30/6

3 selections that come from 3 different sports - horse racing/tennis /football.
I cannot get this Djokovic game out of my mind but am aware that I am not the best tennis tipster in the world.
Chesapeake has 3 miles to tackle but seems to only have 5 horses as rivals ( only 5 under 50/1)

Rosenborg should win and over 2.5 goals would be the call here but only with trading in mind

The 9pm and 910 races are very interesting./ Do check the blog at 845pm - I will try to update it only ( the email provider takes too long to get to you so the immediacy of the blog is better for updates)

***** ONE A DAY WIMBLEDON 1pm NOVAK DJOKOVIC V LU - BACK NOVAK DJOKOVIC AT 1.18 MATCH ODDS*****


The hope is that the games against Roddick ( 4 tie breakers) will show that Lu got lucky with the right points at the right time, and will also be more tired that Novak. Those wanting a horse racing bet will have to return to the blog at 845pm _BLOG ONLY I'm afraid






All of the shortlist of the shortlist came in yesterday, Mayson won, Tilliedudlem won, Battle of Britain placed and Portugal/Portugal halftime /fulltime was done by half time

I do hope some followed me in with Mayson in the win market yesterday - I did not put it up as an official bet because it was a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden and Mayson had only the one run, but I made a personal exception because the 1.5 win odds were shortened to 1.17 at the off!!

FOOTBALL

5pm - Rosenborg v Alta - 1.11 home - as I suspected this is a Norwegian Cup game and these have tended to go with the odds. Rosenborg are well known Norwegian top leaguers who tend to dominate season after season. The only concerns are complacency and a weakened possible Rosenborg side.Not being an afficionado of the beautiful game as it is played in Norway I must just go with the odds and the fact I recognise Rosenborg.

The match is in running. Normally 1.11 signals a 3 or 4 goal victory and a halftime/fulltime victory ( 1.36 currently)

Over 2.5 goals is 1.29 which appeals given that www.bet365.com go as short as 10 for the 5-0 win!!

And do check out the markets at www.bet365.com for this match as they will be a lot more liquid than Betfair's markets in a match that has not caught the attention of the Betfairians as yet.

TENNIS
The match that most interests me today is the match between Djokovic and Lu. Lu had to battle hard against Andy Roddick in a long running 5 setter ( I say long running -it was not in the Mahut v Isner category!). He may find another top class seeded opponent a step too far.

1.19 for Djokovic.

230 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Orchid Street, 3/1 Normandy Maid, 7/2 Lady Kildare, 7/1 Royal Hush, 10/1 Empress Royal, Miserere, 12/1 Holy Arrangement, 20/1 Tancred Spirit, 100/1 Immacolata,

