3/6

I cannot realistically negate all risk in bets and this is the case for the 450 Lingfield. The concern is that Dever Dream is a debutant on the all weather, and some horses could take instant dislikes to the surface. On a positive note, the horse is all red, odds on , has Ryan Moore onboard, and only has 3 to beat to place






*****ONE A DAY - 450 LINGFIELD - Dever Dream to place only - around 1.19 available at present and I hope the market remains liquid enough - more money will be available nearer the off*****









Very happy with yesterday's message, particularly the periphery bets such as Submarine and Twentynineblack both winning at large place only prices. I was suspicious of the prices yesterday but should, perhaps, have more faith in my analysis rather than taking cues solely from the betting market.

Just a note that the "f" and " e" on my keyboard keep sticking so sometimes these letters will be missing from elements of the message.

FOOTBALL
5pm - Spain v South Korea - 1.24 - in an ideal world (and not the world of the friendlies where Spain required a 90th+ minute winner to beat the mighty Saudi Arabia 3-2), this will be a cakewalk for Spain against what I expect to be a fit and spirited Korean side which ,on their day, could surprise.
Like yesterday with the Brazil game, we can get an idea, from the Betfair market makers, as to Spain's likely performance via the asian handicap. The asian handicap is +/- 1.5 to 2 goals so the market makers are expecting a tight game ( contrast with +2.5 in the Brazil game which, incidentally, was very accurate as the final score was 3-0)

Perhaps a match odds bet to trade if Spain lead at any stage in the match?

730pm - Germany v Bosnia - .133 - The Germans were good last time out in their previous friendly I think against Mexico ( not sure but they won comfortably) - the German team is NOT the full strength side the coach would have wished for, but they did produce a very attacking performance last time out and could be good for a back bet to trade today?

220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sharedah, 4/1 Blast Furnace, 7/1 Dolphina, Inner Angel, 10/1 Al Jaadl, Sensationally, 14/1 Budding Daffodil, Tymora, 20/1 Enchanting Smile, 33/1 Eastern Paramour, Greeley´s Qik Chic, 66/1 Red Willow, 100/1 Belvidera, Ericaceous.

DIOMED VERDICT: The well-bred SHAREDAH ran a promise-filled race on her debut at Newmarket and should come on a fair bit for the experience.

Maidens have generally tended to dominate early June flat races and do so again. Here the 2nd favourite is a non runner which should make life easier for the market leader? Slight concern with 20/1 3rd on sole run for the fav - must have been 20/1 or a reason?
An interesting possible probability race as there are only 7 horses under 66/1

300 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Osric, 7/4 Calon Crwbin, 12/1 Cityar, 14/1 Detroit Red, Klampenborg, 16/1 A Nun With A Gun, 33/1 Oxlea Lass.

DIOMED VERDICT: CALON CRWBIN can beat the other previous winner Osric.

A pity it is only 7 runners and 2 places here but this should be dominated by last time out winners Osic and Calon Crwbin
Osric has completed in his last 6 starts while Calon has completed his last 5 starts and was pulled up in one .
I think this kind of checking needs to be administered to these jumps race contenders.

410 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 King Of Eden, 11/2 Cheyenne Red, 13/2 Guest Connections, Tadalavil, 8/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 10/1 Sea Salt, 12/1 Botham, 20/1 Carnival Dream, 25/1 Hettie Hubble, 66/1 Sendreni.

DIOMED VERDICT: KING OF EDEN, who looked a sprinter going places when stepped back up in trip and butchering his rivals at Carlisle last week, is 8lb ahead of the handicapper under his penalty. Guest Connections, miles behind the selection there, can be expectedto improve back here at his happy hunting ground and is weighted to reverse last month's form with Tadalavil.

Price gapper here this King of Eden with Cheyenne Red the "all red" contender down to 7/2 now
Very positive analysis of his last race
"Nowhere near as competitive as the first division, with KING OF EDEN absolutely bolting clear to record his second win of the season. Not beaten far when fourth off this mark latest, he was seen to much better effect returned to these more positive tactics, and had the race in the bag well over 1f out. In this sort of form he may take some stopping if turning out under a penalty at Newcastle on Friday, although his trainer, Eric Alston, doesn´t want to overdo it with this fine, rangy sort, whom he hopes has a bright future."

Do we trust him to run well again if still ahead of the handicapper?

450 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dever Dream, 100/30 Faited To Pretend, 7/2 Caramelita, 11/2 Katy´s Secret, 10/1 Mrs Boss, 12/1 Boragh Jamal,

DIOMED VERDICT: DEVER DREAM created a good impression on her reappearance and should continue to progress.

8 runners down to 6 now and still 3 places on Betfair. The Ryan Moore ridden Dever Dream is now odds on, and all red, as a result and only needs not be beaten by 3 in this 6 horse race.
The outsiders are priced at around 16/1 here which indicates a potentially tight handicap but Dever Dream's jockey could swing it for the places

Only had 2 runs and not run on all weather yet.

510 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Bona Fortuna, 5/1 Sheiling, 8/1 Meetings Man, 14/1 Storm Command, Vittachi, 20/1 Goodison Park, 40/1 Hotgrove Boy, Star Of Kalani.

