31/7

Scottish League Cup should see the minnows crushed by those in better leagues and I would focus on the 2 races in the shortlist.
Anderlecht should start their home campaign off with a win against newly promoted side - 1st game of the season so hope there are no surprises - the game is in running which adds to my confidence

The horse racing looks strong today with Sennokian Storm being very well backed already in a good probability race.
ballydoyle's Enchanted Forest looks equally as strong.


*****ONE A DAY - 250 THIRSK - SENNOKIAN STORM TO PLACE ONLY - 1.18 available*****




I should have erred on the side of caution yesterday with the 1.06 shot and just moved on. Duncan was badly hampered 1 furlong out and that scuppered all chances of at least a place as he managed 2 lengths 4th. A real pity.
The galling thing is that the football continues strongly .

FOOTBALL
3pm - Dundee v Montrose 1.22 - Scottish League Cup games for all the Scots teams mentioned today so the prices reflect higher league teams v lower league teams in the traditional fashion for early Cup rounds. Division 1 v Division 3 - Montrose away are very poor. Head to head back in 2008 was 3-0 to Dundee .£27K waiting to back Dundee on Betfair. NOT IN RUNNING so a simple matter of backing and hoping.
3pm - Dunfermline v Arbroath - 1.38 - head to heads in the cup are a little too close for me to be betting without trading. Expect a 1-0, 2-1 if head to heads are anything to go by.
3pm - Inverness CT v Queens Park - 1.2 - Division 1 v Division 3 and Caley are in good recent home form
3pm - Norwich v Everton - 1.81 away - Everton have won all of their friendlies , hence I give them a cautious mention here against a Norwich team they last met in the Premiershp and did the double over. IN RUNNING and may chance Everton to score or lead first.
4pm - Sevastopol v Dinamo Kiev - 1.3 away - early season but home team would seem to be newcomers to the top flight given there are no head to heads.
430pm - Debrecen v Lombard Papa - 1.35 - 5-1 , 4-1, 2-0 head to heads in 2010/2009 all in favour of the home team in what looks to be the beginning of the season so we would really have to rely on history here rather than recent good collateral form.
7pm - Anderlecht v Eupen - 1.21 home - Juliper league begins with Belgian power houses facing newly promoted side. Anderlecht at home expected to stamp their class on this opener, but remember what I have written about openers in the past! May be a shock ( remember Burnley at home last season) IN RUNNING - +1.5 to +2.5 in the asian handicaps signals worse case 1-0, 2-0 or one or 2 goal win to Anderlecht, and best case - optimum performance would be a 3-0 or 3 goal or more home win.
Any unquoted is the shortest priced correct score so expectation there is for Anderlecht to score 4 or more.
8pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Rijeka - 1.34 - 2-2, 6-0, 4-0 head tpo heads - the 2-2 was in 2010 so signals that Zagreb can score
and as this is in running, given they scored 10 in their home head to heads ( 2 games) , perhaps back Zagreb with only trading in mind.

HORSE RACING
220 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Face The Problem, 9/2 Melodize, 11/2 Star Today, 13/2 First Class Favour, Orchid Street, 14/1 Master Macho, 16/1 Jamaica Grande, Johnny Hancocks.

DIOMED VERDICT: The progressive FACE THE PROBLEM is held in plenty of regard and can defy a 7lb rise for last weekend's success at York. Melodize may prove best of the remainder.

Fav a price gapper and now odds on in this nursery

240 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Midnight Rider, 4/1 Fabiello, 5/1 History Repeating, Indigo Way, 10/1 Abjer, 14/1 Pintrada, 16/1 Masonic Lady,

DIOMED VERDICT: INDIGO WAY's debut form worked out tremendously well and he is taken to get the better of fair yardstick Midnight Rider.

Price gapper in a now 7 runner field for 3 places - 4 horses only under 12/1

250 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sennockian Storm, 9/4 Hamloola, 3/1 Nimue, 5/1 Broadway Dancer, 20/1 Shethoughtshewas, 33/1 Tasza, 50/1 Destiny Rules, Rukhsana, 100/1 Only You Maggie.

DIOMED VERDICT: SENNOCKIAN STORM gets the vote on the strength of last week's Ascot effort.

2nd fav a non runner makes this very interesting - only 4 horses under 16/1 here and original fav has nearest rival not running making him the obvious place only chance.

415 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Pausanias, 11/4 Captain Bertie, 9/2 The Mongoose, 7/1 Aerial Acclaim, 14/1 Sinadinou, 25/1 Fine Art Dealer, Sagramor, 33/1 Hurricane Spear, 50/1 Hawridge Knight.

DIOMED VERDICT: Richard Hannon has made no secret of the high opinion he has of Pausanias and the stable's 2yos can do very little wrong but inexperience is always a concern with a newcomer and there may be value in taking him on with CAPTAIN BERTIE following his very promising debut in a similar race recently.

