31/7 UPDATE

More success yesterday, I was especially pleased with the footy - Fulham I suspect warrant serious consideration when priced to win this season.
230 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Barizan, Talimos, 11/2 True Britannia, 10/1 The Boat Shed, 20/1 Graycliffe, 25/1 Diamond Dee, 50/1 Indigo Belle.

DIOMED VERDICT: Capable Flat recruit BARIZAN won readily on his hurdling debut and can shrug off his latest disappointment.

7 runners, only 3 under 10/1. Market will be interesting later on ( only 915am) UPDATEFront 2 are 1.55 to place. Market is illiquid at time of writing.

305 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Benefit Game, 5/1 Danny Zuko, 8/1 Bennynthejets, Hareem, 10/1 Old Peak Road, 12/1 Bonne Noel´s, 14/1 First Boy, Morestead, That´s An Honour, 16/1 Pipers Legend, 20/1 Sandy´s Legend.

DIOMED VERDICT: BENEFIT GAME won with something in hand over hurdles last week and can translate that improvement back over fences. Price gapper here in BEnefit game, stronger in the live market at present. Front 3 have 5 lb and 7 lb claiming jockeys on board which may hint at inexperience especially when you have Choc Thornton on Old Peak Road 1.4 to place in another illiquid market. My concern is the relative inexperience of the jockey onboard this one 315 THIRSK BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Truly Asia, 6/1 Day Of The Eagle, Shaaridh, 8/1 Royal Defence, 10/1 Emiratesdotcom, Step Into Sunshine, 14/1 King Of Eden, Queens Flight, 20/1 Dalesway, 25/1 Blastie, 33/1 Alacity, Beat The Shower, Doctor Of Music, Italian Dame, Meml, Wings Of Kintyre, 50/1 Clanachy. DIOMED VERDICT: TRULY ASIA (nap) ran another promising race at Newmarket and it'll be disappointing if he's not up to winning an ordinary maiden like this. Price gapper here in this 17 runner maiden (YIKES!) -Dalesway a possible mover UPDATE - only 2 under 14/1 in this 17 runner maiden. Highly progressive fav is 1.24 to place in another illiquid market. Not doubting the fav's ability, I am concerned with so many juveniles running 350 THIRSK BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Alicante, 6/1 Bollin Judith, 13/2 Upton Seas, 10/1 Dispol Diva, Madamlily, Musical Maze, 25/1 Lady Dunhill, Petella, 40/1 Goswick, 50/1 Katie Girl, 100/1 Knock Three Times. DIOMED VERDICT: ALICANTE can defy another penalty at the expense of \Bollin Judith, who may find this too sharp, and bUpton Seas Price gapper in a 0-70 class 5 handicap must warrant attention.1.23 to place - on a hatrick and we know all about multiple handicap winners but this one is odds on and priced to be competitive again under Seb Sanders 400 GOODWOOD BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Dick Turpin, 3/1 Rakaan, Showcasing, 8/1 Buzzword, 10/1 Moran Gra, 16/1 Nosedive, 25/1 Bould Mover, Ghostwing, Stargaze, 33/1 Lucky Like. DIOMED VERDICT: Showcasing is going places but ground on the soft side is expected to help DICK TURPIN more. Showcasing an interesting non runner as originally one of 3 under 8/1. Should increase the price gap between Dick and Rakaan and the rest of the field. Dick Turpin would be my choice here simply because Spencer is on Rakaan 1.2 to place for a solidly backed Dick Turpin -the hope is Richard Huges can take advnatage of Showcasing's absence 450 BANGOR BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cooksgrove Lady, 6/4 Pokanoket, 14/1 Simply Splendid, 16/1 Dree Hill, 20/1 Lunan Bay, 25/1 Ninah, Tia Tara, 40/1 Tallow Bride, 100/1 Shady Olive. DIOMED VERDICT: COOKSGROVE LADY appears to face a tougher assignment conceding weight to the 112-rated Pokanoket but she should be capable of further improvement. Front 2 make up pretty much all of the market. McCoy versus a 7lb claimer. Like Choc Thornton, McCoy on a short priced fav must always be considered. 1.1 and 1.11 the front 2 to place. The market seems to think Cooksgrove LAdy still has more to offer after 3 wins already and a great weight to carry. To all intents and purposes the market expects a 2 horse race. Winning runs always end which is my concern with Cooksgrove, but are there 3 other horses that will beat this one? 555 NEWMARKET BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Taajub, 9/4 New Christmas, 8/1 Arabian Pride, Kona Coast, 16/1 Fardyieh, 25/1 Ice Viking, 33/1 Gabriel´s Spirit, Maldon Prom, 50/1 Al Barq, The Ducking Stool, 66/1 Electric City, DIOMED VERDICT: Experience could give TAAJUB the edge over New Christmas. PRice gapper now that New Christmas has drifted to 5/1. Fav now odds on but bear in mind this is a maiden race and there are some debutants here too 1.16 to place shows extreme confidence in a maiden juvenile who has only had one run 610 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Crocus Rose, 5/1 Gosforth Park, 7/1 Deauville Flyer, Inside Knowledge, Theola, 20/1 Best Bidder, Rebel Prince, 33/1 Hit The Switch. DIOMED VERDICT: CROCUS ROSE looked in need of a good test last time and is a confident selection. Archetypal price gapper here, but note heavy ground. 3 perceived outsiders too should , hopefully, not be involved. 1.28 to place. HEavy ground still the concern UPDATE 645 Haydock BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Search For The Key, 5/2 Sweet Mirasol, 9/2 Regardless, 10/1 Sharp Shoes, 12/1 Petougg, 25/1 Fibs And Flannel, 50/1 Sixbox, 66/1 Stanley Bridge. DIOMED VERDICT: SEARCH FOR THE KEY is in all the big 2yo races and it will be disappointing if he is not able to cope with a couple that have shown just modest form. 2 non runners leave 6 fighting for 3 places and a 33/1 outsider who can hopefully be discounted, leaves 5 and 3 places. Regardless has the experience and Search is he debutant with all the big race entries. A look nearer race time is advised here. 725 GALWAY BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sublime Talent, 7/2 Chebona Bula, 5/1 Viceroy Of India, 10/1 Lillywhite Leader, 20/1 La Soie, Muscati, Table Forty Six, 25/1 Indian Haze. Watch the market here as there's Wels/Smullen and Ballydoyle horses involved 1.1 to place on Sublime 825 GALWAY BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Universal Truth, 3/1 Bahrain Storm, 9/2 Baracas, 8/1 Bashkirov, 10/1 De Valira, Song Of Pride, 14/1 No Stopping Sarah, 33/1 Georgie, Macidoni, Thewritinonthewall. Only 4 under 20/1 in the live market include a Weld/Smullen odds on fav 1.08 to place FOOTY 19:30 Standard Liege vs St Truiden 1/6 Start of the Juliper league - 1.25 to win 19:30 Babelsberg vs Bayer Leverkusen 14/1 5/1 1/8 German Cup game. Will need to see a strong Bayer side who may still be in pre season mode 1/8 for an away side should ensure victory? Might be in running too this game BAbelsberg are in the Regionaliga Nord and should pose no real problems to a team who finshed 9th in the Bundesliga as long as they play a strong side 1.19 to win and in running so could be a play today 19:30 Wehen vs Wolfsburg 11/1 9/2 1/6 German CUp again Tottenham play Hull and are 1.62 to prevail. I think this is a far east game and is, as ever, an ultimately meaningless game SHORTLIST Blog a bit earlier as I have to go out 315 THIRSK - Truly Asia has the look of a juvenile who is consistent and improving. 1.24 to place comes with risks such as 16 opponents! 450 BAngor - cooksgrove lady was a place only selection for me last time, and as one of only 2 under 14/1, is expected, under McCoy to be competitive again. 1.1 and 1.11 the front 2 is stingy but perhaps indicative of "dead wood" in this race. McCoy is always a positive on ultra shorties and the hope is the horse has not done all his winning with the previous hatrick and can continue to at least place. As ever we ar over the jumps and take those risks with us. Heavy ground at Haydock precludes any involvement On the footballing side, I am taken by Bayer Leverkeusen at 1.19 in an in running match against a non league side in the German Cup. A 730pm start allows us to scout for team news for BAyer - complacency we don't need. 14/1 the home side with Ladbrokes tells you their considered chances. ONE A DAY Were it not for 16 opponents Truly Asia would be considered. Cooksgrove Lady at 1.1 has AP McCoy on board which is a great plus. I am taken ,at the prices, by Bayer Leverkeusen on the proviso only that we see the first team and trade in running too. As this does not go off until 730pm, if the market vibes are good for Cooksgrove lady, then I will consider playing the McCoy mount before

PRice gapp

30/7 UPDATE

Tawaagg - no problems yesterday
Update a little early as I have to go out today

205 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Weeping Willow, 15/8 Gundaroo, 10/1 Baileys Gleam, 12/1 Bintalwaadi, Fairy Promises, 14/1 Caramelita, 16/1 Gracelightening, 20/1 In The Slips, 25/1 Hulcote Rose, 33/1 Casey´s Rebel, 50/1 Antoella, 66/1 Ellies Image,

DIOMED VERDICT: Gundaroo has fallen a little short of expectations and newcomer WEEPING WILLOW may well prove too good.

Weeping willow a non runner so surely this opens things up to Gundaroo
6 debutants in this maiden
UPDATE - only 6 runners remain with 3 places 1.08 currently for Gundaroo. I suspect the defection of the runners is down to the ground?
Yes, as suspected, the ground is heavy at Nottingham which throws a spanner in the works somewhat, especially when considering 2 year olds and a fav yet to run on heavy. A simple 50/50 race this one, 6 horses 3 places. 11/1 the outsider now tells us that heavy ground has made this something of a leveller?

225 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 High Gales, 11/4 Gemini Ahhs, 14/1 Alfie Noakes, Art Value, Hammer, 20/1 Adage, Hurstpierpoint, 50/1 Ballygorey, Mouseen, Squadron Leader, 100/1 Amazon Attraction, Diamanpeg, Kaftan Lad, Lady Penelopy, Mayfair Tambourine.

DIOMED VERDICT: HIGH GALES had the remainder well beaten when second to a well-backed winner at Uttoxeter and he can go one better.

A maiden hurdle and 2 only under 14/1, High Gales has Choc Thornton on for J J LAmbe 1.11 and 1.21 the front 2, the only 2 horses under 14/1 Only 4 horses under 25/1 are the only ones to consider it would seem
I think Choc Thornton, along with mcCoy and Walsh, is the kind of name I want to entrust with a shortie ,to get the job done, bar of course a fall/ pulled up/unseat rider ( as has happened before even under Choc!)
6 horses 100/1 or over hint at a lot of dead wood here -no ground concerns

300 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tribiani, 2/1 Tora Petcha, 7/1 Noubian, 10/1 Dobravany, 14/1 Bernabeu, Outback Bob, 20/1 Titfer, 33/1 Briannsta, Eddystone, Encore Belle, Shrewd Dude, 66/1 Jethro Wheeler, 100/1 Glenargo.

DIOMED VERDICT: NOUBIAN is relegated to a seller for the first time and could make an impact if conditions continue to deteriorate.

Only 5 under 25/1 - Tora Petcha a late non runner really opens things up for Tribiani? Yes this is a selling race but the original betting forecast had only 2 under 7/1 and one of them has gone now.1.2 to place
Only 4 under double figure odds remain.
Rhys Flint claims 3 lbs and he's a good solid newcomer.
Of course we all know about sellers and potential inconsistencies.

UPDATE
325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Schiaparelli, 11/2 Askar Tau, Enroller, 13/2 Mourilyan, 7/1 Caracciola, 10/1 Friston Forest, 12/1 Centennial, 16/1 Tungsten Strike, 20/1 The Betchworth Kid, 33/1 Judgethemoment.

DIOMED VERDICT: SCHIAPARELLI is a strong fancy, having by some way the best form and with the signs looking very good for his lasting 2m.

Price gap remains in the live betting market and a solid 2/1 for Frankie's mount in a muddling middle distance race 1.62 relays the compeitive nature of this race

335 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Intense Suspense, 11/4 Choumakeur, 8/1 Jackie Boy, Orchard House, 10/1 Pipers Legend, 12/1 Avoine, 14/1 Rapid Return, River Ripples, 16/1 Working Late, 25/1 Bathwick Lucy, Pagan Sword, 100/1 Marado.

DIOMED VERDICT: INTENSE SUSPENSE gets lots of weight off Choumakeur and can make the most of it.

Fav is a non runner and Choumakeur is the price gapper now, but carries a lot of weight and may be vulnerable. The question is - although this welter burden may stop him winning, will it stop him placing. We need to check ground conditions as well 1.42 to place and relatively inexperienced 5 lb claiming jockey employed to help offset the weight. Not today for me I dont think
BUT if we go by the betting forecast, with Intense surprise out and only 8 runners remaining, is there still hope for a place?

UPDATE
350 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Mount Hermon, 4/1 Mick´s Dancer, 5/1 Persian Peril, 13/2 Rosbay, 7/1 Sri Kuantan, 8/1 Puzzlemaster, 10/1 Best Prospect, 12/1 Hurlingham, 20/1 Taaresh.

DIOMED VERDICT: PERSIAN PERIL will love the ground and still looks progressive.

5 horses remain and Persian Peril the new fav who apparently loves the ground 1.27 in a 5 horse race with only 2 to beat to place
OR do you think Persian Peril will get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race?

420 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dual Gales, 2/1 Glenstal Abbey, 6/1 Carsonstown Boy, 8/1 Onzo Mor, 10/1 Keoghs Bar, Woodland Traveller, 12/1 Stomers Cross, 14/1 Mushtaaq, 20/1 Capall Eile, 25/1 The Three Colleens, 33/1 Onecooleturtle.

