daisy to place and 1.55 Credit crunched might be worth risking? Thornton/King and one of 2 under 14/1 and 3 under 25/1 so strong place only contender for the speculator/value seeker
130 CHEPSTOW - Our father really well fancied here ,1.15 to place
205 CHEPSTOW - 3 under 20/1 -Join together a reasonable 1.18 to place, but State benefit looks interesting too at a slightly bigger 1.24 to place
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Bursaspor v Sivasspor - 1.41 home - consideration here with perhaps a 0-0 insurance bet? Surely the motivation to go top will be enough for Bursaspor. Given the profile of Sivasspor's tight matches, I would consider backing Bursaspor and trading out if they lead at any stage, as this may have a Genk like 1-1.
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Zwolle - 1.43 - Zwolle away win is very enticing. Again , given the concession rate for Fortuna, we may meet with a nice early tradeable opportunity after backing Zwolle.
Over 2.5 goals must have some trading benefit, as will over 3.5 for speculative traders. Over 1.5 goals looks safe at 1.18 and it will be a shock were this a 1 goal match.
745pm - Ajax v De Graafschap - 1.16 - post transfer matches are difficult to weigh up ( and this will be the case this weekend where previous form may count for nothing as potential team weaknesses are addressed via the transfer market)
1.16 for the straight home win perhaps? Last match was 5-0 away at De Graaf, where Suarez scored a hatrick - he's a scouser now.
155 BANGOR - Whoops a daisy looks safe to place with a clear round but can we risk Credit crunched? Back from a 430 day absence on 15th January and should be a lot fitter. One of 2 under 14/1 and 3 under 25/1 - King/Thornton and a nice place only price.
205 CHEPSTOW - 3 under 20/1 - Join together and State benefit should dominate, and with a clear round both should place.
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
Thursday, 3 February 2011
3/2
I have to fly out at 1125am back home to see my Mum who is ill. I have done what I could but the ideal is the view the betting markets a little later than I am writing now. We can also gauge whether advertised soft ground is soft or soft/heavy. This makes a big difference.
No football of interest today.
Races of interest for me today would be the 315 CLONMEL with Bishopsfurze looking ideally placed to, erm, place. 8 runners and 3 places. Only 4 horses under 16/1. Only 2 horses under 10/1 . Fists of fury is the value alternative under Davey Russell as the only other horse under 10/1
This is a listed race so a good run from an outsider would not be a surprise. Still I think a clear round should see Bishopsfurze place.
The 250 Wincanton sees a relatively good 1.2 price for Ozric to place. This is a 4 horse race for 2 places so Ozric, with a clear round, has a 50/50 chance of placing. A drop to 2 miles is a slight concern for this one today, but last 3 chase runs ( 2 miles, 2 miles 3 and 2 miles 4 furlongs) have seen the horse never out of the front 2. Barry Geraghty on board and I would chance this one today although another concern that 2 miles means these horses will be going fast over the chase fences. Any mistakes will be punished.
These are the 2 to take out today at this early stage. I cannot put them up because it is not thorough analysis with a proper betting market. I hope the message helps. I will be
Another 1-1 - the 3rd of the year. Genk did score first for back to lay traders, hence the slight mention it was in play. The only match this season under 2.5 goals for Genk, and with Genk scoring less than 2 at home.
No football of interest today.
Races of interest for me today would be the 315 CLONMEL with Bishopsfurze looking ideally placed to, erm, place. 8 runners and 3 places. Only 4 horses under 16/1. Only 2 horses under 10/1 . Fists of fury is the value alternative under Davey Russell as the only other horse under 10/1
This is a listed race so a good run from an outsider would not be a surprise. Still I think a clear round should see Bishopsfurze place.
The 250 Wincanton sees a relatively good 1.2 price for Ozric to place. This is a 4 horse race for 2 places so Ozric, with a clear round, has a 50/50 chance of placing. A drop to 2 miles is a slight concern for this one today, but last 3 chase runs ( 2 miles, 2 miles 3 and 2 miles 4 furlongs) have seen the horse never out of the front 2. Barry Geraghty on board and I would chance this one today although another concern that 2 miles means these horses will be going fast over the chase fences. Any mistakes will be punished.
These are the 2 to take out today at this early stage. I cannot put them up because it is not thorough analysis with a proper betting market. I hope the message helps. I will be
Another 1-1 - the 3rd of the year. Genk did score first for back to lay traders, hence the slight mention it was in play. The only match this season under 2.5 goals for Genk, and with Genk scoring less than 2 at home.
I completely missed Blackpool. As you know a 100% over 2.5 goal record for Blackpool, but I missed them on the coupon.
Ocean Countess unplaced - that's class 6 for you.Inconsistency!
315 CLONMEL
Unable to paste betting forecast today. This is a listed race -soft to heavy ground is a slight concern to me. This is an 8 runner race for 3 places and 4 only under 16/1. Bishopsfurze should continue the excellent Mullins form in Ireland in the run up to the big Festival in March. Illiquid market at time of writing but around 1.16 for Bishopsfurze.
4 horses under 16/1 only and Bishopsfurze should have a good probability chance of placing. Listed race so no slouches in this field .
Fists of fury looks the value alternative here as the only other horse under 10/1.
4 horses under 16/1 only and Bishopsfurze should have a good probability chance of placing. Listed race so no slouches in this field .
Fists of fury looks the value alternative here as the only other horse under 10/1.
230 SOUTHWELL - this is a maiden stakes race where it seems to be between 3 runners for the 2 places. Those 3 runners are Ana Emarati, Eilean Mor and Laugh and Cry. 2 will place but which one will not? 1.5 - 1.7 for the top 3 to place in what should be a 3 horse race. Very reasonable prices. As ever with Southwell, it is a matter of trusting the horses to handle the unique surface.
140 TOWCESTER - 4 under 25/1 here but soft ground and Towcester makes for a test for these horses.
The Chazer is a big price gapper here. 1.14 to place if the soft ground and the hill at the finish don't kill him!!
250 WINCANTON - 4 horses and 2 places and a price gapper in such a small field must be acknowledged.
Osric is that horse - 1.2 to place is reasonable for a price gapper in such a small field. 212 in handicap chases last 3 races and has Barry Geraghty. Back to 2 miles again after having run over 2 mile 4 and 2 mile 3 in last 2 races, but has run over 2 miles over chase fences.
