1 march

Laureldean Melody a very frustrating 4th for each way backers. Josh you are came 3rd which was very welcome for a horse backed off the boards who I decided to oppose. Hope you notices the wrong bet in the Nantes game - Nantes /Draw should have read Draw/Nantes - I personally included the draw/draw break even and managed to break even - there was just that niggle that winning sequences do come to an end
3 into 1's are improving slowly - Randwick Roar at a good9/4 and Ben BAcchus 11/10 - incidentally 2 of the systems used created 7 winners between then yesterday - as I said "ye horse racing gods, why do you mock me so!"

I predict the cards today will be rather uninspiring with Cheltenham on the horizon

DONCASTER
ANother busy Saturday wen the obvious tend to slip up

300
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Schinken Otto, 9/4 Ela Re, 5/2 Salhood, 12/1 Chaninbar, 14/1 Polished .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This weak handicap can go to SCHINKEN OTTO, who has been in good form on the AW since last seen chasing. Ela Re can follow him home.[AC]

A 3 horse race as far as the prices are concerned. backing all 3 for , for example, £10 level stakes ,gives a £3 return on each.With the opponents to Scinken otto so close in price, perhaps backing Ela re and Salhood to the exclusion of the market leader ( effectively laying the market leaders) can boost returns?
KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Working Title, 7/2 I Have Dreamed, 8/1 Outaouais, 10/1 Into The Wild, Noticeable, 20/1 Danger Zone, 25/1 Haddaaf, 33/1 Atomic Winner, 66/1 My Beautaful .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to be between the Cheltenham entries Working Title and I HAVE DREAMED, and there is a danger of Gary Moore's charge being underestimated following his defeat last time in a race that was not run to suit him

A good opportunity to back Working Title and I have dreamed to level stakes leaving a nice profit on I have dreamed and slight loss on fav. you can dutch both to equal profit if you want but I prefer this type of bet

NAVAN
530
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Time Electric, 5/1 Limestone Cowboy, 7/1 Judge Roy Bean, 8/1 Forty Foot, 10/1 Picture This, The Thirsty Bricky, 12/1 Flora May, Nor People, 16/1 Matter Of Interest, 20/1 Albert Accord, Give Us A Hand, Iwilltellyouwhen, 25/1 Beneficial Banks, 50/1 Gothenberg Double, 66/1 Spinning Breeze .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIME ELECTRIC delivered on a strong home-reputation when winning in commanding fashion on his debut at Leopardstown and is bound to be a warm order in view of his position in the ante-post market for Cheltenham up to the point of the announcement that he is to be aimed at Punchestown instead. The manner in which he took control of the race suggests he could be a very good horse, and the strong visual impression more than outweighs the fact that the form has not been franked.

Price gap evident - i AM TAKEN BY THE spOTLIGHT COMMENTARY , but AS YOU CAN SEE, IT'S A BIG FIELD AND A BUMPER TO BOOT (sorry caps lock locked!)
I will chance Time Electric to fulfil reputation and monitor th back bet in running

NEWBURY
135
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Cryptic, 11/4 Aux Le Bahnn, 12/1 Pharanto, 20/1 Rebel Rock, 25/1 Geneva Bay, 28/1 Posh Dude, 33/1 R´Cam .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to see beyond CRYPTIC despite the big penalty, as this looks an easier assignment than when a clearcut winner in quite a well-contested race at Wincanton last time. Aux le Bahnn is easily the biggest danger.

Aux le Bahnn is an obvious each way bet

3 into 1 SYSTEM
Some semblance of a return yesterday
340 KELSO - Magic Sky
325 KEMPTON - Stellenbosch
400 KEMPTON - Classic fiddle
135 NEWBURY - Cryptic
750 WOLVES - Ninth House

FOOTY
First game of interest is the Hibs v Celtic game - Celtic bounced back after a poor away performance against St mirren. This is a MUST WIN game for Celtic and with that in mind Celtic are worth backing at 4/6 to trade if they score first.
This is going to be a tough one for Celtic but is worth an interest despite the market saying this is no gimme
Hibs have done the double at their ground and perhaps a neutral bet of over 2.5 goals to trade may also be worth an interest as there is certainly goals and a probalbe scoreline of 2-1 (but to who?) is probably likely

Schalke v Bayern at the top of the Bundesliga, and if in running I will be entertaining an under 2.5 goal trade for the first 20 minutes or so of the match

Arsenal at home look layable to these eyes at 8/15 against a Villa side on a roll. Still struck down with a variety of injuries the 8/15 quote tells us like the Celtic game) this is likely to be decided by the single goal . Perhaps this could be an angle in to the winning margin 0 and 1 goal dutch ( if that market is available)

I will lay Brum today at home. Spurs are on a high and will look for revenge after going down at home to Brum last time. Again, Brum really have proved dogged at home but may not win , and could draw.

Fulham lost to the Arse 3-0 on their manor - can we expect the same today with an equivalent team in Man Utd?
Another venture into half time\Full tim Man Utd/Man Utd ; Draw/Man Utd can help enhance the match odds 1.38. You may want to include draw/draw given Fulham NEED to win.
Brian MCBRide is back in the Fulham team and 7.6 is a speculative price for him to score.
Again we can back Rooney and Ronny to score at 2.08 and 2.22 to level stakes - break even if one scores , happy days if they both score.

