Tuesday 31 May 2011

31/5

So, faith in Murray the that ankle after a night off? If so, then 1.37 is a nice price for world number 4 winning the last 2 sets. Alternatively, Turkey under 19 are 1.16 with ladbrokes and are 1.24 with Betfair. Take advantage of the Betfair price as the bookies expect an easier ride for Turkey's nippers.
jack's Revenge has all sorts of contraptions on which admittedly did the trick last time. 5/4 - - - 6/1 and the best price gapper of the day.

Decisions , decisions , decisions.

*****ONE A DAY - FRENCH OPEN 2pm- MURRAY V TROIKI - Back Murray in the match odds at 1.37****** The hope here is that the momentum of the last 2 sets ( won 12 games, conceded 5) comes to play after a day of rest . World Number 4 back on track and posting set results that we would have expected. The rest will hopefully help the ankle.


Derry won as they liked and were safer than another day of jumps after the last fence exit of Fashionable Gal when all out the winner. I needn't have worried as Executive's Hall won, and The Strawberry One and There and Then both placed.

3pm - Germany U19 v Hungary U19 - 1.23 home

HEAD TO HEADS

20.07.2008U19Hungary U191-2Germany U19
14.05.2007U19Hungary U190-0Germany U19

No recent head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - not relevant.

HOME TEAM - GERMANY U 19

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWWWWDDLW - only 1 win in last 4.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLWWWWDDWLW -recent loss was against Belgium, 2-1 when Germans scored first.

GOAL TRENDS - no general stats available but 10 of last 12 matches at home have been over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 3 without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - HUNGARY

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDLDWW - Both wins recently against the Finland u19. Some of these matches from 2009 and none from 2010

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWLLWWLDWW - only one draw in last 12

GOAL TRENDS - 3 of the last 4 away matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 3 without a loss away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no real collateral form makes this a difficult match to decipher. Has a chance of over 2,5 goals based solely on very recent matches.



HEAD TO HEADS - none

LEAGUE POSITION - irrelevant

HOME TEAM -TURKEY

RECENT HOME FORM- WWDWLWWLWLWD - recent losses at home to Italy, Poland and Spain

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWLWWLDWWLWD - in these matches, Turkey have played Poland in consecutive games, and Montenegro latest in consecutive games.

GOAL TRENDS - 10 of the last 12 matches overall have been over 2.5 goals -the others featured 2 goals each. 9/12 at home over 2.5 goals including last 5.

STREAKS - 2 at home without a loss

AWAY TEAM - MACEDONIA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLDLLL - recent win against Czechs and draw against Bosnia

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLDLLDLLWDLL - recent win at home 4-0 v Romania.

GOAL TRENDS - consistent concession rate - 2,3,3,3,5,3,0,3,1,2,3,3 away and a 1.25 shot should be able to replicate that

STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 3 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no collateral form so hard to gauge the strength of the teams Macedonia are losing to. consistently conceding 2,3 or more , and a 1.25 side at home could continue that?


TENNIS - 215pm -
Monfils v Federer - 1.16 Federer - Fed could be worth laying initially as Monfils is a French player at the French Open.
2pm -

A Murray v Troicki - 1.37 Murray - this was a superb enhanced bet with Murray losing the first 2 sets. Yes

is injured hence the quite generous odds for someone in the top 5. One set match now and Murray has won 6-3, 6-2 last 2 sets. Surely momentum is with him

535 BALLINROBE

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sublime Talent, 11/4 Laganbank, 9/2 Fairwood Massini, 10/1 Groody Hill, 10/1 Mr Shahady, 12/1 Nomansland, 20/1 Dabeina, 20/1 Knockshe Heather, 20/1 Micks, 25/1 Asymmetrical, 25/1 Cloghogue Lass, 25/1 Glass Lough, 25/1 Johnnycarpethead, 33/1 Cinderella Story, 33/1 Sulki Rose.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUBLIME TALENT (nap) was clear of the remainder when third behind two useful sorts at Fairyhouse in January and a reproduction of that form should be good enough on this more suitable ground. Laganbank andFairwood Massini look next best. [Alan Hewison]

Weld on the flat is dominant, and here he is with the fav in a maiden hurdle. Paul Carberry onboard.

