7/6

In the shortlist of the shortlist today, I have reasoned why I have left those shortlisted races as no bet races.
This leaves us with Brazil and Bated Breath.

Brazil is a superb opportunity, alas reflected in the odds. Brazil scored twice before halftime against the Zimbabwians ,albeit taking 40+ minutes to breakthrough.
Can we hope for the same today? If so 1.24 is a great bet for halftime/fulltime.THere is about £4K available at all odds 1.21, 1.22, 1.23, 1.24 and these are reasonable odds.In the Zimbabwe match, Brazil only scored one goal in the 2nd half so this hints that they'll do just enough
+2.5 and +3 asian handicap quotes hint at 2-0, 3-0 , 4-0 and 2-0 would naturally scupper over 2.5 goals.

***** ONE A DAY - 4pm - Tanzania v Brazil - Back Brazil in the match odds at 1.06. This will be the first bet of the day. It would be a shock for anything other than a win. We will then move onto the 745 Pontefract , so expect an update at around 720pm. Bated Breath, if a group horse in waiting, should carry on his upward curve, but with 7+ hours till race time, the market is not as accurate as it will be at 720pm - the update will occur via the blog only www.cliveoneaday.com password stable634*****







The shortlist of the shortlist came up trumps yesterday albeit at Ronnie Corbet sized odds. We will get days like this alas - I have to deal with what I am dealt on each day. I hope you joined me in the Nadal trade? He won the first set 6 -4 and the 1.24 to back shortened to relect this.

FOOTBALL
4pm- Tanzania v Brazil - 1.05 - Brazil obliged in the halftime/fulltime market in their previous friendly, scoring only one though in the 40th minute and that was from a set play . They also obliged in the over 2.5 goal market and these are the markets to enhance the 1.05 match odds.

This should be a cricket score but is a friendly and a likely fine tuning by Dunga and as a PR exercise there is no obligation from Brazil towards us punters!!

1.25 for halftime/fulltime and quite liquid on Betfair .
1.24 for over 2.5 goals is reasonable enough but will, I suspect, require all goals to come from the Brazilians
Sub 1.2 usually means a comfortable 3-4 - 0 win so sub 1.10 should mirror that and some, although teams do tend not to over extend .

Highly speculative 7+ goals is good enough odds and tradeable although it is unlikely to come in , you never know.

Asian handicap market predicts a 3-4 goal win for Brazil which will be comfortably covered via over 2.5 goals

HORSE RACING

215 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Trailblazing, 11/4 Duster, 3/1 Sard, 7/1 Diamond Johnny G, 15/2 Planet Red, 12/1 Yurituni.

DIOMED VERDICT: Duster and Sard are respected but TRAILBLAZING is closely related to a prolific winner and could resume his progress back from a break.

This is a tight handicap and will probably not make the shortlist, but after the performance o Submarine for the Dettori/Johnston partnership, it might be worth an interest in Trailblazing. I must reiterate that 10/1 outsiders signal a very tight race.

230 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Public Esteem, 5/2 Anadama, 4/1 Mac Halen, 10/1 Flag Flier, Thumbprint, 12/1 Mrs Overall, 14/1 Bubbs, 20/1 A Haon A Do.

DIOMED VERDICT: A race that won't take much winning at all and ANADAMA, having her first run beyond 3m, is preferred to recent course winner Public Esteem.

The original fav is a non runner so surely near 2nd fav Anadama can take advantage? Mac Halen is new fav though, but perhaps tells us the quality of this race that he is a 14 race maiden.
Might be worth risking Anadama with the significant non runner.

300 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Lady Pilot, 3/1 Casual Style, 7/2 Kauto The Kid, 6/1 Navajo Nation, 10/1 Captain Becket, Fongoli, 20/1 Querido,

DIOMED VERDICT: Casual Style could be dangerous if headgear has a calming influence but the solid option on these terms is LADY PILOT.

7 runners and 3 places here and Lady Pilot is price gapper 5/4 - - - -5/1 but this is typical of what's on offer - a selling hurdle.

330 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Alhaque, 15/8 Five Out Of Five, 100/30 Red Twist, 16/1 Ogmore Junction, 25/1 Sobre Tresor, Upstairs.

DIOMED VERDICT: FIVE OUT OF FIVE (nap) looked such a nice prospect in winning at Hereford and can see off Alhaque.

There are 3 only under 20/1 who should fight out the 2 places - Alhaque is the familiar horse for me here - pure probability race this one so pick one of the 3 and hope it completes and places

400 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Magical Harry, 3/1 Presentandcorrect, 4/1 On You Go, 9/2 Hereweareagain, 14/1 Coup De Tabac, Sula´s Legend, 16/1 Alroyal.

DIOMED VERDICT: Even his trainer admits that MAGICAL HARRY is a delicate case but he showed what he can do here last month and, if the wheels can stay on, should be hard to beat.