Newcastle at 6/4 are once again layable in the match odds market - the key here is to hope Blackburn score so that 6/4 will rise sharply. Could be another poor day for the Messiah!
Again monitor in running to trade off

Rangers v Aberdeen - while Rangers are in the mood, a speculative punt on over 3.5 goals will retain an interest and allow flexibility in trading should Rangers score 2 early

Real MAdrid in turmoil - on a bit of a losing run in all competitiions and losing at home to Getafe will not do. Worthy of interest at 4/5 away to Recreativo to break this losing sequence. Over 2.5 goals , judging by past expereince, could be a good tradeable bet

FAr too many football bets today that I will prune as the day progresses.

29/2

Slight profit on Mias Boy yesterday at Lingfield.Dhhamaan won for a break even .The top 4 in the betting at Betfair were not the same as those I gave -why? Well Stoneacre Sarah was 12/1 in the betting forecast punted into 7/2 - you guessed it -a 16/1 system bet and won well. Beauchamp oracle placed for each way backers. Familiar territory placed - Curlin was never going to mess that up!
Break even on Cocoa BEach winning and Third Set won for Frankie at Nad al Sheeba.Nice win on Paca D'oudairies at Taunton taking te early prices on BEtfair as I did ensured I got a good price relative to the price the horse went off at.
3 into 1's began well wit Blaeberry and Farmers Lad winning. Abbey Days was positioned price wise to win te hunter hase but unseated his rider as happens over jumps and especiall when you don't have a professional on board
Getafe won well -3-1 at home and the 11/10 looked decent in this Spanish Cup game. Well, watching the Arsenal ladies reminded me of better times at 10am on a Sunday with 10 hungover team mates trying to et it together to play 11 a side - not the best quality football I've ever witnessed and definitely not , in the future, a betting medium at all!

DONCASTER
200
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Overbranch, 2/1 Aimigayle, 6/1 Laureldean Melody, 14/1 Cute N You Know It, Hapeney, Mistress To No One, 20/1 Calow Green, 25/1 Red Letter Girl, 33/1 Roll Of Drums .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Overbranch is a progressive sort who should go well, despite the double penalty. However she may be more effective with more give underfoot and is taken on with AIMIGAYLE, who turned in her best effort over hurdles last time. Although down in trip, this galloping course should suit.[RY]
Chance of an each way bet here on Laureldean Melody given Spotlight's comment about the double penalty on the fav which may push the horse out of the win only reckoning?

DUNDALK
The Irish flat season kicks off today
Some maybe bets but I am blinded without the betting markets especially as some horses are returning after a break

WOLVES
325
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Josh You Are, 5/1 Bugsy´s Boy, 6/1 Salut Saint Cloud, 13/2 Easibet Dot Net, 7/1 Kanisorn, 10/1 Sovietta, 14/1 Phone Call, Rainbow Dash, 20/1 Arabian Sun, Market Watcher, 25/1 Indian Star, 33/1 Riff Raff, 50/1 Allez Melina .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few with chances but JOSH YOU ARE and Kirsty Milczarek gelled well at Lingfield earlier this week and, off the same mark, will surely make a bold bid to follow up. Easibet Dot Net, who found trouble in a slowly run affair here last time, could prove most troublesome
Perhaps Josh you are is layable in this race. What Spotlight didn't tell us was the race he won was an apprentice riders handicap against Little Wing who was ridden very naively.

This is a lay to back at a higher price in running

A quiet nday for me on the horses

3 INTO 1
Should have been 3 from 4 yesterday, but another unseated rider.
415 DONCASTER - RANDWICK ROAR
650 KEMPTON - HOLLOW JO
920 KEMPTON - BEN BACCHUS
250 WOLVES - ONE NIGHT IN PARIS

RAndwick Roar is under a penalty, Ben Bacchus is in a race described by Spotlight as only for the needy and greedy. One night in Paris is ,yes, a multiple handicap winner appearing again under a penalty. Oh ye racing Gods-why do you mock me so?


FOOTBALL
Nantes can continue their impressive run of late at home this evening although 2/7 is not giving much away - half ime fulltim Nantes/Nantes ; Nantes/Draw may enhance returns although I am wary that their good run will end soon

28/2

Your grandchildren will one day ask "Grampa,do you remember where you were when Georgios Samaras scored a goal?" - unbelievable scenes! Rangers and Hearts decided to behave themselves with only 2 yellow cards - 1st goal came in the 25th minute for the first goal odds dutch. The Racing Post proved invaluable yesterday in telling us about Hearts' injury scares which made the 8/13 about Rangers even more enticing - so bear that in mind - any snippets of information that can alter your opinions is worth taking on board.

Draw/Draw full time was the most profitable result with the Boro match.

