Friday 31 July 2009

31/7 UPDATE

More success yesterday, I was especially pleased with the footy - Fulham I suspect warrant serious consideration when priced to win this season.
230 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Barizan, Talimos, 11/2 True Britannia, 10/1 The Boat Shed, 20/1 Graycliffe, 25/1 Diamond Dee, 50/1 Indigo Belle.

DIOMED VERDICT: Capable Flat recruit BARIZAN won readily on his hurdling debut and can shrug off his latest disappointment.

7 runners, only 3 under 10/1. Market will be interesting later on ( only 915am) UPDATEFront 2 are 1.55 to place. Market is illiquid at time of writing.

305 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Benefit Game, 5/1 Danny Zuko, 8/1 Bennynthejets, Hareem, 10/1 Old Peak Road, 12/1 Bonne Noel´s, 14/1 First Boy, Morestead, That´s An Honour, 16/1 Pipers Legend, 20/1 Sandy´s Legend.

DIOMED VERDICT: BENEFIT GAME won with something in hand over hurdles last week and can translate that improvement back over fences.

Price gapper here in BEnefit game, stronger in the live market at present.
Front 3 have 5 lb and 7 lb claiming jockeys on board which may hint at inexperience especially when you have Choc Thornton on Old Peak Road 1.4 to place in another illiquid market. My concern is the relative inexperience of the jockey onboard this one

315 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Truly Asia, 6/1 Day Of The Eagle, Shaaridh, 8/1 Royal Defence, 10/1 Emiratesdotcom, Step Into Sunshine, 14/1 King Of Eden, Queens Flight, 20/1 Dalesway, 25/1 Blastie, 33/1 Alacity, Beat The Shower, Doctor Of Music, Italian Dame, Meml, Wings Of Kintyre, 50/1 Clanachy.

DIOMED VERDICT: TRULY ASIA (nap) ran another promising race at Newmarket and it'll be disappointing if he's not up to winning an ordinary maiden like this.

Price gapper here in this 17 runner maiden (YIKES!) -Dalesway a possible mover
UPDATE - only 2 under 14/1 in this 17 runner maiden. Highly progressive fav is 1.24 to place in another illiquid market.
Not doubting the fav's ability, I am concerned with so many juveniles running
350 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Alicante, 6/1 Bollin Judith, 13/2 Upton Seas, 10/1 Dispol Diva, Madamlily, Musical Maze, 25/1 Lady Dunhill, Petella, 40/1 Goswick, 50/1 Katie Girl, 100/1 Knock Three Times.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALICANTE can defy another penalty at the expense of \Bollin Judith, who may find this too sharp, and bUpton Seas

Price gapper in a 0-70 class 5 handicap must warrant attention.1.23 to place - on a hatrick and we know all about multiple handicap winners but this one is odds on and priced to be competitive again under Seb Sanders

400 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Dick Turpin, 3/1 Rakaan, Showcasing, 8/1 Buzzword, 10/1 Moran Gra, 16/1 Nosedive, 25/1 Bould Mover, Ghostwing, Stargaze, 33/1 Lucky Like.

DIOMED VERDICT: Showcasing is going places but ground on the soft side is expected to help DICK TURPIN more.

Showcasing an interesting non runner as originally one of 3 under 8/1.
Should increase the price gap between Dick and Rakaan and the rest of the field.
Dick Turpin would be my choice here simply because Spencer is on Rakaan 1.2 to place for a solidly backed Dick Turpin -the hope is Richard Huges can take advnatage of Showcasing's absence

450 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cooksgrove Lady, 6/4 Pokanoket, 14/1 Simply Splendid, 16/1 Dree Hill, 20/1 Lunan Bay, 25/1 Ninah, Tia Tara, 40/1 Tallow Bride, 100/1 Shady Olive.

DIOMED VERDICT: COOKSGROVE LADY appears to face a tougher assignment conceding weight to the 112-rated Pokanoket but she should be capable of further improvement.