Has been either first or 2nd in last 5 runs.
Has been either first or 2nd in last 5 runs.
320 WINCANTON - Gibb River is 1/3 and a huge price gapper in this novices hurdle - Barry Geraghty should nurse him home. 1.18 to win and 1.08 to place.
SHORTLIST
315 CLONMEL - a case of whether Willie Mullins continues Mullering the opposition. Bishopsfurze has a great chance of placing in an 8 runner race, for 3 places where 4 are under 16/1 and there are only 2 horses under 10/1
250 WINCANTION - Ozric is in a 4 horse race for 2 places and is the price gapper. 1.2 to place is reasonable and has tackled chase fences the last 3 races never finishing out of the front 2.
Slight concern with a drop in trip to 2 miles which will quicken up the jumping ( greater risk of a mistake?)
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
Wednesday, 2 February 2011
2/2
One horse of interest today is Ocean Countess and I think she should place in a class 6 0-60 handicap . 1.4 to place is interesting and is such a price for a 7/4 - - - - 6/1 price gapper simply because of the poor quality of this race.
Elsewhere Roma would have been interesting were it not for their recent 1-0 wins, playing today a team who have lost by only 1 goal in 8 of their away matches. Look elsewhere. And to Genk who are spanking in the goals at home ( failed to score 3 or more only once at home - where they scored 2!!) against a St Truiden side who have only got points away to bottom 3 sides. St Truiden have failed to score in 73% of their away matches - nearly 3 quarters of away matches without a goal!! Marry that with the genk goalscoring exploits and we can see that Genk should win with their scoring boots on, and a motivation to get within a point of Anderlecht.
Another appeal is that this is in running, so is tradable and you could reactive - it is an option I will exercise.
*****ONE A DAY 730 pm GENK V ST TRUIDEN - BACK GENK IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.3*****
Some have asked where they find the match. Well this is a Belgian League match, so look in that coupon at Betfair. Alternatively go to the Football section of Betfair and click on IN PLAY coupon.
Better yet, why not install free trading software for Betfair at www.geekstoy.com. This software is free and really enhances the Betfair markets.
A Pleasant surprise to see Sire de Grugy at 1.14 at race time. He won as he should have . A frustation that I researched the NEXT GOAL Man Utd ( and Celtic) and they both obliged at better odds. I was a little fearful with what is a new market for me .
Enhanced bet? How about Arsenal 1-0 down. As you saw in the message, Everton score away against top 10 sides but mostly draw.
I am travelling tomorrow at about the time the betting markets show themselves ( 1130am)- my Mum is not well and I want to see her .I will do my best before hand.
3pm - APEP v Anorthosis - 1.4 away - Cypriot Cup - erm, no thanks mate!!
4pm - Martigues v Paris St-G - 1.42 away - lower leagues v top flight and I am constantly surprised with the relatively big prices for top flight teams in this French Cup.Only one loss in their last 12 for Paris St Germain puts them in good stead for this match against far weaker opponents.
Betting blind here - team news for Paris? Weakened side? State of the Martigues pitch etc?
6pm - Besiktas v Gaziantep BB - 1.35 home - top flight v Division2 . 1-0 down from the first leg and a great incentive for Besiktas here to get back on parity and win. Over 2.5 goals in their last 6 matches in all competitions for Besiktas. Porto were the last side to beat Besiktas 10 matches ago.
7pm - Almeria v Barcelona - 1.42 away - beware a team that does not need to win. The only recent loss for Barca was another Cup match, a 5 goal head start and a Betis team who wanted to win. This is almost identical this evening. The stars will be rested and the lack of cohesion with the Barca 2nd string was evident against Betis. They remain a joy to watch though but tricky betting mediums this evening.
730pm - Genk v Sint Truiden - 1.3 home - I feel drawn to this match and more research will tell me if I am on the money. 5 wins and a draw for Genk in head to heads. 0-0 and 2-1 at Genk in 2009 and 2010 makes us a little cautious. You would want a 1.3 shot to be a little more emphatic ( see United yesterday at 1.37 - 3-1) Genk have only lost 2 in their last 12 matches, and one was a cup match. They have caught the Everton bug of late ( drawitis), DDDDWW last 6 matches, albeit 2 of those matches were club friendlies.
A must win for Genk this evening. The only side anywhere near Anderlecht at the top, a win takes them within a point of the leaders.9 wins and 2 draws at home for Genk.
The 2 losses came within the last 4 home matches - a sign of the wheels coming off? No!!!! They happened to be playing first and 3rd in the league and lost to both so I would not get concerned.
They have won the 9 home matches against those outside the top 3!
3,1,5,3 scored in last 4 at home for Genk ( the 1 was against 3rd in league Gent)
Consistency in scoring at home.
Genk have scored in their last 11 matches home and away.
Like Blackpool, 100% of Genk's home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Your job, researching football, is to look for stats such as this one -I call them STANDOUT STATS.
No draw in 11 at home.
Going down the league, with teams they have played at home, Genk have scored 4,3,3,3,3,2,5,4,5 - mighty consistent, only once under 3.
St Truiden's only win away was against bottom side.8 defeats and 2 draws away , and have lost all away matches against top 8 sides.
LLLDLWLL away recently , as I say the win was against bottom side. Another standout stat - St Truiden have failed to score away in 73% of their matches. Marry that with Genk's goalscoring exploits at home ( only once have they failed to score 3 ) and we see that this 1.3 for Genk is justified.
St Truiden have only scored 8 goals in the first half in all of their 21 matches this season.
745pm - Lille v Nantes - 1.35 home - I used to follow Nantes as it used to be they, and Le Havre, dominating the 2nd flight.Nantes though are struggling with only 7 wins, 3 away this season in the 2nd flight.Lille are top but have 6 teams chomping at the bit to take over at the sign of weakness. This makes me wonder if the Cup is a distraction?
WWWDWW at home, no defeat in 11 home and away, you would expect a motivated Lille to win tonight.
745pm - Roma v Brescia - 1.32 home - Seria A match - I feel I have to make this distinction with there having been so many Cup matches of late.Brescia last met Roma in 2005 prior to a 2010 meeting indicating they are newcomers to Seria A.