Elsewhere we we so near a bumper payout on Lady Wright - trading at 1.72 I could have greened the screen for a £37 profit instead of holding out of a £68 payout for a £5 stake but the horse emptied out but still placed. Olympian didn't place ,neither did Littleton Aldor - the 1.79 was spot on for the place only market in telling us this was no given. You would have got a return on the more obvious Tarabaloo instead of Will Excell but with the latter we could put on smaller stakes for a potential bigger return.

The Wolves dutch came off. and we were right to oppose Little Wing ,but Bussell Up only placed.

3 into 1 continues to select inappropriate races , and Sion Hill, although winning, wasn't a 3 into 1 selection - bloody typical!. Beggars Cap won at a silly price. You may be wondering why I keep faith in it - well its because the profits prior to trialling the system out in the open were superb

You see the value of personal opinion over mechanical systems though, but I do appreciate the importance of mechanical systems for those who want to bet and go.

LINGFIELD
210

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Count Ceprano, 100/30 Best One, 7/2 Mia´s Boy, 5/1 Seneschal, 8/1 Trivia, 12/1 Paraguay ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Count Ceprano has rediscovered winning form recently but this small field should play to the strengths of SENESCHAL. Top weight Mia’s Boy is worth noting in the market

The defection of Count Cyprano has left the 3 market leaders currently priced at 3.15, 3.3 and 3.95 - all backable to level stakes - staking of £9, £10, £10 will create a slight loss on the best one, £3.80 profit on Mias Boy, and equivalent evens return on Seneschal
Beware - apprentice handicap!Only 2 other horses enter the equation and cannot be dismissed because of the race type but probability wise we are covering the 3 most likely

240
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dhhamaan, 2/1 Wee Buns, 5/1 Llab Nala, 10/1 Mileaminutemurphy, 12/1 Racie Gracie .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop in grade and trip looks just the ticket for DHHAMAAN who can add to his C&D win back in November under Hayley Turner.[AC]

I like these bets - level stakes on Dhhamaan and Wee Bunns produces virtual break even on Dhamaan and nice profit on Wee Bunns. At current prices, Llab Nala is the fly in the ointment.

340
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Stoneacre Chris, 5/2 Capriccioso, 7/2 Allium, 12/1 Rightcar Dominic, Stoneacre Sarah, 20/1 Gelert, Stoneacre Paddy, 25/1 Sevenovus, 33/1 Stoneacre Ma ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Peter Grayson is mob-handed here as he was when his outsider Stoneacre Pat beat STONEACRE CHRIS in a similar event over C&D earlier this month, with Allium and Capriccioso among those behind. With that experience under her belt, Stoneacre Chris should be able to confirm her superiority in a race that looks no stronger.[

I would think Peter Grayson has a great chance of winning this. 8 of the 10 runners are his!

We can level stakes back the top 4 here in Stoneacre Chris, Allium, Rightcar Dominic and Capriccioso to the following stakes ratios
£12, £12,£12,£9 on current betfair prices of 4.5, 4.4, 4.3, 7.2

produces profits of £12, £10.26, £9.12, £1.14
Prices indicate Stoneacre Paddy as the one who will muck it all up
BEWARE - 5 furlong maiden!

We are though covering the most likely winners in a race where 4 horses are priced 25/1 or over. The X FILES fans will perhaps see a Peter Grayson conspiracy - let the 50/1 shot win !

LUDLOW
450
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Red Brook Lad, 15/8 General Alarm, 7/2 Beauchamp Oracle, 10/1 Lost Time, 20/1 Wings Of Hope, 25/1 Over Bridge, 33/1 Lord Youky, 50/1 Snitton Salvo .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RED BROOK LAD holds Beauchamp Oracle on a couple of clashes during 2007 and his will to win remains stronger than ever judged on his near miss in a Dorset point earlier this month. General Alarm is a danger, though, especially if left alone up front.

A hunters chase - not the best betting medium, but for those willing to try and eek out a profit, we have 2 angles - each way on Beauchamp oracle or level stakes bets on Bed BRook Lad and General Alarm
I'll go down the each way route on BEauchamp oracle given the surpises that can occur in hunter chases

NAD AL SHEEBA
515
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Curlin, 4/1 Familiar Territory, 14/1 Engrupido, Imperialista, 33/1 Jet Express, 50/1 Arqaam .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The eagerly awaited UAE debut of last year's US Horse Of The Year CURLIN and, although he's unlikely to be at peak fitness on this first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Classic in October, it'll be a huge surprise if he is beaten in a race where all his rivals are upwards of 6lb out of the handicap. Pick of the remainder is Familiar Territory, who won with a bit in hand over C&D last time and is lightly raced enough to be open to further improvement.

