30/9

Ghost dancer placed, Horseradish placed ( and if I had live chat up this would have been the one with massive support into 2/5), Whispering wind won, Overrule placed, Arsenl won, Barca won, Sternlight won, but Viking dancer 4th.
Wrong decision with all the opportunities yesterday! Why I did not have Barca as my one a day I don't know - instead relied on those fecking 2 year olds!
Still, I hope you spotted 3 enhanced bets in the football last night to compensate
1) Rubin Kazan score a 9th minute goal v Inter Milan. Back Inter at 4.4, Inter equalise, green up at 2.26
2) Arsenal were backable (1.25 pre game) at 1.85 and eventually got the breakthrough
3) Liverpool I backed at 17.5 for £10 when 2-0 down - this enhanced bet did not come off as Liverpool failed to score
So some returns personally yesterday but a frustration with so many hinted at races producing placed horses.

Interesting to see Valid Point unplaced - one run too many - the key - change to all weather

140 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Wishbone, 5/2 Brinscall, 4/1 Love And Devotion, 10/1 Tobouggie On Down, 12/1 Timeless Elegance, 14/1 Path Of Peace, 20/1 Hedgerow,

DIOMED VERDICT: WISHBONE has shown more than enough in better races than this one to suggest she's the one to beat.

Yet again we are blighted with 2 year old maidens. Here Wishbone is currently odds on , has had a couple of runs , and is in a 7 runner race where only 3 are under 16/1. But, hmmm Betty, Frank is onboard.- only 2 places and I cannot trust the jockey


230 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Bagber, 4/1 Salybia Bay, 9/2 Sixties Swinger, 8/1 By Command.

DIOMED VERDICT: BAGBER looks likely to give his running and will be hard to beat. Bagber rings a bell as a previous one a dayer, and has those words " hard to beat" which I like to see ( Grenfall yesterday - check out Diomed's comment - " hard to beat" and he won at 7/2) A 50/50 race this and 2 places -Ryan Moore onboard, but we know by now that 2 places means we have no room for error 1.3 to place in a race where the odds do not really offer us any outsiders 340 SALISBURY BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Fremont, 9/2 Side Glance, 11/2 Folly Bridge, 8/1 Antonius Moris, 12/1 Kumbeshwar. DIOMED VERDICT: FREMONT made a really encouraging comeback at Doncaster last time and can get back to winning ways. Fresh from a bumper pay day in the Goffs Millions at the weekend, Richard "loadsamoney" Hughes partners Fremont in yet another 2 year old race 1.24 to place 820 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Mubrook, 3/1 Buckie Boy, 9/2 Storming Sioux, 25/1 Grand Exit, 33/1 Awani, Brandy Butter, Keepholdin, Sadaska, 40/1 Persian Tomcat, Superior Duchess, 66/1 Summer Affair, 100/1 Dance Gdansk, Hilltop Alchemy. DIOMED VERDICT: MUBROOK's form is easily the pick, with Buckie Boy and Storming Sioux the only others with anything significant. OH YE GODS! Another 2 year old maiden. Watch out or Sadiska -16/1 at present in a race which should revolve around 4 now (I include Sariska as it looks quite a potential mover) We assume a lot in dismissing those 25/1 or over out of hand A race to weigh up nearer 820 than midday - prices too illiquid FOOTBALL 12:30 China vs Botswana 4/11 Interesting - China take on football powerhouses, erm, Botswana but this is an international friendly 16:30 City Stars vs FC Honka 25/1 9/1 1/33 Finnish cup - like the Danish Cup, odds are very accurate -1.13 on Betfair (2/15) - what a discrepancy!! (I've just had some 1.13 as this is some difference to ladbrokes 1/33 (1.03)) 17:45 Brazil Youth vs Czech Republic Youth 4/9 11/4 5/1 Likley to be a bit of a test for the Samba Nippers as priced at only 4/9 19:45 Bordeaux vs Maccabi Haifa 2/7 I've been harping on about Bordeaux's imperious home record all season long-they like playing at home in their domestic leagues and score plenty. 19:45 Manchester Utd vs Wolfsburg 1/3 Unconvincing away to BEsiktas needing a Scholes header to break the deadlock.1/3 dismisses Wolfsburg out of hand and is representative of United's record in the Champions league rather than the weakness of the opponents who have goals in them 19:45 Milan vs FC Zurich 2/9 Milan have scored 3 goals in 6 games this season and are in dire form. PRiced up based on weakness of Swiss league ( Zurich scored 2 against Real Madrid, BUT were 3-0 down at the time). I couldn't back Milan at present, with the ridiculous appointment of Leonardo as head coach ( I think it's the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle called Leonardo judged by this season's results) 19:45 Real Madrid vs Marseille 2/9 Those who have followed Real this season will have had the prayer mat out on a couple of occasions. They have scored LATE goals on numerous occasions against inferior opposition ( Xerez - Ronaldo early goal assuaged fears, but took until 70+ minutes for 2nd) All 3 goals against Tenerife came 2nd half latest. Now if Real have had trouble with the likes of Xerzes and Tenerife (albeit impressive final scorelines) then Marseilles could prove formidable opposition and the 2/9 early back plenty short enough for me. A tradeable price perhaps against a french side whos only defeat came with a late 84th minute goal last game 19:45 Apoel Nicosia vs Chelsea 11/1 4/1 2/7 I wouldn't read too much into Apoel's 0-0 at Athletico - says more about the Spaniards than the Cypriots. Chelsea's defeat at the weekend was down to the sending off and Ashley Cole's injury reducing the team to 9 . One of those games. Look prior to the sending off and it was 1-1 with 11 v 11 and no penalities. So no panic stations here for Chelsea. SHORTLIST Well, win or lose, I have personally backed FC Honka , a 1/33 shot with Ladbrokes, at 1.13 on Betfair ( 2/15) simply because of the discrepancy in the odds and nothing else I am no Finnish Cup expert Average odds for bookies is generally 1.05 with Betair and Bet 365 standout at 1.10. So they know something? Why do ladbrokes go so short? It's not in running but I hope that the rick at betfair is not hiding some plague that has befallen FC Honka, who must play now with only the tea lady up front. 340 SALISBURY would be a race of interest , because of Richard Hughes more than anything, but 2 places and 2 year olds are the concern 820 Kempton is definitely a race I will come back to nearer to 820 as it looks ideal for a probability bet. ONE A DAY For me is FC Honka away to City Stars at 1.13 simply because ,in general, the bookies are showing 1.05 and Ladbrokes 1.03. It may lose, and is not in running, but I am getting value. ( so strictly it's not a solid -surprise-if-it-loses-bet ) The Champions League looks tough this evening and all of the ultra short priced favourites seem to readily dismiss sides which are actually not worthy of such dismissive odds. No nailed on Barca like team tonight. 820 Kempton looks the best horse race but will need looking at nearer the off Closest for me is Chelsea against Apoel, and they should make the breakthrough?

29/9

Duty and destiny placed and exemplary won so job done

210 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ghost Dancer, 11/2 Equipe De Nuit, 7/1 Abhainn, Green Velvet, 8/1 Namu, 10/1 Bold Ring, Chasca, 12/1 Golden Dixie, Nativity, 20/1 Royal Manor, 25/1 Blushing Maid, 33/1 Bahamian Ceilidh.

DIOMED VERDICT: The in-form GHOST DANCER has solid credentials for a race like this.

Price gapper and shorter in the live betting market - 6/5 to evens - 1.26 to place

250 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Horseradish, 9/2 True To Form, 6/1 Hambleton, Hounds Ditch, 9/1 House Of Rules, 16/1 Cookie Galore, Marjolly, Phoenix Rose, 20/1 Usquaebach, 28/1 Atherton, Goodison Goal, 40/1 Amenable, 66/1 Bombay Mist,

DIOMED VERDICT: HORSERADISH, whose yard is 2-4 with juveniles here in recent seasons, showed more than enough at Ayr to suggest he can win a race of this nature, assuming he will take to Fibresand.

Price gapper now odds on but another one time out maiden fav, but we can't ignore the market confidence 1.13 to place - as hinted at the horse is all weather debutant


300 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Overrule, 7/2 Stagecoach Pearl, 9/2 Dr Kildare, 10/1 Skylancer, 20/1 Anay Car, 25/1 Andorn, Pistol Hill, 66/1 Fell Pack, Flashy Max, 100/1 Piccolo Pride, Tank Commander, 250/1 Maynooth Prince.

DIOMED VERDICT: OVERRULE was impressive last time and can win again.

Only 3 under 12/1 and possibly Andorn is a market mover - hint of 16/1 and 14/1 there 1.18 to place

305 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Whispering Wind, 9/2 Island Lass, 7/1 Nicomedia, 8/1 Diamond Key, Equation, 10/1 Lip Gloss, 12/1 Sheupshedownshe, 14/1 Beech View, 16/1 Molly Maher, 20/1 Ihavenoidea, Miramalfi, Parquetry, 25/1 Idle Words, Sunset Susie, 33/1 Princess Misty, 50/1 Castletara Edleen, Rowan Dancer.

Seems to be a lot of potentials today - Whispering wind is odds on and has Barry Geraghty on board -this is 2 miles so, for jumps, will be over quickly enough - the key is to keep the horse out of trouble and faith in Mr Geraghty 1.19 to place

310 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Viking Dancer, 5/2 Music Maestro, 4/1 Sternlight, 9/2 Landowner, 7/1 Tislaam, 50/1 Kilmanseck, 66/1 Drubinca, 100/1 Avon Grounds, 200/1 Little Buddy.

DIOMED VERDICT: VIKING DANCER has been going forward from race to race and looks the one to beat.

With Music Maestro an important non runner, this should open things up to Viking dancer in what looks, so far, to be the best probability race of the day - 6 run and 3 places make this a good race to focus on - but Viking dancer is 1.08 which is inevitable really
Look at the betting forecast originally - 5 horses under 50/1 - Tislaam and Musical maestro are 2 of those 5 who don't run now. Can we enhance the odds with a place back of Sternlight at 1.25?

405 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Charminamix, 6/1 Adare Manor, 8/1 Piper´s Knowe, 9/1 Charming Hymn, 10/1 French Riviera, Slieve Rocket, Takestan, 14/1 Altnadua, Go Dana Le Pras, Quai Du Roi, 16/1 Arviz, Deputy Consort, Lightening Sky, Old Shyan, Ridge Boy, Ringned, 25/1 A New Rising, Smooth Notion,

Ruby Walsh for Tony Martin cannot be ignored especially on a price gapper, but a 17 runner field may cause traffic problems - that said Ruby, like Barry Geraghty, can be trusted - 1.4 to place

450 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Valid Point, 9/2 Monetary Fund, 7/1 Lucky Punt, 10/1 Brilliana, Interdiamonds, 14/1 Royal Trooper.

DIOMED VERDICT: VALID POINT (nap) can race off the same mark as when completing a five-timer at Pontefract last week so is likely to be tough to beat as long as he handles the surface.

I was surprised that Valid point completed the 5 timer, and we are looking for clues that this winning run will end, as inevitably it will some time.
BUT he is still odds on, and the weight rise we would want to see has not materialised.1.26 to place - 5 runners and 2 places

FOOTBALL
Arsenal v Olympiakos - 1.27 to win - Arsenal have been good and reliable at home in Champions league. Olympiakos are typical Greek - low scoring generally

Barcelona v Dinamo Kiev - 1.12 to win - ultra reliable this season and a must-include until tthey don't win

South Korea under 20 v Germany under 20 - 1.37 for the Germans - will they show the efficiency of their senior counterparts? If so, then this is a nice price. The under 20's pricings have generally been accurate ( bar Venezuela v Nigeria when Nigeria were reduced to 1 men)

SHORTLIST
310 WARWICK stands out as a 50/50 race - 6 runners and 3 places - Viking dancer at 1.08 is obvious and a risk could be taken on Sternlight at 1.26 to place given there are still 3 outsiders (whose prices in the live market have obviously shortened given the short priced non runners, but I don't equate this with any market moves or market confidence)
Barcelona at 1.12 are ultra reliable this season and Ibra is scoring , and scoring regularly. Messi is still a maestro and Eto'o is long forgotten. This Barca side this season are backable at short prices until they lose/draw (but the fact they score so regularly means they are great trading prospects)

ONE A DAY
Now ,for me, I can go 3 ways here
1) place back Viking dancer at 1.08 to place - will he get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race?
2) place back Viking dancer and back Barcelona ( and trade out if, as expected, Barca score first) -this will enhance the 1.08 on Viking ( we are assuming he places of course!!) - the key here is to trade the football rather than leave it
3) place back Sternlight at 1.24 (market slightly illiquid and price could increase) - the idea here is that the betting forecast had 5 horses under 50/1 - now 3 remain and the assumption is the outsiders are still outsiders. Again, will Sternlight get beaten by 3 other horses in a 6 horse race?
YOU DECIDE!
THere are many good opportunities today and the 310, for me, represents the best probability chance. IF we are strict, then Viking dancer to place would fit into the category of a shock if he doesn't place one a day bet
Me? I will be going for option 2 myself today to help bump up the 1.08. My aith in Barca remains.
I would not put anyone off Sternlight placing at better odds either ,so if you fancy a probability gamble, this one offers the bestodds

28/9

No problems with St Nicholas Abbey yesterday. BRazil nippers scored plenty and look to be good things in future matches.
Races don't start til 2pm so footy to start with
tahiti under 20 v Venuzuela under 20 - 1.08 - should be an easy game for Venuzuela who should not really have won against Nigeria who were a man down
Italy under 20 v Trinidad under 20 - 1.24 - hopefully the Italy youth are as good as their senior counterparts.

210 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Rakaan, 9/2 Desert Poppy, 11/2 Memorandum, 6/1 Reddy To Star, 7/1 Annia, 15/2 Hill Of Miller, 12/1 The Two G´S, 16/1 Dream Number, 33/1 Ballachulish, 100/1 Miss Roma.

DIOMED VERDICT: Reasons to oppose the form principals and DESERT POPPY may be up to the task.

Now 5/6 and has run in better company but hint he may be exposed - but will that stop him placing? 1.15 to place - only 3 under 10/1 -last race was a class 2 so explains the poor form - 2 recent seconds in class 6 and class 4 (this is class 5) augur well despite Spotlight saying the horse has " gone the wrong way"


240 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Total Impact, 9/2 Fault, 5/1 Desperate Dan, 11/2 Misaro, 7/1 Green Lagonda, 10/1 Matterofact, Obe Gold, 14/1 Spic ´n Span, 33/1 Talamahana, 50/1 Rathmolyon, 100/1 Poppy Morris.

DIOMED VERDICT: TOTAL IMPACT is running well and must have bright prospects at this level despite the big weight

11/10 the fav and " all red" but this is a class 6 claimer - 1.22 and 5lb claimer compensating or the weight

300 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Milldown Story, 5/2 Hay Fever, 4/1 Turkish Lokum, 6/1 Catchpenny, 16/1 Commandingpresence, 20/1 Chasing Amy, 25/1 Place The Duchess, 50/1 Mrs Medley, Professor Malone, She Goes Nowhere, Valentine Bay.

DIOMED VERDICT: MILLDOWN STORY looks to have been found an ideal opportunity here and can gain a deserved first success.

