7/10

200 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Majuba, 2/1 Fesko, 6/1 Breakevie, 15/2 Kellies Rocket, 8/1 Dean Iarracht, 18/1 Kiama Bay, 25/1 Wunder Strike, 28/1 Fifth Amendment, 33/1 Miss Thippawan, 50/1 Wee Bizzom,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAJUBA has been knocking on the door for most of the season, sets the standard on his latest nursery third off a mark of 82 and is narrowly preferred to Fesko, who has a bit to find but is open to improvement and represents a yard which won a division of this race this last year. [DM]

3 horses over 16/1 make this a potential probability bet - probably go for the live market fav to place
WIN/PLACE
Majuba 2.32/1.2
Fesko 3.1/ 1.33

330 CATT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kheleyf´s Silver, 11/2 Diamond Daisy, Titus Andronicus, 7/1 Gore Hill, Mary West, Premier Lad, 14/1 Igoyougo, 20/1 Shining Times, 33/1 Rafta, 50/1 Pennine Rose.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive maiden in which KHELEYF'S SILVER (nap) makes most appeal. The filly showed plenty of dash over this C&D when turning in a much improved effort on her second start when last seen in late August and a reproduction of that will ensure she goes very close

Market mover in Titus Andronicus ,now 3/1 - fav up in grade to class 5 from 6 where he lost by a short head
3 definite outsiders at 50/1, 100/1 and 150/1 can hopefully be discounted which redces the field to 7
WIN/PLACE

Kheleyfs Silver 3/1.37
Titus Andronicus 4.1 /1.59

Decent enough price to risk a place maybe?

450 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Haajes, 7/2 Mango Music, 5/1 The Jobber, 11/2 Regal Royale, 8/1 Chartist, 10/1 Godfrey Street.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mango Music has been in reasonable heart and is unbeaten in two starts at Folkestone, but she may not get an easy lead despite the small field and things could be set up nicely for HAAJES (nap), who is right at the top of his form.

Price gap remains in the live market, now 5/4 but we have to be spot on here as only 2 the place. Any weaknesses? - well added penalty in this handicap race and untried at the course.

WIN PLACE
2.16/1.44
The 1.44 tells you this is only 2 to place

Soft at Leicester

Short list
LIVE MARKET LEADER in 200 Catterick I think will do for me -at this stage looks like MAjuba

6/10

Panathanaikos no probs yesterday instead of the horses. Today's fare is unspectacular from palce only betting perspective
150 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Summers Target, 5/1 Albaseet, 6/1 Purissima, 15/2 All Spin, 10/1 Battle, 12/1 Quick Single, 14/1 Nemorosa, 20/1 Unbelievable Jeff, 25/1 Diapason, Tricky Trev, 33/1 Drum Dragon, Pepin, 50/1 Katie Higgins, 100/1 Bob Stock, Exopuntia, Hellbender, Princess Soraya .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A Racing Post Trophy entry looks optimistic but SUMMERS TARGET deserves another chance to get things right in maiden company and he should have the speed to cope with today's shorter trip.

17 runners - many debutants but a fav who has placed in all 3 runnings -I write this the night before and the Racing Post is saying soft which may become heavier?

And that, folks is it for the selections today! A poor day -I cannot reasonably put this horse up as a place only bet with ground, race size and race type all questionable. If there are withdrawals today then I may reconsider - as things stand it may be a no bet day for me from a place only perspective

Footy yesterday spot on again in all selections with Real Madrid only drawing meaning the treble went south (and was layed so that's what I wanted!)

5/10

Well that boy O'Brien did it again with HAlfway to Heaven but Darjina finished 2nd for my place only bet so well happy
305 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Night Cru, 15/8 Sendani, 9/2 Shore Thing, 10/1 Free World, 14/1 Ballabrook, Zed Candy, 20/1 A Perfect Gent, 33/1 Mac Halen, 50/1 Beware The Digger, 100/1 Jack London, Killfinnan Castle .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sendani has the proven hurdling form but NIGHT CRU is a potentially decent recruit off the Flat and, in this easier company, can hopefully jump better than he did on his debut.[

Today 3 jumps meetings in the Uk - I may have a peek at Ireland but certainly novice hurdles, by their nature are full of inexperienced early season jumpers -tha above race culd be a possible probability bet with so many perceived outsiders and perhaps the live market fav near the off to place - BUT I am clutching at straws thus far

410
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 I´msingingtheblues, 7/2 Ocean Du Moulin, 5/1 Brize Norton, 13/2 Berings Express, 9/1 Mistanoora, 12/1 Learning The Blues, 14/1 Dream Garden, 66/1 Supreme Leisure, 80/1 Fifth Column, 100/1 Abzuson, One To Note .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES will be tough to beat if able to show anything like his good hurdles form over fences on this chase debut and, sure to have been well prepared by the champion trainer, appeals most. Former stablemate Ocean Du Moulin may be next best.

