10/10

Art Trend placed - actually the first 3 in the market placed in the first 3 - a good example of a probability bet

405 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Astarador, 7/2 Bougoure, 6/1 The Duke´s Speech, 8/1 Master Nimbus, Tell Henry, 14/1 All For The Cause, 20/1 Cavers Glen, 25/1 High Stand Lad, 33/1 Art Historian, 66/1 Earl Sigurd.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of these have shown enough over fences to suggest they can win races, but this looks a good opportunity for useful hurdler ASTARADOR to open his chase account at the first time of asking

A novices chase - a maiden for chasers really!

		Astarador Denis O'Regan
» £0.00

2.48

	Astarador Denis O'Regan
» £0.00, £0.00

1.38

215 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Musleh, 6/1 The Fonz, 7/1 Test Match, Ysing Yi, 9/1 Dr Valentine, 16/1 Ateeb, Royal Diamond, 33/1 Eastern Empire, Lady Lu, Silverglas, 50/1 Pedasus, 100/1 Music In The Glen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The outside draw could make things tricky, but Dewhurst/Racing Post Trophy entry MUSLEH has an obvious chance on his debut second here. The Fonz could give him most to do.

Nice price gap but another maiden with an outside draw and the Fonz in close attendance - Dr Valentine a non runner makes life easier.

Musleh L. Dettori » £0.00	1.72
9 (5) The Fonz Ryan Moore » £0.00	4.2

Musleh L. Dettori » £0.00, £0.00	1.15
9 (5) The Fonz Ryan Moore » £0.00, £0.00	1.42

420
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Charm School, 8/1 Grand Vizier, 12/1 Alfresco, Elysee Palace, Formation, Salient, Saltagioo, The Which Doctor, 16/1 Amazing Star, 20/1 Bazergan, 33/1 Kayak,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The handicapper looks to have taken a real chance in allocating CHARM SCHOOL a mark of 89, with the three horses he split at Sandown on his second start now rated 108, 100 and 93. Given it was only his inexperience that cost him on that occasion, it will be disappointing if he isn't too strong for some exposed handicappers. Formation may prove best of the rest.

Some price gap and another handeicap good thing?

	Charm School Jimmy Fortune
» £0.00

2.56

	Charm School Jimmy Fortune
» £0.00, £0.00

1.43

1.43 tells us that this is a handicap and to me this price is suspiciously high for an 8/5 shot in the win market.

720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dance The Star, 4/1 Factotum, 6/1 Houghton, 9/1 Laurel Creek, My Mate Max, 11/1 Pass The Port, 14/1 Look To This Day,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DANCE THE STAR (nap) is from a decent American family and his win at Kempton last week suggested he has a bright future. He can follow up at the chief expense of My Mate Max and Factotum

8 runners - 3 the place -an ideal place only situation but is the candidate strong enough - 14/1 the outsider signifies a tight race

Dance The Star Marc Halford

» £0.00

	Dance The Star Marc Halford
» £0.00, £0.00

1.25

3 the place and only 7 runners

850
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Anne Of Kiev, 5/1 Promise Of Love, 8/1 Human Touch, 10/1 Rathmolyon, 14/1 Firewalker, Slim Jim Phantom, 16/1 Socceroo, 20/1 Rightcar Dominic, 25/1 Titus Gent, 33/1 Rindless, Rosies Dawn, 100/1 Rare Old Bird, Rightcar Lewis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent chance for the capable ANNE OF KIEV, who has produced more than enough on the AW to suggest she can get the job done at this level for her thriving yard.

A place only choice previously Anne of Kiev delivered then

Anne Of Kiev Jimmy Fortune

» £0.00

1.52

Anne Of Kiev Jimmy Fortune

» £0.00, £0.00

1.06

ONE A DAY
Astarador would be a no for me today given the race type.
The Fonz and Musleh interests me today - how much of an effect will a negative draw have on Musleh?
Charm School - again this is an eye popping price gap but 1.42 does emphasise this is not a penalty kick even for the place

Despite my reservations, Charm School for me to place given the huge prtice gapo in the betting forecast. NExt best would be The Fonz ( taking a risk) but it's Charm School as my one a day

9/10

240 NEWBRY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Palavicini, 13/2 Sopranist, 8/1 Hilbre Point, Holberg, 10/1 Conclusive, 11/1 Border Patrol, 12/1 Canton Road, Lasso The Moon, 14/1 Great Western, 16/1 Bin End, 20/1 Mystic Prince, 25/1 Saborido, Zulu Moon, 28/1 Pagan Flight, 33/1 Directorship, 50/1 Sermons Mount, 66/1 Spinning Joy, 100/1 Ditzy Diva.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting newcomers in a race likely to unveil some decent prospects for next year. However, with regard to winning today PALAVICINI ought to be tough to beat if handling the slower ground, as he has already shown useful form in his two races and that previous experience has to be an advantag