Consistent placed form for the fav here in similar maiden races 1.21 to place - only 4 under 14/1 here

315 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Purple Heart, 3/1 My Point Exactly, 9/2 Keredari, 6/1 All Star Affair, Munaawer, 8/1 Palm Ridge, 10/1 Moonlight Rock, 14/1 Total Reality, 16/1 Blaze Brightly, Inaspettata, 20/1 Quarton, 25/1 Baveno, Liberty Girl, Ruby Suesday, 33/1 Flog The Lot,

Rarely do Aiden O;Brien maidens go too long without a win, and Purple Heart is nicely priced with Jonny Murtagh onboard. But this is a hot race - Oxx/Kinane , Weld/Smullen , Lordan/Wachman and Prendergast/O Donoghue in opposition - illiquid market

330 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Newbury Street, 11/2 Agent Boo, 8/1 Kilt Rock, 9/1 Nabrina, 10/1 Speedyfix, 12/1 Pepper Lane, 14/1 Bathwick Gino, 16/1 Rightcar, True Red, Zaskia, 25/1 Flyinflyout, Mr Smithson, Saucy Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: Agent Boo and NEWBURY STREET may be the two to concentrate on.

Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap but watch out for Kilt Rock now 7/2 and backed - 1.44 to place and Kilt rock still being backed

340 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Duty And Destiny, 11/4 Lovely Eyes, 100/30 Exemplary, 15/2 Futurist, 20/1 Groove Master, 33/1 Mr Maximas, 40/1 Radsky, 50/1 Taliesin.

DIOMED VERDICT: DUTY AND DESTINY has run creditably in stronger-looking races and should have the necessary stamina.

Only 4 under 20/1 make this an intriguing race for place only betting and Exemplary represents the Johnston yard which I can trust especially with Joe Fanning taking the ride, but it is tight at the head of the market. 1.21 the fav , 1.26 exemplary to place

530 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Vertigo On Course, 6/1 Cheers For Thea, 7/1 Arashi, 10/1 Hypnotic, 12/1 Another Decree, Funky Munky, Hold The Star, 14/1 Sign Of The Cross, 16/1 Inside Story, King Of Legend, Womaniser, 20/1 True Decision, 33/1 Lyrical Intent.

DIOMED VERDICT: There was lots to like about the win of VERTIGO ON COURSE at Yarmouth and his red-hot stable should win more races with her.

If Britney Spears was a horse tipster she would be saying " I'm a womaniser, oh womaniser, womaniser ,womaniser etc etc" and she might be right! 16/1 in the betting forecast and currently at 6/1 in the live market and "all red" hints at a possible market mover ( well done Britney!) and the booking of a certain Guillembert may hint at a good run?
I have included this race because Vertigo on Course in a class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper like the earlier one and these tend to be competitive horses. 1.53 to place

Elsewhere I remember John ISner, the giant and he is playing Wachiramanowong in the tennis this afternoon - 1.08 is reasonable enough and he should have little difficulty as he is improving greatly and is proven.

SHORTLIST
Not too taken by the 0-60 price gappers today - they are normally reliable though.
Venezuela under 20's at 1.08 v Tahiti - bear in mind this is the price of Spain when they scoed 8 past the Tahitians - Venezuela lucky 1-0 victors against Nigeria last time out ( down to 10 men)
Italy under 20's catch the eye at 1.24 against Trinidad and Tobago and surely there should be a gulf in class here?
But do we want to place faith in under 20's remaining consistent? I personalyl know nothing about the teams bar the fact that we can assume Tahiti will have trouble ( but Venezuela are no world beaters and are debutants in this tournament too)
210 BATH - Rakaan at 1.15 to place - should involve just 4 horses and an element of recent consistency , bar the inevitable poor result in class 2 company. I disagree with Spotlight and feel Rakaan has a good chance for a place
300 WOLVES - Milltown story - another maiden who has ultra consistent placed form in a race where 5 are 40/1 or bigger, and only 4 are under 12/1 - 1.21 to place here
340 BATH - perhaps the best probability race today - only 4 under 20/1 and Duty and Destiny and Exemplary sharing favouratism at around 13/8 - fly in the ointment is the Godolphin horse at 9/1, on the cusp of the 20/1 outsiders
Exemplary of interest with the Fanning/Johnston partnership but Duty and destiny a " hard to beat" candidate - tough to chose between these 2 and any choice made would have to assume that the 2 market leaders both get placed.
Perhaps go with the favourite in the betting market at the off?

ONE A DAY
Each has their niggles today - maidens all and the best race is the 340 Bath but none of the 4 in contention can be discounted with confidence. Faith then in Duty and destiny for me as a "hard to beat" selection at 1.23 and hope this IS a 4 horse race and he finishes in the first 3. If he is not market leader at the off, I will go with the market leader.

27/9

Don't know what happened yesterday about blog getting published - loads of opportunities including my choice Rip van winkle to place at 1.17 , Spurs at 1.33, Liverpool at 1.16, Real Madrid at 1.11 and my close pals Barca at a tasty 1.31, and PSV at 1.18 so loads of one a days - hope you sniffed one out.
Enhanced bets? -Chelsea a goal down - Back Chelsea - they equalise - trade out - Chelsea go on to lose but I still profit ( remember with trading we cannot foretell the future so we get out early, even i it means sacrificing potential profit)
Twente, under Schteve , how you say, MCClaren, went a goal down at 1.25 odds and equalised and were 2-1 up 2nd half
Real Madrid 0-0 and odds of 1.11 increased to 1.27 and they won 3-0
They are there and are a solid and reliable betting method

Broadband slower than Matt le Tissier and Berbatov doing the 100 metres, so hopefully will have this done by 1st race

305 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Graceful Descent, 7/2 Birkside, 9/2 Andorn, 7/1 Shekan Star, Tesserae, 10/1 Flying Phoebe, That´s All, 33/1 Angels And Demons, 50/1 Grethel.

DIOMED VERDICT: BIRKSIDE has to concede weight all round but he is a prolific winner outside of handicap company and he'll be suited by the drop in trip and in grade.

Fav interesting place form, and twice has been a head away from a win rather than a 2nd place which would have made the form figures more impressive. A lowly seller, and can these animals be trusted to reproduce form consistently? 1.27 to place

320 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Walk On Bye, 5/1 Beethoven, 7/1 Full Mandate, King Ledley, 15/2 Air Chief Marshal, 8/1 Lucky General, 10/1 Free Judgement, 12/1 Gibraltar Blue, 14/1 Bethrah, Moran Gra, 16/1 Velvet Flicker, 20/1 Capulet Monteque, 25/1 Step In Time, 33/1 Rigid Rock, 50/1 Historic Occasion, Moonlight Cass, Reggae Dancer, Silk Slippers, 66/1 Miss Cueta, 200/1 Tamara Who.

£1 million to the winner here, and Beethoven is the shortest priced Ballydoyle horse

330 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Fosters Cross, 8/1 Beliar, New Town Bay, 14/1 Long Walk Home, Our Symphony, Vinnie, 16/1 Bachelor Affair, 20/1 Imco Tendence, Le Reveur, 25/1 Lady Laragh, 33/1 Birds Of A Feather, To The Left, 50/1 Golden Barrell, Orchard Joey, River House, Shannon Breeze, The Kiddo.

Price gapper but New town Bay has shortened the gap at 7/2
Like that short sprint fav the other day who won , it's deciding whether the short price means he's head and shoulders above, or the short price in a novice hurdle 17 runner event means he's opposable 1.17 to place

355 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 St Nicholas Abbey, 7/2 Passion For Gold, 5/1 Reiteration, 6/1 Layali Al Andalus, 10/1 Senior, 12/1 Bobbyscot, 14/1 Montecchio, 25/1 Lastofthemohicans, 50/1 Top Spin.

O'Brien /Murtagh on a shortie usually do the business 1.11 to place

430 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Azmeel, 4/1 Shakespearean, 9/2 Lord High Admiral, Stunning View, 5/1 Famous, 7/1 Cadley Road, 8/1 Marfach, 12/1 Crystal Gal, 16/1 Nurture, 20/1 Private Story, 25/1 A Mind Of Her Own, Style Queen, 33/1 Legendary Lad, On The Cusp, Utrillo, 50/1 Is Feidir Linn, 66/1 Bintalaleumydarlin, Rockin N Reelin, 100/1 Diamondgeezer Luke.

The 2nd million pound race of the day sees Azmeel now 7/4 - could this be ominous - again big competitive field 1.47 to place

540 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Good Tack, 11/4 Goat Castle, 10/1 Fairyhouse Thunder, Simbamead, 12/1 Snow Kaddy, Swing State, 20/1 Eastern Supreme, Fairynuff, Subasta, 25/1 Mister Daniel Dee, 50/1 Bucko, Princess Tahoe.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is probably heading for a newcomer with GOOD TACK the most appealing.

Eastern Surprise and Fairynuff big movers in this bumper

FOOTBALL
Juventus - 1.24 v Bologna - Juve won 4, drawn 1, won 2 at home 2-0 and 1-0.
Bologna 0-0 and 1-0 away from home - signals a potential tricky tie for Juve who may have to be patient to get the breakthrough?
Brazil u20 v costa rica under 20 - 1.24 - can we trust the nippers ?
Shaktar v Obolon -1.11 - looks like a newly promotedside who should pose no problems to SUper Cup finalists
Galatarary v Eskicehirspor - 1.24 - have won all 6 matches this season - only once have they failed to score 3 goals and that was away -consistently scored 3 or 4 at home - opponents have not lost this season and have drawn all 3 away games this season but not faced the big teams yet - 2 0-0 away games indicate potential tight defensive tactic so if Gala make the first breakthrough this could offer a good trade

SHORTLIST
This really is taking forever given the broadband
355 Curragh - St Nicholas abbey to place 1.11 -faith in Ballydoyle
Shaktar look trustworthy at 1.11 to oblige against newly promoted side.
Galatasary perhaps with a vie to trading if they score first given the oppositions likelness for drawing away from home and 0-0's away from home. Sequencially ,of course, having drawn twice 0-0 away from home, this sequence is open to being broken

ONE A DAY
St Nicholas Abbey for me today albeit at a poor price but should oblige

26/9 - sorry-looks like it didnt publish initially

8-0 Spain - bet of the decade at the odds - 1/5 half time/fulltime was a gift from the Gods
Watchi' out for Tahiti's next games especially against Nigeria who lost yesterday (man sent off) as this will be a goalfest or the Nigerian boys.

215 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Jacqueline Quest, 7/1 Marie Cuddy, 8/1 Let Them Eat Cake, 10/1 Angelena Ballerina, 12/1 A Pocketful Of Rye, 14/1 Pathway To Heaven, 20/1 Sparkling Smile, 33/1 Goodison Goal, 66/1 Lady Pacha, Madame Excelerate.

DIOMED VERDICT: JACQUELINE QUEST is hard to oppose.

hard to beat, price gapper but again only a single run. Always at Chester we have to check any draw bias .Again let the odds do the work but find a reason to justify the odds - at present the single run is the problem but plenty of non runners mean fewer opponents

240 MR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Barizan, 4/1 Forty Thirty, 9/1 Tombov, 10/1 Strikemaster, 11/1 Royal Max, 12/1 Classic Contours, 14/1 Nicky Nutjob, 16/1 Lakeman, 20/1 Miss Gibboa, 25/1 George Nympton, Strong Storm, 28/1 Richo, 33/1 Guga, 50/1 Highland Storm, 100/1 Hunting Magic.

DIOMED VERDICT: BARIZAN improved again when making all for a wide-margin win at Newton Abbot last time and ought to be very hard to catch if in the same form again.

Barizan falls into the Hard to beat category -has won last twice and market expects him to be competitive
McCoy onboard 9 if recovered from Fontwell fall earlier in week (I think he took day off yesterday)

320 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Oscar Dan Dan, 6/4 High Gales, 4/1 Beckett Rock, 14/1 Auenschutze, 25/1 Airgead Sios, 50/1 Borrowdale, Frankly Supreme, Rosanavic.
only 3 under 20/1 ,one of which is Ruby on an odds on shot - concern - 2 mile 6


355 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 King Troy, 5/2 Robert The Brave, 4/1 Khachaturian, 11/2 Postmaster, 16/1 Ruff Diamond.

DIOMED VERDICT: Robert The Brave is considered but there's a lot to like about KING TROY who has already progressed to a BHA rating of 140 and shown a really determined attitude.

Alan King - one of the big stables. The 4 for King troy in recent form was only by 2 lengths in a 16 runner field - indicates he seems to consistently be at the business end of races = places!

415 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Rip Van Winkle, 2/1 Delegator, 6/1 Aqlaam, 20/1 Zacinto,

DIOMED VERDICT: Likely RIP VAN WINKLE will try to run the stamina out of Delegator and a repeat of his last two efforts will make him a hard horse to pass.

Mouthwatering clash and surely will involve Rip and Delegator for place only purposes? One clear outsider and one fly in the ointment.

645 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Arty Crafty, 5/1 Foxtrot Charlie, 10/1 Piquante, Transformer, 12/1 Noble Dictator, 16/1 Fine Tolerance, Freedom Fire, Hip Hip Hooray, 20/1 Colangnik, Refuse Toulouse, 33/1 The Dial House, 50/1 Allexes, 100/1 Ma Patrice, Whispered Lands.

DIOMED VERDICT: Arty Crafty looks plain lazy and FOXTROT CHARLIE, who's again liable to have plenty of use made of him from the inside stall, is a sensible each-way alternative. Not a class 6 0-60 but a class 5 0-70 handicap price gapper - on a hatrick and priced to be competitive - hint of " hard to beat" about him, but hint that it's a horse that takes a lot of persuading - having said that has won twice and is a likely Prescott handicap plot to run up a sequence? choice was rip van winkle but I have no idea why it didnt publish

25/9

All shortlisters came in. Anyone interested in Ajax would have had an anxious wait or the goal..or would they? go to www.soccerstats.com and look at the goal minutes or Ajax - the majority of their goals are scored in the 2nd half, and so it proved yesterday.
2 horses mentioned yesterday - Attrapeur looked all out the winner but was done at the line.
The Curley horse won after sustained support on Betfair. God Bless Barney Curley!!

Football first as I wait for the horse markets to form

16:00

Rubin Kazan vs Amkar Perm

1/3

Won 7 at home, away side have lost 6 away - I do like these contrasting stats, and recognise Amkar as the team beaten by Fulham - 1.37 to win but not in running

17:00

Dynamo Kiev vs Zorya Lugansk

1/10

More contrasts - home team have won all 4 home, away side have lost all 3 away so odds suggest accuracy
Las head to head in March 1-0 but Dynamo have really been motoring at home - 1.12 not in running

17:45

Nigeria Youth vs Venezuela Youth

4/11

Odds were spot on yesterday for the Egyptians but then they were playing Trinidad and Tobago -1.47 in running

18:00

Unirea Urziceni vs Astra Ploitesi

3/10

A game to avoid I think - home side only been winning 1-0's at home, and away side have drawn 0-0 away a couple of times, not really indicative of a 3/10 shot - 1.3

20:30

Spain Youth vs Tahiti Youth

1/12

Now this looks a banker bet, as long as there is no complacency by the Spaniards.1.08 to win and 1.23 half time( market forces mean this is not an accurate price)

200 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Tryst, 9/2 Bawadi, 6/1 Rafiqa, Rainbow Peak, 7/1 Greylami, 12/1 Amanjena, 14/1 Dubai Crest, 25/1 Norwegian Dancer, 33/1 Charlie Cool, Jabal Tariq, 50/1 Ballinteni.

