30/11

Kazbow would have been the choice yesterday for the one a day -hope you sniffed it out yourself at Kempton.

Horse Racing > : To Be Placed > Kazbow

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Bets

Selection		Odds	Stake (£)	Liability (£)	Bid type	Placed	Matched (GMT)	Profit/loss (£)
Kazbow		1.12	154.55		Back	29-Nov-09 16:18	29-Nov-09 16:18	18.55
Kazbow		1.12	45.45		Back	29-Nov-09 16:18	29-Nov-09 16:18	5.45

Don't forget Inter Milan at home - unbeaten again yesterday and I laid Fiorentina at 7.6 , around a 1.15 shot.
Football first
OB v Koge - 1.23 the home side
Top versus 2nd bottom side.
unbeaten at home but have had some tight games in a league of only 12 teams - 2 1-0's and 2 1-1's at home and one 2-1 at home from 7 home matches show that this team don't lose at home but may not be worth backing at 1.23
Koge have drawn 2 away but been royally spanked by Kopenhagen and Brondby ( remember OB are top of the league ,)
This is in running so I would back OB and hope they score first, then trade out , given the fact they have had so many tight games

100 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Den Of Iniquity, 7/4 Numide, 4/1 The Jazz Musician, 14/1 Maximix, 20/1 She´s Humble, 25/1 Premier Bleu, 33/1 Orana Conti.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to draw much encouragement from Numide's chase debut recently and this ought to go the way of DEN OF INIQUITY.

Heavy ground here today b ut a probability bet for place only backers - should involve 3 horses at the head of the market unless the ground finds them out. 1.45 to place in a very illiquid market
Den has won twice on heavy and it is always key when this have this ground to side with those proven on the surface. Normally, I would strike a line through heavy meetings

120 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Working Title, 7/4 I Have Dreamed, 11/4 Kanad, 25/1 Safe Investment, 100/1 Musical Weld, Vogarth.

an

DIOMED VERDICT: Softening ground could be a cause for concern with Kanad and Working Title but I HAVE DREAMED should be untroubled and has the edge in experience.

Yet another probability race and a concern that all 3 principles are in the same boat. Only really ever run over good to soft and the suspicion today is the ground with be softer rather then good

Working title is now odds on under Geraghty for Henderson - the partnership behind Punchestowns a few days ago. 1.29 to place and again the markets have not properly formed with 1.37 on the lay side indicating the back price should increase as the market becomes more active

130 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Quartano, 7/2 Lord Singer, 11/2 Alteranthela, 10/1 Ready Or Not, 16/1 Red Anchor.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUARTANO sets a clear standard on the form of his Plumpton win on heavy last time and should be hard to beat under a penalty.

Fav now 1/3 and winner on heavy last time out. I do like to see betting forecast prices battered in -again only 2 places means we have to be spot on here - horse is also a "hard to beat " selection - simply put you see the words " hard to beat" in Diomed's verdict and Spotliht mentions "should take some stopping" 1.12 to place1.35 to win

250 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 The Polomoche, 3/1 Teddy´s Reflection, 12/1 Marc Of Brilliance, 33/1 Art Gallery, Harvey May, 50/1 No More Punts.

DIOMED VERDICT: Teddy's Reflection is expected to make a better chaser but he has a big gap to bridge with THE POLOMOCHE on hurdle ratings. Both go well fresh.

2/5 betting forecast price now 1/5 in the live market -6 runners - 3 are 50/1 or bigger ideally leaving 3 other principles fighting for 2 places 1.13 to place

310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ravi River, 8/1 Desert Mile, Jord, 10/1 Sendreni, 12/1 Rosie Says No, Smalljohn, 16/1 Obe Gold, 20/1 Charlie Delta, Sir George, 50/1 Madame McManus, 100/1 Seren Arian, Spiders Tern.

DIOMED VERDICT: RAVI RIVER is a fair sort to be running in sellers and he can capitalise on what looks a good opening. Significant price gapper albeit in lowly selling company.Sir George and CHarlie Delta possible movers here 1.22 to place - nice price if we can have faith in this price gap SHORTLIST A difficult day with 2 places only generally available and heavy ground at one venue and officially good to soft at the other venue which threatens to become softer 130 FOLK - Quartano mentioned only because it is a " hard to beat " selection and faces only 3 now vying for 2 places. A clear round and faith in Diomed's confidence should ensure a place - red anchor is still in Betfair's market but not in the racing post betting forecast website so a concern this may be still 5 runners. 1.11 to place leaves little margin for error for a horse under a penalty in heavy ground 250 FAKENHAM - like Quartano, another horse here whose betting forecast price is significantly shorter in the live betting, Polomoche has 6 rivals, 3 of whom are 50/1 or bigger and, all things being equal, should play no part. 1.13 to place is a reasonable price given the horse should only have 2 to beat to place - newcomer to chase fences so a slight concern there but has the right jockey onboard who brought home the bacon on similarly profiled Punchestowns. 310 WOLVES - Ravi River is the best and most prominent price gapper of the day and has the advantage that there are no ground concerns on the all weather - plies his trade on the all weather and in class 4 and class 3 handicaps. Drop to selling company today is the reason behind the price gap Concern this is a seller and jockey has a poor win and place strike rate - SJ Craine - I don't know much about him.1.22 to place is the kind of price I would expect of a price gapper though. OB v Koge is an intriguing game. OB not reknowned for spanking teams at home, BUT away side have been spanked by 2 of the top 5 sides away from home and OB are top of the league, so using my system based on looking at teams similarly positioned in the league, then we would expect, at the very least, the 1.18 for over 1.5 goals to offer us something. As mentioned at the start of the blog, far too many draws, 1-0's at home mean that backing OB or backing over 1.5 goals would only be done with trading in mind. ONE A DAY No rock solids today for me in the "Big Bucks" category. Will heavy ground and the penalty affect Quartano? How will the Polomoche cope with chase fences for the first time ? Why is Ravi River running in a selling stakes race ? AS you can see there are opportunities today but there are question marks which don't make these opportunities rock solid. For me, I have found the " hard to beat" selections tend to run very well indeed which brings Quartano in. I have also found that betting forecast prices which are significantly shorter in the live market are a precursor to a good run - which brings the Polomoche in. And when horses are significantly price gapped like Ravi River, well they do tend to place NEGATIVES? Ground concerns - I hate betting in heavy ground regardless of pervious form in the ground. I don't like newcomers to the bigger obstacles too. And I don't like sellers, by definition the horses are not quite as reliable as Denman. I also don't know S J Craine sufficiently well, and his all weather record is not the best. LEaving a difficult decision to make today. Instinct tells me a no bet day and wait for the more solid options which will present themselves as the week unfolds, but were I to play, then faith perhaps in Quartano as a "hard to beat" selection, under strong connections and a winner in heavy , against 3 horses only for 2 places. Just hope I have made the right choice and don't rue heavy ground racing

28/11

Job done yesterday with Punchestowns and PSV - 1-1 within 30 mins

Another enhanced bet when 4/11 PSV went 2-1 down!! Nice little profit there

1245 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: EvensF Donnas Palm, 11/10 Mourad, 8/1 Time Electric, 14/1 City Meaning, 16/1 Rotorua.

50/50 race now with Time Electric out. Mourad is the Mullins horse and they are hot at the moment - only 2 places 1.16 to place but heavy ground

110 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Spinning Bailiwick, 9/2 Elusive Ronnie, 11/2 Head To Head, 15/2 Colombard, 12/1 Equinity, 20/1 Boundless Applause, 25/1 Native Dame, Tricky Trev, 33/1 Battimoore, Commandingpresence, Davids Mark,

DIOMED VERDICT: A 6lb penalty covers only a fraction of the improvement SPINNING BAILIWICK appeared to show in midweek and she must be hard to beat if lasting the extra furlong.

Price gapper in a class 7 handicap here could place as per my price gapper in a lowly handicap system 1.3 to place

135 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Big Buck´s, 6/1 Duc De Regniere, 10/1 Nacarat, 14/1 Lough Derg, 16/1 Blazing Bailey, 20/1 Souffleur, 50/1 No Refuge.

DIOMED VERDICT: This ought to be fairly straightforward for last season's champion staying hurdler BIG BUCK'S, who could be followed home by Duc De Regniere.

Walsh onboard and 1/3 in such a top class race should relay confidence 1.15 to place

150 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Binocular, 7/4 Solwhit, 10/1 Sublimity, 16/1 Go Native, 20/1 Al Eile, 50/1 Blue Bajan, Won In The Dark.

DIOMED VERDICT: It's hard to envisage the finish not being fought out principally by BINOCULAR and Solwhit. Solwhit is capable of producing a devastating burst of speed in testing conditions but, unless the rain unexpectedly arrives in torrents, conditions will favour Nicky Henderson's rising star, who is taken to make amends for his narrow defeat in the Champion Hurdle in March.

The fighting fifth should be between 2 horses, all things being equal, and it is that confidence that Bin and Sol will be the 2 which would be the only reason I would contemplate a place only bet - only 2 places 1.29 and 1.54 the front 2 to place

200 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Great Endeavour, 11/8 Jaunty Journey, 10/1 Its A Classic, 66/1 Ringsend Rose.

DIOMED VERDICT: GREAT ENDEAVOUR can make a winning start over fences on the back of his excellent effort in defeat at Cheltenham.

Interesting race with one clear outsider - can't find the place market

225 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Quantitativeeasing, 8/1 St Devote, 10/1 Wave Power, 14/1 Papa Caruso, 16/1 Cocoa Key, Mr Syntax, 20/1 Beauchamp, Eyre Square, 25/1 Sole Witness, 33/1 Patriot, Too Cool To Fool, 50/1 Arc Warrior, Shadrack, Super Ally, 100/1 Great Vintage, Mister Grady.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUANTITATIVEEASING looked a bit special winning a Punchestown bumper in April and there will be some long faces if he fails to make a successful transition to hurdling, making his debut at a relatively modest level.

They expect from Quantitativeeasing under McCoy 1.13 to place

240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Denman, 6/1 Barbers Shop, 13/2 What A Friend, 8/1 Killyglen, 9/1 Cappa Bleu, 14/1 State Of Play, 16/1 Ballyfitz, Gone To Lunch, Nenuphar Collonges, Snowy Morning, 28/1 My Will, 33/1 An Accordion, Kornati Kid, Niche Market, Offshore Account, War Of Attrition, 50/1 Joe Lively, Mon Mome, 66/1 Chelsea Harbour,

DIOMED VERDICT: Victory for Denman would be hugely popular but better value may be obtained with another previous winner in STATE OF PLAY.

HEart more than head here for Denman but if competitive, will be a nice place price 2.04 to place and 4 places

320 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Passkey, 7/4 Mustakmil, 9/2 Mile High Lad, 10/1 Peponi, 20/1 Cativo, Madame McManus, 33/1 Big Sur, Iron Master, 66/1 Espresso Steps,

DIOMED VERDICT: In an uncompetitive event MUSTAKMIL is taken to beat Passkey.

322 form is promising for place only 1.18 to place

FOOTY
1pm Shaktar 1.19 - only match odds avaiable and not in running
Werder v Wolfsburg - over 1.5 goals 1.18 and tradeable

ONE A DAY - time is running out so I'll chance Big Bucks at 1.15 to place -again only 2 to place

27/11

Irish Music was available at 1.13 to place, but went off at 1.06 allowing a free trade for the early birds. Again I am frustrated by my cautious attitude as everything placed yesterday. I did get involved with Ernst Blofeld in running at 1.18 to place as his jumping was exemplary and it did not look like he would make any jumping errors. The advantage of in running betting!

Again the tennis offered a good tradeable on Federer, laying him initially and very happy with the Del Potro break early.

100 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Mille Chief, 11/4 Royal Mix, 14/1 Corredor Sun, 16/1 Prince Pippin, 20/1 Beat The Devil, Icy Colt, Me Voici, 66/1 Princess Soraya.

DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL MIX could prove the value on his hurdling debut.

FAv out opens things up to Royal Mix.3 places and 1.13 to place in this 7 runner race makes this a good place opportunity for the Nicholls/Walsh combo

120 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Troopingthecolour, 4/1 Shakalaka, 5/1 Capeability, 8/1 In Secret, 14/1 Try Ca4t, 100/1 Northern Genes.

DIOMED VERDICT: This should be the day TROOPINGTHECOLOUR raises a winning flag.

A place backers dream this Trooping - 2nd last 4 starts -only 2 places today though but should be competitive 1.16 to place

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Jarrow, 9/2 Master Of Dance, 7/1 Transfixed, 14/1 Ramamara, 33/1 During The War.

DIOMED VERDICT: Mark Johnston has found a good opportunity for JARROW to take another step up the ladder.

Woud prefer to see Mr Fannin onboard, but Fairley is good enough and Jarrow for Mark Johnston could be relied upon to place - only 2 places 1.11 to place

240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Punchestowns, 5/1 Dee Ee Williams, 6/1 Red Admiral, 33/1 Martys Mission.

DIOMED VERDICT: PUNCHESTOWNS found only Big Buck's too good for him as a staying hurdler and that form is miles better than anything achieved by today's rivals.

Some of the Cheltenham big boys making a return -1.16 to place is a big price given there is one clear outsider and 2 places

345 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Bellvano, 3/1 Henry King, 7/1 Prince Buster, Tocca Ferro, 9/1 Black Jack Blues, 14/1 Cois Farraig, 16/1 Extreme Conviction, 20/1 Island Jim, 25/1 Running Upthathill, 33/1 Badger Foot, 40/1 Cedar Falls, Queenstown Lad, 100/1 Also Jo, Shannon Bob,

DIOMED VERDICT: Henry King should not be long in winning over hurdles but he looks to be taking on an exciting prospect in dual bumper winner BELLVANO.

Only 4 under 25/1 should be the ones to focus on

FOOTBALL
De Graafshaff v Harlem - 1.27 - we saw with Cambuur this time last week that the expected avalanche of goals did not arrive. I would expect goals again as De GRaafshaff 6 of the bottom 7, (Harlem are one of the 7 lower teams) convincingly at home.
Harlem has lost 3-2 and 4-1 against the top 2 sides ( De Graaf are 3rd in the Dutch 2nd division)
NOT IN RUNNING
Anderlecht v kortrijk - 1.26 - unbeaten at home-last 3 home games by 2 clear goals - kortrijk can be difficult buggers away from home, having drawn 5 ,lost 1 and won 1 including a score draw away to 2nd side Club Brugge - Anderecht, though, have beaten Kortreijk at their gaff 2-0 which fits in to the 2-0 recent home wins. A tricky game to weigh up given the away side's impressive away form (or rather their ability to NOT get beaten away) - IN RUNNING
Sparta Rotterdam v PSV - unbeaten away from home and the only draws coming against top 5 sides, - fc twente beat Sparta 2-0 at home but SParta did beat Feyenoord 2-1 at home. I would look to a goals bet here rather than PSV as there could be a draw here.

SHORTLIST
The first 4 races all look very solid as place only potentials and for me the standout, probability wise, is Punchestowns is 1.15 to place and there is a clear 33/1 outsider leaving 3 fighting for 2 places.
NEGATIVES - not run since Cheltenham in March - not run over chase fences where nearest 2 rivals have
POSITIVES - Barry Geraghty onboard for Nicky Henderson. hurdling form is simply standout and a clear round should suffice.
1.2 over 1.5 goals in the PSV game has a chance of coming in with free scoring PSV

ONE A DAY
Either of the 2 mentioned above is good - the footy of course has no ground concerns or no debutants over obstacles. So Punchestowns at the odds of 1.15 / 1.16 looks the best probability race of the day but today I will definitely be following the racing and mentioned races above in the hope of doing and Ernst Blofeld like yesterday

26/11

Carbon copy of their game against Racing - 1-0 , early goal from Higuan. No Ronny starting meant no goals bet for me. Aeroplane -I took the 1.06 and he won with ease - rubbish odds but keeps the run going.
Enhanced bet? How about laying Hull 3-0 up at half time at 1.06?