McCoy versus Walsh here -another mouth watering clash 1.22 and 1.15 the front 2 - you know my thoughts on these top heavy races - one usually falters - BUT WHICH ONE?

425 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Expressive, 9/2 Fanunalter, 5/1 Landofthefourones, 10/1 Illusive Spirit, 12/1 Chateauneuf, Herecomethegirls, 100/1 Group Leader, Largem, Lilly Royal, Mythical Thrill,

DIOMED VERDICT: EXPRESSIVE looks a nice prospect and bumped into a good one on her debut.

2nd fav is out which hopefully makes Expressive's job easier - another maiden and one run only for this fav - UPDATE - fav is out now so no play here

UPDATE
500 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Deutschland, 8/1 Northern Alliance, Vital Plot, 9/1 Indian Pace, 12/1 Cuan Na Grai, Eagle´s Pass, Truckers Delight, 14/1 Fingers, Fisher Bridge, Raise Your Heart, See U Bob, 16/1 Bahrain Storm, Silverhand, Time Electric, 20/1 Decoy Daddy, Fosters Cross, Lucky Wish, Stage Manager, 25/1 Sarteano, 33/1 Finns Cross,

Typical big field at Galway and Deutschland under Ruby is a price gapper here 5/2 - - - - - 10/1 sencond fav ( happens to be McCoy again) Dare we take the hint of this price gap?
1.74 to place in a 4 the place race recounts the task facing the fav but at the same time it's a cracking price for the Walsh/Mullins partnership and is ideal for target profit per dayers rather than level stakes players as the stakes will be so small to earn your target amount per day

520 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Billie Magern, 9/4 Corporation, 8/1 Lapina, 20/1 Letitbeasurprise, 25/1 Fealing Real, 33/1 Bandeau Charmer, Filly So Fickle, 66/1 Simplyirresistible.

DIOMED VERDICT: BILLIE MAGERN ought to win this if he's worth an official mark of 123.

3rd fav a non runner leaves 2 under 20/1 in a hopeful 3 places race. Choc Thornton on Corporation again for J J Lambe 1.07 and 1.11 relate the apparent ease the front 2 now face with 3rd fav out - 3 places - and bar any accidents, this should surely involve these 2, the only 2 under 14/1

UPDATE
550 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Cailin Na Ri, 11/4 Rockys Choice, 3/1 Dinarius, 13/2 Bannville, 12/1 Poppy Parade, 16/1 Duneen Dream, 20/1 Planetarium, Vertueux, 33/1 Shipslog, 40/1 Champion De Sou, Minstalad, 50/1 Lady Korrianda, 100/1 Revalley, Tubby Nugget.

DIOMED VERDICT: Rockys Choice and Dinarius enter calculations but CAILIN NA RI is taken to build on her decent effort at Worcester.

Fav a non runner -only 4 under 20/1 in the live market should be the ones to consider - I suspec that following the market nearer race time can allow us to make the key distinction regarding who to chose to place

645 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bahraj, 2/1 Living It Large, 3/1 Dower Glen, 10/1 Pink Lemonade, 33/1 Chilean Fizz, Grace Jicaro, Psychopathicsandra, 50/1 Lady Laurem.

DIOMED VERDICT: There may not be much between the promising once-raced pair LIVING IT LARGE and Bahraj.

No live prices yet but Bahraj is the Johnston horse here and if backed - well, you know the deal!
UPDATE - now provisional fav and 1.2 to place - many hours til race time so live market must be consilted and if prominent then Bahraj could, I hope, keep the superb Johnston maiden form going

745 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Keisha Kayleigh, 11/2 Zennerman, 6/1 Masterofceremonies, 7/1 Red Skipper, 9/1 King Of Legend, 10/1 Bourse, Papa´s Princess, 16/1 Jamieson Gold, 33/1 Boy Racer, 66/1 Ducal Regancy Duke, Smart Pick.

DIOMED VERDICT: RED SKIPPER might prove too sharp for Keisha Kayleigh round here and is w, shorth chancing with his yard in such good form.

Price gapper here but no early prices to check against 1.26 in an illiquid market

FOOTBALL

18:00

CSKA Sofia vs Derry City

1/4

18:00

Vetra vs Fulham

11/2

3/1

2/5

I like WOY as a manager and Fulham, if 2/5 I suspect ,can be relied upon in this Europa league match - we are scuppered a little by the poor liquidity in the market

18:15

Rapid Vienna vs APOP Kinyras

1/5

18:45

Steaua Bucharest vs Motherwell

1/3

19:30

Randers FC vs Hamburg

6/1

11/4

2/5

19:30

Bruges vs FC Lahti

1/3

19:45

Fenerbahçe vs Honved

1/5

19:45

Roma vs Ghent

1/5

19:45

PSV vs Cherno More Varn

1/5

19:45

Sevojno vs Lille

11/2

3/1

2/5

19:45

Bayern Munich vs Manchester Utd

11/8

11/5

8/5

Final of the meaningless AUDI Cup, the only purpose of which is to get you to buy an AUDI because AUDI's are cool ,or something. Man Utd and Bayern both played yesterday so expect squad players to play a part today.

20:00

Monaco vs Inter

13/5

12/5

4/5

The recent Inter signings of Etoo and Hleb - if chosen, could help swing this in Inter's favour - Inter look rock solid for the coming season .

All of the above fooy matches, pretty much, are meaningful as they are UEFA Europa League matches so it's a matter really of chosing the 1/5 shot most likely to get the result - preference for in running perhaps?
Immediately Roma stand out, perhaps more by reputation and recogniseability than anything else
As already mentioned I like Woy's Fulham side who are consistent and strong and ,if 2/5, well the hope is they can be trusted to deliver. Perhaps laying Vetra here will be the safer bet?
PSV have a domestic reputation for goals and they play CHerno More Varn - 3rd place in Domestic league last season
Fenerbahche look good at home against Honved?
SHORTLIST
MArkets not properly formed yet,
225 Stratford,425 Nottingham, and 520 Stratford are the 3 to concentrate on on my update later on.
Footy wise, Fulham and Roma stand out in the footy.
There must be an angle in with the Man Utd/Bayern match

Roma match is in running. A large proportion of the matches today suffer from lack of liquidity. I am quite taken by a lay of Vetra v Fulham today. I just think Fulham are rock solid and consistent
Fener are 1.21 against Honved
SHORTLIST
Huge list of interesting potential qualifiers today
205 NOTT - yes it's heavy but its 6 runners and 3 places and Gundaroo remains - but 1.08.
225 STRATFORD - you can set your watch by him - Choc on High Gales at 1.11 should deliver a place ba any falls etc
350 NOTT - 5 runners and 3 places - simple probability race - the hope is that any pick will not get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race. 1.28 to palce for Perisan Peril looks a huge price. Can Winston ensure he does not get beaten by 3 in this 5 horse race?
520 STRATFORD
Looks a 2 horse race if ever there was one (barring accidents - this is the jumps) -1.07 Billie McGern and 1.12 Corporation -again Choc on the latter horse .
7 runners - 3 places - 3rd fav out
600 - Lay Vetra v Fulham. Currently 10 to lay but should be shorter as the market is illiquid
745 Fenerbahce c Honved - 1.21 -should oblige
745 Roma v Gent 1.28 and in running

ONE A DAY
225 Stratfod - High Gales for me at 1.11 looks v appealing but the 520 sees 7 runners and 3 places - only 4 to beat to place for Choc on Corporation at 1.12 -an equivalent price with fewer opponents and the same great jockey on board.
If you can go in running today, then there's plenty of opportunuty to bag your one a day before this one goes off.
Hope I've made the right choice.
Perhaps you'd like to take advantage of that 5 horse race and 3 places at Nottingham BUT knowing that heavy ground is the concern there. From a purely probability perspective you have a superb opportunity in the 350 NOTT to pick one horse NOT to be beaten by 3 in a 5 horse race

These are the standouts for me with preference for the 520 but I may venture into the other 2 earlier time permitting. Good luck whatever you chose today

29/7 UPDATE

As I said in my one a day, the safest option was to lay Accrington in the match odds market, and so it proved as they led at half time but drew 2-2 .
Main AIm epitomised my thoughts regarding big meetings - unplaced, but Monsieur was imperious under an imperious, and lucky, ride from Richard Hughes - great to watch
Rangers won with ease.
Honimiere won the 50/50 race so plenty of opportunities yesterday

200 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tawaagg, 7/2 Hintsnallegations, 5/1 Baily Rock, 6/1 Grangeclare Gold, 8/1 Woodland Traveller, 10/1 No Stopping Sarah, 16/1 Logan´s Manor, 20/1 Nephin Lad, 50/1 Onecooleturtle, 66/1 Clifton Pier.

No analysis or prices -will have to buy the newspaper - Tawaag represents Walsh/Mullins and must be considered - Hints and allegations a late non runner has shortened Tawaag to 10/11 in a race where only 4 are under 20/1 - considered
UPDATE 1.12 to place (was 1.15) - 3 at 50/1 or bigger , 2nd fav out, looks a good opportunity -right jockey on board.

315 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Peaceful Rule, 4/1 Granny McPhee, Pacific Bay, 8/1 Ishiadancer, 11/1 Feet Of Fury, Moon Money, 14/1 Unconsoled, 20/1 Virtuality, 25/1 Boy Racer, Magic Haze.

DIOMED VERDICT: The selection is PEACEFUL RULE (nap) who exceeds the limit for 0-70 maiden company after being reassessed for his recent Beverley effort.

PRice gapper here returns to maiden company after nose 2nd in handicap last time
UPDATE - still strong at the head of the market. A race with a lot of exposed maidens. Has gone down the 3 losing maidens and then a handicap route and performed very well in said handicap.
10 runners, and only 4 under 10/1
1.3 to place

325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rip Van Winkle, 9/4 Ghanaati, 7/2 Paco Boy, 12/1 Lord Shanakill, 25/1 Forgotten Voice, 33/1 Beacon Lodge, Lahaleeb, 100/1 Mia´s Boy, 200/1 Malibu Bay.

DIOMED VERDICT: GHANAATI stepped up markedly on her 1000 Guineas-winning form when taking the Coronation at Ascot in great style. Rip Van Winkle is next best.

Only 3 under 12/1 , only 4 under 25/1. Rip might not run -trainer decision this a.m -at present this looks to concern 3 -a good race to lay an outsider to place ?
Ghanaati the one for support at present, threatening Rip Van Winkle
1.29 , 1.43 , 1.63 to place the front 3
Ghanaati the talking horse from this race - best filly in Europe . Rip not won group 1 company.
Will this be a 3 horse race?
Dutching the front 3 is equivalent to a 1.14 shot which is very interesting. BUT will this be a shock result? After all these are ALL quality animals and we saw with Main Aim yesterday that the market can get it totally wrong

UPDATE
345 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Blackstairmountain, 3/1 Miss Chaparral, 9/2 Megans Joy, 7/1 Abroad, 8/1 Baracas, 12/1 Azana, Hawk Flight, Shes A Singer, 20/1 Action Master, Timisvar, 25/1 En Solitaire, Kingcove, More Gold, Siciliando, 33/1 Peggy Gilhooley, 50/1 Glasson House, 66/1 Camden Princess, Labasheeda,

3rd and 5th favourites are non runners which means Black and Miss are sharing favouratism at 6/4. Both represent big Galway festival stables - Mullins and Weld
1.23 and 1.27 to place

435 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Poppy Seed, 5/1 Nimue, So Surreal, 11/2 Beyond Desire, 6/1 Damietta, 13/2 Bonheurs Art, 8/1 First Term, 12/1 Mystic Millie, 20/1 Specialising.

DIOMED VERDICT: Market moves for Group-entered Beyond Desire, Nimue or Bonheurs Art would be interesting but perhaps POPPY SEED can make her previous experience count.

Poppy seed is out - BIG move for Beyond desire now a strong 13/8 favourite - nothing else to go on apart from the market - 1.43 to place

615 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Precious Gem, 13/8 Maurice Utrillo, 6/1 Prayer Boat, 8/1 Karma Lina, 10/1 Screen Diva, 14/1 Modern Day Icon, 16/1 Are You The One, Park Ranger,
20/1 Dynamique, 33/1 Buckle Away, 50/1 Likeitorlovette.