Brescia won 2-1 at home against Roma in 2010 but the market thinks that was an anomoly and Roma should gain vengeance this evening. That was way back in September 2010
Roma have 2 games in hand over 1st and 3rd and if they win those 2 they will be 2nd - clearly incentivised here to win their home matches against promoted sides!!
Roma will be equal with Lazio with a win this evening- their mighty rivals.
Roma have not lost at home all season. 8 wins and 2 draws.WWWLWW recent form ( loss away) for Roma shows they are full of confidence. 3 of those wins were 1-0 so slight Italian temperament maybe? As a bettor I hate 1-0 scorelines, they are so precarious.
WWWWWWWW at home - can't get better than that.1,2,2,3,2,1,4,3 at home scored in those matches.
Roma have scored in all of their last 13 matches.
Roma have only conceded 11 in the first hour in all of their 21 matches this season - we see where their strengths lie - score and do not concede.
As I do all this research it would seem this match is postponed!! The market is still up on Betfair and soccerstats says it is postponed.
Might as well finish.
Brescia are 2nd from bottom. 1 win, 1 draw and 9 losses away.
LLLDLLLLL away from home latest.
Latest overall - LLDLWLLLWLL - the 2 wins came at home. 8 away matches have been 1 goal affairs. Slightly concerning.
9pm - Real Madrid v Sevilla - 1.4 home - a poor Real team suddenly returning to a team of costly failures reliant on one man for goals. About as trustworthy as Arthur Daley at the moment. This is a Cup match, Real are unbeaten at home in the league, so perhaps an angle in there. I am afraid I am leaving Real Madrid well alone -I thought Jose had brought some magic to the side, but they are slipping into bad habits again . 11 individuals rather than 1 team and I am still smarting how some clown like Kaka is paid so much for being Kaka!
2359pm - Flamengo v Nova Iguacu - 1.3 home - last met in 2006/2007 - a match for me to look at nearer the off. Instinctively, there are better bets today.
2359pm - Gremio v Liverpool (Uru) - 1.3 home - I wonder if this Uruguan Liverpool side have brought in Kenios Dalglishinho as their new manager?
145 DOWNROYAL
6pm - Besiktas v Gaziantep BB - 1.35 home - Besiktas have something to aim at and I do like backing teams with motivation ( they are 1-0 down). Over 1.5 goals might be a play as Besiktas's last 6 matches in all competitions were over 1.5 goals.
730pm - Genk v Sint Truiden - 1.3 home - this looks a strong bet. Motivation ( get within 1 point of Anderlecht), great goalscoring form at home ( only dipped below 3 goals once), away side woes away ( 8 losses, 2 draws). Looks a good one for Genk. Safer bet would be over 1.5 goals to account for any goal scored by St Truiden.
745pm - Roma v Brescia - 1.32 home -should be a home win for Roma but slight concern with the amount of tight matches Brescia manage away - touch of the Stoke's about them!
720 KEMPTON - Advertisment could place again, after all it is 8 runners and 3 places, but I would need to go back to this race nearer the off - a lot can happen in 7 hours.
210 LINGFIELD - interesting probability race here - 4 under 40/1 and 2 places - a simple 50/50 race to place in the 2 places on offer.
310 LINGFIELD - you all know about my price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap. Well we have a candidate here in Ocean Countess who is , it would seem, about to embark on a sequence in this grade. Catch her at the beginning today? Should place therefore?
1.4 to place is a bit unnervingly high. 7/4 - - - 6/1 today.
" dangerously well handicapped"
Analysis of last race at Kempton "Ocean Countess, upped to her furthest trip to date, could be described as a little unlucky, as having missed the break (as is often the case), she raced out the back and then made her move wide on the final bend. This was only her second start for Tony Carroll and she appeals as one to keep on-side in the coming weeks."
Drop in trip to 10 furlongs today instead of the 11 tackled last time . Could be a good place only candidate today.
220 NEWCASTLE - 4 horses under 33/1 but who to choose? who will not place?
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Besiktas v Gaziantep BB - 1.35 home - trust a team at home motivated to turn over a 1-0 deficit ( think Arse v Ipswich recently) - can we trust the Turkish Cup though? Over 1.5 goals perhaps ( last 6 Besiktas matches over 2.5 goals.) 1.2 to win
730pm - Genk v Sint Truiden - 1.3 home - they score 3 or more with regularity at home ( only once have they not done so) - looks a strong bet and tradable . 1.19 over 1.5 goals includes both sides.
310 LINGFIELD - Ocean Countess looks primed to place here - a price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap, the very class of the race may be our downfall ( can we trust these donkeys in horse's clothing?)
1.4 to place is mighty tempting for a horse who looks to be about to embark on a good run in class 6 handicap company ( these tend to run up a sequence)
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
Elsewhere Roma would have been interesting were it not for their recent 1-0 wins, playing today a team who have lost by only 1 goal in 8 of their away matches. Look elsewhere. And to Genk who are spanking in the goals at home ( failed to score 3 or more only once at home - where they scored 2!!) against a St Truiden side who have only got points away to bottom 3 sides. St Truiden have failed to score in 73% of their away matches - nearly 3 quarters of away matches without a goal!! Marry that with the genk goalscoring exploits and we can see that Genk should win with their scoring boots on, and a motivation to get within a point of Anderlecht.
Another appeal is that this is in running, so is tradable and you could reactive - it is an option I will exercise.
*****ONE A DAY 730 pm GENK V ST TRUIDEN - BACK GENK IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.3*****
Some have asked where they find the match. Well this is a Belgian League match, so look in that coupon at Betfair. Alternatively go to the Football section of Betfair and click on IN PLAY coupon.
Better yet, why not install free trading software for Betfair at www.geekstoy.com. This software is free and really enhances the Betfair markets.
A Pleasant surprise to see Sire de Grugy at 1.14 at race time. He won as he should have . A frustation that I researched the NEXT GOAL Man Utd ( and Celtic) and they both obliged at better odds. I was a little fearful with what is a new market for me .
Enhanced bet? How about Arsenal 1-0 down. As you saw in the message, Everton score away against top 10 sides but mostly draw.