DIOMED VERDICT: The step up in trip will suit TRYST and he can acccount for some interesting 3yos

Odds on shot now and " all red" and a price gapper, ( more pronounced in the live market)-Ryan Moore onboard 1.21 to place

245 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/7 Atlaal, 8/1 Marius Maximus, 16/1 Maragna, 25/1 Mr Prize Fighter, 50/1 Ancient Oak, Sharp Shoes.

DIOMED VERDICT: ATLAAL was beaten at 1-4 last time but faces opposition of much lower calibre here and defeat would take some swallowing.

Let the odds do the work for you. 2 places so should be reasonable place only odds. 1.07 to place - 2 places

310 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Shamandar, 5/1 Dubawi Heights, 7/1 Theladyinquestion, 16/1 Danny´s Choice, 20/1 Excelling, Fardyieh, Perfect Ch´I, 25/1 Baby Dottie, Cultured Pride, 33/1 Fame Is The Spur, Jozafeen, Lenkiewicz, Magic Lantern, Royal Record, She´s Ok, 40/1 Gooseberry Bush, Pose, 50/1 Born A Dancer, Cyan Eyed, Mrs Boss, One Cool Poppy, Poppy N´Penny, Thoughtful, 66/1 Pavement Games, So Surreal, 150/1 Micky´s Bird, 200/1 Ellmollell.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHAMANDAR stands out and Dubawi Heights is the best each-way alternative.

27 2 year olds - YIKES! Glass half full - why is this one so short in such a big field
Glass half empty - surely layable with such a competitive field? 1.28 to place and 3 places - why so short? Must be a front runner to avoid any traffic problems


900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Augustusthestrong, 3/1 Dabirana, 9/2 Northgate, 5/1 Ashka, 7/1 Maziona, 20/1 Tus Gealai.

Murtagh and O'Brien and a clear price gapper here - illiquid market here

920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Veiled, 4/1 Jadalee, 13/2 Rose Row, 8/1 No Wonga, 10/1 Remember Ramon, 11/1 Sushitan, 14/1 Bushy Dell, 25/1 Cavendish, 33/1 Bull Market, 40/1 Actodos.

DIOMED VERDICT: VEILED can defy her big penalty at the expense of Jadalee.

Jadalee backed early on 1.39 and 1.43 to place the front 2

SHORTLIST
Dynamo Kiev - 1/10 shots in football generally mean 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 and home advantage too -not in running
Spain Youth was 1.11 last night and backed already to 1.08 and I can see no fault in this bet , bar complacency and youth. I mean, Tahiti!!!
200 ASCOT - Tryst is stepping up to 10 furlongs after running predominantly sprint distances (up to 8f)
Personally 1 mile 2 enters middle distance category and 8f is at the end of the sprint distances, meaning a different jockey outlook to the race
Still, odds on and backed all morning, right guy on board.Watch out or possible interest in Charlie Cool at big prices
1.21 to place is a nice price here
245 HAYDOCK -1.08 to place and 2 places means we don't want to see a repeat of his cock up at odds on last time-lowered in class and should oblige this time.
900 DUNDALK - faith in O'Brien and Murtagh who would not be hanging round til 9pm on a Friday to ride a donkey - illiquid market and 2 places-should be a reasonable price

2 Selections Chosen 1 Dinamo Kiev v Zorya (Backing Dinamo Kiev @ 1.09) 2 Spain U20 v Tahiti U20 (Backing Spain U20 @ 1.06)

Doubles Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1 and 2 1.17 £100.00 £17.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake: £100.00 Your total potential win: £17.00

Possible option here
Spain under 20 stand out like a sore thumb - you know with these one a days that we are looking for a bet where it would be a shock i it didn't oblige - well this is it!
Half time/fulltime market not liquid enough but shows 1.23 which mirrors Ladbrokes 1/5 about Spain/Spain and this could be a good option
ONE A DAY
I am taken by the above multiple but it's not necessarily one a day is it - it involves reliance on 2 teams?
SPain under 20 stand out as banker material against world football heavyweights, erm, Tahiti, but we won't get much change or 1.08 .Dinamo Kiev have won 4 at home, away side lost 3 away, spanked 4-0 and 5-0, and 3-1. Kiev have won 3-1, 3-1, 3-1, 5-0, 6-0
Looks like a goalscorer against a conceder away from home - very obvious home win, or am I missing something?
So, despite 2 teams ,it's the multiple for me at a reasonable 1.17
Of the horses, Atlaal is obvious ( and I think brought me a loser last time in the one a days) and Augustusthestrong stand out for me.

24/9

Sequencing was king yesterday
Point of light - won 6 on the trot and guess what? Lost yesterday
Rangers - drawn 0-0 last 2 games - won 2-1
Rosenborg - won 7 on the trot - drew 0-0 yesterday
Sequencing is the brainchild of tefal head, and is worthy of inclusion in any betting decisions you might make.
Elsewhere, Chelsea won 1-0 ( patience required as usually with the Ruskies)
Again ,the probability bets went very well, in particular Pigeon Island's race.I hinted that a trade could be made with Regents Secret, and he went on to win! So you could have backed him at 6 and laid him off much lower

FOOTBALL FIRST

16:30

Cluj vs Dunarea

1/7

Romanian Cup game - I know Cluj from their flirting with the Champions League where they performed well enough. 1/7 then , should be an accurate representation of their chances 1.2 and in running but illiquid market

17:00

Elfsborg vs BP

3/10

League match - Elfs have hit a bit of a wobble, but to be fair have been playing top of the table sides - 1-1 head to head - BP have not won against any of the top 5 either home or away.
Elfs have only lost one at home, and that was 2-3. They would seem to be consistent at home but away have been beaten well on a couple of occasions
1.34 and in running - we would want these shorties to score first or a trade

18:30

FC Zlatina vs Dinamo Bucharest

12/1

6/1

1/10

Again, expectation here of goals in what I presume is a Romanian Cup game. Yesterday's shorties were 1/33 and 1/20 and both won 2-1 - not what you expect, so a degree of caution but shoould prevail. The problem is I would be betting blind as I presume it will be difficult to guage team strength -1.11 to win and in running

19:00

Egypt Youth vs Trinidad Youth

4/11

Should be a sharp contrast in class here ,but dare we trust the youth. I know in my youth we all just ran after the ball all the time - I hope they'll be a bit more savvy re tactics here! 1.44

AGOVV V Ajax - 1.23 and in running. Dutch Cup game . Have suffered a couple of 0-0's recently which is most None Ajax like, but in the league have scored 13 goals in 3 games so the scoring boots have been polished and are working.The home team translate as " Apelldorn football club for teetotallers" but was changed to "Only practising together brings us together" ( good question for a pub quiz)
Play in the Eerste Division ( most famous ex player is Huntelaar) and there should be a marked difference in class here, but why the relatively big price? Cos Ajax away from home? 1.23 to win

220 PERTH

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Mcmurrough, 9/2 Reland, 6/1 Mesbaah, 14/1 Against The Wind, Jewelled Dagger, 20/1 Middlemarch, Stuff Of Dreams, 25/1 Parson´s Punch, 33/1 Allanard, Whaston, 50/1 Evelith Regent, Santiago Atitlan, 100/1 Alfie Bet, Balmacara Boy, Kiss Me Hardy, Solway Blue.

DIOMED VERDICT: McMURROUGH and Reland are by far and away the best long-term prospects and Malcolm Jefferson's inmate has already shown very smart form.

Fav is out and this may open things up for Reland for the reliable Twiston-Davies / paddy Brennan partnership -1.37

230 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Racy, 3/1 Ghost, 15/2 Karaka Jack, 14/1 Besty, 16/1 Antarctic Desert, 20/1 Ajara Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Plenty of improvement is expected from RACY now he steps up this trip. Ghost looks the one to beat. Now 2/5 and Moore for Stoute. Another dilemma - only the one run and expected to replicate and even improve from single run. 2 places only - 2 are 40/1 or bigger- 1.12 to place 240 FONTWELL - watch the betting patterns for the Barney Curley horse 250 PERTH BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mhilu, 5/2 Diablo, 9/2 Corkage, 5/1 Laborec, 7/1 Regent´s Secret, 66/1 Stainley, Waterski. DIOMED VERDICT: Nigel Twiston-Davies has a strong record in this novice chase and saddles another likely contender in DIABLO. 2 are 50/1 or bigger and dare we put confidence in Diablo with form of POPP over hurdles A 4 horse race in prospect and 2 places so something of a probability race 310 FONTWELL - watch out market move on Attrapeur 320 PERTH BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Billie Magern, 3/1 Talkin´ Tough, The Shepherd, 7/1 Ambrose Princess, 8/1 Russian War, 10/1 Playing The Field, 100/1 Ashtonmore. DIOMED VERDICT: TALKIN' TOUGH, with stamina assured, could bring Billie Magern's winning run to an end. You'll see this a lot this jumps season - possible probability races One at 66/1 reduces this to a 4 horse race where 3 are 2/1 or thereabouts. Another sequencer in Billie Magern on a 4 timer and given 2 close in the betting, could be a good opportunity to tae him on and end the winning run. Choc Thornton on Talkin tough and I like this jockey - thoroughly genuine and gives 100% at all times- 1.43 to place 340 FONT BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Lady Hillingdon, 11/8 Walamo, 16/1 Dot´s Delight, 20/1 Broadway Allstar, 25/1 Rowan River, 66/1 Sky By Night. DIOMED VERDICT: LADY HILLINGDON can see off Walamo. A prospective 2 horse race IF the market leaders don't fall/get pulled up/unseat and AP McCoy on the fav now 4/7- 1.14 to place 410 FONT BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Helvetio, Joshua, 13/2 Avoine, 7/1 Laconicos, 8/1 Scholar King, Tiger Moss, 9/1 Winning Show, 12/1 Albert Park, 16/1 Lough Beg, 20/1 Beech Games, Panadin, 25/1 Castlemaine Vic. DIOMED VERDICT: AVOINE could be up to winning a weak contest for a yard in decent form. Fav now all red and 7/4 - money down after a change of stable? Not run since June 2009-1.17 to place 430 PONTE BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Musaafer, 7/2 Florensky, 5/1 Finest Reserve, 14/1 Architrave, Red Barcelona, 33/1 Dubawi King, Meetings Man, 66/1 Lord Victor, 100/1 Spirit Land. DIOMED VERDICT: Group 1 entry MUSAAFER can go one better than on his debut, though Florensky is worth watching for market confidence. Another maiden with a single run on the all weather, albeit promising. group entries the reason behind the short price-1.09 to place 500 PONTE BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Valid Point, 9/2 Chalice Welcome, 6/1 Princess Flame, 8/1 Jeer, Mister Fizzbomb, 11/1 Nice Time, 14/1 Avitus, 16/1 Betteras Bertie. ali DIOMED VERDICT: Placing horses to run up a sequence is second nature to the supremely astute Sir Mark Prescott and VALID POINT has bright prospects of completing a five-timer. Valid Point on a 5 timer - Point of light beaten yesterday. Same again today? BUT Chalice welcome, nearest rival ,is a non runner which makes the chance of Valid placing at least a little stronger Jeer is the market mover into 7/2- 1.23 to place 630 Kemp BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Blue Nymph, 5/2 Custody, 3/1 Rougham, 5/1 Alhaque, 16/1 Edgefour, 33/1 Be Kind, 50/1 Court Princess, Walls Way, 100/1 Bristol Delauriere, Hilltop Alchemy, The Beat Is On. DIOMED VERDICT: BLUE NYMPH has already produced more than enough, including round here, to suggest she can win at this level. 3 2nd placing -1.23 to place shortlist FC CLUJ - home advantage and pedigree should help Cluj get the odds - caution - cup game and we don't have readily available team news AGOVV v Ajax - 1.23 is a big price for a Premier league side versus a bunch of teetotallers, could be a good trading game if Ajax score first as the odds suggest 220 Perth0 Reland is now 7/4 and one of 4 only under 16/1 - good trainer/jockey combo but not run since April 2009 - 1.37 a big price 230 ponte - yes another one time outer -1.12 to place and only 2 places -Ryan Moore rarely messes up on 2/5 shots in the win market, so place could come in - negatives - 2 year olds and 2 places 320 perth - 4 runners - 2 places - one clear outsider - one horse on a 4 timer. Talking tough would be my selection under Choc but caution -3 horses cannot be split by the market so inevitably one will not place, but which one? 1.43 tells us these 3 can't be split so the hope is Bille Magern's winning run will end - best probability race of the day and very much a "hit and hope" race - 3 horses who the market cannot separate - 2 will place, 1 will not - YOU DECIDE! 340 fontwell - AP McCoy, like Ryan Moore, is always reassuring on a shortie-1.14- but 2 places again here and only 2 under 16/1 , with Richard Johnson on Wolamo.-2 places here 430 ponte - Musafer is very much a talking horse ,but as earlier, is a maiden with one sole run priced largely on reputation and a hope of replicating single run - 1.09 to place and 3 places ONE A DAY Jumps back in force today and of course we now have obstacles to consider. 2 place races predoinantly mean that faith in jockeys takes over. Today we have maidens with only 1 run expected to win on 2nd run, we have horses over jumps coming back from summer lay-offs. For me, faith in the market for Racy at 1.12 - reasonable enough odds. - clincher could be the 2 horses at 40/1 or bigger Football wise, trade on Ajax at 1.23 after they score the first goal. 340 font with Mccoy would conclude my shortlist of the shortlisters I hate 2 the place races but there is little alternatives today. So time order and I hope Racy places at 1.12 -a bit of a risk but he's 1/3 in places now so money is for him.

23/9

Oh how I love Barca! 3-0 AFTER 20 minutes. Hope you went for the better odds.
Game stalker won but price was compromised by one more non runner
Bayern won 5-0 and won 2-0 at half time so that option was profitable.

145 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Cash Queen Anna, 7/2 Fighting Talk, 9/2 Art Excellence, 13/2 Baraconti, Happy Dubai, 8/1 Much Acclaimed, 10/1 Weekend Millionair, 20/1 Bollin Jasmine, 66/1 Avon Grounds, Check The Anchor, Naughty Norris.

DIOMED VERDICT: Cash Queen Anna has the best form of those with experience but she's had a few chances already and FIGHTING TALK is one of the more interesting newcomers.

Odds on shot has placed in last 3 races but this is another big field maiden 1.13 to place

345 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Twice Over, 4/1 Perfect Stride, 13/2 Fanjura, 14/1 Re Barolo, 16/1 Montaff.

DIOMED VERDICT: TWICE OVER is a Group 1 performer who should win again.

