Wednesday 30 September 2009

30/9

Ghost dancer placed, Horseradish placed ( and if I had live chat up this would have been the one with massive support into 2/5), Whispering wind won, Overrule placed, Arsenl won, Barca won, Sternlight won, but Viking dancer 4th.
Wrong decision with all the opportunities yesterday! Why I did not have Barca as my one a day I don't know - instead relied on those fecking 2 year olds!
Still, I hope you spotted 3 enhanced bets in the football last night to compensate
1) Rubin Kazan score a 9th minute goal v Inter Milan. Back Inter at 4.4, Inter equalise, green up at 2.26
2) Arsenal were backable (1.25 pre game) at 1.85 and eventually got the breakthrough
3) Liverpool I backed at 17.5 for £10 when 2-0 down - this enhanced bet did not come off as Liverpool failed to score
So some returns personally yesterday but a frustration with so many hinted at races producing placed horses.

Interesting to see Valid Point unplaced - one run too many - the key - change to all weather

140 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Wishbone, 5/2 Brinscall, 4/1 Love And Devotion, 10/1 Tobouggie On Down, 12/1 Timeless Elegance, 14/1 Path Of Peace, 20/1 Hedgerow,

DIOMED VERDICT: WISHBONE has shown more than enough in better races than this one to suggest she's the one to beat.

Yet again we are blighted with 2 year old maidens. Here Wishbone is currently odds on , has had a couple of runs , and is in a 7 runner race where only 3 are under 16/1. But, hmmm Betty, Frank is onboard.- only 2 places and I cannot trust the jockey


230 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Bagber, 4/1 Salybia Bay, 9/2 Sixties Swinger, 8/1 By Command.

DIOMED VERDICT: BAGBER looks likely to give his running and will be hard to beat.

Bagber rings a bell as a previous one a dayer, and has those words " hard to beat" which I like to see ( Grenfall yesterday - check out Diomed's comment - " hard to beat" and he won at 7/2)
A 50/50 race this and 2 places -Ryan Moore onboard, but we know by now that 2 places means we have no room for error 1.3 to place in a race where the odds do not really offer us any outsiders

340 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Fremont, 9/2 Side Glance, 11/2 Folly Bridge, 8/1 Antonius Moris, 12/1 Kumbeshwar.

DIOMED VERDICT: FREMONT made a really encouraging comeback at Doncaster last time and can get back to winning ways.

Fresh from a bumper pay day in the Goffs Millions at the weekend, Richard "loadsamoney" Hughes partners Fremont in yet another 2 year old race 1.24 to place

820 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Mubrook, 3/1 Buckie Boy, 9/2 Storming Sioux, 25/1 Grand Exit, 33/1 Awani, Brandy Butter, Keepholdin, Sadaska, 40/1 Persian Tomcat, Superior Duchess, 66/1 Summer Affair, 100/1 Dance Gdansk, Hilltop Alchemy.

DIOMED VERDICT: MUBROOK's form is easily the pick, with Buckie Boy and Storming Sioux the only others with anything significant.

OH YE GODS! Another 2 year old maiden. Watch out or Sadiska -16/1 at present in a race which should revolve around 4 now (I include Sariska as it looks quite a potential mover)
We assume a lot in dismissing those 25/1 or over out of hand
A race to weigh up nearer 820 than midday - prices too illiquid

