1 march

Laureldean Melody a very frustrating 4th for each way backers. Josh you are came 3rd which was very welcome for a horse backed off the boards who I decided to oppose. Hope you notices the wrong bet in the Nantes game - Nantes /Draw should have read Draw/Nantes - I personally included the draw/draw break even and managed to break even - there was just that niggle that winning sequences do come to an end
3 into 1's are improving slowly - Randwick Roar at a good9/4 and Ben BAcchus 11/10 - incidentally 2 of the systems used created 7 winners between then yesterday - as I said "ye horse racing gods, why do you mock me so!"

I predict the cards today will be rather uninspiring with Cheltenham on the horizon

DONCASTER
ANother busy Saturday wen the obvious tend to slip up

300
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Schinken Otto, 9/4 Ela Re, 5/2 Salhood, 12/1 Chaninbar, 14/1 Polished .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This weak handicap can go to SCHINKEN OTTO, who has been in good form on the AW since last seen chasing. Ela Re can follow him home.[AC]

A 3 horse race as far as the prices are concerned. backing all 3 for , for example, £10 level stakes ,gives a £3 return on each.With the opponents to Scinken otto so close in price, perhaps backing Ela re and Salhood to the exclusion of the market leader ( effectively laying the market leaders) can boost returns?
KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Working Title, 7/2 I Have Dreamed, 8/1 Outaouais, 10/1 Into The Wild, Noticeable, 20/1 Danger Zone, 25/1 Haddaaf, 33/1 Atomic Winner, 66/1 My Beautaful .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to be between the Cheltenham entries Working Title and I HAVE DREAMED, and there is a danger of Gary Moore's charge being underestimated following his defeat last time in a race that was not run to suit him

A good opportunity to back Working Title and I have dreamed to level stakes leaving a nice profit on I have dreamed and slight loss on fav. you can dutch both to equal profit if you want but I prefer this type of bet

NAVAN
530
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Time Electric, 5/1 Limestone Cowboy, 7/1 Judge Roy Bean, 8/1 Forty Foot, 10/1 Picture This, The Thirsty Bricky, 12/1 Flora May, Nor People, 16/1 Matter Of Interest, 20/1 Albert Accord, Give Us A Hand, Iwilltellyouwhen, 25/1 Beneficial Banks, 50/1 Gothenberg Double, 66/1 Spinning Breeze .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIME ELECTRIC delivered on a strong home-reputation when winning in commanding fashion on his debut at Leopardstown and is bound to be a warm order in view of his position in the ante-post market for Cheltenham up to the point of the announcement that he is to be aimed at Punchestown instead. The manner in which he took control of the race suggests he could be a very good horse, and the strong visual impression more than outweighs the fact that the form has not been franked.

Price gap evident - i AM TAKEN BY THE spOTLIGHT COMMENTARY , but AS YOU CAN SEE, IT'S A BIG FIELD AND A BUMPER TO BOOT (sorry caps lock locked!)
I will chance Time Electric to fulfil reputation and monitor th back bet in running

NEWBURY
135
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Cryptic, 11/4 Aux Le Bahnn, 12/1 Pharanto, 20/1 Rebel Rock, 25/1 Geneva Bay, 28/1 Posh Dude, 33/1 R´Cam .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to see beyond CRYPTIC despite the big penalty, as this looks an easier assignment than when a clearcut winner in quite a well-contested race at Wincanton last time. Aux le Bahnn is easily the biggest danger.

Aux le Bahnn is an obvious each way bet

3 into 1 SYSTEM
Some semblance of a return yesterday
340 KELSO - Magic Sky
325 KEMPTON - Stellenbosch
400 KEMPTON - Classic fiddle
135 NEWBURY - Cryptic
750 WOLVES - Ninth House

FOOTY
First game of interest is the Hibs v Celtic game - Celtic bounced back after a poor away performance against St mirren. This is a MUST WIN game for Celtic and with that in mind Celtic are worth backing at 4/6 to trade if they score first.
This is going to be a tough one for Celtic but is worth an interest despite the market saying this is no gimme
Hibs have done the double at their ground and perhaps a neutral bet of over 2.5 goals to trade may also be worth an interest as there is certainly goals and a probalbe scoreline of 2-1 (but to who?) is probably likely

Schalke v Bayern at the top of the Bundesliga, and if in running I will be entertaining an under 2.5 goal trade for the first 20 minutes or so of the match

Arsenal at home look layable to these eyes at 8/15 against a Villa side on a roll. Still struck down with a variety of injuries the 8/15 quote tells us like the Celtic game) this is likely to be decided by the single goal . Perhaps this could be an angle in to the winning margin 0 and 1 goal dutch ( if that market is available)

I will lay Brum today at home. Spurs are on a high and will look for revenge after going down at home to Brum last time. Again, Brum really have proved dogged at home but may not win , and could draw.

Fulham lost to the Arse 3-0 on their manor - can we expect the same today with an equivalent team in Man Utd?
Another venture into half time\Full tim Man Utd/Man Utd ; Draw/Man Utd can help enhance the match odds 1.38. You may want to include draw/draw given Fulham NEED to win.
Brian MCBRide is back in the Fulham team and 7.6 is a speculative price for him to score.
Again we can back Rooney and Ronny to score at 2.08 and 2.22 to level stakes - break even if one scores , happy days if they both score.

Newcastle at 6/4 are once again layable in the match odds market - the key here is to hope Blackburn score so that 6/4 will rise sharply. Could be another poor day for the Messiah!
Again monitor in running to trade off

Rangers v Aberdeen - while Rangers are in the mood, a speculative punt on over 3.5 goals will retain an interest and allow flexibility in trading should Rangers score 2 early

Real MAdrid in turmoil - on a bit of a losing run in all competitiions and losing at home to Getafe will not do. Worthy of interest at 4/5 away to Recreativo to break this losing sequence. Over 2.5 goals , judging by past expereince, could be a good tradeable bet

FAr too many football bets today that I will prune as the day progresses.

29/2

Slight profit on Mias Boy yesterday at Lingfield.Dhhamaan won for a break even .The top 4 in the betting at Betfair were not the same as those I gave -why? Well Stoneacre Sarah was 12/1 in the betting forecast punted into 7/2 - you guessed it -a 16/1 system bet and won well. Beauchamp oracle placed for each way backers. Familiar territory placed - Curlin was never going to mess that up!
Break even on Cocoa BEach winning and Third Set won for Frankie at Nad al Sheeba.Nice win on Paca D'oudairies at Taunton taking te early prices on BEtfair as I did ensured I got a good price relative to the price the horse went off at.
3 into 1's began well wit Blaeberry and Farmers Lad winning. Abbey Days was positioned price wise to win te hunter hase but unseated his rider as happens over jumps and especiall when you don't have a professional on board
Getafe won well -3-1 at home and the 11/10 looked decent in this Spanish Cup game. Well, watching the Arsenal ladies reminded me of better times at 10am on a Sunday with 10 hungover team mates trying to et it together to play 11 a side - not the best quality football I've ever witnessed and definitely not , in the future, a betting medium at all!

DONCASTER
200
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Overbranch, 2/1 Aimigayle, 6/1 Laureldean Melody, 14/1 Cute N You Know It, Hapeney, Mistress To No One, 20/1 Calow Green, 25/1 Red Letter Girl, 33/1 Roll Of Drums .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Overbranch is a progressive sort who should go well, despite the double penalty. However she may be more effective with more give underfoot and is taken on with AIMIGAYLE, who turned in her best effort over hurdles last time. Although down in trip, this galloping course should suit.[RY]
Chance of an each way bet here on Laureldean Melody given Spotlight's comment about the double penalty on the fav which may push the horse out of the win only reckoning?

DUNDALK
The Irish flat season kicks off today
Some maybe bets but I am blinded without the betting markets especially as some horses are returning after a break

WOLVES
325
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Josh You Are, 5/1 Bugsy´s Boy, 6/1 Salut Saint Cloud, 13/2 Easibet Dot Net, 7/1 Kanisorn, 10/1 Sovietta, 14/1 Phone Call, Rainbow Dash, 20/1 Arabian Sun, Market Watcher, 25/1 Indian Star, 33/1 Riff Raff, 50/1 Allez Melina .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few with chances but JOSH YOU ARE and Kirsty Milczarek gelled well at Lingfield earlier this week and, off the same mark, will surely make a bold bid to follow up. Easibet Dot Net, who found trouble in a slowly run affair here last time, could prove most troublesome
Perhaps Josh you are is layable in this race. What Spotlight didn't tell us was the race he won was an apprentice riders handicap against Little Wing who was ridden very naively.

This is a lay to back at a higher price in running

A quiet nday for me on the horses

3 INTO 1
Should have been 3 from 4 yesterday, but another unseated rider.
415 DONCASTER - RANDWICK ROAR
650 KEMPTON - HOLLOW JO
920 KEMPTON - BEN BACCHUS
250 WOLVES - ONE NIGHT IN PARIS

RAndwick Roar is under a penalty, Ben Bacchus is in a race described by Spotlight as only for the needy and greedy. One night in Paris is ,yes, a multiple handicap winner appearing again under a penalty. Oh ye racing Gods-why do you mock me so?


FOOTBALL
Nantes can continue their impressive run of late at home this evening although 2/7 is not giving much away - half ime fulltim Nantes/Nantes ; Nantes/Draw may enhance returns although I am wary that their good run will end soon

28/2

Your grandchildren will one day ask "Grampa,do you remember where you were when Georgios Samaras scored a goal?" - unbelievable scenes! Rangers and Hearts decided to behave themselves with only 2 yellow cards - 1st goal came in the 25th minute for the first goal odds dutch. The Racing Post proved invaluable yesterday in telling us about Hearts' injury scares which made the 8/13 about Rangers even more enticing - so bear that in mind - any snippets of information that can alter your opinions is worth taking on board.

Draw/Draw full time was the most profitable result with the Boro match.

Elsewhere we we so near a bumper payout on Lady Wright - trading at 1.72 I could have greened the screen for a £37 profit instead of holding out of a £68 payout for a £5 stake but the horse emptied out but still placed. Olympian didn't place ,neither did Littleton Aldor - the 1.79 was spot on for the place only market in telling us this was no given. You would have got a return on the more obvious Tarabaloo instead of Will Excell but with the latter we could put on smaller stakes for a potential bigger return.

The Wolves dutch came off. and we were right to oppose Little Wing ,but Bussell Up only placed.

3 into 1 continues to select inappropriate races , and Sion Hill, although winning, wasn't a 3 into 1 selection - bloody typical!. Beggars Cap won at a silly price. You may be wondering why I keep faith in it - well its because the profits prior to trialling the system out in the open were superb

You see the value of personal opinion over mechanical systems though, but I do appreciate the importance of mechanical systems for those who want to bet and go.

LINGFIELD
210

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Count Ceprano, 100/30 Best One, 7/2 Mia´s Boy, 5/1 Seneschal, 8/1 Trivia, 12/1 Paraguay ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Count Ceprano has rediscovered winning form recently but this small field should play to the strengths of SENESCHAL. Top weight Mia’s Boy is worth noting in the market

The defection of Count Cyprano has left the 3 market leaders currently priced at 3.15, 3.3 and 3.95 - all backable to level stakes - staking of £9, £10, £10 will create a slight loss on the best one, £3.80 profit on Mias Boy, and equivalent evens return on Seneschal
Beware - apprentice handicap!Only 2 other horses enter the equation and cannot be dismissed because of the race type but probability wise we are covering the 3 most likely

240
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dhhamaan, 2/1 Wee Buns, 5/1 Llab Nala, 10/1 Mileaminutemurphy, 12/1 Racie Gracie .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop in grade and trip looks just the ticket for DHHAMAAN who can add to his C&D win back in November under Hayley Turner.[AC]

I like these bets - level stakes on Dhhamaan and Wee Bunns produces virtual break even on Dhamaan and nice profit on Wee Bunns. At current prices, Llab Nala is the fly in the ointment.

340
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Stoneacre Chris, 5/2 Capriccioso, 7/2 Allium, 12/1 Rightcar Dominic, Stoneacre Sarah, 20/1 Gelert, Stoneacre Paddy, 25/1 Sevenovus, 33/1 Stoneacre Ma ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Peter Grayson is mob-handed here as he was when his outsider Stoneacre Pat beat STONEACRE CHRIS in a similar event over C&D earlier this month, with Allium and Capriccioso among those behind. With that experience under her belt, Stoneacre Chris should be able to confirm her superiority in a race that looks no stronger.[

I would think Peter Grayson has a great chance of winning this. 8 of the 10 runners are his!

We can level stakes back the top 4 here in Stoneacre Chris, Allium, Rightcar Dominic and Capriccioso to the following stakes ratios
£12, £12,£12,£9 on current betfair prices of 4.5, 4.4, 4.3, 7.2

produces profits of £12, £10.26, £9.12, £1.14
Prices indicate Stoneacre Paddy as the one who will muck it all up
BEWARE - 5 furlong maiden!

We are though covering the most likely winners in a race where 4 horses are priced 25/1 or over. The X FILES fans will perhaps see a Peter Grayson conspiracy - let the 50/1 shot win !

LUDLOW
450
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Red Brook Lad, 15/8 General Alarm, 7/2 Beauchamp Oracle, 10/1 Lost Time, 20/1 Wings Of Hope, 25/1 Over Bridge, 33/1 Lord Youky, 50/1 Snitton Salvo .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RED BROOK LAD holds Beauchamp Oracle on a couple of clashes during 2007 and his will to win remains stronger than ever judged on his near miss in a Dorset point earlier this month. General Alarm is a danger, though, especially if left alone up front.

A hunters chase - not the best betting medium, but for those willing to try and eek out a profit, we have 2 angles - each way on Beauchamp oracle or level stakes bets on Bed BRook Lad and General Alarm
I'll go down the each way route on BEauchamp oracle given the surpises that can occur in hunter chases

NAD AL SHEEBA
515
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Curlin, 4/1 Familiar Territory, 14/1 Engrupido, Imperialista, 33/1 Jet Express, 50/1 Arqaam .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The eagerly awaited UAE debut of last year's US Horse Of The Year CURLIN and, although he's unlikely to be at peak fitness on this first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Classic in October, it'll be a huge surprise if he is beaten in a race where all his rivals are upwards of 6lb out of the handicap. Pick of the remainder is Familiar Territory, who won with a bit in hand over C&D last time and is lightly raced enough to be open to further improvement.

Fav coming back ater 100+ days off. 6 runners -obvious each way candiate familiar territory - ready to pounce if Curlin doesn't give his running

615
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Cocoa Beach, 7/4 Fiesta Lady, 10/1 Classy-Lady, 20/1 Love Dancing, 25/1 Love Of Dubai, Olympic Glory, 33/1 Patio, Star Of Rosanna, 50/1 Dalkey Girl, 100/1 Miss Clonyn, Swallow Star .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor, who has won four of the seven runnings of the UAE Oaks, has a very strong hand with COCOA BEACH and Fiesta Lady and it's the former that gets the nod. The visor and the step up to 1m enabled her to reverse previous placings with her stablemate in the UAE 1000 Guineas and this longer trip should enable her to confirm that form. The only real concern is whether the headgear will work as well again. Argentinian Oaks winner Fiesta Lady will go very close if back to her best while the best each-way shot could be Bin Suroor's Love Dancing, who should be suited by this trip.[RY]

Godolphin saddle the 2 market principles - level stakes leaves near break even on Cocoa Beach and near evens profit on Fiesta Lady.
I wouldn't be swayed into backing the odds on shot - both market leaders are equally capable.

645
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Third Set, 13/2 Law Lord, 10/1 Metropolitan Man, Pride Of Nation, 12/1 Almuraad, Golden Arrow, 14/1 Albabilia, 25/1 Crossing, 33/1 Beckermet, 66/1 The Pirate ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No reason to oppose Saeed Bin Suroor's THIRD SET, whose dirt run on his UAE debut looks better than it did at the time and he created a favourable impression returned to turf when winning a competitive C&D handicap with more in hand than the margin suggested last time. He's the one to beat on this first run in Listed company. Solid alternatives are thin on the ground and the pick of those playing for places are Metropolitan Man and Almuraad. [RY]

A straightforward task for Frankie and Third Set - the Spotlight commentary seems to think so.

TAUNTON
430
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Ocean Du Moulin, 11/2 Pacha D´Oudairies, 13/2 This Way, 15/2 Master Overseer, 18/1 Feeling, 20/1 Nothing Is Forever, 25/1 Whitegates Ronnie, 33/1 Levantine, 40/1 Seemarye, 50/1 Loch Vic, Skyler, 66/1 Vehari .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OCEAN DU MOULIN was disappointing on rain-softened ground last time but had been generally progressive before that run, has a clear form advantage and should be very hard to beat back on a sound surface if responding well to a first-time tongue tie. His stablemate, Pacha D’Oudairies, and Master Overseer could be the two to battle for minor honours. [DM]

Yes, Ocean du Moulin has the old "should be very hard to beat" - Ruby on board , top RPR. , postdata selection, 12 of the 13 tips, but disappointed last time out - Mention of a tongue tie here and the hope the horse responds to it leave me preferring to level stakes back the first 4 , Ocean, Pacha, This, and Master to level stakes.
Using standard £10 stakes again, I will stake using the following ratios
£20 at 1.66 on Ocean du Mouilin
£6 at 9.8 on Master Overseer
£7 at 8.2 on Pacha D'oudaires
£7 at 9.2 on This Way
Leaves £6.80 loss on Ocean, and profits of £19, £16.83 and £23 on the other 3 horses

I'm happy to take a small loss on the favourite in the hope he may labour

3 INTO 1 SYSTEM

With Beggars Cap the only winner and Little Wing a multiple handicap winner running again and losing, we need to stem the flow with this system. Highly frustrating for me that a losing run coincides with opening the system up.

250 LUDLOW - BLAEBERRY
320 LUDLOW - FOXSPUR
400 TAUNTON - FARMERS LAD
500 TAUNTON -ABBEY DAYS

The above are my 3 into 1's today - all over the jumps which is not the best, one in a hunter chase ( I'll get me coat!) , one in a handicap chase. Blaeberry is returning from an absence and looks to have a shout with a small field - 2 outsiders and a hint of a price gap.
Foxspur is at a nice 9/4 favouritism currently for Johnson/Hobbs - get your prayer mats out

FOOTBALL
Those who ignored my Samaras no bet boycott would have got the overs in the Celtic match.
Tonight sees 5 games on the coupon at Ladbrokes.
Getafe at home at 11/10 appeals but I think this is the Spanish Cup so is not an ideal betting medium.
Arsenal LAdies v Everton Ladies tonight ,and if tempers flare there REALLY will be handbags at 10 paces. Arsenal ladies are 2/9 to win, the market is not liquid at all making betting choices difficult. Expectation is for goals and I may venture towards the over 3.5 goals with a view to trading only as over 2.5 goals is odds on.
There will be better betting opportunities I am quite sure!

27/2

Fandani won the clash with 3 into1 selection Nikola - it was always going to be one of the 2 and a mechanical system cannot tell you the close proximity of any rival - unless perhaps we include a price gapper element.? Lorikeet was was ridden by an unknown jockey against Josh you are ridden by Kirsty Milsarek, a relatively experienced race rider but with mechanical systems their advantage should be that you do the selection process ,place the bet and leave. It will be interesting to look over past results and see if taking out certain jumps races and obvious iffy bet races can help strike rate.

What the system has bought up in the last few days is very disappointing and in no way reflects its true worth - it's sod law that when I start sharing it, race types , fallers, broken blood vessels all conspire against me. But I'll perservere. I was feeling the same way on 15th January when the same thing happened then we went a month with longest losing run of , I think, 3 .