4 horse race, 2 places and one 25/1 shot -should be a 3 horse race and 2 places 1.09 to place in a race where only 3 should be considered

455 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Point Of Light, 4/1 Trachonitis, 8/1 Maslak, 9/1 Come April, 14/1 Pelham Crescent, 16/1 Buddy Holly, Gross Prophet, 20/1 Holden Eagle, 25/1 Weststern, 33/1 Capable Guest, 66/1 Zaif, 100/1 Amwell Brave.

DIOMED VERDICT: POINT OF LIGHT (nap), who bids for his seventh win in a row, looks a more reliable option than the back-to-form Trachonitis and there are no other persuasive places to turn.

Price gapper here and has won 6 on the trot. Now this WILL end but Point is priced at odds on again here. Usually there is a hint in the market when the winning run is due to end 1.36 to place

520 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Pigeon Island, 3/1 Regent´s Secret, 66/1 Sawyer´s Gold.

DIOMED VERDICT: PIGEON ISLAND, who has been rated as high as 145 over hurdles, should be difficult to beat in a weak contest on his chasing debut, barring any accidents.

A hard to beat selection. Not sure if there'll be a place market - could also be a possible win bet to lay off 1.08 to place -horse would seem to just need to stay on its feet over the jumps -40/1 outsider should make this a match - perhaps a chance on Regents secret at 1.17. I would also consider backing Regents at 6 and laying off at 4.5 in running?
Pigeon has not run since November 2008

550 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Looby Loo, 2/1 Edith´s Boy, 11/1 Roodee King, 14/1 Rapanui Belle, 20/1 You´relikemefrank, 25/1 Noverre To Hide, 28/1 Spring Bridge,

DIOMED VERDICT: If LOOBY LOO has inherited even a fair proportion of the ability of her Group 1-winning half-brother Dutch Art, she is highly likely to make this belated debut a winning one.

Interesting mover in Edith's Boy into odds on favouratism now 1.1 to place - is the market move the clincher here?

FOOTBALL
The Cup games afford us mismatches which can be exploited

15:00

Hetman Zamosc vs Wisła Kraków

10/1

4/1

1/5

Polish Cup 1/5 away side and home side 10/1 to win 1.15 -no interest in this match -illiquid market and NOT in running

15:00

Piast Kobylin vs Cracovia

13/2

7/2

3/10

Not as strong as the first bet ( in Ladbrokes eyes) 1.31 and again as above

15:30

Blokhus FC vs Brondby

17/1

13/2

1/12

Scandinavian cup odds are generally very accurate ( team news important here as Brondby might field a weakened side?) As ever, 1/12 signals 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 wins generally 1.1 and only 2 markets available here - again no market interest on Betfair

17:00

Helsingor vs FC Copenhagen

24/1

9/1

1/33

Again we would be looking to enhance odds here either with half time bet, or goals bet (under Elite 3000) - 1.07 away win and only 2 markets and not in running - have won their last 5 games but league is lowly

17:00

Sweden Women vs Belgium Women

1/20

8/1

18/1

Woman's World Cup - strong in the Euro's where, when priced at 1/3, they won with ease. So reliable enough for ladies ( will want to see the 2 girls rom Abba upfront) - can't find on Betfair

18:00

Werder Bremen vs St.Pauli

2/7

7/2

7/1

German Cup -you now Werder by now - goals goals goals ( apart from the 0-0 when I put them up) - 1.35 to win -in running

19:00

Villarreal vs Real Madrid

9/2

11/4

8/13

A league match and 8/13 should be noted. Cannot be as trusted as Barca to deliver. Took an age to get the 2nd against Xerez.
8/13 could look massive at 845pm!! Ronaldo has been superb and could score again tonight. Horseface had a run out last game and what a player/horse to have on the bench. 1.64 to win - ronny 2.14 to score

19:30

Osnabruck vs Hamburg

9/1

7/2

1/4

Big boys are out and away from home. The odds were accurate in last night's German Cup games - needless to say team news important in ALL cup games 1.33

19:30

Lubeck vs Stuttgart

9/1

7/2

1/4

as above 1.31 to win

19:35

Queen of the South vs Rangers

11/1

9/2

1/4

Rangers and Celtic have both been very poor in the League - can they be trusted here in the Scottish Cup - which, to be honest, the Old Firm have always reached the Semis in.1.29 - expectation for goals against this lower league side - 2 goalless draws for Rangers recently shoulc be broken tonight

19:45

Aston Villa vs Cardiff

4/9

10/3

6/1

Great run from the Villans at the moment. The premiership clubs proved the gulf in class last night. More of the same tonight 1.47

19:45

Chelsea vs QPR

1/5

11/2

11/1

Odds look spot on here surely, even for a weakened Chelsea side? 1.21 QPR won their last 2 and have drawn 4 - expectation, logically, for Chelsea win

19:45

Inter vs Napoli

2/5

10/3

7/1

Seria A match this one, and remember the Mourinho home record. Take a while to warm up Inter so a possible late back at better odds if this interests ( for me laying Napoli probably better given the Mourinho home record factor)- Napoli lost 2 away and have scored twice, so mental note if they score first - enhanced bet 1.43

19:45

Rosenborg vs Tromso

4/11

Home team simply ultra consistent and have not lost this season. Easy home win last time out at similar odds should be replicated ( winning /unbeaten streaks do end sometime, but tonight?) - won 13 of last 14 - won last 7 at home - 4-2 at Tromso last time. 1.38

19:45

Falkirk vs Celtic

7/1

10/3

2/5

The Old Firm are not losing but they're not winning, which would lean me towards laying Falkirk - Rangers beat Falkirk 4-1 which should indicate possible scoreline
. Celtic have only lost one, but needed a miraculous late goal against Hearts to record a win. Against those at Falkirk's end of the table, 5-2 v St Johnstone mirrors the 4-1 Rangers scoreline .Team news important. I would like to see Geady playing

20:00

Manchester City vs Fulham

2/5

10/3

7/1

Should be defence against attack here. The Racing Post yesterday indicated that Sparky would play a strong side - if so then the hope is for goals and for City to score first 1.41 to win

20:00

Manchester Utd vs Wolves

3/10

4/1

9/1

A distraction for Wolves me thinks - they would far prefer Premiership survival to Carling Cup heroics. Team news again important but United have great strength in depth 1.31

As you can see, Euro Cup games afford us a wealth of minnows versus majors , and with so many opportunities, it is simply a matter of chosing the best of these and hope it obliges for the one a day. The likelihood is the one a day will be a footy bet rathe than a horse bet

SHORtLIST
345 GOODWOOD - Twice over has an excellent oportunity to place in a race where only 3 should be involved for 2 places 1.09 to place
520 Perth - 1.08 to beat 1 horse to place for this 1/5 shot -question mark over fitness after last run November 2008
Blokhus v Brondby - playing in 2nd division west - Brondby at 1.1 should find this easy
Elite 3000 Helsingsor v FC Copenhagen 1.07
(possibility of a multiple here as the one a day?)
Osnabruck (regionalnord) v Hamburg (won 4, drawn 2) - 1.33 looks a gulf in class
Queen of the south v Rangers -1.29 - included from a sequencing perspective. How often do you think Rangers will draw 3 games 0-0 in a row? Here they have the prefect opportunity to break the sequence against weaker opposition
Chelsea at 1.21 should beat QPR at home
Rosenborg 1.38 - I was talking about sequencing with Rangers and am aware that Rosenborg may falter sometime with their unbeaten run ( that said, Bordeaux went unbeaten at home all last season)
The 2 manchesters could be considered with team news
Man Utd at 1.31 would be my preference with Wolves's minds elsewhere I suspect

ONE A DAY
It's days like this with so much choice where we inevitaably pick the nailed on place horse who unplaces in a 3 horse race ( 2 places) or the one team that manages a 0-0 where the rest win!
There are just so many good opportunities today
I will chance Chelsea at home at 1.21 - in running and tradeable
Chance too ,alternatively, on Rangers away to Queen of the South at 1.29 ( again in running and tradeable and should expect the 0-0 draws last 2 games sequence to end)

22/9 UPDATE

Good to see the horses winning. No problems with either selection yesterday.
Enhanced bets ahoy! Galatasary (1.25) go a goal down and are backable at evens and win 3-1
Sporting lisbon ( 1.3) go 2-0 down in 2 minutes and are backable at 5.1. They win 3-2
I traded out of both of these games after one goal so missed out on a near £600 payout instead of £150 (and the return o my stakes)
Just goes to show that this enhanced bets philosophy is working continuously.

Football to start with
AZ Alkmaar v Jong Ajax - 1.15 - I suspect this is a dutch cup game and this is not THE Ajax

18:00

Bayern Munich vs Oberhausen

1/12

Huge gulf in class in this Cup game - question is - what kind of a team are Bayern going to put out?
Fits into the category of bet where it would be a shock if Bayern lost or drew 1.1 to win , 1.37 to win half time.

19:00

Sevilla vs Mallorca

4/9

Usually score bucketloads at home -Bundesliga match not a cup game

19:45

Arsenal vs West Brom

4/9

Carling Cup- the Arsenal under 12's v West Brom. Both sides ,I suspec, have bigger things on their minds, but both can score goals and that could be a good neutral bet

21:00

Santander vs Barcelona

9/1

4/1

2/7s

Imperious at the weekend, Barcelona and Ibra have clicked into gear and this should ensure Barca score first for a trade 10 goals in 3 matches and one away 2-0 win
Form lines - Santander beaten by Getafe 4-1 ( Barca beat Getafe away 2-0)
Santander drew 1-1 with Athletico ( Barca beat Athletico 5-2)
This strengthens the 1.33 for Barca tonight

220 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ruthie Babe, 4/1 Pherousa, 9/2 Dusty Spirit, 5/1 Freeforaday, 11/2 Devassa, 10/1 Azif, 16/1 Diamond Affair, 20/1 Grace Jicaro.

DIOMED VERDICT: FREEFORADAY is interestingly handicapped on his second run and can upset Ruthie Babe.

All red but this is a nursery 1.32 to place but this is effectively a 2 year old handicap and over 5 furlongs

Lots of top heavy markets today which I will ignore, because 2 are over the jumps and one is a 5 furlong 2 places race.

330 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Captain Dunne, 11/4 Ishetoo, 6/1 Buachaill Dona, Percolator, 8/1 Matsunosuke, Tabaret, 25/1 Pawan, 66/1 Guertino,

DIOMED VERDICT: These races are seldom contests for the slide rule and ISHETOO may be able to reverse Portland form with Captain Dunne.

7 runners and 3 places ( need to check) - 2 clear outsiders -could wangle a probability bet here - 1.17 to place and 3 places
Another 5 furlong race will be over in a flash. 2 clear outsiders should ensure 5 horses in contention for the 3 places.
Concern is the sprint distance which does not allow for any tardiness and there are some high quality jockeys on the opponents.


400 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Namecheck, 11/4 Ostentation, 5/1 Amtaar, 7/1 Princess Emma, 33/1 Battle Study, 50/1 Henry Havelock, 66/1 Ilkley, Miss Isle Control.

DIOMED VERDICT: The step up in trip can help promising Newcastle third NAMECHECK get off the mark.

Not another 2 year old maiden! Godolphin fav has only the one run ( familiar!) but again we could look at the probability of placing angle here.
Only 3 horses under 10/1
Only 4 horses under 20/1
Only 5 horses under 50/1
So, assuming a lot, should this race revolve around the 5 under 50/1, then the fav has 2 to beat to place 1.11 to place puts a lot of faith in a 2 year old reproducing sole run.

410 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Tafaool, 7/2 Game Stalker, 13/2 Silk And Satin, 14/1 Lilly Royal, Naheell, 16/1 Bengers Lass, 25/1 Dovedon Earl, 66/1 Free Falling, Reel Hope, 100/1 Legend Of Greece.

DIOMED VERDICT: TAFAOOL, who is from an excellent Shadwell Estate family, commands plenty of respect on her Newmarket form even before factoring in likely further improvement. Price gapper fav a non runner promotes Godolphin's game stalker to fav, and strong at 2/5 3 places still? 6 runners means a 50/50 race. Will a Godolphin favourite get beaten by 3 other horses in a 6 runner race wherre 2 are 33/1 or bigger 1.48 to win and 1.07 to place - reasonable enough I suppose given the profile of the race and the 3 places. Potential bet along with Bayern Munich to bump up to 1.17 total ( but then this is not strictly one a day!) 510 STRATFORD BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 King Of The Night, 5/1 One Cool Tornado, 7/1 Iron Steve, 10/1 Gentle Jim, Naughty Naughty, Secure My Position, 14/1 Jo Joe´s Lot, Maelstrom Sea, Rhythm Seeker, 20/1 The Wee Midget, Traditional Bells, 33/1 Kemsley Lass, Late For Class, Tremonnow Tern, 66/1 Best Memory, 100/1 Cirrus Coin. DIOMED VERDICT: KING OF THE NIGHT shaped well in a race that threw up winners on his debut and is fancied to go close on this first run for his top yard. You can tell the jumps are upon us , as Paul Nicholls has a short priced price gapper in a bumper ( has this ever happened before?) Not run since June, but maximum respect for the all conquering Nicholls yard. A race to look at nearer the race time as it is a bumper, and bumpers rely on market moves as there are a lot of newcomers 1.28 to place 525 FAIRYHOUSE BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Adjaliya, 7/1 Cluain Alainn, 8/1 Daasij, Fingal Rock, 10/1 Abroad, Definate Spectacle, End Of The Affair, Greannmhar, 12/1 Bashkirov, Mid Mon Lady, Shalambar, 14/1 Dolphin Bay, 20/1 Define. Evergreen Mick Kinane on a short priced fav must be considered He still oozes class 1.66 to place SHORTLIST I am taken by the form lines mentioned above for Barca and Racing Santander. Team news (strong side)for Barca will strengthen the case but 1.33 ,in current form, looks a gift for a team who were simply superb against Athletico Madrid who are no mugs Option to trade here after Barca hopefully make the breakthrough Bayern Munich's mentality towards cup games will be born outwith team selection this evening Bundesliga 2 side Oberhausen suffered a 4-0 defeat in their last away game, and 2 big defeats sandwiched between 3 wins, but of course they will not have met a team of the calibre of Bayern Team news ultra important here for final decision making. Oh How I'd love to see Robben and Ribery both start! ( coincidence that when Ribery was brought on at the weekend, Bayern suddenly clicked?) 330 BEVERLEY - Captain Dunne is interesting because this is a potential probability race -if the 2 outsiders can be discounted - 1.17 to place very reasonable 410 Folkstone - Game stalker at 1.07 is correctly priced to beat 3 of 6 runners ( 2 are 33/1 or bigger)- looks the best probability race ( see Circumvent yesterday) ONE A DAY If we're looking or nailed on, then Game stalker appears in a probability race but is priced according to the probability that this Godolphin mount won't be beaten by 3 others in a 6 horse race Bayern Munich fills the criteria of it being a big surprise if they were not to win this match this evening ( team news, I would say is important - see Bayern website or Betfair football forum) - 6pm start allows plenty opportunity to see if they take a dismissive attitude to this game. Home advantage is good too Barcelona, I feel, can be backed at heavy odds on as they definitely deserve the price and play to the prices. 1.33 is enticing this evening and could be worth a gamble So, if we are looking at the nailed on-shock-if-they-lose bets, then Game stalker is the one, and we take our medicine at 1.07 and move on. Team news is the key in the Bayern match - if you see a strong Bayern team ,then the 1.1 is worthy of interest ( will they score in the 1st half? if so 1.37) I would personally consider doubling up with Game stalker to produce a 1.17 ish bet Want to keep faith in a reproduction of the superb football at the weekend, then Barca at 1.33 look solid ( and tradeable)

21/9

1st minute goal calmed nerves yesterday in Real Madrid game and late 2nd half was when they secured a comfortable 5-0 win ( I went for 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 dutch on footy blog )
Short odds but nailed on. Dinamo Zagreb better odds of 1.25 and 7-0 win - but I was put off by Croatian league

210 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sand Skier, 11/4 Exceedingly Bold, 9/2 Excellent Vision, 6/1 Tatiana Romanova, 10/1 Celendine, 16/1 Shayla, 25/1 Chookie Avon, 33/1 Goodison Goal, 100/1 Clayton Flick.

