Monday, 5 November 2007

5/11

Poet came nowhere,and Cativo came 4th beaten a shd, nk, shd - yes v close
Al Aquabah won at 4/1 for the each ways, Imperial Amber unplaced ( another 7 runner event -should really stick to 3 the place races)
PRICE GAPPERS
130 Plumpton
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Bon Viveur, 4/1 Hansomelle, 15/2 Ohana, 8/1 Amble Forge, 14/1 Chances Go, Lady Pilot, Matarazzo, 33/1 Postmaster, Sumdancer, 50/1 Champion De Sou, Lady Duxyana, Napoletano, Samerous, 100/1 Pulborough .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BON VIVEUR (nap) is going to be hard to beat, coming back in class under conditions that should be ideal for him. Hansomelle looks the best alternative.[AWJ]
"is going to be hard to beat" and napped and okayish price gap. HAndsomelle is a little close for my liking
A 14 runner maiden hurdle with many debutuants is perhaps not the ideal race type, but I will have Bon Viveur today based on the confidence
110 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mutual Friend, 5/1 Stagehand, Star Of Memory, 6/1 Road To Recovery, 8/1 Approved Force, 12/1 Foreign King, 20/1 Homecroft Boy, 25/1 Hanbrin Bhoy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Star Of Memory is no doubt capable of better than he showed in France last time this looks destined for MUTUAL FRIEND
"looks destined for" but Mutual Friend is one of 3 who are debuting today - how can this be destined for him if he hasn't been proven yet? It's stable reputation. This is the trouble with the early part of the jumps campaign - relative unknowns from big stables at short prices
EACH WAY
Continue well with a 4/1 winner yesterday and an unplaced in a 2 the place race - should stick to 8+ runner fields to maximise chances of horses placing at least
340 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Paddy The Optimist, 7/2 Ashgreen, Earcomesannie, 4/1 Lets Go Dutch, 8/1 Dun Drinan, 16/1 Amazing Valour, Rash Moment, 25/1 Pure Brief .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lets Go Dutch and Paddy The Optimist will rightly have their supporters but they have to concede weight to the four-year younger EARCOMESANNIE who can gain an overdue first success in an interesting handicap chase.[AM]
4 horses between 3/1 and 4/1 - I'll chance Let's go dutch each way in the hope he can place at least
320 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Magroom, 4/1 Fowey, Tri Chara, 11/2 Prince Noel, 7/1 Alexander Guru, 8/1 Krakatau, 16/1 Fish Called Johnny, 20/1 Fine Ruler, Tommy Tobougg, 25/1 Joyful Tears.
6 before the 16/1 should fight out for the 3 places - I'll opt for Prince Noel purely because he is in the centre of the list

Bon Viveur I will chose today as the sole Price gapper, putting my faith in the drop in class and the positive spotlight comment.
I hope the each ways will place at least.
No dutches today given the compact betting markets in largely small fields

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