Pity it's only 2 places as Sulas Legend looks strongly fancied into 9/2

410 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Catherineofaragon, 4/1 Geesala, 9/2 Radharcnafarraige, 7/1 Cat Fire, 8/1 Anadolu, Foot Perfect, 9/1 Emerald Ring, 16/1 Juliet Capulet.

Regular readers will recognise horses especially those with memorable names, as with Radharcnaarraige who was a previous one a day, and would interest me along with Catherineoaragon, the obligatory Ballydoyle selection at the head of the market

445 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cockney, 100/30 Blitzed, 7/2 Mecox Bay, 4/1 Affirmable, 12/1 Sirdave, 16/1 Gearbox, Masteeat, 18/1 Plan A, 25/1 Ancestral Dream, 40/1 Mujdy.

DIOMED VERDICT: AFFIRMABLE was an eye-catcher on her return at Windsor and should improve for this stiffer test.

Dick Van Dyke up on the fav ( well actually Frankie Dettori for Mark Johnston - faith in this combo and the market move to favourite given the horse is a debutant?

Only 4 horses in this maiden under 16/1 I hope will be the ones for the places. There are always considerable risks attached to backing debutants!

630 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Major Dude, 7/2 Littleportnbrandy, 7/1 Cheylesmore, 8/1 St Oswald, 12/1 Cathcart Castle, Nutley Copse, 16/1 Perfect Pastime, Robber Stone, 25/1 Arctic Mirage, Quadra Hop, 33/1 Miss Moneypenni, Regal Bullet, Sammy Alexander, Snow Trooper, 66/1 Gower Rules, Lucky Tricks.

DIOMED VERDICT: Richard Hannon is having another tremendous campaign with his 2yos and MAJOR DUDE is of obvious interest on his debut in a race his yard has won three times in the last eight years.

All bar 3 are debutants and the market expects the Hannon/Hughes team to continue their domination of early season maidens with now odds on Major Dude. Highly speculative given all bar 4 are debutants

700 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Stags Leap, 11/4 Buona Sarah, 4/1 Sassanian, 10/1 Tweedledrum, 50/1 Daryainur.

DIOMED VERDICT: The reliable BUONA SARAH may be able to expose any flaws in the make-up of Stags Leap who is taking a big drop in class and is tried visored over a new trip.

One clear outsider makes this a 50/50 race, 4 horses and 2 places. Can Hughes/Hannon score with a significant drop in class to class 5 claiming company?

745 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bated Breath, 5/1 Golden Shaheen, 13/2 Belinsky, Ginger Ted, 8/1 Ballodair, 10/1 Besty, 14/1 Comedy Hall, Di Stefano, Emerald Girl, 16/1 Amary.