DIOMED VERDICT: Sand Skier and EXCEEDINGLY BOLD have accomplished easily the most of those that have run, but watch out also for the newcomers.

Johnston odds on fav at a Scorrish track. BUT is a maiden and there are some debutants-1.11 to place and stronger now in the live market

230 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dahaam, 4/1 Get A Grip, 5/1 Tom Wade, 10/1 Argaum, 14/1 King´s Realm, Persona Non Grata, 20/1 Foxtrot Foxtrot, Highland Quaich, 33/1 Dubai Phantom, The Love Guru, 66/1 High On A Hill.

DIOMED VERDICT: Experience can count and DAHAAM gets the nod ahead of Get A Grip.

Only 3 under 16/1 here and Godolphin favourite having only the one run under his belt - always a risk with these 2 year olds regardless of whether Frankie is onboard - 1.14 to place

240 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Prescription, 4/1 Fesko, 11/2 Crystal Moments, 6/1 Midnight Fantasy, 7/1 Sakhee´s Pearl, 9/1 Vitoria, 12/1 Kerrys Requiem, 14/1 Rothesay Dancer, 20/1 Suzie Quw, 40/1 Knavesmire.

DIOMED VERDICT: PRESCRIPTION may need some rain but is a fascinating contender if the ground is suitable.

Sir Mark Prescott handicap fav -watch out for the ground as it is Scotland - 1.27 to place and 7 runners and 3 places, but with the outsider at only 12/1 this looks competitive enough

410 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Passkey, 3/1 Oneofapear, 11/2 Cool Baranca, 6/1 Ettrick Mill, 12/1 Lion Road, 50/1 Trade Price, 66/1 Haunting, Mister Biscuit.

DIOMED VERDICT: PASSKEY looks to have a good opportunity.

Only 2 under 10/1 here and Passkey edging towards 1/2 here. Has the experience under the belt - 32 form is progressive and hints at a place 1.06 to place is very short

420 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Circumvent, 5/2 Muwalla, 4/1 Tominator, 13/2 Flipping, 11/1 Truly Magic, 25/1 Rainsborough.

DIOMED VERDICT: There's a lot to like about CIRCUMVENT who is a nice type physically, has shown a willing attitude on both starts and should have plenty more progress in him.

4 runner race and 3rd and 5th fav out. 50/50 race -4 runners and 2 places and the outsider can hopefully be discounted 1.2 to place in effectively a 3 horse race - head and a short head 1st and 2nd augurs well - 7/1 and 16/1 opponents - will Circumvent find 2 horses to beat him in a 4 horse race?

510 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Milton Of Campsie, 4/1 Town And Gown, 7/1 Caribbean Coral, 8/1 Dalarossie, Lambency, 14/1 Howards Tipple, 16/1 Andrasta, Berrymead, Highly Acclaimed, Rainbow Bay, 25/1 Coconut Moon, Kheylide, Nabra.

DIOMED VERDICT: Town And Gown was an eyecatcher last week but has never won and ready preference is for MILTON OF CAMPSIE. Class 6 0-65 handicap here and not a typical price gapper but a hint of a price gap, and Fallon onboard might be the place only clincher 1.65 to place is a tad big FOOTBALL The key with the football shorties is to try and determine whether the short price is justified 19:00 Kasimpasa vs Galatasaray 9/1 7/2 1/4 5 wins out of 5 for Gala, with 2 away wins at 3-2 and 2-0 16 goals scored in 5 games Kasimpasa in stark contrast have lost 5 out of 5 games, conceding 12 goals. Only conceded 1 goal last game -a change to a more defensive set up as a result of previous maulings? Could Gala be on the end of an ultra defensive performance? Looks a complete mismatch this- team news would be important 1.26 for Gala to win would be approached via trading after hopefully they make the breakthrough. 20:15 Sporting Lisbon vs Olhanense 2/9 2 wins, a draw and a loss to Braga ( not a great shock as Braga look good this early season) COncern with a lack of goals for Sporting, recent win was 1-0. Opponents are draw specialists, drawing 2 away from home this season, drawing one at home and winning one at home.Solid enough but we do not know the merit of these results given they have not faced Benfica, Sporting, porto or Braga yet. My concern is that Olhanense seem to play defensive away from home, coupled with generally unconvincing scoring from Sporting, leading to a potential frustrating match. Positives , Olhanense's form is dubious against rivals far weaker than Sporting. Sporting have home advantage. Not as solid as Galatasary at first glance SHORTLIST Galatasary look correctly priced at 1.26 to get something from this away game. Concern from a sequencing perspective, =they will lose eventually and home side will stop losing some time 210 HAmilton - Sand Skier represents Mark Johnston who has done well with his juveniles when they're fancied but 1.11 does not give too much away ( compare this 1.11 with Real madrid yesterday and tell me which was /is the safer bet!!) 420 LEICESTER - Circumvent is involved in a 50/50 4 horse race where the original outsider when it was 6 runners is still involved and can hopeully play no part. This could be a 3 horse race vying for 2 places, and 1.21 is enticing if we think 2 horses will NOT beat Circumvent ONE A DAY A case can be made for all today Sand Skier - strong support for this one - 42 form for a 2 year old maiden shows experience - BUT he is a 2 year old maiden - there are some debutants in opposition Circumvent - again we are dealing with damn 2 year olds again in this novice stakes event, and I really ddon't like 2 year olds as they are, of course, still learning and their ability to replicate previous form must be taken on trust , but from a probability perspective will he get beaten by 2 others in a 4 horse race? Galatasary are 5 from 5 and the home team have lost 5 in 5 games I'll chance time order today and hope those at 25/1 or bigger play no part, and this becomes a 5 horse race where Sand Skier can ,at least place with Joe Fanning back onboard

20/9

Job done yesterday with Arsenal and Bayern and the horses placing if you fancied them
Today, already, I see Real Madrid at 1.13 v Xerez and this surely fits into the one-a-day bracket of being a surprise if Real do not win.
220 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Quivvy Bridge, 9/2 Seedless, 5/1 Risk, 11/2 Seraphim Knight, 6/1 Sweet Seville, 20/1 Psychological, Wor Rom, 33/1 Be My Bubble, 66/1 Willybegood, 100/1 Little Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUIVVY BRIDGE (nap) really should win this if she's worthy of a 125 rating.

2nd fav out - surely AP can exploit this?

300 PLUM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Agente Romano, 100/30 Capall Eile, 5/1 Blacktoft, Sagarich, 15/2 Rampant Ronnie, 20/1 Geoffdaw, Leptis Magna, 33/1 Mr Forthright, 40/1 Rony Dony, 50/1 Castlefish.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for AGENTE ROMANO, who has the form to gain a first win under any code on his placed runs over hurdles this summer.

Only 4 under 20/1 should be the ones to focus on here

350 UTTOX

Seven Is My Number: will run only if suitable ground, states trainer

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Kangaroo Court, 9/4 Seven Is My Number, 5/1 Farinelli, 6/1 Noticeable, 9/1 Marsam, 25/1 Pilgrims Lane, 50/1 Vox Populi, 66/1 Musical Weld, 200/1 Abbey Shadow, Night Reveller.

DIOMED VERDICT: KANGAROO COURT was the pick of these over hurdles and can make the most of the weight he receives from the previous winners.

Only 5 under 25/1 here

Lots of top heavy markets today and the above races are really for me to guide me today for potential bets. The one a day must be Real Madrid with THAT line up at 1.13, I expect a goal or 2 and a comfortable enough night. Do ,though, trade out if 1.01 ( mid week 3-0 up and 3-2 scoreline caused some concern AND at 3-0 the price was 1.01 so NO excuses for complacency this time)
It would be fun, tonight, if Real Madrid's defenders turned up, but the philosophy of we'll score one more than you should see a win

19/9

Espero did take advantage of the favourite's absence in the 820 Wolves . As it happened, autacity of hope won, pires placed, Mr Mannaman won and Verdant placed
225 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Brief Look, 4/1 Cascata, 5/1 Anice Stellato, 6/1 Storyland, 7/1 Arcola, 10/1 Valmari, 16/1 It´s Dubai Dolly, 25/1 Bassinet.

DIOMED VERDICT: Anice Stellato settled much better without the blinkers last time and is respected but BRIEF LOOK has done nothing but progress all summer and is the call.

down to 7 runners and Brief Look is fancied and could place 1.27 to place

235 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Beyond Desire, 15/2 Conniption, 8/1 Jeanie Johnston, 9/1 Music Show, 12/1 Midnight Martini, 16/1 Astrophysical Jet, 20/1 Amary, 25/1 Distinctive, Hairspray, She´s A Character, 50/1 Eternal Instinct, 66/1 Catbells, 200/1 Classlin,

DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to get away from BEYOND DESIRE. Conniption looks the best each-way alternative.

Whiff of a "HTB " selection about this one but a competitive affair 1.21 to place

355 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Archie Boy, 9/4 Emmpat, 7/2 The God Of Love, 8/1 The Tin Soldier, 12/1 Sarteano, 20/1 Oran Flyer, 33/1 Leap O´Faith, 50/1 Crested Pochard, 66/1 Dawn Ledgend.

Only 4 under 25/1 and Walsh did it yesterday with Pires 1.12 to place

410 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Great Art, 5/1 Miss Kittyhawk, 13/2 Steel Stockholder, 10/1 Magic Queen, 11/1 That´s All, 12/1 Business Class, 50/1 Port Ronan, 66/1 Billy Cadiz.

DIOMED VERDICT: GREAT ART sets a decent standard for a yard which is 1-2 with 3yos here in recent years and should be hard to beat.

Great Art is now 1/3 in places - and those magic words " hard to beat " -I know there's no logic to this but when I see those words the selections tend to place at least - NOTE -3 places and 1.07 to place

435 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Critical Moment, 5/1 Lay Claim, Rasmy, 10/1 Beaumont´s Party, Colonel Carter, 14/1 Celtic Ransom, Viviani, 16/1 Painswick, Vimiero, 33/1 Optimistic Duke, 50/1 Baoli, Shamir, 66/1 Take My Hand, 200/1 Daryainur.

DIOMED VERDICT: Not a lot of form to go on but CRITICAL MOMENT looked a certain future winner when third on his debut at Newmarket and it will take a useful newcomer to lower his colours.

MArket extremely important here as a lot of debutants - price gapper fav is a price gapper who has only had the one run but apparently looked a certain future winner 1.33 to place

FOOTBALL
BAyern v Nurnberg - 1.23 to win at home. I would love to see Robben and Ribery. I think they are both superb and should provide ample ammunition for the front line
Early draws albeit against top sides, have found their scoring boots last 2 games
Nurnberg have been poor, one win was 1-0 last game - interestingly 2 draws away from home could signal defensive set up, but to be honest they have not met any team of Bayern's quality yet.
Arsenal 1.25 v Wigan. Mustbe buoyant ater their comeback midweek
I would be looking to the Man Utd 5-0 win as a guide today - given Arse should have beaten Man Utd at Old Trafford
Juve 1.33 v Livorno - 3 out of 3 for Juve and a couple of draws for Livorno, most notably v AC Milan last time out
I have tended to avoid Juve in the past as they tended not to score much, but seem to have turned a corner
Barca 1.33 v Athletico - won both games so far and Athletico have been below par this term, expect Barca to make the breakthough and ideal for trading for me

SHORTLIST
355 LISTOWEL - Archies Boy looks poised to place here for Ruby here on good ground ( Light showers around here at the moment)
1.12 to place is an illiquid price
410 Catterick - 3 places and 6 runners make this a 50/50 race and 1.07 reflects the chance of Great Art
Bayern with a trade if they score first for me looks good - really have scored bucket loads last 2 games and home advantage should see them scoring first hopefully

Arsenal at 1.25 should reflect what Man utd did to Wigan who have been poor and will striggle against the big boys

ONE A DAY
Saturdays, you would think, would open up solid opportunities in the horse racing,and I suppose the 2 shortlisters are good enough. I would prefer Great Art here in a 50/50 race and 1.07 reflects the obvious chance. Will a 1/3 shot get beaten by 3 others in a 6 horse race?
Football wise, Bayern and Arsenal are strong and will be taken with a trading perspective in mind ( I will decide based on how the teams perform if I can follow them)
So nailed on looks like Great Art, at a price reflective of this
BUT a chance, at better odds can be taken with bayern and Arse I think whose prices are realistically reflective of their chances

18/9

Second 0-0 in 3 matches for Ajax meant I made the right decision going with Alainmaar who won. All of the mentions yesterday obliged.
No surprise seeing another 3-2 scoreline for Werder - 2-0 up and the 5/6 looked massive in hindsight. Villareal still found goalscoring difficult with a late 1-0 win. BEnfica continued their goalscoring momentum with a nice 2-0- Lazio LOST to Saltsburg ( cue Lazio win next time at their place only IF they are up for it)
AS it's early, I'll start with prospective footy again

14:00

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Montana

1/6

I have heard of the former, and associate the latter with survivalists and the Amish!
Last head to head 1997 hints that Montana are promoted to the top flight
Sofia have won both games this season, albeit by a solitary goal and Montana have a nice 3-0 win under their belts
I am not an expert on Bulgarian football however

17:00

Karlsruher vs FSV Frankfurt

1/3

4-0 loss at home for this 1/3 shot last time does not inspire confidence

19:00

Legia Warsaw vs Lechia Gdańsk

1/3

This looks to be a tight affair with away side keeping things tight in their games. Away side have won twice away from home = momentum to perhaps upset the odds - a no play at 1/3 for me
Plenty of better footballing opportunities over this coming weekend
Bit of a rush now running late and usual slow Irish broadband does not help
150 ayr
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Hanson´D, 9/4 Green Lightning, 11/2 Gritstone, 8/1 George Benjamin, 16/1 Silver Socks, 20/1 Big Wave Bay, 25/1 Dinkys Diamond, 33/1 Lucky Windmill, Sixties Rock, 66/1 Acol, Monkton Vale.

DIOMED VERDICT: HANSON'D showed enough on his debut to have won most previous runnings of this race and his entries suggest he is well regarded.

risky as only one run but 1/2 now in places

200 nmkt
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dherghaam, 9/4 Suited And Booted, 5/1 Sophie´s Beau, 12/1 Dever Dream, 14/1 Little Garcon, 20/1 Hayek, Tuscan Gold, 25/1 Kerchak, Side Glance, 33/1 Free For All, 50/1 Water Gipsy, 100/1 Bookiesindex Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: The drop to sprinting looks a good move for SUITED AND BOOTED who was second to a potentially smart sort last time.