DIOMED VERDICT: BONA FORTUNA is hard to get away from under a penalty for last week's easy handicap debut win even if he isn't guaranteed an easy lead. Sheiling, have her first start in a handicap, looks the one to worry about.

Another prominent price gapper here in Bona Fortuna who retains this price gap in the live betting market.
8 runners and 3 places is perfect for each way betting. The concern is this is apprentice ridden, which over middle distances like 1 mile 3 , can lead to ( worse case scenario) a misjudgement of pace and consequent weakening at the finish.

Analysis of last race
"was being stepped up in distance for this handicap debut off a mark of 59. Hailing from a yard which produces similar types to run up sequences once handicapped, it was rather surprising he was not that well-supported beforehand. This was a very taking display from a leggy individual and, after making all, he drew readily clear when shaken up before being heavily eased inside the final furlong. He holds several entries at the end of the month. With what he beat here looking modest it is hard to assess the performance, but it would be unwise not to keep him on the right side before the handicapper has his say."

Up in trip again to 11 furlongs from 10 last time out.

550 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Pure Faith, 2/1 Yeomanry, 9/4 Flicka´s Witness, 14/1 O´Callaghan Strand, 33/1 Carraigh Na Loine, Humbel Lad, Mr Chippy, 100/1 Patrick Dee, Simbamead.

DIOMED VERDICT: Flicka's Witness and Yeomanry shouldn't be long in winning but PURE FAITH is more battle-hardened and, back over 2m, looks the one to be with.

Looks a 3 horse race here and Pure Faith retains slight favouratism - pure faith that the front 3 dominate the places here.

710 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Turf War, 7/2 Ireland´s Call, 9/2 Lady Hillingdon, 8/1 Tribes And Banner, 10/1 Our Symphony, 12/1 Indian Spring, 14/1 Ionisphere, 16/1 Club Oscar, 20/1 Anothercrossmammy, Hugbensin, Red Kingdom, 50/1 Clifton Pier, Harbour Bay, 66/1 Cloonmore Boy, 100/1 Kempinski, Saol Nua,

Last time I flagged up the excellent Davy Russell on a market leader , he obliged. More today? But it is a beginners chase on Firm ground.

745 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Forjoetheplumber, 5/2 Prince Roco, 11/4 Strongpoint, 6/1 Sharadi, 8/1 Chaussettes, 20/1 Shan Brogeen, 25/1 Freighduff, 33/1 Dushlain, Manthatwasclose, Mr Ramsay, 50/1 Grey Stone Road, Marine Hall, 66/1 Gleaming River, 100/1 Blue´s Gold, Lough Allen, Wrengirl,

See above re Russell, this time on Strongpoint who has catapulted two horses into favouratism here.

810 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Totoman, 9/2 Players Please, 8/1 Hypnotic Gaze, Mr Melodious, 9/1 Gordon Road, 10/1 Bet Noir, Starbougg, Turner Brown, 14/1 Cordier, 20/1 Kashubian Quest, 25/1 Blue Jet, 33/1 Castle Myth, Lava Steps, 50/1 Bold Indian.

DIOMED VERDICT: TOTOMAN must hold leading claims given his Irish hurdles form on a first run for a yard going well.

I am not sure about the transferability of Irish form to the English sphere but Totoman is obviously fancied ( all red and 7/4 some 9 hours before the off!!)

825 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Direct Answer, 13/2 Quick Deal, 9/1 Montparnasse, 10/1 Judicious, Kensei, Whitby Jack, 12/1 Ticket To Paradise, Voysey, 16/1 Dynamic Air, Formulation, Out Of Eden, 28/1 Abu Wathab, 40/1 That´s Showbiz, 66/1 Ancestral Dream, Gilderoy, 100/1 Southwark Newsman,

DIOMED VERDICT: DIRECT ANSWER sets a useful standard.

The best price gapper of the day and stronger in the early morning live market at 4/6 - - - - 10/1
BUT has only had one run!
It was a good run
"
Direct Answer, a half-brother to decent all-weather performer Evident Pride, and making his racecourse debut, was unlucky. His rider went for a run up the inside rail that got blocked by the third, who was being leaned on by Eavesdropper, but he still had enough of an engine to close on the winner once switched towards the middle of the course. He will undoubtedly start a short price next time if running in a maiden, but it would take a decent one to beat him if reproducing this effort."
A neck 2nd and we can interpret this as a horse who is, for all intensive porpoises, a winner in a maiden.
Hence the huge price gap? Ryan Moore rides for Michael Stoute.
As this is a maiden and there are 5 debutants, we do need to consult the live betting market much closer to 825 - it is simply folly to make any betting decisions so early.

905 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Coral Cove, 7/2 Sunsalve, 6/1 Rody, 8/1 Alhudhud, 17/2 Orlittlebylittle, 9/1 Tealissio, 12/1 Pathlow, 16/1 Midnight Place, Seam Of Diamonds, 20/1 Instant Decision, Lukeys Luck, 50/1 Satch.

DIOMED VERDICT: A chance is taken on newcomer ALHUDHUD.