DIOMED VERDICT: BATED BREATH is easily the most promising member of the field and appears likely to prove better than a mark of 90 in due course. He's from a useful Juddmonte Farms family and created a favourable impression in a C&D maiden seven weeks ago, the form of which has been boosted by the placed horses. A signicant price gapper here this Bated Breath based on sole impressive win on only start. The market has seen money only for him it would seem with shortening to all red 4/5 and a rise in price for all others. 4/5 - - - - - 8/1 is the price gap for this class 3 handicap favourite. 800 WINDSOR BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Kingsgate Choice, 9/2 Humidor, 5/1 The Strig, 6/1 Danny´s Choice, Ignatieff, 10/1 Leleyf, 14/1 La Fortunata, Lucky Mellor, 25/1 Sophie´s Beau. DIOMED VERDICT: This should be fast and furious and can go to KINGSGATE CHOICE who looked a sprinter on the upgrade when winning decisively dropped to 5f at Ffos Las last time. Another price gapper this fav into 7/4 but hint of inconsistency with a poor run 2 runs ago and a sudden win latest. SHORTLIST 4pm- Tanzania v Brazil is well worth considering and perhaps over 2.5 goals is the best enhanced bet? What chance Brazil making a breakthrough to no reply in the first half at an interesting 1.25 - but there is not real pressure should they not make a breakthrough in the first half. That is my concern with a friendly. Perhaps back Brazil in the match odds market and Federer too in the Gerry Weber Tennis? He is 1.04 ? 230 NEWTON ABBOTT I do like significant non runners and Public Esteem is the one. This race is now a 6 runner affair with a late non runner so is even better for us place only backers as it is a 50/50 race - 6 horses and 3 places Anadama was the original near 2nd fav and represents Thornton/King so deserves respect. Mac Halen is the new fav however so he must be considered. This is a 3 mile 3 furlong handicap hurdle so a long way for these guys to maintain a clear round. Anadama is a handicap debutant. Highly illiquid place only market at present but dominated by mac Halen and Anadama. 330 NEWTON ABBOTT This is a simple 50/50 race here with 3 horses only under 25/1 looking to dominate and battle it out for the 2 places on offer. Five out of five looks clear in the place only market at present. For ease of decision making, perhaps chose the market leader at the off to place. REmember in all jumps races that the horses must complete for us to collect ( we dont get paid for hard luck stories and running out at the last fence!!!) 410 NAAS - I expect domination in this race from Ballydoyle ( won 3 of last 5) and Bolger/Manning with Catherineofaragon and Radharcnafarraige Beware this is a group 3 race so strong horses in attendance. The place only prices for these 2 horses is around 1.6 -1.7 - big odds but remember with Submarine and Twentynineblack I let the odds cloud my judgement. 745 PONTEFRACT - the market screams out that this race should be dominated by Bated Breath - a very significant price gapper here - a course and distance winner on sole run - 3 1/2 length winner out of 15 runners Very interesting from the analysis of last run "and he may well be a Group horse in the making." Wow!! I am a little worried by mention by the journos at the Racing Post of a possibility that rain may all. As things stand , though, the money has come or this Bated Breath again and this is the eyecatcher of the day. I would have to return to this race at around 720pm as the market will be more accurate than some 7+ hours earlier.Highly illiquid market as you can well understand with 7+ hours to go. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST Tanzania v Brazil looks a great match as Brazil should conquer. But do we trust friendlies when our hard earned is at stake? Halftime/fulltime has plenty of cash at 1.25 -will Brazil consent to score in the first half? Over 2.5 goals is hinted at in the asian handicap market with a general quote of +3 for Tanzania - match odds too point at 3+ goal win. But this would be in a normal match and not the unique circumstances of a friendly. 230 NEWTON ABBOTT is just too far for my money to be running over jumps, but is a race that is exploitable if the assumption is made that the selections will put in a clear round. If so then Anacambo would be my place only choice. 3 mile 3 too far for me though but a clear 50/50 race - 3 will place, 3 will not. - no bet 300 NEWTON ABBOTT - selling hurdle - no thanks. 410 NAAS - too competitive as a group race but I suspect Catherineofaragon and Radnarcnafarraige will dominate with personal preference for my familiarity with the latter - no bet though 745 PONTEFRACT - looks good for the one a day if the rain stays away and I cannot predict this some 7 hours prior - is Bated Breath really a "group horse" in the making? If so let's get on early!!

6/6

Another poor day really and I am a little reluctant to call a no bet day, particularly as I really shouldn't have yesterday. Al o the shortlist of the shortlist looks strong and I would only back Nadal to trade

As thingstand, I think Heathyards Pride may be the one albeit at a poor price


***** ONE A DAY - 250 SOUTHWELL - Heathyards Pride to place only*****

I will personally try to top this up with a back of Nadal to trade out for a decent enough profit if he goes a set up.

Poor day today to hope we get the marginal return and look forward to a better week





The mentions both obliged yesterday for those willing to take a risk

FOOTBALL
3pm - Glenville v Bohemians - 1.11 -Irish Cup and a hope the Irish CHampions do not falter.

HORSERACING
210 WORCESTER
TING FORECAST: 7/4 Command Marshal, 6/1 Kijivu, 7/1 Cannon Fire, 8/1 Makena, 10/1 Petit Fleur, 12/1 Badly Bruised, Edgevine, Lansdowne Princess, 14/1 Signs Of Love, 25/1 Skip The Present, 33/1 Ballingaddy, Lady Of Ashcott.

DIOMED VERDICT: COMMAND MARSHAL was quite impressive when winning at Fontwell a week ago and can defy a penalty.

Price gapper here in this hurdle race. Do watch out for Skip the PResent who is a significant market mover into about 8/1
Ready winner last time out, Commander is slightly up in grade, and has a 3lb claimer on board. PRiced to be very competitive again.

240 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Pips Assertive Way, 3/1 Grand Bay, 4/1 Am I Blue, 10/1 Diego Velasquez, 12/1 Festival Dreams, Lukie Victor, Star Galaxy, 16/1 Vintage Fabric, 20/1 Dancing Hill, 25/1 Scotsbrook Cloud, 50/1 Tarkesar.

DIOMED VERDICT: PIPS ASSERTIVE WAY likes it here and can build upon an encouraging third at Stratford.

Pips is now 7/4 and shortening in the live market - conditional jockeys though

250 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Heathyards Pride, 2/1 Trojan Reef, 5/1 Country Road, 8/1 Fromthebeginning, 10/1 Rebellious Spirit, 14/1 Without Equal, 20/1 Cragganmore Creek, Hippodrome.

DIOMED VERDICT: A strong case can be made for veteran HEATHYARDS PRIDE who is best in at the weights and is 3-4 in claimers. Support for Flat debutant Trojan Reef, who showed promise on the first of two starts in bumpers, would be significant.