Soccer > Hull v Everton : Match Odds

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Hull	*	1.36	235.14	Back		83.75
Hull		1.06	300.00	Lay	25-Nov-09 20:47	-18.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	83.75
					Lay subtotal:	-18.00
					Market subtotal:	65.75
					Commission @ 4.4%:	2.89
					Net Market Total:	62.86

My outlay for this bet? £18 liability. Everton scored 2 and I got out at 1.36 ( could have got out at bigger odds but was umming and ahhing about whether to consider a 3rd Everton goal)
£62 profit for a £18 stake - nice
Enhanced bet Man Utd? In my articles I mention fancying the team before the off. This was effectively a dead rubber so when Besiktas scored, it didn't realy matter to United. That said, I did get involved in the 90th minute when the magic Fergie ability to distort time allowed 5 minutes more in the match.

1255 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Riverside Theatre, 7/4 Lady An Co, 7/1 Calusa Crystal, Captain Americo, 16/1 Al Co, 25/1 Gibbonsgrove.

DIOMED VERDICT: This should rest between Riverside Theatre, the clear pick on official hurdle ratings, and LADY AN CO, who has chasing experience and gets a handy weight allowance.

Under Barry Geraghty, Riverside is now odds on. Another newcomer over chase fences but strong connections 1.37 to place relays small field and ground - 2nd fav has great weight allowance

155 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ernst Blofeld, 7/2 Another Display, Our Hero, 7/1 Rico Hombre, 33/1 Naval Hero, Phoenix Des Mottes, Young Yozza.

DIOMED VERDICT: A return to his best should see ERNST BLOFELD very hard to beat granted a clear round on his chasing debut.

3 can hopefuly be discounted here and Ernst has those trigger words from Diomed " hard to beat" -not run since March and 2 places is the niggle 1.31 to place and only 2 places

250 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sahrati, 9/2 Duke Of Lucca, 5/1 Synthe Davis, 8/1 Henry Hook, Scandal, 10/1 Exolthir, 12/1 Comehomequietly, 20/1 Spent, 33/1 Star King, 100/1 Galloise, Red Leaves.

DIOMED VERDICT: SAHRATI looks the one to be with after a pleasing hurdling debut at Bangor.

Alan King's are generally running well and Sahrati could be a good placer 1.17 to place

345 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Oscar Whisky, 6/1 Amroth Bay, 13/2 Eight Palms, 7/1 Rock On Ruby, 8/1 Tail Of The Bank, 10/1 Court In Motion, 12/1 Penylan Star, 14/1 Midnight Prayer, 16/1 Pere Blanc, 20/1 Citrus Mark, Medicine Man, 50/1 Real Tempo.

DIOMED VERDICT: OSCAR WHISKY could put his experience to good use.

2nd fav is out and Oscar is well thought of and a price gapper - not a jumps race but a bumper, and a word about the importance of the market with bumpers 1.18 to place

400 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Irish Music, 9/4 The Wee Chief, 11/2 Ride A White Swan, 12/1 Cullybackey, 16/1 Lunaticus, 25/1 Bella Fighetta, Oxbridge,

DIOMED VERDICT: IRISH MUSIC sets a fair standard and can take advantage of a more straightforward opportunity than last time.

3 places is great to see and makes this a race for the shortlist 1.13 to place

430 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Total Impact, 11/4 Misaro, 7/1 All About You, 10/1 Piazza San Pietro, 16/1 Peopleton Brook, 33/1 Desert Dust, Mr Rio, Valentino Swing, 50/1 Tadlil, 66/1 Brazilian Brush.

DIOMED VERDICT: bMISARO is 1-3 over C&D with his win coming in impressive fashion and he can upset likely favourite Total Impact over this trip.

Saw with Aeroplane that an extremely strongly fancied favourite in a claimer looks worth following - Total impact the one? 1.22 to place

FOOTBALL
Napoli the shortest priced of those involved in the Italian Cup 1.32
TENNIS - with all of the big boys playing each other, surely trading is the way to go. The fluctuations in the Nadal v Davydenko match had traders drooling

SHORTLIST
155 UTTOXETER - follow Diomed's confidence in Ernst Bloefeld? Only 2 places though
345 NEWBURY - Oscar Whiskey is the mover in the bumper but we are at a disadvantage making a decision now as these bumpers revolve around the market
400 KEMPTON - Irish Music is one of 3 under 20/1 and 1.13 to place and 3 places - looks a great probability race

ONE A DAY
Looks to be Irish Music at time of writing - only 4 to beat to place in the 1st 3

25/11

Arsenal were the right choice yesterday with a 2-0 win and a welcome 1.31 which, for me and one a day, is a BIG price!!
Again, the horses proved difficult but following the market brought up a couple of likely selections in Sunnyhillboy and Behindcloseddoors but I stayed with the Arse .
Again today, ground is a concern so my focus may be on the football again, so a quick look at likely contenders tonight.
2pm Anorthosis v Ayia Napa 1.08 - Cypriot cup game - only match odds available and not in running
1230 - Croatian Cup sees Dinamo Zagreb 1.25 away from home - again not in running but known by reputation for goals. Concern that Croatian games may be open to fixing
Bayern Munich 1.26 this evening at home against Maccaibi Haifa - it's out of Bayern's hands but they do need to do their part and win this evening. Concern that they have not won at home in 3 ( those with glasses half full will see this as a sequence that can end -they are priced to end it at least)
If backing Bayern, I would have liked Robben and Ribery to both play, at least Ribery is out and is a big blow.
Low on confidence, this is another of those Liverpool type games of yesterday BUT motivation is a factor for Bayern - they simply must win and achieve a better result than Bordeaux against Juventus.
Man Utd 1.38 - no real motivation here as United have qualified and Besiktas can't. United fielding the nippers and may be an over 1.5 goal game to trade rather than back an unmotivated United. That said, Fergie is a winner !
No wonder Real are 1.14 as Ronny is due to return against FC Zurich. Watching Real though, it is a head scratcher how they have been travelling - too much baggage I think. Should be goals here and with that famous dodgy defence, Zurich could actually score. Looks the banker of the night for me as long as the unreliable Real play Ronaldo - 1.11 over 1.5 goals.
Good news is that Real NEED to win. This will either be a rout or a nerve jangling 1-0!!

1220 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cruise Director, 9/4 Heraldry, 11/4 Laborec, 10/1 Railway Park, 16/1 Calfraz, 33/1 Carlton Mac, Karathaena, Mistral De La Cour, Our Spring.

DIOMED VERDICT: The consistent CRUISE DIRECTOR can follow up a recent win in similar company.

4 to concentrate on here? Soft ground means we need to look for horses proven on soft and heavy - Heraldry fits the bill here as proven in heavy and soft Cruise is 1.28 to place , Heraldry 1.58 to place

1230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Todber, 9/2 Partner, 6/1 Cheap Thrills, Titus Gent, 8/1 Mambo Spirit, 10/1 Agnes Love, Suhayl Star, 14/1 Dakota Hills, Doctor Hilary, Yankee Storm, 33/1 Miss Hollybell.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHEAP THRILLS ran well against a pace bias last time and is taken to beat Mambo Spirit.

Mambo now 9/4 and all red - money for the horse? 1.62 to place - take a risk and follow the gamble? Yankee storm another bi mover into 4/1

120 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cunning Clarets, 7/1 Birch Hill Bedouin, Kosta Brava, Waldo Winchester, 8/1 Beamazed, 10/1 Lightening Rod, 12/1 Boyoboy, 14/1 Donny Briggs, Jack The Gent, 20/1 Alfie Bet, Another Dark Rum, Flash Harriet, Strawgate, 25/1 Not Talking, 33/1 Papa Drew, 66/1 Landofgreenginger.

DIOMED VERDICT: Bumper winner BIRCH HILL BEDOUIN showed a good attitude to win his bumper last time and, although it wasn't the strongest of contests, he is the type to do well over jumps.

13/8 - - - - 7/1 the fav in the live market but is a debutant to hurdling 1.43 to place

130 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Aeroplane, 6/1 Rioliina, 10/1 Flawed Genius, Monashee Rock, 20/1 Ever Cheerful, 66/1 Double Valentine, 100/1 Bluebird Chariot, Incy Wincy.

DIOMED VERDICT: AEROPLANE is not the most straightforward but, in this company, hard to avoid.

Nice opportunity - no obstacles or ground concerns but one concern is the beret wearing Frank onboard who could get a horse in a one horse race unplaced . The straight 8 runners here 1.32 win and 1.07 place

325 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Magot De Grugy, 9/4 Dusk, 4/1 Guitar Rory, 10/1 Afistfullofpebbles, Massini Sunset, 12/1 Mr Prickle.

DIOMED VERDICT: MAGOT DE GRUGY will relish conditions and can defy this likeable mark.

Dusk a non runner and MAgot has form on soft and heavy which is great - 2 places though. Incidentally, look at Dusk's form - 3 wins and then pulled up. I laid him yesterday as it's douby hard to carry on winning when you are in handicap chases and handicap hurdles in soft ground!! Something to look for this jumps season
1.34 to place in an illiquid market
900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mourad, 6/1 Great Wisdom, 7/1 Funatfuntasia, 10/1 Chapter Nine, Love Pegasus, Monteriggioni, 12/1 Ebaziyan, 14/1 Grantsville, Western Rose, 16/1 Balakan, Lesoto Diamond, 20/1 Inquisitive Look, Silent Wind, 25/1 Tajweed,

Mourad is a name I know from somewhere but can't place it at the moment - price gapper for the all conquerin Mullins yard 1.25 to place in an iliquid market

SHORTLIST

Chance on Dinamo Zagreb away in the Cup? Only match odds and not in running - would have preferred in running as there should be goals
Bayern 1.26 - need the win and I always like to back teams with motivation to win and priced to win.Big concern is lack of confidence and home form, BUT poor home form could be halted with a win.
Real Madrid 1.14 to win looks good - motivated to win tonight, 1.11 over 1.5 goals -1.36 for over 2.5 goals would be a great tradeable bet this evening, even more so with Ronaldo returning(if he does this evening)
The clues are there - +2.5 goals handicap market and correct score 2 market. BUT fresh in my mind is the poor performance at shorter odds against Alcorcan. I would love to see Higuan play as well as he has goalscoring form.
130 LINGFIELD - Aeroplane should win with ease - chance at 1.32 the win market? Concern is the jockey as he has engineered miraculous unplaced runs in the past. 1.07 for the safer 3 places
325 CHEPSTOW - magot de grugy is good in conditions but only 2 places - 1.34 to place
ONE A DAY
Aeroplane is utra safe I would suggest as long as the jockey tries on him.The straight 8 and 3 places make this an ideal place only race albeit at bad odds.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.36 looks to have an excellent chance of coming in , or at least being tradeable with Real needing to win, and the possible return of Ronaldo. Real win market at 1.14 looks safer
Bayern should win this evening at 1.26 - Maccaibi's recent 1-0 defeats show they can be tough to break down but 3-0 was the recent head to head

SO, solid looks to be Aeroplane - yes crap odds and "um Betty" onboard-take the medicine and move on to tomorrow - no ground or obstacles concerns
BETTER ODDS - Real 1.14 win and 1.11 over 1.5 goals look very safe ,even better Real 1.36 over 2.5 goals to trade only(I would entertain over 2.5 goals if Ronaldo plays)
So take your pick and good luck

24/11

Quiet day for me yesterday on the horses , and Royal Collonges not placing proved why I didn't really get involved yesterday Djokovic's price took a very long time to break the pre match odds of 1.45 but eventually did. Enhanced bet of course for anyone retaining faith in Novak after losing the first set.
Early races at Southwell hold no interest
1250 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Master Fong, 7/2 Monsieur Jourdain, 5/1 First Bay, 7/1 Veronicas Boy, 10/1 Venture Capitalist, 12/1 Lakeman, 14/1 Toujours Souriante, 20/1 Royal Premium, 33/1 Gwyre, 50/1 Hydrant.

DIOMED VERDICT: MASTER FONG looks the one to be with on this ground.

Again ground a concern today. The paper says soft but I think it may be heavier. MAster Fong has ran in soft last 2 races and only 3 under 10/1 1.2 to place

120 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Knockavilla, 2/1 Riguez Dancer, 8/1 Karmadice, 12/1 April San, 16/1 Bear Witness, The Thirsty Bricky, 66/1 Chief Lady Olwyn, 100/1 The Green Hat.

DIOMED VERDICT: KNOCKAVILLA made a promising start to chasing when runner-up to the very useful Noble Alan at Hexham and can build on that experience. Riguez Dancer is feared most.

Ground a concern with the market leader having run recently on ony good. Good horse though Knockavilla 1.13 to place

I'm leaving Lingfield aone with heavy ground

FOOTBALL
Arsenal v Standard - 1.3 - a bit short without Van Persie but Belgian league is hardly the PREMIERSHIP
Barca v Inter Milan - 1.37 over 1.5 goals - the Champions league minus Barca - who'd have thunk it!! A mini injury crisis with swine flu hitting a few and Ibra out and he has been superb, but Pedro and Bojan are excellent replacements.
Debrecen v Liverpool - 1.33 - the whipping boys are way out of their depth ( and so are Debrecen - only joking!!) Liverpool should win easily shouldn't they but made a pigs ear out of the home leg against this lot
Leeds v L Orient - 1.34 - at home and 1/3 to actually win their league. NOT IN RUNNING
SHORTLIST

120 SEDGEFIELD - Knockavilla looks the best of the horses for pacing today.
With heavy ground at Lingfield and Gowran Park, it will pay those with time and discipine to quickly look through the market pricniples with heavy form.
Harouet was a good example which I found yesterday - the only horse in that raace with soft/ heavy form and won for Paul Nicholls
Arsenal must have a good chance of winning today at 1.3 and may be worth the risk. Dangers? Only need a point and we see time and time again how teams invariably manage to get what they need and little more. No Van Persie and he is a class act, but then Standard are not in the most competitive league in Belgium

ONE A DAY
WHenever I see soft and heavy mixed with jumping, well it simply puts me off, so I think I will place my faith in Arsenal at 1.3 and hope they score first so I can trade out. Barca v Inter looks mouth watering and Barca have found it difficult to score at present. Over 1.5 goals you would think would have a chance of coming in, but Inter can be adept , especially away from home, of shutting a team out

So it's the Arse tonight - not quite a Chelsea v Wolves solid bet but ,with trading in mind, we should get a good chance of the bet coming in. Leaving the horses alone today but hope to pick something off as my one a day in running ( I have sky now so can follow the racing)

23/11

No blog yesterday but Chelsea managed by the odd goal in 4 on Saturday. 3 enhanced bets yesterday. How about Sporting Lisbon (1/10 shots) going a goal down at half time and backable at over evens ( they went on to win 4-1), or Panathanaikos 1-0 down at home AND with the opponents losing a player while 1-0 up, eventually equalising, or Roger Federer one set down and backable at over evens ( I backed him at 1.4 alas when broken early in the 1st set so had a bit of a long wait!)
Plenty of one a day opportunities yesterday with China v Lebanon sticking in my mind, Sporting Lisbon, Ajax, PSV to name but a few. The horse racing was extremely difficult and I chose a good day to leave that arena alone.
Incidentally, readers of the soccer blog would have seen my effort at a correct score treble perm, and it came in with 4-0 Chelsea, 3-0 Rangers, and 1-1 Burnley and Villa. Now more fool me for not doing it for real because the treble payout would have been something like 10/1 , 10/1 and 8/1 , or £968 to a £1 treble stake ( I would have done it as a permutation of 3 scores in each match ) - not bad eh! This was my first try at perming correct scores and it looks like an exercise worth following, as long as you chose those games and teams who are most readable and have definable goal scoring habits.
Today sees all jumps and while the weather is bad, and the horses are being tried over different obstacles, then caution is advised ( like yesterday) Surprising not to see Mr McCoy at Ffos Las - he is the winningmost jockey there and loves the place - he's at Kempton
1220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Candy Creek, 5/1 Aohna, On Borrowed Wings, 7/1 Fidelis, 20/1 Quipe Me Posted, 33/1 Forest Rhythm, Know Your Place, 50/1 Blazing Sun.