Very interesting in that there are 5 horses only under 25/1 here , but the majority are debutants. You would have to have faith in the betting market and connections' views of their horses and , as Diomed mentions,. there's no better starting point than Richard Hannon's Pausanias
Highly risky race though given the number of debutants.

430 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Enchanted Forest, 11/4 Hasty Katie, 13/2 Honey Of A Kitten, 10/1 Harrison´s Cave, In Good Voice, Ploopluck Bridge, 25/1 Bleuker, Rio Silver, 50/1 Lilly The Lion.

Ballydoyle fav has 2 seconds and is no odds on with Johnny Murtagh in the saddle - they will very rarely go too long without winning

435 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Vesuve, 5/2 Harald Bluetooth, 5/1 Smokey Oakey, 40/1 Richo, 100/1 Slap And Tickle.

DIOMED VERDICT: The lightly raced Harald Bluetooth still has plenty of potential and it would be significant if the market marks the right noises on his return from a 556-day absence but VESUVE sets a smart standard and should take plenty of beating.

Pure probability race and the obvious starting point is the 3 horses below 40/1 - 2 will place and Vesuve is obvious of course.

625 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Timothy T, 7/2 Fly By White, 8/1 Endaxi Mana Mou, 10/1 Educated Son, 12/1 Gamesmanship, 16/1 Miss Nimbus, 20/1 Wanchai Minx, 25/1 Captain Sharpe, Robber Stone, 28/1 Bernie´s Tune, 33/1 Dances With Words.

DIOMED VERDICT: A good opportunity for TIMOTHY T (nap).

Only 2 under 10/1 and those have only had one run.

840 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Jemima Nicholas, 2/1 Henry Morgan, 11/2 Red Roar, 15/2 Kristen Jane, 20/1 Our Angel, 25/1 Billionaire Boy, J´Amour Dance, 33/1 Mark Carmers.

DIOMED VERDICT: JEMIMA NICHOLAS has gone close in both her starts and has solid claims for a yard which is 6-13 here in recent years

8 runner maiden race and only 4 are under 20/1 - Jemima has 2 2nds, is odds on and has a great probability of placing in the first 3.

SHORTLIST
3pm - Dundee v Montrose 1.22 - Cup game - should be a gulf in class - head to heads, albeit not recent, comprehensively in favour of Dundee - NOT IN RUNNING
3pm - Inverness CT v Queens Park - 1.2 - gulf in leagues again and the home side are in good home form. - NOT IN RUNNING
7pm - Anderlecht v Eupen - 1.21 home - I would hope for a rude awakening for these newcomers as the Belgian giants are their first opponents in the Juliper League - IN RUNNING - first game of the season so you never know and will have to trust home form and rep of the home side against a team they have no history with.

250 THIRSK - only 4 under 20/1 - 2nd fav a none runner - Sennokian Storm all red, 5/4 and backed - Johnston horse . Nimue and Broadway dancer are the 2 who I think should be involved at the business end along with Sennokian Storm. Nimue especially is of interest but he has either the experience of recent runs, or you can look at it as him being rather exposed.

1.18 to place for Sennokian Storm and 1.29 for Nimue in a race which should be dominated by these 2. It is a maiden race though and 4 opponents are one time outers and theorectically open to improvement and one is a debutant but the market is not speaking for them.

430 GALWAY - Enchanted Forest should make the placings again this time after 2 second places, both of which were eyecatching. Ballydoyle horse has top jockey on board.
1.15 to place albeit in an illiquid market.

435 NEWMARKET - this is one of those probability races where 3 horses should be vying for 2 places and Vesuve makes obvious appeal as the strong market leader
- "should take plenty of beating" and Ted Durcan rides for Godolphin. 2nd fav has 555 day absence - around 1.12 to place in a race where 3 are under 50/1, and Vesuve is odds on. Will he get beaten by 2 horses in an apparent 3 horse race?
840 HAMILTON - you know the drill by now with these evening races - we have to consult the market nearer the off with so long until race time. As things stand, this is becoming another superb place only race - 4 only under 20/1 and an odds on favourite in Jemima Nicholas

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
7pm - Anderlecht v Eupen - 1.21 home - in running so watch out for enhanced betting if opponents take the lead or lead at any stage. Opening match of the season so we need to be a little wary but this team lost one, drew 2 and won 11 at home last season. Won their first 2 home games last season,.
If they click, Anderlecht should win by 3 or 4. IN RUNNING so I am happy to entertain this match.

250 Thirsk - Sennokian Storm and Nimue are the 2 horses for me with the money coming for the former . Only 2 pieces of form and an improved 2nd last time out. The sight of Joe Fanning would have cemented this but as things stand, looks a good probability to place. - 4 horses under 20/1 and 11/10 now - still shortening.