Only 3 under 14/1

305 nmkt
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Audacity Of Hope, 5/1 Arabian Pride, 6/1 Universal Circus, 7/1 Sea Lord, 10/1 Florio Vincitore, 14/1 Zinjbar.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a decent opportunity for AUDACITY OF HOPE to defy a 6lb penalty for last week's Doncaster success.

big price gapper in this handicap with Fallon on board , now 1/2

330 ayr
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mister Manannan, 5/1 Skylla, 6/1 Archers Road, Puff, 7/1 Star Rover, 8/1 Duchess Dora, 20/1 Exotic Beauty, Vanishing Grey, 33/1 Aalsmeer, 40/1 Here Now And Why, 500/1 Lady Laurem,

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a decent opportunity for MISTER MANANNAN to gain compensation for recent narrow defeats in similar company. Skylla is a likely danger.

possible hard to beat selection - listed race

415 nmkt
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Verdant, 9/2 Essexbridge, Invincible Hero, 14/1 Sassanian, 20/1 Forgotten Army, 25/1 Rock Of Eire.

DIOMED VERDICT: None of the quartet to have raced have achieved much and the well-bred VERDANT will not need to be anything special to make a winning debut. 1/2 now on reputation as debutant 505 Listowel BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pires, 4/1 Next Week, 6/1 Satu, 7/1 Tribes And Banner, 8/1 Give A Little, 10/1 Holy Road, Moscow Breeze, Onzo Mor, 14/1 Takestan, 20/1 Saddle My Dream, 25/1 L´Oiseau De Feu, Tippointernational, 50/1 Captain Bondi, Notre Dame Magic, Robin Of Munster, 100/1 Kabis Booie, Molly Alone, Scattery Island. Ruby+ Tony Martin+ odds on usually= win/place 820 wolves BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Aspro Mavro, 7/2 Espero, 5/1 Illuminative, Mr Udagawa, 16/1 At Wits End, Dark Camellia, 25/1 D´Artagnans Dream, Suzi´s Dancer, 33/1 Fulfilment, 66/1 Marina´s Ocean, Meydan Style, The Coach, Toballa. DIOMED VERDICT: ASPRO MAVRO looked sure to justify market confidence in him on his reappearance until being worn down close home. He can make amends this time. 2nd fav now strong fav shortlist/one a day rushed now and 150 is about to go off, where i personally have place backed the fav - it's a real pain when the broadband is so slow. Hansord GB / Ayr 18th Sep / 13:50 To Be Placed Hansond Back 8953231027 18-Sep-09 13:47 1.14 200.00 1.14 18-Sep-09 13:47 Horse has just won ,so sorry for not being able to get this out earlier audacity of hope is only 2 places , verdant is 2 places and a debutant expected to be a cut above, but we just don't know , pires has 17 opponents and has eased to odds against but as Ruby Walsh leaving Espero who should take advantage of the favs absence, but we need to see live market nearer the time So a pity I could not get this out by 150 and good luck if you are having a play

17/9

Enhanced bets anyone?

Soccer > Standard v Arsenal : Match Odds

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Arsenal		5.00	200.00	Back	16-Sep-09 20:02	800.00
Arsenal		3.85	259.74	Lay	16-Sep-09 20:32	-740.26
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	800.00
					Lay subtotal:	-740.26
					Market subtotal:	59.74
					Commission @ 4.2%:	2.51
					Net Market Total:	57.23

Arsenal a most unexpected 2-0 down, so I backed them for £200 at odds of 5.00 as you can see above.
Arsenal scored to make it 2-1 and the odds reduced to 3.85 as you can see above, and I laid off.
If I had kept this bet, I would have made £740 profit backing a 1/2 shot at 4/1 as Arsenal won 3-2, but I settled on the £57 guaranteed profit early -and yes, you can guess the swear jar is over flowing , but my contention is that I cannot foretell the future and would rather a profit in hand now than the prospect of more at a later time (with the attendant losses if it doesn't come in)
As mentioned in the blog yesterday, this game filled the criteria for an enhanced bet - I mentioned the gulf in class between Beligian and Premier league so I was confident Arsenal would redress the balance
Further, one of the goals was a dubious penalty, and these penalties are not down to any creativity by the home side - they can happen to either side regardless of ability. So, for me, 2-0 was rather flattering to Standard.
These enhanced bets keep popping up, and there's no reason you cannot replicate this.

Well I went for Captain Flasheart yesterday

Horse Racing > Yarm 16th Sep : To Be Placed

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Captain Flasheart		1.27	200.00	Back	16-Sep-09 13:40	54.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	54.00
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	54.00
					Commission @ 4.2%:	2.27
					Net Market Total:	51.73

and he placed with ease - another reliable 0-60 class 6 handicap price gapper
Liverpool were battered in from 1.12 at time of writing yesterday to 1.09 at the off. All value gone really but obliged. Those tempted by half time 1.39 have Dirk Kuyt to thank - a typical edgy European night when Liverpool are involved
Sevilla won 2-0 for those tempted at big odds and FC Mitjelland won 3-1 continuing the good results for ultra shorties in the Danish Cup, so all shortlisters performed admirably.

Start with Footy today

18:00

Ajax vs Timisoara

1/3

5 goals at the weekend banished a very unexpected 0-0 at home the game before. Will Ajax polish those scoring boots this evening and make home advnatage pay. Priced at 1/3 ,Timisoara can't be up to much 1.33 for the win. Romanian opponents here - Ajax should have to much you would think- I would be more worried if this game came after the 0-0 recent Ajax match, but a degree of confidence in the 5-0 impressive return to hom goal scoring form

18:00

Hertha Berlin vs Ventspils

1/4

Ventspils look to have an uphill battle on their hands 1.27 to win. Ventspils have been beaten 5-1 by FC Zurich on aggregate, and FC Zurich play in a tight and very weak Swiss league. Surely Hertha, if putting out a solid side, will win with ease

20:05

Nacional vs Werder Bremen

13/5

23/10

5/6

Goal scorers you'd think, apart from 0-0 at the weekend ( but in hindsight you can see their opponents Hannover kept things tight) - so before any goal bets in this game, check out the form of Nacional at home - tight matches historically or do they concede?) If the latter, then Werder, who ordinarily DO NOT do 0-0's, will punish them
Nacional have drawn both home games in the league 1-1 but been beaten away - 3-0 by Porto - I would put Werder above Porto in terms of ability so perhaps we can get an idea regarding possible scoreline ( being optimistic as Werder at 5/6 )

20:05

Villarreal vs Levski Sofia

1/6

Should be a gulf in class here between a strong La Liga, and poor Bulgarian league -drawn both La Liga matches 1-1 so far this season so concern regarding goal scoring for a 1/6 shot

20:05

Lazio vs Salzburg

2/5

Seria A versus Austrian league - the latter is as weak as a very weak kitten in comparison

20:05

Benfica vs BATE Borisov

1/3

Portugeuse powerhouses ( along with Porto and Sporting Lisbon) -we know that the Portugeuse league is generally weak in comparison to our league, so do your homework on Bate Borisov - they must be poor if Benfica are 1/3 - scored 12 in their last 2 games but is this the weakness of the Portugeuse opposition
I wouldn't touch Everton with stolen money this evening - they simply have not clicked thus far, and I doubt that this competition is high on the roster for this coming season
De Graafshap v Fortuna Sittup 1.27 - 4 wins from 4 at home and hold a clear advantage over opponents in head to heads. HAve been scoring freely at home so the odds look realistic. I'm no Dutch 2nd division expert but this looks about right

240 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rigidity, 9/4 Bab Al Shams, 8/1 Temple Fair, 9/1 Light The City, 20/1 Green For Luck, 100/1 Carlcol Girl,

DIOMED VERDICT: Dewhurst entry RIGIDITY sets a decent standard and will be hard to beat.

A "hard to beat" selection , only 2 horses under 11/1 , one selection at 100/1 can be discounte, leaves 5 horses and 2 places
2 places and a maiden are the negatives but the front 2 horses pretty much make up the book, and the hope is this will concern only these 2 at the business end - 1.18 to place Rigidity - I do find these " hard to beat" selections placing often, but 2 places mean we have no room for errors
It's Cecil versus Godolphin -will these 2 dominate?
Preference nearer the race time would be for the clear market leader who is Rigidity - another one time out performer expected to repeat initial encouraging run

255 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Augustusthestrong, 9/4 Duc De Savoie, 8/1 High Magic, 10/1 Fedora, 20/1 Shakuru, 25/1 Owner Occupier, Soldier Of Mercy, 33/1 Coosan Belle, Future Earner, Glorach, Moher Lady, Wheresmeneckstrap, 50/1 Aljohara, Angels Game, Born To Excel, Cloud Chaser,

Aiden O'Brien favourite here should improve for his 2 runs - 1.2 to place so there is a degree of confidence in the Betfair place market. Big field maiden though and at a provincial track in Kerry

440 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Veiled, 15/8 Saborido, 10/1 Cavendish, 16/1 Alittlemoreflair, Wannarock, 20/1 Present.

DIOMED VERDICT: Only SABORIDO and Veiled can be given a realistic chance, with preference for Saborido.

3rd fav a non runner should enhance the chances of the 1st 2, but 7 lb claimer Rosie Jessop is a slight negative on the fav 1.26 for Veiled to place

500 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Alainmaar, 15/8 Capeability, 14/1 Feathered Crown, 16/1 Freda´s Rose, 33/1 Falcon´s Tribute, Obara D´Avril, 50/1 Right You Are, 100/1 Billy Simmonds, Convitezza, Mistic Academy.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALAINMAAR ought to get the better of Capability given the promise of his first run.

Only 2 under 14/1 and the fav now 2/5 - a maiden race and the hope is the form of the fav on his only run can be replicated 1.07 to place Alainmaar who is the one they have come for at time of writing

540 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Aeroplane, 9/2 Flawed Genius, 11/2 Orpenindeed, 6/1 Gallantry, 8/1 Beauchamp Viceroy, 10/1 Autumn Blades, 16/1 Obe Royal, Statute Book, 20/1 Royal Envoy, 25/1 Sea Land, 33/1 Zennerman, 50/1 Alan Devonshire.

DIOMED VERDICT: AEROPLANE is different class to these at his best and is fancied to make light of top weight.

Odds on price gapper in the live betting market . Negatives - odds on shots in handicaps generally are opposable, and Frank on board - will his beret slip over his head while riding, enabling him to magic up a 4th place? 1.23 for Aeroplane to place
810 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Lady Francesca, 5/2 Expressive, 11/2 Cappagh Strand, 10/1 Herecomethegirls, 25/1 Broughtons Point, 100/1 Barathea´s Acclaim, Bonnie Bea, Pinewood Lulu, Spin Sister,

DIOMED VERDICT: LADY FRANCESCA boasts worthwhile form in much stronger races and merits another chance.

A lot of top heavy markets today and if getting involved, we really need to be confident about both shorties placing 1.1 and 1.14 the front 2 to place

SHORTLIST
There are a lot of top heavy markets today which I don't like to be honest.Getting involved in perceived 2 horse races means we need to pick the right one to place, and ideally, we would want to see both placing to ensure a return. In my experience though, there's usually a "spoiler"
240 YARMOUTH - only included here because Rigidity is a hard to beat selection -1.18 to place and 2 places so we need to be confident here.
500 PONTEFRACT
Alainmaar is 1/3 in places and 1.1 to place, and may be worth a shot given the confidence in the win market when compared with Capeability. Only 3 under 25/1 and only 4 under 50/1 so probability is this one will place, albeit at a poor price
Ajax v Timosoara - I would only get involved I think with one eye on trading after Ajax ( hopefully) score first
Hertha at home and 1.27 , I am taken by the idea that Ventspils were pummeled by FC Zurich who, although showing up well enough v Real Madrid, were eventually beaten 5-2, but Hertha have lost 4 of 5 games in the Bundesliga
Villareal are 1.22 to beat LEvski Sofia - concern re lack of goals ( but only 2 matches in la Liga thus far)- a strong side should see the result going with the odds
ONE A DAY
OF the above, Alainmaar is the strongest horse to place in my mind, and from a footballing perspective, Ajax appeal having the best momentum of the shorties to tonight with 6 goals at the weekend.
I am not as taken with the Europa league as with the Champions league and for that reason, I will put faith in Alainmaar today albeit at really poor odds again, but the hope is to nail this today and see if we can get better odds with the wealth of opportunities that a weekend can bring in a couple of days time

16/9

Never in doubt for you 1.01 traders at 3-0! 3-2 brought a bit of the Fergie bum squeak if you maintained faith in Real Madrid to succumb which they did - 5-2
In retrospect a huge price relative to what I'm used to from the horses.Both shortlisters placed with Frank again managing a 3rd place ( but I suppose he placed and that's the main thing - you see the difference when he changes tactics (Buddhist monk wins) to when he insists on his one dimensional holding them up for a late run.

140 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Captain Flasheart, 7/1 Many Welcomes, 10/1 Norcroft, Ocean Countess, Westport, 12/1 Red Dagger, 14/1 Cheery Cat, Eye For The Girls, 16/1 Cake Stand, 20/1 Count Ceprano, Rough Rock, 25/1 Djalalabad, 33/1 Memphis Marie, 66/1 Contemplate, Hayley´s Girl,

DIOMED VERDICT: CAPTAIN FLASHEART is ahead of the handicapper and can follow up his Kempton success.

Class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper begins the day and we have the advantage of 4 places too. Price gap accentuated in the live betting market 1.26 to place and these price gappers in these low grade affairs have a tendency to place

225 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Andantino, 5/2 Sajja, 100/30 Fancy Footwork, 10/1 Super Sonic Boom, 12/1 Shanid Boy, 16/1 One Grand One, 20/1 Celtic Brave, Footprint, Silent Dancer.

Only 4 under 25/1 in the betting . Soft ground at Listowel (which is up the road) but it has been glorious weather this past week with NO rain at all - illiquid betting market

235 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Elusive Trader, 5/1 Mercers Row, 13/2 Final Ovation, Layla´s Lexi, 8/1 Taborcillo, 12/1 Media Jury, 14/1 Besty, Kalahari Desert, 16/1 Ravenfield, 20/1 Woldgate, 33/1 Hail Bold Chief, 66/1 Redoubtable Grace, Thinking, 100/1 Remember Dougie.

DIOMED VERDICT: ELUSIVE TRADER sets the standard on the form he's shown in two starts on Polytrack and, assuming he'll be as effective on turf, can make the most of a good draw.

Price gapper in this big field maiden BUT 5 furlongs, has only had 2 runs, and the draw can have an effect at Beverley 1.25 to place for this turf debutant

345 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Point Of Light, 4/1 Rosewin, 5/1 Battle Planner, Upton Seas, 10/1 Maybeme.

DIOMED VERDICT: POINT OF LIGHT is unbeaten in handicaps this year and should be able to defy an 8lb rise after a short absence.