Fav coming back ater 100+ days off. 6 runners -obvious each way candiate familiar territory - ready to pounce if Curlin doesn't give his running

615
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Cocoa Beach, 7/4 Fiesta Lady, 10/1 Classy-Lady, 20/1 Love Dancing, 25/1 Love Of Dubai, Olympic Glory, 33/1 Patio, Star Of Rosanna, 50/1 Dalkey Girl, 100/1 Miss Clonyn, Swallow Star .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor, who has won four of the seven runnings of the UAE Oaks, has a very strong hand with COCOA BEACH and Fiesta Lady and it's the former that gets the nod. The visor and the step up to 1m enabled her to reverse previous placings with her stablemate in the UAE 1000 Guineas and this longer trip should enable her to confirm that form. The only real concern is whether the headgear will work as well again. Argentinian Oaks winner Fiesta Lady will go very close if back to her best while the best each-way shot could be Bin Suroor's Love Dancing, who should be suited by this trip.[RY]

Godolphin saddle the 2 market principles - level stakes leaves near break even on Cocoa Beach and near evens profit on Fiesta Lady.
I wouldn't be swayed into backing the odds on shot - both market leaders are equally capable.

645
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Third Set, 13/2 Law Lord, 10/1 Metropolitan Man, Pride Of Nation, 12/1 Almuraad, Golden Arrow, 14/1 Albabilia, 25/1 Crossing, 33/1 Beckermet, 66/1 The Pirate ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No reason to oppose Saeed Bin Suroor's THIRD SET, whose dirt run on his UAE debut looks better than it did at the time and he created a favourable impression returned to turf when winning a competitive C&D handicap with more in hand than the margin suggested last time. He's the one to beat on this first run in Listed company. Solid alternatives are thin on the ground and the pick of those playing for places are Metropolitan Man and Almuraad. [RY]

A straightforward task for Frankie and Third Set - the Spotlight commentary seems to think so.

TAUNTON
430
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Ocean Du Moulin, 11/2 Pacha D´Oudairies, 13/2 This Way, 15/2 Master Overseer, 18/1 Feeling, 20/1 Nothing Is Forever, 25/1 Whitegates Ronnie, 33/1 Levantine, 40/1 Seemarye, 50/1 Loch Vic, Skyler, 66/1 Vehari .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OCEAN DU MOULIN was disappointing on rain-softened ground last time but had been generally progressive before that run, has a clear form advantage and should be very hard to beat back on a sound surface if responding well to a first-time tongue tie. His stablemate, Pacha D’Oudairies, and Master Overseer could be the two to battle for minor honours. [DM]

Yes, Ocean du Moulin has the old "should be very hard to beat" - Ruby on board , top RPR. , postdata selection, 12 of the 13 tips, but disappointed last time out - Mention of a tongue tie here and the hope the horse responds to it leave me preferring to level stakes back the first 4 , Ocean, Pacha, This, and Master to level stakes.
Using standard £10 stakes again, I will stake using the following ratios
£20 at 1.66 on Ocean du Mouilin
£6 at 9.8 on Master Overseer
£7 at 8.2 on Pacha D'oudaires
£7 at 9.2 on This Way
Leaves £6.80 loss on Ocean, and profits of £19, £16.83 and £23 on the other 3 horses

I'm happy to take a small loss on the favourite in the hope he may labour

3 INTO 1 SYSTEM

With Beggars Cap the only winner and Little Wing a multiple handicap winner running again and losing, we need to stem the flow with this system. Highly frustrating for me that a losing run coincides with opening the system up.

250 LUDLOW - BLAEBERRY
320 LUDLOW - FOXSPUR
400 TAUNTON - FARMERS LAD
500 TAUNTON -ABBEY DAYS

The above are my 3 into 1's today - all over the jumps which is not the best, one in a hunter chase ( I'll get me coat!) , one in a handicap chase. Blaeberry is returning from an absence and looks to have a shout with a small field - 2 outsiders and a hint of a price gap.
Foxspur is at a nice 9/4 favouritism currently for Johnson/Hobbs - get your prayer mats out

FOOTBALL
Those who ignored my Samaras no bet boycott would have got the overs in the Celtic match.
Tonight sees 5 games on the coupon at Ladbrokes.
Getafe at home at 11/10 appeals but I think this is the Spanish Cup so is not an ideal betting medium.
Arsenal LAdies v Everton Ladies tonight ,and if tempers flare there REALLY will be handbags at 10 paces. Arsenal ladies are 2/9 to win, the market is not liquid at all making betting choices difficult. Expectation is for goals and I may venture towards the over 3.5 goals with a view to trading only as over 2.5 goals is odds on.
There will be better betting opportunities I am quite sure!

27/2

Fandani won the clash with 3 into1 selection Nikola - it was always going to be one of the 2 and a mechanical system cannot tell you the close proximity of any rival - unless perhaps we include a price gapper element.? Lorikeet was was ridden by an unknown jockey against Josh you are ridden by Kirsty Milsarek, a relatively experienced race rider but with mechanical systems their advantage should be that you do the selection process ,place the bet and leave. It will be interesting to look over past results and see if taking out certain jumps races and obvious iffy bet races can help strike rate.

What the system has bought up in the last few days is very disappointing and in no way reflects its true worth - it's sod law that when I start sharing it, race types , fallers, broken blood vessels all conspire against me. But I'll perservere. I was feeling the same way on 15th January when the same thing happened then we went a month with longest losing run of , I think, 3 .

Good to get Sherrif Roscoe beaten.

Martha was unplaced, but interestingly, I placed my bet at 7am and by kick off the price had gone down in both the place and win markets soo it was a green screen in this maiden.