Front 2 make up pretty much all of the market. McCoy versus a 7lb claimer. Like Choc Thornton, McCoy on a short priced fav must always be considered.
1.1 and 1.11 the front 2 to place. The market seems to think Cooksgrove LAdy still has more to offer after 3 wins already and a great weight to carry. To all intents and purposes the market expects a 2 horse race.
Winning runs always end which is my concern with Cooksgrove, but are there 3 other horses that will beat this one?

555 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Taajub, 9/4 New Christmas, 8/1 Arabian Pride, Kona Coast, 16/1 Fardyieh, 25/1 Ice Viking, 33/1 Gabriel´s Spirit, Maldon Prom, 50/1 Al Barq, The Ducking Stool, 66/1 Electric City,

DIOMED VERDICT: Experience could give TAAJUB the edge over New Christmas.

PRice gapper now that New Christmas has drifted to 5/1. Fav now odds on but bear in mind this is a maiden race and there are some debutants here too 1.16 to place shows extreme confidence in a maiden juvenile who has only had one run

610 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Crocus Rose, 5/1 Gosforth Park, 7/1 Deauville Flyer, Inside Knowledge, Theola, 20/1 Best Bidder, Rebel Prince, 33/1 Hit The Switch.

DIOMED VERDICT: CROCUS ROSE looked in need of a good test last time and is a confident selection.

Archetypal price gapper here, but note heavy ground. 3 perceived outsiders too should , hopefully, not be involved. 1.28 to place. HEavy ground still the concern
UPDATE
645 Haydock
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Search For The Key, 5/2 Sweet Mirasol, 9/2 Regardless, 10/1 Sharp Shoes, 12/1 Petougg, 25/1 Fibs And Flannel, 50/1 Sixbox, 66/1 Stanley Bridge.

DIOMED VERDICT: SEARCH FOR THE KEY is in all the big 2yo races and it will be disappointing if he is not able to cope with a couple that have shown just modest form.

2 non runners leave 6 fighting for 3 places and a 33/1 outsider who can hopefully be discounted, leaves 5 and 3 places. Regardless has the experience and Search is he debutant with all the big race entries. A look nearer race time is advised here.

725 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sublime Talent, 7/2 Chebona Bula, 5/1 Viceroy Of India, 10/1 Lillywhite Leader, 20/1 La Soie, Muscati, Table Forty Six, 25/1 Indian Haze.

Watch the market here as there's Wels/Smullen and Ballydoyle horses involved 1.1 to place on Sublime

825 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Universal Truth, 3/1 Bahrain Storm, 9/2 Baracas, 8/1 Bashkirov, 10/1 De Valira, Song Of Pride, 14/1 No Stopping Sarah, 33/1 Georgie, Macidoni, Thewritinonthewall.






Only 4 under 20/1 in the live market include a Weld/Smullen odds on fav 1.08 to place

FOOTY
19:30 Standard Liege vs St Truiden 1/6
Start of the Juliper league - 1.25 to win
19:30 Babelsberg vs Bayer Leverkusen 14/1 5/1 1/8
German Cup game. Will need to see a strong Bayer side who may still be in pre season mode
1/8 for an away side should ensure victory? Might be in running too this game
BAbelsberg are in the Regionaliga Nord and should pose no real problems to a team who finshed 9th in the Bundesliga as long as they play a strong side
1.19 to win and in running so could be a play today
19:30 Wehen vs Wolfsburg 11/1 9/2 1/6

German CUp again


Tottenham play Hull and are 1.62 to prevail. I think this is a far east game and is, as ever, an ultimately meaningless game

SHORTLIST
Blog a bit earlier as I have to go out
315 THIRSK - Truly Asia has the look of a juvenile who is consistent and improving. 1.24 to place comes with risks such as 16 opponents!
450 BAngor - cooksgrove lady was a place only selection for me last time, and as one of only 2 under 14/1, is expected, under McCoy to be competitive again.
1.1 and 1.11 the front 2 is stingy but perhaps indicative of "dead wood" in this race. McCoy is always a positive on ultra shorties and the hope is the horse has not done all his winning with the previous hatrick and can continue to at least place.
As ever we ar over the jumps and take those risks with us.
Heavy ground at Haydock precludes any involvement
On the footballing side, I am taken by Bayer Leverkeusen at 1.19 in an in running match against a non league side in the German Cup. A 730pm start allows us to scout for team news for BAyer - complacency we don't need. 14/1 the home side with Ladbrokes tells you their considered chances.