Won all his races this year - multiple handicap winner up 8lbs - winning run will end soon as weight anchors him, but today? If you think today, then he's layable at odds on 1.26 to place and currently odds on in the win market

405 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bankable, 7/4 Laa Rayb, 8/1 Zulu Chief, 10/1 Ada River, 25/1 Cadre,

DIOMED VERDICT: This will be tactical but yesterday's rain tilts things in favour of BANKABLE.

I like Ryan Moore on an odds on shot, but 2 places only means NO margin for error 1.22 to place

520 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zaplamation, 5/1 Danish Art, 7/1 Rascal In The Mix, 10/1 I See Nice Sea, Mojeerr, Well Of Echoes, 14/1 Carpe Diem, Tumbleweed Di, Why Nee Amy, 16/1 Western Art, 20/1 Boss Hog, 33/1 Riverside, 66/1 Govenor Eliott, Mangano.

DIOMED VERDICT: DANISH ART shaped more encouragingly at Wolverhampton last week and is taken to defy an ordinary draw.

Price gapper in a classified stakes race-has the draw and the jockey who is 1-2-2 on him, but a big field 1.19 to place

FOOTBALL
I love early round Champions league matches as some games ,like yesterday, stand out like a sore thumb. More of the same today please! Again, if there is a standout, then we will get a better price than the place only market, (with only one rival!!)
4pm FC Mitjelland are 1/8 ( 1.23) to win away from home in the Danish Cup - now I know nothing about team news, so would be betting effectively blind and only relying on he odds as my guide - not much money ( or interest from Betfairians) in this match. Danish Cup matches have tended to go as the odds suggest-pity about the illiquid market
Liverpool are 1.12 at Anfield to beat Debrecen. Now they were 1.18 to beat Burnley and made no mistake - are we looking at a similar emphatic performance here? Betfair's rose tinted spectacles market makers expect goals with an over /under 6.5 goal market and correct score 2 market - this is always a good sign. Would be nice to see Benayoun playing tonight as he will have the momentum from his weekend hatrick.
Do take note of the 1-0 margins of victory for English sides yesterday though
Sevilla are 1.25 v Unirea Uciceni ( is this the game we are looking at?) - generally solid goal scorers at home. Do check for any absences ( eg Athletico Madrid's 0-0 yesterday could be attributed to poor form and the absence of key personnel) -Romanian opponents tonight and their first foray into the Champions league against a side scoring 4 at home at the weekend.
Arsenal are 1.67 at Standard Liege - not the Belgian league is NOT the Premiership by any stretch, BUT this is the Arse away in Europe remember!! Standard would seem layable at 6.8 here in the hope Arsenal nick a goal .
Stuttgart are one of the bundesliga powerhouses and are odds on to beat Rangers at home. Perhaps we will see how weak the SPL is in comparison to European counterparts. Unspectacular form from Stuttgart so far, 2 losses, 2 draws and one win and Rangers exceedingly poor at 0-0 away at the weekend. A game to avoid for me, although Bundesliga is the stronger league by some distance.


SHORTLIST

140 YARMOUTH - I have been well served by price gappers in 0-6 handicaps in the past and Captain Flasheart is 1.26 to continue to good placed form in these race types for price gappers
FC Mitjelland at 1.23 (illiquid market) can hopefully keep the good record for heavy odds on shots when it comes to the Danish Cup. 1/8 away from home and 14/1 the home side tells you everything
Liverpool have the goals in them and have dispatched of teams when priced higher than 1.12 with ease. Expect more of the same tonight at Anfield
Sevilla at 1.25 bump the odds up a tad, and the Romanians should be outclassed this evening with Sevilla having home advantage and the scoring boots fully functioning
Inter v Barca is so enticing. We normally expect goals when Barca play, but remember Inter and Mourinho's not-lost-at-home-in-the -league record.
Eto'o faces his old club this evening and will want to show them but I cannot get a betting angle in
ONE A DAY
I am very tempted by Captain Flasheart in the first race as he looks worth the price gap and the 4 places, but if we're looking at shock-if-it-loses bets, then Liverpool at 1.12 offer unappetising odds but have the look of rock solid banker material about them ( cue 0-0 90 minutes and late goal off the arse of Debrecen defender for lucky 1-0)
No scope to trade here alas with such a short price.I envision goals perhaps and here is where you can enhance the odds.When similarly priced against ,say, Burnley and Stoke, Liverpool have won the first half and are 1.39 to do so here tonight at SHORTER odds than they were against Burnley and Stoke.
1.12 is the safe call to hopefully bag the odds and move on to tomorrow
I think all of the shortlisters are solid today, including the Danish Cup side

15/9

One shortlister and if I had known Jamie Spencer would ride Buddhist Monk from the front and not from his usual come from behind style, then I would have put him up. My natural inclination is to avoid Spencer because of past faux pas, and I hope some of you were taken by the argument.
I laid Strasbourg v Nantes and was cursing after Strasbourg scored after 3 minutes - feck it I thought, but Nantes fought back with 2 goals in the end so job done at my end. This game went in running ( it was not in running at time of writing) and this was the clincher.

210 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Alice Alleyne, Cojo, 7/2 Dylanesque, 13/2 Tia Juana, 12/1 Scarcity, 14/1 Sparkling Smile, 16/1 Tudor Princess, 20/1 Caramelita, Rosetta Hill, 33/1 Chaussini, 40/1 Evening Glow,

DIOMED VERDICT: Alice Alleyne and Dylanesque are the pick of those with experience but COJO is a highly intriguing newcomer. Positive market signals would be particularly significant.

Alica has Moore back on board for Stoute, and they're evens - as ever another maiden race with 2 year olds, one time outers and debutants

220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Theocritus, 9/4 Kaleo, 9/2 Simpsons Gamble, 6/1 Kyle Of Bute, 8/1 Order Order, 100/1 Leaf Hollow, Newcastle Sam, Rindless,

DIOMED VERDICT: Not a bad claimer and THEOCRITUS, who should get the good gallop he needs, is taken to come out on top.

7 runners left, should be 3 places and Order order is the shortest non runner. 3 are 66/1 or bigger leaving horses and 3 places -a great probability race but again, claimer + Frank are the negatives

250 LING
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Qelaan, 11/2 Bramalea, 7/1 Squad, 8/1 Love In The Park, 9/1 Yvonne Evelyn, 10/1 Cossack Prince, 14/1 Merrymadcap, 25/1 Warrior Nation.

DIOMED VERDICT: QELAAN looks the one with potential after her comprehensive win at Folkestone.

Price gapper in a class 5 handicap - 8 runners - 3 places and now 8/11 in places

310 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Miss Frangipane, 4/1 Freeing, 8/1 Nativity, 20/1 Donny Bowl, 33/1 Divine White, 40/1 Sorrel Point.

DIOMED VERDICT: Freeing is a possible improver but she needs to progress around a stone to reverse C&D form with MISS FRANGIPANE, who has a clear chance on the figures.

A stark contrast to yesterday's lack of opportunities, here we have Ryan Moore on a very short priced fav - YES PLEASE!

350 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Al Dafa, 5/1 Halyard, Magician´s Cape, 6/1 Swift Return, 10/1 Agent Archie, 14/1 Grand Mary, 16/1 Eltheeb, Spring Heather, 25/1 Santa Margherita, 33/1 Another Magic Man, Sefton Park.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks good for AL DAFA, who should improve lots on his debut form and is Frankie Dettori's only ride on the card.

Frankie's only ride of the card - take the hint?

Very strong card at local track Listowel today but soft ground tempers enthusiasm as far as betting is concerned

FOOTBALL
Standout today is Real Madrid at 1.3 away to FC Zurich. An impressive 3-0 win against Espanyol mid week and a forward line including Kaka, Ronny, Horse face, Raul cannot be ignored. A midielf including Alonso, and a back line with Casillas should see Real win this evening offering an opportunity for 1.3 .

19:45

West Brom vs Doncaster

4/9

3-1 at the weekend and strong at home

19:45

Maccabi Haifa vs Bayern Munich

6/1

3/1

1/2

I must say the idea of Ribery and Robben as wingers is very enticing and was shown with 5 goals at the weekend - a class combo who could have too much for the Israelis

19:45

Chelsea vs Porto

4/11

7/2

8/1

Porto ultra reliable in the Portugeuse league but Chelsea should have little problems this evening

19:45

Atlético Madrid vs Apoel Nicosia

1/5

11/2

12/1

Quite a front line at Athletico and the odds look about right

SHORTLIST
220 LING looks an outstanding probability race - 1.12 Theocritus or 1.13 Faleo and 3 places - 4 horses in this if we can discount the 66/1 anad bigger horses, so Theo and Faleo only need to beat 1 horse to place. These 2 take up the majority of the book here.
1 mile 2 furlongs, and Frank rode from the front yesterday on Buddhist Monk. I hope he considers these tactics again - if so then 1.12 looks enticing
310 YArmouth - Miss Frangipane is 1.1 to place - 2 places though but we can always rely on Ryan Moore ( famous last words) - 3 horses are 25/1 or bigger here and a 1/4 fav with Ryan onboard. 1.1 looks nailed on here but of course, we only have 2 places
From a footballing perspective a lot of strong bets
Do check out http://www.goonersguide.com/uefa.php -they offer free analysis of games and these analyses are very good and offer an opinion which you either think is persuasive or otherwise
Athletico are 1.18 to win and play Cyprus side Apoel nicosia - the gulf in class is related by the odds
Besiktas are 8.6 to lay, the equivalent of a 1.12 bet welcoming Man Utd. Utd should have too much, but how much of a difference is the absence of Ronaldo who was superb in Europe last season?
Chelsea are 1.43 , edging towards 1/2 odds here for their home match against Porto. The differences in the standards of the leagues should ensure Chelsea do not lose
Real Madrid are 1.29 to beat FC Zurich and I see nothing other than a Real win. Am I missing something? One a day bets should be a shock if they lose bet, and this fits into the category
ONE A DAY
Horses look strong today and the football even stronger.
Real Madrid at 1.29 are the best priced without compromising on quality of bet. Theocritus at 1.12 is earlier and can hopefully wrap the day up for those who can't wait.
It is one of those days where perhaps you can make up for yesterday's non bet with one horse bet and one football bet
BUT as this is one a day, Real at the price leave me salivating.

14/9

Wrong choice from me yesterday with Ajax winning 6-0 and Inter 2-0. There was some solace for me in the evening as Djokovic broke Federer 4-2 allowing his price to momentarily drop to 3.2 allowing a great trade, until normal service was resumed and Fed won in 3 sets
I was right to leave he horse racing alone - it really has become a minefield with so much 2 year old action.

220 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Ms Sophie Eleanor, 3/1 Grand Diamond, 4/1 Nufoudh, 11/2 Maison Dieu, 6/1 Optical Illusion, 14/1 Jamieson Gold, 16/1 Devinius, 20/1 Darfour, 40/1 Ambitious Choice, Clumber Place.

DIOMED VERDICT: MS SOPHIE ELEANOR should have more to offer and gets the vote ahead of Grand Diamond.

Only 4 under 12/1 in this class 6 handicap 1.71 to place

330 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Buddhist Monk, 11/4 Ahlawy, 5/1 Traphalgar, 6/1 World Time, 10/1 Location, 12/1 Quince, 25/1 Bounty Reef, 33/1 A One, 66/1 Finnegans Rainbow.

DIOMED VERDICT: BUDDHIST MONK has an excellent chance but is far too quirky to be recommended with any great confidence. Ahlawy looks sure to be placed at least.

9 down to 7 runners with 2 priced at 33/1 and 50/1 which makes this an interesting race were it not or the fact that Spencer is on the fav, and this is a claiming stakes race 1.27 to place

350 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Fremen, 9/4 Dabbers Ridge, 3/1 Kings Point, 11/2 Persian Peril, 18/1 Willyn, 20/1 King Of The Moors, 25/1 Papa´s Princess, 40/1 Bed Fellow.

DIOMED VERDICT: FREMEN faces a tough task against some rivals rated in the 80s here but has a fair record in tactical events and gets the vote ahead of Kings Point and Dabbers Ridge Continuing the difficult day's racing we have 4 under 20/1 here in another claimer - Persian Peril a non runner who accentuates the price gap between the first 3 and the rest of the field who are 16/1 or bigger 1.2 to place for Fremen on a hatrick 410 REDCAr BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kind Heart, 13/2 Moggy, 7/1 Bivouac, 10/1 Bold Indian, Ingleby Princess, Whipma Whopma Gate, 14/1 Flora´s Pride, 16/1 Phantom Serenade, 20/1 Run Free, 33/1 Blastie, 50/1 Melkatant, 66/1 Antipodean. DIOMED VERDICT: KIND HEART should have plenty to offer back in trip in a weak affair. Price gapper in a seller here - 10/11 - - - - 5/1 in the live betting market -Whipma is the mover into 5/1 - a class 6 seller tempers enthusiam - dare we trust the price gap? Has the new Japanese jockey on board today - we can view this positively ( quite a sensation back home) or negatively ( inexperienced in race riding in the uk) 1.25 to place 440 REDCAr BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 El Ameen, 7/2 Justonefortheroad, 5/1 Safari Song, Totalitarian, 13/2 Mr Rainbow, 16/1 Towthorpe, 20/1 See That Girl, 33/1 Beaux Yeux, Port Ronan, 66/1 Tump Mac, 100/1 Freddie Bolt, 150/1 Spiosra. DIOMED VERDICT: EL AMEEN (nap) has shown enough on both starts over 7f to suggest that he has an ordinary maiden in him. Maiden race again but Johnston horse now odds on here - only 4 horses under 20/1 and form of 3-3-2 , but where is Fairley and/or Fanning? 1.16to place 500 LEICESTER BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Moonbeam Dancer, 5/1 Amroth, 6/1 Tanfidh, 7/1 Isintshelovely, Spirit Is Needed, 16/1 Bluegrass Lion, Katya Kabanova, 25/1 Just Call Me Dave, 33/1 Sula Dream, 40/1 Royal Rainbow. DIOMED VERDICT: MOONBEAM DANCER could be a good thing but her latest start sounds a cautionary note and it's also her turf debut. Tanfidh is a big mover into 2/1 in this maiden 1.4 to place FOOTBALL Nantes are 1.78 to beat Strasbourg at home and Strasbourg are 6.2 to lay Le Havre and Nantes should dominate Ligue 2 this season and with Le Havre falling at home to Nimes, Nantes should not lose, hence the lay of Strasbourg as being the best selection for me here Laying Strasbourg is the same as a 1.17 back bet SHORTLIST 330 LEICESTER - Buddhist Monk is the fav here in this claimer and has my old showbiz pal Frank Spencer on board. There are 7 runners here now - 2 horses are 33/1 and 50/1 - 5 horses and 3 places so hint of a probability Every other race involves 2 year old maidens and it's like Russian roulette with shorties here - all may place, or they might come unstuck as they are still learning ONE A DAY Far too difficult for me today with maidens and claimers abounding in what has been an extremely tricky flat period of late. Fed v Del Potro this evening could see another trading opportunity like Novak's yesterday Nothing rock solid alas. Buddhist monk has 2 to beat to place and may be worth risking but this is a claimer and these races can see shocks Nantes plied their trade in the French Ligue 1 last season and were strongish at home - back to Ligue 2, Strasbourg are layable BUT this is not in running I will no doubt find something live today for my one a day but with broadband unreliable in Ireland alas you will not be able to join me. I will try to take a screenshot, but from an official perspective there's nothing strong at all. Bring on the Jumps season, please!!