FOOTBALL
12:30 China vs Botswana 4/11
Interesting - China take on football powerhouses, erm, Botswana but this is an international friendly
16:30 City Stars vs FC Honka 25/1 9/1 1/33
Finnish cup - like the Danish Cup, odds are very accurate -1.13 on Betfair (2/15) - what a discrepancy!! (I've just had some 1.13 as this is some difference to ladbrokes 1/33 (1.03))
17:45 Brazil Youth vs Czech Republic Youth 4/9 11/4 5/1
Likley to be a bit of a test for the Samba Nippers as priced at only 4/9
19:45 Bordeaux vs Maccabi Haifa 2/7
I've been harping on about Bordeaux's imperious home record all season long-they like playing at home in their domestic leagues and score plenty.
19:45 Manchester Utd vs Wolfsburg 1/3
Unconvincing away to BEsiktas needing a Scholes header to break the deadlock.1/3 dismisses Wolfsburg out of hand and is representative of United's record in the Champions league rather than the weakness of the opponents who have goals in them
19:45 Milan vs FC Zurich 2/9
Milan have scored 3 goals in 6 games this season and are in dire form. PRiced up based on weakness of Swiss league ( Zurich scored 2 against Real Madrid, BUT were 3-0 down at the time). I couldn't back Milan at present, with the ridiculous appointment of Leonardo as head coach ( I think it's the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle called Leonardo judged by this season's results)
19:45 Real Madrid vs Marseille 2/9
Those who have followed Real this season will have had the prayer mat out on a couple of occasions. They have scored LATE goals on numerous occasions against inferior opposition ( Xerez - Ronaldo early goal assuaged fears, but took until 70+ minutes for 2nd)
All 3 goals against Tenerife came 2nd half latest.
Now if Real have had trouble with the likes of Xerzes and Tenerife (albeit impressive final scorelines) then Marseilles could prove formidable opposition and the 2/9 early back plenty short enough for me. A tradeable price perhaps against a french side whos only defeat came with a late 84th minute goal last game
19:45 Apoel Nicosia vs Chelsea 11/1 4/1 2/7
I wouldn't read too much into Apoel's 0-0 at Athletico - says more about the Spaniards than the Cypriots. Chelsea's defeat at the weekend was down to the sending off and Ashley Cole's injury reducing the team to 9 . One of those games. Look prior to the sending off and it was 1-1 with 11 v 11 and no penalities.
So no panic stations here for Chelsea.

SHORTLIST
Well, win or lose, I have personally backed FC Honka , a 1/33 shot with Ladbrokes, at 1.13 on Betfair ( 2/15) simply because of the discrepancy in the odds and nothing else I am no Finnish Cup expert
Average odds for bookies is generally 1.05 with Betair and Bet 365 standout at 1.10. So they know something? Why do ladbrokes go so short?
It's not in running but I hope that the rick at betfair is not hiding some plague that has befallen FC Honka, who must play now with only the tea lady up front.

340 SALISBURY would be a race of interest , because of Richard Hughes more than anything, but 2 places and 2 year olds are the concern
820 Kempton is definitely a race I will come back to nearer to 820 as it looks ideal for a probability bet.
ONE A DAY
For me is FC Honka away to City Stars at 1.13 simply because ,in general, the bookies are showing 1.05 and Ladbrokes 1.03. It may lose, and is not in running, but I am getting value. ( so strictly it's not a solid -surprise-if-it-loses-bet )
The Champions League looks tough this evening and all of the ultra short priced favourites seem to readily dismiss sides which are actually not worthy of such dismissive odds. No nailed on Barca like team tonight.
820 Kempton looks the best horse race but will need looking at nearer the off
Closest for me is Chelsea against Apoel, and they should make the breakthrough?

Tuesday 29 September 2009

29/9

Duty and destiny placed and exemplary won so job done

210 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ghost Dancer, 11/2 Equipe De Nuit, 7/1 Abhainn, Green Velvet, 8/1 Namu, 10/1 Bold Ring, Chasca, 12/1 Golden Dixie, Nativity, 20/1 Royal Manor, 25/1 Blushing Maid, 33/1 Bahamian Ceilidh.

DIOMED VERDICT: The in-form GHOST DANCER has solid credentials for a race like this.

Price gapper and shorter in the live betting market - 6/5 to evens - 1.26 to place

250 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Horseradish, 9/2 True To Form, 6/1 Hambleton, Hounds Ditch, 9/1 House Of Rules, 16/1 Cookie Galore, Marjolly, Phoenix Rose, 20/1 Usquaebach, 28/1 Atherton, Goodison Goal, 40/1 Amenable, 66/1 Bombay Mist,

DIOMED VERDICT: HORSERADISH, whose yard is 2-4 with juveniles here in recent seasons, showed more than enough at Ayr to suggest he can win a race of this nature, assuming he will take to Fibresand.

Price gapper now odds on but another one time out maiden fav, but we can't ignore the market confidence 1.13 to place - as hinted at the horse is all weather debutant


300 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Overrule, 7/2 Stagecoach Pearl, 9/2 Dr Kildare, 10/1 Skylancer, 20/1 Anay Car, 25/1 Andorn, Pistol Hill, 66/1 Fell Pack, Flashy Max, 100/1 Piccolo Pride, Tank Commander, 250/1 Maynooth Prince.