DIOMED VERDICT: LADY KILDARE got much closer to Orchid Street when third over C&D last time than she had on her debut and can make it third time lucky. Orchard Street's recent 2nd over course and distance may be enough to side with her in this maiden ( from a place only perspective of course) Has seen some support into 7/4 favourite 240 WORCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Chesapeake, 3/1 Downward Spiral, 5/1 Knar Mardy, 6/1 Marblehead, 10/1 Triggernometry, 16/1 Lighting Larry, 25/1 Chouromanesco, Diddle´Em, Karzelle, 33/1 She´s Little Don, 50/1 Nishnash, 100/1 Frame And Cover, Stafford Charlie. DIOMED VERDICT: The in-form CHESAPEAKE (nap) has produced enough as a hurdler, including here, to suggest he can take this. THere are only 5 horses under 50/1 at time of writing which surely makes this a great probability race? Chesapeake is odds on now and has McCoy onboard who actually has a terrible record when selected by me as one a day!! ( Sorry AP!) 2nd over course and distance last time augurs well for today. 320 PERTH BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Millrock Lady, 5/1 Grace N´ Favour, 11/2 Tear Drops, 10/1 Windmill Cross, 12/1 Lady Edina, 14/1 Niamh´s Way, 20/1 Orpen Bid, 25/1 Thorpey´s Girl, 100/1 Alwood Flora, Modestine. DIOMED VERDICT: A soft race that shouldn't take much winning and MILLROCK LADY would appear to be in pole position. Perth does attract some eyecatching Irish visitors and none more so than Paul Carberry riding for Gordon Elliot Only 3 under 14/1 here and Grace n Favour has closed the price gap slightly in the live betting market. Concern is there is no real collateral form between Irish raiders and their predominantly English raced counterparts. 450 PERTH BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Beidh Tine Anseo, 5/1 Wikaala, 6/1 Dishdasha, 7/1 Rampant Ronnie, 8/1 Spa Wells, 10/1 Annibale Caro, Right Or Wrong, 12/1 Duty Free, 20/1 Ravati, 100/1 Humourous. DIOMED VERDICT: SPA WELLS looked unlucky a couple of runs back and was always going to struggle at Down Royal last time. On a 4 timer and winning runs end eventually - more so when there's obstacles to overcome, but the very fact that the horse has won 3 times over hurdles means at least we can be confident about the jumping. 500 CATTERICK BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Quite Sparky, 9/4 Offspring, 14/1 Barren Brook, 20/1 Spread Boy, 25/1 Hairy Maclary, 50/1 Octaviana. DIOMED VERDICT: The drop back to 7f will suit QUITE SPARKY in what is a very weak maiden. 2 horses only under 14/1 and one at odds on. Faith in the market? But is 2 places and a maiden and 3 one time outers and one debutant in opposition - their odds suggest they are not fancied. 540 WORCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Jump Up, 9/4 Grey Gold, 7/2 Misstaysia, 12/1 Robello, 20/1 Classicality, 25/1 Limbunya, Thomas Bell. DIOMED VERDICT: JUMP UP has shaped with promise on both starts and ought to be up to taking this. A bumper horse with placed form augurs well - if only there was one more runner to make this 3 places instead of 2. Looks a 3 horse race for those 2 places though , if the market is accurate - and this being a bumper we need to inspect the market nearer the race time. 750 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Captain John Nixon, 4/1 Captain Cool, 9/1 Apache Kid, Rose Alba, 10/1 Best Of Broadway, Helaku, 12/1 Frameit, 16/1 Business Bay, 20/1 Bethlehem, High Holborn, Sirri, 33/1 Tigranes The Great, 66/1 Larkrise Star, DIOMED VERDICT: CAPTAIN JOHN NIXON is thriving at present and is taken to beat Captain Cool. Another multiple winner priced to go in again.Price gap 8/11 - - - - 7/1 looks good but multiple winners ( as mentioned earlier) eventually lose, but does that mean unplaced if losing? Class 6 (0-65) race and I think we may have missed the boat as regards price gappers - would have been better to have been on the Captain for his 2nd win. 900 FAIRYHOUSE BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dance On By, Sindiyma, 4/1 Stephen´s Green, 5/1 Dearest Girl, 6/1 High Magic, 33/1 Instant Pur, 50/1 Avogadro, Mazellie, Sharpeye. A potential 5 horse race with 5 horses under 50/1 here. Dance on by of natural interest as the Aiden O'Brien runner ( with Murtagh waiting until last race of the night as well!!) Of course will need to view nearer to 9pm than 1030am!! 910 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Gulf President, 4/1 Carter, 6/1 Shy, 7/1 Spinning Waters, 10/1 Party Palace, 16/1 Croon, Swiss Art, Trysting Grove, 25/1 Berry Hill Lass, 33/1 Silken Promise, 66/1 Robbmaa. DIOMED VERDICT: GULF PRESIDENT and Andrew Heffernan won by 8l at Brighton and they look the obvious option in this largely unappealing line-up. When I was talking about potentially missing the boat in Captain John Nixon's race , this is a good example of what I meant. Gufl President won last time out and is a price gapper now in this class 6 0-60 handicap. He may just be beginning to put a run together. 