ONE A DAY
Were it not for 16 opponents Truly Asia would be considered. Cooksgrove Lady at 1.1 has AP McCoy on board which is a great plus. I am taken ,at the prices, by Bayer Leverkeusen on the proviso only that we see the first team and trade in running too.

As this does not go off until 730pm, if the market vibes are good for Cooksgrove lady, then I will consider playing the McCoy mount before




PRice gapp


Thursday 30 July 2009

30/7 UPDATE

Tawaagg - no problems yesterday
Update a little early as I have to go out today

205 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Weeping Willow, 15/8 Gundaroo, 10/1 Baileys Gleam, 12/1 Bintalwaadi, Fairy Promises, 14/1 Caramelita, 16/1 Gracelightening, 20/1 In The Slips, 25/1 Hulcote Rose, 33/1 Casey´s Rebel, 50/1 Antoella, 66/1 Ellies Image,

DIOMED VERDICT: Gundaroo has fallen a little short of expectations and newcomer WEEPING WILLOW may well prove too good.

Weeping willow a non runner so surely this opens things up to Gundaroo
6 debutants in this maiden
UPDATE - only 6 runners remain with 3 places 1.08 currently for Gundaroo. I suspect the defection of the runners is down to the ground?
Yes, as suspected, the ground is heavy at Nottingham which throws a spanner in the works somewhat, especially when considering 2 year olds and a fav yet to run on heavy. A simple 50/50 race this one, 6 horses 3 places. 11/1 the outsider now tells us that heavy ground has made this something of a leveller?

225 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 High Gales, 11/4 Gemini Ahhs, 14/1 Alfie Noakes, Art Value, Hammer, 20/1 Adage, Hurstpierpoint, 50/1 Ballygorey, Mouseen, Squadron Leader, 100/1 Amazon Attraction, Diamanpeg, Kaftan Lad, Lady Penelopy, Mayfair Tambourine.

DIOMED VERDICT: HIGH GALES had the remainder well beaten when second to a well-backed winner at Uttoxeter and he can go one better.

A maiden hurdle and 2 only under 14/1, High Gales has Choc Thornton on for J J LAmbe 1.11 and 1.21 the front 2, the only 2 horses under 14/1 Only 4 horses under 25/1 are the only ones to consider it would seem
I think Choc Thornton, along with mcCoy and Walsh, is the kind of name I want to entrust with a shortie ,to get the job done, bar of course a fall/ pulled up/unseat rider ( as has happened before even under Choc!)
6 horses 100/1 or over hint at a lot of dead wood here -no ground concerns

300 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tribiani, 2/1 Tora Petcha, 7/1 Noubian, 10/1 Dobravany, 14/1 Bernabeu, Outback Bob, 20/1 Titfer, 33/1 Briannsta, Eddystone, Encore Belle, Shrewd Dude, 66/1 Jethro Wheeler, 100/1 Glenargo.

DIOMED VERDICT: NOUBIAN is relegated to a seller for the first time and could make an impact if conditions continue to deteriorate.

Only 5 under 25/1 - Tora Petcha a late non runner really opens things up for Tribiani? Yes this is a selling race but the original betting forecast had only 2 under 7/1 and one of them has gone now.1.2 to place
Only 4 under double figure odds remain.
Rhys Flint claims 3 lbs and he's a good solid newcomer.
Of course we all know about sellers and potential inconsistencies.

UPDATE
325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Schiaparelli, 11/2 Askar Tau, Enroller, 13/2 Mourilyan, 7/1 Caracciola, 10/1 Friston Forest, 12/1 Centennial, 16/1 Tungsten Strike, 20/1 The Betchworth Kid, 33/1 Judgethemoment.

DIOMED VERDICT: SCHIAPARELLI is a strong fancy, having by some way the best form and with the signs looking very good for his lasting 2m.

