30 OCT - NO BLOG TOMORROW!

I hope you heeded the warnings yesterday - Provence 2nd in a 5 furlong maiden , Littledodayno nowhere in an apprentice ridden race. Yes Adversity won, but at 1/3 this was expected and Ryan Moore booted him home with ease and as for Faraday, typically for a Barney Curley horse, he either wins comfortably or goes nowhere - the latter was the case yesterday so i'm glad I didn't play
Rydal came 2nd at 4/1 which is fine from an each way perspective -Magic Glade, the potential price gapper won. In a 2 the place race, Foxhaven couldn't manage the place - perhaps its wiser to stick to races where there's a payout for 3 the place? Hellfire Boy was a great 3rd at 12/1 ( note 7 runner race at the off but Betfair always pays out 3 the place so I was happy with that!) The each ways continue to place largely which is reassuring as our stakes are pretty much returned in anticipation of the winner who will arrive soon. A good policy to employ.
125 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ah Ya Boy Ya, 5/1 Darling Harbour, The Gloves Are Off, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, 10/1 Diyla, Storey Coburn, 12/1 Rockfield, Sir Malik, 14/1 Dawn Assault, 16/1 Bottleforthebattle, Inishmot Girl, 20/1 Fabien, Port La Chaine, Seismologie, 25/1 According To Kate, Betabob, Dahra One, Florimund, 33/1 Liffey Side, Shady Mo, Sly Touch ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AH YA BOY YA is becoming an expensive sort to follow, but seems to have been found a good opportunity to make amends for three instances of beaten favouritism since his debut second in a bumper at Killarney in July. The main worry concern here is that he looked more in need of a longer trip than today's shorter distance when beaten a neck by former Flat winner Strath Gallant on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse a week ago. One positive to take from that race is that he managed to reverse previous Listowel bumper running with Bennys Quest. I include this one out of interest - form shows 2232 - obviously at the business end of races and a modicum of consistency augur well for another good run today. Price gap is there, and beaten a neck last time. BUT this is a maiden hurdle, and these types of race are usually carnage for the short prices. Add to this a 22 runner field and a number of debutants and we are back on shaky ground. Against my better judgement, I will be with Ah ya Boy ya today , the big field should ensure the price remains over evens. I would certainly not bet odds on. No doubt I will regret this but today could be the day. An obvious bet would be backing pre race, and laying off the bet in running at a shorter price on the assumption the horse will be at the business end as his form suggests.
155 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Narquois, 6/1 Miley Byrne, 7/1 Another Jayjay, 10/1 Thefactofthematter, 14/1 Dan George, Tigerland, 20/1 Ciara Eile, Dillons Hill, Double Me Up, Lusikisiki, Rory´s Star, Shewalksthewalk, Subtle Prince, 25/1 Another Surge, Chinara, Oyster Queen, Red Basil, 33/1 Bombay And Tonic, Cutting Chrystal, Tripalot, 66/1 Tales Of New York, 100/1 Emmy Supreme ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NARQUOIS will be very hard to beat if returning to action in the same form as when third to Shuil Oisin over the course and trip almost a year ago. Though it would be simplistic to take a literal view of the fact that he finished only 1 1/2l behind runner-up Farmer Brown, whose sustained improvement saw him win this season's Galway Hurdle, it was a decent maiden in overall terms, with fourth place going to subsequent hurdles and chase winner Care And Share. The current good form of the Meade stable offers the hope that he will be fit and ready for this, and perhaps a bigger worrry is that his winning form over 1m7f in France suggests that he will do better over further than 2m. The price gap is there as are the trigger words " will be very hard to beat" but there is an "if" and that is that the horse hasn't been on the track for nearly a year. This is an obvious concern and backers will be hoping the "if" doesn't surface and the horse will be, indeed, "very hard to beat" - On the plus side Paul Carberry is on board.
COMMENT
As with yesterday these price gappers really aren't ideal because it's Ireland, big fields and race type. So those waiting for nailed on templated price gappers would do well to leave these 2 alone - will the first horse get his head in front of 22 opponents in the maiden hurdle? Will the 2nd horse overcome a year off the track and reproduce his form from that year ago and be "very hard to beat". It's all conjecture and hope!
EACH WAYS
COntinues ticking along while we wait for a winner - at least the large proportion of selections are placing until that winner arrives which ensures a return of stakes, and in some cases, a little more on top
130 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bishopbriggs, 9/4 Premier Danseur, 9/2 Seta Pura, 10/1 Aerialist, 14/1 Laureldean Breeze, 16/1 Royal Acclamation, 25/1 Make A Bid, Stagecoach Topaz, Tanley, 33/1 Riki Wiki Wheels,

4 before 14/1 and the obvious candidate looks to be Seta Pura
230 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Rainbow Fox, 5/1 Distant Sun, Expensive Art, 11/2 Argentine, Umpa Loompa, 6/1 Feelin Foxy, Ingleby Princess, 33/1 Alloro, 66/1 Bella Grande.
Very interesting to see 7 horses between 7/2 and 6/1. This indicates to me that the favourite is worth taking on and I'll plump for a horse positioned in the middle of this bunch in Argentine each way -hope he places at least
250 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 What´s For Tea, 7/2 Hurstpierpoint, 8/1 Kabuku, Prunes, 10/1 Khana Ras, 16/1 Carry On Cleo, 20/1 High Wonder, Ten On Line, 25/1 Mio Fiore, Raines Boy, 33/1 Lavemill, 50/1 Little Finch .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHAT'S FOR TEA has good prospects of enhancing Tom Dascombe's fine strike-rate with his juveniles here and is preferred to Hurstpierpoint.[FC]
Hurstpierpoint each way ,currently at 7/1 because the favourite has been very well backed in this claimer. The makings of a price gapper judging by early morning prices but this is a claiming stakes race.

NB NO BLOG TOMORROW - I HAVE TO GO TO THE BIG SMOKE TO MEET THE BOSSMAN!

29 OCT

Wlcome to the Jumps season. We rarely get fallers on the flat, but had one yesterday, along with a non runner and a 2nd at 11/2 which I would have loved to have won - we have to take the fallers on the chin - goes with the territory alas. Gemini storm was contending but that's life.
I was right to swerve some of the potential price gappers - making returns from long lay offs meant a lot of the shorties yesterday underperformed.
PRICE GAPPERS
140 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Faraday, 8/1 Dinner Date, Moyoko, 10/1 Noah Jameel, 12/1 Astrolibra, Bowl Of Cherries, My Monna, 14/1 Don Pasquale, Sekula Pata, 16/1 Cove Mountain, Fortune Point, Storm Path, 33/1 Montana Sky, Surdoue .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FARADAY, backed off the boards at Wolverhampton last time will be hard to beat, assuming the market vibes are similarly positive. The race for second place looks more competitive and Moyoko can edge it.[AM]"will be hard to beat" - I like to see it! Prominent price gap. My only concern is this is a class 6 handicap - hardly the BReeders Cup!
Another cause for concern. This is a Barney curley horse "backed off the boards at Wolverhampton last time" - that's Barney curley alright! I am worried we may have missed the boat as far as the winning run is concerned. I shan't be having a play because of the trainer although I note Jamie Spencer is onboard and, with the flat jockey's title still within grasp, he wouldn't be riding this one if it wasn't without a chance. So watch out for the market here.
210 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Adversity, 9/2 Mafioso, 6/1 Dan Chillingworth, 7/1 Media Stars, 10/1 Arabian Spirit, 14/1 Rowaad, 50/1 Aleatricis, Festival Dreams, 66/1 Balletic, Yakama, 100/1 Amicus, Hits Only Time .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ADVERSITY (nap) made a good impression on his debut at Lingfield last month and has a lot going for him. Dan Chillingworth may be next best.[EMW]"should be hard to beat barring accidents."
A maiden stakes race and a horse with only the one run installed as warm favourite - seen it all before. Backed based on one run - comes 2nd!POSITIVES - Ryan Moore, who is superb, instils a lot of confidence for backers. the price gap remains in the morning market ,and, going against my better judgement, Adversity may be the one for me to back at an unexciting price
120 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Provence, 4/1 Minshar, 10/1 Duty Doctor, Monashee Rock, Red Amaryllis, 16/1 Holly Golightley, 20/1 Didana, 25/1 Centenerola, Princess Augusta, 33/1 Never Catcher, 50/1 Cealtra Star, Felicia, Madame Bountiful, 100/1 Pretty Officer, Rosie Says No ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PROVENCE was head and shoulders above these on form even before her soft-ground Newmarket third was franked by the fourth at the weekend and is expected to open her account. Minshar is better than she was able to show last time but she needs to improve a good deal on her promising debut.[PJ]God help us all - a good to soft 5 furlong maiden ! Why me? Obviously the form has been franked convincingly regarding Provence, the price gap has widened this morning which is a positive, but 6 of the 16 are debutants and as such could be anything. SImilarly there are a number of horses who have had the 2 runs = more experience and could come on leaps and bounds. Provence is clearly the most likely winner but the good to soft and sprint distance is a niggle.
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Littledodayno, 5/1 Duke Of Milan, 6/1 Razzano, 10/1 Gone´N´Dunnett, King Of Charm, 12/1 Blessed Place, Two Acres, 16/1 Rhapsilian, 20/1 Beau Bramble, Shantina´s Dream, 25/1 Campbeltown, Sir Mikeale .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Razzano and Duke Of Milan are both respected in a modest contest but LITTLEDODAYNO (nap) ran a solid race in defeat at Kempton last time and can belatedly put her head in front this season after some eyecatching efforts.[PSm]
Price gap enhanced in morning market. No real " will be hard to beat" , more an expectation of a belated win based on prior close shaves. Add to this the fact this is an apprentice ridden race, and I'll get me coat!
Again, will probably win, but as with most examples today, there are niggles

COMMENT - personally I would limit myself to one today. The BArney Curley horse will not reach the short list, despite Jamie Spencer's presence as we may have missed the architypal Curley run -winning with jockey sipping a cognac!. Other potential price gappers appear in maiden races, one a one time out runner installed as fav based solely on that one run, the other in a 5 furlong event on good to soft ground over 5 furlongs. Add to that the last horse in an apprentice ridden race, and we have arguments for a no back day today. Adversity and PRovence are my shortlisted selections I think. IF forced, I will put my trust in Adversity and Ryan Moore to bring home the bacon
EACH WAY
240 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Magic Glade, 4/1 Rydal, 10/1 Regal Raider, 12/1 Briannsta, 14/1 Lindbergh, 16/1 Royal Challenge, 20/1 Calloff The Search, Detonate, 33/1 Cayman Breeze, Luloah, 50/1 Time For Change ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAGIC GLADE has had a great year for this yard and has a good deal going for him on these terms. Rydal is preferred of the others.[EMW]Another potential price gapper but Rydal was too close - I will take Rydal as my first each way chance incase the fav falters in this claimer
250 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 New Guinea, 7/2 Foxhaven, 7/1 Futun, Young Mick, 10/1 Millville, 300/1 Black Wadi, Little Darlin.
Foxhaven each way ( only 2 the place) -may be able to exploit favs under performing?
350 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alwaabel, 6/4 Lord Sandicliffe, 8/1 Hellfire Bay, 10/1 Ricci De Mare, 50/1 Billberry, Encore Belle, 66/1 Bad Moon Rising, Love And Glory, 100/1 My Flame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of the newcomers makes a lot of appeal, with Ricci De Mare perhaps the most interesting. ALWAABEL (nap), who comes here in preference to Newmarket later in the week, is taken to account for Lord Sandicliffe.[GW]
Hellfire Bay each way may exploit one of the 2 market leaders not giving their runnings

I suppose it was asking too much for all selections to win yesterday and I did warn about selectivity -just jope you picked the right ones!Master Nimbus at 4/1 tried to make all but emptied out under the weight.
Nakai won well at 8/11, as did Klabarg at 7/4, I shouldnt have let heart rule head re Dylan Thomas - soft ground = no bet - - discipline!GEmini Lucy nearly came home and Galactic star found the upping in class too much - soft ground and scoop 6 race were the warning signs!Miussit managed 2nd.Each ways, 1 non runner, 1 placed at 8/1 and i unplaced.
No reaql price gappers today - small fields at Aintree and some likely candidates but a lot of the shorties today are making their debuts,either seasonal or under a different jumping code. Similar at Wincantion where you'll notice a couple with price gaps in the 120, 220 and 255 races. I'm put off by the lack of extreme confidence by Spotlight, but you can make your own minds up.

EACH WAY

Continues ok, with a placed horse at 8/1, a non runner and an unplaced yesterday

105 AINTREE

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Crocodiles Rock, 3/1 Laborec, 8/1 Greenbridge, 10/1 Cryptic, 16/1 Ballynalty Express, Spartacus Bay, 25/1 The Snurglar, 40/1 Rathcor, 66/1 Shade Bonny, 100/1 Talesofriverbank.
Laborec here each way
130 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tanners Hall, 3/1 Eurocelt, 7/1 Caged Tiger, 10/1 Doctor Kilbride, 12/1 Morgan The Mighty, 14/1 Beaufort, 16/1 Ellies Horse, Huckleberry, 20/1 Donald Will Do, 25/1 Velvet Skye, 33/1 Tickford Abbey, 50/1 Moorland Grit, My Beautiful Loser, Xandra Weld, 100/1 Mine The Balance, 200/1 Winsome Wendy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A suitable opportunity for the unexposed winning pointer TANNERS HALL to make a winning debut for his top yard. Eurocelt boasts the form under Rules to pose the most threat.[BDO]

Plenty at double figure odds so Caged Tiger for me
340 TOWC
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Another Jewel, Gemini Storm, 5/1 Bermuda Pointe, Goscar Rock, South Sands, 14/1 Aliba, Queen Excalibur, Wild Chimes, 20/1 Nautic, 25/1 Heartofmidlothian, 33/1 Narval D´Avelot .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GEMINI STORM has been gaining experience over today's track, only just touched off on his penultimate start over further, and is taken to open his account. Goscar Park would be of interest if coming in for support.[DHi]

A tight race with 4 at 5/1 so Gemini storm each way -looks positioned to place at least