DIOMED VERDICT: OVERRULE was impressive last time and can win again.

Only 3 under 12/1 and possibly Andorn is a market mover - hint of 16/1 and 14/1 there 1.18 to place

305 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Whispering Wind, 9/2 Island Lass, 7/1 Nicomedia, 8/1 Diamond Key, Equation, 10/1 Lip Gloss, 12/1 Sheupshedownshe, 14/1 Beech View, 16/1 Molly Maher, 20/1 Ihavenoidea, Miramalfi, Parquetry, 25/1 Idle Words, Sunset Susie, 33/1 Princess Misty, 50/1 Castletara Edleen, Rowan Dancer.

Seems to be a lot of potentials today - Whispering wind is odds on and has Barry Geraghty on board -this is 2 miles so, for jumps, will be over quickly enough - the key is to keep the horse out of trouble and faith in Mr Geraghty 1.19 to place

310 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Viking Dancer, 5/2 Music Maestro, 4/1 Sternlight, 9/2 Landowner, 7/1 Tislaam, 50/1 Kilmanseck, 66/1 Drubinca, 100/1 Avon Grounds, 200/1 Little Buddy.

DIOMED VERDICT: VIKING DANCER has been going forward from race to race and looks the one to beat.

With Music Maestro an important non runner, this should open things up to Viking dancer in what looks, so far, to be the best probability race of the day - 6 run and 3 places make this a good race to focus on - but Viking dancer is 1.08 which is inevitable really
Look at the betting forecast originally - 5 horses under 50/1 - Tislaam and Musical maestro are 2 of those 5 who don't run now. Can we enhance the odds with a place back of Sternlight at 1.25?

405 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Charminamix, 6/1 Adare Manor, 8/1 Piper´s Knowe, 9/1 Charming Hymn, 10/1 French Riviera, Slieve Rocket, Takestan, 14/1 Altnadua, Go Dana Le Pras, Quai Du Roi, 16/1 Arviz, Deputy Consort, Lightening Sky, Old Shyan, Ridge Boy, Ringned, 25/1 A New Rising, Smooth Notion,

Ruby Walsh for Tony Martin cannot be ignored especially on a price gapper, but a 17 runner field may cause traffic problems - that said Ruby, like Barry Geraghty, can be trusted - 1.4 to place

450 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Valid Point, 9/2 Monetary Fund, 7/1 Lucky Punt, 10/1 Brilliana, Interdiamonds, 14/1 Royal Trooper.

DIOMED VERDICT: VALID POINT (nap) can race off the same mark as when completing a five-timer at Pontefract last week so is likely to be tough to beat as long as he handles the surface.

I was surprised that Valid point completed the 5 timer, and we are looking for clues that this winning run will end, as inevitably it will some time.
BUT he is still odds on, and the weight rise we would want to see has not materialised.1.26 to place - 5 runners and 2 places

FOOTBALL
Arsenal v Olympiakos - 1.27 to win - Arsenal have been good and reliable at home in Champions league. Olympiakos are typical Greek - low scoring generally

Barcelona v Dinamo Kiev - 1.12 to win - ultra reliable this season and a must-include until tthey don't win

South Korea under 20 v Germany under 20 - 1.37 for the Germans - will they show the efficiency of their senior counterparts? If so, then this is a nice price. The under 20's pricings have generally been accurate ( bar Venezuela v Nigeria when Nigeria were reduced to 1 men)

SHORTLIST
310 WARWICK stands out as a 50/50 race - 6 runners and 3 places - Viking dancer at 1.08 is obvious and a risk could be taken on Sternlight at 1.26 to place given there are still 3 outsiders (whose prices in the live market have obviously shortened given the short priced non runners, but I don't equate this with any market moves or market confidence)
Barcelona at 1.12 are ultra reliable this season and Ibra is scoring , and scoring regularly. Messi is still a maestro and Eto'o is long forgotten. This Barca side this season are backable at short prices until they lose/draw (but the fact they score so regularly means they are great trading prospects)