920 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Requisite, 6/1 Lethal, Simple Rhythm, 8/1 Midnight Fantasy, Spinning Bailiwick, 10/1 Knightfire, Teen Ager, What Katie Did, 14/1 Avow, 16/1 Do More Business, 20/1 Loyal Royal DIOMED VERDICT: REQUISITE should get a decent gallop to chase and is taken to beat the potentially well-treated Simple Rhythm. Another price gapper today needs returning to nearer race time. SHORTLIST 5pm - Rosenborg v Alta - 1.11 - better odds than are availabvle at Bet365 whose site is ususally a good gauge for the accurate odds in obscure matches. This is Norwegian Cup and we are betting blind. No Norway in the World Cup - infact not too many Scandinavian representatives . Hope is this is the Rosenborg first team who, with home advantage, should win by 3 or 4. Question - enhanced bet? Halftime/fulltime 1.35 Over 2,5 goals is 1.29 and will, I suspect, be reliant on Rosenborg scoring 3 rather than any contribution from Alta. 1.11 ( infact 1.08 at Bet365) signals 3 goals minimum. Asian handicap of +2.5 and +3 backs up my thinking that this should be 3-0 or 4-0 1pm - Djokovic v Lu - 1.19 - I hope Lu is knackered after his exercions against Roddick. To face another seeded player should prove too much for him I hope. I am very taken by what looks an ultra safe lay of Lu 3-1 sets at 16 which is only 1.08. Djokovic is 1.19 to win this match and tradeable as ever. World ranking 3 v world ranking 82 4 tie breakers for Lu - and quite simply he won the right points at the right time so I am not overtly taken by his form against Roddick. 240 WORCESTER - Chesapeake has to complete of course ( and anyone watching the beginners chase last night saw Last Flight fall at the ,erm, last flight! This is a superb probability race though with only 5 horses under 50/1 here 1.15 to place. McCoy onboard and the horse has finished 2nd over course and distance last run which must count for something. Slight concern that the 2nd place looked to be down to jockey more than horse last time out "Chesapeake, placed a few times in novice/handicap company over hurdles, only finished as close as he did thanks to a bit of McCoy magic. The gelding was making hard work of it from some way out, but the champion jockey managedto force him into contention jumping the last before unable to find a telling turn of foot on the run-in." 450 PERTH - although I personally think that we may have missed the boat Beidh Tine Anseo is all red, and shortening all the time ( current 5/4) so is very much fancied to gain the 4 timer or at least run close this afternoon. 900 FAIRYHOUSE - Dance on By is the O'Brien representative and Murtagh waits til 9pm for the ride - need to revisit the market nearer the off. 910 CHEPSTOW - Gulf president might be at the start of a winning sequence in this class 6 handicap and is worth looking at again nearer race time. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 1pm - Djokovic v Lu - 1.19 for Djokovic looks a decent punt given that Lu's match against Roddick was won in 4 tie breakers ( and he lost the other set that was not a tie breaker) In those 4 tie breakers he won 3 and Roddick 1 but the very fact it took 4 tie breakers means that Lu got the right points at the right time. Playing another seeded player so quickly should prove, I am hoping , a hurdle too much. 5pm - Rosenborg v Alta - 1.11 - I am never squeamish about taking prices in Norwegian Cup games as they tend to be very accurate. The 1.11 won't be available for all as it is an illiquid market. I would consider over 2.5 goals here perhaps to back at 1.29 and trade out to make something like a 1.17 bet. Halftime/fulltime should come in with home advantage - can Rosenborg score 1 goal in the first at least to no reply Chesapeake is a superb probability bet - there are only 5 horses under 50/1 but 3 miles is a long way and the way the horse had to be galvanised last time does not fill me with enthusiasm. But he was 2nd last time over course and distance and has not fallen in his last 4 ( safe conveyance) Any horse selection today will come from the evening racing with the first race of interest at 9pm. -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94 Another