27 OCTOBER

Good win for Kaldoun Kingdom, Kahara came 2nd which was good for the place only bet in such a big field. It's a pity the Discreet Cat race was on so late as if I had seen the ground conditions earlier this would never have been a bet - the ground was sloppy and ,as an equivalent to heavy ground, a no bet . Well done to Boz, winning again. Each way wins for Silk affair and Grethel very pleasing .Cool Roxy won for the twin cycles
Very busy day today so it's best to try to stick to the cream of the crop and keep the results of the last 2 days going - excellent form
PRICE GAPPERS
210 AINTREE
ETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Master Nimbus, 11/2 Idarah, 7/1 King´s Revenge, 8/1 Border Tale, 9/1 Peacock, 10/1 Folk Tune, 12/1 Lord Baskerville, Motive, 14/1 Culcabock, Kristiansand, 16/1 Prince Picasso, 20/1 Brooklyn Breeze.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A number of these are lightly raced over hurdles and the likes of King's Revenge, Idarah and Folk Tune are all open to improvement. However, they'll all have to go to catch MASTER NIMBUS (nap), who won with plenty to spare last time and is well up to defying his new mark.[DHi]
I know I said I would be looking for the cream of the crop today and this one does not quiote fit in with an ideal bet, but at 5/2 may be worth an interest. A reasonable price gap and a horse who won eased down last time. This is a high quality field so the price gap takes on added significance. Not an official bet but worthy of a second look - I would err on the place bet side with an 11lb weiht hike to contend with and the old winning sequence which will end soon.
405 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Nakai, 5/1 Aaron´s Run, 13/2 Simply Smart, 7/1 Matmogul, 12/1 Garleton, 14/1 King Of The Jungle, 16/1 Clifden Boy, Gaora Lane, Kisha King, 25/1 Rock Star Appeal, 28/1 Opal Ridge, Takeachanceonhim, 33/1 Power King, 40/1 Arctic Shadow, Joshuas Vista, Just Playfull.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite the big field, only a handful at most appeal. The key horse is NAKAI, winner of two Irish points and second in a decent Fairyhouse bumper in last season's three starts. He is likely to be very hard to beat at this level if transferring that ability to hurdles. Aaron's Run and the selection's stablemate Simply Smart are the most interesting of the opposition. [MCu]
There are some likely candidates in earlier races at Chepstow ( I'm sure you can spot them) but they're missing one key ingredient which is the Spotlight confidence - not so here - there is an "if" and it is this if that we will be betting against oif we back Nakai. Price gap remains in the early morning prices and worthy of attention at 4/5, although I suspect this race is better tackled from an each way perspective.
That said, I will back the horse today in the hope that he WILL be able to transfer his ability to hurdles - if so he will be " very hard to beat at this level"
200 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kal Barg, 15/2 Upton Grey, 9/1 Huzzah, 10/1 Kiwi Bay, 12/1 Bonny Rose, Feisty Royale, 14/1 Captain Royale, 16/1 Bigalo´s Magic, Harry Gee, Resounding Glory, Tadalavil, 20/1 Ginger Pickle, Lodi, 25/1 Dan Tucket, Flowing Cape, 33/1 Karky Schultz.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A case to be made for several of the runners but none more convincing than that for KAL BARG who looks sure to make a bold bid judged on his latest fine third at Ascot. Upton Grey may give him most to do.[FC]
Again this race is worth a mention but is not a rock solid bet - why? 16 runner 2 year old nursery over a sprint distance. That said, I am taken by the form shown by Kal BArg in the race won by Ibn Khaldun - again I have done NO form analysis, the information is available in Spotlight's commentary.
It's up to you if you want to back. You will be backing in the hope the form will be franked today but I am put off by field size and race type.
MONMOUTH PARK
WIth the dirt track sloppy I would not be having a play unless it was on the turf track no matter how good the horses are.
950
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dylan Thomas, 4/1 English Channel, 11/2 Red Rocks, 7/1 Better Talk Now, 11/1 Grand Couturier, 16/1 Shamdinan, 50/1 Fri Guy, Transduction Gold.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was a brilliant tactical move to switch ENGLISH CHANNEL's pacemaker Icy Atlantic to the Mile. His withdrawal creates a big problem for Dylan Thomas, Red Rocks and Better Talk Now, who would all have benefited from a strong gallop. I see English Channel as a good thing to take this with Grand Couturier worth a saver at big odds.
Price gap there - it's not on the dirt track, BUT Arc winners have had a torrid time of it in the BReeders Cup. I will be backing Dylan though if price remains. NOTE - Spotlight comment provided by Nick Mordin - a one off so I take it as his opinion only - he is not the usual Spotlight writer
240 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Gemini Lucy, 7/2 Carthalawn, 11/2 Dbest, 7/1 Ballyagran, 10/1 Coolgreaney.
Small field - positive write up - worth a chance at current odds - price gap takes on added significance in such a small field
250 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Galactic Star, 9/2 Red Gala, 6/1 Ivy Creek, 7/1 Crime Scene, Linas Selection, Regime, 20/1 Dash To The Front,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Possible this may be tactical, but a steady pace did not prevent GALACTIC STAR (nap) complete his hat-trick last time, when Crime Scene was back in fourth, and he can successfully make the step up to Group company. Stable-companion Red Gala, who was set a huge amount to do last time, also looks as if he has more to offer.[AC]
Price gap certainly there - Ryan Moore in the saddle, but I may not back Galactic star for the following reasons - on a 4 timer - a winning sequence which will end soon =- step up to group company too will make the task more difficult. I am though taken by Ryan Moore who is a class act.
Good to soft ground conditions are also offputting as is the fact this is a scoop 6 race
400 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Missit, 11/2 Shamayel, 8/1 Lady Deauville, Maramba, 10/1 Perfect Act, 12/1 Fanatical, 14/1 Hobby, 33/1 Miss Bootylishes, Serena´s Storm, Tamara Moon, 50/1 Clifton Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Barry Hills has been the trainer to follow in this Listed race with three winners, a second and a third in the last six years and his Shamayel, with the likelihood of better to come, is entitled to plenty of respect. However, if MISSIT is in the same form as she was last weekend it should not be necessary to look further for the winner. Lady Deauville may be the best each-way alternative.[FC]
Positive spotlight commentary - good price gap replicated in the early morning price market-negative - fillies race and the ladies can be a tad unpredictable with their minds on shopping and kittens
I've said it before, as a listed contest, price gaps take on added significance and strength because we're not dealing with dodge pots here!
COMMENT - it is unrealistic to expect all of the above to oblige - a busy SAturday means that you should use your discretion and draw up a short list of 1 or 2 price gappers from those which provide the most compelling case to back
EACH WAYS
Great run of late and hope it continues - keeping selections to 3 ensures I opt for the better candiidates
700 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Torrens, 5/2 Nawamees, 7/2 History Boy, 8/1 Drizzi, 14/1 Maria Antonia, 16/1 Oscarshall, 25/1 Escoffier, 33/1 Gateland, Zaffeu, 66/1 Itsy Bitsy, Star Berry, 250/1 Taran Tregarth.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With no obvious front-runner in the field this could develop into a muddling contest, but for all that it is still hard to look beyond the top four in the weights despite all of them appearing best held up. History Boy’s win here back in the summer is still fresh in the memory, but on more recent form TORRENS is a safer option than either Nawamees or Drizzi.[GN]
4 before the 14\1 shows us where to look - Drizzi could place here if one of the top 3 fail to give their running
310 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cantabilly, Full House, 4/1 Grecian Groom, 9/2 Leamington Lad, 13/2 Bureaucrat, 14/1 Dune Raider, 16/1 Take A Mile, 25/1 Voir Dire, 33/1 Tora Petcha.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FULL HOUSE will appreciate this drop in class after running in top handicaps on the Flat. A strong-traveller who should be suited by these conditions, he can see off Cantabilly and Leamington Lad. [AA]
9 in the field - 3 the place - 5 before 14/1 - Leamington Lad each way for me
420 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bremen, 5/2 Shore Thing, 11/2 With Speed, 12/1 Conservation, 14/1 Sunset Boulevard, 20/1 Magic Rush, 33/1 Marker, Raise Again, The Cayterers, 40/1 King´s Fable, 50/1 Indian Wizard, 66/1 Champion De Sou, Tamworth, 100/1 Chipchenko.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BREMEN (nap) ran a decent horse close on his hurdling debut and can get off the mark here. Shore Thing looks the main danger, while With Speed can't be ruled out.
Shore thing is at an each way price in this maiden hurdle where I'm always keen to take the fav on
FOOTY
Concentration today on the Man Utd match I think - I will give Middlesburgh a 1.5 goal start at 1.67 odds. I cannot see Boro doing much from an attacking perspective.
I will be laying Celtic at current odds of 1.23 with an eye to trading if the odds increase during the first half. After mid week European excersions last time, they were lucky to beat Gretna and Motherwell may keep this close early doors. The odds are such that we won't lose much in liability should Celtic score early ( which I'm not expecting)
I will go for the over 2.5 goal trade at Portsmouth v West Ham - I see goals in this - 2 at least will enable me to trade out of my bet

26 OCT

Nota Liberata placed at 3/1 as I suspected, What Katie Did won at 7/4 for Jamie Spencer, and Bold Adventure won at 6/4, obviously had one more win in him!Downhiller came 2nd at 16/1, again a drifter but if you played then you'd be happy. Albarino won at 5/1 making this a cracking day - why can't they all be like this?

PRICE GAPPERS
240 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Kaldoun Kingdom, 7/1 Chivola, 8/1 Dark Tara, Gin Genereux, 10/1 Leading Edge, Rio Sabotini, 14/1 Willyn, 16/1 Admiralcollingwood, Cheshire Rose, 20/1 Killer Class, 25/1 Zaplamation, 33/1 Paint Stripper, Polish Priory, 100/1 Jazz Stick .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of dead wood on show here and it will be disappointing if KALDOUN KINGDOM (nap) can't gain compensation for his luckless effort at Nottingham last time. Chivola and the lightly raced Rio Sabotini could prove best of the rest.[PSm] Also " ahead of the handicapper" - very healthy price gap but only concern is good to soft ground which might deteriorate ,and the fact this is a 2 year old nursery - a form of handicap.At odds against though, worth chancing 355 DONCASTER BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Kahara, 8/1 Estate, 12/1 Ainama, Dium Mac, 14/1 According To Pete, Casual Affair, Hot Diamond, Lets Roll, Prince Sabaah, 16/1 Dar Es Salaam, Whenever, 20/1 Mighty Moon, Traprain, 25/1 Altilhar, Dhehdaah, Mister Arjay, Mister Completely, 33/1 Linden Lime, Trance, 50/1 Historic Place . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from the progressive 3yo KAHARA (nap), despite the ratings hike, and he can further assist Seb Sanders in his push for the jockeys' title. Dium Mac is feared most Price gap now 13/8 - - - 7/1 which is a positive. Seb Sanders on board will give this his best shot - "the one to beat" despite going up 8lbs. This is a big field handicap , 20 runners, 12 being 20/1 or bigger. Again you'll get odds against, but with 4 the place, a place only bet would be, for me, the safer option 1035 MONMOUTH PARK BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Discreet Cat, 11/2 Corinthian, Gottcha Gold, 13/2 Lewis Michael, 10/1 Wanderin Boy, 11/1 High Finance, Xchanger, 20/1 Forefathers, 25/1 Park Avenue Ball . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The smart play looks to be to oppose Discreet Cat here. I marginally prefer HIGH FINANCE over Gottcha Gold as an alternative. This is not the usual Spotlight writer for the BReeders Cup - in such a high quality field, the price gap cannot be ignored. If replicated at the off, this will be a bet 920 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Boz, 9/2 Rudry World, 5/1 Kalasam, 14/1 Colinette, 16/1 Cavalry Twill, Tafiya . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOZ, whose relatives Batik and Bauer both progressed with age for the same connections, can keep up the good work. Rudry World should make it interesting, though.[AWJ] 3 time handicap winner had to work a little harder for victory last time. Again this is a handicapper multiple winner going up the weights with each new race. Positives - JAmie has stuck around to ride him, and it's a small field, but personally I would be sitting on the fence here - the winning sequence will end soon EACH WAYS 210 AYR BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Crying Aloud, 9/4 Almamia, 7/2 Madame Hoi, 5/1 Silk Affair, 16/1 Chanteuse De Rue, 66/1 Mathool, Orpen Bid, Parisienne Gem . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Crying Aloud sets the standard but she does have to prove she wants this far and ALMAMIA is taken to improve past her. Mark Prescott's filly is bred in the purple and looks sure to improve for her recent Nottingham debut. 8 runner field - 3 the place - Silk affair is positioned to be competitive 345 AYR BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Bert´s Memory, 7/2 Kassuta, 5/1 Grethel, 10/1 Johnston´s Glory, 12/1 Fun In The Sun, Jane Of Arc, Soul Angel, 16/1 Acapulco Bay, Caviar Heights, Stay Active, 20/1 Superjain, 66/1 Shady Bay. A lot of horses 12/1 or over, sonbest to concentrate on the shorter prices - Grethel each way 420 AYR BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Goodbye, Northern Spy, 6/1 Moheebb, 12/1 Hawkit, King Of The Moors, Mystical Ayr, Rudry Dragon, 16/1 Ansells Pride, Bay Boy, Vicious Warrior, 20/1 Future´s Dream, 25/1 Blue Spinnaker, Neil´s Legacy. Northern Spy here - priced as if the first 3 are the most fancied TWIN CYCLES 230 FAKENHAM BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cool Roxy, 3/1 Tighe Caster, 7/2 The Stickler, 6/1 Big Rob, 10/1 Salinas, 25/1 Party Games, 100/1 Sett Aside . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Likely that this has been COOL ROXY's aim for some time and he can keep his local fan club happy by scoring his ninth course win at the expense of Tighe Caster and The Stickler The first 2 in the betting could provide us with a winner here

25th OCT

Quiet day yesterday - Blue Zenith won -Musical Script a no bet for me - I hope you see the differnce between a proper price gapper with attendant extreme positive comments from Spotlight and Musical script with its "shoulds" and "ifs"
PRICE GAPPERS
220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nota Liberata, 100/30 Mujahaz, 7/2 Torba, 6/1 Tension Point, 10/1 Gunner´s View, 14/1 Rosie´s Glory, Stagehand, 33/1 Leprechaun´s Gold, Salto Chico, 100/1 Awe, Converti, Homecroft Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It looked a better race in which NOTA LIBERATA finished a clear third at Kelso and he's the one to beat, with George Moore a very rare visitor to these parts. An error-free round could see Torba offer most resistance
Mujahaz is a bit too near to warrant this beinga templated price gapper bet but there are grounds for backing the horse, namely the long trip to Ludlow and "he's the one to beat" - I'd be more confident in this as a place only bet as I am concerned with Torba and Mujahaz's proximity to the selection price wise
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 What Katie Did, 7/2 Stevie Thunder, 13/2 What´s For Tea, 8/1 Deckguard, Oli James, 10/1 Thomas Malory, 14/1 Reel Star, Weet By Far, 20/1 Emef Princess, 25/1 Bahia Palace, Duneen Dream, 33/1 Spoilt Madame.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from WHAT KATIE DID as she boasts a genuine attitude, the highest BHA figure and acts well on the surface. The unexposed Stevie Thunder can chase her home
"it is hard to get away from " and "looks set for a big run" are wholly positive. Jamie Spencer on board - had a back problem yesterday which may throw a question mark about Jamie giing 100% today so it may be worth seeing how he copes with his earlier rides before wading in. Again not a strict price gapper bet because of the close proximity of Stevie Thunder. Ahould Jamie be ok today, What KAtie Did , at the price ,may be worth a bet
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bold Adventure, 6/1 Three Boars, 8/1 Golano, Scutch Mill, 10/1 Black Mogul, 12/1 Mighty Kitchener, Papradon, Theflyingscottie, Yab Adee, 100/1 New Diamond.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these need to be played late which makes prominent racer Black Mogul all the more interesting from stall 1 under Francis Norton. However, hat-trick seeking BOLD ADVENTURE (nap) is probably still ahead of the handicapper.[AM]
Yes it's one of those - a multiple handicap winner installed as favourite again. A 7 lb rise this time - "probably still ahead of the handicapper" is a positive. As with previous examples, it's a matter of guaging if this is the race where the winning sequence will end as with each race the weight increases bringing the rest of the field closer, or whether, indeed, the horse is sufficiiently ahead of the handicapper to enable him to get the hatrick. It's up to you! - build up a case to back or lay
COMMENT
Again no ideal price gappers today - those above are worthy of further investigation but each has a niggle
EACH WAY
2 selections yesterday with one winner at 11/4
410 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Yaddree, 9/4 City Stable, 6/1 Downhiller, Oberlin, 10/1 Dandy Erin, 12/1 Driven, 16/1 Muharjam, Ten Pole Tudor, 40/1 Iron Cross, 66/1 Dance Easily, Highly Regal.
4 before 10\1 hint that these 4 look good for a place. From an each way perspective I will chance Downhiller
505 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kova Hall, 7/2 Glimmer Of Light, 4/1 Mr Bigglesworth, Roussea, 5/1 Albarino, 20/1 Iaskofyou, 33/1 Layasar, Working Late.
A 5 horse race with 3 the place - I'll chance Albarino each waY

24 OCT

Get in the Scarlett HEart - 4\1 at the off, I still backed it because of the Spotlight commentary! A great day all round really which would have been actually made better had Man Of Integrity beaten The jolly at Faryhouse. Another templated bet in Spanish Conquest ,but Seb Sanders earned his riding fee that's for sure!
PRICE GAPPERS
750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Musical Script, 7/1 Divalini, Minnow, 9/1 Nistaki, 10/1 Desert Light, Jayanjay, Pamir, Triskaidekaphobia, 14/1 Patavium Prince, 16/1 Galaxy Of Stars, Lindbergh, 25/1 Green Lagonda.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for the consistent and in-form MUSICAL SCRIPT, who acts well over C&D with blinkers and rates the safest option.[BDO]
I'm always wary when price gapper favs aren't nearer to evens like yesterday's - that's not to say they won't win - this one has Seb Sanders on board, in this 5 furlong sprint.
"the safest option" -"likely to be thereabouts" - not really will be very hard to beat now is it. An evening race if there is confidence for the horse then that may be heeded
As it stands, a better each way race I feel
Possible in the first at Lingfield but the words 2 no world beater" hardly instil confidence

No real price gappers for me today at all
450 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 The Iron Giant, 4/1 Kind Sir, 11/2 Buckland Gold, 6/1 Macgyver, 10/1 Batchworth Beau, French Direction, Kaikovra, 16/1 Bill Owen, 20/1 Action Spirit, 25/1 Sean Og, 33/1 Past Heritage.
Macgyver each way
620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Melt, 7/2 Lady Vibeeka, 4/1 Kalligal, 11/2 Solo River, 6/1 Blue Zenith, 12/1 Mayview, 20/1 Ely Une, 25/1 Queens Mantle, 33/1 Forever Changes, 50/1 Seductive Witch.
5 before 6\1 - maiden fillies - chance on Blue Zenith each way

Not the best day's racing race type wise

23rd OCT235 FAIRYHOUSE

High standing won at 4/6 and ocean de moulin won at 5/4 which was a nice price for a small field event
Brave bugsy was 13/2 in the betting forecast yet went off at 20/1 - had i known that earlier he wouldn't have been a bet! Ochre Bay 3rd at 8/1 for each way with Sine dei unplaced

PRICE GAPPERS
We'll take High standing yesterday as one of the templated price gappers - the ideal bets that don't come along that often - the strike rate for templated bets is fantastic
Mention for Giant eagle in the first at fairyhouse, but this is a maiden hurdle and i have seen, time and time again, these nailed on shorties come 2nd or 3rd, probably a good race to attack from an each way perspective.
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Scarlett Heart, 5/1 Calloff The Search, 8/1 Davaye, Foreland Sands, 10/1 Xalted, 12/1 Almondillo, Savanagh Forest, 14/1 Eastern Princess, Inkjet, 16/1 Sherjawy, Tang, 33/1 Mango Piccle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Calloff The Search is better than his last Leicester run suggests and he should go well, but SCARLETT HEART will appreciate this drop in grade and may have too much class for today's opponents.[PSm]
Read what Spotlight has to say
Scarlett Heart
Pick of the weights here and will find this much easier than the handicaps she has been contesting; conditions shouldn´t be a problem and clearly the one to beat
Not a templated price gapper by any stretch, but at 5/2 early morning show may be worth a small interest. the drop in grade is the main reason for backing in this lowly seller, the price gap remains early doors but as you can guess this is a seller so any horse in this race is there for a reason. Still 5/2 is a decent enough price
450 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Spanish Conquest, 8/1 Zalkani, 10/1 War Of The Roses, Watchmaker, 12/1 Full Of Promise, Little Richard, Sopran Gath, Trevian, 16/1 Summer Bounty, 20/1 Mid Valley, 25/1 Safari Sundowner, 50/1 Coastal Breeze, Hey Presto, Mejhar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPANISH CONQUEST (nap) was clear of the third when chasing home subsequent winner Polyquest on his handicap debut and although he is 6lb higher this time, he is the one runner in the field open to plenty of improvement. Zalkani and War Of The Roses could provide the stiffest opposition.[PSm]
Now evens in the morning prices , one of those price gaps that stand out , napped by spotlight - I'm a little concerned there's no " will be very hard to beat2 etc. but you can't argue with the price gap
COMMENT - concern with ability to handle ground for Spanish Conquest but apart from that ticks all the boxes. Scarlett heart is more for those wanting to get a calculated risk at a relatively big price on the drop in grade doing the business
EACH WAY
one big drifter yesterday couldnt be accounted for.
I'll stick to my policy of selecting 3 only per day - hopefully it naturally selects the best 3
210 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prince De Bersy, 3/1 Gaelic Present, 7/2 Mister Gloss, 9/2 Arafan, 8/1 Ask Oscar, 20/1 Fort Of Gold, 50/1 Mr Woodrow, 100/1 Blues Story, Mariday, Missy Moscow, Mrs Tweedy, River Fields, The Well Of Dreams.
5 before 20\1 look to be the ones to concentrate on ( future price drifts not withstanding)so any one of them should be competitive for a place so it'll be Mister Gloss eaach way for me
(hope I've chosen the right one to at least place)
240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Warsaw Pact, 4/1 Jack Rolfe, Master Wells, 9/2 Qualify, 16/1 Go Johnny Go, 20/1 Definite Lynn, 33/1 Grand Sefton, Kiwi Royalty, 50/1 Silent City.
Again 4 before 16\1 should be involved - Jack rolfe each way for me although at 3/1 not an ideal each way price should WarsAW pact falter i think Jack could take advantage
235 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Giant Eagle, 7/2 South Upper Street, 10/1 Man Of Integrity, 12/1 Tango Line, 16/1 Brewing Up A Storm, Capparoe Cross, 20/1 Cautious Gemini, Cutting Chrystal, Just Todd, 25/1 Breakfast On Pluto, Lisa´s Fancy, Whatsittoyou, 33/1 Oyster Queen, Ralphtown, 50/1 Emmy Supreme, Tom Wynn.
A maiden hurdle and an opportunity for some speculative each way punting - 2 in the one raace in Man of Intergrity and Tango line - should Giant Eagle or South upper street falter, I hope one of these 2 can take advantage
TWIN CYCLES
Successful yesterday with Ocean De Moulin - exeter looks the place to concetrate on today
310 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Nation State, 5/4 President Royal, 10/1 So Cloudy, 25/1 Thunder Child.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a match. President Royal was tempting getting the weight but some ease underfoot could be important to him and that swings the pendulum in favour of NATION STATE, who appreciates some cut himself but does at least have a good-ground win to his name
first 2 in the betting here - small field - looks a 2 horse race