430 GALWAY - Enchanted Forest should place here for the powerful Ballydoyle

840 HAMILTON - looks an excellent race to return to


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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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Canonbury Publishing Ltd
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Romford, RM6 5SS

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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

30/7

Mata Keranjang is the obvious contender today,but then this is reflected in his price of 1.06 to place.
I am always concerned with getting involved with obvious contenders in big meetings unless the race has the look of Canford Cliffs ( 3 under 20/1 and 3 places for 7 runners). Duncan's race sees 2nd and 3rd favourites become non runners and there are only 5 horses under 20/1. The hope is that he can find a place in the first 3 , if this race is dominated, as expected, by the front 5 in the betting.


*****ONE A DAY 210 Goodwood - DUNCAN TO PLACE ONLY****


Safer bet looks to be Mata Keranjang at 1.06 to place though





Give your verdict won, and I just had that feeling that there would be a couple of erroneous football results as teams new to each other meet for the first time. Galatasary drew 2-2 ( not tradeable as not in running) and another strong fav lost 1-0 when down to 10 men scuppering what was, as I emphasised, a very speculative multiple .

FOOTBALL
4pm - Arsenal Kiev v Shakhtar - 1.39 away - ukrainian league match and in head to heads Shaktar have the clear edge winning ( latest first) 3-1, 4-2, 3-0 in 2010 and 2009 encounters. Priced today to do the same. Asian handicap goes from +1 to +2 so the market is telling us that an optimum performance from Shaktar will produce a 3 goal win . If Arsenal Kiev perform to their best, then a draw or one goal loss is on the cards.
Looking at head to heads, which would you opt for? IN RUNNING
8pm - Monaghan Utd v Mervue Utd - 1.25 home - irish league football is to betting what Victoria Beckham is to singing! but, with such short odds for a home side, it is worth investigating

Home team Monaghan have a home record of 5-2-3 (W-D-L) for their 10 home games this season, 17 points from a possible 30. That's a home points average of 1.70 compared to 1.85 for all games this season. Monaghan's recent points average is 2.33, 14 points from 6 games 4-2-0 (W-D-L) Monaghan's last 10 league games record reads LLWDWDWWWD (DWDWDWWWWD) while their last 10 home league games read DLDWWLLWWW (WWWLDLWWWW).

Away team Mervue Utd have an away record of 1-0-9 (W-D-L) for their 10 away games this season, 3 points from a possible 30. That's an away points average of 0.30 compared to 0.60 for all games this season. Mervue Utd's recent points average is 0.50, 3 points from games; Mervue Utd's last 10 league games record reads WLWLLLWLLL (LWLDLLWLLL) while their last 10 away league games read LLLLLWLLLL (LLLLWLLDLL).

Immediately the stand out stat is the woeful performance of Mervue united away from home. 1464 v 434 ratings hint at a gulf in class ( if class is the right word to use) I draw your attention to a previous venture of mine into irish football when a team who won 7-0 away in 2010 could only win 1-0 at home! Unpredictable is the word to describe Irish league one football.

The stats relay an easy home win to justify the odds. +1.5 to + 2 for away side in the asian handicap hints at a 2-0 or 3-0 home win - this IS in running.

915pm - Benfica v Feyenoord - 1.61 home - Benfica = goals and in the Dutch top flight, Feyenoord are not goal shy either. Benfica easily dispatched of Sunderland and might be worth backing at 1.61 to score first to trade out after they score or lead at any stage in this match? Or a neutral bet - over 1.5 goals? +0.5 and + 1 hints at a tight match -will these 2 cancel each other out? but I cannot get away from these goals Benfica have scored in friendlies in July - 2-3-5-3-4-1 in 6 friendlies .
0245am - Guadalajara v Man Utd - 1.71 away - you just got that feeling in the last match that United would not lose 2 friendlies on the trot and so it proved as they annihilated MLS All stars. Again similarly priced tonight against fairly unknown to me Guadalajara.

Mention for Cheltenham v Wolves at 745pm which does not seem to be on the Betfair coupon - Wolves have been solid in their friendlies and won when expected. If this match appears at any stage, this match may be worth investigating.

HORSERACING

210 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Duncan, 5/1 Cavalryman, 7/1 La De Two, Sri Putra, 8/1 Manighar, 10/1 Redwood, 12/1 Kingdom Of Fife, 20/1 Whispering Gallery, 25/1 Golden Sword, 33/1 Traffic Guard.

DIOMED VERDICT: DUNCAN is preferred to Cavalryman.

Price gapper already but what if I relay the fact that 2nd and 3rd favourites are non runners!! 2nd to Harbinger has been strenghtened by that one's win recently.

300 THIRSK

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sheila Toss, 4/1 Elijah Pepper, 8/1 Glenridding, Salerosa, 10/1 Kilt Rock, Seldom, 14/1 Musca, Spin Again, 16/1 King´s Sabre, 20/1 Baybshambles, Diggeratt, Nacho Libre, 33/1 Ubenkor, 66/1 Knavesmire.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHEILA TOSS comes here at the top of her game and will be hard to beat in an ordinary event.