840 BALLINROBE

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Robin Angevin, 6/1 Kasszec, 7/1 Nashville Swing, 10/1 Fabius Maximus, 12/1 Roxborough, 12/1 Subtle Leader, 16/1 Oscar Wings, 16/1 The Parish Padre, 20/1 Sids Choice, 25/1 Daunting Task, 25/1 Farganstown Lad, 25/1 Old Supporter, 33/1 Temple Castle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROBIN ANGEVIN, by the standards of his yard's bumper horses, would need to be no star to win this on debut. Those with form seem moderate in the main. [Johnny Ward]

Price gapper but debutant in a late night irish bumper where the market is king.

345 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Jack´s Revenge, 9/2 Lady Barastar, 6/1 Iron Green, 12/1 Divine Rule, 12/1 Hello Tomorrow, 14/1 Gud Day, 16/1 Disturbia, 16/1 Emmeline Pankhurst, 25/1 Comrade Bond, 40/1 Tegan, 50/1 Caledonia Prince.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jack's Revenge scored by 15l last week and has to be the one to beat under his penalty but there might be some value in opposing him on this slower ground with LADY BARASTAR who looks sure to improve for this step up in trip. Iron Green is the other one with strrong claims to be in the money, but three of the others are making their handicap debuts.[Richard Austen]

Class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper now 11/10 - - - -- 6/1 currently in the betting.15 length winner last time and up 5 lbs here.

550 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mabroor, 2/1 Wise Venture, 4/1 Monnoyer, 5/1 Red Hearts, 25/1 Singspiel Spirit, 50/1 Fen Flyer, 50/1 Selbaar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Monnoyer and Red Hearts will be no pushover but they face two unbeaten colts who are likely to be plying their trade at a higher level in the coming months in the shape of MABROOR and Wise Venture, both of whom made a winning debut in races which are working out well.[Frank Carter]

Mabroor represents Mark Johnston and I always like these when they are market leaders. This should be a 4 horse race ( 4 under 14/1) for 2 places so effectively a 50/50 chance of placing.

655 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Whey Sauce, 5/1 Albaasil, 6/1 Burj Hatta, 6/1 Polperro, 10/1 Patriotic, 14/1 Myboyalfie, 16/1Height Of Summer, 16/1 Jumeira Field, 20/1 Makheelah, 25/1 Fluctuation, 25/1 Media Hype, 25/1 Norcroft Jem, 66/1 Centre Stage, 66/1 Handel´s Messiah.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Whey Sauce is having her first run in maiden company and if she can reproduce her Musidora performance, she would have to go close. ALBAASIL could be the type to improve considerably this summer though and he is taken to make a winning return to action.[Paul Smith]

Yes, it's off at 655 so ideally need to see the market around then but 4 under 20/1 currently and 3 are around 3/1. The mover is burj Hatta.

900 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Shouda, 4/1 Cane Cat, 5/1 Spirit Of Love, 8/1 Moment Of Clarity, 10/1 Tt´s Dream, 12/1Chantilly Dancer, 12/1 Escardo, 16/1 Art Scholar, 33/1 Cragganmore Creek, 66/1 Carlcol Girl, 66/1 Lady Freda.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHOUDA has shown enough promise to think he could win races and he has been found a very ordinary contest here. The hat-trick chasing Cane Cat could prove the main danger.[Paul Smith]

Curley favourite here so market important.


SHORTLIST

6pm - Turkey U19 v FYR Macedonia U19 - 1.25 home - my hope for Turkey will hinge on whether Macedonia can continue their woeful recent concession rate, 2s and 3s abound.

FRENCH OPEN - 2pm - A Murray v Troicki - 1.37 Murray - Momentum is surely with Murray now he has won the

last 2 sets 6-3 and 6-2 He has had a night to rest and get treatment for the ankle injury. Troiki looks like

a rabbit in the spotlight now

840 BALLINROBE - Mullins and Katie Walsh on Robin Angevin worth a speculative punt ( and it is speculative

as we have to wait nearer the off, in an irish bumper where the betting market will tell all.

345 LEICESTER - Jack's Revenge is 5/4 - - - - 6/1 price gapper and expected to replicate performance

of last time out - 1.3 to place.

550 YARMOUTH - probability race with 4 under 25/1 and 3 under 11/1 - trust the market leader here Mabroor?


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

FRENCH OPEN - 2pm - A Murray v Troicki - 1.37 Murray - which Murray turns up today? The rest period has quashed the

momentum Murray had but if the night's rest cures the ankle, then this is his match at good odds.