ONE A DAY
Now ,for me, I can go 3 ways here
1) place back Viking dancer at 1.08 to place - will he get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race?
2) place back Viking dancer and back Barcelona ( and trade out if, as expected, Barca score first) -this will enhance the 1.08 on Viking ( we are assuming he places of course!!) - the key here is to trade the football rather than leave it
3) place back Sternlight at 1.24 (market slightly illiquid and price could increase) - the idea here is that the betting forecast had 5 horses under 50/1 - now 3 remain and the assumption is the outsiders are still outsiders. Again, will Sternlight get beaten by 3 other horses in a 6 horse race?
YOU DECIDE!
THere are many good opportunities today and the 310, for me, represents the best probability chance. IF we are strict, then Viking dancer to place would fit into the category of a shock if he doesn't place one a day bet
Me? I will be going for option 2 myself today to help bump up the 1.08. My aith in Barca remains.
I would not put anyone off Sternlight placing at better odds either ,so if you fancy a probability gamble, this one offers the bestodds

Monday 28 September 2009

28/9

No problems with St Nicholas Abbey yesterday. BRazil nippers scored plenty and look to be good things in future matches.
Races don't start til 2pm so footy to start with
tahiti under 20 v Venuzuela under 20 - 1.08 - should be an easy game for Venuzuela who should not really have won against Nigeria who were a man down
Italy under 20 v Trinidad under 20 - 1.24 - hopefully the Italy youth are as good as their senior counterparts.

210 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Rakaan, 9/2 Desert Poppy, 11/2 Memorandum, 6/1 Reddy To Star, 7/1 Annia, 15/2 Hill Of Miller, 12/1 The Two G´S, 16/1 Dream Number, 33/1 Ballachulish, 100/1 Miss Roma.

DIOMED VERDICT: Reasons to oppose the form principals and DESERT POPPY may be up to the task.

Now 5/6 and has run in better company but hint he may be exposed - but will that stop him placing? 1.15 to place - only 3 under 10/1 -last race was a class 2 so explains the poor form - 2 recent seconds in class 6 and class 4 (this is class 5) augur well despite Spotlight saying the horse has " gone the wrong way"


240 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Total Impact, 9/2 Fault, 5/1 Desperate Dan, 11/2 Misaro, 7/1 Green Lagonda, 10/1 Matterofact, Obe Gold, 14/1 Spic ´n Span, 33/1 Talamahana, 50/1 Rathmolyon, 100/1 Poppy Morris.

DIOMED VERDICT: TOTAL IMPACT is running well and must have bright prospects at this level despite the big weight

11/10 the fav and " all red" but this is a class 6 claimer - 1.22 and 5lb claimer compensating or the weight

300 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Milldown Story, 5/2 Hay Fever, 4/1 Turkish Lokum, 6/1 Catchpenny, 16/1 Commandingpresence, 20/1 Chasing Amy, 25/1 Place The Duchess, 50/1 Mrs Medley, Professor Malone, She Goes Nowhere, Valentine Bay.

DIOMED VERDICT: MILLDOWN STORY looks to have been found an ideal opportunity here and can gain a deserved first success.

Consistent placed form for the fav here in similar maiden races 1.21 to place - only 4 under 14/1 here

315 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Purple Heart, 3/1 My Point Exactly, 9/2 Keredari, 6/1 All Star Affair, Munaawer, 8/1 Palm Ridge, 10/1 Moonlight Rock, 14/1 Total Reality, 16/1 Blaze Brightly, Inaspettata, 20/1 Quarton, 25/1 Baveno, Liberty Girl, Ruby Suesday, 33/1 Flog The Lot,

Rarely do Aiden O;Brien maidens go too long without a win, and Purple Heart is nicely priced with Jonny Murtagh onboard. But this is a hot race - Oxx/Kinane , Weld/Smullen , Lordan/Wachman and Prendergast/O Donoghue in opposition - illiquid market

330 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Newbury Street, 11/2 Agent Boo, 8/1 Kilt Rock, 9/1 Nabrina, 10/1 Speedyfix, 12/1 Pepper Lane, 14/1 Bathwick Gino, 16/1 Rightcar, True Red, Zaskia, 25/1 Flyinflyout, Mr Smithson, Saucy Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: Agent Boo and NEWBURY STREET may be the two to concentrate on.

Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap but watch out for Kilt Rock now 7/2 and backed - 1.44 to place and Kilt rock still being backed

340 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Duty And Destiny, 11/4 Lovely Eyes, 100/30 Exemplary, 15/2 Futurist, 20/1 Groove Master, 33/1 Mr Maximas, 40/1 Radsky, 50/1 Taliesin.