Big jumps boys showing their cards - Mr Nicholls on the fav with trusted Sam Thomas must be respected but 2 miles 5 furlongs is a long distance for such a short place only price - again 4 perceived outsiders can hopefully be discounted

235 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Connie Mac, 5/1 Faseela, Spring Horizon, 10/1 Ice Attack, Smartest, 16/1 Billys Dream, Soto Loti, 20/1 L´Amour Toujours, 25/1 Luckydolly, Shes Diman, Tesir, 33/1 Sudest Rose.

Ireland really is a graveyard for odds on shots but in this maiden at least the fav is fit, fancied and in form

HEavy at Tipperary

Today , for place back players, may be a day to employ bet ex profits type betting - ie taking your cues from the live market on BEtfair and backing qualifying steamers to place - you see the problem I have backing novice hurdlers - read Spotlight in the first race " hopefully" jumps better than he did before.

A no bet day today and I may look to the football to get my 2% er - 4 out of 4 yesterday - the evens treble I decided to lay rather than back as the author suggests and Bayern at 2/7 only managed a draw so that was job done - over 2.5 goals in the Reading match came in, under 2.5 goals in the Arse match and Celtic half time/full time

The 3 singles at short prices all obliged -so check out the blog at http://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/
The 2 lay the draws also obliged making for a very profitable footy day - more today please although the Premiership matches are toughies today

545 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Megasue, 4/1 Cry Alot Boy, 12/1 Elusive Role, 14/1 Gilwen Glory, 16/1 King Ozzy, Missie Geore, 25/1 Hosanna Rock, 33/1 All About Jack, Hot Choc, 40/1 Madame Helga, 100/1 Grange Girl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless there is a surprise package among the newcomers, MEGASUE should be able to maintain her unbeaten record.[JN] 1.59/1.11

315 NMKT

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Darjina, 11/2 Listen, 6/1 Halfway To Heaven, Nahoodh, 8/1 Heaven Sent, 10/1 Spacious, 12/1 Visit, 33/1 Harvest Queen, 40/1 Eva´s Request, 50/1 Barshiba, Festoso.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Provided there hasn't been a major change in the ground by post time Saturday, DARJINA (nap) ought to be very hard to beat. She has been unlucky to keep finding one too good in all five races this season and, pitched into a slightly lesser-contested Group 1 this time, has strong prospects of putting things right. Nahoodh may be next best

2.62 win/1.35 place

Nice 1.71 place yesterday -I'll go with Darjina today -a string of 2nd places augurs well

3/10

Well a 2nd place for my single selection yesterday was welcoming at 1.48 ( relatively big for place only betting) -Wingwalker was keen to post and I'm glad I swerved that one

215 HEX
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Hawksbury Heights, 4/1 Nevsky Bridge, 5/1 Overnight, 8/1 Sorrento Moon, 10/1 Spivitus, 14/1 Delta Lady, Moyne Pleasure, 16/1 Lindseyfield Lodge, 20/1 Bramantino, 25/1 Mistral De La Cour, Skye But N Ben, 33/1 Amjad, Miss Champagne.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hawksbury Heights will be popular following his Sedgefield win but NEVSKY BRIDGE looks a real danger getting so much weight.[AWJ]

With Oversight out, Nevsky Bridge could be a good place only selection swerving the fav

325

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 On Raglan Road, 4/1 Moygashel, Peters Star, 14/1 Depraux, 33/1 Dukesfield, 100/1 Gino, Pressman, 200/1 Saddlers Singer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Peters Star now fairly well exposed this should not take a great deal of winning and looks an ideal starting point for ON RAGLAN ROAD, who changed hands for big bucks after winning both his starts in Ireland

Obvious fav here - plenty of outsiders

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 30/100 Uvinza, 6/1 It´s Dubai Dolly, 10/1 Regal Wave, 12/1 Young Dottie, 25/1 Caressing, 50/1 Diktalina, 66/1 Deckchair, Fleur De´Lion, Kutanga, Miss Jabba, Nesayem, The Saucy Snipe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: For all that she is drawn wide, UVINZA has plenty in hand on form and is very hard to oppose. It's Dubai Dolly looks clear second best on form.[GN]