13/9

Enhanced bet anyone? So there was I , sitting on £150 green screen after Stoke scored first ( I backed Chelsea at near evens and traded out after they equalised) when I saw 90 minutes go by and an additional 5 called. The odds of 8 were screaming out at me to use my green up profits as a pretty much free bet, but I did not succumb, and the inevitable happened of course - 2-1 Chelsea in extra time. This is the epitomy of a good enhanced bet - little risk backing at odds of 8+ and the chance of a great payout if a team you know are superior ,make a breakthrough in 5 LONG minutes - lesson learned - he who hesitates loses out on nearly 1K

Bordeaux won but it wasn't 4-1 again, I guess it's too much to expect each home game to end 4-1 although it would make my life a whole lot easier! Dodged a few bullets yesterday with a general poor showing from the predominantly 2 year olds, so happy to take Bordeaux and their solitary goal. Again they were tradeable 1.31 and 1.12 once the goal had been scored
Ultra slow broadband today means a curtailed blog

415 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Poet, 3/1 Rayeni, 5/1 Zafisio, 6/1 Border Patrol, Lahaleeb, 8/1 Libano, 10/1 Chintz, 14/1 King Jock.

Says it all really- having to wait til 415 for a sniff of a place bet. Earilier candidates have been ignored because it's 2 places and you saw with Seta that we have to be spot on with these. Add in a few 2 year old races and it's looking like another football day

Only 3 under 8/1 and following momentum, Rayeni with eyebrows Kinane could be worth a place only chance. Mick was great yesterday - the great Yeats was undone by the ground yesterday so it's all about who'll cope best with the ground - the market will tell us nearer the off
Soft the concern here despite the susnhine - 1.4 Rayeni to place
Rayeni and Poet have won and placed on heavy and soft - Border PAtrol is a winner on good ground predominantly - will this give the Irish horses the advantage?


430 FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Paisley, 9/2 Tinshu, 5/1 Some Sunny Day, 7/1 La Rosa Nostra, 15/2 In Secret, 10/1 Rio Guru, Sparkling Crystal, 12/1 Bavarica, Nesayem.

DIOMED VERDICT: RIO GURU is worth chancing off her current mark with both the ground and trip looking right.

2nd fav out leaves Paisely odds on for Fallon/Cumani 1.22 to place
A price gapper 10/11 - - - - - -7/1 in the live market

520 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bab Al Salam, 9/2 Larkham, Rumble Of Thunder, 11/2 Souter Point, 13/2 Rosika, 7/1 Dubai Crest, 14/1 Norwegian Dancer.

DIOMED VERDICT: In a competitive race, RUMBLE OF THUNDER can put up another bold show here from the front.

2nd and 3rd favs out - chance for bab to take advantage and place at least? 1.44 to place means this is a tight old race

FOOTBALL
Ajax are 3/10 at home and will seek to get a 0-0 at home out of their system
Inter are 1.29 home to Parma and have great confidence after drubbing AC at their ground. Note too the Mourinho home record with this club, and Chelsea and Porto.
Werder are 1.35 v Hannover - opponents can be low scoring but Werder = goals and a good opportunity for over 1.5 goals at 1.14 or a straight back of Werder if they consent to score first
Over 1.5 goals involves BOTH sides
Panathanaikos are 1.35 away to Panthrakikos and are only mentioned as their great rivals Olympiakos drew 0-0 at 1.17 yesterday ( a chance here then for Pana to gain an extra 3 points)
TENNIS
Federer v Djokovic 1.27 Fed is surely tradeable tonight -try to "buy back" at 1.45 or thereabouts - Novak will surely win a set - Fed lost a set to Soderling after coasting. We can alternatively back Novak at 4.6 which means the price only has to reduce to 4.4 to lay to give us a 1.20 equivalent one a day bet - this is far easier than 1.27 Fed which requires a relatively greater price move in order to be tradeable
SHORTLIST
415 CURRAGH - Poet (1.55) and Rayeni ( 1.44) are proven on a soft surface -preference for me would be on the best backed of these 2 to place i.e. the favourite
430 FFFOS LAS - 2 important non runners could make Paisely more competitive and gain a place in the first 3? Fallon on board for Cumani
I fancy Inter to score 1st today for a trade rather than a straight out win bet in the match odds market, given their stumble against Bari in game 1 ( scored first, but drew 1-1) Parma have drawn 1 and won 1, identical to Inter, but I expect the home record to prevail (remain unbeaten) and Inter to have the advantage
Werder ( 9 goals in 4 games) face Hannover ( 3 goals in 4 games) - I expect Werder to break the deadlock here and thus create another tradeable match


ONE A DAY
All look good today, but which one has the rock solid Al Zir look to it?
I will chance Werder Bremen here in the match odds market at 1.35 to score first and then trade out. If they don't score first, I will let the bet ride ( and may even take advantage of an enhanced bet)

12/9

You see why sometime you have to go safe - Al Zir won but Sela , although 1.04 in running to place, finished 3rd - another 2 year old in a race with 2 places - there's always that doubt isnt there
Preference today will be on 3+place races
215 cheSTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Laureldean Spirit, 4/1 Deely Plaza, 5/1 Lilyannabanana, 6/1 Medicinal Compound, 7/1 Spinning Spirit, 8/1 Kumbeshwar, 14/1 War Angel, 20/1 Peace And Glory.

DIOMED VERDICT: LAURELDEAN SPIRIT has done enough in stronger maidens to suggest she can take the measure of Deely Plaza.

8 down to 7 and a clear outsider should help All red Laureldean to place - again another maiden - 1.19 to place

235 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Lean Machine, 5/1 Glen Shiel, 11/2 Robens Rock, 12/1 Buffett, Stefanki, 20/1 Exceedthewildman, 25/1 Kilmanseck, 33/1 Bird On The Wire, 100/1 Little Buddy.

DIOMED VERDICT: LEAN MACHINE can become another winning youngster for Richard Hannon.

9 down to 7 and a fav who has had 3 2nd places - surely a good enough place candidate albeit in another maiden 1.11 to place

350 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Alfred Nobel, 13/8 Kingsfort, 9/2 Chabal, 14/1 Air Chief Marshal, 25/1 Beethoven, 40/1 Senior.

Should be a showdown between Alf and King here -Murtagh across the sea today but Jamie Heffernan an able alternative - soft to heavy at the Curragh but the weather is glorious 1.41 and 1.54 to place perhaps shows that the ground has raised some doubts, as has, I suppose, the inherent competitive nature of this race

420 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 J J The Jet Plane, 4/1 Swiss Diva, 9/2 Mullein, Tamagin, 8/1 Mac Gille Eoin, 10/1 Rowe Park, 12/1 Express Wish, 16/1 Beckermet, 20/1 Galpin Junior, 33/1 Festoso.

DIOMED VERDICT: TAMAGIN has achieved some sterling efforts this summer and has plenty going for him.

Swiaa diva an important non runner here and hopefully the masterful Ryan Moore on JJ can take advantage for place backers 1.45 to place, again shows this is a good quality field, but is Ryan the difference?

FOOTBALL
Bordeaux 1.31 and have scored 4 in both home games against Grenoble who have lost all games so far this season. Could be an opportunity for a relatively big price for the one a day today
From http://www.soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/
Celtic v Dundee United 1.3 - Big firm at home priced ultra short should generally equal a win
Liverpool v Burnley 1.3 - shouldn't get anything really from Anfield today, but did at flashes at Stamford Bridge
Olympiakos v Kavali - 1.17 - Greek powerhouses at home can be relied upon
PSV 1.25 v Roda - full of goals and a team that shipped 7 last time out in last 2 games
Bordeaux v Grenoble - not lost at home in yonks and scoring 4+ at home -1.3
SHORTLIST
235 FFOS LAS - Lean machine's 2nd places ( 3 of them) are compelling, but the price of 1.11 is giving nothing away
Bordeaux look nailed on to give us a run for our money
ONE A DAY
I will chance Bordeaux today ( trade if they score first as an option, and with 8 in their last 2, the hope is they can keep this up). Hope to lift the usual odds beyond 1.3 today

11/9

Fallon seems to be clicking well for Cumani and showed it yesterday with Fantasia winning -good to leave heavy ground at Tipperary alone as the fancied failed to give their running

135 DONCASTEr
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Misheer, 9/2 Sand Vixen, 6/1 Mister Manannan, Star Rover, 15/2 Our Jonathan, 9/1 Piccadilly Filly, 12/1 Archers Road, 20/1 Rose Blossom, 25/1 Bould Mover, Swan Wings.

DIOMED VERDICT: MISHEER can take the step back to 5f in her stride by beating Sand Vixen.

Early start and Misheer fancied here in a race where only 3 are under 10/1 1.28 to place - as ever in these high class races, all horses are worthy of some consideration - the question is - are the 3 under 10/1 the dominant ones and if so, can Misheer dominate these?

215 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Racy, 7/2 Cereal Killer, 4/1 Machine Gun Kelly, 15/2 Swiss Cross, 8/1 Wellington Fair, 10/1 Be Grateful, 20/1 Blue Neptune, 25/1 Finch Flyer, Satin Princess.

DIOMED VERDICT: Those with form look nothing special and newcomers Cereal Killer and RACY may well emerge on top.

All red, evens and a big price gapper in the live market but Racy has never run before 1.21 to place - expected to run superbly on debut this one

305 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Kells Castle, 5/1 Celebrity Call, 7/1 Phoenix Des Mottes, Ripalong Lad, Volcanic Rock, 10/1 Mandingo Chief, Oscar Glory, Tubber Gael Holly, 14/1 First Boy, Runshan, 25/1 Merry Path.

DIOMED VERDICT: CELEBRITY CALL has been running well for this yard since the tongue-tie has been fitted and he's on a fair mark for this return to fences.

Price gapper in the live market - McCoy factor? The 2nd biggest price in this field is 16/1 which tells you it could be competitive 1.31 to place

315 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Seta, 11/2 Virginia Hall, 10/1 Clarietta, Gallic Star, 12/1 Quiet, 16/1 Pollenator, 25/1 Hibaayeb.

DIOMED VERDICT: The hype is in danger of taking over but SETA looks the most likely winner.

Alluded to earlier, like Fantasia yesterday, Fallon and Cumani have worked well , as has Fallon on fancied horses. Price gapper - only 2 places though 1.31 to place - a big price considering the horse is 1.63 to WIN

325 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Hot Prospect, 7/1 Morana, 8/1 Corsica, 9/1 Monterey, 10/1 Lajidaal, Lyric Poet, 12/1 Philander, 14/1 Spoken, 20/1 Bravo Bravo, 25/1 Count Bertoni.

DIOMED VERDICT: The betting should be informative about the newcomers but HOT PROSPECT will be hard to beat.

Price gapper here, but live market shows Morana creeping close. A " hard to beat" selection is Hot Prospect but yet again he's a one time outer who showed enough promise to be a big fancy on only 2nd run 1.13 to palce - shortest priced so far and Betfair's market expects a place

415 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Another Trump, 2/1 Diamond Brook, 4/1 Hi Tide, 10/1 Kingsben, 12/1 Jim Tango, 16/1 Stopped Out, 20/1 Love Of Tara, 33/1 Mauricetheathlete, 66/1 Puddington Bear, 100/1 Give Us The Nod, Liams Winner.

DIOMED VERDICT: Diamond Brook looks open to progress but ANOTHER TRUMP (nap) was an impressive winner at Huntingdon on his first outing for Jonjo O'Neill and is taken to defy a penalty.

Hi Tide drift to 9/1 could leave the front 2 battling things out- front 2 can't be cplit - Diamond Brook is 6/4 all red selection - Another trump is McCoy - nuff said 1.16 -AP favoured for the place - Diamond Brook is 1.27

425 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Al Zir, 9/4 Treadwell, 12/1 Practitioner,

DIOMED VERDICT: AL ZIR looked a colt with a big future on his debut and can prove too good for Treadwell.

3 horses, Practicioner only 7/1 so cannot be properly dismissed but Frankie is on Al Zir at 2/5 now - take the hint? Only one to beat to place 1.09 Al Zir - best probability race of the day this one with a price reflective of that

540 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Diamond Laura, 11/4 Existentialist, 4/1 Fenella Rose, 13/2 Lady Pattern, Yeadon, 12/1 Magenta Strait, 25/1 Bathwick Gino, 40/1 Blade Of Glory, London Girl, 66/1 Calle Vistamar, Teeraha.

DIOMED VERDICT: The consistent DIAMOND LAURA, who is 2-2 on AW (both at this track) and 2-2 at claiming level, has solid credentials and gets the vote over Existentialist. Hmmm 2 year old claimer over 5 furlongs - I'LL GET ME COAT! But well backed is Diamond into 5/6 and form is there for all to see, but race type is terrible 1.18 - they fancy a good run but I can't back in such a race type 620 DOWNROYAL BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Trojan War, 5/2 Dabirana, 3/1 Directa King, 13/2 Cruel Sea, 14/1 Hunting Tower, 16/1 Royal Astronomer, 25/1 Timisvar, 33/1 Allez Vite, 50/1 Sandokan. Not heavy here , but heavy at Kilbeggan. Trojan War is Aiden O 'Brien and Murtagh and there ar only 4 under 20/1 - illiquid market FOOTBALL 19:30 Le Havre vs Nimes 1/2 I have been following Nantes and Le Havre in French Ligue 2 and they seem to be good value when short priced at home and generally deliver 1.66 -better price on Betfair and 7.8 to lay Nimes which is equivalent of a 1.14 bet 19:45 Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers 3/10 wouldn't back with stolen money. If in running, Bohs look layable to trade if it stays 0-0 for a while TENNIS 17:35 S Williams 4/11 big Momma is playing small mum Kim Clijsters and is appropriately priced. Will Kim's ring rustiness be her downfall? SHORTLIST 315 DONCASTER - I don't normally like 2 places - it gives us little room for error when compared to a fav who can place 3rd in an 8 runner race and we still win. But, Fallon and Cumani partnership cannot be ignored at the moment and Seta looks very good here 325 SANDOWN - hot Prospect is a hard to beat selection and they generally palce. Priced to place and a price gapper. Concern this is a one time out 2 year old maiden expectedto reproduce on 2nd run 415 BANGOR - Another Trump and Diamond Brook are the 2 to focus on - I would side with McCoy here as the place market has too 425 DONCASTER - Al Zir is in the best probability race of the day and at 1.09 the price reflects the place chance for beating one horse only ONE A DAY If we're talking ultra safe and the best bet of the day , then it must be Al Zir, has Dettori onboard and maybe a day to just take the medicine at 1.09. Of the others , well they all look good and the best price is for the Fallon/Cumani partnership on Seta and at 1.32 -this is a 2 year old who has only had one run so as always we must be cautious, but if you believe in the fact this is the fav for the Oaks and 1000 guineas, and Fallon has a superb strike rate thus far for Cumani, then - 2 places means no rooms for error