Stuttgart - no show really - I think it was a cup game and should have done proper research - not really the first team playing I would assume

Juve draw/draw compensated a little

All in all a loss on the day for me as I do back these 3 into 1's against my better judgement in some races as I have personally profitted from the system through Jan and Feb.

245 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 My Valley, 5/1 Melana Star, 8/1 Lady Wright, Saddle Up, 20/1 Naujella Girl, 25/1 Madame Les Jambes, Ring Street Roller, 33/1 Dippy Duck, Lady´s Gesture, Miss Beijing, 50/1 Golden Blossom.

7 over 20/1 -can we dismiss these perceived outsiders? If so ,the race leaves 3 each way candidates and a short price hot pot. The commentary notes that My Valley and Saddle up are from the same stables yet Saddle Up has Ruby Walsh on board. This is too obvious an each way candidate for me and I'll plump with Lady Wright each way - 3rd in betting forecast. Let's hope the outsiders run as their prices indicate.

FOLKSTONE

210
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Lupanar, 11/2 Olympian, 6/1 Award Winner, 12/1 Elliott, 14/1 Anchor Bridge, 20/1 Oponce, Treat Em Mean, 25/1 Cornelia, Noble Minstrel, Postmaster, 33/1 Big Paddy, 50/1 Glandore Moon, 66/1 Top Gear, Zaffarans Scene, 100/1 Quaystone Lady, 150/1 Major Upset .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LUPANAR (nap) did really well on his hurdle debut for this yard recently and is preferred to Olympian, who ran so well on his handicap hurdle debut at Huntingdon last time.[EMW]

A maiden hurdle so immediately I'd be looking at an each way play against the favourite. Only 2 horses below double figure odds and Olympian each way looks ideally placed to compensate should Lupinar not give his running - Spotlight's mention also backs this up

310
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Littleton Aldor, 4/1 Forfeiter, 6/1 Green Gamble, 7/1 Jupon Vert, 8/1 Moonlight Music, Olival, 20/1 A Sea Commander, Signature Tune, 25/1 Batchworth Beau, Orsus, 33/1 Sett Aside .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these find it hard to win and LITTLETON ALDOR, the only one with a win to his name over fences this season, will be hard to beat if he reproduces the form he has been showing at Chepstow this month. Olival could prove most troublesome

Now 11/4 early prices, Littleton Aldor takes my eye because of the "hard to beat ...if" in Spotlight's commentary.
1.79 for the place indicates this is no gimme by any stretch in a typically tricky handicap but is worthy of support

KEMPTON
Nothing appeals

SOUTHWELL
320
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Otarie, 11/4 Tarabaloo, 7/1 Will Exell, 25/1 Homespun Magic, 33/1 Double Money, 40/1 Henbeck Lady, Lucky Find, Redd Ragusa, 50/1 Jollie Abilola .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OTARIE (nap) ran well enough in a better race last time and this looks an ideal opportunity for her to get off the mark. Tarabaloo is the obvious danger.[SR]

Obvious each way play here? Obvious candiate is Tarabaloo - better returns on Will Exell - 1.97 to place and 15.5 to win on betfair - if he places its break even

WOLVERHAMPTON

230
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Wiltshire, 4/1 Decider, Moverra, 6/1 Cape Of Storms, 8/1 Desert Light, Smirfys Systems, 12/1 Rosie Cross, 14/1 Just Spike, 20/1 Bahamian Bay .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wiltshire and DECIDER fought out the finish of a similar event at Kempton last week and with the benefit of that run behind him, and a 6lb pull in the weights, Ron Harris's new inmate is taken to reverse the placings this time. A market move for the ex-Irish Moverra would look significant.[PSm]

3 at 16/1 and over brings the field down to 6 , so,again, each way looks the angle to get in. Cape of storms won last time out, and the price he is quoted at indicates a double is unlikely ( but possible given the favs are 7/2)
I will swerve the obvious each way and will level stakes dutch Wiltshire, Decider and Moverra, the latter mentioned in Spotlight and who has been backed slightly early doors.

500
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Little Wing, 5/1 Bussell Up, 6/1 Upper Class, 9/1 Fathsta, 12/1 Naughty Frida, 16/1 Ten Pole Tudor, 20/1 Ocean Transit, 25/1 Hit The Roof .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little Wing will be popular in his hat-trick bid but this looks a much stiffer assignment than last time and there could be some mileage in taking him on with BUSSELL UP. Stuart Williams' filly has improved with each start to date and a mark of 79 is unlikely to be beyond her in time

Potential price gapper here in Little Wing - BUT he's a horse who has won 2 on the bounce in handicap company. Money has come for Bussel Up early doors and, although 10/3 is not an each way price.

Place only is 1.48 and win is 4.6 so if the horse places you will lose half your win stake.]
In a race where there are 8 runners, 4 of which are 20/1 or bigger, and a favourite who falls into the multiple handicap winner category, Bussell Up looks ideally placed to, well, place at the very least.
I have backed the place and win to the same stake, although if you want to create a break even position, back the win with the potential winnings from the place only bet.