DIOMED VERDICT: A suitable opening for last year's smart bumper performer CANDY CREEK to make a winning start over hurdles.

The straight 8 here and 3 at 33/1 or bigger hopefully reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place. McCoy on the jolly for Henderson and another debutant. Quipe me posted a possible mover into 14/1 in places. 1.09 to place is very stingy but I do like it when the betting forecast price is considerably shorter in the live betting (now 1/2)

1230 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Royal Collonges, 11/4 Balnahinch, 11/2 Abbevillian, 8/1 Wayward Prince, 10/1 Truckers Hall, 14/1 Babysitter, 33/1 Llama Farmer, 80/1 Brookfiel
dshector, 100/1 Passive Interest, Secret Gift.

DIOMED VERDICT: Balnahinch has just about the best form on offer but ROYAL COLLONGES, who is a half-brother to the stable's high-class staying chaser Neptune Collonges, will surely prove capable of better.

Walsh/Nicholls the predictable market leader here - has placed in a maiden hurdle 1.2 to place here in a 6 horse race realistically with 3 places - a distant 3rd in very soft on previous outing

Lots of sub 8 runner, 2 the place races this afternoon and we really need to be spot on with these, hence I have only concentrated on 3 the place races, where there is scope for error.

340 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Calzaghe, 13/2 Classical Rhythm, 8/1 Karasakal, 10/1 Regional Counsel, 12/1 Prince Broc, 14/1 Ashes Summer, Noun De La Thinte, Vertueux, 16/1 Isintshelovely, 20/1 Shinnecock Bay, Waarid, 25/1 Northern Lad, 33/1 Zen Factor, 50/1 Mistress Eva, Romney Marsh.

DIOMED VERDICT: bCALZAGHE, who still looks on a fair mark on both Flat and hurdles form despite the double penalty. If his recent exertions aren't taking their toll he is clearly the one to beat.

Well fancied on his last 2 outings and still a price gapper, but I feel winning will be a little more difficult on the hatrick bid, under a penalty, and with a few recent excursions, for Calzaghe, but will this stop him placing? 1.35 to place tells you there is a bit of unease over this one today

350 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Saindor, 6/1 Ackertac, 8/1 Dune Shine, Marlbrook Fox, 10/1 Everdon Brook, 14/1 Box Four, Master Cardor Visa, 20/1 Howlin At The Moon, 33/1 Dust In Time, 100/1 Driving Seat, Master Cospector.

DIOMED VERDICT: Easily the pick on form is SAINDOR who sets a decent standard for a race like this on his encouraging debut third at Aintree last month.

PRice gapper in this bumper where the market is king. Interesting move for Howlin at the moon into 14/1 as I write. 3 1/2 length 3rd in good ground. This is the last race of a soft ground meeting and that is the niggle. 1.25 to place

FOOTBALL
Preston v Newcastle the only game of interest today - 1.09 for one goal or more? It's a market I can't get really get an angle into.
TENNIS IN LONDON
1.45 for in form Djokovic is very enticing today against Davydenko - tradeable too if Djoko gets an early break of serve or wins the first set. I would not have this as a standalone bet, but would insist on trading and getting out for an equivalent 1.15 return, meaning 1.25 or thereabouts would ensure a green screen equivalent to 1.15
SHORTLIST
1220 KEMPTON - 1.09 to place is very short for a hurdles debutant even if it is McCoy for Henderson. BUT positives include jockey , 8 runner field and 3 over 33/1 reducing the competitive place only field to 5, 3 of whom will place. Another positive is Candy Creek's shortened price compared to betting forecast price.
1230 LUD - Walsh/Nicholls Royal Collonges is 1.2 to place, a relatively nice price
Novak Djokovic at 1.45 to win. Higher price than I would normally entertain, hence the insistance really on trading this and following in running.
ONE A DAY
Soft at Ludlow and good to soft at Kempton. I am not taken by the horses today - let's be honest, there is no Chelsea v Wolves solid type bet today is there? Nothing you can nail your colours to the mast. 1.09 is a tad short for a jumps debutant. At the prices Royal Collonges may be worth a gamble. My hope today is to look for non runners in the smaller fields which will hopefully create a good probability race. I am not going to be doing a one a day bet personally today and am happy to be patient .
Good luck if you find a bet

21/11

Not the goalfest I imagined, but Cambuur won 1-0 so job done.
Forrest pennant won too

Immediately today, surely Chelsea at 1.19 v Wolves fits the profile of being a bet that will be a shock if it loses?

A lot of likely races today but featuring generally top heavy markets.
255 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Kauto Star, 2/1 Notre Pere, 13/2 Madison Du Berlais, 10/1 Imperial Commander, 14/1 Halcon Genelardais, 66/1 Rambling Minster, 150/1 The Sawyer, 200/1 Seymour Weld,

DIOMED VERDICT: At the likely prices, NOTRE PERE - the subject of solid support through the week - is a tempting alternative to Kauto Star given that he's consistently shown himself a chaser of very high quality on testing ground.

The return of Kauto and a race with 2 non runners - 3 places and 1.21 Kauto and 1.38 Notre Pere if Diomed is to be believed. As far as I can see, the only thinkg stopping Kauto not placing is a fall.
But is the hype surrounding Notre Pere worthy of interest as 1.38 to place is a nice price in a race of 7 runners, 2 of which are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 5 runners and 3 places.

340 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Presvis, 6/1 Plum Pudding, 8/1 Suits Me, Tranquil Tiger, 12/1 Beauchamp Xerxes, 14/1 General Eliott, 20/1 Tinshu, 33/1 Beauchamp Viceroy, Lucky Dance.

DIOMED VERDICT: PRESVIS may well come on for this reappearance but he looks the one to beat with most of his rivals have something to prove.

Presvis a quality horses and has Fallon onboard for this listed race ( by definition a competitive race!) 1.17 to place

ONE A DAY
Kauto star or Chelsea. Surely Kauto, despite the ground, is such a class horse that only a fall ( beware last fence!!) should stop him placing. Intriguing to wonder how Notre Pere will perform - backed a week!
Chelsea for me though, as this should be a 3-0, 4-0 home win, but I expected this with Cambuur. I suspect Wolves ill put up some resistance while eventually succumbing. Here's hoping the good run continues

20/11

Job done yesterday , race went exactly as planned - did you fancy Cresswell ruby to place at the bigger prices? Frustrating that all horses placed yesterday - I do tend to be far too cautious at times
Late again thanks to a very sticky laptop. Think it may be the antivirus which leaves me frustrated daily, along with the broadband, so missed 1215 Wymott at Kelso
105 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Song Sung Blue, 13/8 There´s No Panic, 9/2 Four Strong Winds, 10/1 San Marino, 20/1 Fly Direct, Guydus, 40/1 Aztec Treasure, 50/1 Tribunel, 66/1 Miss Saffron, Roaming West, 100/1 Magical Maybe.

DIOMED VERDICT: Song Sung Blue sets a fair standard and Four Strong Winds is sure to improve on his hurdling debut third but THERE'S NO PANIC is taken to atone for taking a tumble when favourite at Fontwell.

The market has this between the front 3 - will they all place? If not, which one has the better chance of placing?
Song Sung Blue at present is the most fancied by the market. 1.17 to place presumes this is dominated by the front 3

140 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Forest Pennant, 4/1 Flight Leader, Mark The Book, 13/2 Starburst Diamond.

DIOMED VERDICT: FOREST PENNANT has been schooled over fences for ages now and is taken to make a winning chasing debut, though Flight Leader is a serious threat if he's back to his best after his latest pelvic injury.

Nicholls/Walsh rarely disappoint ( but remember Gullible Gordon fell) 1.31 to place and a 50/50 race - none can be disappointed - there are no outsiders in this 4 runner affair - faith in the jockey here? It is a nice price and I suppose is tradeable to get out at 1.15

205 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Manyriverstocross, 7/2 Vino Griego, 7/1 The Rainbow Hunter, 10/1 Inventor, King Olav, 20/1 Bangkok Pete, 25/1 Gifted Leader, Nice One Eric, 40/1 Final Son, 200/1 Walls Way.

DIOMED VERDICT: Vino Griego could have difficulty matching the Flat-race pace of MANYRIVERSTOCROSS.

Thornton/King on a fancied horse must be accounted for.Only 4 horses under 25/1 should be the ones to focus on for place only purposes 1.11 to place - the market likes this one
550 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Light Sleeper, 9/4 Simla Sunset, 3/1 Tejime, 13/2 Proud Linus, 14/1 Quiet Mountain, 20/1 Interchoice Star, 33/1 Charlie Allnut, Hold The Star, 66/1 Billy Cadiz, Miskin Spirit, Wacato King, 100/1 Old Firm.

DIOMED VERDICT: Market support for newcomer Tejime or long-absent Proud Linus would be encouraging but Simla Sunset and LIGHT SLEEPER have the best 2009 form.

Another race with 4 under 25/1 the ones to concentrate on? illiquid market

800 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Excelerate, 11/4 Six Of Hearts, 9/2 Settigano, 10/1 Miranda´s Girl, 12/1 King´s Bastion, 20/1 Azaboy, 25/1 Breaker Morant, 33/1 Jacks Law.

The straight 8, one strong market leader and only 3 under 20/1 but this is Ireland !!illiquid market

FOOTBALL
700 - Cambuur v Emmen 1.31 - dutch division 2 usually equals goals and this is top(pish) v bottom(ish). Cambuur have never had a game which has not had 2 goals or more -NOT in running is a great disappointment as we now only have the 2.5 goals market and match odds markets.
1.41 for over 2.5 goals - against teams in Emmen's part of the table, CAmbuur have won 3-1 , 4-1 , 4-2 so this is justified
Emmen have not played any of the top teams away from home but have been royally spanked by lower league sides away from home

SHORTLIST
Cambuur look good for the odds of 1.31 and I will seriously consider this one at the odds. Have beaten teams around Emmen in the league with ease. I would prefer the win to goals market and am very wary that this is NOT in running and thus we cannot be reactive after the first goal.
140 EXETER - Forest PEnnant - 4 horses - 2 places and 1.31 to place. ( tradeable price this one)
205 ASCOT - manyriverstocross is 1.11 to place - they're not giving anything away at all.
800 DUNDALK - worth a look nearer the race time - the market is not formed at the moment.
ONE A DAY
I am taken by Cambuur today at the odds. No obstacles to overcome! Not as solid as yesterday given the fact this is Dutch Division 2 and franky I haven't got a scoobies about this league. This is not in running either so it's pure faith in the team who should win if the stats are solid.
Forest Pennant would be my horse of interest today with a proviso that I will trade as 1.31 allows plenty of scope to trade as the race goes in running

19/11

Job done for me with Japan yesterday. The 2 horses mentioned also won ( and placed of course!!)
1250 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Causeway King, 4/1 Ciceron, 7/1 Westlin´ Winds, 8/1 Hallstatt, 10/1 Mr Prolific, 14/1 Singapore Reef, 33/1 Some Time Good, 100/1 Mrs Slocombe, Rio Gael.

DIOMED VERDICT: CAUSEWAY KING is taken to follow up his Warwick victory.

9 down to 7 and 2 clear outsiders certainly makes the fav's job of placing a lot easier. 1.11 to place relays as much - 3 places still - 3 newcomers are 2nd, 3rd and 4th fav and could be anything - Singapore reef well backed. This is effectively a 5 horse race for 3 places. 3 lb claimer on board today?

100 WINCANTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Vico, 11/2 Midnight Appeal, 6/1 Molanna View, Triggerman, 7/1 Inside Dealer, 8/1 Major Harry, 14/1 Holmwood Legend, Wray Castle, 25/1 Ethiopia, 50/1 Ansome.

DIOMED VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has won this race six times in the last ten years, including with Denman, and VICO can keep up the good work for the stable.

Given the excellent Nicholls run in this race, Vico? 1.25 to place - fav based solely on that record mentioned by Diomed? -that's the concern - an artificially low price

150 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Three Ships, 3/1 Games, 5/1 Ministerofinterior, 8/1 Tribiani, 10/1 Springtree, Star Of Memory, 20/1 Immaculate Red, 25/1 Bob´s Sister, 33/1 Lady Penelopy.

DIOMED VERDICT: THREE SHIPS further underlined current form with a game Ludlow win and can follow up at this level.

Only 5 under 25/1 the ones to focus on 1.23 for Three Ships to place - a selling hurdle but yet another perceived 5 horses fighting for 3 places


200 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Carole´s Legacy, 6/1 Cresswell Ruby, 9/1 Rare Article, 40/1 Ringsend Rose.

DIOMED VERDICT: CAROLE'S LEGACY surely need only put in a clear round to collect.

Let the odds do the work here - now 3 horses and 2 places - place and win markets are not properly formed ( must be a new market as I write with the recent non runner)-rare article is the non runner leaving the outsider still in the race, making this really a 2 horse race for 2 places ( bar any falls of course)- despite the poor odds , this is a solid race to look at 1.19 to win as the market reforms and 1.06 to place. Surely Cresswell Ruby enters the equation here for place only purposes as the horse inbetween the 1/7 shot and the 25/1 shot? 1.26 to place.
I would even go as far as to say Cresswell's price of 7 in the win market could be tradeable? Surely it will run below 7 at some stage , to 6.5 perhaps, an allow a nice trade?
Plenty of options and it's a case of making the right decision

210 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dave´s Dream, 7/2 Micheal Flips, 5/1 Matuhi, Numide, 14/1 My Moment, 100/1 Vogarth.

DIOMED VERDICT: An excellent contest in prospect and MICHEAL FLIPS may prove the answer.

2nd fav out opens things up for Dave. One 100/1 shot leaves 4 fighting for 2 places 1.19 to place

310 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Canni Thinkaar, 11/2 Command Marshal, 7/1 Carrickmines, 8/1 Mistress To No One, 10/1 Seven Stars, 12/1 Wujood, 20/1 Transvestite, 25/1 Mycenean Prince, Vicentio, 66/1 Pinkerton Mill.

DIOMED VERDICT: CANNI THINKAAR produced a demolition job at Ludlow and can defy this penalty.

Price gapper here 1.21 to place - similarl profile to Calzaghe recently - that horse produced a demolition job and won again under a penalty

No football today. I already have my one a day for Saturday - surely Chelski v Wolves ? ( you don't have to be a genius to do this one a day thing, you just have to make the right choice of nailed on bet!!)

SHORTLIST
200 WINCANTON stands out
Here are the options as I see it
1) BAck Caroles legacy to win at 1.19 and just hope that the one real opponent is well beaten
2) back carole's legacy to place at 1.06 and take your medicine - after all if the outsider runs to its price, this is a 2 horse race for, erm, 2 places - we will then be betting effectively on a clear round.
3) Cresswell ruby enters the equation now as this is a 3 horse race. Prices 1/7 6/1 25/1
Cresswell is 6/1 Place back Cresswell Ruby at 1.26 and hope this is a 2 horse race. Concern is wit the 7 lb claiming jockey.BUT he has ridden the horse as recently as 8th November.
4) Back Cresswell Ruby in the win market at 7.4 and lay off at 6.4 for a guaranteed profit ( assuming the horse is competitive under this inexperienced jockey)
5) Lay Ringsend Rose to place at odds of 4.5 currently is the equivalent of a 1.27 shot.