Sunsalve is the market mover, albeit early on, into 11/8 favouratism in this bumper in which we MUST consult the live betting market

SHORTLIST
5pm Spain v South Korea - 1.25 - logic dictates a win for Spain, but logic and friendlies are not good bedfellows - a trading angle perhaps backing Spain and trading out if they lead at any stage.

1pm Meltzer v Nadal - quite astounding to be 1.05 in a major tournament semi final. This is Nadal's tournament to lose!

2 Selections Chosen 1 Spain v South Korea (Laying South Korea @ 18.96) 2 Germany v Bosnia (Laying Bosnia @ 14.87)

Doubles Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1 and 2 1.13 £100.00 £13.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake: £100.00 Your total potential win: £13.00 Submit your bet(s) now?

Interesting lay double here using Betfair Multiples? - effectively 4 out of 6 bets are covered. I could hedge as both bets are in running

300 NEWTON ABBOTT - probably not a good one a day as it is only 2 places. I would look at this race if there are any late non runners

410 HAMILTON - King of Eden is apparently well ahead of the handicapper here and deserves some consideration but Cheyenne Red is the one for money , making King drift slightly ( albeit some 5+ hours before race time

Around 1.27 to place the fav.

450 LINGFIELD - a potential one a dayer here in this original 8 runner race down to 6 runners, with 2 horses at 16/1 who hopefully will not be challenging or the places, and the Ryan Moore ridden
Dever Dream is all red, at 5/6 in places, has the assistance of the flat champion jockey and needs only beat 3 to place
1.19 to place

Niggles are the fact he is a debutant on the all weather but as this is a 6 furlong race o 6 races, he should have no problems re kickback. (Note, backing debutants in whatever sphere i.e new to hurdles/chase/distance/ground or in this case surface needs an element of caution)

510 HAMILTON - another significant price gapper in Bona Fortuna but it is a little disconcerting that this is apprentice ridden and class 6.
8 runners and 3 places and 1.11 to place. "hard to get away from" says Diomed

825 SANDOWN - the best price gapper, albeit in the live betting market rather than the betting forecast, Direct Answer - as I have been writing the blog, there has been a big plunge for Out of Eden from 16/1 in the betting forecast now 2nd fav and 5/1 which reduces the price gap somewhat .

I really need to comment again at around 810pm

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

The multiple covers 4 results from 6 for the 2 friendlies and could be worth chancing for a 1.13 return. If South Korea or Bosnia win, we will lose this bet. Niggles? Friendlies!!!

I suppose backing Nadal could enhance any bet by 1.05 - Meltzer likely to be friar tucked after his epic comeback against Djokovic??

450 LINGFIELD - Dever Dream is all red, odds on and has 5 opponents ( 3 in the place only market. Ryan Moore in the saddle is good.
My negative is the fact this horse is a debutant on an all weather surface. Now, there is never going to be a risk averse bet where I can negate all risk but I am happy with the probability here and hope the money is telling.

825 SANDOWN needs consultation nearer the off rather than 8 1/2 hours previously - as I have written the blog, one horse has come in for support - this is a maiden after all


--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

2/6

All sub 1.10 today or the shortlist o the shortlist , and I think I will add a more speculative bet each day - I cannot vouch or the strike rate with these of course ( hence the labelling as more speculative)


***** ONE A DAY - 230pm - Zimbabwe v Brazil - Back Brazil in the match odds at 1.09 ******


An element of speculation given the performance of some of the pre World Cup friendlies but this is Zimbabwe!!
Nadal looks to exploit Fed's absence and have a far easier chance of winning on his favourite surface.
Red Fantasy should place and i I can I will update the blog only at 820pm ( 20 mins before the off just to give my commentary on market moves as this is a maiden)




A bit of umming and ahhing yesterday but it paid of in the end with the shortlist o the shortlist all obliging which was pleasing after the run out the day before.

The Fed bet was a winner as he won the first set and trading was advised ( despite losing the match a profit was still made)

Just a note for those who can follow the live betting. In the 625 yesterday, there were 3 horses under 20/1 in the betting. One of those became a non runner, leaving Praxiteles and Old MacDonald way clear. On occasions like this it is a pity to not exploit, given betfair still paid 3 places.

FOOTBALL

230pm- Zimbabwe v Brazil - 1.09 - hmmm what do we have here then? One team is a colossus of world football and the other is Brazil. This should be nothing less than a massacre surely?

Of course this is a PR exercise pre world cup launch and is ultimately meaningless, but even if the Brazilians played blindfolded they should still post a reasonable score.

£24K at 1.08 should ensure liquidity.

I do remember previous friendlies where Brazil played the likes of Saudi and won 1-0 so they may be experimental but then again my argument is that this is so near the World Cup that any signs of weakness will be sniffed out by others.

The asian handicap usually gives you a fair idea of what the market makers expect, and they expect Brazil to score 2 or more.

Over 2.5 goals is 1.33 which is quite reasonable and tradeable.

Enhance odds further? Halftime/fulltime Brazil/Brazil is 1.41 but not guaranteed to come in given the nature of the game.