Good to get Sherrif Roscoe beaten.

Martha was unplaced, but interestingly, I placed my bet at 7am and by kick off the price had gone down in both the place and win markets soo it was a green screen in this maiden.

Stuttgart - no show really - I think it was a cup game and should have done proper research - not really the first team playing I would assume

Juve draw/draw compensated a little

All in all a loss on the day for me as I do back these 3 into 1's against my better judgement in some races as I have personally profitted from the system through Jan and Feb.

245 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 My Valley, 5/1 Melana Star, 8/1 Lady Wright, Saddle Up, 20/1 Naujella Girl, 25/1 Madame Les Jambes, Ring Street Roller, 33/1 Dippy Duck, Lady´s Gesture, Miss Beijing, 50/1 Golden Blossom.

7 over 20/1 -can we dismiss these perceived outsiders? If so ,the race leaves 3 each way candidates and a short price hot pot. The commentary notes that My Valley and Saddle up are from the same stables yet Saddle Up has Ruby Walsh on board. This is too obvious an each way candidate for me and I'll plump with Lady Wright each way - 3rd in betting forecast. Let's hope the outsiders run as their prices indicate.

FOLKSTONE

210
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Lupanar, 11/2 Olympian, 6/1 Award Winner, 12/1 Elliott, 14/1 Anchor Bridge, 20/1 Oponce, Treat Em Mean, 25/1 Cornelia, Noble Minstrel, Postmaster, 33/1 Big Paddy, 50/1 Glandore Moon, 66/1 Top Gear, Zaffarans Scene, 100/1 Quaystone Lady, 150/1 Major Upset .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LUPANAR (nap) did really well on his hurdle debut for this yard recently and is preferred to Olympian, who ran so well on his handicap hurdle debut at Huntingdon last time.[EMW]

A maiden hurdle so immediately I'd be looking at an each way play against the favourite. Only 2 horses below double figure odds and Olympian each way looks ideally placed to compensate should Lupinar not give his running - Spotlight's mention also backs this up

310
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Littleton Aldor, 4/1 Forfeiter, 6/1 Green Gamble, 7/1 Jupon Vert, 8/1 Moonlight Music, Olival, 20/1 A Sea Commander, Signature Tune, 25/1 Batchworth Beau, Orsus, 33/1 Sett Aside .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these find it hard to win and LITTLETON ALDOR, the only one with a win to his name over fences this season, will be hard to beat if he reproduces the form he has been showing at Chepstow this month. Olival could prove most troublesome

Now 11/4 early prices, Littleton Aldor takes my eye because of the "hard to beat ...if" in Spotlight's commentary.
1.79 for the place indicates this is no gimme by any stretch in a typically tricky handicap but is worthy of support

KEMPTON
Nothing appeals

SOUTHWELL
320
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Otarie, 11/4 Tarabaloo, 7/1 Will Exell, 25/1 Homespun Magic, 33/1 Double Money, 40/1 Henbeck Lady, Lucky Find, Redd Ragusa, 50/1 Jollie Abilola .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OTARIE (nap) ran well enough in a better race last time and this looks an ideal opportunity for her to get off the mark. Tarabaloo is the obvious danger.[SR]

Obvious each way play here? Obvious candiate is Tarabaloo - better returns on Will Exell - 1.97 to place and 15.5 to win on betfair - if he places its break even

WOLVERHAMPTON

230
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Wiltshire, 4/1 Decider, Moverra, 6/1 Cape Of Storms, 8/1 Desert Light, Smirfys Systems, 12/1 Rosie Cross, 14/1 Just Spike, 20/1 Bahamian Bay .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wiltshire and DECIDER fought out the finish of a similar event at Kempton last week and with the benefit of that run behind him, and a 6lb pull in the weights, Ron Harris's new inmate is taken to reverse the placings this time. A market move for the ex-Irish Moverra would look significant.[PSm]

3 at 16/1 and over brings the field down to 6 , so,again, each way looks the angle to get in. Cape of storms won last time out, and the price he is quoted at indicates a double is unlikely ( but possible given the favs are 7/2)
I will swerve the obvious each way and will level stakes dutch Wiltshire, Decider and Moverra, the latter mentioned in Spotlight and who has been backed slightly early doors.

500
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Little Wing, 5/1 Bussell Up, 6/1 Upper Class, 9/1 Fathsta, 12/1 Naughty Frida, 16/1 Ten Pole Tudor, 20/1 Ocean Transit, 25/1 Hit The Roof .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little Wing will be popular in his hat-trick bid but this looks a much stiffer assignment than last time and there could be some mileage in taking him on with BUSSELL UP. Stuart Williams' filly has improved with each start to date and a mark of 79 is unlikely to be beyond her in time

Potential price gapper here in Little Wing - BUT he's a horse who has won 2 on the bounce in handicap company. Money has come for Bussel Up early doors and, although 10/3 is not an each way price.

Place only is 1.48 and win is 4.6 so if the horse places you will lose half your win stake.]
In a race where there are 8 runners, 4 of which are 20/1 or bigger, and a favourite who falls into the multiple handicap winner category, Bussell Up looks ideally placed to, well, place at the very least.
I have backed the place and win to the same stake, although if you want to create a break even position, back the win with the potential winnings from the place only bet.

A speculative each way theme today with one dutch. I'm hoping for a slight profit on the day with the potential of really nabbing a big price if horses prove as unpredictable as they have with the 3 into 1 system

3 INTO 1 SYSTEM

2 selections yesterday we could pick holes in - one in a 2 horse race, the other in an apprentice handicap where the jockey was unknown to me, against an experienced race rider in Kirsy Milzarek. I wish I pointed this out yesterday but when I saw the words apprentice handicap, I immediately dismissed the race!

250 Southwell - Beggars Cap - a very short price indeed over the sticks
500 Wolves - Little Wing - has already won twice in handicap company - price suggests he could win again ( like Rapidity and Confidentiality before him) - being a mechanical system, the 3 into 1 does not account for circumstances re race type and potential market rivals like Bussell Up
620 Kempton - Sion Hill - a very competitive handicap - most of the successful 3 into 1 selections previously have been noted by their clear favouritism and prices around evens to 13/8. Currently 7/2 (there's a long time to wait for this race) this is a big p[rice in relative terms for the system -4 horses are in close proximity price wise at 3/1, 9/2, 5/1. Guess what - another apprentice handicap race which I would immediately scratch from a personal perspective but will be rueing if Sion Hill obliges
CONCLUSION
Again not ideal candidates and I certainly wouldn't have selected them, as you can read in the blog, as personal choices. BEggars Cap is too short, Little Wing has already won and faces a challenge from Bussel Up, and Sion Hill appears in a dreaded apprentice handicap - arrrgghh!
But I hope for surprises! (Prayer mat is out as I write)

FOOTY
Yesterday's Stuttgart debacle was in the German D F B pokal - I should have noticed that and swerved the game - I mistakenly thought it was a Bundesliga match - ie something to PLAY FOR!
The value of the questions in Jan's issue!

FA Cup tonight sees Boro at home to Sheffield United. Boro have been impressing of late and their loss at Anfield recently can be put down to stupid errors which simply they paid for! With the Ladbrokes site down, I can't check instantly recent form for both sides so use www.soccerstats.com
The 8/13 tonight does look tempting I must say and I would like to see a strong Boro side on the pitch similar to the side that scored 2 away at Anfield.
Again, as with Juve last night where I profitted well from the draw/draw, I will use the half time/full time market and Boro/Boro ; Draw/boro ; Draw/Draw (as it is the FA Cup)

What'll it be tonight for Celtic - the 5-0 drubbing of September or the 3-2 humbling of December ? Will we see those famous headlines - SuperCaligoballisticCelticareattrocious!
Celtic were very poor indeed against St Mirren away and it took a Nakamura cheat to earn the free kick which he dispatched superbly to gain an 85th minute 1-0.
This win came after a European night where Celtic do suffer hangovers. Tonight they're at home and if McGEady's in the side, they will score.
I will not bet if Samararse is playing as he should be playing Sunday league - he is crap - full stop.
If Samararse is absent then 1.58 for over 2.5 goals looks worthy of investment. As with the weekend game, if Celtic are 0-0 after 70 minutes , they are backable at hugely inflated odds in the match odds market.

So, if Samararse plays, NO BET - he couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo!

With RAngers, we face a team who are away, and know their nearest rivals should beat their opposition at home. Why kind of incentive will this put on Rangers away to Hearts. It is a must win game, but the 8/13 quote shows that this is going to be difficult.
Away at Hearts they lost 4-2 last time, but beat them 2-1 at home.
The last time these 2 met at Hearts there were 8 yellows, so perhaps 9 points or above on the bookings index at 1.72 currently will give us a run for our money? We need 5 yellow cards to profit (2 points per yellow). As a neutral bet, this ensures we have both teams on our side and hopefully a card happy referee!

First goal odds can be backed to level stakes for 1st-10mins, 11-20mins, 21-30 mins, 31-40 mins as the lowest odds are 4.9 - returns increase with time - cue a 1-0 41st minute then!

26/2

Nice profit onWHere's Johnny yesterday - even backing 4 horses can still turn a decent profit andcover certain eventualities as long as the horses run as their prices indicate. Another 3 into 1 system bet undone by jumps racing as Massini Sunset unseated its rider - naturally we don't get this with flat selections as was seen with Morbick. Montjford disappointed in a maiden won by Yes Mr President. Awesome light was unplaced in the maiden and the dutch on the 2 market leaders was the correct choice with hindsght.

Both Mick macmacgoole and Fabulous JEt lost - I didn't lay them alas but didn't back them either.

Yet again Nantes continue their excellent set of results with an away win - I wish I'd put them up

Although the City match was an imponderable for me, I did dabble in the under 2.5 goals market for about 15 minutes - sufficient to back at 1.63 adn lay off at 1.5 and lower for a £30 green screen. Just in time as Everton scored twice meaning the under 2.5 goals price shot up to 4 and over. THe discipline of green screening comes to the fore

CATTERICK

Good to firm - some say that firm ground is as bad as soft regarding its affect on certain horses.

A selling handicap hurdle for lady riders kicks off the card - no thanks!

A totally unappealing card from a betting perspective with a number of wide open races .

LEICESTER

220
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Nikola, 11/8 Fandani, 12/1 Barati, 25/1 Colemanstown, 50/1 Tiffin Deano .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Effectively a match between NIKOLA and Fandani. Preference for Nikola isn't that strong but he has consistently shown a decent level of form over fences this season and, with Fandani needing to show he can hold it together jumping wise, the day may have come for the selection to end his frustrating run of places. [MCu]

Again it would seem that quicker ground may be the sticking point with some horses today.
Potential dutch in the 220 but rewards versus outlay are minimal unless you want to leave a slight loss on the market leader and potentially greater profit onFandani

350

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Sheriff Roscoe, 9/4 Cathedral Rock, 11/2 Double Intruder, 13/2 Burren Legend, 25/1 Desert Tommy, 50/1 Ellies Horse, 100/1 Clockers Corner .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHERIFF ROSCOE (nap) sets a decent standard on his latest C&D form in a slightly better-contested race and, with a hurdles win on good to firm showing the forecast ground should be fine, clearly looks the one to beat. Cathedral Rock is next best.

A 4 horse race at present with 3 we can , I hope, dismiss as perceived outsiders.
"clearly the one to beat" proclaims Spotlight re Sheriff Roscoe - disqualified in his last race. What concerns me is the 2 wins prior to this - have we missed the horse already as a betting proposition?
A 2 mile 7 furlong novices chase on quick ground - Cathedral Rock, Burren legend and double intruder are all backable to level stakes against the favourite who, while I cannot dismiss him out of hand, might have done all his winning already.

LINGFIELD

300

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Fly In Johnny, 4/1 Young Ivanhoe, 5/1 Opus Maximus, 11/2 Martha, 6/1 Big Boom, 7/1 Spic ´n Span, 10/1 Breathe, 20/1 Firespin .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Money for either of the newcomers in what doesn't look to be the strongest of maidens will be significant but this could go to FLY IN JOHNNY, who wasn't at his best when last seen over 5f but who had previously shown ability over this trip and is bred to handle this surface.

No early prices to go on, just what the Racing Post provides. The tips are interesting as they are spread throughout the runners indicating the potential for a speculative each way punt. We have the dead 8 here as I write and with 7 runners priced between 3/1 and 10/1 we can hopefully avoid the obvious and chance a mid division horse. Martha at 11/2 betting forecast price is just outside the top 3 but not priced as an outsider and is worthy , I feel, of each way support.
This is an open maiden so those with a gambling instinct could look at even bigger priced horses in what looks a wide open affair

The cards today are particularly difficult with fancied runners who have had their fair share of wins and who may be slightly vulnerable ( winning sequences always end) Quick ground at Catterick and Leicester, coupled with big fields and 5/1 favs indicate a no betting day really on the horses.
I am even a little concerned that Sherrif Roscoe might win, given the quicker ground may be a hindrance to other horses.

FOOTBALL
ALl lower league stuff domestically with a smattering of German, Italian and Franch football, and it is with Juventus v Torino that I may have an angle into a bet.
Juve have not lost to Torino in their previous 6 encounters. I must say that the head to heads are not really relevant as they go back a number of years and a lot has changed in the interim.

This is a local derby -Juve are not firing on all cylinders but are home tonight. The market has priced them up as 4/7 favourites and it is from the price, more than anything, that I will take my cue. I will chance another venture into the halftime/fulltime market with Juve/Juve ; Draw/Juve; Draw/Draw (as it is a local derby)
I have engineered the bet to break even on the Juve/Juve result and get a nice profit on any other results.
If Torino score to no reply in the first half the bet will be an automatic loser. I'm hoping not.

Stuttgart are at home to Carl Zeiss JEna this evening and the 1/4 quote tells us that a home victory is the most likely outcome - not only that but there should be goals.
Recent results for both sides back this up - Jena have been conceding 2+ goals alarmingly and Stuttgart, especially at home ( Hertha Berlin's win not withstanding) have scored 2+ goals

The market, alas ,agrees with me and has priced up over 2.5 goals at 1.52.
NOTE - this match is not in running so there is no trading opportunity available.
1.52 is reasonable enough and increases the 1.31 available in the match odds market.
It may be worth chancing the Stuttgart/Stuttgart halftime/fulltime at 1.92 - a bigger profit. Personally I always include a cover bet on Draw/Stuttgart but in this case may leave a break even on the latter bet with profit on the Stuttgart double.

The fact there are no head to heads leads me to believe Jena have recently been promoted and their status as 2nd bottom backs this up.

All in all, a leave alone day I think on the horses with, perhaps, the Stuttgart game the only one I have confidence in (yet am reminded that Galatasary lost , when 1/8 to win, to a bottom placed side at the weekend so we can't discount anything!)

25/2

Like Rapidity and Confidentiality before, multiple handaicap winners on the flat can come in again.This becomes more difficult,with Macmar,when they have to run in a handicap over obstacles and 2 miles 7 furlongs.
We see the problem with mechanical systems.You have to follow a cerain set of rules for convenience sake,even though you wouldn't have backed the horse under normal circumstances.
Macmar was a 3into 1 selection yesterday and found the penalty far too tough for him.
hThe Gold MEdallist/Rustarix bet came off. Oscar Park won justifying Spotlight's strong confidence in him. See you sometime unplaced, outdone by those perceived outsiders-and this in a race paying out 3 the place for 5 runners!
I was right not to bet J'y vole yesterday-one race too many for her on a track which did not suit her habit of jumping out to the right.
Thank God for the left foot of Nakamura as he scored for Celtic in the 85th minute. Those with faith, andknowledge that Celtic have done thisbefore,could have backed them at nearly 4/1 to win -not bad for a 1/3 side. They did exactly the same against Gretna .
I was very pleased to get the unquoted score bet in the RAngers game-only a few minutes to go and the prayer mat was out for Rangers to get a 4th-I had resigned myself to defeat only to check a few moments later at the 4-2 scoreline-happy days.
Galatasary-what a bunch of muppets -at home to the bottom side, 1/8and lose 1-0-worse still they scuppered the mug punter acca the bar stewards!

HEREFORD
A couple to note in Fabulous Jet and Mickmacmagoogle today at Hereford but I won't back them (or lay them either!)

PLUMPTON
220
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Fix The Rib, 3/1 Canalturn, 9/2 Wheres Johnny, 11/2 Derry City, 14/1 Fortification, Royal Arms, 20/1 Dynamic Rhythm, Mustamad, 33/1 Coast Of Malabar .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FIX THE RIB and Canalturn look the pick of this field with marginal preference for Gary Moore's runner now he's upped in trip.[EMW]

A level stakes on the front 3 looks worthy of support although Derry City is there for all to see at 11/2. Decent returns on Wheres Johnny and Canalturn with small returns on Fix the rib.

The inclusion of Derry City is possiblein the following way(at prices at time of writing)
WheresJohnny-4.7 STAKE £10 PROFIT £13
Fix the Rib-3.5 STAKE £10PROFIT £1
Canalturn-4.4 STAKE £10PROFIT £10
DERRY City-8.2 STAKE £4LOSS £1.20

Now watch as Fortification romps home!

320
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Massini Sunset, 5/1 High Tech Made, Noble Bily, 7/1 Clyffe Hanger, Peut Etre Sivola, 12/1 Silver Serg, 14/1 Buckland Gold, 16/1 Single Player .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MASSINI SUNSET has two wins and a big-priced third to his name in three starts for today's jockey and, while 20lb higher than at the turn of the year, he's only back to the mark off which he made his handicap debut over hurdles and is still on just 88. Better can be expected of Clyffe Hanger down in trip if he puts in a decent round.[GW]

Potential price gapper,but as with Macmar - a horse in a handicap over jumps with a 20lb rise since the start of the year.
TOP RPR, TOPSPEED, good price gap to the next,12 of 13 tipsters - today's jockey has won on him,

The straight 8 means those who think this may be one too many can take an each way option in the hope of bigger returns. I will place back Massini Sunset at an unappealing 1.31.

WOLVES

310
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Might Be Magic, 7/4 Nags To Riches, 7/2 Awesome Light, 14/1 Crystal Spirit, 20/1 Lawton, Woodland Mist, 66/1 Me No Puppet, 100/1 Majestic Issue .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary maiden which can go to NAGS TO RICHES who caught a tartar at Southwell last time. Might Be Magic and Awesome Light are the obvious threats.[AC]

A maiden and the market tells us that, at 7/4 the front 2, this should chiefly concern Might be magic and NAgs to Riches. All horses have had a run previously so there's no superstar debutant to pop home at 33/1! One thing to be wary of is the number in the fieldwho have only had the one outing and can be expected to improve with experience.

That said, if we look strictly at the prices, then this will concern 3 horses with the 2 at 7/4 being the most likely.
There are 2 ways into this race .Dutch to level stakes Nags to Riches and Might be MAgic, or back Aswome Light each way in the hope he places at least BUT may suprise if the front 2 consent not to run to their prices.
The biggest pay out will be on Awsome light to place at 1.9. I will transfer some of the potential winnings from the place onto the win only market as the horse is 7 at present. If he places ,we profit marginally and get our stakes back. If he wins, its big payout!. At time of writing the market is not fully formed so I expect Awsome Light to be showing better prices later in the day

THE 3 INTO 1 SYSTEM
240 WOLVES - Morbick
320 PLUMPTON - Massini Sunset - see above for personal opinion
510 Wolves - Montjford -very short odds and Yes Mr President there incase he doesn't win





FOOTY

Undone by Galatasary yesterday with the mug punter acca.
Tonight sees one of the French teams I follow in Nantes away to Sedan but the market can't split the sides.(incidentally Getafe,the Spanish side I follow ,beat Real MAdrid on their patch last night -a horrendous losing run for Real which must be corrected soon so watch out!)
MK Dons face Swansea and again the market is telling us nothing.Ditto with Man City v Everton.
A no bet today in the footy.There is no real angle in.