29/6

We have a one time out performer in a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden race here whose 1/2 is nowhere to be seen - now 1/7
But it is a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden and this is his 2nd run only , ever!!

The place only market is far too skinny and although the horse is expected to win comfortably , I think it is best to stick with place only betting.

*****ONE A DAY - I will be updating both the blog and email message at around 545pm - 6pm ( thye blog will be ready quicker than the email message as I have to rely on the email provider) The evening races look a lot safer and the probabilities greater than a one time outer in a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden ( caveat - I have personally backed him in the win only market, albeit to trade in running)*****


So please check the blog around 615pm as it will be updated before the email message





The early birds got the good prices on Rutterkin and I personally got 1.17 which was a bit of a shock given the 1.3 when I wrote the blog.
The Betfair SP interestingly enough was 1.26

The football shortlist of the shortlist came good as well as Brazil did not fail to score.

Federer won with ease at 1.12

The football is difficult to get an angle into today and the main game of interest will be Spain v Portugal.
I expect this to go the way of the Portugal v Brazil match given both sides' strong defences. I think laying Portugal/Portugal half time/fulltime may be the way to go here.

The Paraguay v Japan odds are similar to a number of recent games in which teams that are higher priced have scored first. paraguay are favourites here at 2.24 . The asian handicap is tight 0 and 0.5 .



Froma trading angle, perhaps this could be approached by taking a negative view on goals scored?

Tennis sees the Williams sisters (brothers?) dominate and both are reasonably priced to progress. Venus Williams today is the same price Federer was yesterday so I hope for the same result - a straight 2 set victory. As the shortest priced of the 2 sisters, she would be the selection today,


HORSE RACING
215 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Mayson, 11/2 Countrywide Flame, 7/1 Crimson Knot, 12/1 Glitter Bug, 20/1 Baby Driver, 66/1 Roman Ruler.

Already the favourite is quoted at 1/3 in the live betting market which augurs well.
This is, though, a 2 the place maiden over the minimum trip.

"very hard to oppose" - those trigger words used with Fealing Real the other day which usually signals a good placing, if not the win.

" appeals strongly as the type to win a similar event" was the synopsis of his sole run when a neck second ( and I always point out that his is as near as damn it to being a winner without being the winner!)

245 HAMITLON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wotashirtfull, 5/2 Artsu, 100/30 North Central, 4/1 Crimea, 50/1 Kristen Jane, 66/1 Balzarine.

DIOMED VERDICT: WOTASHIRTFULL has plenty to recommend him in this company and he looks the safest option this time.

This is now a 5 horse race with 2 places. One of the 5 is 40/1 and can hopefully be discounted leaving a 50/50 race ( 4 horses and 2 places) which is ripe for those who like the 50/50 chance

300 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Sumerian, 11/4 Bitter Fortune, 100/30 Plus Ultra, 8/1 Officer Lily, 14/1 Tower.

DIOMED VERDICT: SUMERIAN has the experience at today's trip and is taken to oblige over Bitter Fortune, with both horses representing trainers who do well with 3yos here.

Another race similar to the one above it. Officer Lily is quoted at 20/1 in the live market and can hopefully be discounted from any firm involvement in the finish. This leaves 3 horses likely to fight out the 2 places in this maiden race.

Bitter fortune hints at being the market mover here and has the excellent George Baker in the saddle.

415 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Smarty Sam, 5/2 Dubawi King, 6/1 Cat O´ Nine Tails, 8/1 Il Portico, 12/1 Vittachi, 16/1 Light The City, Star Of Kalani, 20/1 Barastar, 25/1 On The Right Path, Patricks Lodge.

DIOMED VERDICT: SMARTY SAM is still unexposed and appeals most in a race in which most are hard to fancy.

An interesting race in that there are only 3 horses under 10/1 and the one which appeals to me is current 2nd fav Dubawi King who has shown progressive placed form last twice.
We must remember that in dealing with class 6 0-60 handicaps these are not the most reliable of betting propositions.

630 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Tillietudlem, 7/2 Andorn, 5/1 Amir Pasha, They All Laughed, 6/1 Hi Dancer, 12/1 Without Equal, 33/1 Spruzzo, 66/1 Mceldowney.