Over 6.5 goals is highly speculative but could be achievable if Brazil take this seriously and click ( and don't do a Pork and Cheese). At a tasty 10/1 it is worth a nibble and the odds will reduce dramatically with a goal laden first half

6pm- Panserraikos v Pierikos - 1.11 -

Home team Panserraikos have a home record of 9-4-5 (W-D-L) for their 18 home games this season, 31 points from a possible 54. That's a home points average of 1.72 compared to 1.65 for all games this season. Panserraikos's recent points average is 2.67, 16 points from 6 games 5-1-0 (W-D-L) Panserraikos's last 10 league games record reads WLWLWWDWWW (WLWLWWDWWW) while their last 10 home league games read DLLWWWWWWW (LLLWWWWWWW).

Away team Pierikos have an away record of 3-10-5 (W-D-L) for their 18 away games this season, 19 points from a possible 54. That's an away points average of 1.06 compared to 1.38 for all games this season. Pierikos's recent points average is 1.00, 6 points from games; Pierikos's last 10 league games record reads WDLWDWDDLL (WDLWDWDDLL) while their last 10 away league games read DLDWLDLDDL(DLDWLDLDDL).

10 away draws for the away side is a really eyecatching stat here.. They don't lose many away from home.

These 2 met on the 30th May and this looks to be a playoff. On 30th May, Pans. won 4-1. They look to have clear advantage and would seem to only come away with a small victory to win the play off? ( of course I know feck all about Greek 2nd division play off formats!!)

7pm- Albania v Andorra - 1.17 - a really mouthwatering affair that will , erm, have football fans on all continents frozen infront of TV screens in anticipation. If Albania are 1.17 to win, Andorra must be very very bad indeed.

215pm - French Open -Almagro v Nadal - 1.08 - with Fed out this bet must be put in that context. The French Open looks at the mercy of clay court God Nadal ( with an injury free passage) - Nadal to win 3-0 is as high as 1.65 and does relay the status of this as a quarter final ( his opponent is not there by chance)

220 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Sir Frank, Twentynineblack, 5/1 Silverlord, 7/1 Quatro Pierji, 8/1 Sadler´s Star, 10/1 Barron Watlass, Heart Of Dubai, 14/1 Duke Of Burgundy, Nelson´s Chief, 25/1 Red Skipper, 33/1 Daasij, Oh Landino, 50/1 Remark.

DIOMED VERDICT: The consistent TWENTYNINEBLACK impressed at Bangor last time and can take this.

I like significant non runners and here Sir Frank is the one. This leaves original joint fav Twentynineblack with an easier chance than before, and I note the superb Maguire/McCain jr partnership as well.

300 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Maxwil, 6/4 Karasakal, 7/2 Bankstair,