Price gap remains in the live betting market and a solid 2/1 for Frankie's mount in a muddling middle distance race 1.62 relays the compeitive nature of this race

335 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Intense Suspense, 11/4 Choumakeur, 8/1 Jackie Boy, Orchard House, 10/1 Pipers Legend, 12/1 Avoine, 14/1 Rapid Return, River Ripples, 16/1 Working Late, 25/1 Bathwick Lucy, Pagan Sword, 100/1 Marado.

DIOMED VERDICT: INTENSE SUSPENSE gets lots of weight off Choumakeur and can make the most of it.

Fav is a non runner and Choumakeur is the price gapper now, but carries a lot of weight and may be vulnerable. The question is - although this welter burden may stop him winning, will it stop him placing. We need to check ground conditions as well 1.42 to place and relatively inexperienced 5 lb claiming jockey employed to help offset the weight. Not today for me I dont think
BUT if we go by the betting forecast, with Intense surprise out and only 8 runners remaining, is there still hope for a place?

UPDATE
350 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Mount Hermon, 4/1 Mick´s Dancer, 5/1 Persian Peril, 13/2 Rosbay, 7/1 Sri Kuantan, 8/1 Puzzlemaster, 10/1 Best Prospect, 12/1 Hurlingham, 20/1 Taaresh.

DIOMED VERDICT: PERSIAN PERIL will love the ground and still looks progressive.

5 horses remain and Persian Peril the new fav who apparently loves the ground 1.27 in a 5 horse race with only 2 to beat to place
OR do you think Persian Peril will get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race?

420 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dual Gales, 2/1 Glenstal Abbey, 6/1 Carsonstown Boy, 8/1 Onzo Mor, 10/1 Keoghs Bar, Woodland Traveller, 12/1 Stomers Cross, 14/1 Mushtaaq, 20/1 Capall Eile, 25/1 The Three Colleens, 33/1 Onecooleturtle.





McCoy versus Walsh here -another mouth watering clash 1.22 and 1.15 the front 2 - you know my thoughts on these top heavy races - one usually falters - BUT WHICH ONE?

425 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Expressive, 9/2 Fanunalter, 5/1 Landofthefourones, 10/1 Illusive Spirit, 12/1 Chateauneuf, Herecomethegirls, 100/1 Group Leader, Largem, Lilly Royal, Mythical Thrill,

DIOMED VERDICT: EXPRESSIVE looks a nice prospect and bumped into a good one on her debut.

2nd fav is out which hopefully makes Expressive's job easier - another maiden and one run only for this fav - UPDATE - fav is out now so no play here

UPDATE
500 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Deutschland, 8/1 Northern Alliance, Vital Plot, 9/1 Indian Pace, 12/1 Cuan Na Grai, Eagle´s Pass, Truckers Delight, 14/1 Fingers, Fisher Bridge, Raise Your Heart, See U Bob, 16/1 Bahrain Storm, Silverhand, Time Electric, 20/1 Decoy Daddy, Fosters Cross, Lucky Wish, Stage Manager, 25/1 Sarteano, 33/1 Finns Cross,

Typical big field at Galway and Deutschland under Ruby is a price gapper here 5/2 - - - - - 10/1 sencond fav ( happens to be McCoy again) Dare we take the hint of this price gap?
1.74 to place in a 4 the place race recounts the task facing the fav but at the same time it's a cracking price for the Walsh/Mullins partnership and is ideal for target profit per dayers rather than level stakes players as the stakes will be so small to earn your target amount per day

520 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Billie Magern, 9/4 Corporation, 8/1 Lapina, 20/1 Letitbeasurprise, 25/1 Fealing Real, 33/1 Bandeau Charmer, Filly So Fickle, 66/1 Simplyirresistible.

DIOMED VERDICT: BILLIE MAGERN ought to win this if he's worth an official mark of 123.

3rd fav a non runner leaves 2 under 20/1 in a hopeful 3 places race. Choc Thornton on Corporation again for J J Lambe 1.07 and 1.11 relate the apparent ease the front 2 now face with 3rd fav out - 3 places - and bar any accidents, this should surely involve these 2, the only 2 under 14/1

UPDATE
550 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Cailin Na Ri, 11/4 Rockys Choice, 3/1 Dinarius, 13/2 Bannville, 12/1 Poppy Parade, 16/1 Duneen Dream, 20/1 Planetarium, Vertueux, 33/1 Shipslog, 40/1 Champion De Sou, Minstalad, 50/1 Lady Korrianda, 100/1 Revalley, Tubby Nugget.