One non runner here = 7 runners and still 3 places. Heathyards Prise is the one for significant support in this claimer

Form figures in claimers 1311 very encouraging

325 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Nedzer´s Return, 9/2 Hollywood Law, 5/1 Urban Gale, 12/1 Maggio, 14/1 Sierra Lady, 20/1 Fool´s Wildcat, 50/1 Moighnalo.

A one a dayer last time when obliging at Perth which is a favourite ground for Irish Raids, Nedzer's returns to Ireland and a clear round should suffice. - only 2 places though

400 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Baltimore Clipper, 5/2 Ebony Boom, 11/4 Never Can Tell, 5/1 Coiled Spring, 11/1 Joan D´Arc, 100/1 Vadition.

DIOMED VERDICT: NEVER CAN TELL isn't looking the fastest creature on four legs but she is going the right way and may make the most of her sex allowance. Baltimore Clipper may be the one to beat if he settles better and stays.

3rd and 4th favs are non runners which should open things up for Baltimore and Ebony.
One of the remaining 4 horses is original 100/1 shot!

455 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Cloone Stream, 4/1 Mayo Abbey, 6/1 Donegal, 10/1 Information, Rocheford Bridge, 14/1 Nazdaq, Queen Court, Seisdon Honour, 16/1 Loch Na Beaste, 20/1 Alices Lad, Derravarra Bay, Joker Of The Pack, 25/1 Up The Reds, 33/1 Bridge Lady,

Fav now odds on here in this beginners chase

505 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dafarabad, 11/4 Easy Mate, 11/2 Great Wisdom, 8/1 Le Leopard, Tony´s Treasure, 10/1 Spinning Wings, 12/1 Diamond Shower, 14/1 Dandy Erin, 16/1 Denis Of Kerry.

Fran Berry and Pat Smullen, both vying for the IRish Flat jocks title, are on 1st and 2nd here and I suspect the race will be between the first 2

SHORTLIST

3pm - Glenville v Bohemians - 1.11 -should be readily justified with a strong Bohs team.

205pm - Nadal v Soderling 1.24 - Soderling beat Fed but it could have been oh so different if a point or 2 had swung in Fed's favour at crucial times. Nadal is expected to win this French Open on his favoured surface.

250 SOUTHWELL - Heathyards Pride is taken to exploit the 2 non runners here as only one of 3 under 12/1. Claimers perhaps not ideal but this is a great probability race
1.07 to place - looks like plenty of others have sussed this out too - perhaps default toTrojan Reef, who, although not posting any flat form, has had 2 runs in bumpers. He is 1.24 to place

325 KILBEGGAN - Nedzers Return is back in IReland after winning well in Perth -"difficult to oppose" after a 17 length victory in Perth. Only 2 places the concern - 1.18 to place

400 BRIGHTON - the best probability race of the day sees a 6 horse race reduced to . Of the 4 remaining, one is the original 100/1 horse so I would not read anything into the quote of 40/1 in the new 4 runner market.
This becomes a 3 horse race with one debutant whoi is 7/1 as against the 2 market leaders at 11/10 -but who to chose to place?
The front 2 are 1.2 to place with next best 3.8
If betting here, we would have to assume dominance by the 2 market leaders, and a debutant showing nothing.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
205pm - Nadal v Soderling - 1.24 - this Final will be in running and I would trade Nadal if he goes a set up at any stage in this match. THis is the only way I would play this race.

250 SOUTHWELL - Heathyards Pride loks to exploit the non runners here -6 runners and 3 places . Perhaps chance Trojan Reef? 1.08 for Heathyards gives nothing away and there is only a few hundred available in what is an illiquid market

400 BRIGHTON - this is a fine example of a probability race where it looks to be 3 horses vying for 2 places. BUT the overall profile of each horse is bad.

3pm- Glenville v Bohemians - 1.09 - a highly illiquid market so plenty of 1.08 available at Ladbrokes for instance. Athough Irish football is a terrible betting medium, this is a thorough mismatch

5/6

I am afraid nothing grabs me at all today. I am happy to take the risk on Netherlands at 1pm as long as they field a strong side.
From a horse racing perspective, the best race today for me features Excel Bolt in the 235 MUSSELBURGH but he is a 2 year old who won by 5 lengths on his sole start ( class 5 maiden) - today's race is a class 2 conditions stakes and I am afraid I do not know much about conditions stakes races and what they represent.
I would take a risk on this from a probability perspective, 5 horses under 33/1 only and Excel bolt is odds on in places and seems to have 2 to beat to place if the race revolves around 5 horses only.