Obvious but then it's a 2 year old maiden fillies race

ONE A DAY _ Nevsky Bridge today - not obvious but he could be competitive receiving so much weight 4.8 / 1.7 win/place

2/10

Onto today

255 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Scenic Pass, 9/4 Doric Echo, 11/2 Artesium, 9/1 Acclaben, 10/1 Identity, 12/1 Scarlets, 20/1 Drachenfels, 25/1 Peckforton, 50/1 Danderdandan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Scenic Pass was just picked off in her attempt to complete a hat-trick last time and should make a bold bid to give her trainer a repeat success in this race, but may not be able to confirm latest Hamilton form with DORIC ECHO, who stayed on strongly from an unpromising position in the gruelling ground that day

Possible probability bet today here - 2 non runners thanks to the heavy ground but these are 2 year olds in a nursery - YIKES! 2.56 1.24 win/place

330
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Box Office, 2/1 Liberty Diamond, 9/4 The Kyllachy Kid, 10/1 Aestival, 14/1 Zegna, 33/1 Top Flight Splash, 66/1 Grissom.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOX OFFICE ran very green on his debut and may be able to find the improvement needed to progress past The Kyllachy Kid and Liberty Diamond. Sir Mark Prescott had a 66-1 winner at Wolverhampton last Friday, who had shown little on his debut, so it might be unwise to rule out a big run from Aestival.

Another probability bet here 6 runenrs now - 2 to palce and 1 outsider
BOX OFFICE 3.2 /2
KYLLACHY KID 2.72 /1.56
LIBERTY DIAMOND 5.5 /2.5

Uncompetitive place market - money really isnt making the market work yet so the above prices are cheeky backers putting up unrealistic prices

430 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Timocracy, 9/2 Pediment, 8/1 Air Chief, 17/2 Hawk Flight, 9/1 Colourways, Drum Major, Flying Applause, Sinbad The Sailor, 14/1 Mon Plaisir, 25/1 Hawaana.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIMOCRACY's latest second in a Folkestone handicap entitles him to go very well here, especially as his profile suggests he may well come on again. Provided the forecast faster ground doesn't prove a problem, he may well be able to pick up the winning thread again, possibly at the main expense of Sinbad The Sailor.

Other potential price gappers prior to this race at Goodwood but they dont appeal for me 2.8/1.42

3rd fav Air chief a non runner lessens potential rivals - fav has been placed last 3 times -is this affecting his weight carried in this handicap? Positives - Mark Johnston and Fanning are a reliable combination to have on your side

850 GT LEIGHS

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hula King, 3/1 Free Thinker, 9/2 Alpha Tauri, 7/1 Causeway King, 8/1 Sham Sheer, 10/1 Noordhoek Kid, 20/1 Gtaab, 25/1 Veiled, 33/1 Cooper Island Kid. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hula King will be popular given his connections but FREE THINKER's credentials are just as good and he may well represent better value. Alpha Tauri and Sham Sheer are interesting newcomers about whom the market will tell more Alpha Tauri now evens and quite a move - but race doesnt go off til near enough 9pm! Worth monitoring but this is a maiden with a few debutants 1.96 / 1.24 BUT ILLIQUID MARKET AS HOURS TO GO TO KICK OFF 200 NMKT BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Alhaque, 8/1 Above Average, Jedi, Prohibition, 10/1 Roman Glory, Shemoli, 14/1 Aspro Mavro, Favours Brave, Strong Storm, 16/1 Kansai Spirit, Redwood, 20/1 Double Rubble, Ruler Of All, 25/1 Galucci, 33/1 Captain Flack, 50/1 Play To Win, Supa Seeker, SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of interesting long-term prospects, but ALHAQUE is likely to be wiser than most following his encouraging debut second to North East Corner (runs 3.45) here last month and this step up in trip will suit so is the one to beat. A real eyecatcher here! Quite a price gap. BUT 18 runner maiden and 10 debtants - again how on earth do we know how they will run? fav based on one run only , live market is required reading to note market movers but the price gap still remains though! 2.72 / 1.48 310 BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Savarain, 11/4 The Betchworth Kid, 5/1 Fiulin, 7/1 Resplendent Light, 16/1 Silk Affair, 25/1 Syvilla, 33/1 Lough Diver. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Different conditions to when The Betchworth Kid won so well at Doncaster and preference is for SAVARAIN, who has run so well in defeat at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood and should have no problem with today's longer trip. One non runner and 2 outsiders mean a possible probability bet with only 4 horses likely to vye for the first 2 places 2.14 / 1.55 345 BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Wingwalker, 6/1 Desert Phantom, 7/1 Control Zone, Derbaas, 8/1 North East Corner, 20/1 Ashram, 25/1 Akhenaten, 33/1 Dabbers Chief, 66/1 Prime Delivery. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Four unbeaten colts in opposition but the exciting WINGWALKER is expected to take this step up Group 3 company in his stride. He quickened up smartly once the gap came at Sandown and a line through runner-up Rileyskeepingfaith suggests he should have the measure of Desert Phantom.[ 2 non runners -one is the 2nbd fav should make life easier for fav to place - 2 horses at 40/1 make life easier from a place only perspective 1.64 / 1.18 COMPOUNDING Start with a nominal £1000 bank and look to win 3/4% per day (3 quarters%) DAY 1 Target £7.50 STAKE £158 SUCCESS OR 2% compounding with a £100 bank DAY 1 Target £2 STAKE £43 at 1.05 SUCCESS If using Graycliffe - note palce back odds went out to 3.4 so I didn't bet but hypothetically at the 1.97 mentioned previously DAY 1 Target =£7.50 STAKES £8.20 LOSS DAY 1 Target = £2 STAKES £2.20 LOSS BET 2 LOSS RETREIVAL on STEVIE JUNIOR at 1.13 DAY 1 Target = £7.50 +£8.20 = £15.70 STAKES £128 SUCCESS DAY 1 Target = £2 + £2.20 = £4.20 STAKES £33 SUCCESS This is how the compounding experiement would have looked yesterday if Graycliffe was used at odds mentioned (despite the fact those odds went out to 3.4 and he would not have been a selection)