Race full of debutants

350
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tactic, 7/1 Gibb River, 8/1 Decorum, Roman Republic, 12/1 Skanky Biscuit, Whisky Galore, 14/1 Advisor, Hope Junior, 16/1 Clinging Vine, Mehendi, 20/1 Bothy, Brunston, Going For Gold, 25/1 Final Victory, Lava Steps, 33/1 Eastern Warrior, 50/1 Cousin Charlie, Rowan Tiger.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of interest among the newcomers, notably Decorum and Roman Republic, but TACTIC looked a promising prospect when the penny finally dropped on his debut and he can take full advantage of the extra furlong this time

17 ruunner maiden with large number of debutants - Shanky Biscuit and Roman Republic big market movers - the latter now 13/8 and Tactic ot to 5/1 - can we trust the market with so many debtants and such a big field - I'll be leaving this one well alone!

220 WINCANTION
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Art Trend, 5/2 Nampour, 11/4 Cosmea, 8/1 Bathwick Man, 20/1 Wise Hawk, 33/1 King Bathwick, 50/1 Balata, Red Bishop, Tamrai Dancer, 100/1 Clovis, Gainsborough´s Art.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks booked for a newcomer and the market should offer some guidance as to how the schooling has been going. NAMPOUR signed off for his French connections with a career-best effort and gets the call ahead of Art Trend and Cosmea.

4 horses in it? BUT a lot of newcomers so betting forecaster is speculating
Live market makes it between 3 with Bathwick Man out to 12/1
I am taken by Ruby Walsh coming over for Mr Nichoills but is this enough for me to wade in with so many nknowns?

255
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Orchard House, 7/1 Rudivale, 8/1 Patsy Bee, 10/1 Title Deed, 14/1 Hail The King, Pure Magic, Quil Est Beau, 16/1 Bite Un Fight, Nomad, 20/1 Mistified, 25/1 Brown Fox, Fairlight Shadow, Sir Bumble, 33/1 Etendard Indien, Kourosh.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak handicap and one booked for ORCHARD HOUSE (nap) if he's in the same form as at Huntington on Sunday. Rudivale is the best alternative.

Now 5/6 the market leader - augurs well?

ONE A DAY
A very difficult day today where we must place trust in the live market as an indicator IF we are to bet.
220 WINCANTON interest from a probability perspective - 6 horses at 100/1 or bigger brings the field down to 5 to hopefully fight ot the finish.
WIN MARKET

2 Art Trend R. Walsh » £0.00	2.42
10 Cosmea Robert Thornton » £0.00	3.5
7 Nampour Richard Johnson » £0.00	4.6
1 Bathwick Man J. W. Farrelly » £0.00	16.5

PLACE MARKET

2 Art Trend R. Walsh » £0.00, £0.00	1.27
10 Cosmea Robert Thornton » £0.00, £0.00	1.37
7 Nampour Richard Johnson » £0.00, £0.00	1.56
1 Bathwick Man J. W. Farrelly » £0.00, £0.00	2.64

Difficult here - Ruby Walsh and Choc Thornton are men to be trusted on market leaders.
I will go for the LIVE MARKET LEADER here nearer the off which will capture any market movers. Probably be Walsh/Nicholl's Art Trend

9/10

Eqbaal's race was certainly a probability race - the top 4 in the market were the first 4 home, and Eqbaal got 3rd by the skin of his teeth. 1.65 I got - went off at 1.40 allowing a risk free trade if I was so inclined
So a gamble worth taking yesterday but, of course, Red Jade crised into the placings by winning for those who like life a little easier!

140 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Compton Blue, 100/30 Dunes Queen, 5/1 Club Tahiti, 9/1 Tarruji, 10/1 Freedom Fire, Hekaaya, 14/1 Winning Band, 16/1 Katie Higgins, Sakhee´s Pearl, 20/1 Al Sayed, 25/1 Dicey Affair.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On paper, this doesn't look a strong race for the track. With those to have run not having achieved very much at all, newcomers DUNES QUEEN and Compton Blue appeal most, with preference for the former, whose half-brother won first time out for this stable in a 1m 2yo maiden on this card two years ago

Money for newcomer Dunes Queen pushes it into favouratism but we can only go by the market with 6 debutants in the field

8/10

Well everything placed yesterday so it didn't really matter who I picked. Majuba was backed in from 1.20 down to 1.11 before the off allowing a free trade which would have freed up stake ( however small it is for 2% target)