I am travelling tomorrow at about the time the betting markets show themselves ( 1130am)- my Mum is not well and I want to see her .I will do my best before hand.
3pm - APEP v Anorthosis - 1.4 away - Cypriot Cup - erm, no thanks mate!!
4pm - Martigues v Paris St-G - 1.42 away - lower leagues v top flight and I am constantly surprised with the relatively big prices for top flight teams in this French Cup.Only one loss in their last 12 for Paris St Germain puts them in good stead for this match against far weaker opponents.
Betting blind here - team news for Paris? Weakened side? State of the Martigues pitch etc?
6pm - Besiktas v Gaziantep BB - 1.35 home - top flight v Division2 . 1-0 down from the first leg and a great incentive for Besiktas here to get back on parity and win. Over 2.5 goals in their last 6 matches in all competitions for Besiktas. Porto were the last side to beat Besiktas 10 matches ago.
7pm - Almeria v Barcelona - 1.42 away - beware a team that does not need to win. The only recent loss for Barca was another Cup match, a 5 goal head start and a Betis team who wanted to win. This is almost identical this evening. The stars will be rested and the lack of cohesion with the Barca 2nd string was evident against Betis. They remain a joy to watch though but tricky betting mediums this evening.
730pm - Genk v Sint Truiden - 1.3 home - I feel drawn to this match and more research will tell me if I am on the money. 5 wins and a draw for Genk in head to heads. 0-0 and 2-1 at Genk in 2009 and 2010 makes us a little cautious. You would want a 1.3 shot to be a little more emphatic ( see United yesterday at 1.37 - 3-1) Genk have only lost 2 in their last 12 matches, and one was a cup match. They have caught the Everton bug of late ( drawitis), DDDDWW last 6 matches, albeit 2 of those matches were club friendlies.
A must win for Genk this evening. The only side anywhere near Anderlecht at the top, a win takes them within a point of the leaders.9 wins and 2 draws at home for Genk.
The 2 losses came within the last 4 home matches - a sign of the wheels coming off? No!!!! They happened to be playing first and 3rd in the league and lost to both so I would not get concerned.
They have won the 9 home matches against those outside the top 3!
3,1,5,3 scored in last 4 at home for Genk ( the 1 was against 3rd in league Gent)
Consistency in scoring at home.
Genk have scored in their last 11 matches home and away.
Like Blackpool, 100% of Genk's home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Your job, researching football, is to look for stats such as this one -I call them STANDOUT STATS.
No draw in 11 at home.
Going down the league, with teams they have played at home, Genk have scored 4,3,3,3,3,2,5,4,5 - mighty consistent, only once under 3.
St Truiden's only win away was against bottom side.8 defeats and 2 draws away , and have lost all away matches against top 8 sides.
LLLDLWLL away recently , as I say the win was against bottom side. Another standout stat - St Truiden have failed to score away in 73% of their matches. Marry that with Genk's goalscoring exploits at home ( only once have they failed to score 3 ) and we see that this 1.3 for Genk is justified.
St Truiden have only scored 8 goals in the first half in all of their 21 matches this season.
745pm - Lille v Nantes - 1.35 home - I used to follow Nantes as it used to be they, and Le Havre, dominating the 2nd flight.Nantes though are struggling with only 7 wins, 3 away this season in the 2nd flight.Lille are top but have 6 teams chomping at the bit to take over at the sign of weakness. This makes me wonder if the Cup is a distraction?
WWWDWW at home, no defeat in 11 home and away, you would expect a motivated Lille to win tonight.
745pm - Roma v Brescia - 1.32 home - Seria A match - I feel I have to make this distinction with there having been so many Cup matches of late.Brescia last met Roma in 2005 prior to a 2010 meeting indicating they are newcomers to Seria A.
Brescia won 2-1 at home against Roma in 2010 but the market thinks that was an anomoly and Roma should gain vengeance this evening. That was way back in September 2010
Roma have 2 games in hand over 1st and 3rd and if they win those 2 they will be 2nd - clearly incentivised here to win their home matches against promoted sides!!
Roma will be equal with Lazio with a win this evening- their mighty rivals.
Roma have not lost at home all season. 8 wins and 2 draws.WWWLWW recent form ( loss away) for Roma shows they are full of confidence. 3 of those wins were 1-0 so slight Italian temperament maybe? As a bettor I hate 1-0 scorelines, they are so precarious.
WWWWWWWW at home - can't get better than that.1,2,2,3,2,1,4,3 at home scored in those matches.
Roma have scored in all of their last 13 matches.
Roma have only conceded 11 in the first hour in all of their 21 matches this season - we see where their strengths lie - score and do not concede.
As I do all this research it would seem this match is postponed!! The market is still up on Betfair and soccerstats says it is postponed.
Might as well finish.
Brescia are 2nd from bottom. 1 win, 1 draw and 9 losses away.
LLLDLLLLL away from home latest.
Latest overall - LLDLWLLLWLL - the 2 wins came at home. 8 away matches have been 1 goal affairs. Slightly concerning.
9pm - Real Madrid v Sevilla - 1.4 home - a poor Real team suddenly returning to a team of costly failures reliant on one man for goals. About as trustworthy as Arthur Daley at the moment. This is a Cup match, Real are unbeaten at home in the league, so perhaps an angle in there. I am afraid I am leaving Real Madrid well alone -I thought Jose had brought some magic to the side, but they are slipping into bad habits again . 11 individuals rather than 1 team and I am still smarting how some clown like Kaka is paid so much for being Kaka!
2359pm - Flamengo v Nova Iguacu - 1.3 home - last met in 2006/2007 - a match for me to look at nearer the off. Instinctively, there are better bets today.
2359pm - Gremio v Liverpool (Uru) - 1.3 home - I wonder if this Uruguan Liverpool side have brought in Kenios Dalglishinho as their new manager?