DIOMED VERDICT: Rockys Choice and Dinarius enter calculations but CAILIN NA RI is taken to build on her decent effort at Worcester.

Fav a non runner -only 4 under 20/1 in the live market should be the ones to consider - I suspec that following the market nearer race time can allow us to make the key distinction regarding who to chose to place

645 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bahraj, 2/1 Living It Large, 3/1 Dower Glen, 10/1 Pink Lemonade, 33/1 Chilean Fizz, Grace Jicaro, Psychopathicsandra, 50/1 Lady Laurem.

DIOMED VERDICT: There may not be much between the promising once-raced pair LIVING IT LARGE and Bahraj.

No live prices yet but Bahraj is the Johnston horse here and if backed - well, you know the deal!
UPDATE - now provisional fav and 1.2 to place - many hours til race time so live market must be consilted and if prominent then Bahraj could, I hope, keep the superb Johnston maiden form going

745 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Keisha Kayleigh, 11/2 Zennerman, 6/1 Masterofceremonies, 7/1 Red Skipper, 9/1 King Of Legend, 10/1 Bourse, Papa´s Princess, 16/1 Jamieson Gold, 33/1 Boy Racer, 66/1 Ducal Regancy Duke, Smart Pick.

DIOMED VERDICT: RED SKIPPER might prove too sharp for Keisha Kayleigh round here and is w, shorth chancing with his yard in such good form.

Price gapper here but no early prices to check against 1.26 in an illiquid market

FOOTBALL
18:00 CSKA Sofia vs Derry City 1/4
18:00 Vetra vs Fulham 11/2 3/1 2/5
I like WOY as a manager and Fulham, if 2/5 I suspect ,can be relied upon in this Europa league match - we are scuppered a little by the poor liquidity in the market
18:15 Rapid Vienna vs APOP Kinyras 1/5
18:45 Steaua Bucharest vs Motherwell 1/3
19:30 Randers FC vs Hamburg 6/1 11/4 2/5
19:30 Bruges vs FC Lahti 1/3
19:45 Fenerbahçe vs Honved 1/5
19:45 Roma vs Ghent 1/5
19:45 PSV vs Cherno More Varn 1/5
19:45 Sevojno vs Lille 11/2 3/1 2/5
19:45 Bayern Munich vs Manchester Utd 11/8 11/5 8/5
Final of the meaningless AUDI Cup, the only purpose of which is to get you to buy an AUDI because AUDI's are cool ,or something. Man Utd and Bayern both played yesterday so expect squad players to play a part today.
20:00 Monaco vs Inter 13/5 12/5 4/5
The recent Inter signings of Etoo and Hleb - if chosen, could help swing this in Inter's favour - Inter look rock solid for the coming season .

All of the above fooy matches, pretty much, are meaningful as they are UEFA Europa League matches so it's a matter really of chosing the 1/5 shot most likely to get the result - preference for in running perhaps?
Immediately Roma stand out, perhaps more by reputation and recogniseability than anything else
As already mentioned I like Woy's Fulham side who are consistent and strong and ,if 2/5, well the hope is they can be trusted to deliver. Perhaps laying Vetra here will be the safer bet?
PSV have a domestic reputation for goals and they play CHerno More Varn - 3rd place in Domestic league last season
Fenerbahche look good at home against Honved?
SHORTLIST
MArkets not properly formed yet,
225 Stratford,425 Nottingham, and 520 Stratford are the 3 to concentrate on on my update later on.
Footy wise, Fulham and Roma stand out in the footy.
There must be an angle in with the Man Utd/Bayern match