320 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Gone To Lunch, 9/2 Kornati Kid, 5/1 Exmoor Ranger, 9/1 Overclear, 16/1 Dream Falcon, 20/1 Wasntme, 25/1 John Fenton, 33/1 Dont Ask Me, 66/1 Howdy Cloud, Strathtay, 200/1 Rathcannon Man.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This alone should be worth the entrance money. Gone To Lunch could go a long way over fences but his record after a break is not that good. There are alternatives and perhaps KORNATI KID can take advantage if Jeremy Scott's charge is in need of the outing Currently 11/10 with Kornati Kid shortening in the betting. 4 of the 11 are 50/1 or over Ground is good to soft, threatening to become soft and both principles are coming back from a layoff Not a race profile which would be top of my list 4 Gone To Lunch A. P. McCoy » £0.00 2.14 7 Kornati Kid Richard Johnson » £0.00 3.9 4 Gone To Lunch A. P. McCoy » £0.00, £0.00 1.32 7 Kornati Kid Richard Johnson » £0.00, £0.00 1.44 450 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Copper Bleu, 2/1 Quaddick Lake, 4/1 Phar Again, 8/1 Weather Front, 16/1 Lancer Scott, 25/1 Daring Approach, 33/1 Lustara, Thirtythreeblack, 40/1 Bob Shilling, 50/1 Sweet World, 66/1 Petroglyph, Sea Robber, 100/1 Cherryficial. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Three intriguing contenders who could go places if all falls into place this season. Copper Bleu's connections will be keen for him to justify his lofty purchase price but if QUADDICK LAKE can bounce back to his form from this time last year, he will be hard to beat. Phar Again is the other of special note.[JN] The betting forecast hints at a 4 horse race, which, from a probability perspective allows us to take a chance that, indeed, the race will be sorted out between these 4 horses - so it's simply a case of selecting the one horse from these 4 to place Novice hurdles event - is lack of general experience 3 Copper Bleu Richard Johnson » £0.00 2.42 8 Quaddick Lake Timmy Murphy » £0.00 2.98 1 Weather Front David England » £0.00 8.2 7 Phar Again Jack Doyle » £0.00 13.5 3 Copper Bleu Richard Johnson » £0.00, £0.00 1.26 8 Quaddick Lake Timmy Murphy » £0.00, £0.00 1.39 1 Weather Front David England » £0.00, £0.00 2 7 Phar Again Jack Doyle » £0.00, £0.00 2.76 140 NOTT BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Fitz Flyer, 13/2 Bees River, Joe Caster, 8/1 Rare Art, 12/1 Belated Silver, 20/1 Makaykla, Silky Way, 25/1 Dawn Wee, Iachimo, 33/1 Prima Laurea. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FITZ FLYER (nap) has the best form by some way and the drop in trip shouldn't be a problem, so connections will be deflated if he doesn't open his account here. Bees River is the next best based on racecourse achievements, though Rare Art is well regarded at home and could improve a fair bit on his debut show. Fitz flyer now a non runner 240 BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alanbrooke, 4/1 Advisor, Surrounded, 6/1 Thousand Miles, 10/1 Horsley Warrior, 16/1 Paquerettza, 25/1 Dalesway, Googoobarabajagal, 33/1 Martha´s Girl, Tinkerbelle, 40/1 Lend A Light, 50/1 Saving Grace, 66/1 Strongarm. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALANBROOKE comes from a fine family and his debut run at Sandown suggested that he will be giving them another win before long. Surrounded and Thousand Miles look easily the most interesting among the others who have run, with Advisor the most eyecatching newcomer Money for advisor and Thousand Miles - a tricky race with some debutants and also some one time out horses open to improvement in this maiden 2 (11) Alanbrooke Royston Ffrench » £0.00 2.7 1 (10) Advisor Jamie Spencer » £0.00 4.3 8 (2) Thousand Miles Richard Mullen » £0.00 4.2 2 (11) Alanbrooke Royston Ffrench » £0.00, £0.00 1.26 1 (10) Advisor Jamie Spencer » £0.00, £0.00 1.51 8 (2) Thousand Miles Richard Mullen » £0.00, £0.00 1.56 410 BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Red Jade, 9/2 Eqbaal, 7/1 Lyceana, 10/1 Scarab, 20/1 Ibbetson, 25/1 Baileys Benchmark, Blushing Heart, 33/1 Solid Silver, 50/1 Indiana Fox, 100/1 Out Of This Way, Una Auroraborealis. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On last week's evidence, this looks a great opportunity for RED JADE to get off the mark. Eqbaal is the other form horse, with the once-raced pair Lyceana and Scarab posible improvers from major stables. One time out favourite - 2nd fav is interesting as has had more experience - 6 of the 11 are 66/1 or bigger making this an interesting probability race with the remaining 5 looking to fight out for 3 places 7 (1) Red Jade Jimmy Fortune » £0.00 1.8 4 (9) Eqbaal R. Hills » £0.00 5.6 7 (1) Red Jade Jimmy Fortune » £0.00, £0.00 1.11 4 (9) Eqbaal R. Hills » £0.00, £0.00 1.65 TOWCESTER is a tricky track and I would want to see any price gapper with course form ONE A DAY I am tempted by Eqbaal from a probability perspective at a more enticing 1.65 than the 1.11 of the more obvious candidate - why not? That'll be my one selection today - the advantage is I'll not need to stake much to meet my target for the day and from a loss retreival perspective should the horse go unplaced it's not great shakes 450 EXETER - probably back the live market leader to place here -another probability race