22 OCT

Nothing yesterday
PRICE GAPPERS
520 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Ocean Du Moulin, 7/2 Quintessentially, 6/1 Ashleys Poppy, 10/1 Archie Gunn, Winsley Hill, 25/1 Crank Hill .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OCEAN DU MOULIN boasts the best piece of form courtesy of his second at Kempton and, with fitness an unlikely stumbling block on his return to action, he'll be tough to turn over if handling the conditions Ground concerns here do not make this a templated bet, but positives include the small field and 3 horses at 10/1 or greater. if we have him we'll be betting on the horse's ability to handle the ground and replicate his most recent performance. 400 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 High Standing, 8/1 Loose Caboose, 14/1 Howards Hope, Mystickhill, Princess Rhianna, 16/1 Copperbottomed, Gulf Coast, 20/1 Border Defence, 25/1 Mairead´s Boy, 33/1 Myriola, Silca Destination, 50/1 Lekin Sedona, Madame Rio . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGH STANDING had loads in hand when running away with a Kempton nursery last week and he should be able to defy this penalty with ease. Howards Hope and Loose Caboose look best of the rest.[PSm God Help me - a 2 year old class 6 nursery over 5 furlongs on the all weather - the kind of price gap that jumps off the page. Slight concerns regarding penalty and tough draw - the draw is an increasingly important factor the shorter the distances. The price gap remains this morning at 8/13 - - - 8/1, and at 8/13 he's worth a punt . Jamie Spencer still needs winners so I'll put my faith in him. Spotlight " should" be able is not the most confident wording My one selection I think will be High Standing BUT 5 furlongs, lowest grade nursery ( equivalent of a handicap) - penalty and bad draw are all convincing arguments against the horse. Ocean de Moulin - small field 3 "presumed" outsiders - fewer rivals EACH WAYS 245 CURRAGH Sine Dei - 3rd then 2nd is progressing and at 4/1 is a decent each way hope 220 PLUMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Soulard, 9/2 Art Market, 6/1 Boot ´n Toot, Count Kristo, 13/2 Brave Bugsy, 8/1 Rapid Increase, 10/1 Ohana, 33/1 Ground Patrol, Mr Joe Platinum, Smokey The Bear, 50/1 Napoletano, Starofthemorning, 100/1 Inching West, Minstrel Flyer. Half the field are 33/1 or over - can we leave these out of our calculations? If so, then we have 7 horses on the shortlist for an each way selection. I will opt for Brave Bugsy each way, nestled in the centre and looks priced to be competitive for a place at least 230 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Swinbrook, 3/1 Councellor, 5/1 Ninth House, 6/1 Ochre Bay, 8/1 Local Poet, Onenightinlisbon, 16/1 Swing The Ring, 20/1 On The Map, 33/1 King´s Spear, 100/1 Just Crystal, Mays Louise, Quorn Master. Again, 6 before 16/1 and we can assume they should be good place only candidates at least in this poor claimer. Ochre BAy for me here each way TWIN CYCLES - came in with the minimum of fuss. REmember we are not restricted just by chosing horse races. Any 2 person/team event is ideal for ttwin cycle betting , such as tennis, rugby ( without the draw) ,even baccarat on betfair games!. Use your imagination. As to today,

520 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Ocean Du Moulin, 7/2 Quintessentially, 6/1 Ashleys Poppy, 10/1 Archie Gunn, Winsley Hill, 25/1 Crank Hill .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OCEAN DU MOULIN boasts the best piece of form courtesy of his second at Kempton and, with fitness an unlikely stumbling block on his return to action, he'll be tough to turn over if handling the conditions.[AWJ]

I return to this race and the first 2 should give us a run for our money although this is a bumper it is a small field

20 OCT

Credit to Snap Tie winning at a decent price.

The O’Brien horses came nowhere, Short Skirt won well, as did Spinning Lucy, and with Genera; Eliot winning at 6/1 this accounted for the 2 unplaced each way prospects.

PRICE GAPPERS

155 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Torrens, 4/1 Bronze Dancer, 5/1 Cripsey Brook, 10/1 Mister Fizzbomb, Paparaazi, York Cliff, 16/1 Starcross Maid, 33/1 Hook Money, The Mighty Ogmore, 50/1 Camerooney, Dimashq.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Claimers are never quite as cut and dried as the ratings suggest, but if TORRENS reproduces his latest second at Lingfield, he is going to prove very hard to beat. Bronze Dancer could be the one to capitalise if Richard Fahey's charge underperforms.[PSm]

“if . ….he is going to be very hard to beat” – being Picky, I’d prefer not to see the “if”.Price gap remains in the morning prices, and although this is a poor claimer, Torrens looks good at least for a place.

245 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Frankie Figg, 7/1 Ethan´s Star, 10/1 Balamory Dan, Harcas, Oh Yah Dancer, 20/1 Mr Floppy, Star Player, 25/1 Fiftyfive Degrees, Mr Woods, The Saltire Tiger, 33/1 Chapel Flowers, Craiglands, Leprechaun´s Maite, 66/1 Lusabawn, Meda´s Song, 100/1 Familiar Affair.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All roads point to FRANKIE FIGG, who settled much better (in the race, at least) when scoring on his recent reappearance at Hexham (form franked) and he's more than capable of defying a penalty, especially at a track that suits his style of racing when the ground is on top

Very good price gap. No ultra confidence from Spotlight. There are only 5 horses priced less than 20/1 indicating no real strength in depth. This looks a race to concentrate on from an each way perspective, although I wouldn’t put anyone off Frankie Figg, but you must be mindful he runs under a penalty and also drops in trip.

700 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Al Badeya, 7/1 Spiffing, Sweetsformysweet, Thea Di Bisanzio, 10/1 By The Edge, 12/1 Brave Falcon, Perlachy, 16/1 Elizabeth Spirit, Epidaurian King, Piccolo Diamante, 20/1 Whats Your Game, 25/1 Flashin Amber, Punching.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The in-form AL BADEYA would need only to replicate recent prominent efforts to take all the beating in this company for her top yard.[BDO]

Seems to tick all the boxes as regards price gap and comment “need only prelicate recent prominent efforts to take all the beating “

At 6/5 this is my probably one bet today for the price gapers. Seb Sanders needs to boot in the winners to keep title hopes alive

405 CHELTENAHM

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Out The Black, 9/4 Life For Rent, 6/1 Apollo Creed, King Ali, 13/2 Gone To Lunch, 16/1 Morgan The Mighty, 20/1 Cave Of The Giant, 100/1 Auditor.

Out the black at 11/4 looks worth an each way punt – should be competitive

515 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Patman Du Charmil, 3/1 Blu Teen, 9/2 Ice Tea, 5/1 Minella Tipperary, 12/1 Coin Man, Joe Lively, 25/1 Classic Clover, 100/1 Thyne Spirit.

4 before 12/1 – Ice tea each way at 4/1 could place at least

245 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Frankie Figg, 7/1 Ethan´s Star, 10/1 Balamory Dan, Harcas, Oh Yah Dancer, 20/1 Mr Floppy, Star Player, 25/1 Fiftyfive Degrees, Mr Woods, The Saltire Tiger, 33/1 Chapel Flowers, Craiglands, Leprechaun´s Maite, 66/1 Lusabawn, Meda´s Song, 100/1 Familiar Affair.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All roads point to FRANKIE FIGG, who settled much better (in the race, at least) when scoring on his recent reappearance at Hexham (form franked) and he's more than capable of defying a penalty, especially at a track that suits his style of racing when the ground is on top

The each way option could work here if Frankie Figg underperforms Ethans Star is the most obvious

TWIN CYCLES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Royal And Regal, 9/4 Distinction, 4/1 Balkan Knight, 8/1 Hawridge Prince, Under The Rainbow, 14/1 Veenwouden, 50/1 Invasian, 100/1 Colinca´s Lad, Tobaro,

Worth trying the first 2 here for the cycles with so many at bigger prices

19 oct

Iron Maid won but touched evens in running as ohmissymoss put up a fight. But, for backers and layers in running this was another winning trade.

Lusaka de Pembo went off at 11/4 – alarm bells ringing. There may the semblance of a lay system here if the betting forecast favourite does not go off as favourite and the price difference between the betting forecast price and live market price is significantly altered? I was right to suggest an each way angle in this race

Herecomesstanley won –fair play to the horse. Dasher Reilly came 2^nd as I expected for each way backers

Blazing Sky won at a good price 8/13 relative to the price in the betting forecast

The Senakster failed to place

The twin cycles bet came off – again horses finishing 1^st and 2^nd giving little cause for concern

CHELTENHAM

Class 2 and 3 jumps races today – a decent quality and the big boys are here in force

550

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Snap Tie, 5/1 Sendani, 6/1 Quaddick Lake, 7/1 Greenlough, 15/2 My Old Piano, 11/1 Commander Kev, Truckers Delight, 14/1 Imperial Harry, Zirkel, 16/1 Most Definitely, Sienna Storm, 25/1 Cactus King, Ruby Valentine, 28/1 Symbiosis, 33/1 Newby Abbey, Taipan´s Promise, 66/1 Peak Seasons.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not that much to go on, particularly with regards to form shown over hurdles, and market reference should be useful. Paul Nicholls' Sendani is interesting but preference is for SNAP TIE, who showed a good bit of ability as a useful bumper horse last season, including here. [MCu

I’m scraping the barrel trying to find a price gapper. There is a hint of one here. With Snap Tie now 7/4 - - - -4/1. This is a maiden hurdle so I won’t be getting involved

845 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Mikhail Fokine, 9/2 Seader, 7/1 Ladbrokes Lad, 8/1 Lethal Weapon, Windsor Palace, 12/1 Quitit, Stoned Immaculate, 20/1 Croi Mo Ri, Force And Motion, 25/1 Seans Lad, 33/1 Dynamo Dan, Magical Six, The Gnathologist.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIKHAIL FOKINE, unplaced in a maiden at Doncaster in between two good placed efforts on home-territory, holds a strong chance. First time out, the Sadler's Wells colt was third in a Leopardstown maiden won by the subsequent Beresford Stakes runner-up Domestic Fund, and he fared better than two shorter-priced runners for Aidan O'Brien when second to Moiqen over this trip at Navan nine days ago.

Aiden Obrien hotpot seems to be justified as favourite. No Fallon on board, so Jamie Heffernan the ideal replacement. The live market will be key here I feel and with it being an evening meeting a little look in the market will determine the strength of confidence behind the Ballydoyle representative.

910

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Don Pedro Mendoza, 5/1 Cool Touch, 6/1 Kevkat, 13/2 Fly Free, 8/1 Davidii, Mull On The Run, 16/1 El Diego, 20/1 Akimbo, Etu, 100/1 Bucuresti.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DON PEDRO MENDOZA (nap), who was still a bit backward when second to Air Twist on his debut at Listowel last month, is making up for lost time and looks set to record his third success inside only a little more than two weeks. Having prevailed by a mere short head from the 81-rated Nazdaq at Gowran, he seemed to face no easy task at the weights at Navan nine days ago, but rose to the occasion and showed a good attitude to earn a share of the spoils with Laywaan, a useful four-year-old filly making a belated seasonal debut.

Another Aiden Obrien fav – good price gap reflected in early morning prices – again it’s a long time away do decision making will be made nearer the time. There are other bigger priced Ballydoyle representatives and they could be worth an each way interest

NEWMARKET

The start of another good quality festival at Newmarket

Short Skirt may qualify as a price gapper but concern over the time off. That said, at 2/1 there is some value to be had, with Godolphin juveniles in blistering form.

I wouldn’t back any lower given the size and quality of the field

REDCAR

320

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Spinning Lucy, 7/2 Ibis, 6/1 Anne Of Kiev, 10/1 Seta Pura, 14/1 Hasty Lady, 20/1 Cealtra Star, Island Music, Piverina, 33/1 Mathool, Miss Sunshine, Princess Maria, Tendulkar´s Diva, 66/1 Petite Music, 100/1 Petidium, Steph The Ref.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Newcomers Ibis and Anne Of Kiev are well bred newcomers and market support for either will be interesting. However, at this stage it's hard to get away from SPINNING LUCY, who has had a few chances but who has shown more than enough to suggest she's capable of winning a race of this nature. [RY]

Ibis is now 5/2 and this race looks to revolve around the first 3 in the betting. Spinning Lucy “hard to get away from” – I like to see these words.2 year old maiden fillies race –15 runners is the negative, and likely place only material given the race type

Ibis is the Godolphin newcomer and has not raced before so preference would be for the experience of Spinning Lucy . That said, prices are 5/4 - - 5/2 now so so real price gap – a decision will have to be made regarding experience versus potential and reputation

EACH WAY

440 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Five Dream, 9/4 Hypnotic Vibes, 4/1 Summer Of Love, 15/2 Sainte Kadette, 12/1 Silmi, 20/1 Kanonkop, Letham Island, 25/1 Zafonical Storm, 40/1 Lemon Silk, 150/1 Feeling Peckish.

4 before the 12/1 horse – 2 at unbackable prices for each way purposes, so its Summer of Love for me

100 Newmarket

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Polmaily, 11/4 Manalito, 3/1 Sortita, 7/1 General Eliott, 16/1 Amanjena, 20/1 Hellzapoppin, Wine ´n Dine, 33/1 Indian Skipper, Sarah´s Boy, 50/1 Serious Choice, 66/1 Hotel Felix.

General Eliot each way here – looks to involve 4 if the forecaster is accurate

530

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Esthlos, 7/2 Dubai Twilight, 9/2 Greek Envoy, 11/2 Cutting Crew, 11/1 Kings Quay, 14/1 Mikao, Oh Glory Be, 16/1 Star Of Light, Velvet Heights.

Dubai Twilight each way

18 oct

Gipsy Prince came 4^th at 2/1, not really a price gapper in the ideal we should be looking for. Earlsfield Radier 3^rd at 6/4 = again as I said yesterday it was not an ideal price gapper. Elizabeth Swann didn’t run and Whispered Dreams came in for the red hot godolphin 2 year olds ( apart from the most expensive purchase which I believe still has a furlong to run ( he started yesterday)! Mozakharaf unplaced at 6.1. Kylayne came 1^st at 7/1 which, when limiting each ways to 3 selections ensures a profit

Good to soft at Brighton today may throw a spanner in the works, an dno race above class 5 does not augur well.

LUDLOW

220

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Iron Maid, 13/2 The Sneakster, 8/1 Ohmissymoss, 10/1 Rashida, 12/1 Lady Romanov, 14/1 White Cloud, 33/1 Blackbury, Miss O´Murchu, 66/1 Another Tootsie, Molly Coddle, Tyrone Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IRON MAID was never in danger of defeat when laughing at the handicapper's assessment of her at Fontwell and this half-sister to smart chaser Longshanks looks the type to keep on improving. The Sneakster can chase her home.[AWJ]

4/11 in a novice hurdle – I’ll get me coat! Worthy of following in the live market but unbackable at the price

Iron Maid

Looked on a reasonable mark for her return to action in a 2m6f handicap at Fontwell and duly won well, justifying strong market support in the process; hard to beat in this company if repeating that and likely to do so.

Again, if only this was near evens! Has the profile of a great price gapper bet but there is an “if”. The strong market support was in the last race – have we missed the boat as far as getting on at the right time is concerned

320

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lusaka De Pembo, 11/2 Coeur D´Alene, 8/1 Borehill Joker, Cassia Heights, 10/1 Left Hand Drive, Oily Colman, 12/1 Liverpool Echo, Return Home, 14/1 Vibe, 20/1 Good Man Again, Smokey Mountain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The one with no question marks is LUSAKA DE PEMBO (nap), who is getting his act together at the moment. The switch to David Pipe and the refitting of a tongue-tie have seen him win two of his five starts for the yard and, although 8lb higher than for last week's Wincanton victory, there may well be more to come.