2nd fav a non runner makes this Shiela Toss's job a tad easier. Hannon horse but no Hughes on board (he's at Goodwood)

335 THIRSK

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Mata Keranjang, 9/2 Nesmeh, 13/2 Forks, 16/1 Hades, Nephele, Up At Last, 20/1 Tarooq, 33/1 March Forth, 50/1 Majic Mojo, Prince James, 66/1 Denison Flyer, 100/1 Barton Bounty, Sandgate Story, Shamo Hill Theatre.

DIOMED VERDICT: MATA KERANJANG faces by far his least demanding assignment to date and it will be disappointing if he doesn't collect.

What a coincidence as another provisional 2nd favourite becomes a non runner! Mata is now 1/3 and rock solid given the company he has been keeping.

455 BANGOR ON DEE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Our Guardian Angel, 3/1 Redunderthebed, 6/1 Martha Elizabeth, 7/1 A Nun With A Gun, 8/1 Niamh´s Way, 14/1 Singapore Harbour, Winter Holly, 16/1 Kavegirl, 50/1 Star Of Raven, 100/1 Fenella Mere.

DIOMED VERDICT: OUR GUARDIAN ANGEL boasts the recent hurdle form to net a race like this.

VAughan/Johnson on the fav here who is now 10/11 odds on and has come 322 in last 3 hurdles races so hints at being a safe conveyance.

515 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Jacqueline Quest, 6/1 Golden Stream, 7/1 Puff, 8/1 Tabassum, 10/1 Tropical Paradise, 11/1 Summer Fete, 14/1 Pyrrha, 16/1 Strictly Dancing, 25/1 Blue Angel,

DIOMED VERDICT: A race that revolves around JACQUELINE QUEST, who is a standout on her good recent runs in Group 1 races and ought to be extremely hard to beat.

" ought to be extremely hard to beat" strong words from Diomed for this price gapper.

530 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Lords Bridge, 6/1 Low Delta, 10/1 Mulligan´s Pride, Plenty Of Chat, Prince Noora, Smart John, Strumble Head, 12/1 Bring It On Home, 14/1 Spare Change, 20/1 Albert Park, 25/1 Ridley Taylor, 33/1 Stowford Press, Tarkesar.

DIOMED VERDICT: LOW DELTA shaped well when placing at Worcester and remains on a winnable mark.

They're determined to get another win out of this Lords Bridge ( unseated when strong fav yesterday) now switched to a conditional jockeys race today and odds on with 2nd fav again a non runner.

605 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Grand Zafeen, 7/2 Bathwick Xaara, 5/1 Going French, 6/1 Panpiper, 10/1 Great Intrigue, Poppy Golightly, 16/1 Avongate, Candyfloss Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: GRAND ZAFEEN (nap) can follow up her Folkestone win and maintain her good run of form.

Not a classic place race like the last 2 days but we have 8 runners ( 3 places), a 6/5 favourite, and 4 horses under 14/1 who could dominate?

5 furlongs and firm ground the niggles ( but horse has won on firm)

650 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Natural High, 6/1 Bob Le Beau, Laughing Boy, 13/2 Gimli´s Rock, 7/1 Aladdins Cave, Scandal Sheet, 10/1 Tovaria, 12/1 Celtic Dane, 14/1 Rajik, Vitruvian Man, 16/1 Mon Champion, Peacock´s Pride, 20/1 Avanti Albert, Bravely Fought, 25/1 Bashkirov, 33/1 Tin Town Boy, 50/1 Lonesome Maverick, Zaralabad,

The Weld/Smullen factor shortened this to 2/1?

720 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Madany, 7/2 Reginald Claude, 6/1 On The High Tops, 7/1 Belle Royale, 15/2 Unknown Rebel, 9/1 Bussa, Lady Platinum Club, 25/1 Las Verglas Star.

DIOMED VERDICT: Madany, who won in very good style here recently and comes from a stable whose 2yos are running particularly well, and REGINALD CLAUDE, whose Nottingham win has worked out particularly well, are taken to dominate.

6/4, all red, and a course and distance winner this Madany.

725 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Falcon Flight, 15/8 Raffaello Santi, 9/2 Battleoftrafalgar, 5/1 Sailors Warn, 12/1 Quest For Gold, 25/1 Erin´s Joy, 33/1 Fearchar, 50/1 Caradan, 100/1 Pickety Witch.

Only 5 should be involved in this race for 3 places but which 3? 3 horses come from Ballydoyle, adn we have Weld/Smullen of course.

805 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Azaday, 7/2 Cheerfully, 5/1 Meetings Man, Red Barcelona, 14/1 Highland Cadett, 16/1 On The Cusp, 25/1 Polebrook,

DIOMED VERDICT: AZADAY (nap) has a cracking chance on paper given she's due to go up 5lb from tomorrow and her pedigree suggests this step up to 1m4f will bring about more improvement.

7 runners but still 3 places and Azaday has Ted Durcan onboard and I do like this jockey whenever he is employed other than Godolphin. Hope that rise in trip suits .