A quietish day with some unspectacular returning bets

24/2

Flying Falcon won the dutch at Chepstow and quite decent odds too.3rd fav won at Fairyhouse .

Hobbs Hill was a faller -these things inevitably happen from time to time on the jumps.
Binocular won for a slight profit. Dansant won in the grade 1 at Lingfield and I chickened out and went for the place which was a reasonable 1.59 (1.35 at the off allowing traders to get stakes back)

Hobbs Hill a faller for the 3 into 1 system and Unowatimeen broke a blood vessel - unavoidable and something we are unable to see in advance!

With the Arsenal game, it meant that I got out of the under 2.5 goal trade at 1.65, a very slight profit because of the early sending off. You really have to be reactive to circumstances with trading and I played it safe.

Again the unpredictable Liverpool decided to win both halves leaving me a slight profit on Liverpool/Liverpool.

Nice profit in the Wigan correct score dutch with the 2-0

Ronaldo and Rooney both scored in a game I expected Newcastle to put up a fight for at home. Again, like the Liverpool match, Man Utd won both halves leaving a slight break even. I really expected Newcastle to be up for the match ,hence my caution in including the draw.

Back into the winners enclosure with another mug punter acca - you see the value of laying sides - eg the Birmingham v Arsenal game! A nice 1.98 priced bet

EXETER
325

MACMAR is the 3 into 1 system selection today, but under normal circumstances I wouldn't play a 15/8 shot over 2 miles 7 furlongs with a weight penalty. Yesterday saw the unpredictability of horse racing with the 3 into 1 selections - a faller and a broken blood vessel. This ended the run of 14winners in the last 17. Again, because this is a mechanical system, I will leave Macmar up as the bet despite personal opinion.

500
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Gold Medallist, 3/1 Rustarix, 6/1 Pimbury, Sir Bathwick, 33/1 Cava Bien, 66/1 Sir Pandy, Spitfire Bob, 100/1 Beesneez, Knapp Bridge Boy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was disappointing that GOLD MEDALLIST couldn't take advantage of what looked an easy opportunity last time but he deserves another chance to confirm the potential he had previously shown. Rustarix has a poor strike-rate but is best placed to take advantage should the selection underperform.[SR]

Pimbury is the fly in the ointment. Again a good opportunity to back the first 2 to level stakes with slight loss on Gold medallist and profit on Rustarix -given Gold medallist's disappointing performances last time, it is probably a good thing to load the profit onto Rustarix.
Pimbury cannot be dismissed but is uneconomical for inclusion.

FONTWELL
245

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Oscar Park, 7/2 O´Maley, 6/1 Dr Hart, 8/1 Sole Agent, 16/1 Gaelic Gift .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around OSCAR PARK, who was the clear pick of these over hurdles and has made a promising start to his chase career. The fact that he fell on his chase debut sounds a slight note of caution but his jumping was fine when winning well last time and he will be very hard to beat if jumping competently again. O'Maley is marginally preferred to Dr Hart as the biggest danger "will be very hard to beat IF" - the "if" is not ideal. Otherwise with Oscar Park we have a winner last time out, top RPR, most tips, Sptolight - " Oscar Park Useful staying hurdler who has made very promising start to chase career, still looking a live threat when coming down in decent event at Kempton before making amends with eased-down win in 3m Fakenham novice last time; similarly accomplished round of jumping likely to make him very hard to beat." Again it is worth, personally, dutching the top 2 given there are 2 prominent outsiders, with a ratio as follows OSCAR PARK - 1.76 £15 OMALEY - 3.8 £5 Here I have loaded profit on Oscar Park because of the positives from Spotlight 315 BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sporazene, 4/1 Tikram, 9/2 See You Sometime, 5/1 Big Rob, 12/1 Ryders Storm, 25/1 Haggle Twins, 33/1 Craven, 100/1 The Hardy Boy . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On the face of it, a good opportunity for SPORAZENE (nap), though he'll need to jump better than he sometimes does if he's to defy his big weight. See You Sometime, the only other carrying his correct weight, is in the twilight of his career while Tikram looks to be on the decline so the main threat may come from Big Rob.[DH] The straight 8 (as was) now reduced to 6 with the absence of Big Rob and Haggle Twins BUT Betfair will still pay out for the first 3 in the place only market, meaning horses only have 3 to beat to place , 2 of these 3 are at 50/1 and 100/1! See you sometime looks worthy of support to place at 1.55 as he really only has Ryders Storm to beat to place if we can dismiss the outsiders. Those who want a potentially easier ride can take the reasonable 1.25 ( given the circumstances) about the market leaders placing KEMPTON Unappealing card Naas J'y Vole runs again today - a terrific mare for Willie Mullins, and seeing the race she won last time, she overcame all sorts of problems. I put another Mullins mare, Pomme Tiepy up recently and that one obliged. j'y Vole's tendency to jump out to the right and this may be her undoing today on a right handed track. One to watch for me. I cannot lay her because of her qualities and Ruby on board but will sit out backing her today. If you decide to back her, you'll get a good run for your money FOOTY Very good day made frustrating by half time/full time dutches ending as break evens - hey its all about preservation of the betting bank while enabling us to be in with a shout of winning. St Mirren v Celtic interest me - again half time/full time Celtic Celtic and Draw/Celtic helps to boost the odds. Stakes of £14 at odds of 2 on the former and £6 at 4.6 on the latter spreads profit ( about £7 return so if you work in multiples of that you'll know how much to place) If a team is priced 1/9 it usually means goals, and this may be the case in the Rangers v Gretna game today. Half time/full time is 1.4 which enhances the 1.11 match odds. NOTE this game is not in running so bets are straight bets and are not tradeable . For those who want a speculative bet, any unquoted in the correct score market is 2.6, a huge difference when compared to the match odds market. The assumption here is that Rangers will score 4 as I cannot see Gretna scoring 4!. As an enhanced odds bet, it may be worth chancing. I have no personal opinion re the Carling Cup Final - one off matches - anything can happen and head to heads are worthless. MUG PUNTER ACCA With so many home teams expected to have an easy ride today, I'm hoping for 3 on the trot with my mug punter accas

1	St Mirren v Celtic (Laying St Mirren @ 16.08)
2	Rangers v Gretna (Backing Rangers @ 1.1)
3	Barcelona v Levante (Backing Barcelona @ 1.13)
4	Galatasaray v Kasimpasa (Laying Kasimpasa @ 84.31)
5	PSV v De Graafschap (Laying De Graafschap @ 53.43)
6	Panathinaikos v Levadiakos (Laying Levadiakos @ 92.81)

6-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5 and 6	1.37	£25.60	£9.47

No real value at all to me.
You may want to consider

1 PSV v De Graafschap (Backing PSV @ 1.17) 2 Rangers v Gretna (Backing Rangers @ 1.1) 3 Barcelona v Levante (Backing Barcelona @ 1.13) 4 St Mirren v Celtic (Backing Celtic @ 1.33) 5 Panathinaikos v Levadiakos (Laying Levadiakos @ 85.65) 6 Galatasaray v Kasimpasa (Laying Kasimpasa @ 77.18) 6-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 1.97 £25.60 £24.83 NEar enough to evens to warrant consideration

23/2

Close shave with Schiehallion who, judging by the prices, was bang in there , and traded as low as 1.4. I could have greened up but was aware that if he placed, it was pretty much break even.

Noland and My Petra came 1st and 2nd - evens about a 1.26 shot - like the football - if there's a way to enhance the odds we should take them and let's face it, this wasn't rocket science was it in a 5 runner race with 3 at double figure odds?

Soba Jones and Nautical fought it out, and I thought Nautical had it, given he traded low,but eventually it was a break even as Soba Jones got up.

Hope Road stayed at 9/1 but was badly hampered - wasn't his day yesterday.

All bar FAbulous Jet (recent winner) and Kibitzer (maiden race with debutants but traded at 1.26 in running) win for the 3 into 1 system to make it 14 from the last 17 winners

Le HAvre and Swansea both won for the nice mug punter acca.

Typically busy Saturday and I always get drawn into making a lot of bets ( justwhat the bookies want!) so let's be cautious today

CHEPSTOW

250 is an interesting race but it's a big field and a beginners chase. HAs the feel of a quantity over quality race. With the Sawyer and Flying Falcon at 11/4 and 7/2, those so inclined could dutch these 2. As I say there will be easier opportunities but I'm taken by Spotlight's positivity and the prices of the other horses

The rest of the card includes a lot of big fields.

FAIRYHOUSE
450
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Snowy Morning, 7/2 One Cool Cookie, 7/1 Arteea, 8/1 Afistfullofdollars, 10/1 Vic Venturi, 12/1 Hedgehunter, 20/1 Jack High, 150/1 Ardlea Star.

The striaght 8 here and the mighty HEdgehunter runs again but it may be worth chancing ante-post GRand NAtional favourite Snowy Morning to consolidate why he is. One Cool Cookie will be an ideal each way candidate for those averse to short prices over 3 mile events

KEMPTON

A card of quality does not necessarily translate to a card of betting opportunities.
240
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Hobbs Hill, 5/1 Lead On, 11/2 Oslot, 8/1 Pur De Sivola, 10/1 Pancake .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HOBBS HILL sets a very high standard on the form shown when winning Grade 2 novices on his last two starts and with this trip, the forecast ground and his hitherto very sound jumping all in his favour, he is a confident choice to make it five out of five over fences. Oslot may be next best. [MCu]

The fact this is aa scoop 6 race should translate that perhaps it's not as straightforward as the prices indicate, but I'll stick with Hobbs Hill here given Spotlight's confidence, and the fact the horse ticks all the boxes re the 3 into 1 system. You'll see this ain't no cakewalk by looking at the form - a lot of 1's spread through out

350
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Binocular, 11/4 Pierrot Lunaire, 7/1 Furmigadelagiusta, 8/1 Doubly Guest, Zanir, 12/1 Troque, 20/1 Mud Monkey, 40/1 Regional Counsel, Special Day, 50/1 L´Homme De Nuit, 200/1 Coppergirl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BINOCULAR (nap) was stylish first time out over hurdles and can justify his very prominent position in the Triumph Hurdle betting by winning here as well. Pierrot Lunaire and Furmigadelagiusta are feared most, given that the selection's stablemate Doubly Guest blotted her copybook last Saturday

Will there be more singing on the streets of Killarney as I rea another juvenile novice's hurdle right?
I'll chance a dutch on Binocular and pierrot Lunaire for Nicholls/Walsh and Henderson/Fitzgerald

Caution advised at any Scoop 6 venue so bear that in mind!

LINGFIELD
415
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dansant, 5/1 Grand Passion, 6/1 Dubai´s Touch, 8/1 Fajr, Sri Diamond, 12/1 Capricorn Run, 16/1 Baylini, Voliere, 20/1 Troubadour, Yarqus, 25/1 Dream Lodge, 50/1 Smokey The Bear, 66/1 Basra .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GRAND PASSION, winner of this race in 2004 and 2006, has a bit to find with a few on BHA figures under his penalty, notably Dansant, but at the very least looks a low-risk each-way play against the favourit

A price gapper in a class 1 race should always be factored in. Being a class 1 ,this isn't a banded stakes dodge pot race-v the opposition are handy.

Jamie Spencer is on board Dansant .Preference for place only although odds will be skinny

3 INTO 1 SYSTEM

150 Newcastle	Unowatameen
240 Kempton	Hobbs Hill

FOOTY

A return to the winner's enclosure for mug punters yesterday as the acca scraped in.
1245 sees Birmingham face the Arse at home and this is no gimme for the gunners.
The most recent result we can guage Brum by is their loss 1-0 to Chelsea at home and I expect another tight contest with a defensive Brum set up of 4-5-1 against top 4 sides.
Under 2.5 goals as a trade looks worthy of following today to get out after a decent perfiod (20 mins or so) if it remains 0-0.

Last 4 results for Liverpool v Boro read draw at Boro, win at Anfield, Draw at Boro, win at Anfield. Any chance of this sequence being broken ? 4/9 from the bookies suggests not.
I wouldn't read too much into the result mid week against 10 men -a lucky deflection for the first as well.
With the knowledge of the sequence and the fact, personaally, I can't see Boro winning, I will chance the half time/full time dutch on
Liverpool/Liverpool at 2.2
Draw/Liverpool at 4.6
Draw/Draw at 7.6

to the following staking ratios of £13 , £10, £7 -slight loss on Liverpool/Liverpool

Only one game to go on re head to heads for Derby v Wigan, and I would suspect this nerve jangling affair ( for the Wigan boys - Derby are down) will translate into few goals nad a tight game. Trading under 2.5 goals
We can dutch the correct score of 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 as the shortest price is 6.8 for the Wigan 1-0 we can level stake the rest. This may be an over complicated bet for a Saturday but I don't see Derby getting 2 or Wigan getting 3.

515 sees me speak those immortal words " I would LOVE it if we beat them, just love it" as King Kev meets his psychological tormentor of campaigns gone by at St James Park.

How on earth are Newcastle going to score? I hear Shearer is still fit. But what angle in?
Man Utd are 1.51 in the match odds market which is reasonable.
halftime/Fulltime is interesting with Man Utd/Man Utd , Draw/ man Utd and Draw/Draw all dutchable (slight loss on Man Utd/Man Utd)

Christiano Ronaldo at 2.36 and Rooney at 2.54 can both be backed. Slight profit if 1 scores - bonanza if they both score.


MUG PUNTER ACCA

1	Birmingham v Arsenal (Laying Birmingham @ 9.47)
2	Wigan v Derby (Laying Derby @ 8.63)
3	Newcastle v Man Utd (Laying Newcastle @ 10.58)
4	Lyon v Metz (Backing Lyon @ 1.21)
5	Porto v Pacos Ferreira (Backing Porto @ 1.19)

5-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4 and 5	2.01	£100.00	£101.00

i'm trying for another evens today and leaving Liverpool out of calculations
Draws could be likely at brum, Derby and NEwcastle and my bankers are Lyon at home and Porto at home. A reasonable price but some difficult fixtures - the Derby match could go either way and Brum will be no push over

22/2

LEt down by the Spurs, and I should have known better and used the questions from January's newsletter. Obviously the Carling Cup was in the minds of the manager and the players coupled with NO desire to win the game. A classic case of playing not to lose rather than playing to win. Very frustrating indeed and the mug punter acca lost. It was only an evens bet but a losing evens bet!
The galling thing was I thought Everton would be the team to struggle yesterday but that wasn't the case. The swear jar has been emptied after last night and I have enough money from that swear jar to buy a BEntley!
Bayern decided to show the kind of form which they should have showed in last week's encounter at Pittodrie . Miroslav Klose didn't start the game so I didn't bet on him for the "to score2 bet, and the unders came in the Rangers game, and congratulations to rangers for getting through.

At Ayr, another 16/1 system bet obliged in Mr Multifix, 14/1 in the betting forecsat opens at 7/1. This scuppered my each way bet . With Kalahari King a non runner ,Silver by nature did win, albeit at a much shorter price

Uimhiraceaathair lost.
Good win for Brook no argument, a mare I remember (the name helps)
Jalil ,the price gapper, won well. NAD AL SHEEBA

A tricky card

SANDOWN

255
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Hell´s Bay, 7/2 Space Mission, 9/2 Schiehallion, 8/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 10/1 Supreme Duke, 12/1 Fix The Rib, 20/1 Patton, Regal Quote, 33/1 Hillridge, 66/1 Musical Chairs, 100/1 Standandbecounted .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HELL'S BAY disappointed last time but his previous close third here reads well and a return to that form would give him an obvious chance. Isn't That Lucky may pose most problems

The possibility of an each way option. 6 horses are 22/1 or bigger. Hells's BAy, as yopu can read, disappointed last time which opens up an each way alternative. Schiehallion ,as 3rd betting forecast fav, could be that each way threat

330
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Noland, 5/1 My Petra, 12/1 Psychomodo, 25/1 Kervriou, 33/1 Keepthedreamalive .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NOLAND got the job done in exemplary manner on his chasing debut and is difficult to oppose, though the ground will be as fast as anything he has encountered. My Petra looks the one most likely to expose any flaw in the favourite's make-up and is the obvious forecast candidate

2 horses over 25/1 leaves Psychomodo the threat if we take the option of a straight forecast bet to up the odds
It's about evens at present which is a vast improvement on 1.26

SOUTHWELL

245
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Soba Jones, 2/1 Nautical, 5/2 Magic Amour, 8/1 High Reach, 50/1 Monasheemini .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The money came for Magic Amour when he won easily on his penultimate start and support here would look significant, but SOBA JONES has won well the last twice and can complete the hat-trick under his optimum conditions

WIth MAgic Amour out, this should accentuate the race as a 2 horse affair. Backing both to level stakes leaves a slight loss on Soba Jones, but a nice profit on Nautical.

WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Metaphoric, 3/1 Prideus, 8/1 Bantry Bere, 10/1 Fredo, Morning Farewell, 14/1 Oakley Heffert, 16/1 Aypeeyes, Chunky´s Choice, Hope Road, 20/1 Amazing Request, Hanbrin Bhoy, 25/1 Born West, 33/1 Diamant Rose, Haar, Linlithgow, 100/1 Beau Bramble .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: METAPHORIC isn't entirely straightforward and will probably be short enough given there are dangers lurking here, but he should be tough to beat if reproducing his debut effort now back on better groun

Why is Hope Road 9/1 early prices - a market mover perhaps? 12 horses are 20/1 or bigger in this 16 runner event, making Hope Road a speculative each way punt incase it is a potential stable gamble
WOLVES is as tricky as usual

THE 3 INTO 1 SYSTEM

My own invention, has had 12 of last 14 come in. No doubt now I'm putting them on the blog it's going to go tits up.

140 sthl	yakimov
220 Sand	Fabulous jet
330 Sand	Noland
345 Warwick	Amber Brook
520 Warwick	Tribal venture
750 Wolves	Kibitzer

I don't want to interfere with personal opinion with this system because it is a mechanical system which allows you to select the night before. Having said that, here's my tuppence worth - Noland will be ultra short , Fabulous Jet is a recent winner, tribal Venture appears in the dreaded HUNTER CHASE!
Kibitzer is in a maiden race with a couple of newcomers.
Let's see how we get on though! A 53% strike rate currently ensures profit

FOOTY
The Spurs attitude and my lack of insight re the upcoming Carling Cup Final cost me yesterday.

I put up LE Havre at 9/10 last week, well they're 4/9 at home this week against Dijon.
A double with Swansea against all at sea Luton bumps it up to 1.98

1	Le Havre v Dijon (Backing Le Havre @ 1.43)
2	Swansea v Luton (Backing Swansea @ 1.38)

Doubles
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1 and 2	1.98	£10.00	£9.80

Preference though is to lay the opposition in one of the games and use the other team as a "banker bet"

But we'll see how we get on - advantages - both playing at home - both good recent records. Luton in disarray against the league leaders

21/2

Why I didn't go with overs in the Barcelona game is a mystery! Bets there went south. I was getting quite excited at Celtic 1-0 but that didn't last til half time. Celtic led half time and Barca won full time - bring on the rematch ,I think we'll have a fair idea of a betting angle!

The Arsenal Winning margin bet came in. Man Utd did struggle again ,helped by a late Tevez equaliser. We should feel fairly confident that we can get some decent bets in the rematches having seen these initial skirmishes.