DIOMED VERDICT: DUTY AND DESTINY has run creditably in stronger-looking races and should have the necessary stamina.

Only 4 under 20/1 make this an intriguing race for place only betting and Exemplary represents the Johnston yard which I can trust especially with Joe Fanning taking the ride, but it is tight at the head of the market. 1.21 the fav , 1.26 exemplary to place

530 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Vertigo On Course, 6/1 Cheers For Thea, 7/1 Arashi, 10/1 Hypnotic, 12/1 Another Decree, Funky Munky, Hold The Star, 14/1 Sign Of The Cross, 16/1 Inside Story, King Of Legend, Womaniser, 20/1 True Decision, 33/1 Lyrical Intent.

DIOMED VERDICT: There was lots to like about the win of VERTIGO ON COURSE at Yarmouth and his red-hot stable should win more races with her.

If Britney Spears was a horse tipster she would be saying " I'm a womaniser, oh womaniser, womaniser ,womaniser etc etc" and she might be right! 16/1 in the betting forecast and currently at 6/1 in the live market and "all red" hints at a possible market mover ( well done Britney!) and the booking of a certain Guillembert may hint at a good run?
I have included this race because Vertigo on Course in a class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper like the earlier one and these tend to be competitive horses. 1.53 to place

Elsewhere I remember John ISner, the giant and he is playing Wachiramanowong in the tennis this afternoon - 1.08 is reasonable enough and he should have little difficulty as he is improving greatly and is proven.

SHORTLIST
Not too taken by the 0-60 price gappers today - they are normally reliable though.
Venezuela under 20's at 1.08 v Tahiti - bear in mind this is the price of Spain when they scoed 8 past the Tahitians - Venezuela lucky 1-0 victors against Nigeria last time out ( down to 10 men)
Italy under 20's catch the eye at 1.24 against Trinidad and Tobago and surely there should be a gulf in class here?
But do we want to place faith in under 20's remaining consistent? I personalyl know nothing about the teams bar the fact that we can assume Tahiti will have trouble ( but Venezuela are no world beaters and are debutants in this tournament too)
210 BATH - Rakaan at 1.15 to place - should involve just 4 horses and an element of recent consistency , bar the inevitable poor result in class 2 company. I disagree with Spotlight and feel Rakaan has a good chance for a place
300 WOLVES - Milltown story - another maiden who has ultra consistent placed form in a race where 5 are 40/1 or bigger, and only 4 are under 12/1 - 1.21 to place here
340 BATH - perhaps the best probability race today - only 4 under 20/1 and Duty and Destiny and Exemplary sharing favouratism at around 13/8 - fly in the ointment is the Godolphin horse at 9/1, on the cusp of the 20/1 outsiders
Exemplary of interest with the Fanning/Johnston partnership but Duty and destiny a " hard to beat" candidate - tough to chose between these 2 and any choice made would have to assume that the 2 market leaders both get placed.
Perhaps go with the favourite in the betting market at the off?

ONE A DAY
Each has their niggles today - maidens all and the best race is the 340 Bath but none of the 4 in contention can be discounted with confidence. Faith then in Duty and destiny for me as a "hard to beat" selection at 1.23 and hope this IS a 4 horse race and he finishes in the first 3. If he is not market leader at the off, I will go with the market leader.

Sunday 27 September 2009

27/9

Don't know what happened yesterday about blog getting published - loads of opportunities including my choice Rip van winkle to place at 1.17 , Spurs at 1.33, Liverpool at 1.16, Real Madrid at 1.11 and my close pals Barca at a tasty 1.31, and PSV at 1.18 so loads of one a days - hope you sniffed one out.
Enhanced bets? -Chelsea a goal down - Back Chelsea - they equalise - trade out - Chelsea go on to lose but I still profit ( remember with trading we cannot foretell the future so we get out early, even i it means sacrificing potential profit)
Twente, under Schteve , how you say, MCClaren, went a goal down at 1.25 odds and equalised and were 2-1 up 2nd half
Real Madrid 0-0 and odds of 1.11 increased to 1.27 and they won 3-0
They are there and are a solid and reliable betting method

Broadband slower than Matt le Tissier and Berbatov doing the 100 metres, so hopefully will have this done by 1st race

305 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Graceful Descent, 7/2 Birkside, 9/2 Andorn, 7/1 Shekan Star, Tesserae, 10/1 Flying Phoebe, That´s All, 33/1 Angels And Demons, 50/1 Grethel.