DIOMED VERDICT: TILLIETUDLEM is going the right way on the Flat and can bounce back to winning ways after a blip at Beverley. You will recognise this horse from the last 3 times he has ran. I ignored him last time (thankfully as the winning sequence ended and he finished unplaced in a 4 runner race) But he is still running off a mark of 59 and this, for a 120 rated hurdler, somehow makes him still of interest. The straight 8 runners here and 3 places also allows some margin for error with his run. Now 7 runners, and 2 horses are 33/1 or bigger which should reduce those fighting for the 3 places down to 5. Who is Debra England the jockey? 700 THIRSK BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Battle Of Britain, 7/2 Volcanic Ash, 5/1 Irelandisuperman, 10/1 Lizzie, 25/1 Bernisdale, Sleights Boy, 33/1 Guinea Seeker, Pinotage. DIOMED VERDICT: Battle Of Britain does not look one for maximum confidence even in an uncompetitive maiden like this and it would be no surprise if VOLCANIC ASH left his debut effort well behind.

There has been an element of consistency about Battle of Britain and indeed about similarly profiled horses placing in similar races ( maidens)
Form of 3(of 6 thus unplaced), 3 and 2 augurs well. Visor today could light him up but does signal some distractions for the horse. Vulcanic Ash is the Johnston stalwart and was poor on debut, but up at a Scottish track , this scottish trainer may see him place?

In this 8 runner maiden, there are only 4 under 25/1 in the betting forecast which signals 4 horses for 3 places.
A race to return to nearer race time.

840 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Last Flight, 11/4 Tribe, 9/1 Indian Pipe Dream, 10/1 Job One, Kanad, 14/1 Gougane, 25/1 All Thyne Greats, 33/1 Cherokee Star, 40/1 Safe Catch.

DIOMED VERDICT: LAST FLIGHT can make her experience tell at the expense of Tribe.

Oh Lordy!! A beginners chase - Last flight the fancy here in the market and has run 2 chases last 2 races and placed well., and importantly, completed. Hint then of a safe conveyance!

SHORTLIST

215 HAMILTON - Crimson knot is the non runner leaving Mayson, wh was 1/3 when I started the blog, now at 1/7 or 1.18 in the win only market. In the place only market he is 1.04
It may be worth going with the win only market here given the huge drop in odds signifying extreme confidence.
No market movers amongst the others.
Yes it is a 2 year old 5 furlong maiden and this has to be acknowledged as tardiness is often punished.

300 BRIGHTON - this should be a 3 horse race for 2 places - I would side with Bitter Fortune to place here based on the fact he is current fav and has George Baker on board - no other reason - it is the simplest way for me to select among 3 horses who are very closely matched in the market.

630 THIRSK - this race gets better as a probability race now with another late non runner making this field 6 runners for 3 places -one horse is 14/1 and another 25/1 - can these be discounted - if so we will be left with a 4 horse race for 3 places and surely Tillidudlem can get in the first 3 in this kind of situation?
A race to return to nearer the off as the market is still in reaction to the second significant non runner which was the original 2nd favourite.

700 THIRSK - a race to very much return to nearer race time ( perhaps an update at 6pm to account for these 2 strong evening races - you know by now that making betting decisions some 7 hours before race time can expose us to unnecessary risks as a lot can happen between now and then.

FOOTBALL - I hope the Portugal v Spain game will replicate Portugal v Brazil and show few goals early on to allow trading. The bet I would take out of this game would be the lay of Portugal/Portugal in the halftime/fulltime market.
Devastating attacks but solid defences likely to dominate.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

215 HAMILTON - winner in MAyson's only start went on to finish 3rd in listed race at Newmarket and remember that Mayson was neck 2nd ( as near as damn it to being a winner without being a winner. Early 1.5 has disappeared as has early 1.28 and now 1.17 to win.
1.04 to place .
I would opt for the win only market here and take my cues from the huge shortening from 1/2 to 1/7 in the space of a morning.
Niggles? This is a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden and a favourite who has only had one run but do we ignore that and go with franked form, neck 2nd and extreme market confidence?

Laying Portugal/Portugal half time/fulltime at 9.4 pays an equivalent 1.11 and looks good here. Can Portugal really take the lead and hold on to it at half time, while continuing to hold on to it during the 2nd half, given the strength of this opposition?

EVENING RACES - 2 races at 630pm and 700pm both need looking at again nearer the off as they are becoming very good probability races indeed.

Perhaps they will offer a degree of safety instead of a one time out favourite in a 2 year old 5 furlong maiden?