A speculative each way theme today with one dutch. I'm hoping for a slight profit on the day with the potential of really nabbing a big price if horses prove as unpredictable as they have with the 3 into 1 system

3 INTO 1 SYSTEM

2 selections yesterday we could pick holes in - one in a 2 horse race, the other in an apprentice handicap where the jockey was unknown to me, against an experienced race rider in Kirsy Milzarek. I wish I pointed this out yesterday but when I saw the words apprentice handicap, I immediately dismissed the race!

250 Southwell - Beggars Cap - a very short price indeed over the sticks
500 Wolves - Little Wing - has already won twice in handicap company - price suggests he could win again ( like Rapidity and Confidentiality before him) - being a mechanical system, the 3 into 1 does not account for circumstances re race type and potential market rivals like Bussell Up
620 Kempton - Sion Hill - a very competitive handicap - most of the successful 3 into 1 selections previously have been noted by their clear favouritism and prices around evens to 13/8. Currently 7/2 (there's a long time to wait for this race) this is a big p[rice in relative terms for the system -4 horses are in close proximity price wise at 3/1, 9/2, 5/1. Guess what - another apprentice handicap race which I would immediately scratch from a personal perspective but will be rueing if Sion Hill obliges
CONCLUSION
Again not ideal candidates and I certainly wouldn't have selected them, as you can read in the blog, as personal choices. BEggars Cap is too short, Little Wing has already won and faces a challenge from Bussel Up, and Sion Hill appears in a dreaded apprentice handicap - arrrgghh!
But I hope for surprises! (Prayer mat is out as I write)

FOOTY
Yesterday's Stuttgart debacle was in the German D F B pokal - I should have noticed that and swerved the game - I mistakenly thought it was a Bundesliga match - ie something to PLAY FOR!
The value of the questions in Jan's issue!

FA Cup tonight sees Boro at home to Sheffield United. Boro have been impressing of late and their loss at Anfield recently can be put down to stupid errors which simply they paid for! With the Ladbrokes site down, I can't check instantly recent form for both sides so use www.soccerstats.com
The 8/13 tonight does look tempting I must say and I would like to see a strong Boro side on the pitch similar to the side that scored 2 away at Anfield.
Again, as with Juve last night where I profitted well from the draw/draw, I will use the half time/full time market and Boro/Boro ; Draw/boro ; Draw/Draw (as it is the FA Cup)

What'll it be tonight for Celtic - the 5-0 drubbing of September or the 3-2 humbling of December ? Will we see those famous headlines - SuperCaligoballisticCelticareattrocious!
Celtic were very poor indeed against St Mirren away and it took a Nakamura cheat to earn the free kick which he dispatched superbly to gain an 85th minute 1-0.
This win came after a European night where Celtic do suffer hangovers. Tonight they're at home and if McGEady's in the side, they will score.
I will not bet if Samararse is playing as he should be playing Sunday league - he is crap - full stop.
If Samararse is absent then 1.58 for over 2.5 goals looks worthy of investment. As with the weekend game, if Celtic are 0-0 after 70 minutes , they are backable at hugely inflated odds in the match odds market.

So, if Samararse plays, NO BET - he couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo!

With RAngers, we face a team who are away, and know their nearest rivals should beat their opposition at home. Why kind of incentive will this put on Rangers away to Hearts. It is a must win game, but the 8/13 quote shows that this is going to be difficult.
Away at Hearts they lost 4-2 last time, but beat them 2-1 at home.
The last time these 2 met at Hearts there were 8 yellows, so perhaps 9 points or above on the bookings index at 1.72 currently will give us a run for our money? We need 5 yellow cards to profit (2 points per yellow). As a neutral bet, this ensures we have both teams on our side and hopefully a card happy referee!

First goal odds can be backed to level stakes for 1st-10mins, 11-20mins, 21-30 mins, 31-40 mins as the lowest odds are 4.9 - returns increase with time - cue a 1-0 41st minute then!

26/2

Nice profit onWHere's Johnny yesterday - even backing 4 horses can still turn a decent profit andcover certain eventualities as long as the horses run as their prices indicate. Another 3 into 1 system bet undone by jumps racing as Massini Sunset unseated its rider - naturally we don't get this with flat selections as was seen with Morbick. Montjford disappointed in a maiden won by Yes Mr President. Awesome light was unplaced in the maiden and the dutch on the 2 market leaders was the correct choice with hindsght.

Both Mick macmacgoole and Fabulous JEt lost - I didn't lay them alas but didn't back them either.

Yet again Nantes continue their excellent set of results with an away win - I wish I'd put them up

Although the City match was an imponderable for me, I did dabble in the under 2.5 goals market for about 15 minutes - sufficient to back at 1.63 adn lay off at 1.5 and lower for a £30 green screen. Just in time as Everton scored twice meaning the under 2.5 goals price shot up to 4 and over. THe discipline of green screening comes to the fore

CATTERICK

Good to firm - some say that firm ground is as bad as soft regarding its affect on certain horses.

A selling handicap hurdle for lady riders kicks off the card - no thanks!