All in all a tricky footballing night

Dress to impress won at a reasonable 1/2.

Fregate Island won the Kempton race which was a 3 in 1 system race. Given a choice was the selection but I did have a feeling this would fall to either/or and so it proved.

AYR

Begins with a 20 runner conditional jokcey handicap hurdle - hardly the Gold Cup and one to immediately steer clear of!

240
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Banoge, 5/1 Romping Home, 7/1 Good Evening, Start Royal, 8/1 Carrick Dhu, 14/1 Benmadigan, Box Wallah, Mr Multifix, 16/1 Silver Destiny, 33/1 Waterski, 40/1 Brocks Brae, Do It For Dalkey, 66/1 Castleroche, The Babe Magnet, 100/1 Rowdy Exit, Teviot Lass, 150/1 Maylee, 200/1 Classic Act .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Making too many excuses for BANOGE may be unwise but he was miles in front of Carrick Dhu over this C&D last month and the form of his defeat at short odds over 3m next time has worked out fine, so he is given another chance. Start Royal was a bit more like it last time and he could find the necessary improvement for this step up in trip.[PJ]

At first glance a race to avoid for dear life! 8 of the runners, however, are 50/1 or bigger reducing the field of those most likely to 10.

Romping home at 11/2 is the nearest rival to the hot pot whose form, by the way, does look solid, BUT you know about maiden hurdles by now I hope!
Romping each way for me here.

345
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Kalahari King, 5/1 Kyoto Summit, 7/1 Silver By Nature, 14/1 Salsero, The Depot Bar, 50/1 Hello My Lovely, 100/1 Cassius, Currahee, Mr Twins, Silverdales, Sriology .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KALAHARI KING was being touted as a possible Cheltenham contender after dotting up at Musselburgh (still holds the Supreme entry) and looks a good thing to put his Doncaster defeat behind him.[AWJ]

In the unlikely event Kalahari King doesn't win, Silver by nature for me each way looks good for a place at least.

520 - potentially dutchable but this is a hunter chase - the type of race in which a horse like thisthatandother at 1/7 can get beaten!

CLONMEL
525
Willie Mullins has another favourite and Uimhiraceaathair is provisionally 6/4 fav with Good time Bob 2/1. A dutchable race here I will engineer a breakeven on Good time bob and load profit onto The Mullins horse -you know the one - begins with U!

I did have a case of Uimhiraceaathair once, but it cleared up with a bit of ointment.

HUNTINGDON

A 2 mile 5 f maiden hurdle starts the card here with 18 runners.!
220
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Brook No Argument, 11/2 Driving Miss Suzie, 7/1 Rosa Fina, 8/1 Eila, 9/1 Popcorn Rosie, Tiegs, 10/1 Cortesia, Just Beware, 14/1 Saraba, 16/1 Arisea, Upright Ima, 33/1 Present, 50/1 Miss Colmesnil .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BROOK NO ARGUMENT has been running well in novice contests recently and this looks a good opportunity for her to get off the mark. Popcorn Rosie is unexposed and going the right way, while Driving Miss Suzie and Rosa Fina are others worthy of consideration if the betting gives the right signals.[SR]

Mares only race, and the ladies can be a tad unpredictable. Brook no argument though is one to follow I think, and each way looks a good proposition. Load the place only bet and a little on the win.

NAD AL SHEEBA

515
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Jalil, 10/1 Basko De Zarautz, Dynamic Saint, Gloria De Campeao, 12/1 Escape Route, Halkin, 14/1 Acrobatic, Mulaqat, Public Forum, Rampallion, Vainglory, 20/1 Chinkara, Seabow, Tabadul, 25/1 Great Plains, 33/1 Bain Douche ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A maximum field but, although he's drawn on the outside, the one that makes the most appeal is Godolphin's JALIL, who created a most favourable impression on his UAE debut. He shaped that day as though the extra distance here is going to suit and is fancied to overcome a 9lb rise in the weights. Dynamic Saint ran well at this course last week in an eyeshield and may be the chief threat from this lower mark

A prominent price gap here for Jalil BUT do take note of the race type (handicap) and the rise in the weights

SOUTHWELL
Some old familiar faces in Hits only Jude, Another Genepi, Louisiade, Hucking HEat, Copperbottomed, all who have been winning in turn, but who's going to win today? The imponderables of the all weather!

WOLVES
750
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dickie Le Davoir, 9/4 Landucci, 7/2 Raza Cab, 4/1 Dancing Wizard, 50/1 Moorside Diamond .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A case can be made for four of the five runners but DICKIE LE DAVOIR is the one doing the business right now and is fancied to go in again, provided he isn't caught napping off a steady pace

If a case can be made for 4 of the last 5 runners , then logic dictates, surely, that we should be backing the outside 2, currently 5/1 each (Dancing Wizard and Raza Cab)?

FOOTY

UEFA CUP TURN tonight and there are some interesting clashes where we could get some returns.

Bayern Munich should really gain adequate compensation against Aberdeen at home this time and I really would like, as with the first game, to see Frank Ribery playing. He would tear them apart. Again I feel confident enough that Miroslav Klose will score to put my hard earned on him in the market.

Over 2.5 goals looks a viable trading option. Bayern this time must prevail surely.

Spurs should consolidate the away victory at home this time against a Slavia Prague side who are no great shakes and do not meet Premiership quality sides that often. Half time/Full time on Spurs/Spurs ; Draw/Spurs leaves a break even on Spurs/Spurs and big profit on Draw/Spurs. If you want to swap this around, then a ratio of £15 on Spurs/Spurs and £4 on Draw/Spurs will load profit on Spuds and slight loss on the draw.

If we take the first game as a model, then under 2.5 goals in the Rangers game tonight looks a decent enough trade, probably to get out before the first half has ended.

MUG PUNTER ACCA

Yes it's the return of the mug punter acca after a sabbatical cursing those scousers against Barnsley

1	Hamburg v FC Zurich (Laying FC Zurich @ 11.52)
2	B Munich v Aberdeen (Backing B Munich @ 1.12)
3	Fiorentina v Rosenborg (Laying Rosenborg @ 16.05)
4	Bordeaux v Anderlecht (Laying Anderlecht @ 9.24)
5	Tottenham v Slavia Prague (Backing Tottenham @ 1.32)
6	Everton v Brann (Laying Brann @ 23.87)
7	Villarreal v Zenit St Petersburg (Laying Zenit St Petersburg @ 13.31)

7-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7	2.18	£100.00	£118.00

I am relying on Spurs and Bayern (again!) to get me the wins, all other shorties have been backed NOT to lose. All of these shorties have home advantae so laying the opposition is a good way in. 2.18 is a very reasonable price

20/2

Well I got a ticker tape parade in the streets of Killarney yesterday, and a civic reception. Congratulations by phone from Gordon Broooooooon and George Bush (although I suspect someone had to show him how to use the phone) why?
I read a juvnile novices hurdle race correctly! - Amazing scenes.
Yes Seven is my number was an unexpected but welcome winner. Shining gale at 8/1 was a good each way 2nd against the Nicholls/Walsh hotpot.
Liverpool are becoming a frustration from a betting perspective. Yes the unders came in no problem ( you should have traded out at 1.07 after about an hour) but they scuppered the Winning margin dutch with the Gerrard goal - scoundrels! You saw, I hope, another sequence which was broken at Barnsley and yesterday. Yes, Dirk "you couldn't score in a brothel" Kuyt has bagged 2 goals now in 2 games.
The draw/draw in the Chelsea game paid out well.
Real MAdrid have now lost 3 away games on the trot. What is the likelihood of them losing a 4th - something to put in your diary from a sequencing perspective.

Two all weather venues remain today

KEMPTON
The 720 is of some interest but returns are small. It looks a 2 horse race but for example £10 level stakes you'll make about £1 on Given a choice and £5 on Fregate Island - equivalent of a 1/2 return on Fregate. BEar in mind this is an evening race so a lot of market activity could occur in the interim.
Place only betting with such a small field ? Well the 2 main market rivals are about 1.35 to place. I won't bother, but may consider the dutch as there's only 5 runners , 2 at double figure odds, and we'll be covering 2 of those more likely.

LINGFIELD
150
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Dress To Impress, 5/2 Night Prospector, 8/1 Now You See Me, 16/1 Stoneacre Gareth .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With just four runners there is a chance that this may turn into a messy tactical affair but with Night Prospector very out of sorts when last seen it is hard to look past DRESS TO IMPRESS as things stand.[GN]

I am loathe to back shorties in small field all weather races, but probability wise, it has 3 to beat, hass the "hard to look past" and "this far easier and disappointing if he is beaten."
Top RPR , 12 tips, sharp drop in class from 4 to 6, and a distance winner.
BUT 5 furlong claimers are not the staple diet of the successful punter.
Make you own minds up - is there enough evidence to back at current 8/15 - any shorter and I'll have to sit it out.

FOOTY

In a quiet day betting wise where I am tempted to sit out the all weather venues with their small fields and tight knit prices generally, we have more difficult games in tonight's football.
The Arse face a Milan side who, domestically, who have drawn their last 2 against Livorno and Parma. I had the lay of Livorno in a mug punter acca as Milan were 1/4 to win.
Their victories have all been by one goal bar one recent match against Genoa
Arsenal have been free scoring with 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 matches. But we did witness an out of sorts side at the weekend in the FA Cup ( and teh same could be said of Liverpool!)
Team news for the Arse will be vital here.Again I am drawn to a "neutral" bet here in the Winning Margin, by dutching 0 and 1 goals - cue Adebayor hatrick in the 91st minute!

The Celtic v Barcelona game you would think would be a far more srtaightforward game - a case of attack versus defence and see who can hold out the longest. Barcelona are coming off the back of a welcome away win at Zaragoza which will really boost the confidence and they always seem to score in every match
Celtic have won their last 6 ,BUT against weaker opposition and have their own Leo Mc Messi in Aiden McGeady - he's a class act.
Vennegoor of HeEsselink scores regularly.
Celtic have fired on big Champions League nights at home and won their previous match 3-0 away from home which, prior to Champions League is always a timely boost.
The dentist's dream patient, Ronaldinho may sit this one out ,as he has been doing regularly in domestic matches. However there is a wealth of firepower to eventually grind out a goal agains what will be a stubborn Celtic.

But what angle in?Can we get what the market thinks? - well Barcelona to qualify are 1.15 - resounding vote of confidence - Barca in the half time/full time are 3.3 - reasonable.
I'm going to try for a half time score dutch here on the 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1
Odds are 2.92 , 7.8 and 4.3
Straight £10 bets produce 80p loss on 0-0, £45 on Celtic 1-0, and £12.35 on Barca 1-0
This is in expectation of a tight first half.

For those who like a real gamble, perhaps the Draw/Celtic half time/full time at odds of 11.5 may appeal. Cue a late goal winner to leave Parkhead bouncing?
The likelihood of this occuring of course is all shown in the price but a small punt with stake you can write off will cover any surprises.

The Man UTd v Lyon game is far too close to call tonight. Lyon, though, do not look the usual invincible force domestically with a couple of recent "shock" defeats", and Man Utd on the road have tended to find life difficult

It's days like today where you're scrambling for angles in that you can conclude this day is better served as a watching brief to enjoy the games rather than get any involvment. I said yesterday that this stage of the Champions LEague becomes more difficult to assess.

19/2

Two 90th minute goals secured the win yesterday for Nantes and a nice payout on draw/Nantes equivalent to nearly 3/1

Nothing really at Punchestown, bar 3 maiden hurdles!. Sizing Africa may be worth an interest if the market vibes are strong. The "Sizing" named horses seem to run well.

SEDGEFIELD

300
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kalahari King, 6/4 Mr Crystal, 7/1 King In Waiting, 14/1 Woodcraft, Yeoman Spirit, 25/1 Calow Green, 50/1 Rowan Lodge, 100/1 Moving Story, 200/1 Loch Awe, Naval Attache, One Accord, Silver Alidante, Yorkshire Owl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kalahari King disappointed when a hot favourite at Doncaster recently and is opposed with MR CRYSTAL, who is much better over hurdles than he was on the Flat and put a heavy fall behind him with a bold show under a double penalty at Catterick. It would be no surprise if the pair have the race between them.[FC]

Another choice - the front 2 are backable with level stakes and there is an obvious each way horse in King in Waiting. Probably a better return on King in Waiting to place with a little on the win although this would seem to be the more speculative of the 2 options

TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Forest Pennant, 5/1 Phar Again, Shining Gale, 13/2 Paradise Regained, 14/1 Dip Anchor, 20/1 Pop, 25/1 Pacco, This Way, 100/1 Grumpy Bee, Saddler George, You Know Bridie .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shining Gale is a lot better than he showed at Fontwell last time but even if back on song he could struggle to contain FOREST PENNANT, whose Chepstow win looks all the better now.[AWJ]

Walsh/Nicholls team up with hot pot Forest Pennant, currently 4/9. Each way options are available for all those pre 14/1 in the betting forecast. I'll opt for the middle man, Shining Gales each way

420
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Emerald Wilderness, 15/8 Woolcombe Folly, 7/2 Seven Is My Number, 7/1 Lord Crewe, 10/1 Come On Jonny, 20/1 Tufton, 50/1 Don Pietro, Schindlers Son, 100/1 Colorado Storm, Glowing Dawn, Lyon´s Hill, Skyler, Southway Queen .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Woolcombe Folly won't be long in winning judged on his bumper form but EMERALD WILDERNESS has experience and Flat speed, which should be a potent weapon around here, especially if conditions continue to dry out.[AWJ]

A 5 horse race ? - but what way in?
Another maiden hurdle so which way will it turn today? - will the 2 market leaders run to their odds or will one of the each ways succeed. Seven is my number at 4/1 looks backable each way, with the emphasis on the place only bet

FOOTBALL

Some tricky fixtures tonight. Liverpool, impressive winners against Barnsley in the FA Cup....................NOT! face a team not unsimilar to the mighty Barnsley in Inter Milan.
You know what's going to happen now don't you. Liverpool will ensure the Kopites et al will have to sit through nother 90 minutes of torture as they concede early

Treating Inter as a kind of "Top 4" equivalent we can expect a very tight affair and a potential under 2.5 goal trade. I don't expect home advantage to have any great bearing on proceedings this evening.
Winning margin dutch on 0 and 1 goals looks like it might come in if the expectation for a tight game is realised. I would create a break even position on 0 goals and profit loaded on 1 goal.

I expect Chelsea NOT to lose this evening, and a half time/full time bet replicating Nantes yesterday could work, at odds of 3.4, 5.8, 5.8 on Chelsea/Chelsea ; Draw/Chelsea ; Draw/Draw.
Olympiacos have not really been free scoring against their domestic opposition and Chelsea have the full compliment back.

Usually at this stage of the Champions League things get difficult and just because there's matches being played does not mean we have to entertain a bet. To be honest there will be easier games to analyse in the future. The games are seen as "one offs" so there is no real past history to consider

18/2

CApe of storms won at Southwell, and Pomme Tiepy won again , further emphaisissing the strength at Willie Mullins yard at present. Rangers/Rangers came in as did the lay of Boro for those who entertained that bet in the unpredictable FA Cup.

100% yesterday -good stuff

Just Lingfield survives today.
Nothing of interest at Lingfield.

Like Le Havre, Nantes are occasionally worth following and at 4/5 at home are expected NOT to lose today.
Best angle in for me is the half time/fulltime level stakes dutch of Nantes/Nantes , Draw/Nantes, and Draw/Draw which will load profit in all but the Nantes/Nantes.

17/2

Well, yet again, there is no such thing as a sure thing and you can always rely on Liverpool to balls it up! Luckily I selected a neutral bet rather than get involved in taking sides and how frustrating that Dirk Kuyt scored in the 31st minute when I'd covered the 11th to the 30th minute.!

Elsewhere Monets Garden placed which enhanced the win odds on Kauto Star who was mighty impressive. That 10/11 for the Champion hurdle looks very enticing although Denman is close at 15/8

Elusive dream won as did Gold award . Well Kicking King and Justified were undone by the outsider, and at Gowran, the talking horse, Apt Approach won at a tasty(relatively speaking)5/2.

No luck in the Wichita Lineman race where we're reminded these are horses we're dealing with and nothing can be taken for granted (much like Liverpool!)

Alnwick placed in the 920 at KEmpton, and I was right to oppose Basalt - wish I'd been more confident adn laid him, but I guess I had Rapidity on my mind! Song of songs won.

It was always going to be difficult for Nicholls/Heard to win 2 consecutive races - Arturio was the one who lost.

Overs in Werder's game went down by one goal. Overs came in the Chelsea game but Huddersfield managed a goal. I must remember this is the FA Cup in future. Overs came in the Liverpool match, albeit in a slightly surprising manner! Overs came in the Gretna match as they continued their "scoring at home"

Man Utd v Arsenal- well I couldn't get an angle in and left well alone - the winning margin bets were thrown out the water as Arsenal decided to field the Arsenal ladies side yesterday.

Yet again, on a Saturday there's actually too many opportunities!

300 Southwell
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Cape Of Storms, 7/4 Not Another Cat, 4/1 Daniel O´Donnell, 16/1 Frisbee, 25/1 Easily Naimd, 33/1 Ducal Regancy Red, Raihanah, Walragnek ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although backing longstanding maidens is a very dubious policy, CAPE OF STORMS is the one in-form runner that is proven over this C&D and he ought to go close, at least, in this weak event.

Looks an ideal race to level stakes dutch the first 2 with break even on Cape of storms

NAVAN
210
Place only on Scotsirish looks good with Ruby on board in what may be a match up with Clopf

410
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Pomme Tiepy, 6/1 Kilcrea Castle, 8/1 The Halfway Bar, 10/1 Charlie Yardbird, 14/1 Badgerlaw, Be My Leader, 16/1 Sandhurst, Whatever You Think, 20/1 Tardenois, 50/1 Summer Seeds, 100/1 Misty´s Express.

Didn't quite go to script with Candy Girl, but J'y Vole did the business and Pomme Tiepy, another Mullins mare ,looks worthy of support for me here to continue Willie Mullins fine run with his mares. Those aware that the horse has already notched a few wins may like the place only market, as winning sequences always end eventually.

FOOTY
RAngers have taken 3 of the last 4 relevant head to heads ,scoring 2 or more on 3 occasions.They've won twice away in 2007 meetings .Killie are on a 6 match sequence without a win. Rangers have won their last 6. Half time/full time Rangers/Rangers and Draw/Rangers looks worthy of support.Using £15 on Rangers/Rangers and £5 on Draw/Rangers I am loading the former result with potential profit. You can always alter stakes to suit -eg balance profit or load the draw /Rangers

With the FA Cup continuing to surprise. perhaps Boro would be worth laying at 2.42 to trade off a bit later on, although i must say here that I will probably leave the FA Cup games alone from a betting perspective - too many surprises.

A quiet day all in all

16/2

Oscar park won, so was worth the risk yesterday at a reasonable price. Rock Wren unplaced as the each way bet.
I was right to go each way in Boy on a swing's bet. It was the 3rd betting forecast fav Rowan Rio who won - so close!
Oh boy, Rapidity won again. THe winning run will end next time I hope! Crack away Jack won for the dutch
Le Havre won at 9/10 - a team worth following I think .
Why can't every game be like Ajax - a 1.21 side who performed and scored like a 1.21 side. Over 2.5 goals easily met in the 1st half along with over 3.5 goals and any unquoted in the correct sore market. Great end to the day.