6pm - Turkey U19 v FYR Macedonia U19 - 1.25 home - in such a poor day we may have to venture to these under 19's - always a slight risk as there is no collateral form.

345 LEICESTER - Jack's REvenge is the best price gapper of the day. Concerns? Class 6 0-65 - poor animals. Also we have a claimer on today who negates some of the rise in the handicap. Illiquid betting market at present.Around 1.3 to place.





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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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Monday 30 May 2011

30/5

Jumps concerns shown yesterday by Fashionable Gal within sight of the line . I see 2 strong jumps races today . Executive Hall looks good to place and is the best price gapper of the day. Around 1.25 to place is a great price. A clear round assumed of course. The 400 Towcester is an IDEAL place only race. 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 20/1 . The Strawberry One is obvious but then that is reflected in the price. Dare I risk There and Then to place at a nice 1.45 or thereabouts? Concern he was beaten 102 lengths in his first 2 hurdles races. He won last time at 25/1 ( not expected and may be anomolous)
alternatively, the only obstacle in the football is the fact it comes from the Irish League. On all known form to date, Derry should win easily at home against a Galway side who have not scored in 3 of their last 4 away matches. Derry have conceded only 3 in their limited home matches so far, and are playing a Galway side who have only scored 6 away and conceded 17 away.
Of course, Derry cannot fall at the final fence a la Fashionable Gal which makes them of some appeal after a hurdles mishap.

*****745pm - DERRY V GALWAY - BACK DERRY IN THE MATCH ODDS AT AROUND 1.21*****
If 1-0 for a concerted period, consider trading. I hope I do not rue a venture into Irish Football which is not the best quality.


fashionable Gal fell at the last, such bad luck. The horse would have placed with ease and touched a low of 1.04 in running.

1230pm - Tanjong Pagar v Tampines Rovers - 1.13 away

HEAD TO HEADS

Thu10/03/11S.LTampines Rovers4 - 1Tanjong PagarView eventsMore info
Wed04/08/04S.LTampines Rovers1 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Only one recent and relevant head to head saw a win for tampines which is in line with today's 1.13 quote.

LEAGUE POSITION - 11th ( of 12) v 2nd -tampines have 2 games in hand over top team Home United - a win today takes them top.

HOME TEAM - TANJONG

RECENT HOME FORM - LDLLD - Tanjong did not score in 4 of those 5 and a shock 2-2 home draw with S.A.F. last time saw armed Forces a similar price to Tampines today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLDLLLDLLLLDWL - 1-0 win recently was against the hopeless Woodlands Wellington.

GOAL TRENDS -Score an average of 0.33 and concede an average of 2.33 at home. Have failed to score in the first half hour all season.

STREAKS - difficult to find streaks for Tanjong as www.futbol24.com is showing Tampines v Woodlands today, where soccerway and Betfair have Tanjong at home to Tampines.

AWAY TEAM - TAMPINES

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWWWWDWWWWWL - recent loss against Hougang was a shock and saw Tampines a man down give away a penalty to make it 2-0. So a slight degree of caution today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWDWWWWWDWL - very consistent -last 4 draws have all been 1-1's.

GOAL TRENDS - 1.43 scored, 0.71 conceded away.

STREAKS - 3 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - an interesting match as Tanjong held Singapore armed forces 2-2 last time out when S.A.F were priced at around the same as Tampines today. Tampines themselves lost to Hougang recently 2-0 when , again, priced similarly to today. Which Tampines and which Tanjong will turn up today?


530pm - Netherlands U21 v Albania U21 - 1.17 home - I cannot find anywhere for stats into these 2 today so logic dictates that the Dutch are a far superior footballing nation than the Albanians. Not ideal research!


745pm - Derry v Galway Utd - 1.23 home

HEAD TO HEADS

15.04.2011PRGalway United1-4Derry City
13.04.2010LCDerry City3-2Galway United
13.02.2010CFDerry City2-1Galway United
16.10.2009PRGalway United3-1Derry City
01.09.2009PRDerry City1-3Galway United
28.05.2009PRGalway United0-3Derry City

Goals on the cards, although with Galway having only accumulated 5 points, scoring only 8 in 15 matches, can they be relied upon to help an over 2.5 goals bet by scoring?

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 10th of 10 , and we know in small leagues that stats can be skewed by dint of the fact these teams meet regularly.