Napped and a decent price gap, although now 9/4 - - - - 9/2 –the price gap has shortened. Form 12421 means the horse has caught the handicapper’s attentions and the ideal would seem to be a place only bet here, or attacking this race from an each way perspective

350

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Herecomestanley, 5/1 Dasher Reilly, 8/1 Major Faux Pas, 10/1 Lilac, Orlyheart, 14/1 Joli Classical, 16/1 Musally, 20/1 Lupin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hat-trick seeker Herecomestanley will be hugely popular but DASHER REILLY is an interesting alternative on his first start for Evan Williams, now he's back on some better ground.[AWJ]

Great price gap, but early morning prices evens - - - 4/1 indicate that Dasher Reilly will pose a significant threat to the selection. Concern that Spotlight hasn’t even chosen the horse.Multiple winner in handicap company means more weight and these winning sequences must end soon. Likely to run very well but the obvious bet looks to be Dasher Reilly each way with 8 the field

PUNCHESTOWN

315

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Blazing Sky, 6/1 Pistol Flash, 10/1 Killeen Castle, 12/1 Sorrentina, 14/1 Pennyforurthoughts, 20/1 Amber Trix, Fall O´ The Hammer, Ten To Twelve, 25/1 Woodstock Lass, 33/1 Dippy Duck, Saddlers´ Queen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLAZING SKY holds an outstanding chance at the weights. Confidence in her ability to produce an effort in keeping with her rating is based on the fact that she was produced in fine shape to overcame a long absence here a year ago, and today's opposition includes nothing of the calibre of the two mares whom she beat on that occasion, Brogella and Celestial Wave. Thouh her form was slightly erratic through the remainder of the season, there was an excuse (finished lame) for her below-par run at Fairyhouse in April, and she signed off later that month with a lively effort in taking third place behind Grangeclare Lark in a Grade 3 race over today's course and trip.

“outstanding chance at the weights” – good price gap – listed race so no mugs in opposition. Ruby on Killeen castle looks appealing. If the price gap remains I’ll be on this one in this listed race. I won’t back below 1 / 2 for a good quality race filled with decent horses

PRICE GAPPERS COMMENTS

I wouldn’t say any of the selections today were ideal price gapers and probably Blazing sky is the only one of interest, and still the price is likely to be short for this listed hurdles event. Selections today are either handicap winners rising steadily in weight or consistent handicappers whose consistent streak may end soon from a sequencing perspective. So officially nothing really appeals as a confident bet a la Collection the other day. Best to concentrate on the each way angle today

220 LUDLOW

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Iron Maid, 13/2 The Sneakster, 8/1 Ohmissymoss, 10/1 Rashida, 12/1 Lady Romanov, 14/1 White Cloud, 33/1 Blackbury, Miss O´Murchu, 66/1 Another Tootsie, Molly Coddle, Tyrone Lady.

Likely a procession by the Iron Maid – at least that’s what the 4/11 is telling me, but this is a novice hurdle and the fav is so short to make a bit of each way thievery possible. The obvious candidate is the sneakster at 8/1 each way

350 LUD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Herecomestanley, 5/1 Dasher Reilly, 8/1 Major Faux Pas, 10/1 Lilac, Orlyheart, 14/1 Joli Classical, 16/1 Musally, 20/1 Lupin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hat-trick seeker Herecomestanley will be hugely popular but DASHER REILLY is an interesting alternative on his first start for Evan Williams, now he's back on some better ground.[AWJ]

Another potential price gapper, but in Dasher Reilly we look to have a great chance of at least the place, and the chance that ,if the favs winning seuqnece should end today ,or the rise in the weights find him out, old Dasher can exploit this

TWIN CYCLES

Remember what happened last time I chose 2 in a maiden – it was won by a 40/1 shot with a 200/1 placing ! Ho Hum!

720 Wolves

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Loyal Knight, 7/4 Safebreaker, 8/1 My Shadow, 10/1 Artistic Light, 11/1 Bewdley, 16/1 Marfeng, 25/1 Poppy Red, 33/1 Regal Tradition, 66/1 Miss Bouggy Wouggy, 100/1 Jimmy Dean.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two to concentrate on are the two runners that have already been gelded. LOYAL KNIGHT sets the standard on form, has shaped like this could be his ideal trip this year and is marginally preferred to Safebreaker, who has a pedigree that suggests the step up to this trip should suit. [DM]

First 2 here look in with a shout for the twin progressive cycles. If any money comes for the others to bump their price uncomfortably close to the main 2 then leave the bet alone. Keeping the price gap is important

17 OCT

The price market confirmed Plavius as NOT a price gapper – 4/6 Prime Exhibit - - - 9/4 Plavius told you all you needed to know regarding the confidence of the expensive buy. Prime Exhibit went on to win and Plavius – well he’s still running I think. Collection won with the minimum of fuss. The problem is with these obvious selections, the price collapses – this didn’t stop me backing at 1.47 and laying at 1.20 in running for a relatively straightforward profit
Mr Wise Guy 8^th at 9/1. Marzelline came 3^rd at 15/2, paying out for the place on Betfair ( 7 runners from 8 runner field mean the bookies only paid out on the first 2)

Misplaced fortune came 3^rd at 11/4. Twin cycles came in 1^st and 2^nd , both at over evens which was a bonus.

KEMPTON

750

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gipsy Prince, 11/2 Spinning Ridge, 6/1 High Standing, 8/1 Southwest Star, 10/1 Alabama Spirit, 12/1 Cordon Bleu, 14/1 Valentino Sky, 16/1 Battlecruiser, Don´t Tell Anna, Joss Stick, Madame Rio, 33/1 Eastbourne.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Valentino Sky wouldn’t be the first son of Stravinsky to improve for the fitting of headgear and he could go well at a price, but GIPSY PRINCE (nap) looked better than this grade when a ready winner here last time and can defy his penalty before being upped in grade

Gipsy Prince is not quite short enough to be an ideal, but is worthy of a second look due to Spotlight’s comment. Again not an ideal price gapper, a la Collection yesterday which was the first proper one in a long while. May be worth an investment, and looks better as a place only bet

335 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Earlsfield Raider, 5/1 Chunky Lad, 7/1 Paradise Expected, 8/1 Tashkandi, 10/1 Harry´s Lane, 12/1 Ashgrove Express, 14/1 Monash Lad, Mrs Bridge, 16/1 Sninfia, 33/1 Red Sea Raven, 50/1 Bonney Flame, Colemanstown, Royal Sailor, Sharp Duo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: One-time useful hurdler EARLSFIELD RAIDER only just failed to exploit a drop into this grade last time and, with conditions fine, he can gain recompense here.[BDO]

Good enough price gap –drop in grade – but a selling hurdle ,class 5 so nothing to get over excited about. A second when last dropped into this grade, an obvious opportunity to gain recompense, but it must be added again that this is NOT an ideal price gapper like Collection – now “will be very hard to beat” from Spotlight

Again nothing I can confidently say – YES to ,like Collection yesterday.

EACH WAY

220 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Whispered Dreams, 7/2 Elizabeth Swann, 8/1 Dhhamaan, Our Chairman, Sweet Hope, 12/1 Connor´s Choice, Hla Tun, Solemn, 14/1 Hennessy Island, Wannabe Free, 16/1 Game Park, 20/1 Toasted Special, 50/1 Ski Sunday, 100/1 Southpaw Lad.

Another Godolphin easy winner or a flop? That’s Whispered dreams. 5 horses before 12/1 and it may be worth an each way interest in Elizabeth Swann, a multiple 2^nd placer should place again at the very least. I’m not sure what the price will be in this maiden – all dependent on Whispered Dreams support

250 LING

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Samuel Charles, 4/1 Katiypour, Mineral Star, 7/1 Mozakhraf, 14/1 Chalentina, 16/1 Angel Voices, Izabela Hannah, Tipsy Lad, 25/1 Captain Darling, Rafferty, 33/1 Pivotal Era, Windy Prospect, 66/1 Da Schadenfreude, Mujobliged.

4 before 14/1, worth an each way punt on Mozakharaf

355 LING

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Aide Memoir, 11/4 Ernie Owl, 4/1 Kylayne, May Day Queen, 10/1 Pha Mai Blue, 14/1 Swallow Star, 25/1 Little Knickers, 100/1 Sharps Gold, 200/1 Miss Willoughby.

Again 4 before 10/1 should be able to place and I’ll opt for Kylayne each way

NOT TWIN CYCLES TODAY – worth waiting for a good opportunity

16/10

2 winners at 4/1. What happened in the maiden - another shock! 40/1 winner, 66/1 2nd and 200/1 3rd. I was right to take on the favs but wish I had been more adventurous regarding each way selections!
PRICE GAPPERS
510 LEicester

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Plavius, 11/4 Tiger Dream, 3/1 Prime Exhibit, 10/1 Endless Luck, 20/1 Monterrico, Regal Best, 25/1 Nordic Commander, Red Leaves, 33/1 Charmel´s Lad, Gardes, 100/1 Buddy Holly, Festival Dreams .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Prime Exhibit and Tiger Dream still have a Racing Post Trophy entry, but all eyes will be on $9,200,000 buy PLAVIUS and he can continue the fine form of his yard.[AC]

Not a price gapper at all, with PRime exhibit now 2/1 , but interesting to read the Spotlight comment - a $9,200,000 purchase in Plavius! They've flopped before and are classic cases of short price based solely on reputation and no racing evidence. It looks 3 the field here ,and contradicting what I just said, Plavius may be worth an interest given the fact Godolphin wouldn't fork out that much for a horse who comes 2nd!

250 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Collection, 7/1 Hampton Court, 8/1 Royal Applord, 9/1 Red Tarn, 12/1 Shanafarahan, 25/1 Patthepainter, Power Desert, 33/1 Roman Legion, Solar Spirit, 50/1 Cashmere Jack, 66/1 Manuka Bee, 100/1 Lekin Sedona, Paint Stripper .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look past COLLECTION who has several big race entries and shaped with bags of promise on his debut. Royal Applaud and Red Tarn look good bets for the places if the newcomer Hampton Court ends up needing the experience.[GN]

Yes this is more like it - price gap is there ( now currently 1/2 and I wouldn't get involved any lower) , "Hard to look past" ticks the boxes for comments I want to see from Spotlight.
Collection

Good effort in face of tough task on debut in minor event at Salisbury in conditions similar to these behind a previous and progressive winner, never getting to him but pulling clear of an
80-rated maiden in third; normal improvement will make him very hard to beat.
Yes those words "very hard to beat" are clearly evident
NEGATIVES -a 13 runner class 5 maiden race is not out of the top draw. Collection is short priced based on one sole run and we have seen these fall by the way side in the past. We would be simply betting here on a replication of the sole outing or an improvement in the sole outing.
CONCLUSION - Seb Sanders is on board and as the jockeys tussle with JAmie Spencer continues, you can be assured Seb will ensure victory on those most obvious opportunities.
A win bet for me, with preference for a back before the race and lay off in increments in running


PRICE GAPPERS COMMENT - Collection pretty much fits the bill of a templated price gapper example, with a prominent price gap and the words "very hard to beat" without any ifs or buts.Alas another maiden race but worth chancing.
Plavius is NOT a price gapper selection at all with price gap 6/4 - - - 2/1 which is far too short. For a horse making his debut, backers will be swayed by the price tag of $9,200,000 - if that makes a strong argument for backing then go ahead, but be mindful there are 2 other horses in close proximity betting wise, and the horse doesn't know his price tag!

EACH WAYS
300 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Prince De Bersy, 3/1 Ouragan De Prairie, 9/2 Croon, 5/1 Mr Wiseguy, 14/1 Calusa Caldera, 20/1 Viennchee Run, 25/1 Eau De Vie, 50/1 Tickford Abbey, 100/1 Herninski, Spiritwind.
5 before 14/1 indicate the race should, in the betting forecasters eyes, be fought out between these. Mr Wise Guy for me each way
340 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sudoor, 9/4 Lady Gloria, 4/1 Marzelline, 9/2 Chantilly Tiffany, 6/1 Turban Heights, 100/1 Poppets Sweetlove, 200/1 Tokyo Jo, 500/1 Little Darlin .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LADY GLORIA (nap) has a little to find on ratings but, most importantly, she has conditions in her favour and can be relied upon to give her running and that is likely to count for plenty here in a race where most of her rivals have questions marks hanging over them. Turban Heights looked a filly going places here last time and could give her most to do. [GN]

5 horses before the outsiders will fight this out. -Marzelline each way - Sudoor looks to have surrendered favouratism early doors
220 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hallingdal, 2/1 African Flight, 6/1 Misplaced Fortune, 16/1 Caffari, Snickers First, 25/1 Floral Guest, 33/1 Lu´s Woman, Mchepple, Reel Cool, 50/1 Ice Choice.
Misplaced fortune each way for me - the bettingforecaster foresees a 3 horse race in essence

TWIN CYCLES
I just knew if I took a chance in a maiden it would come back to haunt me.!
500 HUNT
I'm asking for trouble again getting involved in a bumper.

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Over Sixty, 2/1 Flemish Invader, 5/2 Doubly Sharp, 14/1 Punjabi Army, 20/1 Palos Conti, 50/1 Radmores Revenge, Shampers .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Over Sixty looks a likely type from a top yard but DOUBLY SHARP does have some experience behind him and this ground could be more suitable than on his debut at Newbury, where a big run was evidently expected judged by the support he attracted (8-1 from 22-1).[AWJ]

Over Sixty and Flemish invader could be the ones here - I am mindful of the proximity of Doubly sharp but hope I can get a winner from the 2 I have selected

15/8

A garbled message yesterday didn’t copy and paste correctly. Pindar was a non runner. Shuil Aris came 2^nd , Fring won and Accusation came 2^nd for each way, and Picky won at 9/4, not quite an each way price, ,but this support for him was obviously well founded.

No price gappers at all today – some nearlies who appear in maidens and are not that confidently written about in Spotlight.

EACH WAY

310 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Fifty, 4/1 Meydan Princess, 6/1 Danvers, Doric Lady, 10/1 Gower Belle, 12/1 Town And Gown, 20/1 Silky Steps, Tea Cake, 25/1 Where´s Killoran, 33/1 Run From Nun.

Maiden fillies race – YUK! 6 of the 10 horses are priced 10/1 or over. Best to suggest concentrating on those left and swerve the market leader leading me to Danvers and Meydan Princess each way – 2 in the one race to hopefully exploit any mistakes by Fifty

400 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Zero Cool, 7/2 Duchess Royale, 5/1 Gib, 6/1 Shadow The Wind, 10/1 Oakley Heffert, 14/1 Just Two Numbers, Rudry Dragon, 16/1 Murrin, Seal Point, 25/1 Leptis Magna.

Again only 4 before 10/1, and Duchess Royale each way

220 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Distant Drama, 7/4 Towy Girl, 12/1 Vadinka, 16/1 The Cube, 25/1 Millsini, 33/1 Damhsoir, Lawdy Miss Clawdy, North Stars, Whats Your Game, 50/1 Crimson Fern, Night Rider, 66/1 Saint Remus, 100/1 Pathway To Glory.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a match between DISTANT DRAMA (nap) and Towy Girl, with preference for the former who is open to more improvement and does not have to prove herself at the trip.[GN]

2 horses making up the 100% book here . Again I will adopt a different strategy today and go for Vadinka and The Cube each way incase one of the market leaders runs below expectations

TWIN CYCLES

The above race will serve well for the twin cycles as long as the prices in the betting forecast are reflected in the live market. Any of the first 2 becoming non runners negates the bet.

A poor day today with 2 all weather low grade races stuffed with maidens and handicaps.

14 oct

The proximity of Pertinent to Theatrical moment should have been heeded yesterday as he won at good odds. Cork all star was a classic back and lay in running – didn’t even break sweat. Tot o whiskey won. Note to self – if you see Barney Curley horses stay away – backed off the boards yet Petrovich came nowhere – hmmmm!
Samira Gold 3^rd for each ways, Pistolet dove unplaced, and Quackers palced at 5/1 – still waiting for a winner but a palce will do to get stakes back, or partical stakes back in the interim. I must mention Market Forces yesterday – betting forecast 9/4 - - - 7/1 and I dismissed him but he won superbly, perhaps I should include these borderliners

PRICE GAPS

There haven’t been any templated Price gappers for some time now.

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Pindar, 6/1 Fantastic Delight, 7/1 Abbeygate, 8/1 Oasis Sun, 10/1 Megalala, 14/1 Cool Isle, Future Deal, 16/1 Myrtle Bay, 25/1 Bollywood, 33/1 Dawson Creek, Lady Ambitious, Littlemissdynamite, 66/1 Rainbow Prince, Smokey The Bear.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PINDAR was well on top at the finish at Wolverhampton on Friday evening and will be very difficult to beat, assuming the market vibes are similarly positive. Abbeygate looks best of the rest.[AM]

Barney Curley horse so I will leave a alone!Probably a non runner.

No real selections today although there are a couple with price gaps such as Shuil Aris ( why was he a non runner 5 days ago? Is he sound or was it the ground?), Fringe, BUT 6/5 - - 7/2 leans me more towards backing the 7/2 each way, and Fowey at Lingfield in an apprentice handicap ,class 6, price gap early doors 9/4 - - -4/1signifies more support for Picky at 4/1 than Fowey.

Each ways – nothing really stands out today although I will go for the 2 mentioned ,or hinted at ,above, in PICKY at the 210 Lingfiield and ACCUSATION in the 440 Goodwood – only 2 the place

13 OCT

I got myself a bit mixed up yesterday - I mentioned Paul's Plain as an obvious each way candidate yet chose him as my one for the day to win - clearly mistaken - the plce only was the clearest option in an 18 runner handicap.Elsewhere, Abraham Lincoln won easily ( wish they were all that clear cut), and Al Khaleej disapoointed. Of the each ways, Insurgent won, and Mastoori placed and Sine Dei placed.Today, typical Saturday ,and my mind will be more focussed on trading the football, with a number of mismatches offering better trading opportunities than the horses ( particulalry in this tansitionfrom flat to jumps)
PRICE GAPS
415 CHEPSTOWBETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Theatrical Moment, 4/1 Pertinent, 10/1 Presenting Copper, 16/1 Castlecrossings, Shanxi Girl, 20/1 Cool Cliche, 25/1 Lyricist´s Dream, 33/1 Fixed Interest, Our Choice, Visual Art, Wazalino, 50/1 Bayberry King, Lidjo De Rouge, Mister Wiseman, 150/1 Quantock Venture, 200/1 Tandori.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have the potential to win novice hurdles but unbeaten bumper performer THEATRICAL MOMENT looks star material and he's fancied to make a successful switch to hurdling, probably at the main expense of ex-French Pertinent.[DH]
Worth backing Theatrical Moment if 4/6 but Pertinent is very close in the betting.