210 HUNT - Daves Dream now enters the equation with nearest market rival a non runner 1.19 and McCoy on this chase debutant.

ONE A DAY
As alluded to earlier, it's all about making the right decision now!
The obvious bet ,and safest bet, is back Carole's legacy at 1.06 to place ( well 1.05 now) and take the short price. After all we're after a nailed on bet, regardless of price and then we can move on to tomorrow. To be fair, a run of 3 bets at 1.2 shows that some days the better priced opportunities are there ( 2 of those 1.2 shots were football matches- there are none of interest today)
Now, if Ringsend Rose is 25/1 for a reason, then Cresswell Ruby's 1.25 to place becomes very appealing.
This is a 2 mile 5 novices chase so is a long distance and instinctually, I would be more likely to get involved as the race goes in running because I suspect the 1.05 place price will rise at some point.
1.19 to win for Carole's legacy is just a little shorter that Cresswell's 1.25 to place and is the same price as Daves Dream to place in the 210 Huntingdon under McCoy

SOLID ONE A DAY - Carole's legacy to place ( presumption of a clear round of jumping)
WORTH A CHANCE - Cresswell Ruby to place at 1.25 or Carole's legacy to win at 1.19
If you fancy the better odds, I am sure we will get a run for our money from Cresswell Ruby as long as Ringsend Rose runs to his 25/1 outsider price!!

18/11

Brazil won so job done. I have already done my one a day with Japan v Hong Kong at 1030am. 6-0 in their last encounter in the Asian Cup, 4-0 this time. I could not recount it to you as I have only just managed to get online
But I'll go thru other opportunities now.
1240 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ballybriggan, 7/2 City Theatre, 4/1 Hudibras, 9/2 Edge Of Town, 10/1 Marie De Laufon, True Illusion, 16/1 Quartz Dore, 25/1 The Quiet King, 50/1 Carraigh Na Loine, 66/1 Quelbal.

DIOMED VERDICT: City Theatre has looked a slow learner and preference is for the hurdling newcomer BALLYBRIGGAN.

Only 4 under 16/1 the ones to concentrate on? With City theatre now 15/8

130 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Jarrow, 9/2 Picnic Party, 6/1 Final Turn, 12/1 Compton Sylvia, 33/1 Richboy, 50/1 Prince Of Sorrento, She´s My Rock, 66/1 One Cool Slash, Torres Del Paine,

DIOMED VERDICT: JARROW will take some beating with his initial run behind him.

Solidarity was superb yesterday and so was Fanning with the hatrick. On Jarrow today and Diomed extremely confident ( as is market - now 4/9) 1.09 to place

300 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Troopingthecolour, 13/8 Royaaty, 10/1 Spinning Well, 14/1 New Couture, 33/1 December, 50/1 Champagne Fizz, 66/1 Cotswold Village, Northern Genes, Vigorosa,) 100/1 Set Em Up Mo.

DIOMED VERDICT: Royaaty will have to be a fair bit above average to get the better of TROOPING THE COLOUR.

Godolphin 2nd fav in Royalty ( and we know how good Godolphin have been recently) Market favours Troopingthecolour -"tough to beat" says Diomed and with 3 seconds, tough NOT to place in this race? 1.1 to place

750 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Penrod Ballantyne, 9/4 Staff Sergeant, 6/1 Freedom Pass, 14/1 Khanivorous, Kyoatee Kilt, 20/1 Ana Moutabahi, Far View, 33/1 Balsha, 50/1 Highland Bridge, 100/1 Barafundle Boy,

DIOMED VERDICT: The newcomers Staff Sergeant and Freedom Pass could show up well but PENROD BALLANTYNE can build on the promise of his Leicester debut.

Original fav out and Staff sargent new fav ( that boy Fanning again for Johnston and horse is a newcomer) - market though thinks this is a 2 horse race

FOOTBALL
France v Republoic of Ireland - under 4.5 goals is 1.09 and if a repeat of the first match will come in with ease.1.23 under 3.5 goals I put up last time and that came in, but the dynamics of tis game has changed as Rep need a goal

ONE A DAY
As already said, I backed Japan to beat Hong Kong last night over the phone as broadband was so poor ( as it is now) so it's job done for me

Soccer > Hong Kong v Japan : Match Odds

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Japan		1.21	200.00	Back	18-Nov-09 03:38	41.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	41.00
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	41.00

A recent head to head was 6-0 to the Japs, and hey, this is world footballing superpowers Hong Kong for goodness sake, and a game the Japs had motivation for. Cue 4-0 this game
Were I to play today, well 130 Ling, Jarrow would seem to be identical to Solidarity yesterday in profile and price but 1.09 is miserly. I would consider under 3.5 goals in the Republic v France game at 1.23
Whatever decision you make, good luck

17/11

One a day prevailed with Bensalem winning but the Dubai horse unplaced! But one is all I needed

Football wise, Oman are hosting Brazil and Brazil were 1/10 with Ladbrokes and 1.22 Betfair - surely , despite this being a friendly, they can win this? (Brazil that is!!)
4pm - Lithuania host England's under 21 - 1.33
5pm - Italy under 21's are 1.35 away to the might of Luxembourg under 21's. Looks a big price but I suppose caution given the age group
730 - San Marino under 21 v Germany u21 should equal goals. Unbackable at 1.02 but a look to the goal markets - highly illiquid and not in running market 1.13 available halftime/fulltime
120 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Solicitor, 7/2 Dandarrell, 10/1 Honoured, 12/1 Bubber, 25/1 Admiral Breese, Inshaallah, 50/1 Crystal Glass, Pobs Trophy, 100/1 Chardonnay Star.

DIOMED VERDICT: A good opportunity for SOLICITOR to get off the mark following his encouraging Yarmouth debut.

Johnston/Fanning fav now 4/9 which is promising. A maiden race and with only 4 under 25/1 ,the market suggests only 4 involved 1.1 to place
]
230 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Busker Royal, 9/4 Nom De Guerre, 5/1 Georgian King, 40/1 Musical Weld, Phoenix Des Mottes.

DIOMED VERDICT: BUSKER ROYAL wasn't totally convincing when he had luck on his side to win over shorter here last month on his chasing debut but he should have learnt from that.

3 horse race and 2 places McCoy's Busker is now 1/2 . Another probability race and there's a lot of these over the jumps season 1.21 to place


ONE A DAY - yes I know it's a meaningless friendly and a marketing exercise more than a football match, but Brazil , even with a 2nd string, should prevail against Oman at 1.22 . Elsewhere Germany under 21's halftime/fulltime at 1.13 is a good bet. Should be 4-0 or more all being well.
Solicitor would be my horse bet of the day
BUT it's Brazil for me at 1.22 ( this is in running and tradeable for those able to follow the match)

16/11

No blog yesterday - I wanted a day off
late again today thatnks to conection slipping
1240 ling
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Spring Jim, 7/2 Mister Wall Street, 9/2 Shannina, 11/2 Astrolibra, 12/1 Kristallo, 14/1 Mamba, 20/1 Kirkie, 50/1 Triumphant Welcome, 100/1 Ruttan Lake.

DIOMED VERDICT: SPRING JIM had a great Flat season and, unless the going becomes demanding, should beat this bunch for speed if jumping proficiently. Mister Wall Street and Shannina look most interesting of the others.

Hurdels debutant but all red and 10/11 in places 1.2 place

1250 PLUM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Anak, 5/2 Coeur Brule, 11/2 Head Down, 25/1 Bari Bay, 40/1 Richardlionheart.

DIOMED VERDICT: ANAK should be equal to the task if carrying over his Flat form to this game.

Maiden hurdle - pure probability race and Anak now 2/5 for the champ 1.12

140 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sacrilege, 7/2 Bet Noir, 7/1 Dobravany, 12/1 Natural Rhythm, 14/1 Hoar Frost, 20/1 Royal Rainbow, 40/1 Best Memory, Nightboat To Cairo, 100/1 Blue Savannah.

DIOMED VERDICT: SACRILEGE must take all the beating in this grade if back anywhere near his best. Bet Noir is the one most likely to prosper if the selection fails to deliver.

Ultra positive Diomed
1.23 to place

220 PLUM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Bensalem, 4/1 Chariot Charger, 5/1 Den Of Iniquity, 7/1 Martys Mission, 150/1 Allterrain.

DIOMED VERDICT: BENSALEM appeals most of three interesting recruits to chasing.

"hard to beat with a clear round, Only 2 places though - faith in Choc? 1.22 to place for a 1.57 hot is big

430 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dubai Diva, 3/1 Follow The Dream, 5/1 Honorable Endeavor, 6/1 Ingenue, 8/1 Squirtle, 12/1 Baltimore Patriot, 16/1 K´Gari, 66/1 Chicamia.

DIOMED VERDICT: There should be more to come over staying trips rom DUBAI DIVA and she can add to her Lingfield win at the expense of Follow The Dream and Honorable Endeavor.

2nd fav out and now 4/7
1.17 and 3 places

ONE A DAY
Have to be quick today as caught out by the start again
Best probability race is Anak's and best non jumps ( we don't have to worry about possible falls, is Dubai Diva - 3 places and near market rival out
Bensalem also appeals but only 2 places but is a "hard to beat"
Safest today would be Dubai Diva on the flat, but I am willing to chance Bensalem earlier in the hope that Diomed's confidence is founded (as this is in running, any significant drop in place odds will be traded out by me to ensure a profit is not wiped out by a fall)

14/11

garde Champetre did it again for an Enda (not EDNA!!) Bolger 1-2 -stick that in your diary for March 2010 at the Festival
1200 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Main Spring, 5/2 Rumoush, 3/1 Shamir, 6/1 Boston Blue, 16/1 Thundering Home, 20/1 Street Entertainer, 25/1 Destiny Blue, 50/1 Babycakes, 66/1 Chief Of Ten, 100/1 Ava Doll, Billyonair, Sansili.

DIOMED VERDICT: Market confidence behind Main Spring or Rumoush would be significant but SHAMIR sets a fair standard on his seconds round here last month.

Like Kinetic yesterday, a horse placed twice in maidens - Main String

1230 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Chamirey, 3/1 Predictive, 5/1 Humbel Ben, 7/1 Chouromanesco, 8/1 Quintessentially, 10/1 Mr Tingle, 16/1 City Of Doral, 50/1 Quizwork, Simbamead, 100/1 Desert Pearl, La Pirogue.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHAMIREY stands out a mile on his French form.

3rd fav out and Doimed is taken by Chamirey 1.29 place

1250 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Barizan, 13/2 Trumpstoo, 7/1 Roseska, Screaming Brave, 15/2 Pistolet Noir, 8/1 Olofi, 20/1 Nicky Nutjob, 33/1 Royal Max, 100/1 Princess Soraya.

DIOMED VERDICT: BARIZAN handled soft ground on the Flat and can maintain his winning sequence.

Price gapper now odds on under McCoy, but the concern is the winning run - it will end some time. BUT will that stop the horse placing 1.23 place

105 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Sullumo, 7/2 Midnight Chase, 5/1 Maktu, Vamizi, 8/1 Arctic Echo, 33/1 Gaining Ground, 50/1 Tokpela, 66/1 Moorlands Return.

DIOMED VERDICT: SULLUMO is held in high regard by Charlie Mann and could have the class to make a winning start over fences, even if short of peak fitness.

Another smart hurdler starting chasing in Sullumo. 1.31 place

115 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 L´Ami, 5/1 Anothercoppercoast, 7/1 Zest For Life, 10/1 Berkley, 14/1 Outlaw Pete, 16/1 Benefit Night, 25/1 Battlefront, Lord Nellerie, 33/1 Ballycarron Lad, Champion Charlie, Ooh Cha Cha, The Ginger Man, 50/1 Miyajima, 66/1 Dromone Express.

That boy Bolger again, this time in Ireland 1.15 to place

120 CHElteNHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Pettifour, 9/4 Toby Jug, 6/1 Kanpai.

DIOMED VERDICT: PETTIFOUR has to show he can jump fences but this should be a very good opportunity in receipt of 8lb from chief danger Toby Jug.

Only 3 but 2 places so if you're brave enough ,take your pick and hope 1.27, 1.41 and 1.98 to place these 3 so take your pick - a great probability race

150 PUNCH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Dunguib, 11/2 Puyol, 10/1 Fantoche, 12/1 Dante Hall, 16/1 Carrigeen King, 20/1 Freneys Well, Hampshire, 33/1 Schindlers Society, 50/1 Take Me There, Therangersdaughter, 100/1 Arctic Blue.

This is THE Irish horse for the Cheltenham Festival in March and although 1/2 in the live market, and heavy ground today, Dunguib cannot be discounted 1.07 to place - terrible price in heavy over obstacles - 1.21 in the win market may be worthy of support

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Black Eagle, 4/1 Alpen Glen, 5/1 Can Can Star, 6/1 Bound By Honour, Spitfire, 14/1 Weald Park, 50/1 Our Teddy,

DIOMED VERDICT: An 11-week break should have refreshed ALPEN GLEN and she can get back on track at the expense of Black Eagle.

2 days ago it was a 1st and a 2nd for Godolphin - more of the same I suppose with Black eagle while the stable are RED HOT 1.33 to place BUT 2 places

305 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Global City, 3/1 Capricorn Run, 9/2 Five Star Junior, 5/1 Exclamation, Son Of The Cat, 10/1 Artistic License, 25/1 Daddy´s Gift, 66/1 Capone, Tin Cha Woody, 100/1 Diddums, 500/1 Beau Jazz.

DIOMED VERDICT: The 3yo SON OF THE CAT, who has been on the upgrade since gelded and faced an impossible task in hindsight when second to Arthur's Edge at Goodwood last time, is preferred to Global City and Five Star Junior.

Again blind faith in Godolphin? Global City 1.55 to place

550 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Huroof, 9/2 Jounce, 6/1 Chicane, Effervesce, 12/1 Evening Tale, Hovering Hawk, Sweet Caroline, 14/1 Princess Mandy, 33/1 Pinewood Polly, 66/1 Akubra, Cheyenne Chant, The Blue Dog.

DIOMED VERDICT: HUROOF ran with plenty of promise on her debut and she can put her disappointing effort at Folkestone behind her.

godolphin again 1.22 to place

FOOTBALL
Kenya v Nigeria - 1.51 - surely if a full squad, The Nigerians should have too much -it is a World Cup Qualifier - head to heads are in favour of Nigeria - a lay of Kenya perhaps here, or if you're brave 1.51 - this is not in running hence the reason why I'd lay Kenya - I can't be reactive
Russia v Slovenia - 1.39 - Play off qualifier
croatia v Leichtenstein - 1.08 - a friendly I think but should be too good and goals could be the call here 1-15 half time/full time but illiquid market - 1.36 over 2.5 goals here and tradeable as in running.
Brazil v England - a friendly so nothing to play for, and Qatar. Over 1.5 goals is a massive 1.35 here
Ireland v France - surely a shut out job by the Irish boys this evening, leaving under 3.5 goals appealing at 1.2
SHORTLIST
1230 UTTOXETER - 5 horses 20/1 or over and a 3rd fav non runner should leave this for Chamirey and Predictive
115 PUNCHESTOWN - L'ami and Bolger -a good combination reflected in the price but 1.15 to place
150 PUNCH - Dunguib's place price is too short ( the same as Croatia to win, and I would prefer the Croats)
Win only price might be worth a dabble at 1.21
laying Kenya is the same as a 1.12 bet. Not in running otherwise I'd back Nigeria and lay off
Croatia at 1.08 is a simple pick and if you don't mind the short price, well this is nice and simple.
ONE A DAY
Solid = Croatia at 1.08. Tradeable is over 2.5 goals at 1.36 but this is a friendly.
SImple enough and no need to be clever. Take the short odds today and move on.
Dunguib to win at 1.21 would be a good bet if you were feeling speculative

13/11

Late start again thanks to poor broadband reception
Job done yesterday - Ebraam I actually backed in the win market after 2nd, 3rd and 4th favs became non runners. It's all about flexibility. Not one a day but an opportunity not to miss

225 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 French Opera, 9/2 Tramantano, 13/2 Consigliere, 7/1 Song Of Songs, 8/1 Safari Adventures, 9/1 Beggars Cap, 10/1 Safari Journey, 16/1 Nikola, 20/1 Beherayn.