ASCOT
Full of class 1-2-3 today.
225
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Kauto Star, 9/2 Monet´s Garden, 13/2 Racing Demon, 16/1 Fair Along, 25/1 Howle Hill, Vodka Bleu, 150/1 See You Sometime, 200/1 Lord Killeshanra, 500/1 Mystical Star .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The odds will be very skinny for sure but it still seems pointless to oppose KAUTO STAR, who was right back to last season's superb best when running away with the King George last time and, granted a clear round, is extremely likely to make this 10 wins from his last 12 starts. Last year's winner Monet's Garden can chase him home, ahead of Racing Demon.

Mouth watering, but from a betting perspective? Monet'[s Garden to place bumps up the odds to 1.56 and may be the way to go. I can't see past Kauto Star at this stage. As a 2 mile 5 furlong race, there's no need to get involved pre race. You can monitor the odds for a few minutes of the race and get involved if it is going to plan.

When Denman ran, the odds remained consistent for a large part of the race.

300
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Elusive Dream, 2/1 Lyceum, 7/1 Zilcash, 25/1 Busker Royal, Mister Wiseman .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ELUSIVE DREAM is not straightforward by any means but there is no denying his ability and, having been suited by front-running on the Flat, he may prove the most adaptable in what could be a tactical affair. Lyceum is the obvious danger

We can currently level stakes dutch the top 2 leaving a small loss on Elusive dram and a better profit on Lyceum - Elusive is " not straightforward by any means" - could be a way in?

445
ETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Gold Award, 3/1 Conflictofinterest, 7/2 Uffa Fox, 16/1 Fresh Air And Fun, 20/1 Puerto Azul, 25/1 Ffos Las Diamond, 33/1 Manyoshu, 66/1 Park Lodge, 100/1 Supreme De Paille .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Uffa Fox did well to win in a higher grade here with the race not really run to suit, while Conflictofinterest is very well regarded, but GOLD AWARD looked a smart prospect at Fakenham and is already prominent in the betting for the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham Witha ratio of 11 to 9, backing Gold award and Conflictofinterest may pay off. Another race like Oscar Park, where connections will want to see Gold award winning to enhance his Cheltenham prospects. Of course I made the mistake in a previous dutch of leaving the more obvious horses such as Uffa Fox so bear that in mind. GOWRAN PARK Good to soft - soft to heavy on the courses 200 Kicking King and Justified may be worth dutching, as Hi Cloy has drifted in the market. A ratio of £13 on Kicking and £7 on justified will spread the potential returns at odds of 2.14 and 3.85 currently 510 BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Apt Approach, 7/2 Ok Corral, 6/1 Paul Kristian, 8/1 Hollies Favourite, 10/1 Bring On Rocket, The Real Project, 12/1 Dont Stop Now, Lady Roberta, Morgantoo, Oscar Award, See U Bob, 14/1 Capdalight, 16/1 Dallaglio, Flirthing Around, Grancore Girl, Rock Angelico, 25/1 Blacko Jacko, Dahra One, Halls Run, Lillinga, A talking horse - no not Mr Ed , Apt Approach has a big reputation and at odds against is worth entertaining albeit in a massive field which is better suited to laying than backing. Will I rue this afterwards? HAYDOCK Another high quality field full of Cheltenham potential horses. 105 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wichita Lineman, 3/1 Special Envoy, 9/2 Lough Derg, 7/1 Chief Dan George, 8/1 Kasbah Bliss, 12/1 No Refuge, 25/1 Accordello . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Luckless Special Envoy is better than he showed behind Lough Derg at Ascot but the return to this trip should enable WICHITA LINEMAN to stamp himself as a credible alternative to Inglis Drever in next month's World Hurdle Again, like Oscar Park and Gold Award, a good run is expected by Wichita Lineman if his World Hurdle credentials are to remain in tact. Currently a question mark about market support behind him, now showing at 9/4, with Special Envoy at 3's and a price gap to the others at 7's. You can take the chance that Wichita Lineman will enhance his reputation by a straight win bet, but those more safety minded would have to include Special Envoy in a level stakes dutch. Remember though, this is a high quality field and this is no gimme but I feel is worthy of inclusion. KEMPTON 920 BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Basalt, 3/1 Alnwick, 6/1 Trachonitis, 8/1 Right Option, 10/1 Abounding, 16/1 Linden Lime, 25/1 Riff Raff, Savannah, 33/1 First Friend . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BASALT (nap) has quickly emerged as a useful prospect on AW and ought to possess the class to successfully shoulder a big weight at this level. C&D winner Alnwick can chase him hom Alnwick to place ( or create a break even bet by putting the potential place only winnings onto the horse to win. Basalt may win but he's shouldering a penalty after winning 2 ( although Rapidity isn't helping my cause with this!) UTTOXETER A difficult card WINCANTON 130 BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Song Of Songs, 4/1 Turfshuffle, 6/1 Hot Diamond, 12/1 Southern Regent, 16/1 Zaif, 25/1 Magic Rush, Piamontini, 33/1 Stark Contrast, 50/1 Mae Cigan, Peau Aime, Think Lucky, 66/1 Recalcitrant, Travelling Fox, 100/1 Bull Market, Lydlinch, Master Halling, Tanktastic, 200/1 Bowl Of Cherries . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see what the market makes of newcomers Southern Regent and Turfshuffle, both of whom hold Cheltenham entries, but SONG OF SONGS, who could also figure at the festival, sets a very good standard and can defy a penalt Quantity over quality? 14 horses at 28/1 or bigger leaves Song of Songs, Turf Shuffle, Hot Diamond and Southern Regent Another who must really win to enhance his Cheltenham chances in Song of Songs. Another level stakes dutch on Song of songs, Turf, Southern, and Hot Diamond to stakes 10,10,4,6 leaves a slight loss on Song of songs, breakeven(ish) on Turfshuffle and decent profit on the other 2 - worth doing with the field size 240 and 310 - Nicholls/Heard could have a quick fire double on Arturio and NEptunes Collonges - speculative I know but both are price gappers. 415 BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Duc De Regniere, 11/10 Starzaan . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STARZAAN is the older horse with better form and Duc De Regniere the comparative youngster with major potential. It is an intriguing head-to-head, not least in terms of tactics, but Duc De Regniere will probably have to brush up his jumping Toss a coin - simple as that .The fav is only 5/6 because the bookie cannot price the horses at their correct odds - evens the both FOOTY Preference for me will be concentrating on the football today as I think it is a little more straightforward than the gee gee's today - short prices in high quality races have decent opposition. Werder Bremen, again worth an over 2.5 goal trade. I would prefer a neutral bet like this . Chelsea game and again I'll try an "Ajax" - enhance the 1.11 match odds somewhere else. Potential markets to look at - half time/full time ; chelsea to have a clean sheet; over 2.5 goals ; Wither ones of these bets enhances the 1.11 match odds and has a good chance of coming in. REmember, Chelsea never lose at home! Liverpool v Barnsley - 1.18 to win at home, but will they cock it up as is Liverpool's habit. Barnsley away from home have lost by 3 and 4 and2 in their last 3 away games without scoring. This does not augur well today, but which Liverpool side will play today? Rafa has a tendency to underestimate the ease a weakened Liverpool side might have. I'm going to try a little something today - 1st goal odds - 11-20 minutes and 21-30 minutes are priced at 4.6 and 5.9 and are worthy of level stakes support. .As long as there isn't a goal in the first 10 minutes we have a chance. 1.58 to over 2.5 goals looks reasonable enough, again to trade as well. Gretna v Motherwell has a good chance of over 2.5 goals given Gretna do tend to score at home rather than away. Man Utd v Arsenal is mouthwatering.Winning margin bet of 0 and 1 looks reasonable given past history. £8 on no goals and £12 on 1 goal spreads the profit in a game it's difficult to get an angle into

.

15 FEB

Ribery, Ribery, wherefore art thou Ribery? was the question on most Bayern backers' minds yesterday as Aberdeen held Bayern to a draw at Pittodrie and so went my half time/full time and mug punter acca. Where was Frank Ribery - I can only assume he was injured - a world class player missing and the one man I wanted to see last night(and I'm sure the ladies wanted to glimpse at his Ian Dowie like good looks)

At least I bet in the knowledge that there is no such thing as a sure thing and within the constraints of a predertermined staking plan - as I'm sure you do too!

At least the Spuds didn't disappoint for those of you who took the option to back them at a tast 1.83 (1.73 at the off!) - guess who scored - Berbatov and Keane! Well I did get Miroslav Klose for Bayern yielding a marginal profit as he was backed along with Luca"offside"Toni.

Whatever angle you took in the Spuds game you would have profitted.

Ma Yahab won which was good for the place only bet. Stolen Moments so nearly obliged for those willing to level stake the 3 main contenders and leave a hefty profit on that one.

THe dutch was undone by Black Ven and I was angry with myself - the only other horse under double figure odds should have been included into any analysis of the race - sloppy!

BLackcatblackkitten won again but alas I thought this would be a more difficult assignment. SO near with the fun placepot as favs obliged or placed apart from the first race which was 11/4 the field.

Local Poet traded at 1.4 in running in a ding dong battle (so the odds told me!) with Louisiade who eventually won - A break even bet for me there on Local Poet who did as much as I could ask.

With Drumcovis a non runner m each way bet was voided (by me!). CAndy GIrl lost - either the ground or the horse is not as good as J'yvole and Pomme Tiepy

FAKENHAM - GOOD GROUND

225
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Oscar Park, 4/1 Contact Dancer, 10/1 Delightful Cliche, 11/1 Autumn Red, 12/1 Felix Rex, 14/1 Menelaus, 100/1 Homeleighwildchild .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OSCAR PARK would have to win this in some style for it to be worth his while taking up a Royal & SunAlliance engagement next month but he had shaped pretty well until departing on his chasing debut and is given another chance. Felix Rex is the other to hold that big-race entry but Contract Dancer is nominated as the danger because of his chasing experience.

It would seem that if Oscar Park stays on his feet he wins but recent form of a fall and unseating rider in 2 of the last 3 hardly inspires confidence. Price gap has increased in the early market and anyone wanting to side with Oscar Park who, positively, did draw clear of other horses before unseating, will hope he stays on his feet to justify his big entry at Cheltenham. I will chance this time with the longer trip hopefully in the horse's favour, and with the fact the horse HAS to really win I hope this will be enough.

There are those who see the form and think - trust this one over 3 miles - you're having a giraffe! Well the odds for the next 3 are currently 8/1, 8/1 and 10/1 so a crafty shilling on each will cover any more falls from the favourite.

255
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gansey, 9/4 Georgian King, 9/2 Rock Wren, 7/1 Johnny Bissett, 10/1 By George, 20/1 Lord Appellare, Rathmulen, Shampers, 100/1 Lucky Pearl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROCK WREN left his previous efforts miles behind when second at Leicester last time and, with the form working out well, is given the chance to show that wasn't a fluke. Gansey has to be feared back down in class, while Georgian King is another plausible contender judged on his bumper form and his reputation at home.[

9 in contention here, 2 at 66/1 and 100/1, 1 at 25/1 which we can dismiss (I hope) bringing the field down to 6 runners, 3 of whom will place. Rock Wren for me looks placed to place! Always concern when you see the Walsh /Nicholls combo but Rock Wren ,3rd provisional betting forecast fav, could be competitive

LINGFIELD

215
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Boy On A Swing, 100/30 Silver Waters, 11/2 Rowan Rio, 9/1 Might Be Magic, 16/1 Nowzdetime, 40/1 Malt Empress, 50/1 Code Violation, 100/1 Honest Yankee .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOY ON A SWING (nap) sets a clear standard on form, is likely to appreciate the step up to 1m2f and should be hard to beat. Silver Waters looks the most dangerous opponent and the one to note in the market is the newcomer Rowan Rio

The striaght 8 here with 3 perceived outsiders narrowing the field to 5. With a short priced favourite we get reasonable odds on the other contenders and with Silver waters now showing at 11/2 he could place at least or take advantage if the favourite misfires.
NOTE - this is a maiden race.

355
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rapidity, 3/1 Oberlin, 9/2 Rockfield Tiger, 11/2 Vettorenjoy, 7/1 Hucking Hero, 14/1 Miss Mujanna, 16/1 Hansinger .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The front-runner Rapidity has strong claims seeking his fourth win this month and Oberlin is interesting off an appealing mark on his handicap debut but marginal preference is for ROCKFIELD TIGER, who produced a strong finishing burst to win on his reappearance over C&D last week.

To lay or not to lay? Not quite the 1/2 and shorter he went off last time, Rapidity is reappearing under a penalty again in search of the 4 timer in another handicap. Note this time the close proximity of other s price wise and the fact Rapidity is reappearing as an odds against shot. All clues that today may be the day for the lay , having called it too early last time out. Step up in grade and triple penalty may stop Rapidity today and I hope this is the race where he succumbs .

SANDOWN
205
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Squadron, 5/2 Crack Away Jack, Sonning Star, 14/1 Alaghiraar, 16/1 Cavalry Twill, Good Effect, 33/1 Diego Velasquez, Title Deed, 40/1 Pearl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Squadron will appreciate the return to lesser grade but will not find things easy under maximum penalty, particularly against Sonning Star and CRACK AWAY JACK, who looks the type to improve again

The mistake I made with yesterdays dutch was evident - I ignored a horse under 14/1. This time there are 3 most likely here and in Squadron we have a fav that perhaps we can take on.
As things stand, with Betfair prices currently 3.05, 3.8 and 4.2 we can back again to level stakes and break even on a penalty carrying Squadron.
Yes another juvenile novices hurdle which I've been having a head scratcher with - we have 3 rivals in Alaghiraar and Cavalry Twill and Goof Effect and hopefully our 3 can run to their prices with no immediate ground concerns.
WOLVES
Has been devilishly difficult of late. I have managed to find winners via my 3 into 1 system, albeit at restrictive odds but, hey, a winner's a winner.



FOOTY
I have been following Le Havre with a passing interest and at 9/10 away from home the may be worth support - they certainly have a chance tonight and probably a lay of Gueugnon would be better for me to cover the draw in a French ligue 2 game whose teams I am not familiar with .

Ajax when odds on at home are always worth a 2nd glance regardless of price (here 1/6) so we can look at getting the old weapons out to increase the match odds and give us a chance to boost profits.
SParta are coming on the back of 2 straight home defeats by a single goal. Away from home they've won one and lost one and scored in both games.
Ajax have won all bar one of their last 4 home matches( the loss came to PSV) - they have scored 2 or more on 3 of those occasions which augurs well tonight.
Interesting head to heads scream over 2.5 goals tonight - Ajax have put 11 past Sparta in their last 2 home encounters with away results 2-2 and 3-0.

A look into over 2.5 goals and it's trading at 1.4! Unbelievable scenes! If we can assume this is correct, then a venture into over 3.5 goals might be wise - 1.9 is better odds and with the possibillity of trading this is a speculative but wiser choice I feel at better odds.
Another tradeable option is any unquoted on the Correct score market, BUT this presumes Ajax will score 4 or Sparta will score 2 to Ajax's 3.

Rather than dutch the half time/full time markets ( those with greater caution may want to) a straight back of Ajax at 1.65 to win both halves may be a good way to enhance the 1.21 odds.

15 FEB

14 FEB

Love is in the air, as well as a bit of lovely moolah thanks to some unexpected victories.
At Fairyhouse Almanyan and Lugato shared 1st and 2nd place

Drumconvis was impossible to oppose yet went down by the narrowest of margins at 1.3 - key words - monitor in running - I always try to nick 0.10 points in running especially when a horse is priced so short. The idea is that the horse WILL be competitive at the business end and the odds will reduce to show that. So MR Spotlight - there is no such thing as a "virtual certainty"

At KEmpton, Mr Chocolate Drop won at 5/1 (bigger on BEtfair) which was a huge surprise - he was a rather throw away each way punt in the hope of placing at least.

I tried a couple of lays yesterday - Zacharova lost and the odds went up, naturally, in running so no problems getting the lay neutralised by backing to win stakes back. Interestingly Muttley Maguire came 3rd at 22/1 - flagged up earlier with the caveat that I was to entertain a bet at 16/1 - D'oh! - obviously the horse was quietly fancied to perform coming back from a lay off, and I have no doubt somebody made a tidy wedge from each way betting a 22/1 shot!(bigger , MUCH bigger, on Betfair)

Whistling Straits won but hit 10 in running and 5's intermittently allowing the lay at shorter prices to be backed at higher prices.

Great to get Samuel Charles beaten at 11/8 SP - 2 neck wins did not convince me at all.

Poseidon placed and his odds dropped throughout the day making the 1.76 for the place early doors very appealing with hindsight

ALas the dutch went south, not helped by NElsons Column, 33/1 in the betting forecast opened up at 14/1 and placed - another 16/1 system selection I couldnt highlight when I wrote the blog

Valain placed in the race won by Halla San.

I was pleased with my reading of the Rangers game - half time/Full time bets came in and I backed Rangers at half time as the game stayed 0-0 and cheered them on but the goal wouldn't come !
No problems with Werder Bremen, 2-0 up at half time and 3-0 final score

Sequencing again showed its effectiveness as a betting tool in the Hibs game as Gretna scored away from home after last 3 aways were goalless - infact they scored 2.
Hibs ended their winless sequence as expected by scoring 4, allowing half time/full time and over 2.5 goal bets to come in.
All in all a fantastic day for me, very pleasing.
As you would expect with Valentines day I have my mind on Kelly Brook so this may affect my decisions today

CHEPSTOW - GOOD TO SOFT
220
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Michael Muck, 7/4 Ma Yahab, 9/4 Stolen Moments, 20/1 Freeline Fury, 50/1 Coolavanny Lad, 66/1 Delaneys Triumph .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ma Yahab is arguably the form pick on his fine Doncaster handicap third but it may pay to forgive MICHAEL MUCK his off day last time and give him another chance on a track where he has already won twice, including on his chasing debut

Small field - 3 set to dominate - you know the drill - we can either select one we think will place only, or dutch 2 in the hope the 2 we select will include the winner ( barring accidents enabling the 3 bigger priced horses to become competitive)

The obvious contenders at this stage are Michael Muck and Ma Yahab who can be backed with level stakes and produce a return.
Alternatively back the front 3, leaving a handsome profit on Stolen Moments and slight losses on both Michael Muck and MA Yahab.
We actually get reasonable odds for the place - currently 1.43, 1.51 and 1.9 for Michael, Yahab, and Stolen respectively.
Obvious contender would be the middle man at 1.51 Ma Yahab.

These are observations made now and we don't know if Stolen Moments will come for money or not.
this is a probability race and by either selecting one to place, or backing 2 and leaving one out, we have a 66% chance of victory

250
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Piste Aux Etoiles, 7/2 Crescent Island, 7/1 King Caine, 8/1 Black Ven, 14/1 Mr Excel, 16/1 Krackatara, 20/1 Azione, 25/1 Ronan The Warrior, 33/1 Just Paddy, 40/1 Colonial Jim, 50/1 Leading Article, 66/1 Gemgaballou, 100/1 Radmores Revenge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PISTE AUX ETOILES has some decent form in France and can make the most of his 4yo allowance. Crescent Island looks the one to beat despite a penalty.[PJ]

novice hurdles have been a bit hit and miss for me - I dutch the 2 market leaders and they come nowhere - I decide to go speculative and the 2 market leaders consent to win!
Here I will back the first 3 using betfair prices and a staking policy of £10,£10,£4 on Piste, Cresent Island and king Kaine -at current prices 2.4, 3.25 and 7.2, this leaves me with break even on Piste aux etoiles .
7 horses are 50/1 or bigger here so the field has immediately reduced to 6 most likely, of which we are covering 3.