DIOMED VERDICT: BIRKSIDE has to concede weight all round but he is a prolific winner outside of handicap company and he'll be suited by the drop in trip and in grade.

Fav interesting place form, and twice has been a head away from a win rather than a 2nd place which would have made the form figures more impressive. A lowly seller, and can these animals be trusted to reproduce form consistently? 1.27 to place

320 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Walk On Bye, 5/1 Beethoven, 7/1 Full Mandate, King Ledley, 15/2 Air Chief Marshal, 8/1 Lucky General, 10/1 Free Judgement, 12/1 Gibraltar Blue, 14/1 Bethrah, Moran Gra, 16/1 Velvet Flicker, 20/1 Capulet Monteque, 25/1 Step In Time, 33/1 Rigid Rock, 50/1 Historic Occasion, Moonlight Cass, Reggae Dancer, Silk Slippers, 66/1 Miss Cueta, 200/1 Tamara Who.

£1 million to the winner here, and Beethoven is the shortest priced Ballydoyle horse

330 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Fosters Cross, 8/1 Beliar, New Town Bay, 14/1 Long Walk Home, Our Symphony, Vinnie, 16/1 Bachelor Affair, 20/1 Imco Tendence, Le Reveur, 25/1 Lady Laragh, 33/1 Birds Of A Feather, To The Left, 50/1 Golden Barrell, Orchard Joey, River House, Shannon Breeze, The Kiddo.

Price gapper but New town Bay has shortened the gap at 7/2
Like that short sprint fav the other day who won , it's deciding whether the short price means he's head and shoulders above, or the short price in a novice hurdle 17 runner event means he's opposable 1.17 to place

355 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 St Nicholas Abbey, 7/2 Passion For Gold, 5/1 Reiteration, 6/1 Layali Al Andalus, 10/1 Senior, 12/1 Bobbyscot, 14/1 Montecchio, 25/1 Lastofthemohicans, 50/1 Top Spin.

O'Brien /Murtagh on a shortie usually do the business 1.11 to place

430 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Azmeel, 4/1 Shakespearean, 9/2 Lord High Admiral, Stunning View, 5/1 Famous, 7/1 Cadley Road, 8/1 Marfach, 12/1 Crystal Gal, 16/1 Nurture, 20/1 Private Story, 25/1 A Mind Of Her Own, Style Queen, 33/1 Legendary Lad, On The Cusp, Utrillo, 50/1 Is Feidir Linn, 66/1 Bintalaleumydarlin, Rockin N Reelin, 100/1 Diamondgeezer Luke.

The 2nd million pound race of the day sees Azmeel now 7/4 - could this be ominous - again big competitive field 1.47 to place

540 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Good Tack, 11/4 Goat Castle, 10/1 Fairyhouse Thunder, Simbamead, 12/1 Snow Kaddy, Swing State, 20/1 Eastern Supreme, Fairynuff, Subasta, 25/1 Mister Daniel Dee, 50/1 Bucko, Princess Tahoe.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is probably heading for a newcomer with GOOD TACK the most appealing.
Eastern Surprise and Fairynuff big movers in this bumper

FOOTBALL
Juventus - 1.24 v Bologna - Juve won 4, drawn 1, won 2 at home 2-0 and 1-0.
Bologna 0-0 and 1-0 away from home - signals a potential tricky tie for Juve who may have to be patient to get the breakthrough?
Brazil u20 v costa rica under 20 - 1.24 - can we trust the nippers ?
Shaktar v Obolon -1.11 - looks like a newly promotedside who should pose no problems to SUper Cup finalists
Galatarary v Eskicehirspor - 1.24 - have won all 6 matches this season - only once have they failed to score 3 goals and that was away -consistently scored 3 or 4 at home - opponents have not lost this season and have drawn all 3 away games this season but not faced the big teams yet - 2 0-0 away games indicate potential tight defensive tactic so if Gala make the first breakthrough this could offer a good trade