DIOMED VERDICT: Karasakal is a possible blot on the handicap on his chase debut but MAXWIL did well when second over fences recently. Good probability race - 3 horses and 2 places - stick a pin in the racing post, and place back that horse, hope he completes and hope he does not bet beaten by 2 others in a 3 horse race. 335 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Risk Challenge, 5/1 Nobby Kivambo, 6/1 Lady Florence, 9/1 Regain Du Charbonneau, 10/1 Atabaas Allure, 12/1 Rosenblatt, 16/1 Majestic Bull, Royal Prodigy, What´s For Tea, 20/1 Papradon, 25/1 Quiditch D´Ouxy, 40/1 Iveragh Lad, 50/1 Musical Affair. DIOMED VERDICT: RISK CHALLENGE (nap) faces a big hike in the weights after last week's easy win and new connections will be keen to strike before the handicapper has a chance to react. Interesting support for Nobby into 5/2 / 9/4 all red candidate - the McCoy factor perhaps may have some bearing? First handicap for Nobby today and someone obviously fancies his chances 440 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lord Gunnerslake, 5/1 My Matilda, Play A Cord, 13/2 Geography, 10/1 Arctic Ghost, Eastwell Smiles, The Pious Prince, 14/1 Legal Glory, Snark, 25/1 Albert Park, Spider Boy, 33/1 Eddystone, 66/1 Ocheekobee, 100/1 Send For Tim. DIOMED VERDICT: MY MATILDA has won both completed starts for this yard and is fancied to beat Lord Gunnerslake. Price gapper here whose price in the live market has shortened to 7/4 in places, but 9/4 in other places. Last 4 chase races have been 1121 and he reverts to hurdles now -obviously looks a safe conveyance over the major obstacles so should be theoretically more so over hurdles. Slight concern that the big names ( Johnson/MCCoy) present in previous runs are absent this time - cos it's a conditional jockeys event I have just noticed 450 NOTTINGHAM BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cityscape, 5/2 Rio De La Plata, 9/2 Balcarce Nov, 8/1 Aspectus, City Style, 9/1 Captain Brilliance, 28/1 Carcinetto, 200/1 Gessabelle. DIOMED VERDICT: It could be worth siding with solid handicap performer BALCARCE NOV, who looks virtually guaranteed to run his race. It is amazing how some days take on themes - well today's would seem to be the significant non runner, and here Cityscape is that non runner. Surely then Godolphin's Rio De La Plata should find this lesser grade within his compass and place at least? Is Balcarce Nov reall " guaranteed to run his race" under Frank Spencer? - 2nd fav now 550 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Button Moon, 4/1 Cold Secret, 6/1 The Thrill Is Gone, 8/1 Allegrissimo, 10/1 My Mate Al, 12/1 Palindromic, Silly Billy, 14/1 Excello, Furiosa, 33/1 Zohan, 50/1 Lord Of The Storm, 100/1 Miss Maudie. DIOMED VERDICT: Cold Secret is a half-brother to first-time-out 2yo winners and out of a Lowther Stakes winner, so looks worth market scrutiny but BUTTON MOON has very solid form in the book, chasing home a Windsor Castle possible after finishing third to the subsequent Listed National Stakes winner on her debut. Although 2 runs may not be solid from a form reading perspective, Button moon is progressing 32 and the form of his 3rd has captured the imagination of the Racing Post journos A maiden though or 2 year olds - faith then in this 2 run form being an adequate cue to running today. Excello a possible market mover 650 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Submariner, 5/1 Luc Jordan, 15/2 Franco Is My Name, 10/1 The Kyllachy Kid, Wise Dennis, 11/1 Highly Regal, Thunderstruck, 12/1 Greylami, Mr Hichens, 14/1 Sohcahtoa, 16/1 Stevie Thunder, 20/1 Classic Punch, Yahrab, 25/1 Silver Point. DIOMED VERDICT: LUC JORDAN can recoup Chester losses but Submariner and Franco Is My Name are both very credible threats. It always excites me to see Frankie Dettori onboard a Mark Johnston horse who is head of the market - Submariner ! All weather debut - hopefully he gets a lead and then should show typical Johnston battling qualities 740 RIPON BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Timeless Stride, 4/1 Kellys Eye, 5/1 Masked Dance, 7/1 Esuvia, 10/1 Beat Baby, Solstice, Walvis Bay, 12/1 Johannesgray, 14/1 Cape Kimberley, Licence To Till, 33/1 Nubar Boy, 50/1 Celestial Tryst. DIOMED VERDICT: Thr drop back to 6f will not be a problem for C&D winner MASKED DANCE and he is preferred to Kellys Eye and Timeless Stride. Money for Kellys eye today and all red 7/4 in places -recent good placed runs. 750 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Jambo Bibi, Zanazzi, 6/1 Lily Again, 8/1 Paris Is Burning, 12/1 Ellie In The Pink, 14/1 Darwin Star, 20/1 Evaso Nice, 33/1 Chilworth Lass, Mrs Neat, Te Amo Jen, Terrys Flutter. DIOMED VERDICT: ZANAZZI is bred to be smart and she can make a winning debut in a race that may lack strength in depth. obligatory Hannon/Hughes maiden heads the market in Jimbo Bibi who is a 2 time 2nd placed maiden. 5 debutants including one sharing favourites in Zanazzi 840 RIPON BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Red Fantasy, 6/1 Invitee, 8/1 Sadler´s Mark, 12/1 Retrato, 20/1 Queen´s Scholar, 25/1 Line Of Duty, Mainland, Peaceful Rule, 100/1 Arkas. DIOMED VERDICT: An obvious opportunity for RED FANTASY, who takes a big drop in class after finishing seciond in a 1m2f Newmarket Listed event on return and then bringing up the rear in the Musidora. The big price gappers did the business yesterday and this is the best one of the day so far. At first glance, this maiden's form looks bad, BUT then it was class 1 group 3, class 1 and class 2 "clearly one to beat" 3 debutants include 1 which is provisional 2nd fav. SHORTLIST I bet you can probably guess the one a day today? 230pm Zimbabwe v Brazil - 1.09 - if Brazil lose this ultimately meaningless friendly, I will wear my mother's sunday best for 10 years!! This should be a massacre really. But do remember Spain required a 90th minute winner recently when similarly priced. -Enhanced bet perhaps? Halftime/fulltime Brazil/Brazil might carry risks as it is a friendly Over 2.5 goals, in an ideal world, should oblige with such a short match odds price 7pm- Albania v Andorra - 1.17 - Albania are hardly world powerhouses themselves, so if they are 1.17, Andorra must be truly shocking. 215pm - Almagro v Nadal - 1.08 - with Fed out, this tournament looks Nadal's French Open 220 CARTMEL - a little speculative but original fav is a non runner, and Twentynineblack is a MAguire/McCain jr horse, and at 1.46 to place, is quite clear of the opposition in that market, with next best over evens. As ever, we know the traditional warning that comes with jumps meetings 300 FONTWELL - must be included as the best probability race of the day - 3 horses and 2 places, but a chase so a large slice of luck required. I cannot chose from the 3 albeit to say that I would decide via the market (solely in order to make a decision and nothing else) Well, the outsider is Bankstair so chose one of the joint favs? 440 FONTWELL - Lord Gunnerslake looks a good place only contender reverting to hurdles now after proving a safe conveyance over the larger jumps. 1.79 to place is suspiciously high or can be viewed from a glass half full perspective as a tasty place price which can be traded in running. A conditional jockey's race is the niggle 450 NOTTS - the first race with the significant non runner sees Rio de la plata take over favouratism albeit I get the feeling he is not a strong fav. A ready disappointment last time out - a blip or a sign of decline? This is a 7 runner race, 3 places and 2 clear outsiders who should make this a 5 horse race for 3 places. Mel Cullinan , today's Spotlight writer, is sweet on Balcarce Nov who might be worth a place bet given the probability nature of this race? Frank Spencer on board. 650 KEMPTON - Submariner makes me excited here for reasons discussed earlier - all red 5/2 and 11/4 and Dettori/Johnston a mouthwatering bunch - 1.72 to place - hmmm! Suspiciously high or again use the glass half full analogy of before. 840 RIPON - I love big price gappers and Red Fantasy is 2/5 with next best 6/1 ( note this one is a debutant with Ryan Moore booked and can be anything) Also be careful with Queens scholar, now 12/1 and backed for the Johnston yard who was eased on debut when beaten. So anything but clear cut ( as is typical of maidens ) but Red Fantasy should surely take advantage of this significant drop in class. 1.07 to place says it all really SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 230pm- Zimbabwe v Brazil - 1.09 - should be straightforward The more speculative can look to halftime/fulltime Brazil/Brazil or goals bets ( over 2.5) - the asian handicap market expects around 2-3 goals win for Brazil, and any enhanced bet assumes we ackowledge that friendlies are dodgy betting propositions at the best of time 215pm - Almagro v Nadal - 1.08 although quarter finals of major tournaments are not gimmes, the absence of Federer must surely spur Nadal on. 840 RIPON - Red Fantasy should place but this needs a look at nearer the off, as a maiden race, the market might reveal more. MORE SPECULATIVE Not official shortlist of the shortlist but ,given my increasing frustration at calling so many place only races right, I thought I would highlight likely more speculative bets . 450 NOTTS - ignore Rio de la Plata perhaps and plump with Mel Cullinan's Balcarce Nov idea at 1.42? -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