A totally unappealing card from a betting perspective with a number of wide open races .

LEICESTER

220
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Nikola, 11/8 Fandani, 12/1 Barati, 25/1 Colemanstown, 50/1 Tiffin Deano .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Effectively a match between NIKOLA and Fandani. Preference for Nikola isn't that strong but he has consistently shown a decent level of form over fences this season and, with Fandani needing to show he can hold it together jumping wise, the day may have come for the selection to end his frustrating run of places. [MCu]

Again it would seem that quicker ground may be the sticking point with some horses today.
Potential dutch in the 220 but rewards versus outlay are minimal unless you want to leave a slight loss on the market leader and potentially greater profit onFandani

350

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Sheriff Roscoe, 9/4 Cathedral Rock, 11/2 Double Intruder, 13/2 Burren Legend, 25/1 Desert Tommy, 50/1 Ellies Horse, 100/1 Clockers Corner .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHERIFF ROSCOE (nap) sets a decent standard on his latest C&D form in a slightly better-contested race and, with a hurdles win on good to firm showing the forecast ground should be fine, clearly looks the one to beat. Cathedral Rock is next best.

A 4 horse race at present with 3 we can , I hope, dismiss as perceived outsiders.
"clearly the one to beat" proclaims Spotlight re Sheriff Roscoe - disqualified in his last race. What concerns me is the 2 wins prior to this - have we missed the horse already as a betting proposition?
A 2 mile 7 furlong novices chase on quick ground - Cathedral Rock, Burren legend and double intruder are all backable to level stakes against the favourite who, while I cannot dismiss him out of hand, might have done all his winning already.

LINGFIELD

300

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Fly In Johnny, 4/1 Young Ivanhoe, 5/1 Opus Maximus, 11/2 Martha, 6/1 Big Boom, 7/1 Spic ´n Span, 10/1 Breathe, 20/1 Firespin .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Money for either of the newcomers in what doesn't look to be the strongest of maidens will be significant but this could go to FLY IN JOHNNY, who wasn't at his best when last seen over 5f but who had previously shown ability over this trip and is bred to handle this surface.

No early prices to go on, just what the Racing Post provides. The tips are interesting as they are spread throughout the runners indicating the potential for a speculative each way punt. We have the dead 8 here as I write and with 7 runners priced between 3/1 and 10/1 we can hopefully avoid the obvious and chance a mid division horse. Martha at 11/2 betting forecast price is just outside the top 3 but not priced as an outsider and is worthy , I feel, of each way support.
This is an open maiden so those with a gambling instinct could look at even bigger priced horses in what looks a wide open affair

The cards today are particularly difficult with fancied runners who have had their fair share of wins and who may be slightly vulnerable ( winning sequences always end) Quick ground at Catterick and Leicester, coupled with big fields and 5/1 favs indicate a no betting day really on the horses.
I am even a little concerned that Sherrif Roscoe might win, given the quicker ground may be a hindrance to other horses.

FOOTBALL
ALl lower league stuff domestically with a smattering of German, Italian and Franch football, and it is with Juventus v Torino that I may have an angle into a bet.
Juve have not lost to Torino in their previous 6 encounters. I must say that the head to heads are not really relevant as they go back a number of years and a lot has changed in the interim.

This is a local derby -Juve are not firing on all cylinders but are home tonight. The market has priced them up as 4/7 favourites and it is from the price, more than anything, that I will take my cue. I will chance another venture into the halftime/fulltime market with Juve/Juve ; Draw/Juve; Draw/Draw (as it is a local derby)
I have engineered the bet to break even on the Juve/Juve result and get a nice profit on any other results.
If Torino score to no reply in the first half the bet will be an automatic loser. I'm hoping not.

Stuttgart are at home to Carl Zeiss JEna this evening and the 1/4 quote tells us that a home victory is the most likely outcome - not only that but there should be goals.
Recent results for both sides back this up - Jena have been conceding 2+ goals alarmingly and Stuttgart, especially at home ( Hertha Berlin's win not withstanding) have scored 2+ goals

The market, alas ,agrees with me and has priced up over 2.5 goals at 1.52.
NOTE - this match is not in running so there is no trading opportunity available.
1.52 is reasonable enough and increases the 1.31 available in the match odds market.
It may be worth chancing the Stuttgart/Stuttgart halftime/fulltime at 1.92 - a bigger profit. Personally I always include a cover bet on Draw/Stuttgart but in this case may leave a break even on the latter bet with profit on the Stuttgart double.

The fact there are no head to heads leads me to believe Jena have recently been promoted and their status as 2nd bottom backs this up.

All in all, a leave alone day I think on the horses with, perhaps, the Stuttgart game the only one I have confidence in (yet am reminded that Galatasary lost , when 1/8 to win, to a bottom placed side at the weekend so we can't discount anything!)