DIOMED VERDICT: FRENCH OPERA ran his best race over fences here and comes here on the back of a confidence-boosting win.

7 runners now and 3 places but only 12/1 the outsider tells you this is tight

300 CHeltenham
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Garde Champetre, 15/8 Silver Birch, 14/1 Sizing Australia, 16/1 Casadei, 20/1 Rimsky, 25/1 Heads Onthe Ground, Mr Big, Soleil Fix, 40/1 Lights Out, 66/1 Marath, Openide, 200/1 Lirain.

DIOMED VERDICT: GARDE CHAMPETRE has a fabulous record here and can confirm his superiority over Silver Birch in what looks a two-horse race.

eDNA bOLGER IS THE ONLY STOPPING POINT IN TESE CROSS COUNTRY races (apologies for bold caps) - and Garde Champetre looks the one to be with

325 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kinetix, 7/2 French Hollow, 8/1 Magistrate, Red Hot Desert, Starburst, Sure Fire, 33/1 Alfies Express, Dance Gdansk, Stardust Memories, 50/1 Brahms And Mist, Supplementary.

DIOMED VERDICT: KINETIX has consistently produced enough to suggest she can belatedly get off the mark at this level.

Consistently placed fav 1.19

FOOtball
bELgium u19 v andorra - should be straightforward and 1.06 tells you as much. NOT in running and only 2 markets
Netherlandsu21 v Leichtenstein u21
1.02 to win means look elsewhere
1.1 half time ( but illiquid market)
1.19 over 2.5 goals ( again illiquid market)
and in running
san marino under 19 v Ireland u19 - 1.15 - again not in running and no market forces as yet
BUT San MArino, Leichtenstein, Andorra et al are all opposable by default

ONE A DAY SHORTLIST
Well it's simply Garde Champetre for me under Nina Carberry for Edna Bolger. 1.2 to place tells you all in such a big field over the cross country course
Backing Garde and Silver Birch to £100 stakes produces a £37 profit.
I would expect goals in the Netherlands v Leichtenstein game so over 2.5 goals looks a big price despite the illiquid market
Kinetix looks ultra consistent
But I will stick with Garde Champetre here -there's always the concern of a fall but you oppose Edna Bolger over the Cheltenham and Punchestown cross country courses at your peril
More rock solid if jumps makes you squeamish would be Netherlands to be winning at half time or over 2.5 goals

12/11

Fed won the first set yesterday and that allowed a trade - he went on to lose 2-1 and I must admit I enhanced bet him at about 2.1 ( not bad odds for a 1.06 shot) - it was tradeable down to 1.4 .
No official bet yesterday. Godolphin chipped in with 2 winners from 2 again so if you're feeling speculative then follow this red hot yard

Quiet day again today by the look of it and slow broadband means I'll miss the early races but they are poor.
150 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Vegas Palace, 9/4 Brigadoon, Master Leon, 25/1 Tealing.

DIOMED VERDICT: VEGAS PALACE, having proved herself on this surface, is taken to beat Master Leon.

Another probability race here with Vegas Palace now odds on. 3 horses and 2 places. Yesterday's probability race saw the 25/1 3rd fav showing 16/1 in the live market -a possible market mover so I left that race alone
This one has those magic words " likely to be hard to beat", is proven on the surface and has placed twice

220 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Angie´s Nap, 7/2 Zelos Dream, 4/1 Jack Luey, 7/1 Prettiest Star, 10/1 Lord Victor, 14/1 Avec Moi, Micky´s Bird, 50/1 Lady Bucket, Nidamar, Selina Rio.

DIOMED VERDICT: ANGIE'S NAP is thriving at present and can complete a Fibresand four-timer.

On a 4 timer and we know that it is hard to keep winning ( unless you're Zenyatta that is)
A lowly seller on the all weather and backed into 11/10 so fancied. The market shows only 3 under 12/1 and we must decide whether Angie will continue the fine form or bomb out 1.2 to place

240 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Australia Day, 5/1 Saltagioo, 11/2 Slate Gem, 8/1 Consulate, 9/1 Don´t Panic, 12/1 Scandal, 25/1 Goose Green, 40/1 Byblos, 66/1 Uig.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for AUSTRALIA DAY to get back on track.

Price gapper here and significantly 1/2 in the live betting showing big support today. Dropped in grade for this confidence booster after a fall in class 1 company
9 runners and 3 are 50/1 or bigger leaving 6 fighting for 3 places. Will the fall have knocked his confidence? Was the fall due to bad jumping? In any case, the market is very much with this one 1.13 to place

300 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 First Point, 2/1 Noble Request, 6/1 Markila, 7/1 Bolodenka, 10/1 Is It Me, 33/1 Olivino, 100/1 Brimley, Earlestown Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: FIRST POINT, who went from strength to strength in the latest campaign over hurdles, looks a safer bet than Noble Request.

Interesting race this - now 7 runners but still 3 places and this looks to be dominated by the front 2 with 2 solid jockeys onboard. Faith in First point - now 11/10? 1.16

520 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ebraam, 11/2 Misaro, 8/1 Rosie Says No, 10/1 Swinbrook, Thunder Bay, 12/1 Equinine, 14/1 Trimlestown, 25/1 One More Round, 33/1 Battimoore, Deckchair, 50/1 Mr Funshine, Rainbow Above You, Steel Blue.

DIOMED VERDICT: EBRAAM (nap) is hard to oppose in a race lacking strength in depth.

Trigger words " hard to oppose" and "likely to be hard to beat" instill enthusiasm in this price gapper albeit in a claimer - and I don't like betting in claimers

550 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Nafura, 9/2 House Red, 5/1 Duty And Destiny, 6/1 If I Were A Boy, 8/1 Anaya, 10/1 Merchant Of Medici, Pastello, 12/1 Sounds Of Thunder, 33/1 Emma Dora.

DIOMED VERDICT: DUTY AND DESTINY might well be on a good mark and is taken to make her nursery debut a winning one.

Guess what? yes Godolphin fav now 10/11 in places and really they have been booting them home with amazing regularity

620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Naseehah, 11/2 Thunderball, 6/1 Arizona John, 13/2 Barliffey, 8/1 Snow Dancer, 10/1 Just Bond, Wikaala, 16/1 Brouhaha, 20/1 Becuille.

DIOMED VERDICT: JUST BOND's last two runs have promised a return to winning ways sooner rather than later and he can extend his good course record (six wins).

Another Godolphin fav in a 7 runner race ( 3 places) in Naseehah

FOOTY
4pm U.A.E. v Man City - 1.99 - fulfilling sponsorship obligations in a game Sparky would rather not play. Expect fringe players given the international break? Goals perhaps here ?

SHORTLIST
150 STHL - Vegas Palace 1.18 to place in this maiden looks worthy of support not to get beaten by 2 in a 4 horse race ( one of which is 25/1) Proven on the surface and 2nd of 6 and 3rd of 16 is proven placed form.
We cannot discount the other 2 likely to play a part and this is a race where we play the probabilities.
240 TAUNTON - Australia day is 1.13 to place here -do we place confidence in the obvious positive market vibes here and conveniently discount the fall last time? I have said it before - when the betting forecast price is much reduced in the live market, this is generally a good sign
300 LUDLOW - First point is the clear fancy in the place market at 1.16. This is a 7 horse race with 2 horses at 100/1 or bigger leaving 5 horses running for 3 places so faith in Geraghty here and the horse not falling
520 WOLVES - Ebraam is 1.1 to place at time of writing (this may change) - this is a bit skinny for a biggish field claimer, but he is one of my " hard to beat" selections so is respected
Mention must be made for Godolphin - 2 more winners yesterday carried on the amazing run and they have 2 runners ( highlighted above) so if you fancy better odds, then place back these

ONE A DAY
In a day in stark contrast with yesterday ,we have a lot of decent looking horse opportunities. I am leaving the tennsi alone - it's great for trading but not betting ( for example I laid Almagro at 1.02 and Nadal saved 5 match points yesterday and backed at 1.22 for an instant £40 profit!!)
Time order for me today. Although I hate maiden races, the probability that Vegas Palace will effectively get beaten by 1 horse ( we are discounting the 25/1 shot) in a perceived 3 horse race, when already placed twice and having been proven on the surface, is small enough to get involved.
If you prefer 3 places ( and I know some avoid maiden races) then I would focus on the " hard to beat" contenders today( one of which is my choice above) - this being Ebraam
But fingers crossed Vegas Palace finishes first or 2nd

11/11

The solid one a days came in. In time order inchidaly Rock was the selection at a nice 1.2 at the off. He won
My personal speculative bet on Real Madrid saw a damp squid again as they only managed a 1-0.
Contrast with Barcelona who won 5-0 and I think I got the wrong over 4.5 goals. BUT I did back Barca myself at 2.8 over 4.5 goals having seen Sevilla and Atletico Madrid score 5and 6 goals despite comfortable 1st leg wins.
It was one of those " this'll pay for Xmas" bets for me. I just had the feeling there were going to be goals in the Barca match

Soccer > Barcelona v Leonesa : Over/Under 4.5 Goals

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Over 4.5 Goals		2.80	466.00	Back	10-Nov-09 21:04	838.80
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	838.80
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	838.80
					Commission @ 4.4%:	36.91
					Net Market Total:	801.89

At 0-0 it was looking like I'd done my dough, but 4 goals in 10 minutes in the 2nd half left me with a guaranteed green screen of £500. BUT with 25 minutes of the match to go, I decided that I would try to buy time.
The over 4.5 goals odds at 4-0, with 25 minutes to go , was 1.37.
I decided that I would wait until over 4.5 goals odds increased to 2.8 to lay and trade out for a break even. This gave plenty of time for Barca to nail a 5th goal.The 5th goal came in the 75th minute and Barca had pretty much replicated Athletico Madrid and Sevilla's home performances.
The backing of Barca was based on my strategy of looking at similar clubs at home against similar lowly opposition and getting a kind of guide scoreline for Barca.
So Real are quickly forgotten and I have some Xmas money to spend on the nephews and neices!!

Inchidaly Rock's win was nice but jumps racing can be back for the old ticker. One mistake 2 out and time seemed to have stood still. The horse pecked on landing and Ruby held on luckily.
The Nicholls/Walsh partnership had a treble on the day I believe

110 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Massasoit, 3/1 Comhla Ri Coig, 7/2 Burton Port, 7/1 Latanier, 10/1 Al Co, 20/1 Our Hero.

DIOMED VERDICT: In a notably promising field, MASSASOIT is given another chance to live up to what he showed first time out last season.

A lot of these beginners chases about this early jumps season and we see another Walsh/Nicholls fav, now evens. Not 3 places though like yesterday - 1.4 to place for Massasoit over the larger obstacles for the first time

300 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Comradeship, 3/1 Calypso Star, 6/1 Power Of Dreams, 12/1 Dazakhee, Sassanian, 14/1 Captain Clint, 16/1 As Brave As You, Desert Aisling, 20/1 Creevy, 25/1 Rescent, 50/1 Lord´s Seat.

DIOMED VERDICT: COMRADESHIP (nap) makes plenty of appeal on his nursery debut turned out quickly (future mark likely to be higher). Calypso Star and Dazakhee are also respected.

now 4/5 and always a good sign when short priced betting forecast price is even shorter in the live market -1.18 to place for Comradeship and the market certainly likes this one but a nursery debutant and all 2 year olds - been running exclusively in maiden company
Caution - nursery

410 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Whiteabbey, 7/4 Hard Act, 9/2 Rhythm Seeker, 20/1 Master Cospector, 33/1 Ringsend Rose.

DIOMED VERDICT: HARD ACT looks the one to be with despite a two-year absence.

Bumper so no obstacles and one of those 3 horses for 2 places races.Hard act not run for 2 years. A case of chose one of the 3 and hope he finishes in the first 2 - 1.37, 1.63 and 1.93 for the front 3 to place 1st or 2nd but a highly illiquid market and no money about as yet -As said there are no obstacles at all so no jumping concerns - will HArd Act's absence be the chink in the armour amongst the front 3? THe market nearer 410 will tell more - quite clearly it's not been motoring as yet

630 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Battleoftrafalgar, 5/2 Keraloun, 7/1 Hot Sand, 8/1 Fantando, Rock Pipit, 10/1 Bold Thady Quill, Zanoubiya, Zarif, 12/1 Coastal Waters, Oh So Beautiful, Tillahow, Whisper Cool, 16/1 The Gave, Valbucca,

Only 3 under 12/1 at time of writing and Battle represents Murtagh/O'Brien 1.46 to place and these evening markets will not be strong at tme of writing

720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Next Move, 9/2 Hidden Glory, Mawaddah, 8/1 Faited To Pretend, Marie De Guise, 10/1 Vocabulary, Yabtree, 12/1 Abhar, 14/1 Maid In Heaven, 25/1 La Toya J, 50/1 Baggsy, Consult, Krysanthe, Plenty O´Toole.

DIOMED VERDICT: NEXT MOVE is bred to be useful and he won't have to be a superstar to make a winning start to his career.

Godolphin return to action - can they continue their domination?1.36 to place and again it is difficult to say " yes, place back this one" with neary 8 hours before race time

FOOTBALL
Mallorca v Valladolid-1.74 - unbeaten at home in the league but this is a Spanish Cup game.
Nothing else really football wise.
PARIS MASTERS TENNIS
Guez v Monfils 1.17 - based really on this being France and Monfils being French ( that's the extent of my tennis knowledge right there) - no head to heads but 16th in world playing 179th in the world
Federer v Benneteau - 1.06 win market and 1.27 2-0 sets - interestingly 1.03 Fed at Ladbrokes and 1.06 on Betfair
Almagro v nadal - 1.12 - Rafael seems to have overcome injuries and should surely be too good? 4-0 to Rafa head to heads
Murray v Blake - 1.16 - Ruby is 4th fav to win the tournamentand Blake is 230 on Betfair to win - last played on hard court in 2006 and Murray has surely improved considerably since.
SHORTLIST
410 BANGOR would be the first race of interest from me from a place only perspective today but as there is 4+ hours til race time, the betfair markets have not formed properly. This is an ideal probability bet where the live market will be an important decision making tool, as will our ability to find chinks in one or 2 of the front 3. As already said, hard act's absence is a big negative.
Soft ground today.
The evening meetings - it's not fair on me to be making decisions on these so early as the markets are not properly formed and a lot can happen
TENNIS
Of interest today given the big boys are out in force. Not my forte though Tennis and purely going by prices and names
Federer 2-0 sets at 1.27 is enticing.
2-0 against today's opponent and not dropped a set. Benneteau is french and may be boosted
Monfils instinctually would be shortlisted being French and some 160+ places ahead of his opponent. Motivation surely in home capital?