SHORTLIST
4pm - Arsenal Kiev v Shakhtar - 1.39 away - I do prefer backing home teams but the asian handicap and the head to heads point to a Shaktar win - back them perhaps to lay off if they lead at any stage as this is in running.
8pm - Monaghan Utd v Mervue Utd - 1.25 home - away form is poor for Mervue but then so is Irish First Division football!

210 GOODWOOD - sure things at Goodwood, as with all major meetings, don't always go in but seeing 2nd and 3rd favs non runners and Harbinger victorious earlier in the week to frank the form makes Duncan appealing - 1.24 to place
8 runners and 3 are 20/1 or bigger which hopefully leaves 5 runners for 3 places and an argument for probabilities.

335 THIRSK - mata Keranjang looks standout here based on form in far better company than today's. Already is 1/3 in the live betting market.1.07 to place and 1.37 to win.Change in jockey today from Frank Spencer to Silvestre de Sousa

455 BANGOR -ON-DEE - our Guardian angel represents a strong jockey/trainer combo and , for a hurdler, seems to be a reliable jumper ( as ever these need to complete for us to collect) - 1.2 to place and the only horse under evens in the place only market could be the clincher. The market expects a placing at least.

515 GOODWOOD - " extremely hard to beat" states Spotlight for Jacqueline Quest who was first past the post in the 1000 guineas only to be disqualified.
Slight warning that these fillies races do throw up surprises 1.33 to place,

725 GALWAY - with a bit of luck, and bit of a look at the market nearer the off, we can make an educated guess as to which of the 5-most-likely are going to place in the first 3

805 NEWMARKET - need to see the market nearer the off and Azaday looks most likely here if coping with rise in trip under the excellent Ted Durcan.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
210 GOODWOOD - am I missing something here or is the argument for Duncan placing a strong one?
- 2nd and 3rd favs are non runners
-2nd to Harbinger who won his group 1 on 24th July
-5 horses under 20/1 should be involved , ideally, for the 3 places

335 THIRSK - Mata Keranjang is strong here but this is reflected in the 1.07 in the place market. Might be worth putting up 1.10 in in running and hope it gets matched. Chance the win only market?

4pm - Arsenal Kiev v Shakhtar - 1.39 away - I would be happy to lay Arsenal Kiev here at about 9.6 for an equivalent 1.10 back bet given the asian handicaps and head to heads point to an away win ( I would like to cover the draw)

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

29/7

I have to admit that days like this are difficult as I can do all the work in the world, all bets shortlisted can come in successfully, and the one I pick falters.. There are some really strong shortlist bets with the likes of Juventus away to Shamrock Rovers but I have stuck with the 2 matches which are priced at around 1.17 and are more obvious as hot favourites are playing at home.



*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Maritimo v Bangor city - back Maritimo in the match odds at around 1.17 .They are unbeaten in their last 10 and I hope can make home advantage count*****



1.15 at the off for both shortlisted horses yesterday was welcome, although to be honest I could only manage 1.11 for the one a day selection - so it's swings and roundabouts really.

FOOTBALL
230pm Germany U20 (W) v South Korea U20 (W) - 1.41 home team - 3-0 in a friendly as recently as June could signal strength behind the German Madchen.Under 20 world cup scorelines for the Germans reads very well ( latest last) 4-2 , 3-1 , 4-1 , 2-0.
South Koreans have been equally impressive from a goal scoring perspective with 4-0 , 4-2 , 1-0 loss to USA and 3-1 win

There is no collateral form bar said friendly. This World Cup is being held in Germany which gives Ze Germans a huge advantage.

515pm - Karpaty v Zestafoni - 1.41 home side - Europa League match and no way to weigh up the form bar a look at the way the market is priced with home advantage. - Ukrainian v Georgian leagues
530pm - Elfsborg v FK Teteks - 1,35 home side - Swedish v macedonian league and Elfsborg are a familiar side and have good home league form but again no collateral form with Teteks.
530pm - Molde v Stuttgart - 1.5 away side - obvious pointer towards the Bundesliga v the Norwegian league. Stuttgart have scored in all of their last 10 matches ( may be more but my records only go back 10 games for the website in which I am doing my research)
600pm - Valerenga v Barcelona - 1.37 away - this is the beginning of Barca's pre season friendlies against a Valerenga side who have already played a friendly and have recent form in their league. Very tempting of course whenever Barca take to the field and what chance we get a run out from Villa? Team news for Barca will be vital in determining whether this is a friendly match to avoid ( Villa) or side with ( Villareal v Bray)
On any normal day this is a Barca banker of course. Remember also the World Cup as the Spanish side was pretty much the Barca side!!