KELSO
SOFT GROUND

305 - the straight 8 reduced to 7 but Betfair will still pay out 3 the place.
Strong resolve is in with a shout albeit at around 1.59 to place.
Again those of a disciplined nature will really leave Kelso and its soft ground (likely to get testier through the day) alone

NAD AL SHEEBA

410 - interesting to see Blackcatblackkitten in again as favourite but I think we got the win last time.

600
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Honour Devil, 7/4 Etched, 7/1 My Indy, 10/1 Aquino, Numaany, Royal Vintage, 20/1 Siberian Tiger, 25/1 Ablaan, 33/1 Free Tussy, Paveroc, 66/1 Change Alley, Mutabayen, New Jersey, Palm Court, Toolittleyourlate, 250/1 Choisky,

A chance perhaps to dutch the first 2 against the field, BUT this is a class 3, there are some quality animals in opposition and this is a 16 runner event with a lot of 1's spread throughout the form columns
BUT 8 of the field are 33/1 or bigger and the shortest price outside the front 2 is 9/1 - a big price gap.
My mind will be made up nearer the off I think as any potential market moves become apparent, but as things stand, the dutch of the front 2 is on.

A card at Nad al Sheeba where there are predominantly short priced favourites. On a going day in these quality class races, odds can be generally relied upon. A placepot bet on the market leaders may yield something, but, probability wise, one or 2 of the shorties will disappoint.

SOUTHWELL

315
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Louisiade, 5/1 Local Poet, Stepaside, 7/1 Shifty, 8/1 Music Celebre, 12/1 Lily La Belle, 33/1 Pre Eminance, 50/1 Art Of Being .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Reliability is half the battle with these selling platers and LOUISIADE, who has been in decent form for his new yard this winter, looks the safest option this time. Any market confidence behind Music Celebre would look interesting now dropped to selling company

A seller on the all weather - Gawd help us all!
A possible price gapper - with Stepaside a non runner this markedly improves Louisade's chances. PRice gap remains and the fav is showing , now, as odds on - top RPR, top topspeed, form 1312, placing and consistency on show here - very important for sellers. Won by a neck, 2nd by a head most recently - hardly convincing victories /2nd's
Art of Being and Pre eminance look priced not to get involved reducing the field of those most likely to 5. Can Lily la belle at 16/1 be discounted - if so then reduces the field to 4 most likely.
I'll take the fav on with Local Poet each way (on BEtfair) currently 1.43 to place is reasonable enough given the market pays out for 3 still on Betfair. With narrow margins in Louisade's last 2 races and a penalty to carry today, the horse may be vulnerable ( like Samuel Charles yesterday)
From a betting perspective, I would, for example, back Local Poet to place for ,say , £10 -profit £4.30. I would transfer that £4.30 as stake on the horse to win at 5.1. Effectivel a break even bet if the horse places ( and probability wise he should)

THURLES
SOFT GROUND
My close show biz pal Drumcovis looks to be running again today before his mandatory 20lbs penalty is enforced.
A hard race yesterday in trying to get back Macalpine at 1/3, he's not for me today
Indteads, Condara and Alphazar are the only 2 horses below 10/1 and can be backed each way in opposition to Drumcovis - the bet will not be done if Drumcovis is a non runner which might happen given the soft ground.

430 - mention must go with Willy Mullin's mare Candy Girl ,after Pomme Tiepy and J'y Vole have impressed - priced restrictively ,with Ruby in the saddle, may be worth entertaining a back bet TO MONITOR IN RUNNING, given the soft ground. I am basing the bet purely on the form of Willie Mullin's mares and nothing else.

WOLVES
Another tough card - a couple of shorties but nothing stand out



FOOTY

I read in yesterday's Racing Post that Aberdeen have a min injury crisis - this may have been evident in the weekend drubbing by the Bhoys. More looks on the cards against a Bayern Munich side featuring the likes of Frank" male model" Rubery.
The hope is that BAyern play their strongest 11, and if so, should dominate.Odds of 1.44 in the amtch odds market is very reasonable given Aberdeen's sick notes, and those who want a trading option can do no worse than back Bayern and lay off after they (hopefully) have scored the first goal.
Increasing the odds options include Bayern/Bayern and Draw/Bayern on the half time/full time markets , again level stakes, and, with Celtic's drubbing of Aberdeen on their patch at the weekend, an over 2.5 goals bet/trade looks worth entertaining. At 1.87, very reasonable.
Those more ambitiously minded and back both Luca "offside -AGAIN!" Toni and Miroslav Close to score. If only one scores, you'll get a sligth payout - if both score - it'll be jackpot day.
Odds of 2.04 and 2.26 allow this.

My one hope tonight is to see Frank Ribery on the field - he is superb and will cause havoc if he plays - it will strengthen confidence in my bets

With all the injuries at Aberdeen, this is the obvious match to concentrate on tonight.

I doubt Slavia Prague's opposition in thei domestic league is quite the calibre of the opposition the Spuds have been facing

A straight lay of Slavia looks worthwhile, albeit at slightly big odds. Those with more faith can back Spurs at 1.83 in the straight match odds market.

Again, the half time/full time market is of interest, if we can take the 1.83 match odds as an accurate reflection of the chances.
Spurs/Spurs , Draw/Spurs, Draw/Draw represents a reasonable bet - to level stakes, we get a nice payout on the Draws and break even on Spurs /Spurs

Shade of odds on normally means a tight game with the edge going to the odds on side. As long as they don't concede either half (to no reply) we have a good chance

A look at Slavia's recent 6 matches and they don't seem full of goals, never scoring more than 1 ,so if Spurs can get a goal then the hope is they will draw worst case.

MUG PUNTER ACCA

I went for one last night but didn't feel too confident to share it
Laid Livorno v Milan, backed Werder Bremen, laid Helsingborg v PSV and laid Gretna v Hibs.
It came off well, and the key to victory was laying Livorno who snuck a 1-1 draw at Milan!

If we take Bayern as a give ( and there's no reason why they shouldn't win) then back them with a lay of Slavia, we can pump the odds up to 1.67

1	Aberdeen v B Munich (Backing B Munich @ 1.42)
2	Slavia Prague v Tottenham (Laying Slavia Prague @ 6.38)

Doubles
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1 and 2	1.67	£100.00	£67.00

It looks like Spurs don't have an engagement at the weekend because of the Cup games so can be fully concentrated and play a strong side tonight

13 FEB

Captain Tidds was a speculative punt in the hope that he was a market mover but he didn't place

Polinamix won. Wild Ground won well, as did Ignotus.

I was disappointed with 2 selections yesterday - having already pointed out the tight price market in the 410 I still went for a selection when the better option was to lay the favourite given the tightness of the race. Aunty kathleen unplaced there. Similarly , Another Promise - let's look again at the negatives "NEGATIVES - 292 day absence to overcome - new jockey Timmy Murphy has never ridden him before - this is an 18 runner field and a handicap hurdle. -" - plenty there for a short price lay - new jockey -nearly a year off - I did say it screamed out for each way thievery and should have stayed with that position given the nice prices available.

West Brom decided not to score. I suppose a bit better research was in order given the article in the Post about Bryan Robson's current pressures and the Blade's obvious change of strategy in NOT LOSING this one.

FAIRYHOUSE
(Soft - Heavy in places)
345
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Blaze Trailer, Double Attraction, 4/1 Roundofapplause, 6/1 Almanyan, Lugato, 10/1 Liffey Side, 12/1 Erritt Lodge, 14/1 Ballymac Grey, Snow Tempest.

A wide open race if the betting forecast is a good indicator. I'll chance Almanyan and Lugato each way just outside the front 3. 4/1 the field in the early market is indicative of a tight race so a slightly speculative approach can be taken

415
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Drumconvis, 13/2 Mhilu, 8/1 Orimed Des Ifs, 10/1 Flamenco Prince, 12/1 Freemantle Doctor, 14/1 Free Speech, Origine De Sivola, Soft Spoken, 16/1 Fabien, Selection Box, Tailor Bill, 20/1 Buachaill On Eirne, Macra Na Feirme, Symphonist, 25/1 Druid´s Chair, Winter Star ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DRUMCONVIS is impossible to oppose. Set to be raised 20lb after winning with contemptuous ease over 2m3f at Naas on Saturday, he is able to compete with just a mandatory 6lb extra. Barring a mishap of the type that proved the undoing of his stablemate Psycho when set to trot up at Leopardstown on Sunday, he looks a virtual certainty. The case in his favour is underlined by the fact that runner-up Dashing George can be regarded as a good current yardstick (it was his fourth successive time to finish in the first two), and this trip looks ideal for the former point-to-point winner who found 2m inadequate when fifth to Major Sensation at Leopardstown.\n I'll rue this but I will rely on Spotlight here and back Drumconvis accordingly, with the caveat that I will monitor in running KEMPTON 620 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Maraagel, 9/2 Wizby, 5/1 Mr Chocolate Drop, 13/2 Montzando, 7/1 Lawdy Miss Clawdy, Tang, 9/1 Baba Ghanoush, 20/1 Coastal Breeze, 40/1 Doctor Ned . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MARAAGEL has found a bit of form recently and gets the vote despite not being proven over this far. Mr Chocolate Drop and Wizby have been in contention plenty of times recently over at least this far and should be again.[ 2 horses, at this early stage at 20/1 and 40/1 reduce the field of likely candidates to 7, 3 of whom will place. I will opt for Mr Chocolate Drop each way here -he looks likely to be threatening for a place at least LEICESTER - Good to Soft 200 BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Zacharova, 7/1 Can´t Buy Time, The Ring, 10/1 Massini Sunset, Molostiep, 12/1 Gerrard, 16/1 Donald Will Do, Kentmere, Solarias Quest, 20/1 Et Maintenant, 25/1 Easter Present, Muttley Maguire, 33/1 Parish Oak, Thenford Flyer, 40/1 Olival, 100/1 Log On Intersky . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If Zacharova is in the same form as last week, he will take plenty of stopping, even under a penalty, but a field this size will test his mettle. Can't Buy Time and The Ring have claims but this trip looks ideal for MOLOSTIEP and he is given the vote Potential price gapper here in Zacharova POSITIVES - price gap maintained in early market - TOP RPR - Postdata selection - 8 from 14 tipsters - NEGATIVES - big field of 16 runners - won in a small field last time out over longer distance - running under a penalty I'm going to lay Zacharova this time - in 2 starts prior to the last where he got his act together his jumping was none too consistent, so a lay to monitor in running and back at a higherprice is my call here. I can see an error somewhere. A note for Muttley Maguire - 25/1 in the betting forecast, currently 16/1 in the live market - could be a stable gamble based on the fact he's coming back from a 807 day absence and won twice and came 2nd in his last 5 races prior to that. All the hall marks of a potential good run? I'll ned to see that 16/1 nearer the off but he's the only one with a significant price move at this stage. 400 BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Whistling Straits, 11/2 Balau, 6/1 Euryalus, 8/1 Cash In Hand, 10/1 Vic´s Last Chance, 12/1 Cullen Road, 14/1 Highland Vasco, 20/1 Mister Bloom, 33/1 Present Moment, Quarry Road, 50/1 Pagans Dancer, 100/1 Springwood White, Story Arms . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those with hunter chase experience are nothing special and this looks booked for WHISTLING STRAITS (nap), who can outclass his rivals if mastering the fences at the first time of asking.[JN] Favourites in hunter chases are always worth laying I think - a debutant over these fences. With so many presumed no hopers, each way candidates ( rather than laying) include Balau and Euryalus LINGFIELD 140 Samuel Charles Record in AW claimers over the years is an impressive 141241521221151 and in good order at present winning his last two starts; no problem with conditions, stable going well and likely to go well once more. From a sequencing perspective, Samuel Charles has not posted 3 consecutive wins. His last 2 wins have both been by a neck -hardly convincing. With the money coming for Pab Special, he is another lay for me today to back at a higher price in running. MUSSELBURGH 150 BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Middleton Dene, 11/8 Logans Run, 12/1 Poseidon, 33/1 La Pantera Rosa, Raysrock, Vulcan Pilot, 40/1 Silver Destiny, 100/1 Fair Kald, More Equity . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIDDLETON DENE sets a high standard for hurdling newcomer Logans Run, but the Johnson recruit does get 10lb and made an excellent start in Irish bumpers, so will be interesting if he is backed. Both have Cheltenham entrie With Middleton Dene out ,this opens the doors wide open for Logans Run and he is priced accordingly. poseidon looks the obvious each way candidate still with 8 runners. Better payout at the bookies if he places, currently 1.76 in the place market. Probably a better place only bet which pays more than the win (1.4) on Logans Run ( will Jenny Aggutter make an appearance in that revealing futuristic get up? - hope so!) 220 BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Akarem, Sutherland Belle, 100/30 Compromiznotension, 6/1 Marsam, 15/2 Mutawaffer, 9/1 Luna Landing, 20/1 Grand Opera, 33/1 Nelsons Column, 40/1 Karaburan, 50/1 Montchara, 100/1 Filey Buoy, Musical Giant, 150/1 Mr Twins, 200/1 Soul Angel . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Akarem and Irish challenger Sutherland Belle look serious contenders but they may have to give best to COMPROMIZNOTENSION, who came up against a couple of above-average types here last month and is open to further improvement I'll chance backing Akarem, Sutherland Belle and Compromiznotension to level stakes on BEtfair - returns about evens . With Mutawaffer out, Marsam is the fly in the ointment 350 BETTING FORECAST: Evs Halla San, 5/1 Valain, 13/2 Folk Tune, 8/1 Stainley, 10/1 Masafi, 12/1 Soubriquet, 16/1 Calculaite, Pilca, 25/1 Film Festival . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HALLA SAN (nap) did the job stylishly over C&D last time on his second hurdles start and looks to have a good opportunity to add this handicap. Valain's improved sequence in Ireland, prior to a lesser effort last time, is respected and he could be the chief danger. Foe me, Valain and Folk tune each way - the only 2 horses not in double figures A different complexion today, with some lays and speculative each way plays. Probably too many selections today. If I was to be picky today, then Poseidon to place in the 150 Musselburgh and the dutch in the 220 Musselburgh would be my strongest plays ( the latter may change with any market move, especially with the "fly in the ointment" horse The lays I'll do in running, not as straight lays as I think during the race the horses may meet trouble, either from opponents (on the flat) or the obstacles ( on the jumps)

FOOTY

Some UEFA Cup matches tonight may offer some betting opportunities. The majority of the games are priced to be very tight affairs and these are best left alone.
Werder Bremen interest me at home against Braga in a game which they should comfortably win - the price of 3/10 assumes this too. The gulf in class should ensure victory and the potential for a half time/full time Werder Bremen bet. They just need to score one in the first half to no reply for the bet to overcome the first hurdle and then win the 2nd half for the bet to come to fruition.

Panathinaikos won 1-0 at the weekend at home in a game they were priced up at 1/5 on. Does this offer hope for Rangers? I think it may . In fact, Panathinaikos have found it difficult to score of late domestically. The last time they scored 2 was against the mighty ,erm, Asteris Tripolis, and ,yes they have scored in each of their last 6, but only the one goal. In a weak league ,for a giant like Panathinaikos not to be beating the likes of Veria convincingly may mean there is some problem in the attacking 3rd.
Rangers are easily ahead of a lot of the opposition the Greeks have faced recently and have home advantage. I'll back them in the match odds market at half time if 0-0. This may be tight early on but Rangers, as has become a habit in Europe, have had a tendency to score late. Draw/Rangers and Draw/Draw may offer some value ( the more cautious and the cautiously optimistic may like to include Rangers/Rangers into the dutch in the half time/full time market)

In Scotland Hib's sequence of 4 losses on the trot was ended with a draw at Dundee United - a sequence I wish I had seen at the weekend. With no win in their last 6, and priced at 2/5 against Gretna , this is an ideal time to break the winless sequence they are on - playing at home as well.
Gretna have been unable to score in their last 3 away matches - another sequence that might end? If so then over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet. The most recent encounter ,though, was 0-1 to Hibs at Gretna but was this just home advantage helping Gretna?

I hope the Hibs lack of confidence with the recent run doesn't affect them tonight. I am going purely on price here (2/5) that the winless sequence looks like it is priced to end tonight

For a £34 outlay (example stake) we can back the half time/full time in the following staking
£16, £10, £8 on Hibs/Hibs, Draw/Hibs and Draw/Draw at odds of 2.14, 4.9, 8.2 and break even on the first bet but profit nicely if the latter 2 come in. Draw/Draw is included because of Hibs recent form

12 FEB

Verasi won, just about in a race of fallers. Rapidity won again - it's so frustrating trying to call when the winning sequence will end - watch out soon - remember Confidentiality! We need to wait for the handicapper to take a hand, and see a slight increase in odds which may imply more difficulty in getting the 4 timer.
Slight loss on the ASians thanks to Adebayour!. Again, another example of sequencing - revolving around Blackburn's recent draws and the fact they drew with the Arse last time. This ended last night, and laying the draw would have paid off. The half time/full time dutch came in

FOLKSTONE
GOOD TO SOFT

130
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Aux Le Bahnn, 5/2 Another Brother, 9/2 Double Shot, Inghwung, 20/1 Captain Tidds, Funny Fellow, 33/1 Selfcertified, 66/1 Blue Rebel, 100/1 Mysaynoway, 150/1 Mustamad, Political Dissent, Reynards Return, Rockmoor Pond, Surely Keen .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AUX LE BAHNN ran as though needing the race back from another break on his hurdle debut here last time but he ought to be capable of better and confirm the form with Another Brother, especially if the ground dries out.

A possible dutch on the first 2 here to level stakes although this is a maiden hurdle. It looks a 4 horse race, but we need to check for any 16/1 system bets.
Captain Tidds is currently 14/1 and is the only real market mover. Given the race type , I will try each way on him, mindful that we ideally need to see a replication of this price nearer the off.
More speculative but as a maiden hurdle, these races can sometimes surprise.

230
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Polinamix, 5/4 Treasury Counsel, 12/1 Safari Adventures, 20/1 Silver Serg, 25/1 Knock Boy, 33/1 El Batal .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Polinamix put up a decent effort when giving unavailing chase to Noland here last month but TREASURY COUNSEL should also have plenty to offer at this level after progressing really well over hurdles and is forgiven his second-fence blip on his Kempton chase debut in November.[

Mindful of the fact this is 2 mile 5 and a beginners chase, it should, barring falls, concern the front 2, and again, level stakes will produce a small profit on Polinamix and about £6 profit for £10 level stakes on Treasury Counsel.