145 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Allee Garde, 5/2 Lord Redsgirth, 7/1 Celtic Wish, 7/1 Cottage Star, 10/1 Crude, 10/1 Kid Curry, 12/1 Simonay, 20/1 Ad Man, 20/1 Blue Vic, 20/1 Daneva, 20/1 Drumbledore, 20/1 Ounaja, 25/1 Sarahs Pet, 33/1 Eagle´s Away, 33/1 Mc Paddy, 50/1 Bearsgrove, 50/1 Lord Rudi, 50/1 Maid In Moscow, 50/1 Western Star.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Willie Mullins has his string in fine fettle these days and his hurdling recruit ALLEE GARDE and Paul Townend shade the verdict over the more experienced Lord Redsgirth. [Brian Fleming]
Allee GArde standout here in a race dominated by big stables - Mullins and Gordon Elliott and big jockeys ( Paul Townend and Paul Carberry)
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Advertisement, 7/2 Ocean Legend, 5/1 Gallantry, 8/1 Ongoodform, 8/1 Street Power, 9/1 Bawaardi, 12/1 Samarinda, 16/1 Gala Casino Star.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's plenty to recommend Ocean Legend but he's come up against a promising sort in ADVERTISEMENT (nap), who could be better than this level. Unbeaten in two starts since being fitted with a tongue-tie, the manner of his latest success suggests he's only just beginning to realise his potential and he's a strong fancy.[Ron Wood]
Spotlight is sweet on Advertisement here, but have we missed the boat with 2 wins already (this is a handicap) - 8 horses and 3 places though and George Baker instils a little extra confidence that , although he might not win, Advetisement should come close for the places.
330 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Tafika, 11/2 No Tears, 8/1 Forever Man, 10/1 Woodmore, 12/1 Theballyedmondchap, 14/1 Bohemian Rock, 20/1 Jolly Boys Outing.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a weak maiden chase and TAFIKA ought to open his account if reproducing his latest second behind a subsequent winner here last time.[Dave Orton]
Big price gapper here, and interesting were it not for the heavy ground , the 2 places only on offer and the fact this is a maiden chase.
140 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Apache Ridge, 15/8 Frequency, 5/2 Anjomarba, 14/1 Orchid Wing, 33/1 Music Lover.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Frequency will appreciate the return to 6f and can go well, but he was keen enough last time and the headgear might light him up even more. Apache Ridge is respected, but ANJOMARBA knows how to win and gets the nod this time. [Paul Smith]
Good probability race. This should be dominated by the front 3 but this is a seller and these 3 cannot really be split in the betting.
210 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Primo De Vida, 9/4 Sailing North, 6/1 Stand Beside Me, 8/1 Warm Memories, 33/1 Main Attraction, 66/1 Lady Ellice.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Primo De Vida has strong claims here but he has been very expensive to follow and it could be worth chancing SAILING NORTH. He ran a better race at Kempton last time and is open to a bit more improvement after just two starts.[Paul Smith]
Only 4 horses under 33/1 here makes this a 4 horse race for 2 places.
310 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ocean Countess, 6/1 Celtic Ransom, 6/1 Noah Jameel, 7/1 Lean Machine, 10/1 Indefinite Hope, 12/1 Red Willow, 12/1 White Deer, 16/1 Usquaebach, 20/1 Majestueux, 33/1 Sea Tobougie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of these come into the race with a convincing profile but OCEAN COUNTESS (nap) is a notable exception and a reproduction of her latest second in a competitive event should suffice in this lower grade.[Paul Smith]
Another class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper and we may just be catching Ocean Countess on the start of a winning/placed sequence in this poor grade.
220 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Music Of The Moor, 5/2 Shadows Lengthen, 7/2 Storm Brig, 17/2 Bollin Felix, 16/1 Hobsons Bay, 25/1 Nolecce, 25/1 Sweet Sugar, 28/1 Bunclody, 28/1 Falcun, 28/1 Young Alfie, 50/1 Cool Star, 50/1 Fairlea Bob, 50/1 Roslin Moss, 66/1 Aitch Factor, 66/1 Daredevil Dan, 100/1 Willowthewizard.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Storm Brig and, in particular, Shadows Lengthen command plenty of respect after good efforts on their hurdling debuts but quite useful Flat-racer MUSIC OF THE MOOR (nap) achieved more when making a successful hurdling debut at Sandown last month and is preferred. [Mel Cullinan]
The owner of Newcastle United has an extra £40 million. Will he be going to the races?
This looks to be a 4 horse race 3 places ( the 4 horses under 33/1)
SHORTLIST
4pm - Martigues v Paris St-G - 1.42 away - surely there's logic in backing Paris at such a good price? Remember I look for gulfs in leagues when contemplating the Cup matches.6pm - Besiktas v Gaziantep BB - 1.35 home - Besiktas have something to aim at and I do like backing teams with motivation ( they are 1-0 down). Over 1.5 goals might be a play as Besiktas's last 6 matches in all competitions were over 1.5 goals.
730pm - Genk v Sint Truiden - 1.3 home - this looks a strong bet. Motivation ( get within 1 point of Anderlecht), great goalscoring form at home ( only dipped below 3 goals once), away side woes away ( 8 losses, 2 draws). Looks a good one for Genk. Safer bet would be over 1.5 goals to account for any goal scored by St Truiden.
745pm - Roma v Brescia - 1.32 home -should be a home win for Roma but slight concern with the amount of tight matches Brescia manage away - touch of the Stoke's about them!
720 KEMPTON - Advertisment could place again, after all it is 8 runners and 3 places, but I would need to go back to this race nearer the off - a lot can happen in 7 hours.
210 LINGFIELD - interesting probability race here - 4 under 40/1 and 2 places - a simple 50/50 race to place in the 2 places on offer.
310 LINGFIELD - you all know about my price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap. Well we have a candidate here in Ocean Countess who is , it would seem, about to embark on a sequence in this grade. Catch her at the beginning today? Should place therefore?
1.4 to place is a bit unnervingly high. 7/4 - - - 6/1 today.
" dangerously well handicapped"
Analysis of last race at Kempton "Ocean Countess, upped to her furthest trip to date, could be described as a little unlucky, as having missed the break (as is often the case), she raced out the back and then made her move wide on the final bend. This was only her second start for Tony Carroll and she appeals as one to keep on-side in the coming weeks."
Drop in trip to 10 furlongs today instead of the 11 tackled last time . Could be a good place only candidate today.