230 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Cork All Star, 7/1 Clarkey, 8/1 Rossgavand, 12/1 Miley Byrne, 14/1 Born Supreme, Very Effecient, 16/1 Mr Fiertag, Mrs Brophy, 20/1 Bobsthewizard, Kenah Hill, 25/1 Aisling´s Jewel, Capparoe Cross, 33/1 Fardane, Sir Poppins, 50/1 Inter Mutanda, Philpot,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CORK ALL STAR is one of Ireland's leading novice hurdling prospects, and his presence here lights up an otherwise mundane card. The Fasliyev gelding won four of his five starts in bumpers, including an Irish-dominated renewal of the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, and has the physique to make a hurdler, notwithstanding his Flat pedigree. The loss of his his unbeaten record when fifth to Mick The Man in the Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown may have been caused by a failure to settle as effectively as usual. Basically, he has all the attributes of a potential top-class novice hurdler.\n

Basically unbackeble at the price but a prime example of the type of positivity and confidence you want to see. One to back and lay off in running
425 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tot O´Whiskey, 9/2 St James Gate, 11/2 Dreamaker, 9/1 Craiglands, 12/1 Panthers Run, 14/1 Mirage Dore, Ten Carat, 16/1 Sir Quigley, 20/1 Deramore Rythm, 33/1 Whatdoidowiththat, 100/1 Filey Buoy, I´m On Fire.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: High-class bumper recruit TOT O'WHISKEY is bred to make a smooth transition to hurdles and ought to possess too much quality for these.[BDO]

A price gap which has shortened in the early prices. Obviously well thought of, Tot o Whiskey is expected to obligee,BUT this is a maiden hurdle and things are never that straight forward in maiden hurdles

720 KEMPTON
BARNEY CURLEY ALERT - Petrovich inserted as warm favourite here - if you see constant money for him on Betfair ,then back him, if he drifts leave him alone. Here endeth the BArney Curley alert.
I will take a chance on THeatrical Moment as my one today, with the others obvious place only candidates
EACH WAY
145 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Queen´s Best, 100/30 Brisk Breeze, 7/2 Samira Gold, 10/1 Kayah, Winter Sunrise, 11/1 Rising Cross, Trick Or Treat, 12/1 Dash To The Front, 20/1 Athenian Way, 25/1 Loulwa, 33/1 Party, 40/1 Satulagi.

Samira at around 7\2 looks good to palce at least
435 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nez Rouge, 4/1 Pistolet Dove, 9/2 King Cyrus, 8/1 Very Cool, 9/1 Mcgarry´s Lane, 14/1 Kayf Keel, 16/1 Whiteoak, Young Yozza, 20/1 Perdiem, 66/1 Heebie Jeebie.

Pistolet each way should place at least for the powerful Hobbs yard
340 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Franchoek, 5/2 Qrackers, 3/1 Serabad, 6/1 Daltaban, 12/1 Tension Point, 16/1 Daylami Dreams, 20/1 Bring It On Home, 33/1 Apache Chant, Pennyrock, 40/1 Correy, 66/1 Stafford Will, 100/1 Spirit Rising.

QraCKERS AT 7\2 COULD BE CPOMPETITIVE FOR THE PLACE\WIN

12 OCT

Glad I left Teppe alone yesterday - the horse didn't even place. Grenfell was another close 2nd - worng choice between him and Rowdy YEats who won. Royal Rationale was not a price gapper bet because of the proximity of Summer of Love who won.

Each ways - Hucking Hill unplaced.Cave of the Giant placed 3rd.Golly unplaced,

A difficult period so a degree of caution today.
300 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Pauls Plain, 5/1 Rocknest Island, 10/1 Bleu Pois, Royal Game, Star Tenor, 14/1 Moon Melody, Queen Of Diamonds, The Hedge, 16/1 My Portfolio, 20/1 Emotive, Reckless Venture, 25/1 Hammer It Home, 33/1 Dunsemore, Kyle Of Lochalsh, Pavey Ark, 50/1 Carna Bobby, Mustang Du Gueslan, 100/1 Kinfayre Boy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PAULS PLAIN (nap) won with plenty in hand at Fontwell and a penalty is unlikely to prevent him from following up if in the same form.[AWJ]

POSITIVES - decent enough price gap which is mirrored in the early price market. Richard Johnson on board.
Pauls Plain

Didn´t look badly handicapped on pick of hurdle form but even so something of a surprise to see him score with so much authority at Fontwell last week, sporting cheekpieces for the first time on debut for this yard; was backed to do so and very much the one to beat here.
Napped as well
NEGATIVES - novices handicap hurdle with 18 runners. Arrrgh!
CONCLUSION - against my better judgement I'll back the horse today at odds against, although ready preference is for the place - 4 the palce in a 16+ runner handicap.

715 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Abraham Lincoln, 4/1 Nastrelli, 6/1 Mist And Stone, 10/1 Nanotech, 14/1 Poisiedon, Russian Empress, 20/1 Loughsider, Rural Retreat, Seal Colony, Upper Village, 33/1 Canulos, 50/1 Borsa´s Gold, Sea Cat, 66/1 Merry Moon ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ABRAHAM LINCOLN is best treated at the weights and can take advantage of the drop in class following his run in the Diadem Stakes won by his compatriot Haatef. Last month's win over this trip at The Curragh was a smart performance on his first outing since an early-season defeat in a maiden at the same venue, and he ran a bit better at Ascot than is implied by his finishing-position in ninth, since the race was dominated by those drawn high. In the small group that raced on the stands' side he was beaten only by Al Qasi, a Group 3 winner at The Curragh in August.

A drop in class - Aiden O'Brien on board and should be a straightforward victory for Jamiee Heffernan. I suppose the more comfortable approach here is via the each way market incase Abraham falters. Abraham should oblige tonight

435 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Al Khaleej, 11/2 Jalil, 7/1 Bomber Command, Samarinda, 10/1 Dichoh, Hazzard County, 14/1 Manchurian, The Snatcher, 20/1 Wavertree Warrior, 25/1 Killena Boy, 33/1 Basra, Troubadour .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: $9.7m yearling Jalil is interesting back in trip for this AW debut but his form as it stands isn't in the same parish as that of AL KHALEEJ. Ed Dunlop's colt has improved with every start, is better than the bare form of his last run in a competitive Ascot handicap and his strong travelling style is particularly well suited to racing on AW surfaces. [RY]

POSITIVES - price gap remains in the early market - Seb Sanders on board
Al Khaleej

Progressive sort and best effort in competitive Ascot handicap last time; strong traveller who has won only previous AW start and should be suited by this course; the one to beat.
NEGATIVES - handicap race - 76 day absence to overcome - 2 rivals at around the 5/1 marker cannot be discounted.
CONCLUSION
an obvious place only candidate for me here.


COMMENT - again there are no templated examples of the calibre of Dylan Thomas in the past so this must be borne in mind today.
A chance on Paul's Plain here today, although I will be cursing if he loses " why - he's a fav in an 18 runner novices handicap hurdle "!

EACH WAY
410 CARLISLE -
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Kasnani, 11/2 Final Bid, Sculastic, 6/1 Kristiansand, 7/1 Insurgent, 8/1 College City, Heavenly Chorus, 12/1 Carrietau, 14/1 Hardybuck, 33/1 Sir Night.
Insurgent each way
715 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Abraham Lincoln, 4/1 Nastrelli, 6/1 Mist And Stone, 10/1 Nanotech, 14/1 Poisiedon, Russian Empress, 20/1 Loughsider, Rural Retreat, Seal Colony, Upper Village, 33/1 Canulos, 50/1 Borsa´s Gold, Sea Cat, 66/1 Merry Moon,
NAstrelli is obvious each way material and could pounce should Abe not run to his expectation
815 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Sine Die, 5/1 Angel Dreamer, Chesapeake Bay, 13/2 Venelina, 8/1 San Jose City, 10/1 Casablanca Jewel, Herbert Crescent, Icemancometh, Maude Gonne, 12/1 Tiger Tee, 14/1 Avoca Blue, Dearg, Quetzalcoatl, 20/1 Manavic,
Sine Die each way - Oxx/Kinane combo heading the market at an each way price

11/10

Telgonus won for the each ways yesterday at a poor 3/1. The price gappers all failed, and were not templated examples. I thought they were worth a shot.
Again today, I'm not happy getting involved until the jumps season proper begins. There are some very tricky races at the moment
Kempton's night meeting comprises the usual class 5 and class 6 low prize money fare.
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tepee, 7/1 Harlem Shuffle, Morocchius, 8/1 Silk Hall, 10/1 Rowaad, Scuffle, 12/1 Jasoora, 14/1 Duty Doctor, Transfer, 16/1 Miss Phoebe, 25/1 Dual Faith, Marino Prince, 33/1 Where´s Susie, 50/1 Addwaitya .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TEPEE appears to be going the right way and can gain recompense for a luckless latest run here. Of the newcomers, Harlem Shuffle appeals most.[BDO]

A god price gap, but a horse who's only had the 2 runs again in maiden company in a class 6 on the all weather."appears" - is not really positive and I can't have this one at such a short price. There are 5 debutants in the field and 6 horses who have only had the one run so others are open to improvement
300 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Grenfell, 6/1 Junctiontwentyfour, 13/2 Nostringsattached, 7/1 Garston Star, 8/1 Leonardo´s Friend, 10/1 Ibberton, 12/1 English Jim, 20/1 Sintos, 33/1 A Sea Commander .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Junctiontwentyfour could be dangerous if settling better this time but the obvious one is GRENFELL (nap), who needs a stiffer test than what she got on her reappearance at Market Rasen.

POSITIVES - napped by Spotlight although there's no " will be very hard to beat" as there was with Dep purple yesterday (although the odds were very restrictive on that one)Price gap is solid in the early market 10/11 - - - 15/2 which is wholly positive. A string of seconds shows the horse is at the business end, which is important especailly over 3 miles.
NEGATIVES - Novices handicap chase perhaps not the ideal betting medium. The ground is good to soft and any mention of soft normally results in me leaving the meeting alone. The horse is also sporting blinkerswhich may suggest he needs a little coaxing.
CONCLUSION - by dint of the fact that there have been no market moves for any other horses in the race, this would seem to be a good bet for me, but I would not bet if the ground changed to soft or worse during the day.
410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rowdy Yeats, 6/1 Vibe, 7/1 Jupon Vert, 10/1 Golly, 12/1 Deep King, 20/1 Green Gamble, Master T, Silvo, 25/1 Macgyver, Sean Og, 50/1 River Mere .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rowdy Yeats is by the far best of these and still going forwards by all accounts, but there could be some value in taking him on under his welter burden if conditions remain on the easy side of good. Old boy JUPON VERT has 10l to find with the favourite on their last clash but is weighted to make a race of it.[AWJ]

POSITIVES - again the price gap remains in the early shows - 5/6 - - - - 7/1 is quite prominent for a heavily weighted horse in a handicap.
NEGATIVES - flopped in soft previously and this is good to soft at present ( remember the Racing Post put up this ground the night before so it may deteriorate with further rain).
A welter burden and a conditional jockey's handicap do not offer me any convincing evidence to back.
CONCLUSION - by far the best horse in the race but may be run out of it under 12 stone 5 and in a conditional jckey's event, I can't chance him here.

Only one real candidate today and that is NOT a templated bet in Grenfell. As I said, when "soft" is mentioned in any context regarding the ground it's best to leave the meeting alone but at 10/11, we are in with a shout.
220 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Royal Rationale, 9/4 Summer Of Love, 9/1 Pennyrock, 12/1 Flying Grey, 16/1 Avant Gardiste, 20/1 Foreign King, 33/1 King Of Magic, Swagger, 40/1 Fine Ruler, 50/1 Iced Tango .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around ROYAL RATIONALE, easily the pick of these on the Flat and likely to be extremely tough to beat if he can transfer most of that ability to this different discipline. If he doesn't, Summer Of Love is easily the likeliest one to take advantage

I just thought I'd include this example as the magic words are there but there's an "if". Summer of love is also too close to the selection. In what looks a 2 horse race the fav at 5/6 will win well "if" ....... so if you're chosing Royal Rationale here you're betting that the horse will transfer his ability to the jumps.
EACH WAY
a 3/1 winner yesterday
820 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Hucking Hill, 9/2 Napoleon Dynamite, 11/2 Dvinsky, Jacquart, 10/1 Back In The Red, Prince Of Delphi, 12/1 Abwaab, Cativo Cavallino, 14/1 Royal Challenge, 16/1 Majestic Cheer, 20/1 Bridge It Jo,
Currently 4/1, Hucking Hill looks a decent each way shout here
230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Hennessy, 11/4 Bali Bay, 11/2 Corker, 7/1 Cave Of The Giant, 12/1 Daring Racer, 14/1 Baker´s Girl, Glendara, Himba, 16/1 Rakaman, 50/1 Sarrococca, 66/1 Willow Hall, 100/1 Commanche Dawn.
Cave of the Giant here just before the 12/1's
410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rowdy Yeats, 6/1 Vibe, 7/1 Jupon Vert, 10/1 Golly, 12/1 Deep King, 20/1 Green Gamble, Master T, Silvo, 25/1 Macgyver, Sean Og, 50/1 River Mere.
4 each way priced horses before the perceived outsiders at 20/1. WIth good to soft and confditional jockeys, a chance on Golly -the most obvious candidates are Vibe and Jupon Vert

TWIN PROGRESSIVE CYCLES
220 Wincantion offers an opportunity here to back Royal Rationale and Summer of love in 2 different classes.

NOTE - with the ground being on the soft side of good, the IDEAL is to not get involved at all. The racing recently has been extremely tricky and can be borne out in the results

10\9

right tI was o single out the place only on Paddy Jack on a day where the weather decimated fields and made the day largely unbettable. Coppergirl was a non runner as was Shiul Aris,. AXIOM won. Mr Mischief unplaced.Glittering prize came 2nd. Laura's Best placed at 5/1. Twin cycles no bet with another non runner.
PRICE GAPPERS
It appears we're having what happened when the jumps season turned into the flat - betting no mans land!
240-Exeter - Opus Cafe - the hint of a price gap but the overall profile id not one of a very good price gapper
450- Exeter - Deep Purple tics all boxes but at 1\3 over the sticks he's unbackable, but like Axiom is another to back and lay in running
820 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Vintage, 6/1 Machinate, 8/1 Call Me Rosy, Dancing Duo, Emma Jean Lad, Hills Place, 12/1 Ganache, Torver, 14/1 Pearl Farm, 25/1 Grey Gurkha, 33/1 Fervent, The Slider, 50/1 Lordswood, Raise Again.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ganache is worst off with the pair in front here last week and Dancing Duo could well turn things round with Emma Jean Lad. Either way, they've all got their work cut out against VINTAGE if last Friday's Wolverhampton demolition wasn't a one-off.[GW]

This may interest but let's not get carried away - this is class 6 - Vintage demolished opposition last time and may be one of those handiap horses about to run up a sequence ( we're normally umming and ahhing about horses who run up a 2 or 3 timer in handicap company- is this the beginning of a small sequence?)
At 9/4, you're betting efffectively on the horse reproducing winning form under a penalty and you're also betting on the fact this may be the start of a mini winning streak.
A good price, but let's remember this is a class 6 handicap on a crap Kempton card. I will, however take the risk at the price
405 navan
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alessandro Volta, 9/2 Award Ceremony, 6/1 Bashkirov, 8/1 The Fist Of God, 10/1 Mikhail Fokine, 12/1 Liberty Love, Moiqen, Soca Warrior, 20/1 Art Sleuth, Cinn Mhara, Jokipur, 25/1 Grand Fella, Kingsdale Flyer, Magical Six, Mr Harrington, Warrior Chief, 33/1 Cheval Du Roi.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALLESANDRO VOLTA should score providing that he has gone the right way since finishing in mid-field behind Lisvale on his debut at The Curragh in June. That was a strong maiden, and one of those in front of him was Curtain Call who finished second to New Approach in the Futurity Stakes before losing his maiden status with a 4l win in the Beresford Stakes. Domestic Fund, runner-up in the Beresford, also contested that maiden, as did Houston Dynimo, a winner at Gowran last week. Aidan O'Brien has a strong hand here, since he is also represented by BASHKIROV third on his debut at Leopardstown in June. The winner Maryellen's Spirit has not appeared since then, but runner-up Curtain Call has certainly done his to boost the credibility of the form,Aiden O'Brien favs in maidens, who have had a run, are worth keeping the right side of. The value seems ,though,to be with Bashkirov for Ballydoyl as the each way candidate.
If Allseandro's price remains around 4\5 thn he's a bet for me
535 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sinntaran, 9/2 Hernando Cortes, Mont Izu, 8/1 El Diego, Perpetuum, 9/1 Sunny´n Smart, 12/1 Atacanta, Etu, The Frog Prince, 14/1 Kerdana, 16/1 Silica Shine, 20/1 Dont Tell Josie, Inside I´m Dancing, Lannleire, 25/1 Kingsdale Pacific, See Nuala, 33/1 Hyde Park Flight, Molly Wee, Soviet Queen.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SINNTARAN, a half-brother by Machiavellian to Sinndar, has been given plenty of time to mature since he was a beaten odds-on favourite for a maiden over an extended 7f at Tipperary in May. The extra distance should suit, and there is no reason to believe that he will fail to uphold form with PERPETUUM who was 4l behind him and gave his best subsequent performance when third to Blackwater Pete at Ballinrobe in July.
Oxx/Kinane must always be respected. Beaten at odds on last time caN BE VIEWED POSITIVELY OR NEGATIVELY - can't win at odds on - no ta! OR they'll get it right this time!
A 19 runner field is not the ideal but again id odds against, this looks a decentish bet. Obvious opportunity for place only betting
510 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Shela House, 6/1 Forroger, 7/1 Celtic Change, 10/1 Le Soleil, 12/1 Folio, Tommy Toogood, 14/1 Del Mar Sunset, Master Pegasus, Pagan Sword, Robustian, 20/1 Aegean Prince, Chantaco, Go Tech, 25/1 New Star, 33/1 First Mate, Shogun Prince.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The 3yo SHELA HOUSE (nap) looked one to follow when romping clear at Windsor last week and he can defy a 6lb penalty. Forroger, who needs to settle better, and Celtic Change, who is stepping up in trip, look his most interesting rivals.[AC]

Another potential multiple winner in a handicap. Shela House is now 6/4 with a noticeable price gap in the early market. Ryan Moore in the plate. Again you're betting, like the earlier example, on a reproduction of form and the chance of a mini sequence starting. The right jock's on board and a chance ,I suppose, can be taken if the price remains around 6/4

A word of caution with Nottingham today - this is the last race on a good to soft ground card - any deterioration in weather may change going to soft and then I will leave alone

PRICE GAPPERS COMMENT - again today we have generally 2 types - short prices in maidens for influential stables in Ireland who should improve and lose their maden tags, albeit in big fields, and 2 LIKELY improvers in handicaps -2 horses with potential to put together a string of wins. Because noe of these bets is clear cut, and they are not really templated price gappers, this should be reflected in the fact we are getting , largely, odds against.
If I were to chose just one, it would probably be Vintage at 9/4 - my decision largely swayed by the odds.