1/6

Although I have 3 shortlist of the shortlist bets, I am reluctant to put them up as one a days as one is a 2 year old having only his 2nd run ( no consistent form after only one run!), one is in a jumps race where we have not only rivals but the obstacles, and one is a class 6 0-55 handicapper.

***** ONE A DAY - given all of these horses are featured in races later on in the day I will attempt to update as the bettingmarkets will be a lot clearer nearer the time i I can get online. As things stand a no bet day as I write but I suspect the shortlist of the shortlist has a reasonable chance of coming good in one race which is a 50/50, another which has 8 runners, 3 places and





For a horse to run out when quite clearly we were on the best horse in the race is simply bad luck. This happened twice some weeks ago in 2 consecutive races to 2 solid favourites AT THE LAST FENCE so I know how it feels now. The horse did not fall, unseat rider or get pulled up. There was significant support for Mhilu and quite simply it was a reminder these are animals not machines, sometimes with a will of their own.

I think I was vindicated in my decision as the fact this was 2 places over jumps had no bearing on something as unforeseeable as this.
The extremely good probability bet came good as the market leader placed in the first 3 which was what I was after so followers of the shortlist of the shortlist may have been able to reduce overall losses yesterday.

A real pity I was unaware of Quality Road at Belmont last night. Would you like updates if I sniff these late opportunities out? ( I found about it at the Betfair Forum - this was THE top US flat Horse)

A disappointing end to May.

FOOTBALL

730pm Netherlands v Ghana - 1.38 - for me, these emerging African footballing nations are not to be underestimated and Ghana is a super fit team who could really be difficult to beat, BUT the market tells a completely different story.
LIC
FRENCH OPEN
215pm Federer v Soderling - 1.25 - the assumption is that Fed is fully wound up for a tournament he has really been gearing up to for some time. Tennis really is not my forte as you may well have ascertained, and this bet must be traded should Fed be a set up at any stage in the match.


215 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Elshabakiya, 7/2 Star Today, 11/2 Catalinas Diamond, Crying Lightening, 8/1 Dubai Affair, 9/1 Countess Ellen, 25/1 My Elliemay, 33/1 Princess Izzy, Water Ice.

DIOMED VERDICT: ELSHABAKIYA is an obvious starting point after her good first try at Sandown, though it will be interesting to see what the market says about both Star Today and Dubai Affair.

Another one time out maiden favourite who is odds on here and fancied to improve on initial 2nd place.
Cry Lightening is the market mover here. A very messy and illiquid place only market here with Elshabakiya as 1.15 clear favourite.


Caution advised as usual here in this 2 year old 5 furlong maiden with 6 debutants and 3 one time out performers

230 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Madany, 7/2 Bahamian Sunset, 7/1 Playful Girl, 10/1 Box Of Frogs, 12/1 Lady Del Sol, 14/1 Hayley Cropper, 25/1 Antipas, Somebody Loves You, 33/1 Miss Cosette, Susiesstaying,

DIOMED VERDICT: The one to beat is MADANY who looks sure to improve on her encouraging debut second at Newmarket last month. Bahamian Sunset looks the most interesting of the newcomers.