HOME TEAM - DERRY

RECENT HOME FORM - LDWDWWD - only one loss at home was a 1-0 to 2nd place. Beat 2nd and 3rd from bottom 2-0 and 7-0.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDDWWWDWLWWDL - 2 of the losses away, one at home.

GOAL TRENDS - having scored 13, and conceded only 3, over 2.5 goals is 14% - talk about a standout stat. Have kept clean sheets in 57% of home matches, albeit that's only 7 matches. Last 3 matches under 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 6 at home without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - GALWAY

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLLL - shocking form. Galway haven't scored in 3 of their last 4 matches away and conceded 2,5,3,3 in their last 4 away .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDWLDLLLLLLLLL - nose diving at present after a glimmer in 4 matches with 2 draws and a win.

GOAL TRENDS - scored 6 away and conceded 17 away. 57% over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 11 overall.4 away losing streak, 9 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Galway look opposable all ends up. Despite the poor overs stat for Derry which indicates a tight match, I feel they could score 2 or 3 on their own and help over 2.5 goals. Look perhaps for a correct score 3-0,3-1, 4-0

700pm BALLINROBE

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Malayan Mist, 11/10 Deire Na Sli, 8/1 Crystal Belle, 16/1 Jubilant Times, 50/1 Stigh Collain, 66/1 Draoicht, 100/1 Favourite Dancer, 100/1 Miss Fantastick, 100/1 Style Majic.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: For all intents and purposes, this is a match. MALAYAN MIST is a promising filly and while the experienced Deire Na Sli will be a strong test for her at this early stage of her career, she is selected to pass this particular exam. [Kevin Blake]

3 under 14/1 and 4 under 25/1 for this maiden sees Bolger/Manning and Weld/Smullen dominate.

550 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Epernay, 11/2 Prince Rhyddarch, 11/2 Strike A Deal, 8/1 Hits Only Jude, 12/1 Sinatramania, 16/1 Colamandis, 20/1 Ninth House, 20/1 Rub Of The Relic, 25/1 Gypsy Style, 25/1 Kathlatino, 33/1 Fifty Moore, 33/1 Hettie Hubble.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Strike A Deal is on a feasible mark and should be suited by this test while Prince Rhyddarchis also expected to go well. However, it's hard to get away from EPERNAY (nap), who competes off the same mark as when winning here last week.[Chris Wilson]

PRice gapper in a poor class 6 handicap but now odds on.

505 CARTMEL

Long Handicap: Patrixtoo 9-12, Santo Subito 9-9, Brandy And Pep 9-2

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Executive´s Hall, 7/1 Bubbly Breeze, 8/1 Danny John Boy, 8/1 Winter Alchemy, 14/1 Funky Munky, 14/1 Tomzatackman, 14/1 Via Archimede, 25/1 Brandy And Pep, 25/1 Patrixtoo, 25/1 Quo Vista, 40/1 Santo Subito, 40/1 Tipsy Dara.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bubbly Breeze is fancied to go quite well after running creditably on ground that may have been too lively for him last time but EXECUTIVE'S HALL (nap) has clearly benefited from the switch to Ben Haslam's stable and his 7lb penalty won't stop him if he repeats his recent Hexham display.[Chris Wilson]

Big price gapper in this handicap hurdle, and like Fashionable Gal, has to actually finish for us to collect.

235 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Soap Wars, 6/1 Alfresco, 6/1 Mymumsaysimthebest, 7/1 Silver Wind, 7/1 Stevie Gee, 14/1Another Try, 16/1 Brandywell Boy, 16/1 Qadar, 20/1 Barons Spy, 20/1 Even Bolder, 40/1 Billion Dollar Kid.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SOAP WARS (nap) looks the one to beat after last week's smooth win at Windsor, withMymumsaysimthebest, Silver Wind and last winner's Alfresco the chief dangers.[Richard Austen]

Price gapper in another class 6 0-60 handicap.

205 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Burwaaz, 2/1 Costa Del Fortune, 9/1 Reina Sofia, 14/1 Fairy Moss, 16/1 No More Shoes, 33/1 Sophar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is not easy to compare the form of the principals but the signs are the maiden in whichBURWAAZ was touched off at Nottingham was a better race than the one in which Costa Del Fortune was a disappointing favourite on her debut. The latter is likely to make the greater improvement for the experience but is perhaps less certain to benefit from the drop in distance.[Frank Carter]

2 under 14/1 here could dominate this 2 year old maiden.