Heffernan/O'Brien and Weld/Smullen are the first 2 horses. 1.27 and 1.22 to place - as ever with these top heavy markets - who to chose? Faith that both will place?

and that's it at time of writing (1030am) in a very very difficult day indeed.
FOOTY
A lot of very illiquid markets at present
Games of interest - Man Utd v Boca
Beijing v Hull
Dagenham redbridge v Brum
Celtic v Dinamo Moscow in the Champions League (not in running)
FC Kopenhagen v Staebeck (in running)
Shaktar v FC Timosaura
SHORTLIST UPDATE
200 Galway - looks good now for Tawaagg with 2nd fav a non runner. Ruby Walsh has won twice already on this fav and looks a probability race to me with 4 only under 20/1

325 GOODWOOD - intriguing and very strong head of the market.
RIP - recovered from the slight concern with the hoof? Not won in group 1 company - 1.33
GHANAATI - top bird! Filly to stamp her authority? - 1.4 to place
I am taken by Ghanaati here I think with the proven group 1 winning form in the hope this is a 4 horse race and there are no Main Aim type surprises as can happen in very hgh quality races
ALTERNATIVES
Dutch the top 3 for a 1.14 equivalent bet
LAy someone like Lahaleeb to place (6) in the hope this is a 3 horse race - equivalent of a 1.19 bet - this horse was simply chosen because of price.
2nd lowest to lay to place is 16.5
FOOTBALL
Under 4.5 goals in the Man utd v Boca Juniors match is 1.14 - the hope is this is tight - 0-0 is only 13 on betfair which hints to me that the market expects early tight exchanges- again another ultimately meaningless match, but by far the strongest opposition of United's pre season to date
Laying first goal odds 0-10 at 6 is the same as 1.19 backing and may be enticing if the market is accurate that this is going to be a tight match

ONE A DAY
FAith for me in the Walsh/Mullins combo for the 200 Galway and the hope is that Tawaagg can ake advantage of the absence of nearest market rival as well as the fact he is one of 4 under 20/1 (and we hope it is these 4 who are the ones to focus on)
Of course all depends on not falling/unseating/being pulled up

Many angles in the 325 Goodwood if this does not take your fancy

28/7

Job done yesterday
245 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Harbinger, 4/1 Firebet, Masterofthehorse, 11/2 Urban Poet, 14/1 Swindler, Tactic, 25/1 Big Bound, Montaff, 66/1 Heliodor,

DIOMED VERDICT: HARBINGER needs to step up on his bare form but he may be capable of improving past Masterofthehorse, a good thing on his Derby third but not necessarily on his other form.

Only 4 under 12/1 in the live market- Harbinger 1.47, all of the rest are 1.9 and over to place - ticky race with Harbinger coming back from an injury and an 83 day absence.
1 mile 4 furlongs is not a good distance for me -UPDATE - firebet the slight mover into 7/2

325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Main Aim, 3/1 J J The Jet Plane, 9/2 Ouqba, 9/1 Finjaan, 10/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 Balthazaar´s Gift, 20/1 Regal Parade, 33/1 Express Wish,

DIOMED VERDICT: MAIN AIM is fancied to confirm July Cup superiority over J J The Jet Plane and swell the Stoute coffers even further.

Only 3 under 12/1 here and Main Aim is currently solid at the head of the market at 5/4
Regal Parade possible mover into 14/1
1.23 to place is Main Aim here in this 9 runner event, 3 places and Ryan Moore is onboard.
UPDATE - Main Aim is now 11/10 and hardening at the head of the betting
On the last 2 occasions that Main Aim has been favourite he has won which augurs well. The occasions he was not favourite he placed 4th and 2nd
The 4th and 2nd places came in class 1 group 1 races - he is eased slightly to class 1 group 2 today

400 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Monsieur Chevalier, 5/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 8/1 Mister Manannan, 10/1 Reignier, 16/1 Archers Road, Bould Mover, Totally Invincible, 25/1 Mdawee, Soccer, 33/1 Here Now And Why, Star Rover.

DIOMED VERDICT: The sharper track may not be ideal but MONSIEUR CHEVALIER can get the job done again.

Price gap in the live market 8/11 - - - - - - 10/1 is very eyecatching. I missed backing him last time out for the win/place
Richard Hughes maintains the ride 1.26 to place Monsieur. 5 furlong events can be tricky betting mediums and there is a concern that this horse cannot keep winning ( I suppose that has already been the case with his 5th place 2 races ago)
If we were going purely by price gaps then this is the one.
UPDATE -Price gap remains - 4 over 33/1 should reduce the competitive field

UPDATE
455 Beverley
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Honimiere, 7/2 Sanctuary, 4/1 Amazing Blue Sky, 6/1 Union Island, 10/1 Gaily Noble, 16/1 Cornish Castle, 20/1 Toby Tyler, 25/1 Maybeme.

DIOMED VERDICT: A 6lb penalty may not be enough to stop HONIMIERE (nap), who is still unexposed at this sort of distance, from following up last week's C&D success.

2 late non runners reduce this field to 6 and 3 places still - tight market though with 14/1 the price of the perceived outsider. 1.28 for Honimiere not to get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race.

UPDATE
735 Galway
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Brushed Aside, 11/4 Devoted To You, 7/1 Akdarena, 8/1 Dazzling Day, 12/1 Christmas Light, Sammuramat, 16/1 Louisa Leyton, Tinas Exhibition, 20/1 Loughderg Princess, One For Joules, 25/1 Hepburn, Red Island Lass, Rio Branston, 33/1 Lisagore Lady, New Grey, 50/1 She´s A Staker,

hor

Only 4 horses here are under 20/1 at time of writing
Brushed aside represents a stable who have won this race the last 3 times .
illiquid markets at the moment

840 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Qassaar, 5/1 Morethanafeeling, 6/1 Cilium, My Blue Heaven, 8/1 The Black Russian, 20/1 Zeruth, 25/1 Aisteoir, 33/1 Montana Mist, Northern Champ.

Price gapper here and no analysis on the betting site, nor any early prices so I am going by the price gap and the fact this is Weld/Smullen
I have bought a paper copy of the Racing Post, which tells us Qassaar has not run this season which is a concern and in his sole 4th placed run, he did beat 3 Aiden O'brien horses who have all won since. Is this enough to back a 274 day absentee.
UPDATE - Cilium is quite a significant non runner resulting in Qassaar now hardening to 2/5 in a race where only 4 are under 25/1.
Of course it would be silly of me to comment on the strength of this bet given I am writing some 7 hours before the race is due off. Better to decide nearer the off incase, for instance, there is another significant non runner, or indeed, the jockey gets injured

FOOTBALL
7pm - Rangers are away to Wiedenbruck and are 1.2 to win in another friendly. Pre season 2nd match-they won their previous match 2-0. This game comes before the ultimately meaningless Emirates Cup and Walter Smith may field a strong side?
Rangers' opponents are in the Verbandsliga Westfalen which is "the second highest football league in the region of Westfalen which is part of the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen. It operates in two separate groups which run parallel below the Oberliga Nordrhein-Westfalen. Currently the sixth tier of the German football league system, the Westfalenligen were the fifth tier until the 3rd Liga was introduced in 2008."

Should be an easy win shouldn't it?

Burnley are 1.4 to beat Accrington Stanley at their ground UPDATE - here's an interesting stat on this traditional friendly from the Accrington Stanley website
"It has become a regular pre-season fixture in recent years, with Burnley bringing their first team squad as both sides prepare for the coming season. It hasn't however been one that we have fared well in though, having lost four and drawn three in our last seven recent encounters."

This leads me to laying Accrington at currently available 7.4? Surely we should get a good run for our money as Burnley bring their first team squad.
Stanley are a league 2 side
This is looking like a potential one a day for me

Juventus are 1.33 to beat Seongnam Ilhwa in the "Peace Cup" ,another pointless pre season exercise

Real MAdrid have been complacent and awful (yes they have not been playing their strongest side) and I can't have them against LDU this evening, although they have been scoring first (and mostly in the 2nd half) so that's a good trading option

SHORTLIST UPDATE

We face the conundrum with these high profile meetings that the races will prove always to be highly competitive , resulting un underperforming " sure things"
This is the problem and this has been proven generally this flat season already.
325 GOODWOOD - well Main Aim really is the talking horse here today and Ouqba could be the fly in the ointment for me after that one's last race really stood in the mind. Is main aim really 11/10 to Ouqba's 5/1 difference in quality?
If so then the place looks assured under the ideflat jockey for the job.

400 GOODWOOD - I missed Monsieur last time out when he won in a 20 runner field under the same jockey. All of the trainers in this race fear Monsieur and see him as THE one to beat.
4 of the 11 runners are 33/1 or bigger today which should reduce the competitive field somewhat.
What concerns me is that horses with winning run usually end them spectacularly eventually. The price gap, however , does not tell me that today is likely to be that day.
As you can probably guess, it is ONLY the huge price gap in the live market that sustains my interest in this one.

455 BEVERLEY
Honimiere was the original favourite and is now still fav in this 50/50 race - will 3 horses from 6 beat him ( default selection really as fav!)
NEGATIVE - middle distance handicap - hint at competitive nature of race given 12/1 outsider

Rangers are 1.2 against Wiedenbruck today -the concern here is the market on betfair is ridiculously illiquid. eg Only £4 AVAILABLE to back Rangers at 1.19 presently.

Now I have fished out some stats re the regular accrington Stanley v Burnley friendly, it would seem that 1) Burnley field their first team squad and 2) by their own admission, Accrington either draw or lose - hence a possible lay of Accrington?Equivalent of a 1.14 back bet at current 7.4 odds (again this is a terribly illiquid market meaning we are not getting anywhere near competitive prices and really have to take what's on offer - hopefully this will change nearer the off time)
Interestingly the half time/full time dutch of
-Burnley/Burnley
-Draw/Burnley
-Draw/Draw
pays out 1.30 currently which presumes Accrington do not win the first half ( the lay of accrington outright presupposes that they can win the first half as long as they do not win the 90 minute game)

ONE A DAY
The Goodwood horses are very tempting indeed today but in the back of my mind is the possible carnage dealt out to favourite backers at previous high quality meetings.
For this reason, I am taken by the Accrington Stanley game, aware that if I keep backing in friendlies I will eventually come unstuck. Safe (if the liquidity is available) to lay Accrington in the match odds market and hope today is not the day for them to end their losing and drawing sequence against Burnley
Good luck with your selections. I'm going half time/full time dutch and hope for the best.

27/7 update

615 UTTOXETER
Rhinestone Ruby has taken on the mantle of clear favouratism at time of writing at 7/4
1.22 to place
As I wrote previously this is one of those gamble races with 4 running for 3 places - so we have to make a distinction by jockey perhaps, last race , market movement?

The race is too tight for me to make a firm decision but I think Choc Thornton is a great jockey, the horse is clear fav and 1.22 is reasonable enough

27/7

Job done yesterday as Man Utd really had to battle for their, erm, 8-2 win. Barca won and Liverpool proved me wrong with an easy win.
The horse came in too so plenty of choice and plenty of success.
I will be in Ireland next week and hope to resurrect Live chat again (time permitting with lots of writing to do) -there will be none this week as this is my last week in Guernsey and I've got important things like beer and golf to do.

215 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Yeadon, 3/1 Belinsky, 5/1 Hairs Vital, 8/1 Russian Davis, 14/1 Star Promise, 20/1 Wedding Dream, 50/1 Miss Roma, Tulip Explosion, 66/1 Baby Judge, Mrs Jones And Me.

DIOMED VERDICT: YEADON has shown more than enough to suggest he can pick up a race like this.

6 under 50/1 in the betting forecast. In the live market, only 2 under 10/1, and only 5 under 25/1
Another maiden alas but Yeadon has come 2nd and 3rd so has that all important experience
1.13 to place - extreme confidence behind this one to place. No market movers as yet - of course it's always risky backing 2 year olds but from a glass half full perspective, Yeadon has come 3rd in a 16 runner race and 2nd in a 7 runner race (latterly under today's jockey)
Only 3 are under 14/1 and the hope is these 3 youngsters can dominate
I don't like 5 furlong events too much and even less so when 2 year olds are involved. Another possible negative? Fav's debut on all weather.

615 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rhinestone Ruby, 5/2 Souixsanna Vic, 3/1 Ragdollianna, 9/2 Moulin De La Croix, 33/1 Sultana, 100/1 Basford Wayfarer, Meleeha, Tofta Tilly, Tot Hill.

DIOMED VERDICT: RHINESTONE RUBY was too good for Ragdollianna at Worcester and has scope for improvement

Only 4 under 33/1 are the ones to concentrate on in this 3 the place 8 runner race
Intriguing race. Now down to 7 runners, but as ever, Betfair remains at 3 places which is a great advantage for us place only backers.
4 horses are under 40/1 only, and it should be these who fight out for the 3 places (of course we are assuming no falls/unseats/pulled ups amongst the top 4)

The front 3 simply cannont be split, priced as they are 2/1 or 9/4 with Moulin de la Croix available as the spoiler at 5/1

It may come to the point that none of these 4 can be discounted so this becomes a simple probability gamble - 4 horses /3 places
In betting forecast order prices are 1.21 , 1.31 , 1.22 , 1.72.
3 of the jockeys on the top 4 are Choc Thornton. AP McCoy and Paddy Brennan - formidable jockeys all.
This is a race I think which needs reconsidering nearer to race time as the market will then begin to show us the more favoured horses and perhaps allow us to take an opinion on one of the 4 main protagonists.
This could be another good lay the place race on one of the outsiders . Their lay prices are currently 7.5 and 10.5 but the market is very illiquid


620 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Stunning View, 5/2 Banyan Tree, 9/2 Zayaan, 6/1 Maverick Man, 20/1 Luddenmore, 50/1 The Bay Bandit, Tramps Like Us, 66/1 Arakan Trail.

4 under 20/1 and a Weld/Smullen odds on favourite - Galway Festival today -is going to be some craic! 1.1 the fav at present for Weld/Smullen to place seems a little low but I suppose accounts for the 3 horses 50/1 or bigger and the sole 20/1 horse

815 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Block Party, 5/2 Sabi Star, 9/2 Altimatum, 8/1 Secret Desert, 14/1 Rinky Dink Lady, 16/1 Highland Lassie, Kimberley Rocks, 33/1 Miskin Flyer, 40/1 Countrystyle Lass, 50/1 Douchkette, Grand Pere, 66/1 Annan Rock.

DIOMED VERDICT: Sabi Star is respected but BLOCK PARTY, who is rated slightly higher on BHA figures and Racing Post Ratings, gets the verdict.

Only 3 under 16/1 in yet another maiden 1.12 and 1.31 the front 2.Altimatum is a significant non runner as provisional 3rd fav - this increases the price gap between the front 2 and the rest of the field.