SHORTLIST
WINGWALKER - 1.18
ALHAQUE 1.48 - I only include here cos the price is big relative to the above and the price gap is noticeable
KYLLACHY KID -1.56 OR MARKET LEADER IN BOOKMAKERS MARKET PRIOR TO RACE - purely a probability bet and , again, the odds are very enticing

COMPOUNDING
bank £1007.50 (£1000 bank at 3/4% per day)
bank £102 (£100 bank at 2% per day)

TARGET PROFIT TODAY £7.56
TARGET PROFIT TODAY 2% £100 BANK £2.04
Yes I've had a knock on the head, and despite MAster Rooney and Imaam unplaced, I'll wade in with Alhaque at 1.48 -but would probably go with Wingwalker if being strict

DAY 2 Target £7.56 STAKE £15.80 @ 1.48
OR 2% compounding with a £100 bank
DAY 2 Target £2.04 STAKE £4.30 at 1.48

1/10

Well the fav in the 330 I took to be Wildback and he placed - fav in other race unplaced - but employing loss retreival with the compounding worked for a 1.57 shot in the 2nd race

I will start a compounding log out of interest here as its the 1st October starting with £100
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Stevie Junior, 4/1 Aathaar, 11/2 Silver Print, 13/2 First Queen, 10/1 Bright Enough, 12/1 Fisher Hill, Rockfella, 20/1 Flashgun, In Transit.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond the unexposed STEVIE JUNIOR, who impressed when opening his account at Wolverhampton and ought to possess the quality to carry top weight to success at this level

Now 8/11 so positive but a nursery on the all weather does not make my heart leap!
And we have some 7 hourse to the off but initial signs are positive - 1.75 win 1.13 place

210 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Yorksters Girl, 6/1 Hector´s House, What A Day, 8/1 Denton Diva, 14/1 Longboat Key, 16/1 Hawkleaf Flier, 20/1 Allformary, Liberty Estelle, 25/1 Asserting, Mythical Thrill, 33/1 High Tensile, Markadam, Our Apolonia, 66/1 Cavitie, Transporter, 100/1 Le Petit Vigier.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for YORKSTERS GIRL, who handles soft ground and stays this trip, to get off the mark. Hector's House may be the one to give her most to do.

Heavy ground a concern with this big field maiden but we are told the market leader handles soft ground. May be a place only play if there are some late withdrawals due to ground? 1.93 win 1.20 place

310
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prime Mood, 7/1 Count Almaviva, York Key Bar, 10/1 Chambers, Mister Tinktastic, Mohawk Ridge, Starla Dancer, 14/1 Dreamonandon, Embsay Crag, Speed Dating, 20/1 Northern Flyer, 33/1 Gibson Square, 66/1 Bun Penny, Lady Zena, 100/1 Freddie Bolt.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRIME MOOD has had a few chances but he looks a better performer in testing ground and has a fine opportunity of getting off the mark under suitable conditions. Count Almaviva and Mohawk Ridge may be best of the remainder

Another price gapper we are told handles soft ground 2.34 1.28 win/place

345
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Montaff, 7/2 Alanbrooke, 10/1 Graycliffe, Hard Luck Story, Royal Trooper, 14/1 Akmal, 20/1 Haulage Lady, Penolva, 25/1 Radegund Abbey, 33/1 Elevate Bambina, 66/1 Amba.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth. MONTAFF (nap) shaped with a good deal of promise on soft ground on his debut and is taken to beat Alanbrooke, who is also entitled to come on for his debut experience.