***** ONE A DAY - NO BET TODAY but read the above and see if you fancy putting your faith in a one time out 2 year old, or the Dutch in a friendly ( strong team = strong bet)

This is a day for the one a day to reveal itself as you follow the day's racing - one will come up, but has not revealed it to me yet. I am happy to risk Holland and Excel Bolt mysel but if you want discipline, then wait for better days




Fame and glory won well, and Slovenia put New Zealand to the sword

FOOTBALL

1pm - Netherlands v Hungary - 1.18 - usual warning about friendlies - market expects comfortable afternoon for the Orange

That's it for the football.

HORSE RACING

215 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sir Frank, 5/2 Majestic Mayhem, 5/1 Nearly Sunday, 10/1 Birnies Boy, Player, Santamina, 20/1 Magnushomesdotcom, 66/1 Rahood, 100/1 Simhal.

DIOMED VERDICT: Bumper and triple point winner MAJESTIC MAYHEM is fancied to make the most of the weight he receives from recent bumper and hurdle scorer Sir Frank.

Sir Frank is now 10/11 and has Brian Hughes onboard in an interesting race where only 3 are under 12/1 - this is a novices hurdle.

235 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Excel Bolt, 7/2 Cocktail Charlie, 9/2 Jamesway, 13/2 Fifth Ave, 12/1 Oneladyowner, 14/1 Master Macho, 16/1 Style And Panache, 40/1 Misty Morn.

DIOMED VERDICT: EXCEL BOLT created a highly favourable impression when scoring over C&D on his debut, after which Bryan Smart suggested the Norfolk Stakes as a likely target, and he can make his mark at this stronger level en route to Royal Ascot.

Now odds on and I do like to see a shortening in price.

Only 5 under 33/1 making this a probability race much like Fame and Glory yesterday.

Only had a single run, albeit a good win over course and distance.

245 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Baily Storm, 7/1 Sierra Victor, 20/1 Ellandshe, Miss Sunflower, 25/1 The Green Hat.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to oppose BAILY STORM, whose form is head and shoulders above that of his rivals.

Nice price gapper here, but 2 places and a novices chase makes this less than ideal as a betting medium

250 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Haatheq, 11/2 Rumool, 7/1 Ginger Jack, Sea Lord, 8/1 Flip Flop, 10/1 Strong Vigilance, 12/1 Mejd, 14/1 Bahamian Music.

DIOMED VERDICT: Haatheq is the obvious one after the way he has won both his handicap starts and the extra 1f isn't expected to pose a problem but a chance is taken on STRONG VIGILANCE showing improved form now handicapping after being gelded.

Price gapper here and job made easier by the absence of provisional 2nd favourite.
Won his last 2 races over 7 furlongs and this is 8 furlongs - looks like he is expected to cope and cope well.

8 down to 7 runners and 3 places still.

255 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Leblon, 7/2 Sherchanceit, 4/1 Model County Lass, 5/1 First Beauty, 16/1 Sparta Rebel, 20/1 Hard To Please, 33/1 Clu Agus Cail, Royal Dawn, 66/1 Daly, Only Heather, 100/1 Flare Star, Seeking Justice.

2nd fav a non runner and a good probability race with only 4 under 20/1 in the live market

400 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Jan Vermeer, 5/1 Workforce, 6/1 Midas Touch, Rewilding, 7/1 Bullet Train, 12/1 Azmeel, 16/1 Al Zir, 20/1 Coordinated Cut, 33/1 Ted Spread, 66/1 Buzzword, Hot Prospect, 150/1 At First Sight.

DIOMED VERDICT: JAN VERMEER (nap) has long been underestimated in many quarters but he proved himself a top-quality 2yo when winning the Criterium International and his ruthless dismissal of the opposition on his recent return at the Curragh, despite giving 7lb all round, suggested that he is going to make an even better middle-distance 3yo. Rewilding and Workforce can follow him home.

Jan Vermeer is the talking horse here with St Nicholas Abbey out - remember this is the Derby and ultra competitive

435 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 New Rules, 3/1 Return To Kansas, 4/1 Page Turner, 12/1 Be Official, Malabar Rose, 14/1 Meitheamh, 16/1 Catcher In Thewell, Thyssus, 20/1 Strange Times, 25/1 Che Copete, Rokococo Palm, The Persuasionist.

Smullen the jockey on the fav who has been backed in this bumper ( bumpers mean market check required nearer the off)

440 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Hadron Collider, 11/4 Off Gallivanting, 5/1 Karzelle, 14/1 Cool The Heels, 33/1 Market Bob, Roc De Guye, 50/1 Autumn´s Quest, 100/1 Angus´s Antics, Dawn Storm, Passive Interest, Sprowler, Wild Lyph,

DIOMED VERDICT: A very weak race with Wizard Of Odds coming out and his defection only strengthens the claims of HADRON COLLIDER (nap).

Only 5 under 25/1 here and an odds on fav makes this a good probability race - a maiden hurdle is a slight niggle but the fav has placed twice

540 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mossley, 15/8 Arthur´s Pass, 10/1 Tara Rose, 14/1 Johann Sabestian, La Chemme, 20/1 Mini Shower, My Idea, 33/1 Glacial Harry, Go Ruby Go, 100/1 Kirkton, Red Whisper, Right Move, The Ridge, Transinski.