220 NEWCASTLE - 4 horses under 33/1 but who to choose? who will not place?
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Besiktas v Gaziantep BB - 1.35 home - trust a team at home motivated to turn over a 1-0 deficit ( think Arse v Ipswich recently) - can we trust the Turkish Cup though? Over 1.5 goals perhaps ( last 6 Besiktas matches over 2.5 goals.) 1.2 to win
730pm - Genk v Sint Truiden - 1.3 home - they score 3 or more with regularity at home ( only once have they not done so) - looks a strong bet and tradable . 1.19 over 1.5 goals includes both sides.
310 LINGFIELD - Ocean Countess looks primed to place here - a price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap, the very class of the race may be our downfall ( can we trust these donkeys in horse's clothing?)
1.4 to place is mighty tempting for a horse who looks to be about to embark on a good run in class 6 handicap company ( these tend to run up a sequence)
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Tuesday, 1 February 2011
1/2
The football today for me rests largely on being reactive and flexible ( i.e. trading) but of interest for me could be Celtic NEXT GOAL at 1.42 given they have conceded only 1 in the league in their last 7 matches - Celtic have scored first in last 6 head to heads and last 3 head to heads at Aberdeen.
Celtic have scored first in 8 of their last 9 matches - away at Hamilton was a problem.
The Darren Bent factor is a concern at United this evening, but United's very strong half time defensive record means Next Goal United is of appeal as well.
Horse racing, and SIre de grugy to place is a reasonable 1.09 in a tough day and a clear round should suffice.
At Southwell we have a 4 horse race for 2 places, and Kishanda has had the one run ( might be green!!) but importantly that one run was on this surface.1.27 to place is reasonable and this is a 50/50 race - 2 will place and 2 will not.
New Latin comes for a stable with 6 wins from last 8 sent out on all weather but 70 last 2 runs is offputting.
*****ONE A DAY - 210 FOLKSTONE - Sire de Grugy to place at 1.10***** I would not go any lower.
I don't know where Den Bosch and Fortuna disappeared too. Postponed I think. A pity. The 450 Wolves delivered with the 2 under 16/1 finishing 1st and 2nd in a 6 horse race for 3 races. What I would give for one of these every day.
545pm - FC Nordsj v Shakhtar - 1.49 away - a friendly - over 2.5 goals in their last matches for Shaktar, all friendlies so goals the way here for a match which is difficult to evaluate.
730pm - Rennes v Reims - 1.51 home - Top flight v Division 2 in the French Cup. Again no collateral form and a hope that being home and in a better league will see Rennes clear. 4th in the top flight, Rennes are still in with a shout of the title.
745pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.49 away - league match and near 1.5 indicates these are usually struggles.4-1 away to Celtic as recently as the 29th January. Take this on trust ( Cup game!!) or factor in the wounded animal syndrome where Aberdeen will make sure this does not happen again?
Only one of last 5 head to heads was under 3.5 goals.
RAngers have 2 games in hand at the top of the league so Celtic must win for psychological reasons ( being top) more than anything.
No defeat in 11 for Celtic and 3 match winning streak. Have won 6 of their last 7. 8 wins, 1 loss and a draw away from home. Away at Aberdeen will complete this.
In 6 of 9 away matches, Celtic shut out the opposition.
4 wins and a draw punctured by a 1-0 away loss at Celtic for Aberdeen. They looked to be recapturing some consistency.
Aberdeen have lost all 4 matches they have played at home against the top 5.
The only wins at home for Aberdeen have come against the bottom 3.
RAngers won 2-3 at Aberdeen so expect goals this evening? Celtic have conceded only 1 in their last 7 matches so if they score they should win?
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - Premiership returns after a raft of Cup matches. Within touching distance of Manchester United at the top. A win keeps it that way. Arsenal have not lost the last 6 head to heads against Everton. 5 match winning streak for Arsenal in all competitions where they scored 3,3,3,3,2 .Only lost 2 of last 12 in all competitions ( 1-0 away to Ipswich in a 2 legged affair not worth consideration really and 1-0 away at United.)
No defeat in 6 for Arsenal. 3-0, 0-0, 3-0, 3-0 last 4 matches for Arsenal and all shut outs too.
3 losses at home, 2 were 2-3 and 1was 1-0.
After 2 losses on the trot at home in November , Arsenal have responded with WWDW ( the draw was Man City bringing the Sheikh's learjet and parking it infront of goal.
Arsenal average 2 goals scored at home .
Nearly 3/4 of their home matches are over 2.5 goals.
In 23 matches, Arsenal have conceded only 3 goals in the first halfhour of matches and 8 in the first half. So perhaps worth backing Arsenal at 1.49 to trade as they are likely to score first.
The opponent leads in the first half in only 13% of Arsenal's matches.
Against the top 8 sides Everton have played away, it has been WDDDDL - the draws were all score draws 1-1 and 2-2 equal split.
This tells us Everton have the wherewithall to score away from home against the big boys. Factor this into a goals bet?
As if to compound this, Everton's last 2 matches have been 2-2 draws
Only 1 loss in their last 7 matches , but 5 draws! These draws keep returning!
DDDDDWDLD away from home for Everton - it's those fecking draws again!!
All of the last 6 away draws have been score draws.
Over 1.5 goals looks safe?
745pm - Wrexham v Altrincham - 1.4 home - English conference and still to be convinced of its consistency
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - what a season for Ole Red Nose! Unbeaten thus far and will Darren Bent stop United from another unbeaten match this evening? The question is - will United win or draw?
LDWD in head to heads shows Villa may be a bogey team ( L was a Villa 1-0 win at Old Trafford)
1 loss in last 12 in all competitions for United was away loss at West Ham in the Cup.
Next Champions League match is the 23rd February so should be no tinkering just yet for Fergie.
11 wins and a draw at home this season for United.
8 wins on the trot at home for United.
In 11 of 12 matches at home, UNited have scored 2 goals minimum. United have not played 11th to 15th in the league at home yet ( Villa are 13th) so nothing to gauge regards this part of the league.
United have only conceded 5 in the first half of all matches this season ( and 2 of them were against Blackpool last match lol!!)
Berbatov the key, 15 of his 19 goals have been scored at home.
Opponent leads at half time in only 4.3% of matches so look for a half time bet here?
7 losses and a 3-3 draw away to the top 10 sides.
DLDWW since 2011 for Villa - is this down to Houllier? Loss was 1-0 v Sunderland.