ONE A DAY
A difficult day for me to decide. The disadvantage for me is deciding so early. The 410 Bangor, for me, relies on the live market and 4pm markets compared to the midday markets -well there's no comparison - the market will naturally be far more accurate nearer the off.
As to the tennis? Well it's reputation only and head to heads stats that I can decide with. Federer 1.27 to win 2 sets to love is, most importantly, tradeable , and the price will drop considerably if Federer breaks serve early in the 1st set. This would be my option today.
Reliance on the big boys? Nadal?Monfils? Federer? Murray? Surely amongst these 4, we should favour the Short odds French player at home - much more motivation and home support ?(Monfils)
No official one a day bet today but I will monitor the 410pm markets and hope a weakness can be found in one of the 3 most likely to be fighting for 2 places. Instinct tells me Whiteabbey should be competitive.
I will look at Federer 2-0 sets at 1.27 later on with trading a must if Federer breaks early

10/11

What a disappointment yesterday! Attack v defence. Keeper decided to have the game of his life and Naval's defence consistented of 10 outfield players , and it should have been 4 or 5-0 to Benfica! The goal came, but all too late for overs backers or traders.
In retrospect, Benfica were always going to win and the match odds bet was better!
Enhanced bets? Liverpool 2-1 down at home and equalise and already said Benfica touched as high as 3.8 in the match odds market. For those watching the match on Betfair video this was a good enhanced bet even at 3.00 ( which I backed Benfica at ( they were 1.21 pre match))

100 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Wild Rhubarb, 4/1 Megasue, Theft, 11/2 Queen Poline, 7/1 Gentle Caribou, 12/1 Sheila´s Castle, 14/1 Alasi, 20/1 Slick Mover, 25/1 Oh No Rosa, 40/1 Etain, 66/1 Behest, Little Roxy, Merstone Lady, Sweet Request, 100/1 Veras Joy.

Fav is out -Only 5 are under 16/1 here -the ones to concentrate on? Hurdle debutants mostly so caution 1.58 to place 120 SEDG BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Honour The World, 11/4 Freedom Flying, 7/2 Commons Glory, 6/1 Fistral, 7/1 Planetarium, 12/1 Insignia, 20/1 Golden Globe, 66/1 Perez, 100/1 Noble Vic. DIOMED VERDICT: HONOUR THE WORLD should be hard to beat down in this grade back over hurdles if lasting out this trip and is just preferred to fellow Irish raider Commons Glory. Although this is a selling urdle, 2nd fav is out leaving Honour the World with an easier opportunity - 2 horses can clearly be discounted leaving 6 fighting for 3 places 1.58 the fav and 1.42 Common world to place 240 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Inchidaly Rock, 9/2 Giles Cross, 11/2 Heathcliff, 15/2 Hey Big Spender, 8/1 Connak, 11/1 Cashel Blue, 50/1 Pine Native, Wadswick Ben. DIOMED VERDICT: Several interesting recruits from hurdles in a decent event. INCHIDALY ROCK (nap) was the best of them in that sphere and, with three wins in Irish points auguring well for this switch to fences and hailing from the Nicholls stable, he is readily preferred. Walsh/Nicholls on chase bow. " hard to beat" says Diomed. The straight 8 runners here and 2 are 100/1 or bigger.Still odds on the fav. 1.17 to place

310 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Copper Bleu, 5/1 Take The Breeze, 13/2 Stradbrook, 17/2 Captain Americo, 10/1 Award Winner, 12/1 Ajzal, Dover´s Hill, 16/1 Cloud Nine, 20/1 Ballinderry Park, 25/1 Costa Courta, 33/1 Turnworth. DIOMED VERDICT: A race which has attracted a whole host of very interesting recruits from hurdling and looks sure to produce lots of future winners. If COPPER BLEU is able to show something close to his very smart novice hurdle form he is likely to be the one for today. Now odds on and a Walsh/Nicholls horse 2nd fav. Like the race above, all really hinges on a translation of hurdles form to the chasing sphere 1.23 to place 400 LING BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Chilli Rose, 9/2 Cashpoint, 13/2 Alwaysonthemove, 10/1 Tara´s Attraction, 14/1 I Owe Silver, 16/1 Stay In Tune, 20/1 Moonset, 25/1 Mr Murray, 66/1 Kirkum. DIOMED VERDICT: CHILLI ROSE is the one to beat on the form she showed when sixth in the mares' bumper at the Grand National meeting at Aintree in April. Thornton/King on the fav now 4/9 - no obstacles to overcome here bar the horse having not run since April 1.11 to place 410 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Minack, 7/4 Best Oscar, 8/1 Aztec Treasure, 14/1 Slabsy, 20/1 Swincombe Rock, 25/1 Bell Hill Lad. DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a match between ex-Irish pointers THE MINACK and Best Oscar. We see these a lot during the jumps season - potential " matches" between 2 maket leaders. the live market makes this a 3 horse race between the 3 under 25/1 -again Wals/Nicholls represented by the Minack. Both horses are points winners so have experience jumping. Faith in the market here and in the hope this is, indeed a 2 horse race 1.23 and 1.37 the front 2 to place FOOTBALL Well, Naval parked the bus, another 2 buses, and a big Hercules transport plane infront of Benfica's goal. Will that be the case this evening? 2nd leg of Spanish Cup games and I did mention to look out for Real madrid v Alcorcan. A huge 4-0 shock away for Real. Back at home now in this 2nd leg and will Alcorcan do a Naval and park the bus? 1.06 for the straight win tells all 1.06 over 1.5 goals 1.2 over 2.5 goals 1.28 half time/full time 1.25 to be winning at half time Team news vital here. Pelligrini has been given a reprieve with Real's sudden winning turn around recently, and defeat here is unthinkable 2.08 over 4.5 goals for those who think Real will get back the 4 lost goals and go on to win. This interests me albeit with a strong Real side out Sevilla v Ath Ciudad. 4-2 in the first leg, so a glimmer of hope for Ciudad. Again team news important. Sevilla coming off a 3-2 home win at the weekend 1.28 the straight win 1.19 over 1.5 goals Valencia v Alcoyaro - all to play for after a 1-0 away win ( that's if Valencia take this seriously of course - and this counts for all of the big boys this evening) 1.28 the win Barcelona v Leonisa - 2-0 lead into the home leg for Barca - will be a much weakened side this evening at the Nou Camp and no real reason to bust a gut ( but Barca are the current cup holders) 1.13 the straight win 1.12 over 1.5 goals. The question is motivation. Real have a 4 goal deficit to overcome- Barca don't SHORTLIST

120 SEDGFIELD
50/50 race really here with 6 fighting for 3 places and likely domination between Honour the world and Commons Glory I would favour the live market leader at the off but am taken by the "hard to beat" tag on Honour the world -NEGATIVES - a seller

240 EXETER
Inchadaly Rock - short price due to connections, ability or both?
Debutant in this sphere and 1.17 to place
again a 6 runner affair if the 2 outsiders play no part, meaning the selection must beat 3 to place

400 LINGFIELD
Chilli Rose -I like it when betting forecast prices shorten in the live market - here it's 4/9 Concern is the lengthy absence ( but as you can see in the early jumps seasonwe never get a really "clean" bet - they're either coming off a layoff, debuting over jumps or chase fences, or the ground is soft)
1.11 to place and no obstacles to overcome

REAL MADRID - team news vital here but a strong team should help claw back the 4 goal deficit. 2.08 over 4.5 goals is highly speculative but based on a strong Real team and an attitude that says they want to stay in the cup
Best shorter odds could be 1.25 to be leading at half time

ONE A DAY
BEST ODDS - 2.08 over 4.5 goals in the Real Madrid cup match.-their website simply states " turnaround time" - I did mention that the first game looked like a fix in order to get bums on seats in the bigger venue for the 2nd leg.This has worked with a sell out tonight. Am I just being cynical? Fans will want to know - can they get 4 or more and go through? Concern that Alcorcan do a Naval, but surely there should be too much for them to not concede
No Casillas, Benzema or Alonso tonight - from the website

Goalkeepers

Dudek, Adan

Defenders

Arbeloa, Pepe, Albiol, Marcelo, Garay

Midfielders

Gago, Diarra, Kaka, Lass, Van der Vaart, Granero

Forwards

Raul, Van Nistelrooy. Higuain

looks a very good forward line. Kaka plays too

SOLID LOOKING - 1.11 Chili Rose in the 400 Lingfield and Inchadaly Rock at the slightly bigger prices. I would go in time order here. If there are any earlier selections that present themselves ( late non runners or even a market leader falling early in a race, I will take it and recount tomorrow)

As ever, if you disagree, make your own picks. I do hope Real take this seriously tonight and 2.08 over 4.5 goals is speculative but achievable if they play to their abilities.
For me, personally, it's over 4.5 goals. This is not really rock solid at all and does not fit into the "shock if it loses" category.

9/11

Mourinho does not lose at home - FACT , so when Roma went a goal ahead, I laid them as low as 2.74 a half time for a nice enhanced bet when Inter inevitably equalised
Celtic were a superb enhanced bet - 2-1 own and backable at 5.1

145 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Qulinton, 11/8 Lady Pilot, 15/2 Yeoman Spirit, 33/1 Musical Weld.

DIOMED VERDICT: QULINTON will take some catching if jumping fluently on his chasing debut but Lady Pilot, who has the benefit of previous public experience of fences, is a serious threat.ut

Should be a 3 horse race with 2 places but another chase debut . Front 2 both 11/10 1.21 and 1.23 to place the front 2
Musical weld is 11.5 to lay to place and may be an option?


And that's it. Although there seem to be some good candidates, they are either debuting over chase fences ,or, with Chapel Flowers, a chaser going over hurdles. Big fields, heavy ground in places make this a wholly unappetising racing day for me today.

FOOTBALL
Benfica v Naval - 1.21 to win
Rock solid at home and scoring a shed load at home - 20 in 4 matches
Suffered only defeat away to Braga
Naval were beaten at home 3-1 by Porto and this is a guide as to the likely scoreline this evening.
1.19 over 1.5 goals IF Benfica have them scoring boots on

Liverpool v Brum - 1.35 to win. It seems that when Betfair put up markets for one team to have 1.5 goals+ the games do, indeed, have goals in them
Liverpool either WIN or they lose- they haven't done draws this term.
Only the one defeat at home - one win only for Brum on their travels and have lost away to 4 of the top 5 ( yet to play Chelsea) and drew 0-0 with Man City.
Arsenal beat Brum 3-1 but Arsenal are in far better form than Liverpool.
1.25 over 1.5 goals should presume Liverpool score the 2 goals. There is certainly an expectation of goals from market makers with the correct score 2 market and over 6.5 goal market on Betfair.
ONE A DAY
No need for a shortlist really today. One horse race of interest and 2 footy matches and that's it. Benfica have scored 20 in 4 games at home and 1.19 for over 1.5 goals looks the play today.

8/11

Job done yesterday by the odd goal in 7. Enhanced bet with Man City 2-0 down ,winning 3-2 for a great trade ,then drawing 3-3
110 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Get Me Out Of Here, 5/1 Pure Faith, 13/2 Walamo, 12/1 Alesandro Mantegna, No More Whispers, 25/1 Monsieur Cadou.

DIOMED VERDICT: GET ME OUT OF HERE has every chance of defying a penalty earned when beating Pure Faith easily at Worcester.

Now 1/2 for Get me out with McCoy who loves Ffos Las 1.2 to place and only 2 places and a penalty to carry - not quite in Norwich City rock solid territory is it?

120 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Mille Chief, 7/2 Warrior One, 9/2 Dark Oasis, 13/2 Lakeman, 8/1 Bocamix, 14/1 Comprimario, Heredias, 16/1 Sergeant Pink, 20/1 Whispering Spirit, 40/1 King´s Counsel, Nayessence, Richo, 66/1 Bahamian Ceilidh, Gold Maha, Reel Bluff.

DIOMED VERDICT: MILLE CHIEF is an intriguing recruit to hurdling. His connections had plenty of success with the very smart Walkon, who had been bought out of the same French yard, in juvenile hurdles last season.

Price gapper here and odds on but a complete unknown to hurdles. Yard/Jockey rep goes before any proven ability 1.27 to place - wins at a canter or underperforms - it's the chance you take - is the market an accurate reflection of this horse's chances or is the market influenced by King/Thornton combination


155 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Operation Houdini, 10/1 Rebel Chief, 12/1 Casey Supreme, The Flying Dustman, Theribtickler, West Ship Master, 14/1 Duroob, Halfback, Polar Call, Seefin Dancer, 16/1 Equation, Grey Area, Red Scally, Undergraduate, 20/1 Bold Fencer, Ifyoucouldseemenow, King Vic, Uncommited, 25/1 Cochise, El Tuco, Global Position, Iwilltellyouwhen, Kerzak, Killeaney, 33/1 Derrycrew, Roadmaker, 50/1 Bat Out Of Hell, Leonardo Corona, Thirsty Tommy.

Now that's some price gap but this is a handicap hurdle in Ireland - at least we'll have 4 places 1.48 to place but illiquid market

200 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Bureaucrat, 5/1 Little Firecracker, 8/1 Ballabrook, 20/1 Ruling Reef, 40/1 William Weazle, 66/1 Jetlag, Simplyirresistible.

DIOMED VERDICT: BUREAUCRAT should outclass his rivals.

Conditional jockeys selling hurdle. YIKES. But they say the fav is a class above. He needs to be having unseated and fallen in 2 of his last 3. 2 places too -1/2 in the live market and little is 3/1-should involve 3 horses so it's pretty much a probability race 1.18 to place - not quite the 1/3 in the betting forecast - just over 1/2 on Betfair, but if we can assume this will be a race of 3 horses then a horse taking a huge drop in class should be competitive? BUT in a selling hurdle for a reason!!

240 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Morning Supreme, 9/2 Kilflora, 8/1 Fly Home Cassy, Split Ear, 14/1 Dream Home, 16/1 Keep Movin, Our Symphony, Thesulkyoflanagan, 20/1 Brave Heart, Cordless, Leader Bobby, Lee´s Cross, Midnight Penny, Therangersdaughter, 25/1 Lady Laragh, The Flying Scholar, 33/1 Alittlealexandrite, Some Captain,

Walsh/Mullins - soft ground a slight concern 1.2 to place

305 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Quideo De Touzaine, 7/1 Jau, 8/1 Timeshift, 10/1 Filippo Lippi, 12/1 Court Red Handed, Noble Aran, 14/1 Ballyoliver, The Disengager, 16/1 Viking Blond, 20/1 Saulty Max, 50/1 Deepwood Fox, Kelly´s Quest,

DIOMED VERDICT: Impressive bumper winner QUIDEO DE TOUZAINE is fancied to make a successful switch to hurdles here.

Another price gapper for Nicholls but no Walsh as he is in Ireland. Newcomer to hurdles so any bet based on hope the horse is well schooled 1.32 to place

335 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 The Jigsaw Man, 3/1 Ravethebrave, 14/1 Calusa Shadow, Peppertree Lane, 20/1 Waldenstroem, Zaif, 33/1 Azulada Bay, 66/1 Brookfieldshector, 100/1 Riverbank Ruby.

DIOMED VERDICT: THE JIGSAW MAN is a useful type and can win again.