DIOMED VERDICT: MOSSLEY looks the one to be with having joined Nicky Henderson after a luckless pointing debut.

Worth coming back to this bumper as the market is already interesting but will tell all regarding the obvious front 2

650 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Timocracy, 5/2 Rapid City, 4/1 Doubnov, 11/2 Zero Cool, 14/1 Sunset Boulevard, 20/1 Gold Ring, 100/1 Turnham Green,

DIOMED VERDICT: Whether Timocracy can register the four-timer could depend on what effect the headgear has and preference is for RAPID CITY, who is probably more reliable than stablemate Yossi. Fav on a 4 timer which may end this evening - Rapid City looks the horse to follow perhaps if this 7 runner race is still paying 3 places on Betfair SHORTLIST A very uninspiring day today for me and a typically bookie friendly card throughout 1pm - Holland v Hungary - 1.18 - if the first team play then this will be easy for the Dutch who should lead at some stage. As we have seen friendlies have been tough to call - asians show +1.5 and +2 so market makers expect a tight enough game 215 HEXHAM - 9 runners, 2 are 100/1 and one 25/1 reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 will place. Sir Frank is clear in the place market 1.19 - clear round required 235 MUSSELBURGH - 7 runners and 3 places an Excel Bolt a class 5 maiden 5 length winner - highly impressive - now I am not too sure what a conditions stakes race is - class 2 . This winner off a class 5 is odds on and there are 5 under 33/1 so although I am unsure regarding race type, probability is good. 1.2 to place 245 HEXHAM - chase winner latest -failed to complete 2 runs ago a slight niggle. 1/5 here for this 2 place novices chase - 1.12 and we need to show discipline to leave this alone

440 WORCESTER
Hadron collider's analysis o last run hinted at a stable not in form and an underperformance by the horse. Price gapper here, and only 5 horses under 25/1 so a good probability race

1.15 to place - the market expects and we also need to assume a clear round.

The evening races need returning to

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1pm Holland v Hungary - 1.18 - reliant solely on the team news here so I cannot really put it up. If you see Van Persie, Robben et al playing then this is a good one a day.

4/6way

There are logical risks attached to backing a favourite in a group race - the horses in opposition are all very good indeed and on their day can probably win.
So it is with the 245 EPSOM that I will risk the one a day


***** 245 EPSOM - Fame and Glory to place - 1.16 available which should remain in what is likely to be a very liquid market*****

I cannot find any chinks in the armour - 2nd over course and distance to Sea the Stars, this horse does not have such a calibre of opposition today. There are only 5 horses under 33/1 who should be vying for the 3 places so this makes it a good probability race.

We have seen before in listed races that surprises can occur. If you want to avoid involvement in competitive listed races then perhaps laying New Zealand and backing Nadal can make an equivalent 1.17 bet ( although this does not then become a one a day bet does it?)







Dever dream did the business albeit heavily backed in the win market and consequently 1.09 in the place market. 1.16 was available and I managed that.

The football was interesting with Spain only just managing a win - the asian markets again indicating a tight match.

5pm - France v China -1.21 - wholly unimpressive qualifying round from the frog cheats ,and priced here to easily overcome China.You would have thought with China's population , they could round up 24 or so outstanding footballers, but the market thinks not.

IRISH CUP
Irish football is of such a poor standard that top teams regularly get beaten by poor sides at home!
Tonight should see some mismatches
745pm - Cork City FORAS v Bluebell United - 1.34
Galway United v Malahide Limited - 1.22
Limerick 37 v Tolka Rovers - 1.36
Sligo Rovers v Athlone - 1.29
Sporting fingal v Mervue United - 1.16

I would automatically opt for the shortest priced sides at home which is Galway United aand Sporting Fingal and also look at Paddy Power and Boyles Sports, as the big 2 Irish bookies, to see if they concur with Betfair. They do.

745pm - Slovenia v New Zealand - 1.54 - it is frustrating to me that I cannot remember whether it is Slovenia or Slovakia that is a half decent side.
I think it is Slovenia, and they could be dark horses in this World Cup. New Zealand got a great 1-0 win in their last friendly against Serbia I seem to remember, and a 1-0 win signals potential defensive tactics and counter attack football.
I suspect Slovenia to be too good but this is a friendly.

2pm- Meltzer v Nadal - 1.05 - a day early so read yesterday's message regarding this match

HORSE RACING

140 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Mabait, 7/2 Penitent, 4/1 Alexandros, 6/1 The Cheka, 10/1 Bushman, Harrison George, Ordnance Row, 33/1 Beauchamp Xerxes, Classic Colori.