LDLLLDDW away for Villa . Unbeaten in last 3 away matches.
Villa have conceded a massive 14 goals in the last 1/4 hour of their matches ( something in play traders should note if the match is drawn or goalless coming to the 75th minute)
210 FOLKSTONE
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - backing Arsenal at 1.49 and hoping they score first - they conceded only 8 matches in the first half this season in the Premiership.
Over 1.5 goals an option given everton manage to score away from home?
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - this looks a safer option for goals. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 is interesting but may rely on United. Still it will capture any goals scored by Bent too!
210 FOLKSTONE - 1.09 to place and 1.24 to win for Sire de Grugy who has hardened into 1/7 with the bookies. Only 2 places
240 FOLKSTONE - 3 under 25/1 but all are chase debutants We will get reasonable place only prices because of this fact and because there are only 2 runners.
400 SOUTHWELL - more debutants , this time with the Fibresand's surfaces. 1.26 for New Latin and Kishanda to place in a 50/50 race for 2 places .
A bit of digging reveals Kishanda is the only horse out of the quartet to have raced on the Southwell fibresand, a 2nd to another Mark Johnston horse.
Will this experience prove vital? Analysis of last race?
"There was a fair bit to like about the way she finished, though, and she could well be up to going one better if returning here next time."
It is difficult to call. New Latin comes from the Johnston/Fanning partnership who are proving devastating - 6 wins out of last 8 sent out by Johnston on the all weather. Has no Southwell experience this horse, that is the slight niggle.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.49 away - given the fact Celtic have conceded only 1 goal in their last 7 matches, 1.42 ( in a slightly illiquid market ) for Next Goal Celtic is of some interest here.
1.27 over 1.5 goals but this might be a 1-0 this evening after the 4-1 cup loss last match.
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - given Arsenal have conceded only 8 goals in the first half this season , back Next Goal Arsenal at around 1.4?
1.27 over 1.5 goals , no Cahill for Everton though.
Laying Everton at half time at odds of 7.8 is around a 1.14 bet.
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - slightly unnerved by the head to heads -only one wi n for United in last 4 against Villa.
Arrival of Darren Bent may be a confidence booster for Villa.
Angles here?
United scored 2 or more in 11 of 12 matches at home. BAck over 1.5 goals at 1.22
United only conceded 5 in first half all season -Next goal Man Utd at 1.33 gives us a first half to hope that this defensive strength continues and United score first.
210 FOLKSTONE - in a tricky footballing day ( I can think of bets but there is a trading angle to them largely that I find hard to convey here) it may be safe to go with Sire de grugy to place if you can get 1.10
400 SOUTHWELL - 4 horses and 2 places and Kishanda has the Southwell experience albeit only 2nd start today so still has L plates on. Johnston has won 6 of the last 8 races on the all weather in which he has competed making New Latin interesting despite lack of experience at Southwell
Celtic have scored first in 8 of their last 9 matches - away at Hamilton was a problem.
The Darren Bent factor is a concern at United this evening, but United's very strong half time defensive record means Next Goal United is of appeal as well.
Horse racing, and SIre de grugy to place is a reasonable 1.09 in a tough day and a clear round should suffice.
At Southwell we have a 4 horse race for 2 places, and Kishanda has had the one run ( might be green!!) but importantly that one run was on this surface.1.27 to place is reasonable and this is a 50/50 race - 2 will place and 2 will not.
New Latin comes for a stable with 6 wins from last 8 sent out on all weather but 70 last 2 runs is offputting.
*****ONE A DAY - 210 FOLKSTONE - Sire de Grugy to place at 1.10***** I would not go any lower.
I don't know where Den Bosch and Fortuna disappeared too. Postponed I think. A pity. The 450 Wolves delivered with the 2 under 16/1 finishing 1st and 2nd in a 6 horse race for 3 races. What I would give for one of these every day.
545pm - FC Nordsj v Shakhtar - 1.49 away - a friendly - over 2.5 goals in their last matches for Shaktar, all friendlies so goals the way here for a match which is difficult to evaluate.
730pm - Rennes v Reims - 1.51 home - Top flight v Division 2 in the French Cup. Again no collateral form and a hope that being home and in a better league will see Rennes clear. 4th in the top flight, Rennes are still in with a shout of the title.
745pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.49 away - league match and near 1.5 indicates these are usually struggles.4-1 away to Celtic as recently as the 29th January. Take this on trust ( Cup game!!) or factor in the wounded animal syndrome where Aberdeen will make sure this does not happen again?
Only one of last 5 head to heads was under 3.5 goals.
RAngers have 2 games in hand at the top of the league so Celtic must win for psychological reasons ( being top) more than anything.
No defeat in 11 for Celtic and 3 match winning streak. Have won 6 of their last 7. 8 wins, 1 loss and a draw away from home. Away at Aberdeen will complete this.
In 6 of 9 away matches, Celtic shut out the opposition.
4 wins and a draw punctured by a 1-0 away loss at Celtic for Aberdeen. They looked to be recapturing some consistency.
Aberdeen have lost all 4 matches they have played at home against the top 5.
The only wins at home for Aberdeen have come against the bottom 3.
RAngers won 2-3 at Aberdeen so expect goals this evening? Celtic have conceded only 1 in their last 7 matches so if they score they should win?
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - Premiership returns after a raft of Cup matches. Within touching distance of Manchester United at the top. A win keeps it that way. Arsenal have not lost the last 6 head to heads against Everton. 5 match winning streak for Arsenal in all competitions where they scored 3,3,3,3,2 .Only lost 2 of last 12 in all competitions ( 1-0 away to Ipswich in a 2 legged affair not worth consideration really and 1-0 away at United.)
No defeat in 6 for Arsenal. 3-0, 0-0, 3-0, 3-0 last 4 matches for Arsenal and all shut outs too.
3 losses at home, 2 were 2-3 and 1was 1-0.
After 2 losses on the trot at home in November , Arsenal have responded with WWDW ( the draw was Man City bringing the Sheikh's learjet and parking it infront of goal.
Arsenal average 2 goals scored at home .
Nearly 3/4 of their home matches are over 2.5 goals.