FOOTBALL
Haladas v Arsenal. Arsenal are 1.22 to win. Haladas are an Hungarian side 9th in their league. The did draw 0-0 recently against Elfsborg who won 3-1 recently so perhaps a hint of bus parking when at home against big boys
Looks a provisionally strong Arsenal line up - mostly youngsters but the game is NOT in running which is a slight negative


England under 19 are 1.45 to beat Slovenia under 19.

SHORTLIST
All of those above can really be shortlisted

Of the football bets, the Arsenal look reasonable at 1/5 to get a victory (1.24 betfair) again Hungarian Haladas. again we must bet in the knowledge this is a friendly and wholesale changes are likely in the 2nd half. The squad is strong. The youngsters are strong and, although not in running, the hope is they will prevail. 0-0 cover at 29 costs 3.80 and this may be my play in this match as I cannot see Haladas winning much less score drawing ( famous last words)



Of the horses, 215 Southwell - timeform sees Yeadon as "very hard to beat",
POSITIVES - 3rd and 2nd - the 2nd -the horse was clear of the remainder - always a good sign
Only 3 under 16/1 here too - hint of dead wood?
NEGATIVES - a 2 year old who has only had 2 runs and is obviously still inexperienced. All weather debutant today and over 5 furlongs - not the ideal recipe for success.

Evening races need closer inspection half an hour before the off.

ONE A DAY
I will chance Arsenal today at the tastier 1.23 to win - yes friendlies are terrible betting mediums but is worth the risk when compared against a 1.11 2 year old 5 furlong maiden debutant on the all weather ( who should place with ease I think)
All about the price today
THe evening races look very appealing from a probability race so if you don't like maidens and friendlies, I'll try to update 545pm before the first race at 615

26/7

Well FC Copenhagen went a goal down and were available at an amazing 1.56 for enhanced bet fans ! They won 7-1 for the one a day so job done.

315 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dontpaytheferryman, 9/2 Castlebury, 5/1 Pitbull, 11/2 Noche De Reyes, 8/1 All In The Red, 9/1 Ming Vase, 25/1 Rainbow Zest, Royal Fantasy, 33/1 Kaiser Willie.

DIOMED VERDICT: DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN can make a successful debut for his new yard.

Hint of a price gap in this class 5 handicap. Some 6 horses only under 20/1 1.48 to place tells you this is a tricky race. As with Formula yesterday which involved 4 horses under 20/1 , 3 of those 4 placed and Formula didn't! This is the potential concern here.

340 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Walk On Bye, 13/8 Alfred Nobel, 8/1 In Some Respect, King Ledley, 10/1 Beethoven, 25/1 Air Chief Marshal, 33/1 Rock Jock, 66/1 Reggae Dancer.

Aiden O BRien horses abound here. 2 standout horses are the only ones under 10/1 in the live market. - 1.21 and 1.25 the front 2 here to place and this is the standout price in the place market with all other placed horses comfortably over evens.
my concern with this race is the 3 big priced O'Brien horses ( a similarly profiled race recently saw an Aiden O'Brien outsider a NECK 2nd at 20/1!!)
The market expects Alfred Nobel to be THE O'BRien horse here as default selection for Johnny Murtagh.
3 places and soft /heavy ground

400 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sopranist, 2/1 Shamali, 7/2 Proponent, 7/1 The Cayterers, 10/1 Just Lille.

DIOMED VERDICT: SOPRANIST is the form pick on his latest good run and may be too strong for progressive C&D winner Shamali.

Fav an important non runner should help Shamali?1.29 seems very generous for Shamali considering originally the horse was 2/1 (8/4) to Sopranist's 7/4 - ie very tight indeed.

445 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Visite Royale, 6/1 Starla Dancer, 8/1 Highway Code, 14/1 Lady Bluesky, 16/1 Born To Perform, 20/1 Merchant Man, 25/1 First Bay, Nakoma, 33/1 There We Go, 66/1 Dancing Primo, 100/1 Anacot Steel, Diamond Jo, Ducal Regancy Duke, Sally O´Riley.

DIOMED VERDICT: VISITE ROYALE is hard to get away from in an uncompetitive maiden.

Bigges tprice gapper of the day in this big field maiden -has had plenty of runs = experience
1.12 to place.
Really the default selection today given the huge price gap and "hard to get away from" status.

510 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Black Eyed Susan, 2/1 Sagacious, 3/1 Sense Of Purpose, 9/2 Alsalwa, 14/1 Runaway Rose, 16/1 Irish Reel, 20/1 Strandhill, 66/1 Itamaria.

8 runners, only 4 under 33/1 and these 4 represent the big boys in Irish trainer/jockey combinations. The front 2 are debutants which tells you the power and reputations of the stables.
A race to consult nearer the off as the market is going to be very important indeed. We do have the potential that this is a 4 horse race for 3 places
LIVE MARKET IS A MUST JUST BEFORE THE OFF AS THIS IS A RACE LARGELY OF UNKNOWNS

FOOTBALL
Singapore v Liverpool
The scousers are 1/6 to win. Singapore were quite impressive against MAN uTD scoring 2 against them so I can't really have Liverpool at 1/6
Man Utd are 1/10 to beat Hangzhou and although they have won all of their matches on this tour, ALL matches have required late goal victories or coming from behind
Barca are 1/7 to beat Al Alhy and this is the game that is v interesting given Celtic spanked the Egyptians.
Likely to be a mixed team of newcomers and experienced, Barca should dispatch this lot even if it is a largely meaningless game

19:30

Sevilla vs Seongnam

1/5

21:30

Real Madrid vs Al Ittihad

1/10

Same price against Shamrock Rovers and that required a very late winner.

SHORTLIST
the 445 Carlisle and 510 Curragh are the 2 I would take out of today with the latter necessitating a look in the market to guage which of the 4 likely contenders is favoured given there is little else to really go on.
Of the footy sides, well it's difficult today as all are friendlies meaning wholesale changes at half time and experimental sides and formations.
Of the teams shortlisted then Man Utd for me would be the choice - the odds dictate a victory and they have scored 2 or more in all games ( trading option)
Al Alhy were crap against Celtic who trounced them 5-0 I think. Barca will be nowhere near the Barca we will see through the league campaign but they should register a goal at least (trading again)
Real Madrid should see off their counterparts as should Sevilla with any semblance of a reasonable side out.
I would love to see Huntelaar upfront for Real - he should have scored 2 or 3 against Shamrock and was quality

ONE A DAY
For the gee gees 445 Carlisle Visite Royale is ultra short priced fav in a race where only 3 are under 16/1 and at 1.13 is reasonabel enough. FOrm of 4-2-4-2 is a little up and down but is contesting another class 5 event here.

Tom Eaves onboard - would prefer Ryan Moore of course.

MAn Utd at 1.11 should have little trouble in garnering a victory today in yet another friendly albeit at very poor odds.
For those wanting to bump up the odds 1.17 for BArca looks reasonable enough although we shouldn't expect the big big names to be playing.

25/7 UPDATE

Danetime panther placed, albeit at 1.08 after the defection of Persian Warrior. What a pity!

A good number of the shortlisters did the business yesterday and Man Utd won 3-2 (another enhanced bet as they were 1-0 down and 2-1 down at half time!) for early starters.

300 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 So Bazaar, 11/4 Bahamian Music, 4/1 Caracal, Hoss Cartwright, 14/1 No Quarter, Sunnandaeg, 33/1 Kai Broon, Lighterman, 66/1 Eeny Mac, Young Firth.

DIOMED VERDICT: CARACAL is better than he showed on debut and can get off the mark here Only 5 under 20/1 in the live betting, but is a maiden where not many have experience-1.32 the fav to place - front 4 in the market have all only had the one run 310 YORK BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kirklees, 9/2 Curtain Call, Tazeez, 13/2 Monitor Closely, 8/1 Allied Powers, 14/1 Kings Gambit, 16/1 Halicarnassus, Smokey Oakey, 50/1 Macorville. DIOMED VERDICT: Kirklees looked good in a recent Listed win but has better opposition to deal with here in the shape of TAZEEZ and the mudlark Curtain Call Again 5 under 20/1 in this class 2 listed race 1.33 to place Kirklees and at 1115am, strongly supported from 2/1 down to 13/8 -Frankie for Godolphin on this one. Do note the fact this is a high quality field and consequently all horses are of a good quality 335 NEWCASTLE BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Aquarian Spirit, 3/1 Rigid, 5/1 Turf Trivia, 7/1 Master Leon, 8/1 Cosmic Orbit, 14/1 Thescottishsoldier, 16/1 Irish Eyes, 20/1 Beat The Rush, 33/1 Dinkys Diamond, 50/1 Somewhere Else. DIOMED VERDICT: AQUARIAN SPIRIT has twice run well at Catterick and can make it third time lucky. Again only 5 under 25/1 and a 6/5 favourite who, as a maiden, has had 2 promising runs - yet another maiden which is typical of today. The front 2 in the market have each had 2 runs which is good I suppose 4 debutants and 2 one time outers open to improvement. Hopefully we can discount all horses over 25/1 and can have faith that the 6/5 fav will run as consistently as he has on his last 2 3rd places 1.25 to place augurs well for this fav 415 YORK BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Loveinthesand, 5/2 L´Enchanteresse, 4/1 Key Art, 8/1 Coronaria, Rodrigo De Torres, 16/1 Distinctive, 20/1 William Morgan, 33/1 Emerald Glade, Woodface, 66/1 Dead Womans Pass. DIOMED VERDICT: LOVEINTHESAND should have learnt plenty from his debut and is just preferred to fellow Group 1 entry L'Enchanteresse You know the drill - Johnston juvenile well backed = must be considered (Love in the sand) 8 runner race now - the non runners are big prices which does not affect the race from a probability perspective. It is far too early to guage any support for/ against the Johnston horse, suffice to say his price is around 2/1, 5/2, 9/4 with the bookies on the betting site - clear 2nd fav in a race where only 5 are under 20/1 YEt again this is a maiden race with 4 debutants and the 2 market leaders have only had the one run. 1.49 anad 1.4 the front 2 to place at this stage 425 ASCOT - Laying Scintillo to place at 10.5 is the equivalent, give or take, of a 1.10 bet. 50/1 in the betting forecast, this is a race dominated by the Stoute runners and surely we can get 3 to beat this one? 450 YORK BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hawk Mountain, 100/30 Nemo Spirit, 8/1 Herrera, 10/1 Inchnadamph, Luna Landing, 12/1 Kiribati King, Mudawin, Zuwaar, 14/1 Grand Art, 16/1 Red Fama, 50/1 Dreams Jewel. DIOMED VERDICT: NEMO SPIRIT (nap) can confirm last month's superiority over Hawk Mountain. 2 horse race here? 1.75 anad 1.8 to place 510 NEwMARKET BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Kaolak, 7/2 Intikama, 11/2 Welsh Anthem, 7/1 Dark Ranger, Point Of Light, 8/1 Mile High Lad, 10/1 Transformer, 16/1 Mac Wolf. DIOMED VERDICT: Intikama and KAOLAK ran well last time out and shaped as if this longer trip would be in their favour. Now a 6 runner race anad 3 races but a really poor race - class 5 apprentice handicap. The big mover is Point of light inserted now as 2/1 provisional favourite in a market which is likely to ebb and flow throughout the day. A 50/50 race this one - 6 runners and 3 places , the market is too illiquid to recount the prices at this stage 720 LING BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Formula, 5/2 Learo Dochais, 3/1 Safari Guide, 5/1 Golden Button, 20/1 Fondant Fancy, Tiger Breeze, 25/1 Prince Maggio, 33/1 Stylish Mover, 66/1 Fitz, Spring Bridge, 100/1 Any Secrets. DIOMED VERDICT: FORMULA looks the best of a modest bunch with his yard flying high right now. Only 4 under 20/1 here although Fondant Fancy is showing at 16/1 in places at this early stage (bear in mind there's some 8 hours til off time. As is the case today, we are left to mull over yet another maiden race with one debutant and 3 one time outers. This is a class 6 race and the fav Formula has placed form in class 5 and class 4 races - Richard Hughes has partnered him most but Pat Dobbs takes the ride today . Now if we can assume that those 16/1 or bigger run as their prices suggest, then this drop in class should see Formula run into a place in what could be described as a 4 horse race. In a poor day, a race that is interesting as a potential probability race. FOOTY 14:00 FC Copenhagen vs Koge 1/8 Start of the new season it would seem and Koge have lost their last 9 games 3-0 and drawn 1-1 Seems a bit strange and maybe the website is wrong? What interests me here is the 22/1 quoted for the away side. Ladbrokes think they haven't got a prayer and this really is a huge price when we compare with some of the 1/5 shots today, whose opponents are 8/1 or 9/1 to win. So although this is a risky bet as this is the beginning of the season, this 22/1 dismissal of Koge's chances makes FC Copenhagen at 1.17 on Betfair enticing in a day littered with competitive high class stuff and maiden races which are not the best betting mediums. What makes this game even more enticing is the fact it is in running, so positions can be managed The match is also viewable at ladbrokes and may be viewable on betfair so you can place your bet, guage the game and stay with the bet or trade out if you are not convinced. THere are a number of likely candidates from the Ukrainian and Croatian leagues but it's their first matches of the season. Of interest are Dynmo Zagreb at 1/6, Shaktar away from home at 1/5 SHORTLIST A wealth of maidens today across all venues make life very difficult. Shorties have had the one or 2 runs and face debutants in some cases, and inexperienced and thus open to improvement?) opponents in big fields in other cases. The football games are difficult to guage as they are, in most cases, the first games of a new season. 335 NEWCASTLE - Aquarian Spirit is of some interest given the fact the horse has had 2 placed runs in his maidens so far. Only 5 horses under 25/1 and the horse is fancied at 1.25 to place. Hopefully this will be a 5 runner race and the outsiders will run as outsiders 415 YORK - too early to say yes or no regarding the Johnston runner 425 ASCOT - not my usual bet but laying Scintillo to place at 11.5 is the same as a 1.09 bet 720 LINGFIELD - Formula could have a good chance in a race which will need looking at a bit nearer the 720 kick off FC Copenhagen are 1/8 , their opponents are 22/1 with Ladbrokes - take the hint? ONE A DAY I'll update at 1pm ,hopefully there will be a few non runners that can create a good opportunity I am going to chance FC Copenhagen today at 1.17 to win (2pm I think) My other strong bets? Lay Scintillo in the 425 Ascot and 720 Lingfield -a look at Formula's race nearer the off. Good luck with your choices The FC Copenhagen for me is only a bet if in running and thus tradeable in what is a slightly risky 1st match of the Danish season

24/7

Those of a more adventurous nature yesterday could have opted for Grenoli, as hinted at, instead of Cooksgrove lady, and over 2.5 goals in the Polonia Warsaw match instead of 1.06 win. Yes, another 1/50 side wins by 3+ goals (in this case 4-0)

230 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Marie De Medici, 7/2 Knockenduff, 6/1 Admire The View, 8/1 Seven Of Diamonds, Timeless Elegance, 10/1 Captain´s Paradise, 20/1 Blue Avon, 25/1 Buzz Bird, Dazakhee, Mad Millie, 33/1 Emeralds Spirit, Hedgerow.