EACH WAY
250 EXETER - 2nd fav Telegonus is 3/1, not really an each way price, but the hope his he will place at least
350 EXETER - Thenford star at 7/2 is, again, not ideal each way price but he whould be competitive under Chocolate Thornton
405 NAVAN - BAshikirov each way - the apparent BAllydoyle second string
No twin cycle bet yesterday because one was a non runner - noe today in another unappetising card.
Beware any weather change and proceed with caution if ground conditions return to soft.

9/10

I wish I’d noticed Me Fein was a Barney Curley horse – I would have never put it up – they either win by half a mile or bomb out, and the latter happened yesterday. Me Fein’s last run was the big gamble that is synonymous with Barney Curley.. Baddam and Geordie land were both terrible.Elsewhere Chinwag came nowhere but Just Bond won at an inflated 8/1 which was very welcome after a few 2nd places recently.A shockingly bad day’s races yesterday – check out the number of “ shock” results.For the twin cycles, both selections finished first and second ,and both at over evens which was pleasing. I am getting some twin progressive cycle software made by a reader and will keep you informed.
PRICE GAPPERS
Today looks just as bad as yesterday, probably the transition to jumps and the end of the flat heralding races full of donkeys!
200 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Paddy Jack, 9/2 Atephobia, 11/2 Princess Rhianna, 13/2 Bourbon Balistic, 7/1 Swindon Town Flyer, 10/1 Smarterthanuthink, 14/1 Mr Funshine, 50/1 Captain Turbot, Magnushomestwo,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paddy Jack sets the standard here but the widest draw isn't ideal and he's taken on with PRINCESS RHIANNA, who may have found her latest run coming too quick after her promising debut and she is well worth another chance.
A 5 furlong maiden .Price gap 11/8 - - - 5/1. Wide draw. The price of the fav here, who has had plenty of chances ( which can be viewed positively –plenty of experience, or negatively – plenty of chances!) is too short for me. The only saving grace is the fact Seb Sanders is onboard, and after Jamie Spencer’s poor day yesterday, losing on 3 favs, one at ¼, we can hope that Seb will try his best on market leaders but that’s just not enough for me. An obvious place only opportunity.
340 Leic
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Coppergirl, 4/1 Cherri Fosfate, 5/1 Leprechaun´s Gold, 13/2 Go Dude, 8/1 Hester Brook, 14/1 Everyman, Hawk Gold, 20/1 Snake Hips, 33/1 Hard As Iron, Valeesha, 50/1 Tenterhooks, 66/1 Fashion Accessory.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHERRI FOSFATE improved with the longer trip last time and looks a solid enough proposition against the usual mixed bag of opponents. Go Dude should be competitive but he seems very delicate, withdrawn with vet's certificates three times in recent weeks, and couldn't be a strong fancy if turning out after having quite a hard race yesterda
Again,a good example of one we can dismiss by looking at Spotlight who doesn’t even mention the horse. I know with this that you have to have a degree of trust with the Spotlight journalist but to not even consider the shortie here must sound some alarm bells.This is a class 6 seller as well.
540 Leic
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Axiom, 4/1 Laura´s Best, 5/1 Cinnamon Hill, 12/1 Joyful Tears, Vigo Bridge, 33/1 Naledi, 50/1 Samahir, 66/1 Katie Coniston, 100/1 Arthur´s Edge,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AXIOM is well worth a try at this shorter trip and is the one to beat, with Cinnamon Hill preferred of the remainder, though the latter didn't behave herself very well before her debut at Lingfield.[EMW]
Currently 1 / 2 with next bet 7/2, this is another maiden race
Axiom
Raced only at 1m, used to be held up but made the running the last twice, solid form in defeat both times; disappointing he hasn´t been able to win so far but well worth the try at shorter and could be hard to peg back
The horse has had plenty of chances but, most recently has come 2nd twice. This is a positive as it shows he’s at the business end on a regular basis.Ready preference I think would be for the each way option on Laura’s Best . Axiom is too short for me in a maiden although he represents the most likely winner under Jimmy Fortune. A probable back before the off and lay in running trade for me under the assumption the horse is there at the race end
355 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Shuil Aris, 11/2 Charlie Yardbird, 7/1 Albanov, 8/1 Gripit N Tipit, Summer Soul, 10/1 Major Finnegan, Mill House Girl, 12/1 Jomacomi, 14/1 Brize Norton, Conquistadores, Lazio, 16/1 Call Me Max, Portraitist, 20/1 House Of Blues, 25/1 Ooh Cha Cha, Oscar What, Well Dr Lova, 33/1 Enchanted Breeze, Irish Mol, Rocca´s Boy,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHUIL ARIS has a very high rating for a maiden, and will take all the beating here if she can reproduce a performance in keeping with her official mark of 128. Winner of a valuable confined bumper first time out at the 2006 Punchestown Festival, she made the frame in maidens on her first two starts over hurdles last season, and then returned from a break to run two excellent races in the company of the season's best novice mares. She split multiple winners Grangeclare Lark and Chomba Womba at Fairyhouse in April, and though beaten more decisively by the excellent Grangeclare Lark at Punchestown she again had some useful types behind.
Again, we face the dilemma – why is the horse 6/4 in such a large field – really must be fancied to win in a 20 runner race. BUT would you back a 6/4 shot to beat 19 opponents over obstacles?
I will take a chance on this one today, largely due to the write up “ very high rating”, “ will take all the beating”

PRICE GAPPER COMMENT
A wholly unappetising selection today, largely in maiden races. BUT, interestingly, favourites stats tend to correct themselves the day after a day of outsiders winning (Monday) – we have this in our favour today. It’s just Shuil Aris for me today, although such a big field will put some off, at least we’ll be assured of an odds against price
EACH WAY
Glad Just Bond obliged yesterday at decent odds.
400 CATTERICK
MR Mischief each way – again Seb Sanders on board and at an each way price
150 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Hold The Gold, 9/4 Compton Ridge, 6/1 Glittering Prize, 10/1 Redarsene, Spiritonthemount, 20/1 Street Devil, 33/1 Desert Thistle, 50/1 Muharjam, 100/1 Jermajesty, My Flame, Romford Car Two, Ryan´s Rock.
Glittering prize each way looks the obvious candidate
540 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Axiom, 4/1 Laura´s Best, 5/1 Cinnamon Hill, 12/1 Joyful Tears, Vigo Bridge, 33/1 Naledi, 50/1 Samahir, 66/1 Katie Coniston, 100/1 Arthur´s Edge,

Laura’s Best each way
I think I’ll limit the each ways to 3 a day max – this way I will come up with what I think are the 3 best.
TWIN CYCLES
150 FOLKSTONE
one cycle to close today and Hold the Gold and Compton ridge look likely candidates at current prices of 10/11 ( as near to evens as you’re going to get) and 3/1 with the 10/11 shot going onto the open cycle – he has the best draw which should help our cause over. Jamie Spencer in the plate – surely he won’t cock this one up like he did yesterday

8/10

I thought Arsenal had covered the Asians within the first 10 minutes but then they capitulated – I wish the Asians for this match were in running .Chelsea garnered a typical 1-0 victory covering the asian.

Choclolate Thornton booted Mister Right home in a tight finish.
Kelso was abandoned. Rio de la Plata won convincingly. Authorized was nowhere to be seen in the Arc- a disappointment for all. I thought Conference Call had given us a good winner at 5/1 but the horse was swamped at the line

We face another Monday with limited opportunities and poor racing

440 PONTEFRACT

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Me Fein, 7/1 Dance Sauvage, 10/1 Mister Fizzbomb, Star Of Angels, 12/1 Fantasy Ride, Hermanita, 14/1 Compton Dragon, Fenners, Mabel, 16/1 El Alamein, Intavac Boy, Paparaazi, 20/1 Dreams Jewel, Hugs Destiny, Monarch Pass, Young Scotton, 100/1 Vehari.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves round ME FEIN who was value for considerably more than his winning margin in a Lingfield classified on his return upped to this trip in August and could be a cut above this opposition as well. Another 3yo Hermanita looks most interesting of the remainder, many of whom are thoroughly exposed, not in the best of form or hard to win with.[AC]

POSITIVES – “could be a cup above this opposition”.Jamie Spencer on board and he’s still looking for winners.Early prices – 7/4 - - - 7/1 looks significant

NEGATIVES – class 6 low grade affair with 17 runners.

CONCLUSION – I remember Ma Fein before and backed him last time when he won most convincingly. We will be getting odds against. The hope is that Spencer is hungry for a win and can influence proceedings positively. I only hope he doesn’t employ usual hold up tactics in such a big field.

Just the one today –there are some others but they just don’t quite meet the prfile I’m looking for.

EACH WAY

340 PONTE

BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Geordieland, 3/1 Baddam, 25/1 Love Brothers, 66/1 How´s Business, 100/1 Easement, Victory Quest, 200/1 True.

Baddam quite obviously an each way alternative here.

410 PONTE

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Lazy Darren, 7/2 Chin Wag, 7/1 Oscarshall, 8/1 Snow Dancer, 10/1 Demolition, Proper, 12/1 Grethel, Shotley Mac, 100/1 Feeling Peckish, Mister Castlefield.

Chin Wag here

350 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Just Bond, Officer, 6/1 Habshan, 7/1 Dragon Slayer, 8/1 Apex, Daaweitza, New World Order, 10/1 Full Victory, 12/1 Lord Theo, 50/1 Fan Club.

Just Bond each way

TWIN CYCLES

Went south yesterday in the arc .520 Wolves – we currently have 2 6/4 shots who fit nicely with twin progressive cycles. The price gap to the next horse at 7/1 is significant. Although I would prefer these horses to make up 100% of the book (6/4 is 40% so they only make up 80%) , we have high hopes of capturing the winner.

A very quiet day today with a poor selection of races

7/10

It took Man Utd, a while, as I thought, to break Wigan down, and the dutch on Man Utd/Man Utd and Draw/Man Utd came in well for a 24% gain. I chickened out of the dutch which was far more profitable than backing in the match odds market.
Dan Buoy actually became 2/1 favourite with Armenian Boy at 5/4 – this is quite obviously not a price gap but the price gapper experiment is not based on following the live market. If you are in a position to do so of course, common sense tells you that the price gap has disappeared. That said, Armenian Boy came 2nd “ ideally a place only candidate”

No Greater Love came 4th in a 16 runner handicap – a disappointment.
Armana came 2nd which was a frustration as he came in with a great run
Coastal Path was indeed the banker of the meeting but at 2/5 was only really a back and lay off in running and he won with ease.
Aromatherapy another one time out candidate in a maiden who disappoints ( where have I heard that before!) Socceroo came nowhere as I thought.Boz won well at 10/11 – if you ever needed a hint ,try Jamie Spencer taking a flight from Longchamp and sticking round til 920 for a ride ,then returning to Longchamp tomorrow.
Hurlers Cross placed, and Dan Buoy placed but I hope you realised 5/4 is not really an each way bet. , Nawamees unplaced, as was Mountain Cat, and All my loving, Pride of Nation unplaced, and Takthaar 2nd at 5/1.

Far too many each way selections in a busy card need to be curbed on Saturday’s I think

PRICE GAPPERS
210 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mister Right, 7/2 Phoenix Eye, 11/2 Meadow Hawk, 6/1 Orange Street, 11/1 Cool Roxy, 14/1 Explosive Fox.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In-form MISTER RIGHT (nap), who was sixth in the Ascot Stakes last year, is a likely improver now that he steps up in distance over hurdles and is the one to be on.[DH]

Spotlight also says – “seems sure to take the beating”
POSITIVES – Chocolate Thornton in the place – a class act. We have a 6 runner field with 2 horses at double figure odds.
NEGATIVES – a handicap hurdle and RPR ratings are very closely matched.
CONCLUSION – what I should have done yesterday was compare the selections against the templates I have for the ideal price gappers. If looking at the above example against a templated example, then Mister Right falls short. But with the small field and Thornton for me, I think he is a good bet at odds against
325 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ethan´s Star, 6/1 Humourous, Souffleur, 7/1 Roman Army, 8/1 Sybellius D´Artaix, 10/1 The Saltire Tiger, 12/1 Craiglands, 14/1 Mr Woods, 20/1 Soubriquet, 25/1 Cutting Chrystal, Jupsala, 33/1 I´m On Fire, Lusabawn, 50/1 Familiar Affair, 100/1 More Shennanigans.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Just a run-of-the-mill novice event and ex-Irish ETHAN'S STAR can make a successful start for new connections if sufficiently straight after his summer break.[AWJ]
161 day absence to overcome and a big field – I’ll strike through this one.
530 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Abstinence, 6/1 Destiny Hill, 8/1 Room At The Top, 10/1 Alfloramoor, 14/1 Wizards Dust, 16/1 Bazil Point, My Bobby, 25/1 Miss Toozy Betsy, 40/1 Don Frederiko, Shoot The Moon, Vie A Deux, Waterski, 100/1 Flagmount King,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Destiny Hill showed a bit of promise ten days ago but nothing like so much as ABSTINENCE at Wetherby. The Wylies have since bought the 4yo out of Peter Niven's stable and he looked a fine prospect that day in April.[RA]
A bumper and, by default, with so many debutants, it is folly to bet without the live market as reference.
225 LONGCHAMP
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RIO DE LA PLATA sets a very high standard on his latest excellent second in a stronger-looking Group 1 for the National Stakes at the Curragh and only in the event of very soft ground come post time would confidence be diminished. Some give at least hopefully won't be a problem - plenty of his sire's progeny cope well with softish ground. Young Pretender is next best. [MCu]
Price gap 8/11 - - - 5/1. Rio de la plata looks solid in this Group 1 event and I always have a degree of confidence the higher up the pecking order we go.
340 LONGCHAMP
Authorized currently 11/8 - - - 4/1 faces an obvious chance here under Frankie. The price gap is not as big as an ideal price gapper would be. Soldier of Fortune under the excellent Jonny Murtagh looks to be the main rival. Personally I cannot discount Authorized from the place market - as far as a win bet is concerned, well being a Sunday we can look and reference the market. Aiden O’Brien has 4 runners with Dylan Thomas the likely threat along with Soldier of Fortune and the 2 others perhaps offering tactical support.
For me Authorized at odds against is a cracking bet.

PRICE GAPPERS COMMENTS – The 2 selections at Longchamp are on my shortlist tomorrow , Rio de la Plata and Authorizd are the selections by dint of the fact they are in high class races and they are high class animals who have NO obstacles or absences to overcome

EACH WAY
Too many selections yesterday.
350 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sam Lord, 15/8 Inchlaggan, 5/1 Tilly Shilling, 12/1 Motarjm, 16/1 Fizzy Bella, Pagan Rules, 33/1 Converti, Doctor Ned, Fine Ruler, 40/1 Dream On Dreamers, 50/1 Baarrij, Road To Recovery, Storm Mission, 66/1 Diverse Forecast, Ranavalona, 100/1 Apolina, Star In Our Eyes, 200/1 Cocobean.
Tilly Shilling is the obvious seach way bet
150 LONGCHAMP – Conference Call each way
245 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 King Of Rome, 3/1 Song In My Heart, 4/1 Tintreach, 6/1 Dane Wells, 10/1 Countess Zoe, 20/1 Charleville, Liberty Love, Separate Ways, 25/1 Baronsburg, Bolt Up, Celtic Ruler, Fair Dues, Headford Lady, Inishfree Lady, Monkhair, Sweet Toffee.
5 horses before 20/1 – Tintrach each way
TWIN CYCLES
I’ll take a chance today on Soldier of Fortune and Authorized for my twin progressive cycle bets – the hope is that these 2 represent the likeliest winners

FOOTBALL
Quiet day yesterday and we return with Super Sunday.Arsenal at 1.23 are a bit short.

Arsenal -1.5&-2.0
If Arsenal win by 3 or more £98
If Arsenal win by 2 £49
If Arsenal do not win by 2 or more -£100


Following on from Man Utd’s result yesterday I expect a 2 goal or better victory from Arsenal
Celtic away from home are priced to beat Gretna by 2+ goals and giving Gretna a 1.5 goal start may be a good move. Rangers yesterday suffered from a eurpoean hangover but they were playing Hibs who are a lot stronger than Gretna – we need to note the Celtic line up prior to this fixture to determine the likelihood of 2+ win for the Bhoys and any of the first team being rested after the euphoria mid week.
Chelsea interest me today, provided the team selection leaves out Sunday League Shevchenko (my Guernsey team have a spare place but he’s got my boots to fill and will have to pay £3 towards the ref but will get a free pint afterwards)
Provided the team includes Shaun Wright Phillips, Drogba, Carvalho and Sheva is left out, Chelsea look good for a tight victory today

Chelsea -0.5&-1.0
If Chelsea win by 2 or more £94
If Chelsea win by 1 £47
If Chelsea do not win -£100

6/10

PRICE GAPPERS - I was right to favour the place only bet on Holiday Cocktail who came 2nd at 11/10. Somethimes with these price gapers, you just know they’re going to be involved in the finish but you’re a little retiscent about whether they will actually win the race, and Holiday Cocktail was a case in point. Jamie “ hold up horses” Spencer missed the kick on Sir Gerry which bleew that one’s chances. SP of 2/1 at the off indicated the horse was perhaps not as confident a choice as the betting forecaster had predicted. That’s racing alas – human error plays a part. The lack of a positive write up from Spotlight was evident with Sir Gerry yestersy – remember we’re looking for “ will be hard to beat “etc .