330
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Wild Ground, 5/1 Kisha King, 12/1 Star Glow, Victree, Walton Way, 14/1 Buckland Gold, 16/1 Another Chat, Rowley Hill, 25/1 Brave Broncho, 33/1 Red Ensign, Sett Aside, Ushnu, 50/1 Carriage Ride, Runshan, 66/1 Flying Druid, Sharbasia .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wild Ground will be popular after her runaway win last week but there is a slight question mark over her stamina and she may be worth taking on with KISHA KING who represents a yard with a good record of improving purchases out of other stables

Possible price gapper - 6/4 early morning prices with next rival at 8/1 now Kisha King a non runner -
POSITIVES - top RPR. top TOPSPEED, 12 of 14 tipsters' choices, form 32121, course winner, POSTDATA selection, James Davies has ridden the horse before, no ground concerns - good ground

NEGATIVES - Spotlight is hardly glowing here , citing possible stamina doubts but the October race he mentions was in heavy ground after a lay off. The horse has run the distance before and has been around 2 1/2 miles recently. If handled correctly there is no reason why he should not see out the trip in better ground today with a jockey who knows him well. - 15 runner field -possibility of accidents

A decent enough bet, but 3 miles is a long way to hold my stake! - Worth a chance I think - preference for place only

NEWCASTLE

GOOD TO SOFT - MORNING INSPECTION

Some concern with morning inspection because of frost.
140
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Best Prospect, 5/2 Noble Alan, 7/2 Ignotus, 15/2 Mutawaffer, 16/1 Jamestown Bay, 20/1 Description, Oscar Gogo, Pre Token, Veiled Applause, 25/1 Rainbow Zest, 33/1 Bonneta, 66/1 College Land Boy, 100/1 Ambit, The Real Alydaly, Vie A Deux, 200/1 Classic Act .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ignotus caught the eye of the stewards at Catterick and must be rated better than the bare form, while Noble Alan has shown distinctly above-average form in bumpers and Mutawaffer showed a useful level of form on the Flat. However, BEST PROSPECT, having shaped with a lot of promise on his hurdling debut, is likely to prove hard to beat if none the worse for his fall last time

Another maiden hurdle and not a good betting prospect, but we can dutch the first 3 , currently priced on betfair at 3.55, 3.55, and 5.1 - I would use £10, £10, £5 leaving returns of £10, £10, £5.
Mutawaffer is the fly in the ointment and i would confirm selections near the off to account for market movers ( none at present)
As things stand ,we have a good chance of selecting the winner from Best Prospect, Ignatus, and Noble Alan

410
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Auntie Kathleen, Predestine, 5/1 Hold The Bid, Silent Bay, Trisons Star, 10/1 Low Reactor, Thorsgill, 14/1 Best China .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few in with a chance but this is best left to AUNTIE KATHLEEN, who finished in front of three of these rivals over C&D last time and who is lightly raced enough to be open to further improvement. [RY]

Auntie Kathleen each way - yes this is a very tight race but I remember the horse from previous runs and at an each way price should be competitive for at least a place ( caution -7/2, 7/2, 5/1,5/1,5/1 indicates how tight this really is)

440
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Another Promise, 10/1 Corrib Lad, 14/1 Cha Cha Cha Dancer, Kyathos, Polly Whitefoot, Wee Bertie, 20/1 Longdale, Windygate, 25/1 Buckstruther, Chapel Flowers, Sybarite Chief, 33/1 Baie Des Flamands, Ever Special, Fair Spin, Ragador, Thenford Sir, 66/1 Rudaki, The Masters Lesson .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from very smart and versatile chaser ANOTHER PROMISE, who is able to race from a 55lb lower hurdle mark and it'll be disappointing if he can't take care of some ordinary opposition on this reappearance run. Corrib Lad is also better treated over hurdles than fences and looks the chief threat

Another definite price gapper - now, as that irritating mid Atlantic accented Lloyd Grossman would say, " LEt's look at the evidence"
POSITIVES - price gap replicated in the early market with all other horses priced in double figures
"HARD TO GET AWAY FROM" - trigger words from Spotlight and there's no "ifs and buts" either. -top RPR - 10 from 13 tipsters' choices - postdata selection - knows how to win, form 21151 .

NEGATIVES - 292 day absence to overcome - new jockey Timmy Murphy has never ridden him before - this is an 18 runner field and a handicap hurdle. -

The absence is of some concern to me - why such a lengthy absence - there's no smoke without fire.
This race screams out for each way thievery, but who to chose?
As things stand, Another Promise is worth a chance , ideally place only, and ideally to monitor in running.
There are no immediate ground concerns which should affect coming back from a lay off.

ALL WEATHER -another tricky card.

2 potential price gappers each with evidence for and against - it is really up to you, not me, to weigh up this evidence and decide whether to back or entertain an each way option.

FOOTY
West Brom at 8/13 look worth entertaining this evening although the price indicates a tough affair. Smarting from their loss at the weekend ,there should be goal in this and perhaps an over 2.5 goals trade could offer an over evens alternative.

11/2

No problems as Group Captain and Working Title shared 1st and 2nd at Exeter. Rustarix played 2nd fiddle to Classic Fiddle with King Louis still running I think. Strawberry was a neck 2nd to My Petra.

Prime factor's win produced a near 2/1 return with some intelligent staking at Kempton . Snowy morning placed at Leopardstown. Well done to J'y Vole winning again up in class.

The winning margin bet in the MAnchester Derby precluded us from getting involved at short odds and gave us a neutral bet.

I want to look at the ASian bet again because I may have stumbled across something which can ensure us an involvement in all outcomes with worse case (in my case )£10 loss.

Man Utd -1.5 If Man Utd win by 2 or more £190.00
If Man Utd win by 1 £0.00
If Man Utd do not win by 2 or more -£200.00
BET 2
Man City +1.0&+1.5
If Man City draw or win £256.00
If Man Utd win by 1 £128.00
If Man Utd win by 2 or more -£200.00

Lt's look again at the 3 possible scenarios BET 1 Man Utd win by 2 or more PROFIT £190. BUT BET 2 If Man Utd win by 2 or more LOSS £200 NET LOSS £10 If Man UTD win by 1 - BET 1 BREAK EVEN STAKES RETURNED BUT BET 2 PROFIT £128 NET PROFIT £128 If Man City Win or Draw BET 1LOSS £200 BET 2 WIN £256 - NET PROFIT £56 Now surely this is a great bet? Or have I missed something? The Milan dutch went extremely well - first half no goals allowed market makers too question Milan's chances and respond by increasing the odds I got the Chelsea match right in the half time/full time market with a nice profit on Draw /Draw . SO much for 0-0 half time in the Real match - needless to say they scraped through by the odd goal in 7 and that was without horse face! Porto won 4-0 as a 1/12 shot should! PLUMPTON GOOD TO SOFT AND SOFT 240 BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Verasi, 3/1 Supreme Huntress, 6/1 Burren Legend, 25/1 The Speaker, 33/1 Master Alf . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Burren Legend and Supreme Huntress are pretty useful but the latter has not yet shown it over fences and VERASI, despite not having ideal conditions, should be hard to beat Another 2 horse race - interesting Supreme Huntress is around 7/4 morning prices. With current BEtfair prices again we can back both to level stakes and a small loss on Verasi with a just under evens return on Supreme Huntress - like Prime factor yesterday sometimes they come in! WETHERBY Good to soft BEgins with a fillies only maiden hurdle - erm, no thanks! Nothing appeals WOLVERHAMPTON 505 BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Rapidity, 9/2 Calistos Quest, 10/1 Bury Treasure, Hellfire Bay, 16/1 Marino Prince, 20/1 Carry On Cleo, John Potts, 25/1 Kiwi Princess . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Calistos Quest is a fascinating runner on his handicap debut/first run for Marco Botti but RAPIDITY should be up to defying a 12lb penalty. His Southwell win was achieved with the minimum of fuss and this longer trip should be within his rang I don't know whether I'm a couple of races early here in opposing Rapidity but the 12 lb hike in the weights ( yes a multiple handicap winner) puts me off. A lay for me to monitor in running FOOTY The Arsenal game is interesting today - Blackburn have drawn their last 3 but not faced any of the top 4 sides. last head to head of any meaning was 1-1 at Ewood Park. This would lead me to believe, from a sequencing perspective that the draw is worth laying tonight. With the added incentive of Chelsea drawing and Man Utd losing, Arsenal have all the motivation they need. Arsenal -1.0&-1.5 If Arsenal win by 2 or more If Arsenal win by 1 If Arsenal do not win £168.00 -£100.00 -£200.00 Blackburn +1.0&+1.5 If Blackburn draw or win If Arsenal win by 1 If Arsenal win by 2 or more £218.00 £109.00 -£200.00 Again, if Arsenal win by 1 goal net we profit £9 If Arsenal win by 2 or more , slight loss of £32 If Arsenal do not win, we profit by £18 Not a bad scenario? Poor returns though. I'm just thinking aloud here. Again, half time/full time is interesting here. Using staking of £20, 10, £5 or increments thereof ,we can back arse/Arse, Draw/Arse, and Draw/Draw (despite the sequences being against it) FOOTY The Arsenal game is interesting

10 FEB

I thought Newcatle wouldn't win at Villa but why did Michael Owen have to ensure they led at alf time - was it something I said? -A very frustrating state of affairs. Yet again, though, we had the opportunity in the match odds market to abck the draw or villa once Newcastle had taken the lead, taking advantage of the enhanced odds in the hope the game would end up as I predicted - ie Newcastle NOT winning.

Again Sunderland posted a 2-0 scoreline against Wigan, as they did with Birmingham at home. THe under 2.5 goal trade was a success early on and the importance of the game was there for all to see.

Lesson learned with the mug punter acca - East Fife, Scottish 3rd division - I went purely by odds. Stuttgart stumbled at home and in hindsight were actually priced too big - compare this to the lay of MAniaspor for example. Galatasary were 1.25 to win at home, Stuttgart were 1.79.
Everything else went like clockwork.

The dutch of the 1st 4 in the 115 Ayr came in with Prince Lanimix's win, and in Ace of SPies race, reaction to the live market was key - Throne of Power was a sustained gamble at 8/1 in the betting forecast going off at 3/1 with ACE OF SPIES drifting.
The dutches were successful, and the in running trade of Denman went like clockwork.
Basalt ended the night with a victory

EXETER -SOFT GROUND

230
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Group Captain, 7/4 Working Title, 13/2 Luxurix, 7/1 Laredo Sound, 14/1 Overclear, 25/1 Archie Gunn, Stagehand .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GROUP CAPTAIN hardly won doing handstands at prohibitive odds last time but he's the type who will raise his game in a better race, and he can head to Cheltenham with his unbeaten record intact. Working Title looked good at Fakenham and rates the main danger, though Laredo Sound can also make his presence felt.[AWJ]

AN unexciting level stakes dutch is available on the first 2 in this race -it's Group 1 listed and so we can be confident that the odds reflect the chances

405
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Classic Fiddle, 3/1 Rustarix, 5/1 Nor´Nor´East, 11/2 King Louis, 8/1 Keepthedreamalive, 14/1 Silver Sister, 100/1 Brave Jo, Farmer Brent, Flying Dick, Lord West, Montrolin .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not an easy choice between CLASSIC FIDDLE and Rustarix, but Nicky Henderson's mare looked a fairly safe conveyance on her chasing debut at Fontwell and the stiffer test that this track provides can bring about further improveme

Nor Nor east is a non runner. 5 of the horses ae 66/1 or bigger reducing the fiel of those most likely to 5 runners
King Louis and Rustarix each way for me. This is in the hope Classic Fiddle doesn't perform

HEREFORD
Good to soft

355
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 My Petra, 9/2 Strawberry, 11/2 Heart Springs, 14/1 The Sneakster, 16/1 Cailin Gruaig Dubh, 20/1 Outclass, 33/1 My Beautiful Loser .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look beyond MY PETRA, who was comfortably the best of these over hurdles and is with a trainer who can do little wrong at present.[SR]

The main protagonists are reduced to 2 following the absence of Heart Springs. "HArd to look beyond" - yes at 4/7 a reasona ble enough bet. I am very mindful though of Strawberry and the ideal is to include that horse in the equation
With the above in te back of my mind I will chance My Petra here as a single win bet. Those who want to adopt another perspective can back Strawberry to place at similar odds, OR you can create a bet where you win big on Strawberry and break even on My PEtra ( this is assuming the rest of the field are priced correctly.) - just play with the stakes if you want to do this.

At current prices of 1.66 and 3.9 , backing my Petra for £15 and Strawberry for £10 produces a 10p loss on My petra and £14 win on Strawberry

SOme likely dutches at KEmpton - perhaps the strongest being in the 2nd maiden race at 310
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Autumn Blades, 9/4 Prime Factor, 10/1 Honest Value, Mr Rev, 25/1 Tiepie, 66/1 Hiss And Boo, 100/1 Easily Naimd .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AUTUMN BLADES’s attitude has come into question in some quarters but he did little wrong last time and sets a decent standard with the drop in trip unlikely to trouble him. Prime Factor looks the only real danger. Again, straight level stakes leaves an 80p loss on AUtumn Blades and £19.50 win on Prime factor. Of course you may like to switch the profit round. CAUTION - this is a maiden race BUT this early on there have been no market movers (remember the ace of spies race) LEOPARDSTOWN Yielding ( I take this to mean heavy?) 245 - I may have missed the boat with J'y vole but will chance a win only bet here to monitor in running - a marked step up in grade is the sticking point though, and in yielding ground , those of a mopre disciplined nature will sit out Leopardstown. 350 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Listener, 9/2 Nickname, Snowy Morning, 11/2 Beef Or Salmon, 7/1 Turko, 10/1 Mister Top Notch, 20/1 Rule Supreme, 33/1 Hedgehunter . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The defection of Mossbank has possibly removed the most significant threat to THE LISTENER, who has relative youth on his side in his latest clash with the now 12-year-old Beef Or Salmon. Michael Hourigans's old warrior should make his huge advantage at the weights count over Snowy Morning, who may outstay Nickname to get into the first three. Top class race in prospect and, in previous races of this type in Ireland, the result is often not not was expected. Yielding ground is offputting.What can we glean from the early prices? - The Listener is currently at 9/4 - perhaps a slight drift? I will chance here Nickname and Snowy morning each way - Beef or Salmon is at that age where he should be enjoying Countdown . FOOTY WHy did I have to over elaborate in the Villa game yesterday - highly frustrating when the back of Villa was more enticing? The football today is intriguing and is probably the area I will focus on predominantly for my betting. 130 sees MAn Utd clash at home to MAn City. 2 contrasting fortunes -one part of Manchester are flying, the other stuttering and lacking any bite up front.Looking for anyhting special about the match, we can of course factor in the fact this is a local derby , and as such, takes on greater significance for both teams. Man Utd have won 5 from 6 , having drawn the last, while Man City are leaking points with 1 win, 2 losses and 3 draws. If we compare Man City's performance to a team of similar stature to United, we see they were beaten 3-1 by the Arse. The last 4 head to heads have produced 2 3-1's and 2 1-0's. I would favour a return to the 3-1 scoreline today for a Man Utd team firing on all cylinders In their current form ,City should have no chance but how important is the derby factor? It may mean the game is tighter than usual but I cannot see a 1-0 City scoreline and I cannot see United not scoring. 1 goals and 2 goals winning margin is dutchable ,albeit in a very illiquid market. Asians could offer us a chance of increasing the 1.3 in the match odds market Man Utd -1.5 If Man Utd win by 2 or more If Man Utd win by 1 If Man Utd do not win by 2 or more £190.00 £0.00 -£200.00 Man City +1.0&+1.5 If Man City draw or win If Man Utd win by 1 If Man Utd win by 2 or more £256.00 £128.00 -£200.00 £200 stakes here as an example. Let's look at the scenarios If Man Utd win by 2 or more we £190 from bet one and lose £200 from bet 2 ( -£10) If Man Utd win by 1 we break even bet one and win £128 bet 2 (profit £128) If Man City draw or win, we lose £200 from bet 1 and win £256 from bet 2 (profit of £56) Now have I missed something or is the worst case scenario £10 loss? COmbining 2 asians may be a new concept worth following? Milan at home to Siena may be worth laying for the early part of the game. Siena are coming off the back of a thumping of Roma and will have their tales up. Milan have a couple of 1-0's under htheir belts and may find it difficult to break through. Porto away from home at 1/12 - signals goals? - it's the Carlsberg Cup, probably the most exciting cup in, erm, Portugal. Over 2.5 goals is 1.57 in a very illiquid market. It's not really caught BEtfairians imaginations! Chelsea v Liverpool - again following on from my January article we have the pattern of Chelsea NOT losing at home.Priced at 5/6 the home side this indicates it may be tight but the home team expected to at least draw. Half time /full time is my way in (at least Michael Owen isn't playing!) and CHelsea/Chelsea, Draw/Chelsea and Draw/Draw are all backable as the shortest odds are 3.45. I could lay Liverpool straight atodds of 5. Real MAdrid have a superb opportunity to consolidate at the top of La Liga after Barca got a draw yesterday. They are priced to do so against Vallodolid, and I expect them to win. I'm going to follow this game in running I think, as Real have often flattered to deceive in the first half of games and frustrated home fans. If 0-0 at half time, I'll pop on at enhanced odds.

9FEB

Oh novice hurdles - why do you mock me so? First the market leaders decide not to give their running when I dutch them, then, when I go for the speculative option, they decide to give their running.
Carruthers won as he liked but at least A glass of Thyne and Innox finished 2nd and 3rd at 9/1 and 14/1, the 14/1 would have paid out more for the place with traditional bookmakers than you would have got winning on Carruthers!
Russian around placed.
Bleeping claimers eh! - BEthanys Boy managed 2nd while near market rival Global traffic won - it seems we can genuinely blame the jockey here if the headline in the Racing Post is anything to go by.
"Mackay grabs defeat from the jaws of victory" is the headline

The Palace game wasn't in running but final score was 2-0 so anyone taking the under 2.5 goals would have been happy

AYR - HEAVY
115
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Stormy Lord, 4/1 Inch High, Prince Linamix, 5/1 Sinatas, 6/1 Soubriquet, 10/1 Gunadoir, 20/1 Charlie Tango, 33/1 The Weaver, Wise Choice .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Stormy Lord is interesting off this lower hurdle mark and shaped as though a return to winning ways was imminent over fences last time. However, he's far from sure to get his own way in front with Inch High in the field and this could be run to suit SINATAS, who has shown ability in all three starts over hurdles and is open to plenty of improvement on this handicap debut

Stormy Lord, Prince Linamix, and Inch High are all currently 4/1 with Sinatas at 5/1 and all can be backed to level stakes - if one of them wins then we get an evens payout.

Of course it's heavy ground at Ayr which puts a spanner in the works

Although there are some potentials at Ayr, I will remain disciplined and swerve the heavy ground - this being a Saturday there are ample opportunities elsewhere and in different sports.

LINGFIELD
205
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ace Of Spies, 5/1 Copperwood, 6/1 Boy On A Swing, 8/1 Brave Hawk, Throne Of Power, 10/1 Fairfield Flame, 20/1 Golden Horus, 25/1 Gang Show, 33/1 Station Place .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ace Of Spies sets the standard but he was turned over at short odds last time and there are some interesting sorts in opposition. Brave Hawk and Throne Of Power both make some appeal, but preference is for BOY ON A SWING, who was too green to do himself justice on debut but should know much more this time.[PSm]

Potential price gapper here - let's build up the evidence - Mark Johnston trained must always garner respect. Price gap is evident in the live market too. Progressive form (albeit a maiden) of 7-3-2 signals he's getting there. - TOP RPR - TOP TOPSPEED - unconvincing Spotlight comments
"but could be some mileage in taking him on at the likely price"
NEGATIVES - maiden race - turned over last time out at shorter odds - 3 debutants and 4 others who have only had the one run and therefore likely to improve. - class 5 is poor class

Ace of spies looks to be a good place only bet for me, albeit at cramped odds. I am unsure whether the horse will win or not but am loathe to lay him because the chance is clear

NAAS
Soft to HEavy ground

BEgins with a 25 runner maiden hurdle - TAXI !
Now why is a horse 5/4 in a 25 runner maiden hurdle. This screams out to be laid but I can't help wondering why the bookies show 11/10 the field - Sarteano is 11/4.
I can back both to level stakes and still profit - and will look forward to the howls of laughter after the horse is beaten by a 66/1 shot in a race of 25 runners.