Roma match is in running. A large proportion of the matches today suffer from lack of liquidity. I am quite taken by a lay of Vetra v Fulham today. I just think Fulham are rock solid and consistent
Fener are 1.21 against Honved
SHORTLIST
Huge list of interesting potential qualifiers today
205 NOTT - yes it's heavy but its 6 runners and 3 places and Gundaroo remains - but 1.08.
225 STRATFORD - you can set your watch by him - Choc on High Gales at 1.11 should deliver a place ba any falls etc
350 NOTT - 5 runners and 3 places - simple probability race - the hope is that any pick will not get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race. 1.28 to palce for Perisan Peril looks a huge price. Can Winston ensure he does not get beaten by 3 in this 5 horse race?
520 STRATFORD
Looks a 2 horse race if ever there was one (barring accidents - this is the jumps) -1.07 Billie McGern and 1.12 Corporation -again Choc on the latter horse .
7 runners - 3 places - 3rd fav out
600 - Lay Vetra v Fulham. Currently 10 to lay but should be shorter as the market is illiquid
745 Fenerbahce c Honved - 1.21 -should oblige
745 Roma v Gent 1.28 and in running

ONE A DAY
225 Stratfod - High Gales for me at 1.11 looks v appealing but the 520 sees 7 runners and 3 places - only 4 to beat to place for Choc on Corporation at 1.12 -an equivalent price with fewer opponents and the same great jockey on board.
If you can go in running today, then there's plenty of opportunuty to bag your one a day before this one goes off.
Hope I've made the right choice.
Perhaps you'd like to take advantage of that 5 horse race and 3 places at Nottingham BUT knowing that heavy ground is the concern there. From a purely probability perspective you have a superb opportunity in the 350 NOTT to pick one horse NOT to be beaten by 3 in a 5 horse race

These are the standouts for me with preference for the 520 but I may venture into the other 2 earlier time permitting. Good luck whatever you chose today

Wednesday 29 July 2009

29/7 UPDATE

As I said in my one a day, the safest option was to lay Accrington in the match odds market, and so it proved as they led at half time but drew 2-2 .
Main AIm epitomised my thoughts regarding big meetings - unplaced, but Monsieur was imperious under an imperious, and lucky, ride from Richard Hughes - great to watch
Rangers won with ease.
Honimiere won the 50/50 race so plenty of opportunities yesterday

200 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tawaagg, 7/2 Hintsnallegations, 5/1 Baily Rock, 6/1 Grangeclare Gold, 8/1 Woodland Traveller, 10/1 No Stopping Sarah, 16/1 Logan´s Manor, 20/1 Nephin Lad, 50/1 Onecooleturtle, 66/1 Clifton Pier.

No analysis or prices -will have to buy the newspaper - Tawaag represents Walsh/Mullins and must be considered - Hints and allegations a late non runner has shortened Tawaag to 10/11 in a race where only 4 are under 20/1 - considered
UPDATE 1.12 to place (was 1.15) - 3 at 50/1 or bigger , 2nd fav out, looks a good opportunity -right jockey on board.

315 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Peaceful Rule, 4/1 Granny McPhee, Pacific Bay, 8/1 Ishiadancer, 11/1 Feet Of Fury, Moon Money, 14/1 Unconsoled, 20/1 Virtuality, 25/1 Boy Racer, Magic Haze.

DIOMED VERDICT: The selection is PEACEFUL RULE (nap) who exceeds the limit for 0-70 maiden company after being reassessed for his recent Beverley effort.

PRice gapper here returns to maiden company after nose 2nd in handicap last time
UPDATE - still strong at the head of the market. A race with a lot of exposed maidens. Has gone down the 3 losing maidens and then a handicap route and performed very well in said handicap.
10 runners, and only 4 under 10/1
1.3 to place

325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rip Van Winkle, 9/4 Ghanaati, 7/2 Paco Boy, 12/1 Lord Shanakill, 25/1 Forgotten Voice, 33/1 Beacon Lodge, Lahaleeb, 100/1 Mia´s Boy, 200/1 Malibu Bay.

DIOMED VERDICT: GHANAATI stepped up markedly on her 1000 Guineas-winning form when taking the Coronation at Ascot in great style. Rip Van Winkle is next best.