DIOMED VERDICT: The conditions are different but the impressive Lincoln winner PENITENT looked a Group-race performer in the making at Doncaster and can take the step up in class in his stride.

"group horse in the making" but the market indicates a really competitive race here. Would be a nice price if Penitent's potential was fulfilled

225 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Chocolate Caramel, 4/1 Castlebury, 9/2 Capable Guest, 7/1 Mister Fizzbomb, 12/1 Drummers Drumming, 20/1 Spume, 25/1 Mceldowney, 66/1 Daltaban.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHOCOLATE CARAMEL ticks most of the right boxes now he's dropped to selling grade and he's taken to score at the main expense of Capable Guest.

Drop to selling company sees Chocolate Caramel at 4/5 and backed here - a straight 8 race makes this interesting despite seller status. Has been running poorly in better company.

2 horses are 33/1 and 50/1 , one is 20/1 and hopefully they play no part in this race. This leaves 5 horses and 3 places so a possible good probability race despite the poor race type.

245 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fame And Glory, 11/4 Sariska, 7/1 Youmzain, 8/1 Cavalryman, 12/1 Jukebox Jury, 25/1 High Heeled, 40/1 South Easter, 66/1 Clowance, 200/1 Bashkirov, Dixie Music.

DIOMED VERDICT: Aidan O'Brien has won this three times in the last five years and FAME AND GLORY, who came right back to his best in Ireland last time, can add to that tally.

Fame and glory is now odds on in an interesting top class race where only 5 horses are under 25/1 - this makes this a superb probability race. The market indicates Fame and Glory and Sariska will be the ones to beat.

530 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Queen Of Spain, 7/2 Deire Na Sli, 8/1 Seeharn, Shelley Beach, Speedy Storm, 10/1 Cambina, Wild Wind, 16/1 Beau Bunny, Highly Composed, Isis Song, 20/1 Chattel House, 25/1 Cinarosa, Kate Greenaway, More Than A Lot, Palos Verde, 33/1 Praise Be, 50/1 Ballybacka Lady, Diamonds Galore, 66/1 Khelino.

Aiden's son on board Queen of Spain - who is the obligatory Ballydoyle possible maiden improver after a run.

605 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Excelebration, 11/2 Finnker, 6/1 Midnight Rider, 7/1 Belgian Bill, 12/1 Annalika, 20/1 Henry Chettle, Il Battista, 25/1 Silken Thoughts.

DIOMED VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the debut effort of EXCELEBRATION last month and he's taken to put that experience to good use here. Money for any of the newcomers, particularly Finnker, should not be ignored.

Price gapper here but another dilemma race in that this maiden is strong fav based on a sole run.

4th of 11 on debut and there was money for him which is a good sign in retrospect.

This 8 runner race sees only 4 under 20/1 which may hint at this being a good probability race.

The market will need consultation 15 minutes or so before race time given this is a maiden. Already Belgian Bill is the market mover into 4/1

The form of the fav is not that exciting but the reason he is so short now is because of the collateral form of the 3 who beat him

635 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Robens Rock, 5/1 Cabal, Wedding Dream, 10/1 Al Dafa, Dazakhee, Lord Raglan, 14/1 Another Magic Man, Durham Town, George Benjamin, 20/1 Bubbelas, Jack O´Lantern, 25/1 Grams And Ounces, 33/1 Inpursuitoffreedom, 66/1 Frontline Phantom, Gibraltar Lass.

su

DIOMED VERDICT: ROBENS ROCK (nap) settled much better than was the case last year and showed improved form on his first run for Mark Johnston. He'll be hard to beat under a penalty.

Like Submarine yesterday, we have another strongly supported Johnston horse , this time ridden by Niel Callan
Money for inpursuitfoffreedom ,33/1 into 20/1 - if breaching 16/1 he would be a good each way candidate

645 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Neebras, 11/2 Cadeaux Pearl, 8/1 Frankish Dynasty, 10/1 Oliver´s Gold, Spokesperson, 14/1 Arabian Star, 33/1 Salvationist, 100/1 Reachforthebucks.

DIOMED VERDICT: NEEBRAS looked a surefire future winner when second at Newbury on debut and he can make a winning start for his new connections.

Godolphin have a new trainer in town , Mr Al Zarooni. This Neebraas has been battered ( now 1/3 in places) - 8 runners and 3 places is ideal place only territory - maiden status a slight concern

700 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Address Unknown, 9/2 Fighting Brave, 5/1 Sebastian Flyte, 6/1 Carraiglawn, 8/1 Barbadine, 10/1 Choose Me, 16/1 Baron De´L, 20/1 Barring Decree, Dance On By, 33/1 Harriers Call, 66/1 Ideal Match, 100/1 High Queen, Lac A Dancer.

Weld/Smullen market leader always garners my respect but there are top stable/jockey combinations in opposition.