27/6

Will Brazil score against Chile? They managed 7 goals in 2 meetings against them in qualifying.
Will Rutterkin place oas one of only 2 horses under 16/1 in the 330 Wolverhampton maiden ( despite both strong favourites being debutants on the all weather. 1.31 for Rutterkin and 1.09 to place for Toolain.

The unforeseen fall of Petronius Maximus has put me on the back foot today as I don't want another losing bet. The 330 Wolves sees 2 debutants on the all weather , although the betting market suggests full dominance of this maiden by these 2 horses.


Will Roger Federer continue his strong return to form that saw a 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 victory is his last round. 1.12 for that

***** ONE A DAY 330 WOLVERHAMPTON -BACK RUTTERKIN TO PLACE ONLY *****

Inside draw and one of only 2 horses under 16/1 and one of only 4 horses under 33/1, this looks an ideal opportunity for Rutterkin to place here at value odds when compared to the obvious Toolain.

The hope here is that this race is dominated by the first 2 in the betting. After all there are only 2 horses under 16/1 here and there are only 4 horses under 33/1. There is a risk that the front 2 will not handle the surface. But I cannot negate all risks.


Pure bad luck yesterday. Nothing to do with being the wrong selection as Petronius Maximus traded as low as 1.04 in running before amazingly losing his footing and crashing through the side rail.
I know it was 1.04 because I tried to lay off in running

Horse Racing > Curr 27th Jun : To Be Placed Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£) Petronius Maximus 1.15 158.00 Back 27-Jun-10 13:45 -158.00 Petronius Maximus 1.04 50.00 Lay 27-Jun-10 13:48 50.00 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: -158.00 Lay subtotal: 50.00 Market subtotal: -108.00 Commission : 0.00 Net Market Total: -108.00

I got £50 of my stake back, but took the hit. It's the same as a horse running out at the last - unforeseeable.
Luckily Johnny Murtagh walked away unscathed.

Elsewhere all of the other shortlist of the shortlists came in - 2 football bets and Fealing Real . The dutch in the Irish Derby came in and I wish I could have put that up as a one a day but was wary that a lot of people would be confused regarding the practicalities of placing such a bet manually ( I use Fairbot)

2 short priced teams today

3pm - Netherlands v Slovakia - 1.43 - shorter priced than the Argies yesterday are the Netherlands. They have been quietly effective and it is a good sign the Van Persie has got on the scoresheet. I would consider backing if Robben played from the start.
MATCH ODDS - lay Slovakia at odds of 11 ( equivalent of a 1.10 bet )
SLOVAKIA WIN A HALF - NO 1.24


730pm - BRazil v Chile - 1.57 - Chile simply cannot " do a Switzerland" and play defensively - it is not in their make up. Ignore the Portugal game as that was -guess what? - yes not a must win for the Brazilians. 1.57 this evening and they are surprisingly strong defensively the Brazilians, and as long as they play the first choice forward line, they should not lose this evening.
POSSIBLE MARKETS
BRAZIL TOTAL GOALS ONE OR MORE 1.18 ( same bet of course as Chile Clean sheet no)
CORNERS MATCH BET - LAY THE TIE 12 ( equivalent 1.09 bet)
CORRECT SCORE - LAY 0-0 at 11.5 ( equivalent 1.09 bet)
OVER 1.5 GOALS 1.38 to trade after first goal
TOTAL GOALS ONE GOAL OR MORE 1.09





TEnnis 1pm - Federer v Meltzer - 1.13 early round glitsches seem to have been stifled now as Federer is winning easily again. 1.13 is perfectly reasonable today . Likely to increase in running if Fed meets some resistance to allow for enhanced bet

A lady amateurs handicap and then a class 6 0-65 handicap start the day. I hope it is not the typical Monday fare.

245 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Silly Gilly, 7/2 Abu Dubai, Tomintoul Star, 9/2 Nurai, 8/1 Verity Lane, 12/1 Wiseman´s Diamond, 16/1 Rare Malt, 100/1 Woodhouse Mill.