335 REDCAR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Next Edition, 13/8 Well Sharp, 5/2 Labore.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WELL SHARP is the choice in a knotty little puzzle in which the fitness of Next Edition and the well-being and stamina of Labore have to be taken on trust.[Paul Johnson]

An apt title " feeling lucky" handicap - 3 horses and 2 places - simple probability. Default to market leader? Next edition?

250 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Chrysander, 7/1 Danny Zuko, 7/1 Le Corvee, 15/2 Leopard Hills, 12/1 Penyfan Dawn, 16/1Fisberry, 33/1 Kai Li, 100/1 Simiola.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHRYSANDER, with at least 9lb in hand on official handicap ratings, has an obvious chance to maintain his fine record in claiming hurdles. Le Corvee may be the one for the forecast.[Frank Carter]

Claiming Hurdle and Chrysander is odds on. 8 runners and 3 places and 3 horses over 25/1 leaves 5 horses for 3 places. As ever, a la Fashionable Gal, a clear round is assumed.

400 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 The Strawberry One, 2/1 There And Then, 8/1 Exiles Return, 8/1 First Smash, 20/1 Big Ed, 20/1 Halucha, 25/1 Watchmetail, 33/1 Lennie Briscoe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably best to concentrate on There And Then and THE STRAWBERRY ONE. Using Varkala as a yardstick the former deserves preference but The Strawberry One appeared to improve last time and looks the one to beat.[Frank Carter]

Another ideal race, 8 runners , 3 places and 4 under 20/1.The strawberry one is now 4/7

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Tanjong Pagar v Tampines Rovers - 1.13 away - recent aberrations involving both sides and short prices lead us to tread cautiously but the 1.13 today reflects the 4-1 when they last met.

745pm - Derry v Galway Utd - 1.23 home - GAlway did the double in 2009 but Derry have won the last 3 and should win again on current form and at home. 1.16 over 1.5 goals is reasonable here but may rely on Derry scoring 2 rather than any contribution from a GAlway side who have failed to score in 3 of their last 4.

700 BALLINROBE - I would opt for the Weld/Smullen Malayan Mist here to place, but cannot recount the place only odds as the race is off at 7pm.

550 CARLISLE - Epernay appeals here to place in a race where only 3 of the 12 runners are under 14/1 , 4 are under 20/1

Illiquid place only market at present but should be around 1.18.

505 CARTMEL - Exective's Hall "He holds an entry at Cartmel on Monday and will take plenty of stopping if turning up in the same mood." so said the analyst of the last race, If that is the case then a place only bet should come in. Of coruse, as with fashionable gal, we do not get paid if they clear all fences bar the last. Around 1.26 to place .

205 LEICESTER - burwaaz is 1.1 to place ( 1.46 to win) and Costa del fortune, the only other horse under 14/1, is a value 1.73 to place. Will the front 2 dominate this 2 year old maiden?

335 REDCAR - 3 horses and 2 places on Betfair. Folly to try and pick one on form as they are closely matched. So this is a pure probability race and I would default to the market leader here just for ease of decision making.

250 TOWCESTER - Chrysander stands out in an excellent race for place only - 8 runners - 3 places - Chrysander is 1.14 to place.

400 TOWCESTER - an even more ideal place only race - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 20/1 . The Strawberry One is obvious at 4/7 and 1.09, but if the 4 under 20/1 are to dominate, how about There and Then at about 1.45 to place. Clear round required of course.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Do I venture over jumps again today? They can't all fall at the final hurdle ( literally!)

745pm - Derry v Galway Utd - 1.23 home - notwithstanding this Irish League can produce shocks, on all form analysis this is derry's all day.

505 CARTMEL - if Executive Hall runs as he did last time out, he will win, and thus place. 1.26 is very reasonable. A clear round is assumed as ever.

335 REDCAR - 3 horses and 2 places and any choice will be unlucky to be beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race. Default to the fav to place here and hope for the best. Next Edition is that horse, around 1.23 to place currently.

400 TOWCESTER - this is an archetypal place only race - 8 runners - 3 places, 4 under 20/1 . The Strawberry One is the market leader but the place only price is very unappealing. Surely There and Then has just as good a PLACE only chance ( as opposed to a winning chance) and at around 1.45 could be worth chancing.

We assume with this race that it is dominated by the 4 under 20/1 , and the original 2 market leaders mentioned above both complete and both place.







--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94