605pm - OB v Zrinjski - 1.38 home - away side have had to go through round 1 and 2 of Europa League qualifying and Ob Odense turn up now , at home and priced at 1.38 .OB have played 2 friendlies as preparation for this. Away side play in the Bosnian league.
700pm -Galatasaray v OFK Belgrade - 1.17 home - these are the prices that very rarely let me down for one a days, we just need to justify backing them. Galatasary failed to finish in the Top 2 and were outdone by Bursaspor on this occasion - the first time, I suspect, in a long time that the dual dominance of Fenerbahce and Galatasary was breached in the league. Lost 2, drew 4 and won 11 at home during that league campaign, with 53% over 2.5 goals.
2 club friendlies in July include a 1-0 away loss to Fenerbache but we cannot tell who played etc , as usual with friendlies.
Away side are from the Serbian super league and have already had to get through a round in this Europa league, clinching their place with a 1-0 away win.
The market says Gala, the difference in the leagues screams Gala too.


700pm - Wisla Krakow v Karabakh - 1.31 home - away side struggled to overcome Portadown in an earlier round so that could give a clue as to their strengths . Krakow unbeaten in their last 5 ( maybe more but I only have records for 5) and the Polish league looks instincively to be stronger than the Azerbaijan league.
730pm - Olympiakos v Maccabi Tel Aviv - 1.36 home - we know all about the Greek giants but these Israeli teams have been triky customers and these Greeks , against stronger teams, tend to play more defensively.
730pm - Sturm Graz v Dinamo Tbilisi - 1.36 home
745pm - AZ Alkmaar v IFK Goteborg - 1.45 home - unbeaten in their last 10 includes a few friendlies, AZ used to be reliable goalscorers in the Dutch top flight - 5th in the league this time.
745pm - Maritimo v Bangor City - 1.17 home - the best Portugeuse team outside the obvious big 4 of Braga, Benfica, Sporting Lisbon and Porto. Unbeaten in their last 6 at home in the league. Have only lost once in their last 10 matches and that was 3-2 away to Braga, Maritimo should have too much for Bangor City whose opponents in the Welsh Premier League don't quite have the credentials of Porto/Sporting/Benfica/Braga et al. If maritimo show the slightest interest in this competition, they should make home advantage count.
745pm - Rabotnicki v Liverpool - 1.37 away - Woy's wabble face Wabotnicki. Woy has a weasonable weputation in this competition in his days with Fulham and the friendlies played recently are inconclusive as the scorelines suggest a tinkering with personnel. This must be a Liverpool goal this season so expect no slip ups. - With a 745pm kick off there is no reason to jump in and nail your colours to the mast. Team news will be important as will a look at the Asian handicap markets. Home team play in the Macedonian league and this should be an easy away win if Liverpool are fully wound up.
745pm - Shamrock Rovers v Juventus - 1.31 away - this is not a friendly but a Europa League encounter and it would be a shock if this were anything other than a Juve win with their first team out, but why the relatively large 1.31?
745pm - Wycombe v Chelsea - 1.26 away - only beat Palace 1-0 and another side who perhaps do not need to win at all costs in their friendlies - this does not show up at the website I am using for head to heads so I cannot really gauge Chelsea's attitude via their scorelines to friendlies.

HORSERACING

At first glance there are some strong candidates in the football, and, more importantly, in football matches which mean something.
As far as the horse racing is concerned - well we can only hope for another Canford Cliffs as competitive Goodwood and Galway continue.

150 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Prince Erik, 7/2 Chicago Grey, 11/2 Carsonstown Boy, 6/1 Bronte Bay, 7/1 Hot Oscar, 8/1 Chaussettes, Forjoetheplumber, Warne, 10/1 Ball Of Blue, Gonebeyondrecall, Slash And Burn, 12/1 Carheenlea, Covie Lad, 16/1 Flying Johnny M, 20/1 Powerberry, Ted Gunther, Without The Bop, 25/1 Ballinoe Bob,

The favourite is another Weld runner and 2nd fav is from Gordon Elliott's stable ( the master of Perth)
Forjoetheplumber might be a play on ForPaddytheplasterer who was a top class horse so there might be a connection there worthy of interest?

255 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Holoko Heights, 7/2 Santera, 11/2 Herschel, 9/1 Douchkette, 10/1 Knightsbridgelives, Navajo Nation, 16/1 Mocha Java, 25/1 Iron Man Of Mersey, 33/1 Motor Home.

DIOMED VERDICT: HOLOKO HEIGHTS has thrived at this level and this is a good opportunity to complete a hat-trick.

A selling hurdle would not normally interest me but this is Richard Johnson and Tim Vaughan's favourite so deserves consideration at now odds on in a hatrick bid.

300 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Designated Decoy, 5/1 Izagonawin, 6/1 Luttrell Lady, 8/1 Separate Ways, 9/1 Home Secretary, 10/1 Hawkhill, Inwood, 12/1 Time Machine, 14/1 Daring Man, 16/1 Final Flashback, Prayer Boat, Putapriceonthat, 20/1 All About Timing, Karkari, 25/1 Shaimaa, Tarrsille, 33/1 Mountain Coral, Wildfire Blaze,

Weld/Smullen favourite is now 7/4

310 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Albacocca, 5/1 Dubawi King, 6/1 Chichina, 12/1 Dubara Reef, Mr Maximas, Torran Sound, 16/1 Groove Master, Royal Torbo, 50/1 Silver Astralis.