DIOMED VERDICT: MARIE DE MEDICI (nap), well drawn for one that races up with the pace, looks sure to go well in this company.

Johnston maiden horse now odds on and a price gapper in the live market. It's always good to see well supported Johnston juveniles at the northern tracks -1.15 to place and strongly fancied in the place market

250 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Valerius, 7/2 Marufo, 7/1 Winsley Hill, 12/1 Stormy Bay.

DIOMED VERDICT: VALERIUS looks a cut above the other trio.

If he is a "cut above" like 9 length winner Cooksgrove lady, then he must be considered. One outsider should make this a 3 horse race fighting for 2 places? 1.17 to place Valerius

350 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Strawberrydaiquiri, 6/1 Lady Francesca, Rosaleen, 7/1 Perfect Star, 12/1 Greenisland, 14/1 Balaagha, 20/1 First City, 50/1 Folly Lodge, Nice To Know, Trumpet Lily,

DIOMED VERDICT: There is probably more to come from STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI (nap) and she is confidently expected to defy her penalty.

Price gapper here in a listed race - "looks group class" and has the right man on board for sure, but remember this is a listed race so all horses are very good quality 1.13 to place

400 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Baguenaud, 4/1 High Standard, 9/2 Massams Lane, 6/1 Iron Hague, 14/1 Kingscourt Lad, 25/1 Freda´s Rose, Insignia, Tarboush, 33/1 Waterdale, 50/1 Carpe Momentum, Play A Cord, 66/1 Fan Club, Princess Arwen.

DIOMED VERDICT: BAGUENAUD is good enough to take this if somewhere near his best.

5 horses under 25/1 should be the ones to concentrate on. The fav is well supported, has a 7 lb claiming jockey onboard but this is a selling hurdle 1.3 to place

435 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Danetime Panther, 6/4 Persian Warrior, 5/1 Ovthenight, 10/1 Eddie Dowling, 40/1 Climaxtackledotcom, 50/1 Handsome Chap, 66/1 Jellytot, Laybach.

DIOMED VERDICT: DANETIME PANTHER can improve enough to beat Persian Warrior.

Only 4 under 66/1 and 3 places so a great race for consideration , perhaps Eddie Dowling can be ignored?

Choc Thornton is on Danetime panther 1.14 and 1.21 the front 2 to place

510 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dirar, 4/1 Bathwick Man, 10/1 Priest Field, 12/1 Hello Nod, Peaceful Means, 16/1 Newgate, 20/1 Lord Baskerville, Pepporoni Pete, 33/1 Lindseyfield Lodge, 40/1 Pelennor, 66/1 Hot Zone.

DIOMED VERDICT: DIRAR is the obvious choice after yesterday's very easy success

2nd fav out and Dirar ran yesterday and won.
7 lb claimer again onboard -last 2 wins have come under Seamus Durack.
Remember Priest Field you live chatters - 20/1 winner for me recently on live chat. 1.17 to place

710 NMKT

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Colonel Mak, 100/30 Hairspray, 7/1 Blue Angel, Footstepsofspring, 16/1 Dubawi Heights, 33/1 Maldon Prom, 50/1 Premium Charge, 200/1 Gessabelle.

DIOMED VERDICT: COLONEL MAK (nap) looked better than a nursery type at Hamilton and can follow up at the main expense of Hairspray.

8 down to 7 runners and still 3 places? 2 outsiders can hopefully be discounted 1.1 to place and 3 places

730 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 High Heeled, 3/1 Ave, 5/1 Short Affair, 11/2 Sweet Lilly, 8/1 Moon Sister, 16/1 Medici Pearl, 33/1 Young Americans, 100/1 Clare Glen.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHORT AFFAIR might only have won a handicap last time but did it very stylishly and could well be up to disposing of High Heeled and Ave.

4 runners under 20/1 here in this listed race 1.16 to place

800 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fairmile, 3/1 Invasian, 7/1 Birkside, Demolition, 8/1 Lost Soldier Three, 9/1 Realism, 20/1 Eseej, 33/1 Longspur, 50/1 John Forbes.

DIOMED VERDICT: FAIRMILE is a cut above this grade and looks the one to beat.

Only 2 under 10/1 here the ones to concentrate on? 1.21 and 1.41 the front 2 to place

FOOTBALL
FC Soeul v Man Utd - 1/5 for United here looks very enticing - they are 2 from 2 so far on their travels
Laying Soeul is the same as 1.10 shot

SHORTLIST
Again it's only 11am so I will update at around 1pm in the hope of capturing some races with non runners.
Man Utd's game kicks off at 12pm and they should oblige but do try and find their team news - we want to see a solid team, and trading must be an option especially if United score in the first half because there may be wholesale changes in the 2nd half

UPDATE
435 Southwell looks the best probability race for me today, and Persian Warrior and Danetime Panther look the 2 to concentrate on here in a race where only 4 are under 66/1 Persian Warrior has been a previous place only selection and is the better priced of the front 2 at 1.21. danetime panther is 1.11 at present in a market that is a little illiquid.
I think either of these merit attention and Persian at 1.21 gets my vote. You can chose Danetime if you want a perceived safer bet (shorter place price = safer bet?) and Choc Thornton on board

23/7 UPDATE

Another profitable one a day yesterday. Choumakeur won, Hada Men came 3rd , Liverpool scored 1st and were tradeable at 1.08 (but the latter was not an official bet)

200 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Cooksgrove Lady, 13/2 Grenoli, 12/1 Lambrini Classic, 20/1 Elusive Swallow, King Rocky, 33/1 Checked Shirt, 50/1 Bandeau Charmer, 100/1 Band Of Brothers.

DIOMED VERDICT: COOKSGROVE LADY looks head and shoulders above her rivals.

Good start to the day with a very strong fav in an 8 runner race with 3 places - now 7 runners and 1.05 to place and 1.29 to win.
Again perhaps we could back at 1.29 and lay off at 1.14 (the presumption is the horse is prominent and runs well for a consistent period) - this creates a 1.15 bet
Grenoli is the only horse left under 14/1 and could be a good gamble to place at 1.33 ( a price likely to change given this is 930am)

220 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Dubai Set, 9/2 Primo De Vida, 13/2 Chips O´Toole, 10/1 Kakapuka, Panpiper, 14/1 Avongate, Dark Eyes, West Leake Star, 16/1 Come On Safari, Feeling Fragile, Kapelad Junior, 20/1 Greenore Gordon, 25/1 Candyfloss Girl, 40/1 Knockback, Set In Ice, /1 Trade Fairle,

DIOMED VERDICT: DUBAI SET, who was second to a useful prospect last time, makes the most appeal of those with experience. Primo de Vida is one of the more interesting newcomers.

Dubai set is a price gapper in the live betting market ( although I am writing at 915am and a lot can change in the interim) 1.29 to place
UPDATE - STILL STRONG IN THE MARKET AND V PROGRESSIVE FORM BUT YOU TAKE YOUR CHANCES WITH BIG FIELD MAIDENS ESPECIALLY OVER SPRINT DISTANCES

320 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Gallic Star, 5/1 Crown, Middle Club, 6/1 Bikini Babe, Mudaaraah, 7/1 Mistic Magic, 8/1 Bahati, 12/1 Lady Springbank.

DIOMED VERDICT: GALLIC STAR shaped as if this trip would suit even better when beating a subsequent winner in a 6f Leicester maiden last time and may be good enough to take the step up in grade in her stride.

Fav has shortened in the live betting market but this is a top flight listed race and so all horses are quality. We have seen before how generally these strong favs underperform 1.43 to place
UPDATE - NOW 7/4 AND STRONG AT THE HEAD OF THE MARKET - 2 YEAR OLD LISTED RACE THOUGH

UPDATE
330 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Angel´s Pursuit, 7/4 Stargaze, 9/2 Avonvalley, 9/1 Emma Jean Lass.

DIOMED VERDICT: STARGAZE is improving and is preferred to Angel's Pursuit.

ANGEL'S PURSUIT NOW ODDS ON HERE IN A RACE WHERE THE OUTSIDER IS NOW 14/1 WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY LEAVE 3 FIGHTING FOR 2 PLACES - FAV IS TAKING A MARKED DROP IN CLASS 1.21 TO PLACE

UPDATE
405 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Tatling, 4/1 Godfrey Street, 11/2 Like For Like, 6/1 Compton Classic, 13/2 Diane´s Choice, 10/1 The Name Is Frank, 25/1 Meikle Barfil, 33/1 Nordic Light, Talamahana.

DIOMED VERDICT: Veteran The Tatling sets a good standard and should prove hard to deny.

ONLY 5 UNDER 33/1 HERE SHOULD BE THE ONES TO CONCENTRATE ON AND THE TATLING HOLDS ON TO FAVOURATISM AND IS WARM AT 5/4

.
NEGATIVES - A CLAIMER

630 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cape Blanco, 9/4 Perfect Symmetry, 7/2 Marfach, 9/2 Miracle Match, 7/1 Kingdom Of Munster.

Ballydoyle fav with Murtagh on board is interesting and Ballydoyle also have the outsider.1.52 to place

FOOTBALL

17:00

Polonia Warszaw vs Juvenes/Dogana

1/50

8/1

28/1

surely signifies goals this 1/50?
1.06 to win - could be combined with Cooksgrove lady to place at 1.06 making a combined 1.12 bet?
Over 2.5 goals is 1.29 (but this really is a highly illiquid market and this 1.29 should/could be higher)
1/50 usually means over 2.5 goals should be achieved by the home side alone. 1/12 shots usually bag 3 goals , so 1/50 shots surely shoudl give it a good go

19:00

Galatasaray vs Tobol Kastanay

1/7

Top flight European team against who? 1/7 at home should indicate a simple victory in this Europa league match

SHORTLIST
I had rather pinned my hopes on Cooksgrove lady in the first today to get this nailed early on but had not considered the 1.06 after the non runner.
Now I think , in order to enhance this bet, we can do 2 things - perhaps back Cooksgrove lady to win at 1.29 ,and place a lay bet in running (using keep bets) at 1.14 in the hope this gets triggered in running and creates a return of 1.15
Alternatively we could back Cooksgrove lady to place at current 1.06 and then go to 500pm match and back the 1/50 team at 1.06 to win only . THis creates effectively a 1.12 bet .

Perhaps an update nearer the 2pm kick off to account for hopefully more late non runners. I'm on uncle patrol this afternoon with my brother's 2 young ones so no live chat. Should be back to business hopefully come the weekend,- I want to practice live market reading too because it can be lucrative!

one a day
UPDATE - STICKING WITH MY ORIGINAL ANALYSIS HERE I THINK - COOKSGROVE LADY IN THE 200 UTTOXETER TO PLACE FOLLOWED BY POLONIA WARSAW AT 5PM AT 1.06
ALTERNATIVE. BACK COOKSGROVE LADY AT 1.2 IN THE WIN MARKET AND GET OUT AT 1.07 IN RUNNING

22/7

Another in the bag yesterday
Again I am unable to do live chat today as we have a family lunch thing before my sister returns to Oz
210 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Arctic Shadow, 3/1 Choumakeur, 14/1 Old Brigade, Orchard King, Rifleman, Rosses Point, 20/1 Canndar, Dawn At Sea, Getinbybutonlyjust, Mysaynoway, 33/1 Goodnight Tom, Langkawi Beach, Thethirdoftheforth, 50/1 Monzon.

DIOMED VERDICT: ARCTIC SHADOW and Choumakeur are both well handicapped.

Arctic Shadow is out after yesterday's win which must surely leave this race at Choumakeur's mercy granted the obligatory clear round of course

230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Azizi, 4/1 Glass Of Red, 6/1 Naseby, 10/1 Christopher Wren, 20/1 Execution, 25/1 Bush Master, Man In The Mirror, Weliketobouggie, 66/1 Downtoobusiness, 100/1 New York Lights.

DIOMED VERDICT: AZIZI shaped with real promise on debut and can get off the mark at the second attempt.

Now 2/5 in places this fav - again another who has only had the one run but backed as if he is Pegasus!