EACH WAYS - Admiral Barry unplaced, War and Peace came 3rd at 4/1 for each way backers, Wassily Kandinsky unplaced, Princely Hero unplaced, Frankie Figg won albeit at 2/1, and Augustine 3rd at 6/1. Interesting yesterday that I threw in personal selections in War and Peace and Wassily Kandinsky and Princely Hero rather than looking for the betting forecast to show possible good each way selections and all of these went south! I’ll stick to the betting forecast as my each way indicator rather than personal fancies.

TWIN CYCLES – Fireside and Slam were 1st and 2nd which is what you’d want to see with Twin progressive cycle bets. This leaves one betting cycle open and one closed.

TODAY
PRICE GAPPERS
Another busy day today so I will try to get quality over quantity. These Saturday meetings can be difficult to fathom. Some weekends all price gapers will march home with ease, other weekends we get a stream of 2nd places . High quality racing both today and tomorrow so I hope I can select a good few
325 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Armenian Boy, 5/1 Dan Buoy, 7/1 Particle, 12/1 Lynnie´s Vic, 14/1 Madam Cliche, Minaad, 16/1 Irish Toast, Orphina, 20/1 Folie A Deux, 33/1 Hathaal, 40/1 War Feather.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dan Buoy has questions to answer after last week's poor effort and this looks a good opportunity for ARMENIAN BOY to retain his unbeaten record over hurdles.[SR]
POSITIVES – a good price gap here with a further price gap to Lynnie’s Vic.
Armenian Boy
Four time winner on the Flat in France and made a successful start to his hurdles career at Stratford most recently (2m6f, good to firm), where he only beat a perenial loser but the pair pulled a long way clear; promises to improve and looks the one to beat.
Comes from the powerful Pipe yard with Tom Scudamore in the plate, these fFrench imports must be respected.
NEGATIVES – a novices hurdle so they still have the L plates on. Dan Buoy clipped into 4/1 early show with Armenian Boy at 6/5. Aremian Boy has only had the one run over hurdles
CONCLUSION – with so many horses priced as outsiders ( 7 are 14/1 or greater from 11) this can suggest the race will be concerning just the 4 at the head of the market. Dan Buoy looks very obviously an each way bet, and I will take a chance on Armenian Boy here to maintain his 100% record over the hurdles ( albeit only the 1 run). Ideal as a place only candidate, if he remains odds against, he’s worth chancing.I will do a full synopsis on the day’s selections after I have gone through the day’s cards and come up with a short list
510 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 No Greater Love, 7/1 Aristi, Forest Emerald, 9/1 The Iron Giant, 10/1 Pauls Plain, Schemer Fagan, 12/1 Fox ´N´ Goose, 16/1 Queen Excalibur, She´s Humble, 20/1 Flower Haven, 25/1 Cambo, Lady Korrianda, Ray Mond, Saucy Night, Silver Island, Trackattack, 33/1 My Big Sister, Participation.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from NO GREATER LOVE (nap) who did it with the minimum of fuss against similar company at Sedgefield on Tuesday. Fox 'N' Goose and Pauls Plain could be worth checking in the market. [DHi]

Not your classic price gapper, but my eyes were drawn to the “it’s hard to get away from” in the Spotlight Verdict.
Now priced 6/4 early doors with next best 8/1, the early market is indicating confidence behind No Greater Love
NEGATIVES – 7lb rise for last victory – top weight in an 18 runner handicap.
CONCLUSION – looks a good win only candidate here for me, although there is some concern regarding the number of runners in this handicap field. At 6/4 though and with the confidence of Spotlight Verdict behind him, I’ll back him for the win ( pays 4 for the place and the odds may be reasonable)
235 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Amarna, 5/1 Mountain Cat, 10/1 Cool Box, Jaleela, 14/1 Cesc, Kay Gee Be, World´s Heroine, 25/1 Spriggan, Thunderousapplause, 33/1 Fantasy Parkes, Rudry Dragon, Spirit Of The Mist, Sunoverregun,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AMARNA, proven over C&D and unbeaten since running green on his racecourse debut, will be very difficult to beat. Likely pacesetter Mountain Cat could be the one for the forecast.[AM]

POSITIVES – currently 11/10 - - - 4/1. Contains the words “ will be very difficult to beat” – the ideal wording I like to see. Godolphin horse – Martin Dwyer in the plate – I guess the big boys Frankie and Kerrin McEvoy are in France.
NEGATIVES - a multiple winner in a handicap and we saw the other day – it’s about making the right decision whether the winning sequence will end today or whether we can hold out for one more race .
CONCLUSION – the betting forecast and early price market indicate this is a 2 horse race between Amarna and Mountain Cat, both multiple winners. I am swayed by the Spotlight Verdict in favour of Armana and will chance a win only bet. So far this is the one selection which instils confidence in me ( cue 2nd place !)
115 LONGCHAMP
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lightly raced COASTAL PATH looks in a class of his own here and must rate as one of the bankers of the weekend after completing a hat-trick over C&D a month ago with a 4l Group 3 success. He toyed with the opposition that day, among them three of today's rivals in Royal And Regal, 5l behind in third, with Gat and Noble Prince even further behind. With an average winning margin of 4l, he is still very much on the upgrade. Irish challenger Mores Wells won his second Group 3 event at Leopardstown in August and was not totally disgraced when 5l third to Yeats in the Irish St. Leger. He looks the closest thing to a danger
Now I know nothing about these horses and am going by Spotlight here and Coastal Path looks the one to be on “ in a class of his own here and must rate as one of the bankers of the weekend” – that’ll do for me – remember this is a system where we don’t do any form analysis whatsoever!
225 REDCAR

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Aromatherapy, 5/1 Debonnaire, 11/2 Tathkaar, 7/1 Coachhouse Lady, 16/1 Gingham, 20/1 Super Starlet, 25/1 Reel Cool, Strictly Elsie, 50/1 Lady In Chief,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a fairly useful maiden for the track, but AROMATHERAPY shaped well at Newmarket and should be hard to beat with that run under her debut. It would be no surprise to see significant progress from Debonnaire over this extra furlong, whilst Tathkaar is another who would be in the thick of things if going the right way from her debut.[
POSITIVES – price gap early prices 4/6 - - - 11/2 augurs well. Again we have those Spotlight trigger words “ should be hard to beat” – would prefer “will” be hard to beat.
NEGATIVES – a maiden race with 4 debutants and 4 once raced horses (including Aromatherapy) open to improvement.Another maiden favourite installed as such based on one single run
CONCLUSION – will be down in the pecking order of my price gapers on a busy Saturday based on the fact this is a maiden race with some unknowns and a favourite (albeit Henry Cecil!) priced restrictively based upon one run. If we look at the betting forecast, and trust it as an accurate reflection of horses’ chances, then there are 4 horses before the 16/1 quoted horse indicating these 4 ,all things being equal, should fight out the finish. This gives Aromatherapy effectively 3 rivals ,making the horse a great place only candidate at crap odds though.
700 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Socceroo, 9/2 Concealment, 11/2 Weet By Far, 6/1 Gunner Fly, 9/1 Fantasy Fighter, 12/1 Stoneacre Baby, 16/1 Howards Hope, Martingrange Boy, 25/1 Erin Thomas, 33/1 General Ting.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The effort posted by Socceroo on her debut in June is probably the best form on offer, but she has a lengthy absence to overcome and it might be worth taking her on with CONCEALMENT, who was not beaten far on her debut over C&D and should improve with that run under her belt.[SR]
A good example of one to avoid I would suggest – long absence – maiden race – 2 debutants – 4 once raced horses – may win but there are better opportunities elsewhere.
920 WOLVES
The meeting at Wolves compromises mostly class 5 and class 6 horses so we shouldn’t really get carried away
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Boz, 7/2 Heights Of Golan, 9/2 Potentiale, 8/1 Princely Ted, 10/1 Thorny Mandate, 11/1 Global Traffic, 16/1 Desert Leader.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOZ (nap) has looked very progressive winning his last two starts on sand and can defy the latest attempt by the handicapper to anchor him. Potentiale and Heights Of Golan look the most dangerous opponents.
The hint of a price gap is there, Boz is napped by Spotlight and has won his last 2 in handicap company – we know what happens to these !
I can’t ignore the price gap in the early price market ( and bear in mind this race goes off at 920 so there will be changes) – 8/11 - - - - 6/1 in a 7 runner field really does suggest a huge run froom Boz is expected in this class 5 event.What might swing this for me is seeing Jamie Spencer ,after a full book of rides elsewhere, hanging on grimly til 920 at Wolves in the hope he can bag another winner and wrestle the Flat jockeys championship from Seb Sanders.


PRICE GAPPERS COMMENT – a busy Saturday and we can’t really expect all of the above to come in ( although stranger things have happened) Amarna is probably the one I would be most confident about, and even then, there are reservations because he’s a multiple handicap winner and their winning sequences always end ( but when?)

EACH WAY
250 FONTWELL
Hurlers Cross at 3/1 early doors, looks ok for an each way pop.
325 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Armenian Boy, 5/1 Dan Buoy, 7/1 Particle, 12/1 Lynnie´s Vic, 14/1 Madam Cliche, Minaad, 16/1 Irish Toast, Orphina, 20/1 Folie A Deux, 33/1 Hathaal, 40/1 War Feather.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dan Buoy has questions to answer after last week's poor effort and this looks a good opportunity for ARMENIAN BOY to retain his unbeaten record over hurdles.[SR]
I hinted at this earlier – Dan buoy each way looks very obvious
435 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Presentandcorrect, 9/2 Love Angel, 5/1 Masjoor, Nawamees, 7/1 Play Master, 12/1 Grecian Groom, Take A Mile, 16/1 Marfinca, 20/1 Espoir Du Bocage.
In a 9 runner field, 4 are 12/1 or greater, so of those remaining, Nawanees each way for me
235 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Amarna, 5/1 Mountain Cat, 10/1 Cool Box, Jaleela, 14/1 Cesc, Kay Gee Be, World´s Heroine, 25/1 Spriggan, Thunderousapplause, 33/1 Fantasy Parkes, Rudry Dragon, Spirit Of The Mist, Sunoverregun,
Mountain Cat looks an obvious candidate
255 LONGCHAMPS
All my loving is 7/2 fav and should place here
330 LONGCHAMP
3 horses below 11/1 and I will look to Pride of Nation each way under Jamie Spencer ( remember Boz in the price gapers – well would Jamie bother going from France to Wolves for a ride if he thought it was worthless?)
225 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Aromatherapy, 5/1 Debonnaire, 11/2 Tathkaar, 7/1 Coachhouse Lady, 16/1 Gingham, 20/1 Super Starlet, 25/1 Reel Cool, Strictly Elsie, 50/1 Lady In Chief,
4 horses before 16/1 here and I’ll chance Tathkaar

I’ll leave Wolves alone each way as it’s all class 5 and 6

TWIN CYCLES
On a busy Saturday I’ll leave this alone today

FOOTBALL
No real games of interest today from an asian perspective – Man Utd should do the job over Wigan,particularly in the absence of the excellent Heskey and possible doubts over Antoine Sibiersky – everyone’s looking at a tonking today . Wigan haven’t lost by 2 this season, and of the big 4 they have only met Liverpool – were they stuttering? It took Liverpool 75 minutes to break Wigan down and in previous meetings with Man Utd, generally the Red Devils’ goals have tended to come in the 2nd half and this may be the case today. I think I’ve found a decent dutching bet in the half time/full time market. You can back Man Utd/Man Utd and Draw Man Utd, odds are 1.69 and 4.8 Around a £73 stake on Man Utd /Man Utd and a £25 stake on Draw /Man Utd returns around 24%.

5/10

A poor selection yesterday in the Spuds, they really had nothing to play for and that was very evident in the attitude they took into the match. They should have easily covered the 1 goal handicap but ended drawing
PRICE GAPPERS – my intuition was right regarding Ned Ludd –each way winners at big prices. Pivotal Answer could only manage a 2nd place. Dustoori fought out the finish and got infront and won . I was pleasantly surprised by Shabiba and the impressive nature of the victory. I read Ainama’s race right yesterday. Better left alone as this was a race too much for a multiple winner in a handicap.

EACH WAY
Moheeb won ,albeit at 9/4, hardly an each way backer’s price, but hey, if he comes 1st who cares Lady Dedlock was a dud price mover unlike Classic Legend yesterday. Elizabeth Swann ran very well and was only just pipped to the winner’s spot, gaining a good 2nd at 4/1

PRICE GAPPERS
450 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Holiday Cocktail, 4/1 Issaquah, 5/1 Depraux, 6/1 Augustine, 10/1 Aliba, 14/1 Factor Fifteen, 25/1 Breaking Shadow, Dispol Peto, 33/1 Toshi, 50/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, Scuzme, 100/1 Genoa Star.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Issaquah is a threat getting the weight but HOLIDAY COCKTAIL (nap) is bang in form and seemingly progressive as a hurdler given the manner in which he justified market confidence at Uttoxeter.[AWJ]
Price gapper jumpers now so it would be interesting to see the strike rate of these.
POSITIVES – decent enough price gap although far from the ideal shown in the templated examples such as Captain Gerrard. The nap of the meeting for Spotlight. Progressive profile judging by the form 970-21.
Holiday Cocktail
Off only 89 in winning a Uttoxeter handicap last month but did it most decisively that day having travelled best throughout and now looking progressive; this far from being a penalty kick with his extra burden but will take some beating.
NEGATIVES – top weighted in a novice hurdle event. As this is Hexham I would be hesitant about getting involved if any rain comes. There is no early morning prices for me to look at this morning.
CONCLUSION – 6 horses before 25/1 indicate the race should revolve around these.
Looks a better place only candidate given the number of outsiders in the field than a straight on the nose winners.
315 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sir Gerry, 6/1 Tajdeef, 7/1 Achilles Of Troy, Strike The Deal, 8/1 Dream Eater, 9/1 Dark Angel, 14/1 Red Alert Day, Rock Of Rochelle, 50/1 Proud Linus, 250/1 All In The Red.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was more style than substance to Sir Gerry's Gimcrack win and, although unquestionably highly talented, he does not look great value. DREAM EATER is a feasible each-way option given that he is entitled to be rated a bit better than his Doncaster win up the apparently slower far side of the course.[FC]
POSITIVES – extremely good price gap upheld in the early market. Jamie Spencer on board ,and I’ve said it before if we look at him on a favourite in current circumstances ( ie showdown with Seb Sanders) and I expect Jamie NOT to be missing these opportunties)
NEGATIVES
Spotlight has not selected him as the first choice. Form does have cracks in it
CONCLUSION – this is a group 1 race, so why the price gap. I always make note of these price gaps in class fields because money talks, and ,especially if its Group 1 level. With that in mind, Sir Gerry I will back for the win, but in the back of my mind there really is no positives from Spotlight
EACH WAY
845 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 New Zealand, 3/1 Sligo, 9/2 Admiral Barry, 5/1 King Of Queens, 10/1 Cheeky Try, 12/1 Chevie, Exploration, Roman Heat, 20/1 Ladbrokes Lad, 25/1 Donnabhain, One Job.
Admiral Barry each way here. I am mindful of Aiden O’Brien’s New Zealand
215 GOWRAN PARK
War and Peace each way. Aiden O’Brien and Fallon token selection!
430 GOWRAN PARK
Wassily Kandinsky each way again for Aiden O’Brien ,installed as favourite at each way odds is a good bet
535 GOWRAN PARK
Princely Hero each way for the Weld/Smullen combination.
A very good quality field at Gowran today with the big bys out and some good horses.
340 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Double Deputy, Matt The Thrasher, 4/1 Frankie Figg, 10/1 Rifleman, 14/1 King Of Slane, Rectory, Willie The Fish, 33/1 Cassius Dio, The Event Master, 50/1 Daniel´s Dream, 100/1 Panama Mermaid.
Frankie Figg each way
450 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Holiday Cocktail, 4/1 Issaquah, 5/1 Depraux, 6/1 Augustine, 10/1 Aliba, 14/1 Factor Fifteen, 25/1 Breaking Shadow, Dispol Peto, 33/1 Toshi, 50/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, Scuzme, 100/1 Genoa Star.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Issaquah is a threat getting the weight but HOLIDAY COCKTAIL (nap) is bang in form and seemingly progressive as a hurdler given the manner in which he justified market confidence at Uttoxeter.[AWJ]
4 before 10/1 indicate these may be good place only options, so Augustine each way for me
135 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 River Proud, 100/30 Declaration Of War, 4/1 Iguazu Falls, 7/1 Tasdeer, 12/1 Fool´s Wildcat, 14/1 Yankadi, 20/1 Bellomi, 25/1 Bazergan, 33/1 Paveroc,
Declaration of War each way looks to have a great chance of placing at least

I am a bit wary that there are perhaps too many each way selections today but will hold fast and perhaps with the number of selections in mind retire after an early winner
TWIN CYCLES
105 NEWMARKET
Yes I’ve got a bang on the head. I will chance Fireside and Slam for this twin cycle although it is a big field maiden race. . I expect the race to revolve around these 2 horses with the price gap to the 3rd favourite as a good confirmer.