DIOMED VERDICT: Dubawi King and ALBACOCCA can fight this out, with preference for the Prescott runner

We saw this with Tuscan Gold who placed when raised to 2 miles and here, he saddles Alacocca who fits the profile - winner last time out up in trip in a handicap and a price gapper. 8 runners now, currently 4/6 - - - - -- 7/1 price gap , only 5 under 20/1 should fight for the 3 places so there is a hint of the probabilities about this one.

325 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Age Of Aquarius, 3/1 Tactic, 7/1 Kite Wood, Purple Moon, 10/1 Illustrious Blue, 20/1 Free Agent, Wajir, 25/1 Electrolyser, 40/1 The Betchworth Kid, 66/1 Caracciola, 150/1 Kid Charlemagne,

DIOMED VERDICT: AGE OF AQUARIUS (nap) has strong claims on his excellent second in the Gold Cup at Ascot last time.

Not nearly as clear cut as Canford Cliffs yesterday but a betting market that is, again, of interest. There are only 5 horses under 20/1 in the betting forecast. This is replicated in the live betting market. Yesterday's race finished 1-2-3 in betting order and the hope is that today the front 3 come from these 5 horses who are under 20/1

Age of Aquarius and Tactic are clear in the betting - will they dominate like Canford and Rip? If so . then value place only is Tactic.

400 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Flying Cloud, 4/1 Polly´s Mark, 9/2 Myplacelater, 8/1 Eastern Aria, 9/1 Ship´s Biscuit, 11/1 Motrice, 12/1 Rosika, Starfala, 16/1 Cassique Lady, 20/1 Tinaar, 25/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, Just Lille, 40/1 Uvinza.

DIOMED VERDICT: Flying Cloud looks the established class act, with Myplacelater the pick of three promising 3yos, but the most persuasive combination of class and likely stamina belongs to POLLY'S MARK.

Favourite is now 9/4 for Godolphin and Frankie Dettori - market is confident , as it is with Hughes/Hannon Polly's Mark

420 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Give Your Verdict, 4/1 Cookie Crumbles, 9/2 Battle Honour, 10/1 Eastern Magic, Forever Hope, 12/1 Supa Seeker, 16/1 Chichi, 20/1 Dirakh Shan, 33/1 Hedonist, 66/1 Norville.