The price gap is much bigger in the live betting market thus making Madany of some interest 4/7 - - - - 8/1 but in another frustrating day, this is a one time out performer certainly put up by the betting market as miles ahead of his fellow 2 year olds here.

Not quite a clear cut bet as we have 5 debutants, and 5 one time out performers - still if the market is accurate in this 2 year old maiden then Madany should place with ease and like Mhilu yesterday the evens in the betting forecast has been battered into 4/7 and 2/1 in places 1.12 to place

300 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lastkingofscotland, 4/1 Liberty Trail, 6/1 Fortunate Bid, 7/1 Angel Of Fashion, Jimwil, 8/1 Deely Plaza, 10/1 Blue Noodles, 16/1 King´s Sabre, 20/1 Jenny´s Pride, 100/1 Home Before Dark, Isle Of Ellis.

DIOMED VERDICT: David Evans has a strong hand with Lastkingofscotland, Liberty Trail and Blue Noodles, but they may all be trumped by FORTUNATE BID who looked well worth the drop back to 7f when third at Carlisle last week.

Carrying on the frustrating race types, here we have a selling stakes race which sees LastkingofScotland as a price gapper in the live market 13/8 - - - - 6/1 - and never within more than 3 lengths of the winner in his last 6 races.

I rather think though that he has done his winning, and the very sight of multiple entries by the trainer might signal a possible gamble on the bigger priced horse, while others focus on the short priced favourite ( oh I am such a skeptic)

345 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Comedy Act, 7/1 Buona Sarah, Celebrian, 15/2 Celtic Ransom, 10/1 Sultan´s Choice, 11/1 Akamon, 12/1 Admiral Breese, 16/1 Bandear, Shades Of Grey, 20/1 Sunshine Buddy, 40/1 Rainsborough, 50/1 A P Ling,

DIOMED VERDICT: COMEDY ACT is the obvious place to turn after last week's win and with his trainer renowned for running up sequences with his 3yos at this sort of level.

Another price gapper who was a ready winner when dropped to the bottom class last time out and is well in under a penalty - Diomed is quite true that the trainer, Sir Mark Prescott , is reknowned for winning sequences in handicaps.
Class 6 may be Comedy Act's level because he has been appalling in class 5 and higher.
5/6 - - - - - 5/1 in the live betting shows, again, a shortening of the betting forecast price in the live betting market.1.22 to place

430 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Grey Bunting, 3/1 Clearly Cryptonite, 7/2 Music City, 5/1 Weekend Millionair, 7/1 Opening Nite, 33/1 Siberian Sunset, 50/1 Robbie Burnett, Sinatramania, Suleimah, 66/1 On The Right Path.

DIOMED VERDICT: Windsor second GREY BUNTING sets the standard on form but with newcomers from the Cecil, Johnston and Fahey yards among the opposition, the market is likely to be revealing.

Another, guess what? - maiden! Interesting in that only 5 horses are under 33/1 and if these ones dominate, then they only really have 3 to beat to place. The niggle is obvious isn't it - big stable debutants who by reputation of their yards could be anything.

545 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Margot Did, 7/2 Joyously, 6/1 Al Burkaan, 10/1 Novabridge, 100/1 Sister June.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to see past MARGOT DID while Joyously looks next best

Margot Did is yet another whose betting forecast price is shorter in the live betting market ( now 2/5) - only 2 places and a 2 year old novices stakes , so why is Margot Did "hard to see past"?
With one horse at 100/1 or bigger, this is a 50/50 race - 2 will place and 2 not

625 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Praxiteles, 5/2 Old McDonald, 6/1 Totoman, 14/1 Wilbury Star, 20/1 Ask Archer, U B Carefull, 33/1 Majd Aljazeera, 100/1 Trew Style.

DIOMED VERDICT: Old McDonald's bumper form would read well in most company but PRAXITELES won nicely at Aintree and is an impeccably-bred individual with a good deal of improvement still in him.

As one reader pointed out to me, whenever I pick a McCoy ridden horse as one a day, he tends to bollock it up ( 3 occasions I believe, including yesterday). BUT in a new day, he loves Ffos Las and is on a fav who is one of 3 under 20/1 in the betting forecast and live market and , as we well know, requires a complete round!!

825 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Anne Of Kiev, 11/2 Rough Rock, 7/1 Whiskey Junction, 8/1 Maryolini, 10/1 Amosite, Dvinsky, 12/1 Requisite, 14/1 Captainrisk, Piazza San Pietro, 16/1 Simple Rhythm.

DIOMED VERDICT: ANNE OF KIEV is the one who is ahead of the handicapper though form elsewhere doesn't always translate that well to this particular track. Course specialist Rough Rock is preferred of the others.