DIOMED VERDICT: Interesting to see if the money comes again for Nurai down in trip, but SILLY GILLY looks a more solid proposition. REading Diomed, and yes the money has come for Nurai who is currently 3/1 and all red signalling the price has been consistently shortening. 300 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Yungaburra, 5/2 Chjimes, 7/2 Romantic Queen, 13/2 Best One, 8/1 Pressed For Time, 16/1 Triskaidekaphobia, 28/1 Southwark Newshawk, 40/1 Mr Rooney, 66/1 Riggs. DIOMED VERDICT: Yungaburra is clear best on adjusted ratings but it's hard to be confident he will run to his current mark. Assuming that's the case, ROMANTIC QUEEN may be able to reverse recent form with Chjimes in receipt of 10lb.

Here we have a 5 furlong seller in the all weather! Yes the poor race types continue. This is an interesting race though as there are only 4 horses under 16/1 here in an 8 runner field. Chijmes is the horse for money at this moment in time.

315 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Premier Clarets, 3/1 Drawing Board, 11/2 Defence Council, 7/1 Planet Waves, 10/1 Minch Man, 16/1 Hortensia, 25/1 Saucy Buck.

DIOMED VERDICT: Drawing Board has done everything asked of him and it is not hard to forgive Planet Waves his Royal Ascot failure in view of the way his maiden win has worked out, but PREMIER CLARETS looks the one to be on. His Epsom Listed third may not be the most solid form but it was still a good run given he refused to settle and he is probably capable of better again.

Premier Clarets is the market mover here into odds on status now. 6 runners left and 2 places

" hard to beat eased in grade" says Diomed and it was with words like this that I chose Fealing Real yesterday.

330 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Toolain, 7/2 Rutterkin, 20/1 Lexi´s Boy, Merjaan, 25/1 Askaud, Maratib, 33/1 Complicate, Green With Envy, 40/1 Diplomasi, 50/1 Caledonia Prince, Elusive Vine, 66/1 Major Return.

DIOMED VERDICT: Rutterkin ought to be well up to winning a race like this but meets a potentially smart sort in TOOLAIN who would have made a winning debut at Sandown but for swerving and unseating Frankie Dettori close home.

After what happened to Petronius Maximus , you'd have thought I would want to swerve a horse on the flat who does not finish. Here Toolain would have won his maiden but for swerving and unseating Dettori close home. Surely lightening does not strike twice?

"it was just greeness that saw him swerve left" says the analysis of that first race.

There are only 2 horses under 20/1 here at time of writing so surely Rutterkin would be the value horse to place ?

400 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Orpenindeed, 7/2 Southandwest, 6/1 Flores Sea, 7/1 Fol Liam, 9/1 Landucci, 10/1 By Command, 14/1 Ravi River, 33/1 Johnston´s Kiwi, Kinigi, Talamahana, 40/1 Bold Hawk, Ginger Jalapeno.

DIOMED VERDICT: ORPENINDEED has plenty going for him in an uncompetitive claimer. Southandwest has a bit to find with the selection at the weights but should still be thereabouts.

Perhaps not the best betting mediums are claimers, but orpenindeed has been keeping better company - class 3, and 2 handicaps - this is a class 6 claimer.

500 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Whispering Spirit, 7/2 Dream Win, 13/2 Novillero, 10/1 Golden Ratio, Pab Special, 14/1 Green Passion, 16/1 Emperor´s Well, 20/1 Aragall, 25/1 Frontline Phantom, Star Addition, 40/1 Da Bomber.

DIOMED VERDICT: WHISPERING SPIRIT (nap) should take plenty of beating given she's unpenalised for last week's comfortable success at Kempton and Amy Ryan is able to utilize her useful 5lb claim this time.

Only 3 horses under double figure odds but hold on - look at Aragall's price in the betting forecast and tell me why he is 3rd fav at 4/1 in the live betting market?

Interesting Diomed comment " market should guide on British Debut" - not run since October 2009, this looks to be fancied today in this lowly class 6 grade handicap - Tiny Culhane quite an eyecatching booking too in the saddle.