25/2

Like Rapidity and Confidentiality before, multiple handaicap winners on the flat can come in again.This becomes more difficult,with Macmar,when they have to run in a handicap over obstacles and 2 miles 7 furlongs.
We see the problem with mechanical systems.You have to follow a cerain set of rules for convenience sake,even though you wouldn't have backed the horse under normal circumstances.
Macmar was a 3into 1 selection yesterday and found the penalty far too tough for him.
hThe Gold MEdallist/Rustarix bet came off. Oscar Park won justifying Spotlight's strong confidence in him. See you sometime unplaced, outdone by those perceived outsiders-and this in a race paying out 3 the place for 5 runners!
I was right not to bet J'y vole yesterday-one race too many for her on a track which did not suit her habit of jumping out to the right.
Thank God for the left foot of Nakamura as he scored for Celtic in the 85th minute. Those with faith, andknowledge that Celtic have done thisbefore,could have backed them at nearly 4/1 to win -not bad for a 1/3 side. They did exactly the same against Gretna .
I was very pleased to get the unquoted score bet in the RAngers game-only a few minutes to go and the prayer mat was out for Rangers to get a 4th-I had resigned myself to defeat only to check a few moments later at the 4-2 scoreline-happy days.
Galatasary-what a bunch of muppets -at home to the bottom side, 1/8and lose 1-0-worse still they scuppered the mug punter acca the bar stewards!

HEREFORD
A couple to note in Fabulous Jet and Mickmacmagoogle today at Hereford but I won't back them (or lay them either!)

PLUMPTON
220
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Fix The Rib, 3/1 Canalturn, 9/2 Wheres Johnny, 11/2 Derry City, 14/1 Fortification, Royal Arms, 20/1 Dynamic Rhythm, Mustamad, 33/1 Coast Of Malabar .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FIX THE RIB and Canalturn look the pick of this field with marginal preference for Gary Moore's runner now he's upped in trip.[EMW]

A level stakes on the front 3 looks worthy of support although Derry City is there for all to see at 11/2. Decent returns on Wheres Johnny and Canalturn with small returns on Fix the rib.

The inclusion of Derry City is possiblein the following way(at prices at time of writing)
WheresJohnny-4.7 STAKE £10 PROFIT £13
Fix the Rib-3.5 STAKE £10PROFIT £1
Canalturn-4.4 STAKE £10PROFIT £10
DERRY City-8.2 STAKE £4LOSS £1.20

Now watch as Fortification romps home!

320
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Massini Sunset, 5/1 High Tech Made, Noble Bily, 7/1 Clyffe Hanger, Peut Etre Sivola, 12/1 Silver Serg, 14/1 Buckland Gold, 16/1 Single Player .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MASSINI SUNSET has two wins and a big-priced third to his name in three starts for today's jockey and, while 20lb higher than at the turn of the year, he's only back to the mark off which he made his handicap debut over hurdles and is still on just 88. Better can be expected of Clyffe Hanger down in trip if he puts in a decent round.[GW]

Potential price gapper,but as with Macmar - a horse in a handicap over jumps with a 20lb rise since the start of the year.
TOP RPR, TOPSPEED, good price gap to the next,12 of 13 tipsters - today's jockey has won on him,

The straight 8 means those who think this may be one too many can take an each way option in the hope of bigger returns. I will place back Massini Sunset at an unappealing 1.31.

WOLVES

310
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Might Be Magic, 7/4 Nags To Riches, 7/2 Awesome Light, 14/1 Crystal Spirit, 20/1 Lawton, Woodland Mist, 66/1 Me No Puppet, 100/1 Majestic Issue .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary maiden which can go to NAGS TO RICHES who caught a tartar at Southwell last time. Might Be Magic and Awesome Light are the obvious threats.[AC]

A maiden and the market tells us that, at 7/4 the front 2, this should chiefly concern Might be magic and NAgs to Riches. All horses have had a run previously so there's no superstar debutant to pop home at 33/1! One thing to be wary of is the number in the fieldwho have only had the one outing and can be expected to improve with experience.

That said, if we look strictly at the prices, then this will concern 3 horses with the 2 at 7/4 being the most likely.
There are 2 ways into this race .Dutch to level stakes Nags to Riches and Might be MAgic, or back Aswome Light each way in the hope he places at least BUT may suprise if the front 2 consent not to run to their prices.
The biggest pay out will be on Awsome light to place at 1.9. I will transfer some of the potential winnings from the place onto the win only market as the horse is 7 at present. If he places ,we profit marginally and get our stakes back. If he wins, its big payout!. At time of writing the market is not fully formed so I expect Awsome Light to be showing better prices later in the day

THE 3 INTO 1 SYSTEM
240 WOLVES - Morbick
320 PLUMPTON - Massini Sunset - see above for personal opinion
510 Wolves - Montjford -very short odds and Yes Mr President there incase he doesn't win





FOOTY

Undone by Galatasary yesterday with the mug punter acca.
Tonight sees one of the French teams I follow in Nantes away to Sedan but the market can't split the sides.(incidentally Getafe,the Spanish side I follow ,beat Real MAdrid on their patch last night -a horrendous losing run for Real which must be corrected soon so watch out!)
MK Dons face Swansea and again the market is telling us nothing.Ditto with Man City v Everton.
A no bet today in the footy.There is no real angle in.

A quietish day with some unspectacular returning bets