SHORTLIST
This really is taking forever given the broadband
355 Curragh - St Nicholas abbey to place 1.11 -faith in Ballydoyle
Shaktar look trustworthy at 1.11 to oblige against newly promoted side.
Galatasary perhaps with a vie to trading if they score first given the oppositions likelness for drawing away from home and 0-0's away from home. Sequencially ,of course, having drawn twice 0-0 away from home, this sequence is open to being broken

ONE A DAY
St Nicholas Abbey for me today albeit at a poor price but should oblige

Saturday 26 September 2009

26/9 - sorry-looks like it didnt publish initially

8-0 Spain - bet of the decade at the odds - 1/5 half time/fulltime was a gift from the Gods
Watchi' out for Tahiti's next games especially against Nigeria who lost yesterday (man sent off) as this will be a goalfest or the Nigerian boys.

215 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Jacqueline Quest, 7/1 Marie Cuddy, 8/1 Let Them Eat Cake, 10/1 Angelena Ballerina, 12/1 A Pocketful Of Rye, 14/1 Pathway To Heaven, 20/1 Sparkling Smile, 33/1 Goodison Goal, 66/1 Lady Pacha, Madame Excelerate.

DIOMED VERDICT: JACQUELINE QUEST is hard to oppose.

hard to beat, price gapper but again only a single run. Always at Chester we have to check any draw bias .Again let the odds do the work but find a reason to justify the odds - at present the single run is the problem but plenty of non runners mean fewer opponents

240 MR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Barizan, 4/1 Forty Thirty, 9/1 Tombov, 10/1 Strikemaster, 11/1 Royal Max, 12/1 Classic Contours, 14/1 Nicky Nutjob, 16/1 Lakeman, 20/1 Miss Gibboa, 25/1 George Nympton, Strong Storm, 28/1 Richo, 33/1 Guga, 50/1 Highland Storm, 100/1 Hunting Magic.

DIOMED VERDICT: BARIZAN improved again when making all for a wide-margin win at Newton Abbot last time and ought to be very hard to catch if in the same form again.
Barizan falls into the Hard to beat category -has won last twice and market expects him to be competitive
McCoy onboard 9 if recovered from Fontwell fall earlier in week (I think he took day off yesterday)

320 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Oscar Dan Dan, 6/4 High Gales, 4/1 Beckett Rock, 14/1 Auenschutze, 25/1 Airgead Sios, 50/1 Borrowdale, Frankly Supreme, Rosanavic.
only 3 under 20/1 ,one of which is Ruby on an odds on shot - concern - 2 mile 6


355 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 King Troy, 5/2 Robert The Brave, 4/1 Khachaturian, 11/2 Postmaster, 16/1 Ruff Diamond.

DIOMED VERDICT: Robert The Brave is considered but there's a lot to like about KING TROY who has already progressed to a BHA rating of 140 and shown a really determined attitude.

Alan King - one of the big stables. The 4 for King troy in recent form was only by 2 lengths in a 16 runner field - indicates he seems to consistently be at the business end of races = places!

415 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Rip Van Winkle, 2/1 Delegator, 6/1 Aqlaam, 20/1 Zacinto,

DIOMED VERDICT: Likely RIP VAN WINKLE will try to run the stamina out of Delegator and a repeat of his last two efforts will make him a hard horse to pass.

Mouthwatering clash and surely will involve Rip and Delegator for place only purposes? One clear outsider and one fly in the ointment.

645 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Arty Crafty, 5/1 Foxtrot Charlie, 10/1 Piquante, Transformer, 12/1 Noble Dictator, 16/1 Fine Tolerance, Freedom Fire, Hip Hip Hooray, 20/1 Colangnik, Refuse Toulouse, 33/1 The Dial House, 50/1 Allexes, 100/1 Ma Patrice, Whispered Lands.

DIOMED VERDICT: Arty Crafty looks plain lazy and FOXTROT CHARLIE, who's again liable to have plenty of use made of him from the inside stall, is a sensible each-way alternative.

Not a class 6 0-60 but a class 5 0-70 handicap price gapper - on a hatrick and priced to be competitive - hint of " hard to beat" about him, but hint that it's a horse that takes a lot of persuading - having said that has won twice and is a likely Prescott handicap plot to run up a sequence?

choice was rip van winkle but I have no idea why it didnt publish