Another price gapper here but caution regarding the change to Yarmouth

855 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Aestival, 9/1 Libre, 10/1 Al Rayanah, 12/1 Ocean Of Peace, 14/1 Achromatic, 16/1 Haasem, Holyfield Warrior, 20/1 Comrade Cotton, Mister Frosty, 33/1 Alternative Choice, Croeso Cusan,

DIOMED VERDICT: AESTIVAL will be hard to beat with Al Rayanah next best

The most dominant price gapper of the say is Aestival who the market relates has tons in hand over his opponents. A class 6 0-55 handicap price gapper and these can run up winning sequences.
Recall what I wrote earlier about he trainer, a certain Sir Mark Prescott in a handicap.
A winner last time out and priced to run up a winning sequence. 0-55 handicaps though are full of, quite naturally, lowly rated horses, but price gappers in class 6 0-55 handicaps have an excellent place only ratio.

SHORTLIST
Maiden, maiden , seller, class 6 handicap, maiden, 2 year old novices stakes are the first 6 races above - I could not have picked worse race types, particularly with the maidens having a number of debutants and one time outers open to possible considerable improvement.
Of those 6 rubbish race types, my first shortlister will be
230 REDCAR - Madany's betting forecast price of evens is now 4/7 and at 1.12 to place, is miles clear in the place only market with next best at 2.2 in a market which, apart from the market lleader, is very illiquid.
You should be able to tell me the possible niggles - one time out performer , and as a 2 year old, expected to automatically reproduce initial effort against 5 debutants and 4 one time outers open to possible improvement.
The analysis of sole initial run is very strong "Madany cost 130,000gns and is half-sister to six siblings that scored at two. She looks sure to further enhance the family record based on this very promising first run and there should be plenty more to come with this experience under her belt. It will take a good one to beat her next time."

Positives? - the above analysis and the price gap.

345 LEICESTER - class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper Comedy Act is on a winning run and may run well again today - 5/6 in the live market. I am not overtly taken by middle distance races - 1.22 in an illiquid market.

Niggles - the level class 6 0-65 - these are lowly rated sorts who may be inconsistent.
Positives? price gapper now odds on so the market fancies him. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott adept at handicap placing.

545 YARMOUTH - Margot Did is " a cut above this level" as winner last time at 8/1 under Hayley "head" Turner.
This race is effectively a 50/50 race, 4 runners and 2 places so we know the probabilities - an evens bet!!
1.12 to not get beaten by 2 others in effectively a 4 horse race.
Niggles - a 2 year old novices stakes race this one and as a 2 year old only having a 2nd run, the horse has not had sufficient chance to create reliable form.

625 FFOS LAS - yes I know McCoy probably reads this blog and gets nervous if I pick him because he keeps ballsing up when one a day, but I must say he loves Ffos Las and his Praxiteles was a ready winner last time out.
This is a superb place only race, being as it is 8 runners and 3 places.
There are only 3 horses under 20/1 here so Praxiteles needs to complete of course, and , as well as not unseat, fall, or get pulled up, he must also NOT run out!
1.13 to place, Old Macdonald is 1.2 to place and the rest far bigger prices.

855 YARMOUTH - Aestival is the biggest price gapper of the day and deserves inclusion in the shortlist on that basis alone.

Like a previous price gapper, this one appears in a class 6 0-55 handicap race and as I already mentioned, the trainer Sir Mark Prescott, is a good placer of horses in handicaps. As well as this, these types of price gappers are normally solid placers.

Niggles - lowly grade can produce inconsistent performers as a natural byproduct . Middle distance races can be open to misjudgement by jockeys.
Positives? - HUGE price gapper and best of the day - trainer must be respected and Seb Sanders stays for last race of the night.

Around 1.2 to place , I cannot comment on this race until about 830pm.

730pm- Netherlands v Ghana - 1.38 - if we follow the market strictly, then this should be easy for the Orange Men, but Ghana are an ultra fit unit and this is a friendly so it will probably remain only as an afterthought.

French Open 215pm- Federer v Soderling - 1.25 - looks a great price for a player who has focussed solely on getting ready for this tournament. I would trade only here if Fed goes a set up.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

What a hugely frustrating set of race types the betting gods have given us today. The shortlist comprises the following

• 2 year old maiden
  
• class 6 0-65 rated middle distance handicap
• 2 year old novices stakes
• 8 runner class 4 novices hurdle
• class 6 0-55 handicap

A motley crew where we require faith in the 2 year olds, both of which have only had the one run and are automatically expected ( despite not having quite obviously produced any form lines ) to reproduce initial effort.

Class 6 o-60 and lower rated handicaps are not reliable by the very nature of the lowly ratings .
The 2 year old novices stakes race is worthy of a bet for those wanting a bit of a gamble.
This is a 5 runner race
545 YARMOUTH - with a clear outsider who can be ignored. This leaves 4 horses vying for 2 places and Margot Did as my selection here to not get beaten by 2 others in a 4 horse race - highly illiquid betting market.
Again this is a 2 year old who has only had one run so would it really be a shock if this one underperformed? That is the consideration.

625 FFOS LAS - 8 runners and only 3 horses under 25/1 makes this ideal place only material with the 3 under 25/1 the only ones to consider. Any involvement here assumes the horses will not fall, unseat rider, get pulled up , or run out as we saw yesterday. Yes McCoy again but he does love Ffos las.

855 YARMOUTH - Aestival is the best price gapper of the day and clearly expected to run very well indeed here - I need to update much nearer race time.