6 horses left contesting this with Montaff amongst the survivors - a great probability place only bet with 3 the place on BEtfair (need to confirm though) 1.65/1.05 win /place ( 3 to place)

220 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fitz Flyer, 5/1 Master Lightfoot, 7/1 Enderby Spirit, 10/1 Boho Chic, Perfect Class, 12/1 Ben´s Dream, 14/1 Art Fund, 16/1 Esprit De Midas, 33/1 Dynamo Dane, 50/1 Arachnophobia, 66/1 Celtic Rebel, 100/1 Bulella, Excitable, Wicklewood.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A reproduction of any of FITZ FLYER (nap)'s four efforts could well be good enough and there appears nothing of the calibre of Master Noverre, Weatherstaff, Elnawin or Bonnie Charlie to worry about this time

5 furlong 2 year old maiden -noticeable price gapper - just noticed he's a non runner - oh well

355
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Damini, 9/2 My Chestnut Girl, 6/1 Sampi, 8/1 Lonely Star, 10/1 Charlotte Point, Paquerettza, 14/1 Spirit Of Dubai, 16/1 Welsh Anthem, 20/1 Penzena, 25/1 New Beginning, Tricky Situation, 40/1 Good Queen Best, 50/1 Astrobrava, 66/1 Baby Is Here.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: More than half the field have yet to race and another event in which the betting should add some important clues. DAMINI has experience on her side, can improve again with the step up to 1m and may be equal to the task. My Chestnut Girl is of obvious interest among the newcomers.

Another maiden fillies event -not solid for me 2.3 / 1.34 win/place

425
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Otaared, 4/1 Act Of Diplomacy, 8/1 Red Jade, 12/1 Planetary Motion, Taqdeyr, 16/1 Cara´s Request, Danse The Blues, Lease Of Life, 20/1 Qeyaada, Quick Off The Mark, 25/1 Antillia, 33/1 Top Tribute, 50/1 Kiss Me Hardy, 100/1 Alyseve, Golondrina, Miss Medusa,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OTAARED only ran once last summer and has been off since the Craven Meeting, so all has clearly not gone to plan, but that comeback second to Virtual has worked out plenty well enough among the principals. Mega-pricey Act Of Diplomacy has it to prove after Kempton.

Big field - Acto of Diplomacy shortened up -7 horses at 33/1 or bigger - can we dismiss these?
2.94/1.46 win /place - watch out for Actof Diplomacy - Frankie on board

ONE A DAY
Obvious candidate in Montaff with a redced field still paying out for the first 3 BUT heavy ground too - still only has 3 to beat to place

COMPOUNDING
Start with a nominal £1000 bank and look to win 3/4% per day (3 quarters%)
DAY 1 Target £7.50 STAKE £158
OR 2% compounding with a £100 bank
DAY 1 Target £2 STAKE £43 at 1.05

Heavy ground is the concern with the above so I'm just playing the probabilities here with 6 running and 3 placed
Looking below - could we not speculate on one horse in the field to finish placed instead of this bad priced fav

5 (6) Montaff Edward Creighton » £0.00, £0.00	1.05
4 (11) Hard Luck Story Tony Hamilton » £0.00, £0.00	1.71
1 (7) Akmal Martin Dwyer » £0.00, £0.00	2.12
3 (3) Graycliffe Paul Hanagan » £0.00, £0.00	1.98
7 (5) Royal Trooper Robert Winston » £0.00, £0.00	2.52
6 (9) Radegund Abbey Tom Eaves » £0.00, £0.00	4.8

Perhaps Graycliffe whose price seems out of kilter at this stage at 1.98 to place instead of the 1.05 seemingly sure thing - £8.10 to win £7.50 and £2.20 to win £2

I will take a risk today with this one purely based on the hope he can beat 3 others and get in the first 3 Ragelund abbey looks out of it (hopefully) Using loss retrieval,stakes are not worth worrying about BUT with Montaff, trying to retrieve £158 in the place market is a concern!

Stevie Junior also interests today, and the others I will put a line through given race type and ground