4/10

Well done to Chelski yesterday obliging for the Asians bet .
Price gappers – Kiwi Bay won yesterday, Hamish McGonagal could only manage 2nd but put up a strong run in what I did describe as an unsuitable (ideally) race, the Forsyte Saga was very poor indeed. Again I said in an ideal world Forsyte Saga would be a no bet – I should have stuck to my original synopsis there BUT did the eagle eyed amongst you notice my comment on Classic Legend. Obviously there was some early money for the horse, but this was masked later on as he shot out to 22/1 BUT STILL WON!. I’m glad I left Doctor frematnle alone at 1/3 – 2nd place was all he could manage and the place only bet, albeit at hugely restrictive odds, came in.
Each ways – Dart was unplaced and Toboggan Lady a creditable 2nd
Redford won for the twin cycles in impressive style
PRICE GAPPERS
255 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ned Ludd, 13/2 Hesivorthedriver, 15/2 Burntoakboy, 17/2 Altenburg, Whenever, 10/1 Pugnacious Lady, 11/1 Bukit Tinggi, 12/1 Sister Agnes, 16/1 Crimson Monarch, 20/1 Elusory, Lady Dedlock, Tweed River, 25/1 Optimistic Alfie, 33/1 Come Bye.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NED LUDD sets a decent enough standard on his spring form in more competitive races than this and though his readiness for this obviously has to be taken on trust, has the most persuasive claims in a race in which credible contenders are rather thin on the ground.
POSITIVES – 11/8 - - - 11/2 early morning prices.
NEGATIVES – this is a maiden race with a favourite coming back from a 102 day lay off This is a soft ground race and a class 5 to boot.
I must mention Lady Dedlock who is 14/1 in the early market and 20/1 in the betting forecast which indicates, perhaps, a degree of backing for the horse – can we expect a classic legend today? Please!
CONCLUSION - personal preference here is for a place only bet on Ned Ludd rather than backing as a win only. My intuition hints that this race may be better tackled from an each way angle ,or indeed left alone altogether.
405 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pivotal Answer, 7/2 Desert D´Argent, 15/2 Candle, 8/1 Generous Jem, Opal Haze, 9/1 Lisathedaddy, 14/1 Intiquilla, 16/1 Oh Glory Be.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The key horse is PIVOTAL ANSWER, who is 8lb well-in after the handicapper has taken corrective measures following a close second in a Kempton AW handicap. She was 8l clear of some fair rivals then and, if running as well on this different surface, will be extremely hard to beat. Encouragingly, her dead-heat win in an easy-ground Bath maiden on her third start was a better effort than a previous AW second, raising strong hopes that she can prove just as good on grass. Desert d'Argent and Candle are the pick of the opposition. [MCu]
Early morning prices of 5/4 - 7/2 . I am taken by the phrase from above “ if running well on this different surface, will be extremely hard to beat”
You already know what I look for with the Spotlight – remember? – “ hard to beat / difficult to oppose/a tough nut to crack” or, indeed, “will be extremely hard to beat”
There is a qualifier here though and that concerns the horses ability to handle the new surface, so essentially we are betting ,if we back Pivotal answer , on her ability to transfer form to this new surface. If that can be assured ,then this makes Pivotal Answer a cracking bet. I think, looking at the profile of the race, that I will take that chance as we seem only to have Desert Argent as the main rival.
I must sound a note of caution regarding soft ground. Usually I would dismiss the meeting if soft or heavy ground as I don’t want the hassle of exhaustive form analysis.

440 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Dustoori, 11/2 Give Me A Break, 8/1 Rock Anthem, 9/1 Hibiki, Unreachable Star, 11/1 Gib, Rustic Gold, 20/1 Seleet, 25/1 Beau Sancy.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUSTOORI (nap) stands out on his latest very good second off this mark in a slightly stronger race than this at Hamilton and should be hard to beat. This colt had won at a similar trip to today's on his debut the time before and the only doubt of any consequence is today's forecast soft ground. As Dustoori was fine with plenty of give at Hamilton, hopes must be high that he can cope with this likely softer surface. Give Me A Break may be next best. [MCu]
Early prices 4/5 - - - 7/2 don’t quite mirror the betting forecast’s price gap. Encouraging to see Spotlight make this horse the bet of the meeting for him. “stands out” “ should be hard to beat” – I would prefer a “will” be hard to beat. Again soft ground at a meeting is not an ideal if we are looking for rock solid bets – we are always “hoping” the horse will handle the ground.
A godolphin entrant ,the big boys aren’t here to ride as they are at Newmarket. I will give Dustoori the nod here although I wouldn’t back at odds lower than the current 4/5 which is as near as damn it to evens
200 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Shabiba, 9/2 Spinning Lucy, 11/2 Elizabeth Swann, 12/1 Just Like A Woman, Meydan Princess, 14/1 Gaabal, Jennie Jerome, 20/1 Garland, Toasted Special, 25/1 Coloratura, Provence, Storyland, 33/1 Arcetri, Jamaali, 100/1 Ile Royale,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Spinning Lucy was not far behind some very useful sorts at the Curragh after a layoff and may appreciate the drop back in distance, but she may meet her match in SHABIBA who ran a race full of promise against colts on her debut and looks to have a good opportunity to go one better.[FC]
Once raced filly installed as market leader in a hot looking maiden. Big field and a number of newcomers from powerful yards mean I won’t be backing despite the obvious chances
530 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ainama, 4/1 Kahara, 5/1 Irish Quest, 8/1 Ancient Culture, 10/1 Grand Heights, 12/1 Duty Free, 16/1 Fretwork, 20/1 Horseford Hill, Hot Diamond, Starry Messenger, 25/1 Natural Action, Starparty, 33/1 Cavalry Twill,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This opposition should be much more demanding for AINAMA (nap) but he won with huge ease last Saturday and, with the longer trip of no concern, he has to get the vote. In more normal circumstances, Irish Quest and Kahara would arrive with high hopes
Yes, another multiple handicap winner installed as favourite – and he’s on a 5 timer today in stronger company. As I’ve said before with these, the winning sequence is nearer to ending with each consecutive rise in the weights and the key is to decipher when – will it be today or next race because it will come.
SPOTLIGHT’S COMMENT
Ainama
Has won all four of his handicaps, shaping as if he appreciates every yard and returning from two-month absence to win with huge ease at Chester (1m5f, the furthest he´s gone) last Saturday; this race looks far stronger but he is thrown in under 6lb penalty and will be very hard to beat if in same form after the five-day break.
Again, because of the nature of the selection this is very much a sit on the fence race for me. I will be kicking myself if he wins again and I didn’t back him, but will be patting myself on the back if he loses and I left him alone – a no bet for me
PRICE GAPPERS COMMENT
It’s all about the quality of your decision making when determining whether to leave out or include in..Each selection today has a niggle – an absence to overcome – the ability to handle a soft surface – a multiple handicap winner whose winning sequence will end, but will it be in this race?
It looks like just Dustoori for me today, but I will be intrigued to find out, since the blog began, the strike rate of ALL selections whether personal final selections of mine or not.
EACH WAY
First off, I’ll be leaving Kempton well alone – have you seen the card – class 5 and class 6 handicaps – help! Remember the bookies have to price up every race but we as punters can remain selective
540 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Moheebb, 4/1 Grethel, 7/1 Mangano, 8/1 Zain, 10/1 Beaumont Boy, 12/1 Bert´s Memory, Chasing Memories, Chookie Hamilton, Grand Diamond, Papa´s Princess, 14/1 Just Dust, 40/1 Seteem.
Moheeb at 7/2 in the early morning prices is ok each way - a slight loss will accrue if placed
255 GOODWOOD
I will put up Lady Dedlock – a possible price mover – I should have made Classic Legend a nailed on each way bet yesterday at 22/1 winning and was gutted about that, especially the Betfair price! I don’t expect Lady Dedlock to follow suit but worth a small interest JUST IN CASE!
200 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Shabiba, 9/2 Spinning Lucy, 11/2 Elizabeth Swann, 12/1 Just Like A Woman, Meydan Princess, 14/1 Gaabal, Jennie Jerome, 20/1 Garland, Toasted Special, 25/1 Coloratura, Provence, Storyland, 33/1 Arcetri, Jamaali, 100/1 Ile Royale,
Elizabeth Swann each way could be a good bet here – I am hoping she is competitive for the place at least
TWIN CYCLES
No bet today
FOOTBALL
Well done Chelsea yesterday winning my asian handicap bet ( I’m sure that’s not the sole reason why they won the match!)
Today sees the UEFA Cup matches and, if the odds are right, then there are numerous mismatches
Will Blackburn overcome their shock first leg loss? I must admit they have been bad in Eurpoe – I’ve seen all their games thus far and won’t be touching them at 1/5.
Depending on which Spuds side is selected this evening ,they should face a relatively easy game of it. Unbackable at 1/3 the value will come in the Asians market again I would suspect

Tottenham -1.0
If Tottenham win by 2 or more £66.00
If Tottenham win by 1 £0.00
If Tottenham do not win -£100.00

To £100 stakes



This looks like a reasonable bet for me – I break even is the Spuds win by 1

3 OCTOBER

Lord Peter Flint – I think the technical term is – pissed it! Very impressive. Tobar Suil Lady was equally as impressive at 11/8 .Tropical Strait was superb at 8/11 and again won with ease – (why can’t every day’s winners win this comfortably?)

Hawksbury Heights an unlucky 4^th ,just outside the place payouts for each way, again Tsaroxy 4^th, Sea Admiral came 8^th, Atlantic Coast 3^rd at 7/2 and Fisher Bridge went backwards – poor day for each ways.

Break even in the Asians with a 1-0 to United. I predicted the correct score but selected the wrong asian bet, giving Roma +1 instead of Man Utd –0.5. It’s a learning curve!

PRICE GAPPERS

Very happy with yesterdays price gappers ,especially 2 maidens and a consistent handicapper

210 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Kiwi Bay, 7/2 Creative, 5/1 Moment´s Notice, 6/1 East Coast Girl, 10/1 Evette, 12/1 Emef Princess, 14/1 Montefiore, 16/1 Maid Of Lamancha, 40/1 Dolly No Hair, 66/1 Big Slick, 100/1 Howe´s Jack.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these set much of a standard on last-time-out form but KIWI BAY did a lot better the time before and is given another chance to fulfil that promise.[RA]

A no bet this one for me – a class 6 maiden and regressive form – 25 – the 5^th place was in another class 6 maiden. Price gap 5/4 - -- 7/2. You’ll get a good price relative to price gappers generally.

310 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Hamish McGonagall, 4/1 Drill Sergeant, 7/1 Cathedral Walk, 8/1 Island Music, 9/1 Power Desert, 10/1 Blindspin, Resounding Glory, 25/1 Princess Maria, 33/1 Bellas Chicas, Piccolo Pete, 50/1 Capone, Glamoroso, Senora´s Best.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAMISH MCGONAGALL was left with too much to do last time after trouble in running and still looks well capable of winning a race like this. Others have shown a bit of promise but the Johnston-trained newcomer Drill Sergeant is feared more.[RA]

POSITIVES – now 11/10 in the morning prices with 9/2 next best.. Has had 3 runs for this Hamish McGonagall

Clear form chance on close third in good Haydock maiden (first run for five months) early last month, giving the impression this extra furlong would suit; below-form favourite at Ayr 13 days ago but did not get the room to show what he was capable of andit looked as if he stayed; leading contender. maiden and had excuses last time for 4^th place.

NEGATIVES – a bit unnerving that the majority of price gappers appear in maidens. Here we have 3 debutants and 5 one time out runners open to improvement.

CONCLUSION – Kevin Darley in the plate, and I will chance at 11/10 especially, in the hope the horse gives his true running today in another unsuitable (ideally) race

350 NOTTINGHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Forsyte Saga, 4/1 Almamia, 6/1 Madame Hoi, 7/1 Ethereal Flame, 12/1 Secret Gem, Toll Gate, 16/1 Classic Legend, 20/1 Sendefaa, 25/1 Rahaan, 50/1 Italian Goddess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forsyte Saga sets the standard but was beaten by a 77-rated rival last time and could well be vulnerable to an above-average newcomer. The impeccably bred ALMAMIA, who's entered in next year's Irish Oaks, could be just that.[GW]

5/4 now this morning and 5/1 next best augers well for yet another maiden favourite. 2 second places on the trot .Spotlight tells us that Forsyte Saga “could well be vulnerable to an above average newcomer”

Forsyte Saga

Caught a live one in Sunday´s easy Ascot winner Ibn Khaldun on her debut and did nothing wrong from the front at Beverley last time; comes here in preference to a Group race at the weekend and sets the standard.

Ibn Khaldun has since proved to be a very smart horse so this form is a positive.

Already this morning Classic Legend is trading at 8/1 ( notice its betting forecast price)

In an ideal world Forsyte Saga would not be a bet, but I am taken by the analysis of her last 2 races, and against my better judgement will opt for the win here. I suspect the best bet will be the place only here. We simply don’t know how good the newcomers are, but Forsyte Saga has experience

200 SALISBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Doctor Fremantle, 5/1 Yathreb, 8/1 Desiderio, 10/1 Sleepy Hollow, 14/1 Banquet, High Dee Jay, Ragamuffin Man, Simone Martini, 16/1 Look Here, 20/1 Daddy´s Boy, 25/1 Zen Factor, 33/1 Slip, 50/1 Promised Gold, Tara´s Garden, 66/1 Bravo Bolivar, 100/1 Fort Hull.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Stoute 2yos are running well and DOCTOR FREMANTLE (nap) can give the stable a win in a division of this race for the third successive year. Yathreb did not progress as expected from his first race and will be pressed to confirm latest form with Sleepy Hollow

Doctor Fremantle is the nap of the meeting.

Doctor Fremantle

Dewhurst, Racing Post and Irish Derby entry who made a promising start when accounting for all except more experienced market rival Hawaana in 7f maiden at Leicester; form not really worked out but middle-distance pedigree suggests he will relish this step up in trip and he must be high on the list; stable won a division of this race for last two year

Future engagements suggest a good run expected.

NEGATIVES - a 16 runner maiden and a once raced short priced favourite – 6 debutants and 6 one time out runners make for a bet requiring a lot of faith in the favourite’s abilities.

Early morning price 8/13 - - - -5/1 is a positive that’s for sure but the question remains , do we want to back a one time out maiden against 15 others , 6 debutants and 6 one time out runners?

CONCLUSION – not for me this one – preference for the place only ,or an in running play for me - Good to soft ground doesn’t help make the case for Fremantle

230 SALISBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Meer Kat, 4/1 Aboriginie, 7/1 Huzzah, 8/1 Fiume, 10/1 Seventh Hill, 20/1 Driven, Karate Queen, 25/1 Daisy Nook, Mazara, 33/1 Cape Rock, Manyriverstocross, Mista Rossa, 50/1 Nemo Spirit, Sarah´s Boy, Whitcombe Spirit, 100/1 Veras Joy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only Huzzah of the form principals is proven on a soft surface, but he is relatively exposed and it may be worth chancing MEER KAT's ability to handle the conditions. His form looks very solid.[FC]

“IT may be worth chancing” – no thanks – I want to see much more confidence especially in a 16 runner maiden on good to soft!

555 SLIGO

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rinroe, 11/2 Conor´s Secret, 6/1 The Harrier Man, 8/1 Boleybawn Quikstar, 10/1 December Sun, 12/1 Mrs Brophy, Tip On, 14/1 Caher Lass, Leanne, 20/1 Arctic Mick, Dr Tenderfoot, 25/1 Galmon Error, Lakeshore Lodge, Livinginhope, Oyster Queen, Pipers Blaze,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RINROE should have the resources to win a maiden hurdle at this venue without the benefit of a recent outing or previous experience over hurdles

Heavy ground – no recent outing – or previous experience –maiden hurdle – arrrrghhhh! No thanks!

EACH WAY

Poor day yesterday with a couple of 4^th places losing the place payout on the each ways

820 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dart, 3/1 Trump Call, 4/1 Top Tiger, 5/1 Driving Miss Suzie, 9/1 Princess Danehill, 12/1 Yab Adee, 33/1 Ramvaswani, Stroppi Poppi, 50/1 Keagles, Versatile, 66/1 Pearl Of Esteem, 200/1 Balfour House.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRUMP CALL has been running well in better contests of late and gets the vote. Top Tiger has questions to answer but is entitled to be thereabouts on his best form, while Dart represents a jockey and trainer combination that has a 43% strike-rate this season (3-7) and is the potential improver.[SR

Dart now 4/1 ( can be seen as a negative) but if remaining at that price is a good each way bet for me, swayed by the mighty Kerrin MCEvoy in the plate – I was particularly taken by some of his rides recently

440 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kentucky Boy, 7/2 Hora, 6/1 Toboggan Lady, 10/1 Dansimar, Group Force, 14/1 Ergo, Hook Money, President Dan, 25/1 Blue Jet, Forrest Flyer, Foxxy, Troialini, 33/1 Currahee, Firestorm, 50/1 Starbougg.

Toboggan lady the obvious one for me here each way

Slim pickings due to the race types mostly, and ground concerns at Sligo and Salisbury

TWIN PROGRESSIVE CYCLES

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Redford, 15/8 Oberlin, 7/1 Al Mogeer, 10/1 Full Speed, Iron Cross, 25/1 Hyper Viper, Moscow Oznick, Social Spirit, 33/1 Endeavor, Laterly, 40/1 Eton Fable, Harrison´s Star, 50/1 Bouggler, Harlequinn Danseur, Jontobel, Larkfield.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Oberlin and REDFORD looked way above average last time out and could easily have this between them, with slight preference for Michael Bell's runner who showed his form on turf.[RA]

First 2 in the betting here should give us a run

FOOTY

Pity I chose the wrong asian handicap bet yesterday having forecast the 1-0 Man Utd – it’s a learning curve.

Tonight sees more Champions League action where, barring Lyon last night, generally backing the odds ons pays.

I am taken tonight by Schalke’s odds away to Rosenburg who held a Chelsea team full of problems to a draw. I’ll scratch that game from a form perspective and chance Schalke here. The obvious angle to play this game for me is to back with a view to trading in running if Schalke score first.

I can’t get an angle on the Valencia v Chelsea match – it won’t be a goal fest for the Londoners and perhaps a way into this match is via the Asians again. I think I’ll give Chelsea a half goal start

Chelsea +0&+0.5

If Chelsea win £98

If the match is a draw £49

If Valencia win -£100

for £100 standard stake

This is dependent on the team news for Chelski – I would want to see Drogba in the team, along with Terry, Shaun Wright Phillips as well. It’s a bit of a risk given the current predicament at Chelsea but we’re hoping for a draw in what will be a tense affair and , results going tits up, a goodbye to Avram “ taxi for Mr.” Grant