4 over 33/1 can hopefully be discounted leaving 5 fighting for 3 places - peppertree lane the market mover 1.11 to place - they fancy this one in the market

FOOTY
1245 - Falkirk v Celtic 1/3 away - what is interesting is the 11/1 about Falkirk at Ladbrokes - all but dismissed
Only beaten by Rangers this season, despite seemingly poor form.FAlkirk beaten 4-1 by Rangers admittedly away to Rangers but this again should serve as a guide as to what Celtic should be capable of. Falkirk have not won this season, and have drawn 2 at home 0-0 and lost 2 at home 3-1.
130 - Den Haag v PSV- 1.43 away - psv unbeaten away from home, and Den Haag have lost 1-0 to 2 top 5 sides so possibility they will keep it tight against PSV
145 - Zenit St Petersburg v Terek Grozni
1.24 at home - Zenit scoring at least 2 at home with regularity and Terek are losing away so first goal for Zenit could be te call
6pm - Valencia v Zaragoza 1.51
3 draws at home and a hope this sequence will end today ( Man City nearly broke their draw sequence while 3-2 up) Zaragoza have scored in all away games and lost all bar one draw. Against top sides they have been well beaten. Valencia priced to end their draw sequence at home tonight - 1.21 over 1.5 goals involves both sides - we have seen Zaragoza can score away from home regularly so the hope is this continues
745 - Inter v Roma - you all know the drill by now. Do not back against Inter at home until the 123 run unbeaten record of Mourinho's ends.Laying ROMA at 8 is the same as backing a 1.13 shot and is worthy of support until the very very strong home stat for Mourinho is broken - 3 draws, one win and one loss away - a draw is ideal and is covered by the lay of Roma

SHORTLIST
200 HEREFORD - you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to note this one - we can call it a probability bet if the 4 horses 20/1 or bigger can be discounted - leaving 3 fighting for 2 places
NEGATIVES
-conditional jockeys
-selling hurdle
-Bureaucrat's recent form -U5F - shocking stuff -whenever you see letters in the form column you know you're in trouble
POSITIVES - as a 1/2 shot, the other horses must be "shoite" as they say in IReland, so where is the opposition. Little Firecracker is ultra consistent placer
335 HEREFORD - interesting betting forecast with only 2 under 14/1 the ones to concentrate on.Looks a 5 runner affair in the live market with peppertree now 7/1 and Zaif 16/1
INTER V ROMA - Lay Roma at 8 for fixed liability of £100 pays 1.13 equivalent back odds and it's worth opposing away teams at Inter until Jose's immense home record ends

ONE A DAY
A day full of 2 the place races, and horses of "potential" and little proven form. My one a day is a lay of Roma at 8 in the hope the Mourinho home record remains - we have stats on our side so fingers crossed.

7/11

Plenty of opportunities yesterday but I couldn't write the rest of the blog

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Sitting Tennant		1.07	200.00	Back	06-Nov-09 14:47	14.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	14.00
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	14.00
					Commission @ 4.57%:	0.64
					Net Market Total:	13.36

I spotted this one on the way back home and place backed a 1/4 shot without any look at the Racing Post, and he came 2nd so job done

1240 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pepe Simo, 5/1 Diamond Brook, Qaspal, 7/1 Eastern Paramour, Wade Farm Billy, 9/1 Doctor Foxtrot, 20/1 Miller´s Dawn, 40/1 Mrs Overall, 50/1 Kauto The Roc, 66/1 Normandy Landings, 100/1 Campfire Tales, I´m Henrietta.

DIOMED VERDICT: PEPE SIMO can put his previous jumping experience to good use.

Early race start today but this is the first race of interest. Pepe is another Walsh/Nicholls combo horse and they will place more than they don't 1.17 to place

105 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Crack Away Jack, 9/2 Calusa Crystal, 12/1 Mister Matt.

DIOMED VERDICT: CRACK AWAY JACK looks different class to his two rivals.

Stop the search here? 3 horses and 2 places and an opportunity to win back Jack and trade out at a lower price in running. A beginners chase 1.11 to place

250 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Gullible Gordon, 5/2 Kangaroo Court, 5/1 Bakbenscher, 6/1 Red Admiral.

DIOMED VERDICT: Gullible Gordon has a much harder task than at Chepstow and the promising KANGAROO COURT might just come out on top.

Surely kangaroo's absence sets this up for Gordon? 2 places and 3 horses 1.17 to place

300DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Forpadydeplasterer, 7/4 Herecomesthetruth, 11/4 Siegemaster, 12/1 Good Fella, 66/1 Saddler´s Native.

Cheltenham bound and a 3 horse race for 2 places - illiquid market

400 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Valentine Vic, 3/1 Pride In Battle, 9/2 Robain, 7/1 John´s Gift, 8/1 Plettenburg, 16/1 Treyarnon Bay, 33/1 Not Right Now, 50/1 Colonna Lecca, Johnny Mullen, 66/1 Bernie The Banker, 100/1 Nobbys Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: VALENTINE VIC has racecourse experience from his points in Ireland, both of them wins.

Guess who on Valentine Vic - a bumper so caution about a look in the market 1.25 to place

1245 - Paulton v norwich - 1.19 A cup game and surely an away win or will the magic of the Cup leave backers reeling. FA CUP first round should be easy pickings

3pm Man City v Burnley
1.39 Man City - like Leverkusen yesterday, City are priced to break a sequence of 4 draws - Leverkusen managed it. City have scored 2 or more in 3 of their 4 home games
Home form outstanding for Burnley, but only managed 2 goals away (both against Blackburn). Look at scores against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Spurs for an idea of likely scoreline today. 2 or more goals to nil so 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 could be likely scorelines.
I would expect this 4 draw sequence to end today

3pm - Rangers v St Mirren
1.31 - look at Celtic's 2-0 win at St Mirren as a possible guideline . Too many draws for Rangers means that I would look to trade if they score first incase it's yet another draw. In really poor form at present but it shows the weakness of the SPL that they are 1.31

3pm Tottenham v Sunderland
Goals anyone? 80% of Spurs home games have been over 2.5 goals and 60% of Sunderlands away games have been over 2.5 goals, so ,safety in mind, back over 1.5 goals

7pm - Barcelona v Mallorca
1.19 Barca. Laboured against Rubin away but should have won with the Ibra chance which hit the post. A solid and disciplined Rubin was also a factor
Excellent home form from Mallorca sees them 5th in the table. Only played one team away in the top 5 losing 2-0
Zaragoza not withstanding, ( 6 goals there), Barca have managed a 1-1 , 0-0 and 1-0 in previous games. Normally at 1.19, expectation is for goals.


SHORTLIST
Paulton v Norwich - 1.19 looks very enticing
105 SANDOWN - Crackawayjack at 1.11 to not get beaten by 2 horses ( or fall of course) in a 3 horse race looks great for me
250 WINCANTON - Gullible is 1.17 to place again in a 3 horse race and 2 places - Red Admiral cannot be discounted here so it's simply probability here and a hope Gullible finishes 1st and 2nd
3pm - Man City - chance them today at 1.39 to break a sequence of 4 draws? I would back City in the match odds market and them trade out if they score first. A chance to bump up the odds today compared to the sub 1.20 odds elsewhere
3pm Spurs - 1.24 over 1.5 goals should give an excellent run for our money

ONE A DAY
I will go for Norwich to get one over Paulton Rovers with their plumbers and plasterers and carpenters who will empty out like a horse in heavy ground over 3 miles 4 at Towcester. One of those "shocks if they lose" bets and fits into my idea of a one a day bet. Not rock solid cos it's the cup but logic dictates Naaaarrrrrrrich -it's in running too.
All bets in the shortlist look good today - some great probability bets. So, make your own decision and good luck

6/11

I knew there were goals, but ,please, Werder Bremen, score them early in the first half next time,pretty please, with sugar on top!!.Goals in the 81st and 84th minute saved face for the over 1.5 goal market. It is a game of 90 minutes I suppose and that should be remembered, but for 80 minutes the swear jar was filling to overflow.
I don't know how I let Sahara Kingdom slip the net yesterday. I guess the non runner and the fact this Godolphin horse was 1/3 in a 4 horse race brought this to my attention in the live market

Horse Racing > Ling 5th Nov : To Be Placed

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Sahara Kingdom		1.14	200.00	Back	05-Nov-09 13:45	28.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	28.00
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	28.00
					Commission @ 4.61%:	1.29
					Net Market Total:	26.71

4 horse race and 2 horses over 20/1 made the 1.14 extremely enticing for the horse not to get beaten by 2 horses in a 4 horse race , and I hope you found it too. With Godolphin banging in the winners, this was a good bet and obliged with an obvious win at 1/4 final odds.
This also shows that, with one a day betting, we need to be flexible. I write the blog, but surely it is folly to think that my one a day selection is written in stone and I must not budge from it. If there's a rock solid one bet a day opportunity in the live market, take it!!

Enhanced bets? Well Sporting Lisbon went a goal down yesterday and equalised within 6 minutes - it really is amazing how teams score once a goal down and this is the basis of enhanced betting. Shaktar did it again with a 2 goal haul - these guys are serious about the Europa Cup and worth siding with as seen with 14 goals in 4 games

FOOTBALL
to start with today

19:00

MVV Maastricht vs Omniworld

1/3

Dutch league 2 and a home team unbeaten at home but have been royally spanked away from home which is a concern.Omniworld have lost to 7 of top 8 sides but Maastricht are 12th so this ,for me, is not reflective of how they may perform this evening. NOT IN RUNNING

I would expect goals though but the only option is over/under 2.5 goals

19:30

Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt

4/11

Bundesliga league leaders unbeaten this year but 5 draws is of some small concern
3 draws on the trot and priced this evening to break that sequence.Frankfurt have beaten 2nd placed Werder Bremen away from home and again I would be confident of goals
1.25 over 1.5 goals
IN RUNNING

19:45

Bray Wanderers vs Bohemians

6/1

10/3

4/11

Not in running and I think Bohs have sown up the title ( not sure though) so motivation?

Afraid I was accosted by someone who wanted me to look at their PC while I was waiting for my M.O.T to be done, then offered me lunch so there's no way I can look thru the cards in time now! Good luck with your one a day bet today. If I find one I will show it tomorrow (if I can get away! )

5/11

Arsenal do equal goals-good 1.5 goal bet yesterday. Yet again though, your faith in Godolphin would have been rewarded with 2 winners from the races I highlighted.
Mutafajer was 2nd at Kempton so placed for my strongest horse bet yesterday.

Please excuse the lateness-again the broadband has gone inexplicably slow these past few days and I am powerless to speed it up at present
1205 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Karasiyra, 3/1 Remember When, 7/1 Endless Expanse, 10/1 Ice Empress, King´s Vintage, Takaliyda, 12/1 Frenka, 14/1 Bea Remembered, Siul Alainn, 16/1 Fortuna´s Blade, 20/1 Hen Night, Magical Memoir, New Atalanta, Reach The Stars, 25/1 Red Red Ruby, Restless Kala, 33/1 Great White Rover, Mazellie,

Heavy ground and v now odds on for Sea the stars jockey and trainer. As argued yesterday, does maret strength signify the horse can handle heavy? Is a 2 year old though and Ballydoyle and Weld/Smullen in opposition 1.24 to place

140 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Rayeni, 9/2 Rock And Roll Kid, 5/1 Libano, 6/1 Luisant, 7/1 Pollen, 8/1 Girouette, 10/1 Le Cadre Noir, 12/1 Aahaykid, Six Of Hearts, 14/1 Alexander Youth, Scarlet O´Hara, 20/1 Good Time Sue, 33/1 Trinity Scholar, 50/1 King´s Bastion.

Rayeni returns, and typical of Irish horses, is well prepared for soft and heavy going. A listed race so very competitive but Mick Kinane rarely disappoints on fancies 1.26 to place

330 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Master Lightfoot, 2/1 Quasi Congaree, 100/30 Ajjaadd, 12/1 Rightcar Dominic, 20/1 Spinning Bailiwick, 25/1 Tightrope, 33/1 Dancing Again, 66/1 Across The Sands, Riggs.

DIOMED VERDICT: MASTER LIGHTFOOT is taken to beat Quasi Congaree in an uncompetitive maiden.

5 furlong maidens rarely reach my shortlist, but only 3 are under 12/1 here, 3 of the 9 runners are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 of whom will place - Master Lightfoot has experience on all weather which is good and the past 7's in the form were in handicap company. Looks like connections want a win here? 1.2 to place

A difficult day today for the horses. Will heavy ground in Ireland mean that the races become more of a level playing field, or do we rely on the market as having factored ground conditions into the price?

FOOTBALL
2 on the trot so far at better odds usually than we'd get for horses, so a good look at Europa league
530 - Spain U19 v Wales U19
1.17 for the Spaniards here. Their under 17 colleagues face the might of, erm, Burkino faso and are 1.36-surely this is a mismatch regardless of age?
NOT IN RUNNING
6pm - Nigeria U17 v New Zealand U17
1.35- if the youth are as bad as the senior squad, this should be easy for the nippers

6pm - Sp Lisbon v Ventspils
1.27 and home advantage should ensure a win? IN PLAY
805pm - Toulouse v Shakhtar
Always factor in Shaktar because we know immediately that they take this competition extremely seriously - scored 4 at home against Toulouse.
805pm - W Bremen v Austria Vienna
1.31 - goals the main course as per usual in a Werder game?
Must win for Ze Germans here as this should guarantee they enter the knockout phase
1.17 over 1.5 goals after a 2-2 draw in Vienna

SHORTLIST
140 LEOP - Kinane/Oxx's Rayeni is familiar wit the ground - course and distance winner - 4/5 - - - -6/1 in the live market 14 runner listed event in heavy ground.
330 LING - Mister Lightfoot should be competitive here if the market is accurate. 5 furlong maidens not top of my list though - tardy starts can be punished.
530pm - Spanish under 19's look to have the edge over their Weslh colleagues here BUT NOT IN RUNNING , and as we have seen before, Spain could score the first goal and still draw and in a tradeable game, this counts as a winning bet for me
805pm- faith in Werder here at 1.17 for over 1.5 goals? If you wanted a more speculative bet, the 12 goals in 3 games Shaktar's goal market is a little more competitive. Motivation ,though, is there for Werder and over 1.5 goals have a good chance given Austria Vienna scored twice against Werder.
ONE A DAY
Heavy ground is a concern despite the market showing it should not affect Rayeni. So for the 3rd day, I will personally chance Werder v Austria Vienna over 1.5 goals at 1.17 in a tradeable game

4/11

Went to plan! Real scored and AC Milan scored for over 1.5 goals. Royal Charm won as expected and I suppose if the noises from the markets is strong, DESPITE HEAVY GROUND, then the market can be relied upon
110 NOTTS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Burj Nahar, 5/1 Gay Mirage, Salvation, 13/2 Molon Labe, 7/1 Lutine Charlie, 14/1 Ashbrittle, Welcome Bounty, 16/1 Ticket To Paradise, 20/1 Head Hunted, 25/1 Rock The Stars, 33/1 Ildiko, 40/1 Bollin Julie, 50/1 A P Ling, 66/1 Priestley, Straversjoy,

DIOMED VERDICT: Molon Labe, who had backend Group entries and is progressing along the right lines, could make his experience tell, but BURJ NAHAR is taken to maintain Godolphin's startling run of late-season form with juveniles

Deja vu (again!!) Godolphin fav well supported but debutant in a biggish field maiden 10/11 - - - 8/1 in the live market 1.33 to place- again the market is strong on this one but ,for me, relying on a 2 year old debutant to perform in soft ground on his first run is asking a lot, regardless of ability. It's the ability to handle the ground that is key


215 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Alexandros, 4/1 Young Pretender, 8/1 General Eliott, Plum Pudding, Smokey Oakey, 40/1 European Dream, 100/1 Pawan.

DIOMED VERDICT: If ALEXANDROS is back to the form of his Lockinge second he ought to be too strong for stablemate Young Pretender.