Only 3 under 12/1 , only 4 under 25/1. Rip might not run -trainer decision this a.m -at present this looks to concern 3 -a good race to lay an outsider to place ?
Ghanaati the one for support at present, threatening Rip Van Winkle
1.29 , 1.43 , 1.63 to place the front 3
Ghanaati the talking horse from this race - best filly in Europe . Rip not won group 1 company.
Will this be a 3 horse race?
Dutching the front 3 is equivalent to a 1.14 shot which is very interesting. BUT will this be a shock result? After all these are ALL quality animals and we saw with Main Aim yesterday that the market can get it totally wrong

UPDATE
345 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Blackstairmountain, 3/1 Miss Chaparral, 9/2 Megans Joy, 7/1 Abroad, 8/1 Baracas, 12/1 Azana, Hawk Flight, Shes A Singer, 20/1 Action Master, Timisvar, 25/1 En Solitaire, Kingcove, More Gold, Siciliando, 33/1 Peggy Gilhooley, 50/1 Glasson House, 66/1 Camden Princess, Labasheeda,

3rd and 5th favourites are non runners which means Black and Miss are sharing favouratism at 6/4. Both represent big Galway festival stables - Mullins and Weld
1.23 and 1.27 to place

435 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Poppy Seed, 5/1 Nimue, So Surreal, 11/2 Beyond Desire, 6/1 Damietta, 13/2 Bonheurs Art, 8/1 First Term, 12/1 Mystic Millie, 20/1 Specialising.

DIOMED VERDICT: Market moves for Group-entered Beyond Desire, Nimue or Bonheurs Art would be interesting but perhaps POPPY SEED can make her previous experience count.

Poppy seed is out - BIG move for Beyond desire now a strong 13/8 favourite - nothing else to go on apart from the market - 1.43 to place

615 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Precious Gem, 13/8 Maurice Utrillo, 6/1 Prayer Boat, 8/1 Karma Lina, 10/1 Screen Diva, 14/1 Modern Day Icon, 16/1 Are You The One, Park Ranger,
20/1 Dynamique, 33/1 Buckle Away, 50/1 Likeitorlovette.

Heffernan/O'Brien and Weld/Smullen are the first 2 horses. 1.27 and 1.22 to place - as ever with these top heavy markets - who to chose? Faith that both will place?

and that's it at time of writing (1030am) in a very very difficult day indeed.
FOOTY
A lot of very illiquid markets at present
Games of interest - Man Utd v Boca
Beijing v Hull
Dagenham redbridge v Brum
Celtic v Dinamo Moscow in the Champions League (not in running)
FC Kopenhagen v Staebeck (in running)
Shaktar v FC Timosaura
SHORTLIST UPDATE
200 Galway - looks good now for Tawaagg with 2nd fav a non runner. Ruby Walsh has won twice already on this fav and looks a probability race to me with 4 only under 20/1

325 GOODWOOD - intriguing and very strong head of the market.
RIP - recovered from the slight concern with the hoof? Not won in group 1 company - 1.33
GHANAATI - top bird! Filly to stamp her authority? - 1.4 to place
I am taken by Ghanaati here I think with the proven group 1 winning form in the hope this is a 4 horse race and there are no Main Aim type surprises as can happen in very hgh quality races
ALTERNATIVES
Dutch the top 3 for a 1.14 equivalent bet
LAy someone like Lahaleeb to place (6) in the hope this is a 3 horse race - equivalent of a 1.19 bet - this horse was simply chosen because of price.
2nd lowest to lay to place is 16.5
FOOTBALL
Under 4.5 goals in the Man utd v Boca Juniors match is 1.14 - the hope is this is tight - 0-0 is only 13 on betfair which hints to me that the market expects early tight exchanges- again another ultimately meaningless match, but by far the strongest opposition of United's pre season to date
Laying first goal odds 0-10 at 6 is the same as 1.19 backing and may be enticing if the market is accurate that this is going to be a tight match

ONE A DAY
FAith for me in the Walsh/Mullins combo for the 200 Galway and the hope is that Tawaagg can ake advantage of the absence of nearest market rival as well as the fact he is one of 4 under 20/1 (and we hope it is these 4 who are the ones to focus on)
Of course all depends on not falling/unseating/being pulled up

Many angles in the 325 Goodwood if this does not take your fancy