NEWBURY

Good to soft
210
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Voy Por Ustedes, 6/4 Master Minded, 8/1 Mahogany Blaze, 10/1 L´Antartique, 14/1 Pablo Du Charmil, 500/1 Monzon .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The reputation of VOY POR USTEDES was dented by his comprehensive defeat by Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek but the reigning 2m champion chaser resumed winning ways at Kempton and may be able to outgun the up-and-coming Master Minded, who jumped well when winning a handicap last time and is a serious rival in receipt of the weight.

A high class field and looking like a Cheltenham boy's reunion this meeting. Obviously the front 2 here can be backed to level stakes but returns will be marginal.
I quite like the following
Voy por estedes - 2.38 - back with £8 PROFIT £6.69
Master minded - 2.64 - back with £4 - loss £1.36

TOTAL STAKE £12
A 1/2 bet on Voy por estedes at curent prices

245
Denman returns and the bookies are giving nothing away - an ideal opportunity to back and lay off in running as odds reduce.
The more speculative amongst you may like to do this with Celestial Gold at better odds in the hope the horse gives Denman a fight - remember these are only horses and not infallable ( well unless your name is Kauto Star)

WARWICK
The scoop 6 meeting = says it all really !

A mention for Basalt in the last on a card which is very difficult at Wolverhampton.

I am trying not to be dragged in to over betting on the weekend and I hope by sticking to the above, I can eek out a return of sorts.

FOOTBALL

SOme potential 6 pointers in the relegation scrap in the premiership - the one standing out is Sunderland v Wigan.
I would guess this will mirror the recent Sunderland v Birmingham match which finished 2-0 to the home team. Home advantage would seem to be the key to SUnderland's success. Sunderland have scored twice at home in their last 3 ( most impressively against Bolton) and Wigan have scored once in 2 of their last 3 away outings and have scored in 5 of the last 6 matches.
The last meaningful match ended 3-0 to Wigan at home. This seems to be anomolous when compared to other results.
I will chance an under 2.5 goal trade here if the match is in running - there is just so much to play for for both sides. Currently 1.7 , I would look to get out about 1.50 for a small profit, or after 20 minutes
It doesn't get any easier for King Kev's Toon Army - having already faced Man UTd, Arse, and Chelski away, they face a rapidly improving Villa side.
I'm going to venture into the half time/full time market here and back Villa/Villa at 3.1 , Draw /Villa at 5.6 and Draw/Draw at 5.8

I think Newcastle won't win this one.

As I have already mentioned Spuds away to Derby are 8/15 - why so big?
Interestingly, away from home Spurs have only scored once in 3 games. The price is too big to miss and is a straight win only bet for me, although I note the imporvement in Derby with 2 consecutive 1-1 draws showing a bit of fight.
BUT 4-0 last meeting between these 2 at White Hart lane>>>>>>>?

Everton at home look solid against a Reading side who don't travel well. NOTE - Tim Cahill played for the Aussies mid week - will he be fatigued? - Hope not!
Match odds can again be enhanced by backing half time/full time Everton/Everton and Draw /Everton.
I can't see Reading getting anything out of either halves

MUG PUNTER ACCA

Roll the drums - gather the children around the PC to gaze in wonderment at another mug punter acca which is destined to fail but keep delivering!

8 Selections Chosen
1	Aston Villa v Newcastle (Laying Newcastle @ 5.88)
2	Stuttgart v H Berlin (Laying H Berlin @ 6.76)
3	East Fife v Stenhousemuir (Laying Stenhousemuir @ 9.36)
4	Derby v Tottenham (Laying Derby @ 9.19)
5	Everton v Reading (Laying Reading @ 9.17)
6	Rangers v Falkirk (Backing Rangers @ 1.2)
7	Panathinaikos v Veroia (Backing Panathinaikos @ 1.14)
8	Galatasaray v Manisaspor (Laying Manisaspor @ 31.74)

8-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8	2.8	£100.00	£180.00

The price of 2.8 tells you all you need to know about the difficulty of getting this one in. Newcastle shouldn't win at Villa. Stuttgart have been very impressive recently and odds on at home shouldnt lose. I've laid Stenhousemuir - going by the odds Eat Fife are likely winners but this is lower league Scottish footy and is not my forte. Laying Derby covers the dreaw (2 1-1's recently)
I have included 2 back bets purely based on their odds Rangers and Panaithiokos should have little difficulty.
Potential sticking points are Newcastle and Reading -the lay price is lower than I normally do. Greek footy too can be a disaster from a betting perspective.
Let's see how we get on

EGG CHASERS

Half time full time France/France at 1.43 is worthy of support I feel at home against a stuttering Irish.
Going purely by the Racing point , over 28.5 points for France at 1.9 represents a decent bet- they have scored 40+ against Ireland in recent matches and near evens is more appealing to those who shirk the 1.43 price above.

As ever, at the wekend, being choosy is key with the myriad betting opportunities available and I hope I have not over extended myself.

8 FEB

I got the Clonmel listed race right with Cooldine winning again .Undone again in another novices hurdle in the 310 Huntingdon where the each way angle would have paid off. At Southwell, Quiffy ended up being the money horse, 6/1 betting forecast in to 2/1 with Salut Saint Cloud out to 9/2 from a morning 13/5 - I could onlygo by the early prices and put my faith in their accuracy . Squiffy placed, Mujamead won again - so look out for laying in another handicap soon .
Share my dream palced at 5/1 as Celtic Son didn't give his running - stakes returned at least

BANGOR ON DEE
Soft and HEavy on both courses
145

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rapid Increase, 9/4 Latanier, 5/1 Monsignorita, 7/1 Such A Man, 14/1 Carrickmines, 20/1 Fortyshadesofgreen, 25/1 Porta Vogie, Ptibaby, 50/1 Masterjoe, 100/1 Drumroe, Ocean Fou, Twenti Twenti .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rapid Increase boasts the best form but whether he can reproduce it on this sort of surface remains to be seen and a better bet is LATANIER, who looked a fair prospect in winning his bumper and now goes hurdling with the stable banging in winners all over the shop

With ground conditions far from ideal, and a novices hurdle to boot, a speculative each way punt on Monsignorita and Such a Man , who, judging by the betting forecast look the most likely alternatives, should take advantage of any under performance by the 2 main protagonists.

250
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Carruthers, 9/2 A Glass In Thyne, 7/1 Innox, 66/1 Bringewood Fox, Coorbawn Vic, 100/1 Harlequin Hugo, 200/1 Ardfry, Romeo .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CARRUTHERS looks a relentless galloper who should be suited by this step up in trip and should manage the weight concession to A Glass In Thyne and Innox even though both have been decent staying chasers in their time

3 miles in soft - it's a long way to back a 1/5 shot. Lay material for me here ( ideally monitor in running - weight concession - soft ground - long enough distance to make a mistake)
Of course there are 2 very obvious each way bets in A glass of thyne and Innox with the straight 8 allowing for paying for 3rd place

205 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Barbers Shop, 5/2 Oscar Park, 11/2 Russian Around, 6/1 Star Shot, 40/1 Cardenas, 50/1 Shelomoh, 66/1 Palmers Peak, 100/1 Whist Drive .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact that Barbers Shop was a beaten favourite on three occasions over hurdles, twice at odds on, rings alarm bells and, despite outstanding form claims, he is one to have reservations about given the shortcomings in his jumping technique. Oscar Park will be very hard to beat if transferring his hurdling form to fences but has to put a poor run behind him and would appreciate a longer trip. In the circumstances, RUSSIAN AROUND may be the best each-way solution

If the Spotlighter puts up a convincing enough argument, then it would seem that Barbers shop is there to oppose. The straight 8 here, again I will go in mob handed with Russian around and Star Shot each way. As a beginners chase, I am hoping for a surprise and the race not to finish 1-2 Barbers shop and Oscar PArk.
Alternatives - Barbers Shop's questionable jumping means perhaps he's layable to back in running at a higher price if he makes any mistakes

300 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bethanys Boy, 4/1 Global Traffic, 7/1 Weet For Ever, 8/1 Nabir, 12/1 Simply St Lucia, 14/1 Cantley Spirit, 25/1 Topwell, 33/1 Art Of Being, Mi Odds .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Global Traffic will appreciate the return to claiming company and ought to go well, but BETHANYS BOY has been entered on a very realistic mark and if he reproduces his latest performance under suitable conditions, he will be very hard to beat

Potential price gapper "if he reproduces his latest performance under suitable conditions, he will be very hard to beat" - decent enough price gap - would prefer bigger.TOP RPR - TOP TOPSPEED - course and distance winner - best in at the weights

NEGATIVES - a claimer - arrrgh!
Worth a small punt I would say despite the reservations about the race type.

A different approach today, maybe in reaction to the novices hurdle yesterday where the obvious contenders underperformed - perhaps today ground can be in our favour. I am writing this early so usual look at morning prices puts me at a slight disadvantage.

FOOTY
The Palace v Charlton game is of interest - we've missed the sequencing bet with Palace - 12 game unbeaten run had to end sometime. The prices of 5/4 and 7/4 indicate they can't be split - the 5/4 quote probably because Charlton are at home. This signals perhaps an under 2.5 goal interest ( I'm going purely on odds here) - with Charlton's foray into the Premiership, recent head to heads are meaningless bar the game in September which finished 1-0. Charlon 5th and Palace 7th - indicative of a tight game early on so the unders is a trade for the 1st 20 minutes or so.

7 FEB

Mick Fitz - I thought you retired! - yes he got Menchikov home as was my niggle. The only strong bet yesterday, Electrolyser, came in albeit at restrictive odds . Given a choice won at a tasty 4/7 (when compared to the betting forecast) and everything else was pretty much hit and miss and lacked any real confidence from myself.

I couldn't find the results for the York match so am going by the BEtfair forum where someone mentioned "2-2 amazing scenes" - which, if correct, got us the over 2.5 goals. Well done England, although it was heart in mouth time counting down those 3 minutes of extra time for my return to come in. The Germans won 3-0 which was unexpected for a friendly and left me, in hindsight, wishing I'd done the Saudi (2-0), England(2-1), Germany (3-0) mug punter bet for a nice return CLONMEL
Heavy ground at Clonmel today means races should be looked at from a layer rather than a backer's perspective (if at all!)
235
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Cooldine, 2/1 Your Sum Man, 3/1 Merchent Paddy, 16/1 The Flying Dustman, 33/1 Bandearg, 66/1 Golden Blossom.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COOLDINE is tipped to make it three in a row. The six-year-old, who finished seventh to Cork All Star in last season's Cheltenham bumper, followed up a comfortable Thurles maiden win with a wide-margin success over this trip at the same venue three weeks ago, though it should be stressed that his fellow joint-favourite Scavenger seemed to be travelling at least when falling at the second-last.

Another "probability" race where it's largely down to 3 - the favourite being a multiple winner ( and we know about multiple winners, don't we children!)
As with yesterday's race, if you don't want to guess, just leave the race alone - all 3 are closely matched. For me, Cooldine and Merchant Paddy will be my selections on the strangth of Spotlight's comments regarding Your Sum Man.
I must reiterate that chosing 2 from 3 is largely down to luck here so if you want to wait for Electrolyser type bets then sit this out.

HUNTINGDON
Soft and Good to soft ground
310
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Norman The Great, 5/2 The Grey Berry, 11/2 Light Yield, 9/1 Chord, 10/1 Songe, 12/1 Immense, 20/1 Quilver Tatou, 25/1 Morning Farewell, 50/1 Heroes.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No doubting The Grey Berry's potential but he has something to prove at this stage and there could be value in taking him on with NORMAN THE GREAT, who shaped with considerable promise in a good race on his hurdling debut.[FC]
The market leaders are currently 2/1 allowing level stakes backing of both for an equivalent evens return.
With Richard Johnson and Choc Thornton ( who got a horse in yesterday who traded at 30 in running!) on our side we have a fair shout.
Each way backers can look at the race too as a good race to "get an angle" into from an each way perspective.

NAD AL SHEBA

the 445 is interesting - either backing the first 2 to level stakes or chancing Mick Channon's Sweet lily each way

SOUTHWELL
230
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Mujamead, 3/1 Chiff Chaff, 5/1 Salut Saint Cloud, 6/1 Squiffy, 7/1 El Dee, 20/1 Pochard, Salawat, Sovietta, 25/1 Aston, Good Cause.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mujamead rates an obvious contender in current excellent form, but he might struggle to give weight to CHIFF CHAFF, who bounced back to form last week and remains unexposed over a proven staying trip like this.[BDO]

Mujamead is a ,what children? - a multiple winner in handicap company , Miss?
Well done,Jonny!
Yes another with a hint of a chink in his armour and a race that,therefore, opens up from an each way perpective given 5 horses at 20/1 or bigger in a field of 10.
Why is Salut Sant Cloud 13/5 - compare that with the betting forecast price. This signals a place only bet for me with a little on the win.

TAUNTON

150
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 White On Black, 2/1 Celtic Son, 9/2 Share My Dream, 8/1 Misbehaviour, 12/1 Monsieur Villez, 33/1 King´s Spear, Proud Peer, 50/1 Timynomates, 66/1 Gotontheluckyone, Sparkbridge, 100/1 Count The Trees, Neat ´n Tidy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Celtic Son would have laughed at these in his heyday but his recent defeat over fences was a furhter indication of his slide down the ladder. This trip is also short of his best so preference is for WHITE ON BLACK, representing a team that excels in these events

With Misbehaving out , Share the dream is backable at 5/1 each way incase either of the first 2 don't give their running
Some short prices today at TAunton but it is soft ground there today which tempers my entusiasm - remember the ideal is to leave heavy and soft ground cards alone

FOOTY

The Argies managed to scrape through 5-0 against Guatemala to get another mug punter acca home.

Only the African Nations games today and they are unpredictable to say the least. The Ghana game is priced to reflect the tightness. As is normal in semi finals of significance ,under 2.5 goals is usually the call, but, hey, this is Africa!
The Ivory coast are a shade of odds on against Egypt and I would favour the Ivorians with their superb attacking forwards and right winger who scored a cracker and played like a man possessed last time out. I think tey should have too much for Egypt, and may be worth entertaining at 8/13 with a view on trading if they take the lead.

Ideally a no bet day for me today in the football,

I have noticed that the SPuds are about 8/13 away to hapless Derby - this is a steal surely, or are the Spuds playing with blindfolds and hands tied behind their backs in a new type of handicap football? At this early stage, this is standout for the weekend.

6 FEB

It's not too difficult to pick a short price lay is it? Take Ajay - all the clues were there and in full view of all those who could ,well, read! - question mark over heavy ground - the horse was pulled up on soft ground previously and he ended up unplaced.

instead of laying, the odds were enhanced by a 16/1 system selection in Quality Control, booting home at 6/1 ( bigger on Betfair). Another market moverUnowatameen ( 10/1 betting forecast went off 9/4!) came in. We also got Theatre Diva beat.

Amazing request disappointed and was speculative given there were more likely each way contenders but was worthy of a speculative punt given ground conditions .

Tenancy was a non runner.

Well the York City game is on tonight but Ladbrokes had it on the 5th Feb coupon! England left it to the 2nd half to assert with a brace from James Milner ensuring overs got smashed - here again was another example of a 1.2 team who could have been backed at as high as 1.75. Similarly those with faith in the youngsters would have backed over 2.5 goals at half time as it remained 0-0 , again at hugely inflated odds. This is what I wish I did yesterday but alas I kept with the boys from the start.

The German match finished 2-1 - again overs in the bag. Motherwell was postponed

All in all a very pleasing day given I had pretty much dismissed eeking out any profit from 2 heavy ground venues.

CARLISLE - SOFT GROUND
120

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Minster Shadow, 2/1 Truckers Lady, 8/1 Byways Boy, 33/1 Noquina, The Chisholm .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Truckers Lady gets weight from her rivals and should find a race before long, but MINSTER SHADOW looked decent when scoring at Newcastle and can follow up.[SR

A toss of the coin race really with Minster Shadow and Truckers Lady priced 10/11 and 11/10 in the early prices, making up nearly the whole 100% book by themselves.

This is not really dutchable ( well it is but , for example, you'd break even on Minster shadow and make £2.35 on Truckers lady to an example £10 level stake

In the hope these 2 dominate, Truckers lady is 1.26 to place which is quite reasonable given the make up of the race and may be my way in. Her last 2 runs have been 2nd places in heavy ground.

Alternatively, toss a coin and back either / or and hope for the best!

220

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Woodview, 4/1 Lago, 8/1 Shulmin, Sol Run, 9/1 Scott´s Mill, 10/1 Roaringwater, 14/1 Stormont Dawn, 20/1 Kalic D´Alm, 25/1 Stravaigin, Super Boston, 33/1 Northern Vic .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WOODVIEW's previous record suggests he is probably not one to take too short a price about, but this jockey got a good tune out of him at Newcastle last week and he will be hard to beat if in the same mood. Lago is the obvious danger All the hall marks of an HTB selection - Spotlight - "clearly the one to beat" - " will be hard to beat if in the same mood" - I don't like the "if" bit if I'm being picky. - distance winner - top rpr - top topspeed - Lago is the only danger price wise - early prices - 15/8 - - - 7/2 Personally I will level stakes back both Woodview and Lago, mindful of ground conditions and not 100% sure of a return given its a handicap chase and soft ground but I feel I will be in with a shout if putting my faith in the odds 255 BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Circassian, 100/30 Beggars Cap, 4/1 Open De L´Isle, 6/1 Cebonne, 16/1 Stand On Me, 20/1 Kempski, 50/1 Astyanax, 100/1 Anvil Point . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CIRCASSIAN (nap) was easily the best of these over hurdles and his recent chase debut suggested he is equally effective over fences. He can retain his unbeaten chasing record at the expense of Open De L'Isle, who was a long way behind the selection most recently but should get closer this time.[ The straight 8 here so an avenue in for each way plundering? First thing to do is check the horses from Stand by me onwards have not reduced in odds in the early price market ( may be indicative of a 16/1 system type gamble a la Quality Control) All 4 's odds have either stayed the same or increased which means this 8 runner race can become, probability wise, a 4 horse race. With only 1 to beat to place, then Cebonne is the natural each way selection - if Circassian gives his true running we will be fighting for places only DOWNROYAL Well my last 3 short priced lays have all won in Ireland and I saw Rare Bob in the 205 20 runner maiden hurdle on soft to heavy ground and thought - "Shall I?" I'll sit this one out on this occasion! KEMPTON A likely contender in Given a choice in the 820 but I have seen claiming stakes shorties bite the dust even in 4 runner fields! LINGFIELD 130 - BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Wrighty Almighty, 4/1 Parkview Love, 9/2 Reballo, 5/1 Faithful Ruler, 13/2 Garden Party, 10/1 Chief Exec, Corlough Mountain, 12/1 Satyricon, 33/1 Moonlight Man, Moonlight man is currently 20/1 early morning prices - a hint? Well Spotlight tells us that trainer has been "experimenting" with the horse over different trips, and the horse is seeing a marked drop in grade and handicap mark which is evidence to suggest a change of fortunes. If he reaches 16/1 or 14/1 in the live market near the of then I will entertain a small each way interest ( although not too confident of a return given poor recent form) 230 BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Electrolyser, 5/2 The Riddler, 6/1 Clovis, 12/1 Red Linnet, 25/1 Royal Soverin, 66/1 Pie O My, 100/1 Den´s Boy . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Derby entry ELECTROLYSER made a highly encouraging start to his career when runner-up over C&D last month and this looks a good opportunity to go one better. The Riddler can follow him home. God I hate maidens - but "Derby entry" and Spotlight - "looked certain future winner" Short enough price with the Riddler a concern - worth a punt for me to show why he's a derby entry (just hope it's not a donkey derby!) LUDLOW SOFT 210 BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Harringay, 6/4 Menchikov, 11/4 Earth Man, 50/1