In 23 matches, Arsenal have conceded only 3 goals in the first halfhour of matches and 8 in the first half. So perhaps worth backing Arsenal at 1.49 to trade as they are likely to score first.
The opponent leads in the first half in only 13% of Arsenal's matches.
Against the top 8 sides Everton have played away, it has been WDDDDL - the draws were all score draws 1-1 and 2-2 equal split.
This tells us Everton have the wherewithall to score away from home against the big boys. Factor this into a goals bet?
As if to compound this, Everton's last 2 matches have been 2-2 draws
Only 1 loss in their last 7 matches , but 5 draws! These draws keep returning!
DDDDDWDLD away from home for Everton - it's those fecking draws again!!
All of the last 6 away draws have been score draws.
Over 1.5 goals looks safe?
745pm - Wrexham v Altrincham - 1.4 home - English conference and still to be convinced of its consistency
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - what a season for Ole Red Nose! Unbeaten thus far and will Darren Bent stop United from another unbeaten match this evening? The question is - will United win or draw?
LDWD in head to heads shows Villa may be a bogey team ( L was a Villa 1-0 win at Old Trafford)
1 loss in last 12 in all competitions for United was away loss at West Ham in the Cup.
Next Champions League match is the 23rd February so should be no tinkering just yet for Fergie.
11 wins and a draw at home this season for United.
8 wins on the trot at home for United.
In 11 of 12 matches at home, UNited have scored 2 goals minimum. United have not played 11th to 15th in the league at home yet ( Villa are 13th) so nothing to gauge regards this part of the league.
United have only conceded 5 in the first half of all matches this season ( and 2 of them were against Blackpool last match lol!!)
Berbatov the key, 15 of his 19 goals have been scored at home.
Opponent leads at half time in only 4.3% of matches so look for a half time bet here?
7 losses and a 3-3 draw away to the top 10 sides.
DLDWW since 2011 for Villa - is this down to Houllier? Loss was 1-0 v Sunderland.
LDLLLDDW away for Villa . Unbeaten in last 3 away matches.
Villa have conceded a massive 14 goals in the last 1/4 hour of their matches ( something in play traders should note if the match is drawn or goalless coming to the 75th minute)
210 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Sire De Grugy, 6/1 Alwaysonthemove, 7/1 Fireitfromye, 14/1 Keepthebooton, 16/1 Caddie Master, 33/1 Premier Article.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SIRE DE GRUGY looks at least one cut above his rivals and ought to prove very hard to beat.[Jonathan Neesom]
Hardened to 1/7 now , the big returns are in the 2nd placed horse.
240 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Native Gallery, 13/8 Swift Lord, 9/2 No More Prisoners, 25/1 Karingabay Queen, 25/1 Pipes A´calling, 33/1 Ballinhassig, 33/1 Big Bertie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Native Gallery looks the safest option, given his good effort less than three months ago, but SWIFT LORD's hurdling effort at Ludlow a year ago looks every bit as good. Seven of the first eight home in that race have won since and he can complete the set on his chasing debut.[Jonathan Neesom]
We see this a lot - 3 horses under 25/1 here should fight out the finishes but bring a prayer mat!! This is a maiden chase and the likelihood of some jumping errors is high.
400 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs New Latin, 7/4 Kishanda, 6/1 Pizzetti, 8/1 Cadgers Brig.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest maiden in which NEW LATIN can appreciate the step up to 1m, boost his in-form trainer's great strike-rate here and see off Kishanda.[Adrian Cook]
Fanning/Johnston on New Latin could place in a 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places.Yet to race at Southwell though an important consideration.
Very tricky card at Taunton.
SHORTLIST
Battle of 1st and 2nd in the Premiership. Both teams must win to keep the pressure on the other. Both sides are at home and should not lose at least.
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - backing Arsenal at 1.49 and hoping they score first - they conceded only 8 matches in the first half this season in the Premiership.
Over 1.5 goals an option given everton manage to score away from home?
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - this looks a safer option for goals. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 is interesting but may rely on United. Still it will capture any goals scored by Bent too!
210 FOLKSTONE - 1.09 to place and 1.24 to win for Sire de Grugy who has hardened into 1/7 with the bookies. Only 2 places
240 FOLKSTONE - 3 under 25/1 but all are chase debutants We will get reasonable place only prices because of this fact and because there are only 2 runners.
400 SOUTHWELL - more debutants , this time with the Fibresand's surfaces. 1.26 for New Latin and Kishanda to place in a 50/50 race for 2 places .
A bit of digging reveals Kishanda is the only horse out of the quartet to have raced on the Southwell fibresand, a 2nd to another Mark Johnston horse.
Will this experience prove vital? Analysis of last race?
"There was a fair bit to like about the way she finished, though, and she could well be up to going one better if returning here next time."
It is difficult to call. New Latin comes from the Johnston/Fanning partnership who are proving devastating - 6 wins out of last 8 sent out by Johnston on the all weather. Has no Southwell experience this horse, that is the slight niggle.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.49 away - given the fact Celtic have conceded only 1 goal in their last 7 matches, 1.42 ( in a slightly illiquid market ) for Next Goal Celtic is of some interest here.
1.27 over 1.5 goals but this might be a 1-0 this evening after the 4-1 cup loss last match.
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - given Arsenal have conceded only 8 goals in the first half this season , back Next Goal Arsenal at around 1.4?
1.27 over 1.5 goals , no Cahill for Everton though.
Laying Everton at half time at odds of 7.8 is around a 1.14 bet.
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - slightly unnerved by the head to heads -only one wi n for United in last 4 against Villa.
Arrival of Darren Bent may be a confidence booster for Villa.
Angles here?
United scored 2 or more in 11 of 12 matches at home. BAck over 1.5 goals at 1.22
United only conceded 5 in first half all season -Next goal Man Utd at 1.33 gives us a first half to hope that this defensive strength continues and United score first.
210 FOLKSTONE - in a tricky footballing day ( I can think of bets but there is a trading angle to them largely that I find hard to convey here) it may be safe to go with Sire de grugy to place if you can get 1.10
400 SOUTHWELL - 4 horses and 2 places and Kishanda has the Southwell experience albeit only 2nd start today so still has L plates on. Johnston has won 6 of the last 8 races on the all weather in which he has competed making New Latin interesting despite lack of experience at Southwell
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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