240 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Night Cru, 7/2 Civil Servant, Dead Or Alive, 9/1 Mr Robert, 16/1 Passato, 20/1 Grenoli, 33/1 The Dark Horse, 50/1 Lupita, 66/1 Always Certain, 100/1 Cottonwood Falls.

DIOMED VERDICT: NIGHT CRU is not the easiest to win with but he has a touch of class and comes here in good form.

Only 5 under 40/1 - one of which is a McCoy shortie

340 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Beehawk, 5/1 Rich Nomad, 7/1 Misty Isle, 8/1 Bathwick Lucy, 9/1 Ballyfin, Well Mick, 10/1 Cold Harbour, 16/1 Leneygaff, 25/1 Farington Lodge, Ravenscar, Return Home, 33/1 Dasher Reilly, 40/1 Iloveturtle, The Walnut Tree.

DIOMED VERDICT: BEEHAWK was just denied over C&D last week and can go one better.

Price gapper here

450 CATT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Obe Gold, 9/4 Rasaman, 11/2 Lucky Art, 16/1 Princess Charlmane, Strensall, 20/1 Handsinthemist, 25/1 Angelofthenorth, Mandelieu, 33/1 Glencairn Star, Yahwudhee, 66/1 Fire Up The Band.

DIOMED VERDICT: OBE GOLD is more reliable than chief form rival Rasaman and gets the vote. Only 3 under 20/1 albeit in a claimer 755 LEIC BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Hada Men, 9/2 It´s A Date, Summer Lodge, 5/1 Rotative, 10/1 Distinctive Image, 16/1 Illicit, 20/1 Sotelo, 33/1 Zaif. DIOMED VERDICT: HADA MEN (nap) is probably open to further improvement and may well be able to follow up his Folkestone reappearance win. 5 in an original 8 runenr race remain -and hada man remains fav so must be worth close consideration - 1.12 to place FOOTY 200 - Thailand v Liverpool 1/5 ONE A DAY Running a bit late so straight to one a day. 210 WORC - is an amatur riders handicap hurdle but the very significant non runner Aarctic Shadow surely opens this up for Choumakeur despite the dodgy race type. Twiston Davies in the saddle comes from good racing stock If you don't like amatuer riders then 755 Leicester Hada Men is 1.12 to beat 2 to place, one of which is a 16/1 shot. Deserves closer inspection nearer the off but looks an outstanding probability bet Again no live chat I'm afraid today. Good luck

LIVECHAT

No livechat this afternoon- golf this afternoon is getting in the way of the racing!
Good luck

21/9

Enhanced bet anyone? I've been harping on about it for ages so hope at least one person backed Real Madrid at evens or higher? I backed them at 1.12 before the game admittedly, but topped up at 2.02 - some lucky feckers got 5.00 for a 1/12 side.
Let's face it - they couldn't not win against Shamrock Rovers!
All other mentions did the job yesterday
315 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Alicante, 13/2 Cape Marien, 7/1 Halfway House, Venture Capitalist, 10/1 Windpfeil, 11/1 Screaming Brave, 12/1 Hi Fling, 14/1 Khayar, Riptide, Twist Again, 20/1 Freedom Fire, 25/1 Any Given Moment, 33/1 Cooper Island Kid, Very Distinguished, 40/1 Mymateeric,

DIOMED VERDICT: ALICANTE can defy her penalty after improving considerably for midde distances but unexposed Cape Marien is just one of several to be wary of.

Only 3 under 12/1 here and a short priced fav at 6/4 - 1.31
NEGATIVES - biggish field and a handicap race
POSITIVES - nearly a class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper , 4 places


415 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Squander, 3/1 Luc Jordan, 5/1 Kessraa, 6/1 Granny McPhee, 7/1 Eyes Like A Hawk, 20/1 Bobble Rock, 25/1 Betony, Haling Park, Laafet, So Glamorous, 66/1 Mumtaz Begum, Prince De Fortune.

DIOMED VERDICT: SQUANDER won't have to live up to her pedigree to make a winning debut, with Luc Jordan, back down in trip, perhaps the biggest threat.

Only 5 under 25/1 should be the ones to focus on here - of the top 5, Squander is a debutant in this maiden,the remaining 4 have had plenty of runs but i is difficult to distinguish a stand out horse amongst those remaining 4 . 1.79 , 1.67 , 1.89 , 3.05 , 1.93 for these 5 horses tells you how difficult this is

515 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Silver Prelude, 4/1 Taboor, 5/1 Lithaam, 7/1 Chantilly Jewel, 12/1 Town House, 14/1 Mansii, Rough Rock, Wreningham, 20/1 Gone´N´Dunnett, 33/1 Wivny.

DIOMED VERDICT: SILVER PRELUDE (nap) can confirm the form over those he vanquished last week if the tongue tie is as effective again.

Price gapper in a 0-60 class 6 handicap - now 10/11 in places and hardening at the head of the market - we know about the general consistency in placing amongst these price gappers in these lowly maidens - 1.23 to place

630 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Arctic Shadow, 13/2 Michaels Dream, 8/1 Keoghs Tradbar, Thehonourablelady, 10/1 Star Lady, 12/1 Solway Star, 14/1 All Roads Lead, Brize Norton, Patrixbourne, 16/1 Avoine, Go Free, 20/1 Miss Merenda, Nayodabayo, 25/1 Colditz, Miss Muscat, 33/1 Farington Lodge, 40/1 Silver Dagger.

DIOMED VERDICT: Providing he shows no ill-effects for a third outing within six days, ARCTIC SHADOW could well complete a quick hat-trick with his hurdles mark looking very lenient.

Note Diomed's comments here about quick succession of races but live market shows evens - - - - - 7/1 price gapper 1.27 to place

700 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Font, 5/4 Rodrigo Gonzales, 14/1 Pipers Legend, 20/1 Bideford Legend, It´s A Roofer.

DIOMED VERDICT: Rodrigo Gonzales has to be feared but FONT, who has been in action much more recently, gets the narrow verdict. His rider's useful claim will do no harm under a penalty.

BArring a fall/unseat rider/pulled up, then surely this will be fought out between the first 2. As ever these can be tricky for place only betting because there is always a chance that one of the outsiders places at the expense of one of the favs 1.18 the front 2 to place

730 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Vacario, 7/4 Duty Free, 8/1 Tarvini, World Time, 14/1 Ballabrook, 16/1 Miss Mactango, 25/1 Raisthorpe, Sir Billy Nick, 33/1 Basford Wayfarer, Tenormore.

DIOMED VERDICT: DUTY FREE was runner-up to the progressive Cootehill at Southwell last time and may have further improvement in him.

Another top heavy market where McCoy rides Duty Free 1.15 anad 1.2 the front 2 to place
Vicario - now 10/11 (early doors -it's not yet midday)but Duty Free is 3-2- for McCoy - any chance of a Ted Rogers for AP - 3-2-1 today?
AP is always trustworthy on well fancied market leaders in this type of race


740 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Truxton King, 9/4 Wikaala, 5/1 Totoman, 8/1 First Smash, Urban Gale, 14/1 Wolflord, 20/1 Bernie Bach, Munsboro Storm, Old Theatre Royal, Yes Eighteen, 25/1 Chaparro, Kiltycross, 33/1 Baronsburg, Pure Delight, Secret Memoirs,

Walsh/Mullins on an already hardened fav (10/11) - highly illiquid market

750 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Virginia Hall, 11/4 Mahiki, 3/1 Florio Vincitore, 6/1 Gold Crusher, 25/1 Southwark Newshawk, 33/1 Baby Judge, 50/1 Blue Bond.

DIOMED VERDICT: Mahiki is defending an unbeaten course record but will find things tougher in this company and preference is for VIRGINIA HALL.

Does 2nd fav's absence had the initiative to Virginia in this 50/50 place race? 1.15 to place in a race where 3 are 20/1 or bigger

FOOTBALL

16:00

Juventus vs Vicenza

1/5

9/2

8/1

17:30

Stuttgart Kickers vs Bayern Munich

14/1

5/1

1/8

17:45

Snt Julia vs Levski Sofia

11/1

11/2

1/8

18:00

Apoel Nicosia vs EB Streymur

1/12

6/1

16/1

19:15

Kaizer Chiefs vs Manchester City

11/2

3/1

2/5

After their woeful performance against Orlando Pirates, I trust that this is the rock band they're playing and not the football team

19:30

Dinamo Zagreb vs Pyunik

1/7

5/1

11/1

19:45

FK Partizan vs Rhyl

1/16

7/1

16/1

19:45

Havant & Wat. vs Portsmouth

8/1

9/2

1/5

19:45

Bournemouth vs Fulham

6/1

11/4

2/5

An assortment of friendlies and early Champions league games
My shortlist of these would be Apoel at 1.09 to win at home. THis is a Champions LEague match and not a friendly. We saw with Real yesterday that there are wholesale changes in friendlies at half time which halt any continuity.

SHORTLIST

515 YARMOUTH Silver Prelude would be the first race in which the fav has the strongest placed credentials here. Falls into the 0-60 in a class 6 handicap price gapper system
1.23 is perfectly reasonable - 5 furlongs is a worrisome distance - these price gapper normally appear in middle distance handicaps

700 BANGOR - Faith herre that the race will be dominated by Font and Rodrigo Gonzales ,both around 1.18 to place. Font has the most recent form and represents the Nicholls yard

730 BANGOR - in another race where the front 2 are difficult to split, it's up to you really to build up an argument for or against the main protagonists. 7 1/2 hours till kick off give us plenty of time to assess this race from a number of angles - eg market moves etc.
At this stage, I also feel an element of confidence in AP McCoy when he's on board a well fancied horse who has a hint of ability.1.2 to place
As ever with these top heavy markets, it is rare for the top 2 to finish both placed - it is up to you to gamble whether you think these horses will dominate as the market suggests.

750 SOUTHWELL
A 50/50 race with 3 of the 6 at 25/1 or bigger, 2nd fav is out which hopefully allows Virginia Hall to place at 1.15 in this 2 the place race.

Apoel at 1.09 look good from the footy teams as they are at home for this Champions League early qualifier.(now touched 1.1)

ONE A DAY
750 SOUTHWELL Virginia Hall looks my personal pick today as the one with least niggles
Apoel at 1.1 currently look dencet enough for me as the footy bet to follow - a meaninglful game and a 1/16 shot!!

Again, I am unsure as to whether there will be a live chat. I was meant to be golfing this afternoon but it is currently raining.

20/7 UPDATE

Job done yesterday in the 400 Newbury with the 2 mentioned horses 1st and 2nd
Thought I'd start with a couple of interesting friendlies today.
Malaysian XI v Manchester United - United are 1/12 and scraped through another friendly 3-2. Shamrock Rovers play Real Madrid. A game I was going to see in Limerick if I wasn't in Guernsey. 1/10 they are

Should make for a decent double? 1.09 and 1.14 (the latter Real Madrid)
Of course they are friendlies but the Real Madrid game sees Ronaldo's debut and he will want to impress no doubt along with the other newcomers

600 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Diamond Laura, 7/1 Mrs Jones And Me, 10/1 High Rolling, Menediva, 12/1 Daisy Brown, 33/1 Cygnet Committee, Foricherforpoorer, Three Sons, Your Ladyship.

DIOMED VERDICT: The AW claimer won easily by DIAMOND LAURA early in the month was stronger than this and it's hard to find any reason to take her on.

1st opportunity comes in a 2 year old claimer-that's how poor the racing is today 1.1 to place -now 2/5 and 1/3 to win in places in what is a very poor race.
1.09 to place
630 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Graceful Descent, 100/30 Gulf Of Aqaba, 7/2 Maybe I Wont, 9/2 Honimiere, 8/1 Coral Shores, 20/1 Kingsholm, 33/1 Able Dara, Orchestrion.

DIOMED VERDICT: GRACEFUL DESCENT put up a cracking performance in defeat here last time and deserves to get her head in front.

5 horses under 20/1 and 8 places 1.29 to place but has probability chances if indeed this is a 5 horse race and there's 3 places 5 horses under 25/1 -the fav is 1.37 to place

650 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Slip, 5/2 Nawamees, 7/1 The Saucy Snipe, 10/1 Lady Jinks, 20/1 Everyman, 25/1 Soul Singer, Tabulate, 50/1 Lilleput, 66/1 Safari.

DIOMED VERDICT: NAWAMEES may be able to edge out Slip over this longer trip. 4 under 20/1 SLip is 1.18 to place SLip an important non runner surely leaves Nawamees as the default place only choice in a race where only 3 are under 14/1 in this race 1.13 to place SHORTLIST Man Utd at 1.09 is in the bag so one a day is in the bag for me at a rubbish price Of the horses 600 BEverley Diamond Laura looks solid at 1.09 and 650 Windsor Nawamees should take advantage of strong fav's non runner status, as he's the only remaining horse left under 7/1 1.13 is reasonable for him I'm happy with both of these and Real Madrid against Shamrock Rovers at 1.12 In time order I guess Diamond Laura but I must reiterate this is a shocking race!

19/7

Job done yesterday with ease

Racing was so frustrating I ended live chat early -so many non runners - bad ground made live market reading redundant pretty much

200 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Fongoli, 3/1 Location, 10/1 Highland River, 14/1 The Boat Shed, 16/1 Bertie Bacon, 50/1 Wise Princess.

McCoy on the fav here in this novice hurdle with 4 newcomers. Also Highland River is 9/2 in places hinting at support. And 2 places make this less than straightforward

225 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Famous Warrior, 7/2 Bosphorus Queen, Simon Bolivar, 4/1 Chasing Angels, 10/1 Lil Ella, 12/1 Silver Soldier, 14/1 Royal Orbitros, 16/1 Kims Dream, They´Llknowmenow, 20/1 Footprint, Prince Of Fashion, Tough Regime, 25/1 Benwilt Barney, Cool Knight, Irish Reel, 33/1 Littlemiss Madness, 50/1 Be Gentle.