710 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Fazbee, 4/1 Timeteam, 9/2 Frank Street, 7/1 Feeling Fragile, 15/2 Bush Master, 10/1 Equinity, 12/1 Desert Pride, 14/1 Baby Rock, 16/1 Sovereignty, 20/1 Roybuoy, 25/1 Elusive Ronnie.

DIOMED VERDICT: TIMETEAM comes with risks but should go close if breaking on terms. The main dangers are Frank Street and Fazbee. It is very much early doors in the life of this betting market given the race time but Fazbee is strongly fancied as I write 7/4 - - - - - - - -- 6/1 740 WINDSOR BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Hooligan Sean, 9/4 Blackdown Boy, 7/2 Zip Lock, 9/1 Bidruma, 12/1 Master Mylo, 14/1 Mushy Peas, 20/1 Compton Way, 25/1 Delaware Dancer, 33/1 Picansort, 50/1 Shamarlane, 66/1 Bilbaray, 100/1 Scottish Glen, Trading Nation. DIOMED VERDICT: HOOLIGAN SEAN has an official rating of 83 and may be able to get the better of Blackdown Boy and Zip Lock. Carrying on the theme of significant non runners which pervaded last week, the 3rd and 4th provisional favourites in the betting forecast are non runners - surely this makes life a lot easier for Hooligan Sean and Blackdown Boy? This is a maiden and needs closer inspection nearer race time. 755 MUSSELBURGH BETTING FORECAST: Evs Miss Mediator, 5/1 Alben Star, Master Macho, 10/1 Earl Wild, 12/1 Golden Taurus, 16/1 Fleet Captain, Marina Belle, 40/1 Georgian Silver, 50/1 Eilean Mor, 100/1 Gartsherrie. DIOMED VERDICT: A decent looking maiden for the track but one that should be well within the capabilities of York debut third MISS MEDIATOR. Mister Macho is well held on the York form but is better than that and may be the best each-way alternative.

Interesting market mover in 16/1 Fleet captain now 7/1 in places.


SHORTLIST
BRAZIL TOTAL GOALS ONE OR MORE 1.18 ( same bet of course as Chile Clean sheet no)
OVER 1.5 GOALS 1.38 to trade after first goal - this bet has both teams working for us and, at 1.38, I would trade here

Tennis 1pm - Federer v Meltzer - 1.12 - down from 1.13 earlier. HAs a good chance of collecting as Federer seems to have got over the early round jitters. 6-2 , 6-4 , 6-2 last round signals a turnaround. Fed has won the first set last 2 matches now after his 1st round near exit, and will be very tradeable if winning the first set again.

330 WOLVES - Toolain and Rutterkin are set to dominate this maiden . Toolain is 1.09 to place and Rutterkin 1.3 to place at the moment. The value, naturally , lies in Rutterkin and any bet on him assumes these 2 will dominate the finish.
Toolain is 1.44 to win and is very tradeable .
Both horses are all weather debutants

740 WINDSOR - given 3rd and 4th favourites are non runners it is worth returning to this race nearer to 740 than midday!!

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
730pm - BRAZIL V CHILE - Brazil Total Goals 1 or more Back at 1.18
Or Chile Clean Sheet NO 1.18
I just feel it would be a shock if Brazil failed to score in a match this World Cup given their forward line and the Chilean propensity to attack. The Portugeuse match was pretty much a dead rubber and included a significant change in personnel so can be discounted.Brazil have the head to head advantages over Chile in World Cup qualifying.


Federer v Meltzer - 1.12 - I would back Fed and hope he wins the first set to consider an out trade after that - he has won the last 2 sets and breezed through his last round match 6-2, 6-4 , 6-2.

330 Wolverhampton - do we opt for the safety of Toolain ( the perceived safety of Toolain after his antics last race) or take a risk with Rutterkin -the only other horse under 20/1 here. Rutterkin is the value bet here at 1.3 to place
The market looks like this
2/5
7/2
16/1
25/1
33/1

Surely with only 4 horses under 33/1 , Rutterkin has a great chance of finishing in the first 4.

The concern with this race is the fact that the 2 market leaders are making their all weather debuts at Wolves this afternoon and given that Toolain was green on his sole earlier run, how is he going to cope with this different surface and possible kick back?