DIOMED VERDICT: GIVE YOUR VERDICT has been expensive to follow but the form of his recent runner-up efforts stack up quite well and 80-rated colt could be poised to deliver. I gave a strong mention to this favourite when he last ran and regretting not place backing him. Well he's been 2nd on 3 occasions now and is still a strong market leader. One of only 4 under 25/1 and one of only 3 under 14/1 , has a great probability of placing if continuing the strong placed form. 3lb claimer dampens enthusiasm slightly here ( Ryan Moore up last time) - no debutants and there are 4 one time outers who may improve dramatically ( shortest priced of these is Forever Hope at 14/1) 530 GALWAY BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Force Of Habit, 7/1 Makhaaleb, 8/1 Strandfield Lady, 10/1 Hawk Flight, 12/1 Faoileanda, Prospectorous, Saponara, 14/1 Bay Swallow, Dusty Trail, Malande, Roll Over Rover, 20/1 Shady Gloom, The Tartan Army, 25/1 Lizzie Bennett, 33/1 Diamond Shower, Lac A Dancer, 50/1 Billys Dream, Via Mantua, 11/10 - - - - - 8/1 is the current price gap and this is, yes you guessed, a Weld/Smullen horse Here are the current jockey and trainer stats for this Galway festival Dermot Weld - 9 wins and 2 3rds pat Smullen - 4 wins and 2 3rds Nuff said when this pair have such a huge price gapper! This handicap will also pay out on 4 places which is a bonus ( 16+ handicap field) "Had been progressing nicely on the Flat prior to winning a novice hurdle at this track on Monday and promises to be very well suited by this longer trip back on the level; he is well drawn and is the one they all have to beat." " he looks to be rock solid and can continue his trainer's excellent run of form at this meeting" Normally I would steer clear of 17 runner handicaps but this looks an exception given the context of the Festival and the trainer/jockey form at it. 650 MUSSELBURGH BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Ice Trooper, 9/2 Isontonic, 5/1 Beyaz Villas, 12/1 Eilean Mor. DIOMED VERDICT: ICE TROOPER, who only just failed to open his account back at this trip last time, should go one better here unless newcomer Isontonic is above average. yes I know, a 4 runner, 2 places, class 5 2 year old maiden but why is Ice trooper now 1/3 in placed ( and bear in mind the race time too!!) SHORTLIST 230pm Germany U20 (W) v South Korea U20 (W) - 1.41 - obvious call would be the Germans here at home , but the proliferation of goals from both sides may hint at an over 1.5 goals bet at 1.17? - this involves both sides and if South Korea score first then we are assured , really, of the bet coming in. 530pm - Molde v Stuttgart - 1.5 away side - in running and the asian handicaps point to a close match goalswise with the optimum being a 2 goal win for Stuttgart. Molde could be layable at 8.6 currently for around a 1.12 equivalent back bet especially if the away side continue their scoring at least one in their matches ) last 10 and could be more!) 600pm - Valerenga v Barcelona - 1.37 away - very obvious who we should side with in the real world but decisions for me can only be made with team news - if Villa plays, perhaps back him in the goalscorer market. Remember Barcelona are pretty much the Spanish World Cup winning side so they may still be on leave? 700pm -Galatasaray v OFK Belgrade - 1.17 home - turkish v Serbian league and a Europa League match. 745pm - Maritimo v Bangor City - 1.17 home - home team keep far better quality in their domestic league than that found in the Welsh Premier League. 745pm - Rabotnicki v Liverpool - 1.37 away - do Liverpool rely on the home leg in this early stage of the Europa League? Or can we trust that there is no win wust in Woy's new Liverpool - interesting Asian handicap market points to +1.5 and 2 handicap for home side - a possible 1-0, 2-0 ,as high as 3-0 Liverpool win. Strong Liverpool side, please , Roy. 745pm - Shamrock Rovers v Juventus - 1.31 away - a Europa League tie so competitive and on paper an easy win for the Italian giants - containment job for Shamrock rovers? Surely there should not be a shock for a team from a very weak irish League who got beaten recently by Shelbourne Rovers 310 NOTTINGHAM - this race is reminiscent of yesterday's Piddie Power race in profile. 8/11 - - - - - 7/1 price gapper ; 8 runners and 3 places ; only 5 horses under 20/1 all add up to good probability chance that the odds on favourite Albacocca will place in the first 3. 1.19 to place ( guide price as market illiquid) and the only horse under evens in the place market by some significant margin. Up in trip to 2 miles today and this is typical of the type of strategy employed successfully previously by Sir Mark Prescott 325 GOODWOOD - believe the hype and back Age of Aquarius to place in the first 3 in a race which should involve just the 5 runners under 20/1 in the betting ( if the market is as accurate as yesterday's Canford Cliffs market) 1.31 to place and dominant in the place only market 420 NOTTINGHAM - I missed out on Give your verdict last time out and he obliged with another 2nd place - only 3 horses under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1 augur well for the horse to place. Illiquid market and 1.11 to place with £1500 waiting to be matched to back at 1.15 Return to 1 mile today may be in his favour - pity Ryan Moore cannot ride today but Beuzelin is an adequate claimer 530 GALWAY - Force of habit is the runner for the winningmost trainer and winningmost jockey so far at the Festival and has already won at the Festival on Monday - 4 places and 1.31 to place acknowledges this is a big field handicap . The journos at the Racing Post will not see defeat for this one which makes the 1.31 somewhat tempting with the 4 places. 650 MUSSELBURGH - Ice trooper bettered in the market and 1.08 to place with 6+ hours til race time. Maiden with 2 places only but a 50/50 race SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 700pm -Galatasaray v OFK Belgrade - 1.17 home - included because of the odds and the fact this is a competitive match and Gala have home advantage. NOT IN RUNNING so not salvageable if a bet is struck - asian handicap market gives opponenets a minimum of 1.5 goal start to a maximum of 2.5 goal start. Little really known about OFK Belgrade 745pm - Maritimo v Bangor City - 1.17 home - I am more familiar with bangor City than OFK Belgrade and would trust maritimo at home , coming from a much stronger league. By the same token, I am more familiar with galatasary than Maritimo. The problem with the above 2 bets is that there is no collateral form between the sides and this leaves matches such as these open to surprise. 420 NOTTINGHAM - Give your verdict should be competitive here for the place. SPECULATIVE MULTIPLE 1 Germany U20 (W) v South Korea U20 (W) (Laying South Korea U20 (W) @ 12.65) 2 Elfsborg v FK Teteks (Laying FK Teteks @ 15.22) 3 Valerenga v Barcelona (Laying Valerenga @ 11.02) 4 Galatasaray v OFK Belgrade (Backing Galatasaray @ 1.14) 5 Wisla Krakow v Karabakh (Laying Karabakh @ 26.38) 6 Maritimo v Bangor City (Laying Bangor City @ 173.07) 7 Shamrock Rovers v Juventus (Laying Shamrock Rovers @ 18.96) 8 Rabotnicki v Liverpool (Laying Rabotnicki @ 14.27) 8-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8 1.74 £57.20 £42.33 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info Total stake: £57.20 Your total potential win: £42.33 Betfair won't let me get my usual £100 on ( I can though by doing the multiple twice) - highly speculative as there are some away sides but has a good chance of coming off. of course, the bigger the multiple the more difficult it is to win, but having layed 7 of the teams I am covering the draw. Long time followers know that these have been very successful during the football league season and I must warn you that Europa league matches and other such one offs are open to unforeseen shocks where perhaps League encounters are not. -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94