Only 4 under 14/1 here and soft ground today as compared with yesterday's heavy ground

230 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sizing Asia, 9/4 Right Option, 6/1 Penyfan Dawn, 7/1 Plenty Of Chat, 9/1 Heathfield Flyer, 14/1 Coup De Tabac, 33/1 Glacial Call, Light Entertainer, Lucky Eric, Meleeha, 50/1 Living The Dream, 66/1 He Be Cornish, Isitanywonder, 100/1 Cut To, Royal Band, Thematis.

DIOMED VERDICT: Sizing Asia didn’t look too keen last time so preference is for RIGHT OPTION.

5 horse race here if the betting is accurate

310 STRAT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tot Of The Knar, 2/1 Coq Hardi, 5/2 Just Amazing, 8/1 Shenanigan, 50/1 Lucent.

DIOMED VERDICT: TOT OF THE KNAR should take the beating if ready to go after a break.

3 horses-2 places?

325 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Three Rocks, 11/4 Georgebernardshaw, 4/1 Snaefell, 8/1 Croisultan, Impossible Dream, 12/1 Nanotech, Senor Benny, 14/1 Aine, Monivea.

Bolger/Manning and O'Brien/Murtagh top 2 could dominate
CAution - soft ground

340 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Classic Swain, 5/1 Consulate, 8/1 Seader, Twill, 10/1 Eddie Dowling, 20/1 Chalentina, 100/1 Alfies Express.

DIOMED VERDICT: Galway Hurdle entry CLASSIC SWAIN isn't straightforward but he has a good record in blinkers and can add to his tally at the main expense of Consulate. Only 3 under 20/1 , one of which is a 1/3 shot 400 NA BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Rippling Ring, 11/4 R De Rien Sivola, 3/1 Mutual Friend, 7/1 Safari Journey, 10/1 Invisible Man, 14/1 Morestead, 16/1 Misbehaviour, 100/1 Haroum, Secret Cavern. DIOMED VERDICT: MUTUAL FRIEND can translate the useful hurdle form he's been producing to fences in what could prove an informative race. 2nd fav a non runner makes for an interesting market -7 runners and only 4 under 25/1 - should be 3 places on Betfair 515 TIPPERARY BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Older And Wiser, 11/2 Grand Charisma, 13/2 Peplum, 8/1 College Daisy, 10/1 Baily Rock, Katie´s Jem, 12/1 Augherskea, Present Gem, 14/1 Defying Gravity, 16/1 Valley Of Thrushes, 20/1 Castlewellan, Ifyour Presenting, Quiet Accord, 25/1 Here Me Come, Oscarwood, 33/1 Adorable Jane, Watt A Diva, 50/1 Fifty Horse Power, That´s Carroll, Wests Best, Ruby Walsh onboard an odds on price gapper should be interesting ONE A DAY 400 NEWTON ABBOTT looks the race to focus on - 7 runners and 3 places - Mutual Friend 1.31 here just cos he's the shortest ,but I would wait and go with market leader here in what should be a 4 horse race and 3 places. McCoy deserves consideration too on Rippling ring

saturday live chat

18/7

Job done yesterday
Interestingly Spurs won yesterday 3-0 so perhaps it's worth backing Premiership clubs in friendlies where the gulf is huge?

215 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ejteyaaz, 7/4 Andantino, 10/1 Fuerte Miramar, 12/1 Light Years Ahead, 14/1 Runaway Rose, Take Him Home, 16/1 Debbie Harri, 20/1 Lisagore Lady, Loughderg Princess, 25/1 The Bay Bandit, Travel Treat, 33/1 Ainm Spartacus, Rio Branston.

2 class trainers/jockeys in the front 2 BUT heavy ground 1.1 and 1.39 the front 2 but this market is very illiquid

240 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rupestrian, 7/1 Pure Crystal, Red China Blues, Royal Max, True Britannia, 9/1 Tropical Bachelor, 14/1 Highland Storm, Jonnie Skull, 50/1 Dollar Express.

DIOMED VERDICT: The market will be invaluable but TRUE BRITANNIA could be the one to end Rupestrian's winning run.

On a hatrick and the price gap remains. Not a handicap so no weight increase issues, but this novice hurdle has the look of a maiden with debutants to hurdling. 1.4 to place - again markets are quite quiet at midday

305 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Sunshine Always, 100/30 Maswerte, 4/1 Sovereign Remedy, 11/2 Pride Of Kings, 7/1 Bravo Echo, 10/1 Aim To Achieve, 14/1 Tarzan, 25/1 Kings Troop.

DIOMED VERDICT: The step up to 1m is expected to unlock further improvement from MASWERTE.

Only 4 remain and hopefully 3 places -yes 3 places -sunshine always is 1.12, Maswerte is 1.17 , aim to achieve is 1.39 and brave echo is 1.73
This looks like the race

345 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Silver Shoon, 13/2 Bob´s Ransom, 8/1 Orlando Dawn, Spring Horizon, 12/1 Luckydolly, Sweet Effie, 16/1 Dynamique, 20/1 Bay Knight, Catching The Moon, Rolling Steel, 25/1 Dooie Dancer, 33/1 Barefield.

Weld/Smullen price gapper but again heavy ground -1.06 again very illiquid

415 MR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Any Given Day, 11/4 Moment Present, 4/1 Alesandro Mantegna, 13/2 Viable, 12/1 Kayf Commander, 28/1 Galley Slave, 66/1 Night Reveller, 80/1 Barlin Bay, 100/1 Miss Zigzag.

DIOMED VERDICT: ANY GIVEN DAY sets a useful standard despite the double penalty and can make it three from three over hurdles.

Only 4 under 16/1 the ones to concentrate on? 1.19 any given day in what we hope is a 4 horse race

525 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Tamarind, 8/1 Fontegiusta, Table Forty Six, 10/1 Happy Milly, 14/1 Gortnasool Girl, Up For Glory, 20/1 Angels Game, Fin Rua, Go Teddy Go, Missy Mahopac.

Murtagh/O'Brien on a 1 /4 shot -even given the heavy conditions cannot be readily dismissed -1.06 to place and 1.31 to win

725 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Agente Parmigiano, 4/1 Elna Bright, 5/1 Captain Jacksparra, 10/1 Statute Book, 12/1 Blow Hole, 16/1 Nun Today, Whotsit, 20/1 Musigny, Noverre To Hide, 33/1 Annan Rock, Shake On It, 100/1 Rony Dony.

DIOMED VERDICT: The 95-rated AGENTE PARMIGIANO (nap), who has kept useful company this term, should be able to take advantage of a big drop in grade

Class droppers have really performed well haven't they when they've been highlighted, and although this is a claimer, the fav is still a price gapper. 1.19 to place

755 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Slip, 11/4 Guiseppe Verdi, Polish Power, 20/1 Dramatic Jewel, Platoche, 25/1 La Belle Joannie, Romantic Interlude, 33/1 Infinite Patience, Primera Rossa, Spin Sister, 50/1 Calling Birds, Felicia,

DIOMED VERDICT: GUISEPPE VERDE has gone to a yard with a good record with cast-offs from other yards and can defy his absence now down in grade.

3 horse race, but Platoche is 10/1 too so focus on these 4? 1.3 to place Slip,

910 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Speed Dating, 6/1 Kindest, 8/1 Fortunate Bid, 10/1 Cavendish Road, Harriet´s Girl, 12/1 Black River Falls, Iron Man Of Mersey, 16/1 Dean Iarracht, 20/1 Fantino, Flying Silks, Neo´s Mate, 25/1 Lost In The Desert, Piccolo Express, Rose Cheval.

DIOMED VERDICT: SPEED DATING is open to improvement having made his comeback at a time when his yard was quiet.

Price gapper in a class 5 0-70 handicap -would prefer a class 6 0-60 handicap 1.32

FOOTBALL

14:00

Orlando Pirates vs Manchester City

11/2

13/5

4/9

15:00

Barnet vs Arsenal

10/1

4/1

1/5

15:00

Rochdale vs Everton

6/1

10/3

1/3

15:00

Gateshead vs Sunderland

9/1

7/2

1/4

20:00

Seattle vs Chelsea

15/2

10/3

2/7

My contention is that Premiership clubs v poorer quality opposition should win easily even though it's a friendly and ultimately meaningless game
Results have shown this recently with Blackburn and Spurs winning easily
Arsenal looks the standout of the above games

SHORTLIST
305 Newmarket -4 horse race and 3 places -sunshine always was the original favourite and it is a simple case of not finishing last!
525 TIPP - Tamarand for Aiden O'Brien and Jonny Murtagh looks v solid but the price belies this
Barnet v Arsenal - I have read that this game can be a bit of fun for the Arse but 1.22 is very enticing isn't it in the hope they can dipatch Barnet.
Not in running alas, and the ideal with footy bets is to manage positions
Everton look solid against Rochdale

ONE A DAY
305 Newmarket is the best probability bet of the day -4 horses and 3 places - 1.12 for the fav to place is great

FRI LIVE CHAT

17/7

Rosenborg drew 0-0 and that's the last time-Europa early stages too unpredictable. Live chatters would have noted another race where it was tight amongst the market leaders, and two became non runners.
The 500 LEicester was the race and Seaway went off odds on after original 1st and 2nd favs Merdaam and Ottoman Empire became non runners - again reaction to circumstances - and wellbefore the Rosenborg game luckily!

The 6 runner race with 3 only under 33/1 was a winner for one a day

235 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Emerald Commander, 8/1 Haatheq, Lean Machine, Poltergeist, 12/1 Texan Star, 14/1 Banana Republic, Chain Of Events, 16/1 Il Portico, Mandarin Express, Spa´s Dancer, Ultravox, 25/1 Walcot Square, 33/1 Fancy Star, Gene Autry, Helaku, 40/1 Apostle Of Rome, Gordon Flash, 66/1 Claimant.

DIOMED VERDICT: EMERALD COMMANDER ran very promisingly in an above-average Newmarket maiden last week and it will probably take a good one to lower his colours.

Only 2 under 12/1 in the betting forecast, and it's that old story about a market leader who's only previous run was full of promise, expected to win this biggish field maiden 1.41 to place - update at 115pm - has hardened in the betting

115PM UPDATE
245 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tasmeem, 9/4 Benrish, 7/2 Running Mate, 11/2 Hill Of Miller, 14/1 Jamarjo, 20/1 Law Of Attraction, 33/1 Field Elect, 100/1 Shercon,

DIOMED VERDICT: Positive market signals for Tasmeem would be very significant but, as things stand, BENRISH is taken to build on the promise of his Ayr debut.

Very tricky given most are newcomers in this maiden but Benrish is a significant non runner and there's only 6 left now with 3 places
3 under 10/1
Tasmeen anad Running mate both 1.3 in a 3 the place race full of risk given debutants and maiden

115PM UPDATE
255 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Visions Of Johanna, 9/4 King Supreme, 5/1 Maadraa, 11/2 Locum, 12/1 Game Roseanna.

DIOMED VERDICT: No guaranteed front-runner but that shouldn't bother 1m winner VISIONS OF JOHANNA.

Locum is a non runner and there's one clear outsider
1.3 for the main 2 to place (or to beat one to place!)



310 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Showcasing, 5/2 Walkingonthemoon, 5/1 Avonrose, 10/1 Deal, Hearts Of Fire, 16/1 Duplicity, 25/1 Royal Desert,

DIOMED VERDICT: Walkingonthemoon should go well if the ground is good or on the soft side but looks vulnerable to the more scopey SHOWCASING.

Listed event and only 3 under 10/1 -fav is strongly fancied but is a class riser and listed races are naturally made up of top quality horses 1.25 and 2 places and live chatters have seen the folly of 2 the place place betting recently
Now 5/6 and hardened at the head of the betting as I update at 115pm - last 2 have been class 5 and class 4, now in class 1 listed company!

355 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Cobo Bay, 3/1 Prime Exhibit, 6/1 Jack Cool, 8/1 Ansells Pride, 10/1 Satwa Gold, Toto Skyllachy, 14/1 Full Victory, 16/1 Brouhaha, Hustle.

DIOMED VERDICT: COBO BAY (nap) is due to go up 5lb in future handicaps following his good second at Ayr and he has shown even better form in the past.

Cobo Bay, home to the Rockmount where I am going to see a U2 tribute act on Sunday, looks well in here in this now 7 runner race with hopefully still 3 places 1.39 in an illiquid market
Amy Ryan claims 5 and rode Cobo to 2nd of 11 last time out

430 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Phoenix Enforcer, 7/2 Moggy, 13/2 King´s Chorister, 8/1 Independent James, Paymaster In Chief, 12/1 Nouailhas, 16/1 Fleur De´Lion, 20/1 Black Nun.