Godolphin 1 -2 in the betting - concern Alexandros was lame when last seen out . Soft ground proven though but only 2 places here 1.24 and 1.81 to place. Clear preference in the market for Alexandros here but only 2 places ( regardless of these being Godolphin runners)

230 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Straw Bear, 5/4 Somersby, 8/1 Kanad, 12/1 Slew Charm, 40/1 Olympian Boy.

0/

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks very close to being a match between last season's leading novice hurdler Somersby and former high-class hurdler STRAW BEAR, with narrow preference for the latter.

2 miles means less chance of surprising incidents. One clear outsider makes this a 50/50 race with 2 class hurdlers taking on chase fences and 2 places with 4 potential runners of interest 1.37 and 1.23 in an illiquid market for the front 2 here Both not run for some time, both debutants over chase fences. Market prefers Somersby. Any involvement here from a place only perspective should presume this race will be Somersby v Straw bear

620 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mutafajer, 7/2 Lago Indiano, 5/1 Forest Crown, 8/1 Key Light, 12/1 Welsh Artist, 14/1 Rose Aurora, She´s My Rock, 16/1 Young Simon, 66/1 Farmers Dream.

DIOMED VERDICT: Lago Indiano and Forest Crown should both be winning soon but MUTAFAJER could be hard to beat.

Only 3 under 20/1 in the live betting and another Godolphin fancy heading the market. At least we have 3 places here and no ground concerns. 1.16 to place

530 -Rubin Kazan v Barca - Barca still favs here despite the brass monkeys weather. A must win for a club expected to win , preference for goals bet again in order to have both teams playing for us given the weather conditions 1.28 over 1.5 goals. It is the weather that is the concern with Barca this evening. Can they handle sub zero?

745 - Arse v AZ - the goal kings of the Premier League return home and there must be, erm, goals in this one! 1.2 for over 1.5 goals is, again, very enticing given Arsenal's record. The fact there is a market for +2.5 goals to AZ suggests there's goals in them there hills! 1.19 for the straight back of Arsenal

745 - Fiorentina v Debrecen - look at Zurich outclassed last night for an idea of what may befall Debrecen this evening - exactly the same prices as the Arsenal game for the markets. I would suspect Debrecen will be easier to score against than AZ Alkmaar

SHORTLIST
Again, it is a question of yur faith in red hot Godolphin, more so with the soft ground.

230 WARWICK would be my first choice to consider with 2 top quality novice hurdlers tackling the chase fences after a lay off. Assumption is this will be fought out between these 2

620 KEMPTON - looks the best prospect for me today from the horse racing Mutafajer seems to only have a few rivals for the win market, making the likelihood of a place a lot easier. Note race is off in 6 hours time, so really it is better to consult the market nearer the off

Arsenal = goals ,all things being equal, and over 1.5 goals is very enticing indeed and includes both sides

Fiorentina straight back or over 1.5 goals - Debrecen should be out of their depth here

ONE A DAY
Ground concerns are most offputting, regardless of the type of form a red hot stable has been in.
The 620 Kempton would be my race of choice today for place only purposes, but I will put my one a day faith in there being goals at the Emirates this evening. Over 1.5 goals again the bet and the all important tradeable option too makes this more enticing.

3/11

Very late today - no electricity in my area and then no broadband -broadband ok now and doing this on laptop off a car battery!
Soft at Catterick and Heavy at Exeter makes a bad day even worse for punters!
You'll read lines like " major player if handling this ground" today which tells all
230 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Royal Charm, 4/1 Robo, 10/1 General Kutuzov, 11/1 Four Strong Winds, 12/1 Wine ´n Dine, 14/1 Shaking Hands, 25/1 Mysortofman, 28/1 Power Pack Jack, 50/1 Uig, 66/1 Canshebemine.

DIOMED VERDICT: Ready preference is for ROYAL CHARM, who sets a useful, clear standard on his good second in a better race than this at Sandown in February. He can make it a third win in this race in four years for Paul Nicholls.

Now 1/3 so the market thinks heavy ground will be no great burden here for another Nicholls horse

Football
Man Utd 1.45 to win - tend to get going in 2nd half and what impact will the absence of Shrek and Berba have? I'm not too taken with putting my faith in Owen up front
Milan v Real Madrid - 1.24 over 1.5 goals - Real on a revenge mission and goals going in despite Ronaldo's absence.MOTIVATION - the manager has been given 2 games to save his job - Getafe at the weekend and this one so I expect attacking football and ,of course ,poor defence to ensure over 1.5 goals. Tradeable as well
Marseilles v Zurich - 1.34 - like Debrecen , Zurich shoud be out of their depth, and again over 1.5 goals covers any shock Zurich goals
SWISS TENNIS - Djokovic 1.09 today should beat Beck
SHORTLIST
230 EXETER - Royal Charm 1.13 to place and 1.35 to win. The market expects no problems regarding heavy ground for this one - has run good to soft and soft but NOT heavy and coming off an absence -last ran Feb 09. Do we follow market confidence here blindly?
Football wise, Milan v Real Madrid over 1.5 goals at 1.25 is surprisingly big, but given motivation by Real to get some revenge, manager must win, and 3-2 last time, AND dodgy Real rearguard, we should get a great run for our money
Ditto Marseilles v Zurich - over 1.5 goals is 1.25 but may be reliant on Marseilles scoring 2 unless Zurich can shock again ( and to be fair they have found the onion bag)
ONE A DAY
I am loathe to take 1.13 about a horse coming back from an absence and running in heavy ground today so will steer towards to football and Madrid/Milan over 1.5 goals at 1.25. The motivation is there, the leaky defense and the ability for both sides to score is there too. An early goal will signify a trade for me in this to lock in profit.
Good luck,and here's hoping I get my electricity back some time soon!

2/11

Oh Me of little faith! Godolphin only went and did it again at a tasty 1.37 to place, and Galatasary won 2-0 which was mighty close to the 3-0 of Fenerbahche against similar opposition - just shows that this little system can be accurate in giving you an indication of how a team will ideally perform.

1250 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Slip, 4/1 El Distintivo, 13/2 Ci Vediamo, Hellfire Club, 11/1 Gratification, 16/1 Binfield, Departed, 20/1 Rock ´N´ Roller, Sarando, 25/1 Carbon Print, Contrada, Know Your Place, 28/1 Bagsy´s Bridge, Lady Sorcerer, 40/1 Mr Plod, 50/1 Final Son, 66/1 Bankers Bonus.

DIOMED VERDICT: SLIP has to defy a penalty for his Stratford success but he looks open to progress and the booking of Tony McCoy (5-14 for the yard) adds appeal.

It's a big field but an 11/10 - - - 6/1 price gapper with McCoy onboard . I'm put off slightly by field size and the penalty the horse has to carry 1.25 to place

120 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Like Minded, 9/2 Henry Hook, 11/2 Quartano, 13/2 Chosen Native, 14/1 Pak Jack, 28/1 Aim For The Stars, The Jolly Spoofer, 40/1 A Bid Too Far, 66/1 Silver Phoenix.

DIOMED VERDICT: LIKE MINDED brings useful bumper form to the table, having finished fourth in the Aintree equivalent of the Champion Bumper on his debut for Paul Nicholls, and can make a successful transition to hurdling. Nicholls/ Walsh combo here must be considered here given October is out of the way. Only 4 under 14/1 will hopefully play a part 1.13 to place -only 4 under 25/1 but writing at 10am means the market is not super accurate. Not run since April 2009. 205 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mureb, 5/2 Tesslam, 6/1 Gramercy, 7/1 State Fair, 8/1 Argaum, 10/1 Fivefold, 12/1 Music Maestro, 20/1 Elspeth´s Boy, 100/1 Heligoland, 200/1 Kadablue. DIOMED VERDICT: Market confidence behind Mureb would be significant but most of those that have run have shown promise, with the vote going to TESSLAM. Guess who? Godolphin again at the head of the market with Mureb, under Ted Durcan - blind faith again? Well, it paid off yesterday. 1.27 to place and another debutant but as I said yesterday, this is one red hot yard at the moment and these horses are top quality pedigrees. Of course ,debutants, by their very nature carry some risk for betting purposes 420 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: Evs Excellent Thought, 3/1 Tartufo Dolce, 7/1 Bronze Beau, 12/1 Kyoatee Kilt, Mosa Mine, 20/1 Fair Passion, Youcanalwaysdream, 25/1 Safari Camp, 33/1 Mosqueta, 50/1 Esradral. DIOMED VERDICT: EXCELLENT THOUGHT has a fair chance in this company on her turf form though inevitably there are two or three who are likely to improve with more experience. Price gapper here and placed on last 3 occasions 1.22 to place SHORTLIST No footy today on a quietish Monday. 120 KEMPTON is the first race of interest for me today with Like Minded for Ruby and Paul Nicholls in a race where, currently, only 4 are under 25/1 so if Ruby can nurse the horse around these 2 miles 5 furlongs, without major incident, then the chances of placing is very good POSITIVES - Walsh/Nicholls. Only 4 under 25/1 and Quartano (original 3rd fav) is a non runner reducing Like Minded's potential rivals. NEGATIVES - not run since April 2009 . 2 miles 5 furlongs for newcomers to jumps is a long distance to stay focussed. 205 WOLVES - while they are in such hot form, Mureb for Godolphin must be considered with another debutant winner yesterday under Ted Durcan. POSITIVES - Godolphin have won, won, won recently and backing blindly has paid off big time in the last week. Horses' sights lowered and generally they win going away. NEGATIVES - debutant so depends on how this youngster takes to racing - will he run green? Near market rival too .Lots of horses open to some progress who at least have some experience ONE A DAY That's it for me today. A very quiet Monday and I'm writing this early as I have to take my friend to the airport. Preference is to do this nearer race time to account for potential non runners and price movers, but as things stand, the 2 above are the ones I would concentrate on. I would go with time order today I think and I think the 1.13 is just an illiquid early market where market forces have not played any part yet. If I can do an update nearer to 1240 then I will as this will ensure that I have the latest information.

1/11

No log yesterday as I had a friend over and had to do the touristy thing and it would have been a bit rude to ask them to disappear for an hour or so while I wrote the football and one a day blogs!
Just looking at the football, there were plenty of opportunities - swine flu hit Blackburn and Bolton should have been opposed, Real Madrid were on a mission to save their manager in a must win, and PSV the eyecatchers at the prices ( albeit with a 1-0 win ).
Porto the previous evening was a great over 1.5 goal bet with Belenenses scoring first ( great enhanced bet too) - game ended 1-1 which again shows that over 1.5 goal betting can be less troublesome than the straight win back and would have been a good bet in the Barca match BUT with Barca generally scoring first, a trade of the lower match odds would have sufficed.
I didn't see the horse racing at all yesterday.

120 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Astral Flower, Sowaylm, 5/1 Ebony Boom, New Innocence, 11/2 Perceptive, 10/1 Tom Wade, 14/1 Mazamorra, Pleasant Way, 25/1 Highland Bridge, Jinto, 66/1 Empress Leizu, Tumbled Again.

DIOMED VERDICT: Newcomers SOWAYLM and Astral Flower are the two against the field in a race where those with experience look beatable.

With Frankie Dettori winning 6 on the trot for Godolphin, it is a bit of a negative not to see him onboard Sowaylm -Durcan takes the ride, but with the way Godolphin have been the latter end of the flat season, it is hard to oppose them.

205 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Killyglen, 4/1 Knockara Beau, 9/2 Auroras Encore, 13/2 Oumeyade, 8/1 Chief Dan George, 10/1 Watch My Back, 14/1 Crocodiles Rock, 25/1 Camden George, 200/1 The Green Hat.

DIOMED VERDICT: The weight concession of 16lb to promising KNOCKARA BEAU, who was of similar ability over hurdles, might just be beyond smart Killyglen. Auroras Encore is another promising type worth considering in an absorbing contest.

Now odds on shot under McCoy in this chase

330 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Barnhill Brownie, 9/4 Beautiful Vision, 11/4 Wychwoods Legend, 20/1 Pelo Du Bief, 25/1 Feeling Peckish, 33/1 Royal Gunner.

DIOMED VERDICT: The ground will be as quick as BARNHILL BROWNIE wants it but he still looks interesting now switched to fences.

A probability race where 3 should be fighting out for 2 places but the 3 cannot really be split in the market

FOOTBALL

11:30

Ajax vs Feyenoord

1/2

I would look to goals here in a clash of 2 of the stronger Dutch sides - there's goals in Ajax after a confidence booster against AZ Alkmaar. Feyenoord could only manage a 1-0 last time out but this signals that both teams can score.
12:00 Chernomorets vs Shakhtar
1/6 away from home - remember though if it's not in running and the hot favs score first as expected, we have no ability to manage our positions and get out as early as possible incase there is a draw
Last 3 aways have been draws for Shaktar ( a sequence that they are priced to end today, being 1/6 on to win?) A worrying stat though for a game not in running.
12:45 Dundee United vs Rangers
5/6 away from home signals a tough afternoon for out of form Rangers Dundee United drew 1-1 with Celtic and both Dundee United and Rangers are drawing far too often (in fact this has demoted Rangers to 3rd in the league - unthinkable)
Draw anyone?
A game I would avoid as could so easily be a 0-0 draw as both teams have drawn 4 times in 9 games

14:00

Galatasaray vs Sivasspor

1/4

Gala have failed to score 3 or more goals only once a home this season. Sivasspor are in poor form, and poor away form. We can guage a likely scoreline by looking at their 3-0 away defeat at Fenerbahch. Expect a similar scoreline this afternoon, all things being equal ( ie no adverse injuries to Gala) One of the more likelier bets today in a poor Sunday

15:00

Spain Youth vs Malawi Youth

1/4

Research needed to determine if this is a dead rubber and if the Spanish kids have already qualified
A quick mention for City at 4/5 away to Brum.Brum keep things tight and City are coming off the back of 3 consecutive draws. They have the ability to concede goals but it is a difficult match to get an angle on

SHORTLIST
Nothing grabs me at all today
Blind faith in Godolphin has been amply rewarded with a wheelbarrow required to take winnings away ,but generally the jockey has been a certain L Dettori. They have a debutant in the 120 Lingfield and their success is based on lowering their target races considerably and putting up generally very well bred horses in races where their pedigree indicates they are a class apart. Sometime 4 and 5 length victories recently attest to this.
Sowalym is 1.37 to place and if taken by Godolphin could be a good price, although I suspect a number of others are aware of Godolphin's recent record and the price is probably unnaturally low
Of the football matches, the only game of interest for me ( put it this way - the game with the least niggles !!) is the Galatasary game. Only once have they failed to score 3 or more at home, and they are playing 3rd from bottom team who have lost all bar one drawn match away from home.
The key stat for me is that Fenerbache ( who I would equate closely with Gala) won 3-0 at home against Sivasspor - marry that with the fact Gala have scored 3 or more at home on all bar one occasion, and we can, I hope, predict a goal or 2 from the home side.
1.31 to win, and the bet is weakened by the fact this is ,for some reason, not in running. No over 1.5 goal market is disappointing and pretty much bangs the nail in the coffin regarding my interest in proceedings today.
Over 2.5 goals is 1.44 in the Young Boys v Luzern game, and considering the Young Boys have only failed to get overs twice this term, and you realise this short price is short for a reason. Warning though, a few games have a 2-1 scoreline and this assumes then, faith in the opposition scoring on - BUT again not in running.

CONCLUSION - a day to leave alone given the fancies are not in running, and the horse racing is not appealing from a place only perspective. Non runners may change the complexion of some races. If you are taken by Godolphin then there's a 1.37 available on a debutant to keep the exceptional Godolphin run going.
NO BET DAY FOR ME TODAY