740 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Bona Fortuna, 7/1 Astral Flower, Shelfah, 12/1 Crystal Gale, 14/1 Aegean Destiny, 20/1 Trojan Gift, 33/1 Battle Study.

DIOMED VERDICT: BONA FORTUNA is a typical improver from this yard and is fancied to go in again.

Ready winner in an apprentice ridden race last night under Rosie Jessop, priced to dominate again, and Seb Sanders employed.
This is a middle distance horse so is one day adequate rest time?

Only 2 places

800 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Aestival, 11/2 Sunny Future, 12/1 Goose Green, Welsh Anthem, 14/1 Aspirational, 16/1 Bramalea, One Cool Pussy, Sgt Schultz, 20/1 Una Pelota, 25/1 Pyrus Time.

DIOMED VERDICT: AESTIVAL can defy his double penalty at the chief expense of Sunny Future

Another recent horse mentioned in Aestival is a price gapper again. On a hatrick bid with a double penalty, another Sir Mark Prescott horse. Have we missed the boat or is there one last hurrah.

845 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tesslam, 8/1 City Ground, 10/1 Elle Est, Rockie Bright, 14/1 Lady Anthracite, Ruler´s Honour, 20/1 Happy The Man, Music Festival, 25/1 Shesasnip, 66/1 Hitman Hatton.

DIOMED VERDICT: Although he's had a few chances, it's hard to get away from TESSLAM, who should be able to get off the mark in such an ordinary event.

Massive price gapper here and has had 4 runs in maiden company, 2nd on 3 of 4 occasions and despite maiden status , it will be a shock should he fail to place

905 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Youm Jamil, 2/1 Aattash, 9/4 Linnens Star, 33/1 Peckforton Castle, 66/1 Pappas Fc.

DIOMED VERDICT: LINNENS STAR can improve past Youm Jamil, who disappointed at Chester last time

Should be 3 horses and 2 places here.

SHORTLIST

IRISH CUP
745pm - Sportling Fingal v Mervue United - 1.16 - chosen purely as the shortest priced of the Irish Cup games

745pm - Slovenia v New Zealand - 1.53 - priced to be a competitive match, if I am right about Slovenia then they have the capabilities to win here i motivated to do so in another friendly.

New Zealand are layable at 8.8 for an equivalent 1.12 back bet

2pm - Meltzer v Nadal - 1.05 may be a good top up bet?

225 CATTERICK - of interest as this is an 8 runner race for 3 places. Niggle is the fact it is a seller. Chocolate Camarel drops into the grade and is odds on
Only 5 under 20/1 here makes this an interesting probability race. Perhaps the selling status of the race may preclude it from being a final bet.

245 EPSOM - The maestro of Ballydoyle fields another fav - all red in the live betting and 1.16 and free and clear fav in the place only market, there is always a concern with these high class races that the inherent qualities of all horses can make for surprises.
e
635 DONCASTR - another Johnston candidate here Roben's Rock is a price gapper here. Concern that this new recruit put in a good run last time and may not replicate that ( was coming off the back of a 7 month absence and posted poor previous form. Illiquid market but looks quite clear in the place only market.

645 GOODWOOD - Nebraas looks to be in a prime place only position, but I suspect this is reflected in the price. 1.08 to place is not giving much away - as I was writing this blog, b
ig money has come for Cadeaux Pearl ( Hannon debutant) which has halted the shortening o Nebraas's price

SHORTLIST O THE SHORTLIST

745pm - Slovenia v New Zealand - 1.53 - New Zealand should not win this match and are layable, if the 8.8 lay odds remain ( equivalent of a 1.12 back bet) and tradeable if Slovenia take the lead. ( always a slight concern the Kiwis will try for a 1-0) -Slovenia should be too much for them tonight -England beat them 2-1 which was no disgrace and New Zealand are no Eng-er-land

2pm - Meltzer v Nadal - 1.05 - with Fed out this is an ideal opportunity to win the French Open

Chocolate Caramel I will have to let go alas as it is a seller ( despite being an ideal place only race)
245 EPSOM - all 3 2010 runs have been impressive with 2 wins in last 2. Concern that all 3 recent runs have been in Ireland at the Curragh - has run at Epsom ( 2nd to Sea the Stars so is used to course and distance)
Really heavily backed today into 10/11 all red and 1.16 standout in the place market - there are only 5 horses under 33/1 and this makes Fame and Glory's chances of placing good from a probability perspective. No Sea the Stars this year.

645 GOODWOOD - Nebraas's race will have to be returned to nearer to 645 pm than now - the reason? Well market moves - already in the time it took me to write the blog, Cadeaux Pearl has come in for some significant support . If Nebraas is a sure fire future winner , as the journos at the Post exclaim, then he has an outstanding opportunity to place in an 8 runner race and 3 places and only 4 runners under 20/1