DIOMED VERDICT: PHOENIX ENFORCER comes out clear best on adjusted BHA ratings and her trainer has a good strike-rate in sellers. Price gapper in a seller - 1.23 to place -UPDATE - now strong odds on shot but we must account for the race type - BUT 3 places 455 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Ashram, 7/2 Bonnie Charlie, 9/2 The Cheka, 8/1 Summer Fete, 20/1 Tropical Paradise, 40/1 Kaabari. DIOMED VERDICT: ASHRAM (nap) will take some stopping on his fine Royal Ascot effort. A 3 horse race (4 at a stretch) for 2 places. Diomed is sweet on Frankie's mount 1.38 to place 505 NOTT BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Phillipina, 13/2 Silk And Satin, 8/1 Samaaha, 16/1 Bessie Lou, 20/1 Park Melody, 33/1 Anessia, 40/1 Nawojka, Salamon, 50/1 Seeking Faith, 150/1 Hindford Oak Sioux, Noble Attitude. DIOMED VERDICT: The 103-rated PHILLIPINA sets a useful standard back in maiden company and should be difficult to beat. Fillies have their minds on make up and shopping but this is quite a price gap and the hint of a "hard to beat" and these tend to place regularly - the default bet today perhaps if there is nothing better? 1.07 to place - may be a case of taking our medicine today in a poor day? 905 KILBEGGAN BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Huckle Buck Shoe, 5/1 Miss Mary Mac, 6/1 Logan´s Manor, 7/1 Butlers Glen, 8/1 Celia´s Express, Irish To The Core, 10/1 Daneva, Plan Of Action, Running Dale, 12/1 Eyelash Island, 14/1 Cordless, 16/1 Belville View, 20/1 Bemo Three, Kizmehoney, 25/1 Cailin Blath, 33/1 Tungsten Steel, Price gapper in an unappetising evening ,simply because this is a Mullins horse in a bumper - fav by reputation/ - highly illiquid market THe Spuds are away to Harry's old club Bourmenouth tonight and are 1/4 and should prevail of course but this is a friendly 1.3 NOT IN RUNNING SHORTLIST 235 NEWBURY - Emaerald commander 1.35 now to place - a 10 point swing from when I first wrote the blog earlier. BUT only one run - how can we be sure he will replicate in a big field maiden 245 NOTT MUST be of interest with the non runners - 6 runners left and 3 places - perhaps running mate -with the experience under his belt , will NOT get beaten by 3 other horses ? 505 NOTT - Phillipina looks a good selection based on nothing more than the price gap could be enhanced by backing at 1.55 and trying to get out at 1.30 in running ( assumption is the horse will run as his price and reduce at least .25 points to allow for an equivalent 1.25 bet. - ONE A DAY 245 Nott is yet another probability race BUT who to chose? There are 3 under 10/1 so that's a starting point. 3 have run before versus 3 debutants The shortest priced horse with experience is Running Mate at 2/1 and surely he will run as price dictates? The fav Tasmeem is a $130,000 horse and a debutant and is currently 6/4. Good flat stable - do you follow the market or opt for shortest priced horse with experience? 505 NOTT- Phillipina has run in some big top class races and deserves the 1/2 quote. 1 mile 3 furlongs a niggle as is the jockey who takes over from Ryan Moore as the former can claim 5 lbs. This, I think, will be my one a day to back to win at current 1.54 and place a lay bet in running to trigger at 1.30. Currently 1.08 to place which is rising and may hit 1.1? So take your pick. Of course, as ever, if I can do the live chat, no doubt we will have the advantage of market movers and late non runners allowing us to alter from the above 2 which have the disadvantage of pre race information only

16/7 LIVE CHAT

16/7

Levski could not score at half time but a huge gamble on Secret dancer in the first race yesterday paid off for some one a dayers in the live chat, and in the 210, 2 horses were under 14/1 in the live betting - one became a non runner, leaving Persian Falcon with an outstanding chance of success. And that was my one a day.
I did mention yesterday that I was going to try to find a horse before the football and so it was luckily, to keep my one a day record going.

200 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Lake Wakatipu, 9/2 Bannville, Crazy Eyes, 5/1 Quedillac, 16/1 Speedy Max, 20/1 Corporation, Crai Crum, 33/1 Boston Bay, Elusive Swallow, Kayaka, Parisian Knight.

DIOMED VERDICT: LAKE WAKATIPU should have no problem picking herself up from an unlucky defeat at Aintree to win a race like this.

4 under 16/1 the ones to concentrate on?1.23 to place

220 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Melody In The Mist, 4/1 Layla´s Hero, 9/2 Aintwogrand, 10/1 Firetrap, 16/1 Ochilview Warrior, 20/1 Clever Molly, 66/1 Kirkby´s Gem,

DIOMED VERDICT: MELODY IN THE MIST sets a clear standard on her narrow defeat over C&D last month with Layla's Hero and Aintwogrand biggest dangers.

5 under 20/1 in the live market
Was 8 runners but now 7- hopefully 3 places still on betfair - only 2 places and fav odds on and 1.24 to place

240 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Izuizorizuain´T, 100/30 Musiara, 8/1 Annia Galeria, 16/1 Grace Jicaro, Ishe A Lord, 25/1 Saachi´s Vision, That´Lldonowthen, 33/1 Althabea, 66/1 Beach Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: A weak seller which appears at the mercy of IZUIZORIZUAIN'T.

Price gapper but a seller - 1.18 to place

250 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Obe Gold, 9/4 Raccoon, 11/4 High Curragh, 10/1 Just Joey, 16/1 Rue Soleil, 25/1 Ava´s World, 50/1 Gelert, 66/1 Throw The Dice.

DIOMED VERDICT: OBE GOLD is taken to mow down Raccoon and High Curragh late on.

8 runners down to 6, and a race where only 3 are under 33/1 -looks ideal if 3 places on Betfair still - raccoon and Obe are 1.07 in what looks a clear 50/50 race

400 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Urban Poet, 7/2 Proud Times, 4/1 Acquavella, 13/2 Jeunopse, 10/1 Clientele, Moon Money, 20/1 Rapid Desire, 33/1 Agricultural, 100/1 Ducal Regancy Duke, Go Man Go.

DIOMED VERDICT: Proud Times sets the standard but URBAN POET, a half-brother to high-class colt and leading US sire Pulpit, may prove up to the task on his debut.

Urbn Poet is another Johnston juvenile so you know the drill - watch for support for this debutant 1.5 to place - we need to see the race in the live environment to see if there is any confidence or otherwise

500 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Ottoman Empire, 4/1 Merdaam, Seaway, 5/1 Bow To No One, 8/1 Lacrosse, 16/1 Stormy Morning, 20/1 Arashi, Flodden Field, Laafet, Reset City, 33/1 Billy The Gas.

DIOMED VERDICT: OTTOMAN EMPIRE ran well at Pontefract on his second start and could be the one to beat.

Seaway the early mover at the moment for Godolphin 1.48 to place

610 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ogre, 4/1 Brooksby, 11/2 Roly Boy, 6/1 Caprio, 15/2 Carmenero, Resplendent Nova, 16/1 Star Strider, 40/1 Mystic Roll.

DIOMED VERDICT: Richard Hannon's pair of Roly Boy and, in particular, Brooksby have to be respected but OGRE is quite a force at claiming level and can go in again. Ultra consistent claiming horse this Ogre. 1.28 to place and Caprio is a mover 1.56 to place 700 LEOP BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Viscount Nelson, 7/2 Lake Worth, 5/1 Dazzling Day, 6/1 Concert Piece, 12/1 Crying Time, 14/1 Giopi, 20/1 Cataspheric. Aiden O'Brien fav who should improve for the first run 1.17 to place and 2 places 730 LEOP BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Empress of France, 4/1 Reflected Image, 6/1 Sugar Baby Love, 7/1 Alazan, Clodova, 10/1 About A Girl, Bernardo O´Higgins, 12/1 Boo Boo Bear, Four Mirrors, 14/1 Screen Diva, 16/1 My Own Patron, 20/1 Night Spark, Tara Warrior, 25/1 Statenice, Twenty Bags, 33/1 Crystal Idea, Grand Minstrel, Mexican Way. Another O'Brien maiden horse but a disconcertingly big field - illiquid market 810 DONCASTER BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Forgotten Voice, 9/2 Bushman, 11/2 Moyenne Corniche, 6/1 Dream Lodge, 16/1 Perks. DIOMED VERDICT: There is nothing to suggest FORGOTTEN VOICE won't handle softer conditions than he has met so far and he is taken to maintain his unbeaten record. Impressing win record but concerns over soft ground should be revealed in the live betting market near the off -1.23 to place FOOTBALL 17:00 FC Honka vs Bangor City 1/4 18:00 Rosenborg vs Qarabag 1/12 18:00 Sigma Olomouc vs Fram Reykjavik 1/6 18:00 Elfsborg vs Haladas 4/11 18:00 Anorthosis vs Petrovac 1/4 18:15 Rapid Vienna vs Vllaznia 1/5 18:30 Basel vs Santa Coloma 1/33 18:30 Omonia Nicosia vs Torshavn 1/10 19:00 Legia Warsaw vs Olimpi 2/7 19:05 Brondby vs Flora 1/6 19:30 Juvenes/Dogana vs Polonia Warszaw 12/1 6/1 1/9 19:45 NAC Breda vs Gandzasar 1/16

Ultra

SHORTLIST
250 HAMILTON
Great 50/50 race here - raccoon and obe gold the 2 here - 3 places and 1.07 the pair
700 LEOP - Viscount Nelson is 1.17 but 2 places BUT O'Brien horse who should improve for the first run
Rosenborg 1.09 to win outright.

ONE A DAY
250 Hamilton looks ideal albeit with a poor price
and then Rosenborg I feel. They are solid enough and at 1/12 at home should bring it home for the straight win.

LIVECHAT WED

15/7 resend mark 2!

Job done yesterday in a very tight 3 horse race, but the horse was not beaten by 2.

140 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs High Gales, 3/1 Alanna Castle, 5/1 War Party, 11/2 Anfield Road, 20/1 Glacier Express, Secret Dancer, 25/1 Douglas Julian, 50/1 Checked Shirt, 100/1 Karinga Magic, Montevetro, Quatuor Collonges, Rockman.

DIOMED VERDICT: It looks significant that Tony McCoy is aboard HIGH GALES, who showed a bit of temperament in bumpers but also plenty of ability and today's longer trip should suit.

Only 4 under 20/1 and McCoy on the short priced fav. 1.2 to place - update - now 5 under 20/1 with Secret dancer a significant mover into 3/1
Still it remains a 5 horse race if the market is accurate and 2 to beat to place for McCoy's mount

220 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Almuktahem, 15/8 Shakalaka, 5/1 Mayolynn, 15/2 Emiratesdotcom, 12/1 Ebony Eyes, 25/1 Grand Pere, 33/1 Peal Park, 40/1 Barnes Bridge, 66/1 Calling Birds.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHAKALAKA's reappearance second on his debut for this stable last month earns him the vote ahead of Almuktahem.

Emiratesdotcom may be worth keeping an eye on if supported for the Johnston yard -Shak and Almu are the 2 sharing favouratism and no money as yet for the Johnston horse - 1.3 the front 2 to place in another race with a distinct price gap between 4th and 5th horse

230 CAtteRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Mister Angry, 11/4 Coloursoftheglen, 6/1 Just The Tonic, 7/1 Aquarian Spirit, 12/1 Bubbelas, Desert Forest, 33/1 Durham Reflection.

DIOMED VERDICT: Runaway Wolverhampton winner MISTER ANGRY looks another useful juvenile for the Johnston yard and can follow up.

2nd fav a non runner should make life easier for the fav? 1.32 to place - only 2 runners - odds on still this Mr Angry with Just the tonic clipped to 3/1 in response to 2nd fav's absence

240 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Winchester Red, 11/2 Sam Cruise, 7/1 Jackie Boy, 10/1 Particle, 12/1 Esme Rides A Gaine, Skipper´s Lad, 14/1 Arctic Shadow, Present Oriented, 16/1 River Ripples, 20/1 Letham Island, Sundarbob, 25/1 Doc Reason, Shammy Buskins, Westfield Bob, 33/1 Basis Point, 50/1 Pondhill Lad.

DIOMED VERDICT: WINCHESTER RED (nap) has greatly impressed over hurdles and fences recently and, off the same mark, is very much the one to beat.

Price gapper here but a biggish chase field. 1.21 to place and 4 places - 2nd fav is out accentuating price gap in live market evens - - - - - - - 7/1. On a hatrick - last 2 wins hurdle and chase - remains strong in the market

310 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Call Me Max, 5/1 Last Pioneer, 8/1 Psychiatrist, 10/1 Hollow Ranger, Hot Zone, Thistle, Villochely, 12/1 Corum, 14/1 Arcadia Boy, 16/1 High Standard, 33/1 Marino Prince, 50/1 Bold Phoenix, 100/1 Gozome, Layed Back Rocky.

DIOMED VERDICT: Irish runner CALL ME MAX ought to retain more than enough ability to get the job done in plating class.

Price gapper with McCoy on board but a seller 1.32 to place - now 1.19 to place (1245pm) , this is a seller regardless of whether McCoy is up or not

FOOTBALL
Europa league matches today may see some opportunities

16:00

Ventspils vs Dudelange

1/10

17:45

Levski Sofia vs Sant Julia

1/50

18:50

Maccabi Haifa vs Glentoran

2/9

19:15

FC Copenhagen vs Mogren

1/6

19:30

Wisła Kraków vs Levadia Tallinn

1/6

Ventspils 1.17 to win this Europa Cup game. At that price and at home, you would expect a 2+ goal victory. Concern that these teams have not met before
Levski Sofia are 1.03 to win which suggests many goals, and them to be winning at half time-surely?.Currently 1.15 for Half time ( you can also find this under the halftime/fulltime market) this is reasonable for a side quoted 1/50 by Ladbrokes.
As these one a days are usually bets where it is a shock if the bet does not come in, well it would be a shock to me were a 1/50 side unable to score to no reply in the first half.


Exeter v Spurs- the Spuds are 1.34 in yet anther friendly
St Gallen v Liverpool - Liverpool are 1.52 to win - St GAllen are a Swiss side I know little about, suffice to say their football week in-week out is probably not Premiership standard!!
A very iliquid market-may be a match for experimentation by the fat Spanish waiter? 1.51 certainly is very enticing but is